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</div> <div class="control"> <button class="button is-small is-link">Go</button> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> <ol class="breathe-horizontal" start="1"> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.15584">arXiv:2503.15584</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.15584">pdf</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="General Economics">econ.GN</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Assessing Fiscal Policy Effectiveness on Household Savings in Hungary, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic during the COVID-19 Crisis: A Markov Switching VAR Approach </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Mamun%2C+T+G+M+A">Tuhin G M Al Mamun</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2503.15584v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted household consumption, savings, and income across Europe, particularly affecting countries like Hungary, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic. This study investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policies in mitigating these impacts, focusing on government interventions such as spending, subsidies, revenue, and debt. Utilizing a Markov Switching Vector Auto… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2503.15584v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2503.15584v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2503.15584v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted household consumption, savings, and income across Europe, particularly affecting countries like Hungary, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic. This study investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policies in mitigating these impacts, focusing on government interventions such as spending, subsidies, revenue, and debt. Utilizing a Markov Switching Vector Auto regression (MS-VAR) model, the study examines data from 2000 to 2023, considering three economic regimes: the initial shock, the peak crisis, and the recovery phase. The results indicate that the COVID-19 shock led to a sharp decline in household consumption and income in all three countries, with Slovenia facing the most severe immediate impact. Hungary, however, showed the strongest recovery, driven by effective fiscal measures such as subsidies and increased government spending, which significantly boosted both household consumption and income. The Czech Republic demonstrated a more gradual recovery, with improvements observed in future-oriented consumption (IMPC). In conclusion, the study underscores the critical role of targeted fiscal interventions in mitigating the adverse effects of crises. The findings suggest that governments should prioritize timely and targeted fiscal policies to support household financial stability during economic downturns and ensure long-term recovery. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2503.15584v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2503.15584v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 19 March, 2025; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> March 2025. </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14946">arXiv:2503.14946</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.14946">pdf</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Econometrics">econ.EM</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Has the Paris Agreement Shaped Emission Trends? A Panel VECM Analysis of Energy, Growth, and CO$_2$ in 106 Middle-Income Countries </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Mamun%2C+T+G+M+A">Tuhin G. M. Al Mamun</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Ehsanullah"> Ehsanullah</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Hassan%2C+M+S">Md. Sharif Hassan</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Amin%2C+M+B">Mohammad Bin Amin</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Ol%C3%A1h%2C+J">Judit Ol谩h</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2503.14946v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Rising CO$_2$ emissions remain a critical global challenge, particularly in middle-income countries where economic growth drives environmental degradation. This study examines the long-run and short-run relationships between CO$_2$ emissions, energy use, GDP per capita, and population across 106 middle-income countries from 1980 to 2023. Using a Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), we asses… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2503.14946v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2503.14946v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2503.14946v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Rising CO$_2$ emissions remain a critical global challenge, particularly in middle-income countries where economic growth drives environmental degradation. This study examines the long-run and short-run relationships between CO$_2$ emissions, energy use, GDP per capita, and population across 106 middle-income countries from 1980 to 2023. Using a Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), we assess the impact of the Paris Agreement (2015) on emissions while conducting cointegration tests to confirm long-run equilibrium relationships. The findings reveal a strong long-run relationship among the variables, with energy use as the dominant driver of emissions, while GDP per capita has a moderate impact. However, the Paris Agreement has not significantly altered emissions trends in middle-income economies. Granger causality tests indicate that energy use strongly causes emissions, but GDP per capita and population do not exhibit significant short-run causal effects. Variance decomposition confirms that energy shocks have the most persistent effects, and impulse response functions (IRFs) show emissions trajectories are primarily shaped by economic activity rather than climate agreements. Robustness checks, including autocorrelation tests, polynomial root stability, and Yamagata-Pesaran slope homogeneity tests, validate model consistency. These results suggest that while global agreements set emissions reduction goals, their effectiveness remains limited without stronger national climate policies, sectoral energy reforms, and financial incentives for clean energy adoption to ensure sustainable economic growth. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2503.14946v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2503.14946v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 24 March, 2025; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 19 March, 2025; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> March 2025. