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data-ga="click-topSearches-7|https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/michael-schumachers-first-appearance-in-11-years-mobile-phones-were-not-allowed/articleshow/113967289.cms" ga4Data="[object Object]" frmappuse="1">Michael Schumacher</a></span></div></div></div></div></div><button data-role="none" class="undefined undefined slick-arrow slick-next" style="display:block" currentSlide="0" slideCount="7" aria-label="right align"></button></div></div></div><div class="pZFl7"><h1 class="HNMDR" data-ua-type="1" onclick="stpPgtnAndPrvntDefault(event)"><span>Will Kamala Harris's lead hold? US poll 'Nostradamus' says October surprise will ...</span></h1><div class="t8vf3 byline_action"><div class="xf8Pm byline"><a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toireporter/author-TOI-World-Desk-479263449.cms" rel="noopener" frmappuse="1">TOI World Desk</a> / TIMESOFINDIA.COM / <span> Oct 7, 2024, 08:42 IST</span></div><div class="eg6hg" data-socialshare="113997881"><div class="okf2Z"><div class="nSsMM "><div class="CfcTh icon_share_wrap"><div class="LaAfQ"><i class="ZvS34 "></i><span>Share</span></div></div><a href="/articleshowprint/113997881.cms" class="p4Wx3" rel="noopener" title="print article" data-ga="WEB-articleshowv2|click|atf_print" ga4Data="[object Object]" frmappuse="1"></a><div class="MRCIT "><span>AA</span><div class="s9FOM"><button type="button" class="lTLxG">+</button><strong>Text Size</strong><ul><li class="" data-ga="WEB-articleshowv2|click|atfSize_small">Small</li><li class="gfVb7" data-ga="WEB-articleshowv2|click|atfSize_medium">Medium</li><li class="" data-ga="WEB-articleshowv2|click|atfSize_large">Large</li></ul></div></div></div><div class="undefined V5EgZ"><a href="https://news.google.com/publications/CAAqBwgKMM6y_Qowwu70Ag" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" frmappuse="1">Follow us <i></i></a></div></div></div></div></div><div class="clearfix"></div><div class="JuyWl CpKyX"><div class="vSlIC "><div class="heightCalc"><div class="art_synopsis"><div data-type="in_view" class=" "><div class="tCKCr id-r-synopsis"><div class="faiOF"><div class="WEwSo"><div class="M1rHh undefined" data-ua-type="1" onclick="stpPgtnAndPrvntDefault(event)">Allan Lichtman, a renowned political analyst known for accurate predictions, asserts that the 2024 Presidential election results will not be influenced by an 'October surprise.' He predicts Kamala Harris's victory, highlighting the elections' reliance on big-picture factors rather than campaign events.</div></div></div></div></div></div><div data-articlebody="1" class="fewcent-113997881 js_tbl_article"><div class="_s30J clearfix "><div class="MwN2O"> <div class="T22zO"><section class="D3Wk1 clearfix id-r-component leadmedia undefined undefined VtlfQ" style="top:0px"><div class="D3Wk1" data-ua-type="1" onclick="stpPgtnAndPrvntDefault(event)"><div class="zPaFh"><div class="wJnIp"><img src="https://static.toiimg.com/thumb/msid-113998322,imgsize-58684,width-400,resizemode-4/113998322.jpg" alt="Will Kamala Harris's lead hold? US poll 'Nostradamus' says October surprise will ..." decoding="async" fetchpriority="high"/></div></div></div></section></div> </div>In a razor-thin election race, political analyst Allan Lichtman, renowned for his accurate predictions, has asserted that the upcoming polls for the 2024 Presidential election will remain unaffected by the so-called "October surprise." <br/>Lichtman, co-founder of the "13 Keys to the White House" system, said, “One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise.<div id="poll-widget"><div class="ge4Md " style="overflow:hidden;transition:height 0.3s ease;min-height:209px"><div data-type="in_view" class="loadable-inview "><div><span class="UzraQ null"><span class="aQKeu loadeblecomponentloader"></span></span></div></div></div></div>I have never changed my prediction in response to such events because the keys gauge the big picture of the incumbent government’s strength and don’t sway by campaign happenings.”<br/>Lichtman, who has forecasted the outcomes of nearly every US presidential election over the past fifty years— except the controversial 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore—has confidently predicted that <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/kamala-harris" styleObj="[object Object]" class="" frmappuse="1">Kamala Harris</a> will emerge victorious in 2024.<br/>Lichtman holds a Ph.D. from Harvard University, focusing on modern American history and quantitative methods. He is a distinguished professor at the American University in Washington, DC, and has authored 13 books alongside numerous academic articles. <br/><div class="js_tbl_2ad"></div><div class="mgid_second_mrec_parent"><div id="taboola-mid-article-thumbnails-113997881" class="wdt-taboola" data-target_type="mix" data-mode="thumbnails-mid" data-placement="Mid Article Thumbnails 1" data-pagetype="article" style="max-height:415px;overflow:hidden" data-ua-type="2" onclick="stpPgtn(event)"></div></div>Since joining the race in late July, Harris has consistently led national polling averages against former President <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/donald-trump" styleObj="[object Object]" class="" frmappuse="1">Donald Trump</a>. Following a highly publicised debate in Pennsylvania on September 10, which attracted over 67 million viewers, Harris’s lead increased from 2.5 percentage points on the day of the debate to 3.3 points a week later. This gain was accompanied by a slight decline in Trump’s polling average, which fell by half a percentage point.