Mysteel节后预测：广西建筑钢材价格或区间震荡运行-我的钢铁网

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<p>（一）节前周边主要城市区域价差情况</p> <p>截止1月23日，广西市场主导钢厂<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>基价在3420元/吨，周环比小幅上涨20元/吨，月环比下跌90元/吨，年同比下跌790元/吨，跌幅超18.76%。据数据显示，自2024年12月中旬以来，广西区内现货价格从单价3590元/吨开始下探，与往年年底价格走向趋势相背，其主要原因在于原料端价格走势异于往年，原料端表现持续弱于成材，对现货价格支撑性大幅减弱。其次是，市场贸易者心态差异明显，由于近年来市场多次出现春节后供需严重错配的情况，导致的现货价格在春节后出现加速下跌，且跌幅难以受控。2024年底商家避险心切，多执行以价换量操作，从而降低节后库存风险，因而现货价格在一月震荡走弱。月中旬区内钢厂冬储政策发布，叠加部分钢厂发布停产检修信息，节后现货库存消化压力减小，市场心态有所缓和，现货价格止跌后，在钢厂的推涨下，市场价格仍出现小反弹。</p> <p>图表一：2022-2025年广西螺纹钢价格走势图</p> <p align="center"><img src="https://img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/23/1732521.png" width="600" height="360" /></p> <p>由图二可见，近一月内较区外广东、海南、湖南等市场的建筑钢材价格，与往年不同，广西建筑钢材价格由往年的至高位，已跌至华南洼地乃至区外市场低位。目前广西市场价格较海南理计价格低100元/吨，较广东市场低60元/吨，较贵阳市场低20元/吨。</p> <p>图表二：广西周边主要城市建筑钢材价格情况</p> <p align="center"><img src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/23/1732522.png" width="600" height="360" /></p> <p>（二）近年五年春节前后建筑钢材价格变化情况</p> <p>图表三：近年五年广西春节前后建筑钢材价格变化</p> <p align="center"><img src="https://img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/23/1732523.png" width="600" height="231" /></p> <p><strong>二、二级市场冬储意愿寥寥代理商整体冬储量打折</strong></p> <p>2025年商家整体冬储情绪较差，市场整体冬储预期量缩减明显。目前南宁市场主导钢厂C冬储政策已发布，就目前政策而言，品牌一级代理商以锁价冬储为主，锁价成本为3230元/吨，并给予7折的冬储考核量。G钢厂无具体冬储政策，但给予各代理36000吨的季度考核量，春节开工后钢厂仍有计划执行停产检修，因而相较下今年商家储库压力骤减。柳州市场主导品牌，按冬储量接货量，给予商家价格优惠政策，但商家整体接货意愿较为谨慎，整体冬储量同样缩减。</p> <p>在前期商家持续降库下，广西南宁市场商家主流库存在1000-2000吨左右，较24年减少约3000吨左右库存量，品牌代理商认为整体库存压力尚可，对节后现货价格走势悲观心态有所缓解，不愿低价锁货出库。由此，广西市场冬储价格高于预期水平近百元，同时考虑节后需求无法及时兑现，市场仍有跌价风险，市场二级贸易商选择不冬储或仅少量备货为主。另一方面当下工程回款速度不及预期，若公司资金流不顺畅，同样无法执行冬储计划。</p> <p><strong>三、节前社会库存降幅明显但并不处于历史低位</strong></p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>样本库统计数据显示，目前广西市场建筑钢材社会库存约为26.54万吨，周环比0.47万吨，较2024年节前同期相比减少8.16万吨，较2023年同期水平增加0.71万吨。从整体来看，广西2025年节前社会库存水平较24年虽降幅明显，但并不处于历史低位。就目前下游工程资金到位情况来看，25年初终端需求预期并无明显好转，节后若无重大实质性利好政策落地，需求依旧恢复缓慢，现货市场价格底部有支撑但上行空间仍受限。春节前后区内钢厂虽均有检修计划，但仍能维持正常分货，商家低库存亦不可盲目乐观。</p> <p>图表四：广西2023-2025年建筑钢材库存走势图</p> <p align="right"><img style="width: 1000px; height: 300px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/01/23/1732524.png" width="600" height="180" /></p> <p><strong>四、区域内钢厂春节期间检修计划已出供给预期小幅下降</strong></p> <p>据Mysteel样本企业统计数据显示，截止1月23日，广西螺纹钢和线盘产能利用率分别为37.34%和29.3%，螺纹产能利用率上升4.84%，线盘下降2.86%。春节期间，B钢厂一座高炉于2月5日执行停产检修，预计停产20天左右，影响产量10万吨左右。其余长流程钢厂在1月上旬，均有部分产线已执行停产检修计划。广西短流程钢厂多数选择停产或不饱和生产为主，区内7家短流程钢厂平均开工率为57.14%、平均产能利用率为33.81%。根据目前所调研的钢厂春节假期前的检修情况，平均停产时长为26天，较去年减少2天左右，预计影响产量7.75万吨左右。</p> <p><strong>五、总结</strong></p> <p>从基本面角度来看，广西区内市场节后或呈供需双弱格局，整体库存年同比虽降幅明显，但节后需求面不容乐观。目前房地产需求支撑消失，部分基建项目仍处暂缓施工状态，并从24年底工程回款情况反馈来看，商家工程回款问题并无改善。节后市场商家出货仍有压力，但供需错配率有所缓解下，对现货价格起到托底作用。目前建筑钢材贸易环境仍在深度调整期，商家需保持谨慎乐观状态，仍不可过于冒进操作。</p> <p>因此笔者推测，目前广西市场建筑钢材价格处于低位，节后短期内或将在钢厂的带动下仍有小幅开门红拉涨动力。<strong>就目前下游资金情况而言，需求面在春节后出现超预期复苏概率较低，待市场情绪回归基本面，现货价格不无下跌风险。由于商家冬储相对谨慎，节前价格推涨意愿不高，并未加大累积风险，节后现货价格踩踏性下跌情况不会重演。</strong>因此预计，广西建筑钢材价格节后或区间震荡运行为主。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：唐艾莎 021-26094109 </br> 资讯监督：马伟 021-26093649 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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