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">28</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.12178">arXiv:2503.12178</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.12178">pdf</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="General Economics">econ.GN</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Public Sector Efficiency in Delivering Social Services and Its Impact on Human Development: A Comparative Study of Healthcare and Education Spending in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Mamun%2C+T+G+M+A">Tuhin G. M. Al Mamun</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Abdur%2C+R+M">Rahim Md. Abdur</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Hassan%2C+M+S">Md. Sharif Hassan</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Amin%2C+M+B">Mohammad Bin Amin</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Ol%C3%A1h%2C+J">Judit Ol谩h</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2503.12178v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> The research investigates the effects of public spending on health and education in shaping the human development in south Asian three countries: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The study uses the VAR (Vector Auto regression) model to estimate the effects on government spending on these sectors to evaluate the human development. The findings state that there are different degrees of impact in thes… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2503.12178v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2503.12178v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2503.12178v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> The research investigates the effects of public spending on health and education in shaping the human development in south Asian three countries: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The study uses the VAR (Vector Auto regression) model to estimate the effects on government spending on these sectors to evaluate the human development. The findings state that there are different degrees of impact in these three countries. In Bangladesh and India, health spending increases the human development in short term. On the other hand education spending shows the significance on the HDI.Moreover, the study also highlights that there are different levels of effectiveness of government spending across these three countries. In order to maximize the human development an optimum country specific strategies should be adopted. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2503.12178v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2503.12178v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 24 March, 2025; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 15 March, 2025; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> March 2025. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">draft</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.14041">arXiv:2502.14041</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.14041">pdf</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="General Economics">econ.GN</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Fiscal Policy and Household Savings in Central Europe (Poland, Croatia, and Slovak Republic) -- A Markov Switching VAR with Covid Shock </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Mamun%2C+T+G+M+A">Tuhin G M Al Mamun</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Ehsanullah"> Ehsanullah</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Hassan%2C+M+S">Md Sharif Hassan</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Yusof%2C+M+F">Mohd Faizal Yusof</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Islam%2C+M+A">Md Aminul Islam</a>, <a href="/search/econ?searchtype=author&query=Rab%2C+N+B">Naharin Binte Rab</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2502.14041v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> This study investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policies on household consumption, disposable income, and the propensity to consume during the COVID-19 pandemic across Croatia, Slovakia, and Poland. The purpose is to assess how variations in government debt, expenditures, revenue, and subsidies influenced household financial behaviors in response to economic shocks. Using a Markov Switching VA… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2502.14041v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2502.14041v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2502.14041v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> This study investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policies on household consumption, disposable income, and the propensity to consume during the COVID-19 pandemic across Croatia, Slovakia, and Poland. The purpose is to assess how variations in government debt, expenditures, revenue, and subsidies influenced household financial behaviors in response to economic shocks. Using a Markov Switching VAR model across three regimes: initial impact, peak crisis, and recovery.This analysis captures changes in household consumption, disposable income, and consumption propensities under different fiscal policy measures. The findings reveal that the Slovak Republic exhibited the highest fiscal effectiveness, demonstrating effective government policies that stimulated consumer spending and supported household income during the pandemic. Croatia also showed positive outcomes, particularly in terms of income, although rising government debt posed challenges to overall effectiveness. Conversely, Poland faced significant obstacles, with its fiscal measures leading to lower consumption and income outcomes, indicating limited policy efficacy. Conclusions emphasize the importance of tailored fiscal measures, as their effectiveness varied across countries and economic contexts. Recommendations include reinforcing consumption-supportive policies, particularly during crisis periods, to stabilize income and consumption expectations. This study underscores the significance of targeted fiscal actions in promoting household resilience and economic stability, as exemplified by the successful approach taken by the Slovak Republic. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2502.14041v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2502.14041v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 24 March, 2025; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 19 February, 2025; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> February 2025. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">draft</span> </p> </li> </ol> <div class="is-hidden-tablet">  <span class="help" style="display: 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