"Stakes couldn't be higher": Democrats warn their majorities are at risk in swing-state legislatures

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</script> <script async src="https://securepubads.g.doubleclick.net/tag/js/gpt.js"></script> <script> if(window.salon_config.live_ads == 0) { console.log('ad-free user'); } else{ // Create the ad project var ads_project = (function(sent_in_settings){ var is_mobile = (document.innerWidth <= 768) ? true : false; //default settings var setting_defaults = { "adx" : "yes", "groupname" : "", "is_testing" : "no", "split_testing" : "0", "send_reports" : "0", "logging_turned_on": "false", "site_name" : "site_name", "report_url" : "", "page_template" : "", "sticky_slot_names": [] } // Combine defaults with sent in parameters var project_settings = {...setting_defaults, ...sent_in_settings}; /*************************************** --------------- AD CODE --------------- ***************************************/ // Variables for refresh logic (sticky) var refresh = true; var sticky_refresh_counter = 1; var refresh_timer; var global_ad_slot_name = ""; var global_bidder_name = ""; var last_refresh_time = ""; var unfilled_count = 0; window.htlbid = window.htlbid || {}; htlbid.cmd = htlbid.cmd || []; htlbid.cmd.push(function() { htlbid.layout('universal'); if(project_settings.groupname != "") htlbid.setTargeting("groupname", project_settings.groupname); if(project_settings.page_template != "") htlbid.setTargeting("page_template", project_settings.page_template); htlbid.setTargeting("adx", project_settings.adx); htlbid.setTargeting('is_testing', project_settings.is_testing); htlbid.setTargeting('split_testing', project_settings.split_testing); htlbid.setTargeting('website', project_settings.site_name); // On slot rendering (or unfilled) googletag.pubads().addEventListener('slotRenderEnded', function(event){ var slot_targeting = event.slot.getTargetingMap(); var bidder_name, size = 0; // If it's empty, no bids? var cpm = (slot_targeting["hb_pb"]) ? slot_targeting["hb_pb"][0] : 0; // In case there is no size from anywhere if(event.size && event.size.length > 0) size = event.size[0]+"x"+event.size[1]; // Either Amazon/ADX or Unfilled if(event.advertiserId != 5280547887){ if(event.advertiserId == 4467125037){ bidder_name = "adx"; if(cpm == 0) cpm = 0.11; } else if(event.advertiserId == 5279698200){ bidder_name = "amazon"; if(cpm == 0) cpm = 0.11; } else if(event.advertiserId == 5291323376) bidder_name = "house"; else if(!event.advertiserId || event.isEmpty) bidder_name = "unfilled"; else bidder_name = "unknown"; if(bidder_name != "unknown" && bidder_name != "unfilled") output_logging("ADX/Amazon bid report"); else output_logging("unknown/unfilled bid report"); } // Bidder won the auction else{ output_logging("Bidders bid report"); bidder_name = (slot_targeting["hb_bidder"]) ? slot_targeting["hb_bidder"][0] : "unknown"; } var slot = { "slotName" : validate_value(event.slot.getAdUnitPath().replace("/1026302/", ""), "string", 50), "cpm" : validate_value(parseFloat(cpm), "number"), "bidder" : validate_value(bidder_name, "string", 50), "size" : validate_value(size, "string", 50), "adUnitCode": validate_value(event.slot.getSlotId().getDomId(), "string", 50), "empty" : validate_value(event.isEmpty, "boolean") }; var slot_tracking = Object.assign({}, page_tracking_data); // Override ad-unit with this ad unit to send reporting data slot_tracking.ad_unit = slot; // Loggin out bid report output_logging(slot_tracking); output_logging(slot_tracking.ad_unit.slotName + " "+ slot_tracking.ad_unit.bidder + ", "+ slot_tracking.ad_unit.cpm); if(project_settings.send_reports == "1"){ try{ // Send actual bid report send_bid_report(slot_tracking); } catch(e){ output_logging("Bid report error"); } } // Sticky changes if(project_settings.sticky_slot_names.includes(slot_tracking.ad_unit.slotName)){ // Check if the bidder is one of these bidders, if so, hide the sticky container if(["gumgum", "kargo", "unknown", "unfilled"].includes(bidder_name)){ document.getElementById("outer_sticky").style.display = "none"; } // All other bidders use our sticky container, show it