<br/>While national polls can provide insights into candidate popularity, they may not be definitive indicators of election outcomes due to the US electoral college system. With 538 electoral votes up for grabs—requiring 270 for victory—most states tend to vote predictably along party lines, leaving only a handful of battleground states to ultimately decide the election.<br/></div><div class="js_tbl_readmore_btn" data-ua-type="1" onclick="stpPgtn(event)"></div></div><div class="authorComment js_tblreadmore_hide"><div class="OtxlN" id="auhtor_widget"><div class="f2VrG"><div class="Mn6kH"><div data-pos="0" class="id-r-component QbQNS undefined "><div><img alt="author" msid="" width="" title="" placeholdersrc="https://static.toiimg.com/photo/83033472.cms" imgsize="23456" resizemode="4" offsetvertical="0" placeholdermsid="" type="thumb" src="https://static.toiimg.com/photo/83033472.cms" class="" data-src="https://static.toiimg.com/photo/63379366.cms" data-api-prerender="true"/></div></div></div><div class="kgcOp"><div><h5>About the Author</h5><a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toireporter/author-TOI-World-Desk-479263449.cms" class="mMwSH" frmappuse="1">TOI World Desk</a></div></div></div><div id="author_desc" class="GE1a7 oJgW0 "><p>At TOI World Desk, our dedicated team of seasoned journalists and passionate writers tirelessly sifts through the vast tapestry of global events to bring you the latest news and diverse perspectives round the clock. With an unwavering commitment to accuracy, depth, and timeliness, we strive to keep you informed about the ever-evolving world, delivering a nuanced understanding of international affairs to our readers. Join us on a journey across continents as we unravel the stories that shape our interconnected world.<button class="Wcsek">Read More</button></p></div></div><div class=""><div class="ge4Md " style="min-height:75px"><div data-type="in_view" class="loadable-inview "><div><span class="UzraQ null"><span class="aQKeu loadeblecomponentloader"></span></span></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mj2wg"><span class="YdEiy">End of Article</span></div><div class="_MxBD"><div id="taboola-below-article-thumbnails-113997881" class="wdt-taboola" data-target_type="mix" data-mode="thumbnails-below" data-placement="Below Article Thumbnails 1" data-pagetype="article" data-ua-type="2" onclick="stpPgtn(event)"></div></div><div class="XAt75" data-bottomsocialshare="113997881"><span class="hY_wX">FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA</span><div class="ge4Md " style="min-height:24px"><div data-type="in_view" class="loadable-inview "><div><span class="UzraQ follow_us_loader"><span class="aQKeu 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US poll 'Nostradamus' says October surprise will ...","url":"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/will-kamala-harriss-lead-hold-us-poll-nostradamus-says-october-surprise-will-/articleshow/113997881.cms"}</script><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","articleBody":"In a razor-thin election race, political analyst Allan Lichtman, renowned for his accurate predictions, has asserted that the upcoming polls for the 2024 Presidential election will remain unaffected by the so-called \"October surprise.\" Lichtman, co-founder of the \"13 Keys to the White House\" system, said, “One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to such events because the keys gauge the big picture of the incumbent government’s strength and don’t sway by campaign happenings.”Lichtman, who has forecasted the outcomes of nearly every US presidential election over the past fifty years— except the controversial 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore—has confidently predicted that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious in 2024.Lichtman holds a Ph.D. from Harvard University, focusing on modern American history and quantitative methods. He is a distinguished professor at the American University in Washington, DC, and has authored 13 books alongside numerous academic articles. Since joining the race in late July, Harris has consistently led national polling averages against former President Donald Trump. Following a highly publicised debate in Pennsylvania on September 10, which attracted over 67 million viewers, Harris’s lead increased from 2.5 percentage points on the day of the debate to 3.3 points a week later. This gain was accompanied by a slight decline in Trump’s polling average, which fell by half a percentage point.While national polls can provide insights into candidate popularity, they may not be definitive indicators of election outcomes due to the US electoral college system. With 538 electoral votes up for grabs—requiring 270 for victory—most states tend to vote predictably along party lines, leaving only a handful of battleground states to ultimately decide the election.","@type":"NewsArticle","mainEntityOfPage":"https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/will-kamala-harriss-lead-hold-us-poll-nostradamus-says-october-surprise-will-/articleshow/113997881.cms","inLanguage":"en","headline":"Will Kamala Harris's lead hold? 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