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class="search-form d-block " action="https://epthinktank.eu/"> <div class="input-group"> <input type="search" class="form-control search-field" placeholder="Search for..." aria-label="Search for..." name="s"> <span class="input-group-btn"> <button class="btn bg-1 c-white search-submit" type="submit"><i class="fas fa-search"></i></button> </span> </div> </form> </div> </div> </div><div class="c-black f-text main" role="main"> <article id="post-59739" class="post-59739 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-international-relations-publications category-publications tag-briefings tag-eprs-briefings tag-foreign-affairs tag-marcin-grajewski tag-russia tag-russia-ukraine-war tag-ukraine tag-war tag-what-think-tanks-are-thinking">  <header class="article-header has-img c-white l-white "> <div class="bg bg-post" style="background-image: url(https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/EPRS_BRIE_TT_745688_Russia_war_Ukraine_final.png?fit=1000%2C666&ssl=1)"></div> <div class="img-text"> <div class="container"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-lg-10 mb-3 mt-4 offset-lg-1"> <div class="meta row align-items-center d-none d-sm-flex"> <div class="col-lg-6 actual-meta"> <div class="by-badge c-white small d-flex align-items-center"> <img src="https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3f66d34481de8beaf1ba9946b83ff62e?s=28&d=mm&r=g" class="rounded-circle mr-1" alt="Members' Research Service" /> <span class="author"> By <a href="https://epthinktank.eu/author/eprsdiraproductsupport/" title="Posts by Members' Research Service" rel="author">Members' Research Service</a> </span> <span class="date ml-1"> / May 25, 2023 </span> </div> </div> <div class="col-lg-6 share"> </div> </div> <hr class="brd-bl mb-4 mt-1 d-none d-sm-flex"> <h1 class="title f-main my-3 font-weight-bold">Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine [What Think Tanks are thinking]</h1> </div> </div> </div> </div> </header>  <div class="container post-container pt-4"> <div class="row pb-5"> <div class="col-lg-7 offset-lg-1 ">  <div class="lead c-meta mb-4 f-main"><p>This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. </p> </div>  <div class="mb-4"> <div class="featured-img"><img src="https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/EPRS_BRIE_TT_745688_Russia_war_Ukraine_final.png?fit=1000%2C666&ssl=1" alt="Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine [What Think Tanks are thinking]" /></div> <div class="img-caption f-main c-meta small text-right">© neirfy / Adobe Stock</div> </div>   <div class="post-content l-1 lh-black mb-4 clearfix"> <p><em>Written by Marcin Grajewski.</em></p> <p>Two anti-Kremlin armed groups, made up of Russian nationals fighting for Kyiv against their compatriots, have claimed they were behind a short incursion into Russian territory, prompting threats from Moscow, as the West pondered further sanctions against Russia and more arms deliveries to Ukraine. Ukraine has denied any role in the raid, while Russia has blamed ‘Ukrainian nationalists’ for the attack, and its Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, has vowed that Moscow will respond to any more cross-border raids swiftly and ‘extremely harshly.’</p> <p>At the G7 summit of industrialised and democratic nations on 19-21 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked for more arms supplies for his country, including F-16 fighter jets. Russia said that the transfer of such planes would raise the question of NATO’s role in the 15-month-old military conflict. The US and other countries promised to start training Ukrainian pilots to use F-16s.</p> <p>This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Earlier analyses of the war can be found in a <a target="_BLANK" href="https://epthinktank.eu/2023/04/20/russias-war-on-ukraine-what-think-tanks-are-thinking/" rel="noopener">previous edition</a> of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-growing-defense-tech-prowess-can-help-defeat-russia/" rel="noopener">Ukraine’s growing defense tech prowess can help defeat Russia</a><br>Atlantic Council, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-european-integration-is-the-key-to-a-sustainable-peace/" rel="noopener">Ukraine’s European integration is the key to a sustainable peace</a><br>Atlantic Council, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/wagner-chiefs-rants-highlight-russian-infighting-ahead-of-ukraine-offensive/" rel="noopener">Wagner chief’s rants highlight Russian infighting ahead of Ukraine offensive</a><br>Atlantic Council, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/deciphering-vladimir-putins-unspoken-victory-day-message/" rel="noopener">Deciphering Vladimir Putin’s unspoken Victory Day message</a><br>Atlantic Council, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-last-red-line-will-the-west-help-ukraine-liberate-crimea/" rel="noopener">Russia’s last red line: Will the West help Ukraine liberate Crimea?</a><br>Atlantic Council, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.cidob.org/es/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/opinion_cidob/2023/global_south_does_not_buy_western_stance_on_ukraine" rel="noopener">Global South does not buy western stance on Ukraine</a><br>Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/backstopping-ukraines-long-term-security-toward-an-atlantic-asian-security-community/" rel="noopener">Backstopping Ukraine’s long-term security: Toward an Atlantic-Asian security community</a><br>Brookings Institution, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/what-really-influences-united-nations-voting-ukraine" rel="noopener">What really influences United Nations voting on Ukraine?</a><br>Bruegel, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.bruegel.org/comment/bank-russias-immobilised-assets-what-happens-next" rel="noopener">Bank of Russia’s immobilised assets: what happens next?</a><br>Bruegel, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/sanctions-against-russia-will-worsen-its-already-poor-economic-prospects" rel="noopener">Sanctions against Russia will worsen its already poor economic prospects</a><br>Bruegel, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://brussels-school.be/publications/journal-articles/every-crisis-opportunity-european-union-integration-defence-and-war" rel="noopener">In every crisis an opportunity? European Union integration in defence and the War on Ukraine</a><br>Brussels Centre for Governance, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89678" rel="noopener">Is the EU ready for further enlargement?