else{ document.getElementById("outer_sticky").style.display = ""; } // Unfilled slot if(bidder_name == "unfilled"){ unfilled_count++; // Stop refreshing after 3 unfilled impressions if(unfilled_count >= 3){ refresh = false; console.log("Refreshed turned off after 3 unfilled impressions"); } } // Reset unfilled count if it's not in a row else if(bidder_name != "house") unfilled_count = 0; // Start refresh check after every sticky ad has been filled (refreshed) start_refresh(slot_tracking.ad_unit.adUnitCode, bidder_name); } }); }); // Functions for Refresh function start_refresh(ad_slot_name, bidder_name){ // Remove old listener before adding a new one document.removeEventListener("visibilitychange", visibility_change_logic); // Stop here if we don't need to refresh the sticky (or max number of refreshes has been reached) if(!refresh || sticky_refresh_counter > 10){ output_logging("no timer needed"); refresh = false; return; } global_ad_slot_name = ad_slot_name; global_bidder_name = bidder_name; document.addEventListener("visibilitychange", visibility_change_logic); output_logging('refresh timer started'); // Use 35 second tracker on mobile, 40 on desktop if(is_mobile) refresh_timer = refresh_timer_tracker(35, refresh_sticky); else refresh_timer = refresh_timer_tracker(40, refresh_sticky); } // Logic for visibility change function visibility_change_logic(){ // Pause refresh timer if(document.hidden){ refresh_timer.pause() } // Start refresh timer else if(refresh){ refresh_timer.resume(); } } // Timer ended, do refresh function refresh_sticky(){ // If you aren't supposed to refresh output_logging('refresh timer ended'); refresh_timer.delete(); // Kargo if(global_bidder_name == "kargo"){ //close if Kargo container exists, otherwise don't refresh (must have been manually closed) if(window.Kargo) Kargo.CreativeRegister.getCreativesOfType('Hover')[0].destroy(); else refresh = false; } // Gumgum else if(global_bidder_name == "gumgum") { //close if GumGum container exists, otherwise don't refresh (must have been manually closed) if(document.getElementById("GG_PXS") && document.getElementById("GG_PXS").parentNode){ document.getElementById("GG_PXS").parentNode.remove(); } else refresh = false; } // Ogury else if(global_bidder_name == "ogury"){ if(document.getElementById("ogy-ad-slot")){ window.top.dispatchEvent(new Event('ogy_hide')); if(document.getElementById("ogy-ad-slot")) document.getElementById("ogy-ad-slot").remove(); } else refresh=false; } // Refresh slot (if container wasn't manually closed) if(refresh){ sticky_refresh_counter++; //safeguards (max refresh check, minimum time between refreshes) if(sticky_refresh_counter > 12){ refresh = false; refresh_timer.delete(); document.removeEventListener("visibilitychange", visibility_change_logic); return; } if(last_refresh_time != ""){ var current_time = new Date().getTime(); var diff_time = current_time - last_refresh_time; if(diff_time<(30*1000)){ output_logging(diff_time + " less than 30 seconds since last refresh, something wrong with timer"); refresh = false; refresh_timer.delete(); document.removeEventListener("visibilitychange", visibility_change_logic); return; } } last_refresh_time = new Date().getTime(); output_logging("slot "+global_ad_slot_name+" refreshed"); var sticky_refresh_counter_display = (sticky_refresh_counter < 10) ? "0"+sticky_refresh_counter : sticky_refresh_counter; if(document.getElementById('sticky_ad_container')) document.getElementById('sticky_ad_container').dataset.targeting="{\"sticky_refresh\":\""+sticky_refresh_counter_display+"\"}"; htlbid.forceRefresh([global_ad_slot_name]); } else{ output_logging('no refresh - container must have been closed') } } // Force close sticky area function close_sticky(){ document.getElementById('outer_sticky').remove(); refresh = false; output_logging('refresh timer ended'); refresh_timer.delete(); } /*************************************** ------------ REPORTING CODE ------------ ***************************************/ // Get $_GET variables var uri = decodeURIComponent(window.location.search.substring(1)).split('&'); var get_vars = {}; for(var x = 0; x < uri.length; x++){ var parts = uri[x].split('='); get_vars[parts[0]] = parts[1]; } // UTM options we track var utm_vars = [ 'utm_medium', 'utm_source', 'utm_campaign', 'utm_term', 'utm_content', 'utm_template', 'utm_referrer', 'utm_adset', 'utm_subid', 'gclid', 'fbclid' ]; var utm_confirmed = {}, this_utm_var; // See if any UTM variables are defined in the query parameters or session storage utm_vars.forEach(function(utm_var){ // (can be blank, so check for null (not set)) if(sessionStorage.getItem(utm_var) !