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id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-label" for="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only " aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-listBullet mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-listBullet"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">Toggle the table of contents</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-unpinned-container" class="vector-unpinned-container"> </div> </div> </div> </nav> <h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Random walk hypothesis</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another 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id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><p>The <b>random walk hypothesis</b> is a <a href="/w/index.php?title=Finance_theory&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Finance theory (not yet started)">financial theory</a>. It says that <a href="/wiki/Stock_market" title="Stock market">stock market</a> <a href="/wiki/Market_price" class="mw-redirect" title="Market price">prices</a> change according to a <a href="/wiki/Random_walk" title="Random walk">random walk</a>, Price changes are <a href="/wiki/Random" title="Random">random</a> and cannot be predicted. </p><p>The concept can be traced to <a href="/wiki/French_people" title="French people">French</a> <a href="/wiki/Broker" title="Broker">broker</a> <a href="/w/index.php?title=Jules_Regnault&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Jules Regnault (not yet started)">Jules Regnault</a> who published a book in 1863. It can also be traced to French <a href="/wiki/Mathematician" title="Mathematician">mathematician</a> <a href="/w/index.php?title=Louis_Bachelier&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Louis Bachelier (not yet started)">Louis Bachelier</a>. His <a href="/wiki/Doctor_of_Philosophy" title="Doctor of Philosophy">Ph.D.</a> <a href="/wiki/Dissertation" class="mw-redirect" title="Dissertation">dissertation</a>, "The Theory of Speculation" (1900), had comments on the subject. The same ideas were later worked on by <a href="/w/index.php?title=MIT_Sloan_School_of_Management&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="MIT Sloan School of Management (not yet started)">MIT Sloan School of Management</a> <a href="/wiki/Professor" title="Professor">professor</a> <a href="/w/index.php?title=Paul_Cootner&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Paul Cootner (not yet started)">Paul Cootner</a> in his 1964 book <i>The Random Character of Stock Market Prices</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The term was was made popular by the 1973 book, <i><a href="/w/index.php?title=A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="A Random Walk Down Wall Street (not yet started)">A Random Walk Down Wall Street</a></i>, by <a href="/w/index.php?title=Burton_Malkiel&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Burton Malkiel (not yet started)">Burton Malkiel</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-ARWDWS_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ARWDWS-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It was used earlier in <a href="/wiki/Eugene_Fama" title="Eugene Fama">Eugene Fama</a>'s 1965 article "Random Walks In Stock Market Prices",<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> which was a less technical version of his Ph.D. thesis. The theory that stock prices move randomly was earlier said by <a href="/w/index.php?title=Maurice_Kendall&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Maurice Kendall (not yet started)">Maurice Kendall</a> in his 1953 paper, <i>The Analysis of Economic Time Series, Part 1: Prices</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Random_walk_hypothesis&veaction=edit&section=1" title="Change section: References" class="mw-editsection-visualeditor"><span>change</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-divider"> | </span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Random_walk_hypothesis&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section's source code: References"><span>change source</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-1">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r9724332">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFCootner1964" class="citation book cs1">Cootner, Paul H. (1964). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://books.google.com/books?id=7XGvQgAACAAJ"><i>The random character of stock market prices</i></a>. <a href="/w/index.php?title=MIT_Press&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="MIT Press (not yet started)">MIT Press</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-262-03009-0" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-262-03009-0"><bdi>978-0-262-03009-0</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+random+character+of+stock+market+prices&rft.pub=MIT+Press&rft.date=1964&rft.isbn=978-0-262-03009-0&rft.aulast=Cootner&rft.aufirst=Paul+H.