== null) this_utm_var = sessionStorage.getItem(utm_var); else{ this_utm_var = (typeof get_vars[utm_var] == 'undefined') ? 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<input type="hidden" name="hidden_post_id" id="hidden_post_id" value="15061010" /> <input type="hidden" name="hidden_rating_status" id="hidden_rating_status" value="hide" /> <input type="hidden" name="hidden_post_year" id="hidden_post_year" value="2024" /> <main id="posts"> <div class="in_brief_article" data-url="2024/10/11/stakes-couldnt-be-higher-democrats-warn-their-majorities-are-at-risk-in-swing-state-legislatures/" data-title=""Stakes couldn't be higher": Democrats warn their majorities are at risk in swing-state legislatures" data-authors="Nicholas Liu" data-sections="All Salon, News & Politics"> <section class="main-content no-gutters"> <section class="article_outer_wrapper"> <div class="scroll-posts" id="2024/10/11/stakes-couldnt-be-higher-democrats-warn-their-majorities-are-at-risk-in-swing-state-legislatures/"> <section class="title-container">  <div class="article_badge_wrapper"> </div> <h1>"Stakes couldn't be higher": Democrats warn their majorities are at risk in swing-state legislatures</h1> <h2>Democrats could lose majorities in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, even if Kamala Harris wins in November</h2>  <section class="writer-container writer-app-wrapper"> <div class="writer_info_wrapper"> <div class="writer_box"> <div class="writer_name_box"> <h3 class="writer_name"><span>By </span> <a href="/writer/nicholas-liu">Nicholas Liu</a> </h3> <span class="top_writer_desc">News Fellow</span> </div> </div> <div class="published_date">  <h3 class="publish_date"> Published October 11, 2024 8:44AM (EDT) </h6> </div> </div> </section> </section> <section class="cover-wrapper"> <img id="cover-main" class="image_position_top" srcset="https://mediaproxy.salon.com/width/600/https://media2.salon.com/2024/10/joanna_mcclinton_2160625906.jpg 600w, https://mediaproxy.salon.com/width/960/https://media2.salon.com/2024/10/joanna_mcclinton_2160625906.jpg 960w, https://mediaproxy.salon.com/width/1200/https://media2.salon.com/2024/10/joanna_mcclinton_2160625906.jpg 1200w" sizes="100vw" src="https://mediaproxy.salon.com/width/1200/https://media2.salon.com/2024/10/joanna_mcclinton_2160625906.jpg" alt="143rd Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives Joanna E. McClinton is seen during Celebration Of Freedom Ceremony at Independence Hall on July 04, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Gilbert Carrasquillo/GC Images/Getty Images)"> </section> <strong class="article_img_desc"> 143rd Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives Joanna E. 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adCount++; var ad_display_count = ((adCount < 10) ? "0"+adCount : adCount); if(ad_ending_name == "food") name = "salon_m_incontent_food"; else name = "salon_m_incontent_article"; // Add the ad unit to the page document.write("<div class=\"outer-ad-unit-wrapper\" id=\"outer_ad_unit_"+adCount+"\"><span class=\"ad-caption\">Advertisement:</span><div class=\"htlad-"+name+"\" data-targeting='{\"slot_number\": \""+ad_display_count+"\"}'></div></div>"); } </script> <p><span>The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee</span>, an arm of the party that supports candidates in state legislative races, is performing the biannual ritual of warning activists and voters that a single-minded focus on federal races risks losses for the party down-ballot.</p> <p>In a memo released Thursday, the DLCC said that even success at the top of the ticket might not stave off the loss of <a href="https://www.salon.com/2022/11/17/democrats-make-history-with-state-level-gains--and-that-could-be-crucial-for-democracy/" target="_blank">hard-won majorities</a> in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, nor guarantee victory in Wisconsin, Arizona and New Hampshire, where Democrats are hoping to win majorities for the first time in years.</p> <p><span>"</span><span>The consequences of the 2024 elections will change the landscape of freedoms and rights for tens of millions of Americans — the stakes couldn’t be higher. But there’s still a critical window to overcome the challenges posed by ballot roll-off," the memo said, referring to the tendency of some voters to "roll off" the rest of the ballot after filling out the races near the top.</span></p> <p><span>Federal races generally receive much greater attention than their state legislative counterparts. But the tendency to leave part of the ballot blank is one that affects Democratic voters far more than it does Republicans. According to <a href="https://sisterdistrict.com/rolloff/" target="_blank">data compiled by the Sister District Project</a>, only 37% of 2020 GOP candidates under-performed former President <a href="https://www.salon.com/topic/donald_trump" target="_blank">Donald Trump</a>, while 80% of Democratic candidates trailed President Joe Biden by as much as 4%. </span></p> <div class="layout_template_wrapper"> <div class="related_article"> <p class="related_text">Related</p> <div class="related_link"><a href="https://www.salon.com/2022/07/06/progressives-must-take-the-fight-to-the-states-thats-now-the-only-way-to-win/" target="_blank">Progressives: Take the fight to the states, right now. It's the only way to win</a></div> </div> </div> <p><span>Internal data by the DLCC shows that the 2024 election is gliding along a similar trajectory to 2020, where Biden won decisively over Trump but failed to protect the party from losing over 100 state legislative seats and two chamber majorities.</span></p> <p><span>Former President Barack Obama faced similar difficulties in his 2012 re-election bid. Democrats recovered in 2022 and early 2023 to snatch narrow majorities in the Minnesota Senate, the Pennsylvania House and both chambers of the Michigan state legislature, with many key races being decided by less than a hundred votes. Democrats now hold the advantage in the Pennsylvania House by just one seat, while the Minnesota Senate is evenly divided after a vacancy;</span> money spent on races like those is far more impactful than an equivalent amount added to Vice President <a href="https://www.salon.com/topic/kamala_harris" target="_blank">Kamala Harris</a>' $540 million campaign pile.</p> <p>All of those flipped chambers are at risk of falling into Republican hands, especially if Democrats fail to overcome historic problems of ballot roll-off and a large funding gap to reach a $60 million budget the DLCC estimates is needed to keep the party's hopes alive. The Democratic-controlled Minnesota House and both chambers of the Alaska legislature (where some Democrats coalition with Republicans to form a majority) are also on the line, while Republicans are fighting to hold on to their two-seat majorities in the Arizona House and Senate and both chambers in the New Hampshire legislature. Though the Minnesota Senate is not up for regular elections this year, a special election scheduled for November will decide control.</p> <p><span>To push Democratic candidates over the line, </span><span>the DLCC and its allies are pouring money into key states to support candidates with TV, mail and digital ads. But the Democratic group, which has raised $35 million this cycle as of the end of Q2, has a <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/369878/kamala-harris-fundraising-transfer-state-legislature-abortion?link_id=2&can_id=3af8d5f25b187e749e5be2ca097a0ed0&source=email-release-dlcc-announces-michigan-target-races-and-additional-500k-investment-to-defend-democratic-trifecta&email_referrer=email_2439675&email_subject=icymi-vox-highlights-the-power-of-investing-in-state-legislative-races" target="_blank">long way to achieving parity</a> with the Republican State Leadership Committee, which has raised $62 million. </span>The DLCC stressed that while there is still time to turn things around, the window is closing, and when it does, even a Harris White House cannot easily overcome the passage of GOP laws at the state level.