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fbooks.google.com%2Fbooks%3Fid%3D7XGvQgAACAAJ&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsimple.wikipedia.org%3ARandom+walk+hypothesis" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ARWDWS-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-ARWDWS_2-0">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r9724332"><cite id="CITEREFMalkiel1973" class="citation book cs1">Malkiel, Burton G. (1973). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/randomwalkdownwa0000malk_n2b5"><i>A Random Walk Down Wall Street</i></a> (6th ed.). W.W. Norton & Company, Inc. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-393-06245-8" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-393-06245-8"><bdi>978-0-393-06245-8</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=A+Random+Walk+Down+Wall+Street&rft.edition=6th&rft.pub=W.W.+Norton+%26+Company%2C+Inc.&rft.date=1973&rft.isbn=978-0-393-06245-8&rft.aulast=Malkiel&rft.aufirst=Burton+G.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Frandomwalkdownwa0000malk_n2b5&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsimple.wikipedia.org%3ARandom+walk+hypothesis" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-3">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r9724332"><cite id="CITEREFFama1965" class="citation journal cs1"><a href="/wiki/Eugene_Fama" title="Eugene Fama">Fama, Eugene F.</a> (September–October 1965). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20181119025058/https://www.cfapubs.org/toc/faj/1965/21/5">"Random Walks In Stock Market Prices"</a>. <i>Financial Analysts Journal</i>. <b>21</b> (5): 55–59. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.2469%2Ffaj.v21.n5.55">10.2469/faj.v21.n5.55</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.cfapubs.org/toc/faj/1965/21/5">the original</a> on 2018-11-19<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2008-03-21</span></span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Financial+Analysts+Journal&rft.atitle=Random+Walks+In+Stock+Market+Prices&rft.volume=21&rft.issue=5&rft.pages=55-59&rft.date=1965-09%2F1965-10&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.2469%2Ffaj.v21.n5.55&rft.aulast=Fama&rft.aufirst=Eugene+F.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cfapubs.org%2Ftoc%2Ffaj%2F1965%2F21%2F5&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsimple.wikipedia.org%3ARandom+walk+hypothesis" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><a href="#cite_ref-4">↑</a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r9724332"><cite id="CITEREFKendallBradford_Hill,_A1953" class="citation journal cs1"><a href="/w/index.php?title=Maurice_Kendall&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Maurice Kendall (not yet started)">Kendall, M. G.</a>; Bradford Hill, A (1953). "The Analysis of Economic Time-Series-Part I: Prices". <i>Journal of the Royal Statistical Society</i>. A (General). <b>116</b> (1): 11–34. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.2307%2F2980947">10.2307/2980947</a>. <a href="/wiki/JSTOR_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="JSTOR (identifier)">JSTOR</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2980947">2980947</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+the+Royal+Statistical+Society&rft.atitle=The+Analysis+of+Economic+Time-Series-Part+I%3A+Prices&rft.volume=116&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=11-34&rft.date=1953&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.2307%2F2980947&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jstor.org%2Fstable%2F2980947%23id-name%3DJSTOR&rft.aulast=Kendall&rft.aufirst=M.+G.&rft.au=Bradford+Hill%2C+A&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsimple.wikipedia.org%3ARandom+walk+hypothesis" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Other_websites">Other websites</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Random_walk_hypothesis&veaction=edit&section=2" title="Change section: Other websites" class="mw-editsection-visualeditor"><span>change</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-divider"> | </span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Random_walk_hypothesis&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section's source code: Other websites"><span>change source</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w2265">Consumption</a>, by Robert E. Hall </p> <div class="navbox-styles nomobile"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r9122492">.mw-parser-output .navbox{box-sizing:border-box;border:1px solid #a2a9b1;width:100%;clear:both;font-size:88%;text-align:center;padding:1px;margin:1em auto 0}.mw-parser-output .navbox .navbox{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox,.mw-parser-output .navbox+.navbox-styles+.navbox{margin-top:-1px}.mw-parser-output .navbox-inner,.mw-parser-output .navbox-subgroup{width:100%}.mw-parser-output .navbox-group,.mw-parser-output .navbox-title,.mw-parser-output .navbox-abovebelow{padding:0.25em 1em;line-height:1.5em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .navbox-group{white-space:nowrap;text-align:right}.mw-parser-output .navbox,.mw-parser-output .navbox-subgroup{background-color:#fdfdfd}.mw-parser-output .navbox-list{line-height:1.5em;border-color:#fdfdfd}.mw-parser-output .navbox-list-with-group{text-align:left;border-left-width:2px;border-left-style:solid}.mw-parser-output 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