</p> <p>"<span>The rights of tens of millions of Americans rest in our state legislatures, and as Donald Trump desperately tries to win back the White House, we know his MAGA allies are <a href="http://How the states went nuts: Democratic backsliding in state capitals — and how to defeat it" target="_blank">on the march</a> in the states," the memo concluded. "Investing in state legislatures to build Democratic power is the strongest way to defend our future."</span></p> <div class="layout_template_wrapper read_more"> <div class="red_white_box"> <p class="red_box">Read more</p> <p class="white_box">about the 2024 campaign</p> </div> <ul> <li><strong><a href="https://www.salon.com/2023/05/09/control-democrats-in-state-legislatures/" target="_blank">Republicans weaponize statehouse rules to disenfranchise voters</a></strong></li> <li><a href="https://www.salon.com/2022/08/24/democrats-have-seized-the-momentum--now-that-needs-to-flow-down-ballot/" target="_blank"><strong>Democrats have seized the momentum — now that needs to flow down-ballot</strong></a></li> <li><a href="https://www.salon.com/2021/04/24/bills-targeting-local-officials-who-resisted-trump-could-allow-gop-to-overturn-election-results/" target="_blank"><strong>Bills targeting local officials who resisted Trump could allow GOP to "overturn election results"</strong></a></li> </ul> </div> </article> <script> //makes premium article visible for ad free users if(getCookie('salon_ad_free_user')){ let hiddenParagraphs = document.getElementsByClassName('hidden-paragraph'); for(let i = 0; i < hiddenParagraphs.length; i++){ hiddenParagraphs[i].setAttribute("style",""); } if(document.getElementsByClassName("ad_paid-content") && document.getElementsByClassName("ad_paid-content")[0]) document.getElementsByClassName("ad_paid-content")[0].setAttribute("style","display: none;"); //removes paragraphs content from dom if not ad free }else{ let hiddenParagraphs = document.getElementsByClassName('hidden-paragraph'); for(let i = 0; i < hiddenParagraphs.length; i++){ hiddenParagraphs[i].innerHTML = ""; } } </script> <script> function insert_ad(adCount, paragraph, adName, playlist = "salon_featured", abTest = "control"){ if(playlist.length == 0) playlist = "salon_featured"; // Video ad unit if(adName == "video_proper"){ //creates video player ad let adUnit = document.createElement('div'); adUnit.setAttribute("data-video-id", `salon-playlist-${playlist}`); adUnit.setAttribute("data-video-url", ""); adUnit.setAttribute("data-mpd-url", ""); adUnit.setAttribute("data-hls-url", ""); adUnit.setAttribute("id", "salon_main_video"); let adScript = document.createElement('script'); adScript.innerHTML = `salon_videos_commands.push(function(){ new_video_project.start_video_player_creation("salon_main_video"); });`; adUnit.append(adScript); let adLabel = document.createElement("span"); adLabel.innerHTML = "Advertisement:" adLabel.setAttribute("class","proper-caption"); adWrapper = document.createElement("div"); adWrapper.setAttribute("class","outer-ad-unit-wrapper"); adWrapper.appendChild(adLabel); adWrapper.appendChild(adUnit); // Insert into DOM paragraph.parentNode.insertBefore(adWrapper, paragraph.nextSibling); } // Video ad unit // Keep in case we need it back? 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He grew up in Hong Kong, earned a B.A. in History at the University of Chicago, and began writing for local publications like the Santa Barbara Independent and Straus News Manhattan.</p> <strong>MORE FROM <a href="/writer/nicholas-liu">Nicholas Liu</a></strong> </div> </section>   <hr> <script> adCount++; var ad_display_count = ((adCount < 10) ? 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"Stakes couldn't be higher": Democrats warn their majorities are at risk in swing-state legislatures | Salon.com