</a><br>Carnegie Europe, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89815?utm_source=rssemail&utm_medium=email&mkt_tok=ODEzLVhZVS00MjIAAAGL50Jb1oKNN1usxCz_VrVzU-hgU7QHqvkP2wwh9IKUuh_S3vT6uun9Stv02KzpOfUfTgG8XLF3X4AWC5q16smjm1xoajBtQBLFIWHpGQ" rel="noopener">Ukrainians Wait for Their Return Home</a><br>Carnegie Europe, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.ceps.eu/ceps-publications/tackling-the-constraints-on-eu-foreign-policy-towards-ukraine/" rel="noopener">Tackling the constraints on EU foreign policy towards Ukraine</a><br>Centre for European Policy Studies, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.ceps.eu/ceps-publications/tsar-nicholas-is-crimean-war-and-putins-in-ukraine-plus-ca-change/" rel="noopener">Tsar Nicholas I’s Crimean War and Putin’s in Ukraine: Plus ça change</a><br>Centre for European Policy Studies, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.ceps.eu/ceps-publications/ukraines-alarming-demographics/" rel="noopener">Ukraine’s alarming demographics</a><br>Centre for European Policy Studies, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/05/social-media-analysis-disrupts-russian-digital-narratives" rel="noopener">Social media analysis disrupts Russian digital narratives</a><br>Chatham House, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts" rel="noopener">How much aid has the U.S. sent Ukraine?</a><br>Council on Foreign Relations, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/how-ukraine-grain-deal-went-boon-burden-kremlin-0" rel="noopener">How the Ukraine grain deal went from boon to burden for the Kremlin</a><br>Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/navigating-deployment-russian-tactical-nuclear-warheads-belarus-key-factors" rel="noopener">Navigating the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear warheads in Belarus: Key factors and considerations</a><br>Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/culture-clash-russia-ukraine-and-the-fight-for-the-european-public/" rel="noopener">Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public</a><br>European Council on Foreign Relations, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/keeping-the-lights-on-the-eus-energy-relationships-since-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/" rel="noopener">Keeping the lights on: The EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine</a><br>European Council on Foreign Relations, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://ecfr.eu/article/the-ukraine-war-and-european-identity/" rel="noopener">The Ukraine war and European identity</a><br>European Council on Foreign Relations, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.epc.eu/en/Publications/11th-package-of-EU-sanctions-Focusing-on-circumvention~50d944" rel="noopener">11th package of EU sanctions: Focusing on circumvention</a><br>European Policy Centre, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.fiia.fi/en/publication/european-politics-in-times-of-crisis" rel="noopener">European politics in times of crisis: Developments in Germany, France and Italy, and consequences for the EU</a><br>Finnish Institute of International Affairs, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.friendsofeurope.org/insights/ukraines-refugees-highlight-the-shameful-eu-housing-crisis/" rel="noopener">Ukraine’s refugees highlight the shameful EU housing crisis</a><br>Friends of Europe, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.friendsofeurope.org/insights/defining-russias-defeat-the-wars-exit-strategy-and-a-new-international-security-architecture/" rel="noopener">Defining Russia’s defeat: The war’s exit strategy and a new international security architecture</a><br>Friends of Europe, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.gmfus.org/news/toward-marshall-plan-ukraine-0" rel="noopener">Toward a Marshall Plan for Ukraine</a><br>German Marshall Fund, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://hcss.nl/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/05-Pathways-to-Disaster-Russias-War-against-Ukraine-and-the-Risks.pdf" rel="noopener">Pathways to disaster: Russia’s war against Ukraine and the risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation</a><br>Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/war-ukraine-and-future-non-proliferation-and-arms-control-european-continent" rel="noopener">The war in Ukraine and the future of non-proliferation and arms control in the European continent</a><br>Istituto Affari Internazionali, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/applying-eu-membership-time-war-accession-through-war-ukraine" rel="noopener">Applying for EU membership in time of war: “Accession through war” of Ukraine</a><br>Istituto Affari Internazionali, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/europes-evolving-order-and-war-ukraine" rel="noopener">Europe’s evolving order and the war in Ukraine</a><br>Istituto Affari Internazionali, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://icds.ee/en/is-there-life-in-the-desert-russian-civil-society-after-the-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine/" rel="noopener">Is there life in the desert? Russian civil society after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine</a><br>International Centre for Defence and Security, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA1862-1.html" rel="noopener">What should future U.S. policy toward Russia be in peacetime?</a><br>Rand Corporation, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/05/what-the-drone-strikes-on-the-kremlin-reveal-about.html" rel="noopener">What the drone strikes on the Kremlin reveal about the war in Ukraine</a><br>Rand Corporation, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/05/why-does-ukraine-want-western-jets.html" rel="noopener">Why does Ukraine want Western jets?</a><br>Rand Corporation, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2370-1.html" rel="noopener">The trade-offs of Ukraine’s recovery: Fighting for the future</a><br>Rand Corporation, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/russian-civil-society-actors-in-exile" rel="noopener">Russian civil society actors in exile</a><br>Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://voxukraine.org/en/helping-ukraine-is-not-only-crucial-for-peace-in-europe-but-also-for-world-peace" rel="noopener">Helping Ukraine is not only crucial for peace in Europe but also for world peace</a><br>Vox Ukraine, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://voxukraine.org/en/ukraines-agriculture-and-farmland-market-the-impact-of-war" rel="noopener">Ukraine’s agriculture and farmland market: the impact of war</a><br>Vox Ukraine, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://voxukraine.org/en/towards-an-acceptable-accounting-of-ukraine-s-post-war-environmental-damages" rel="noopener">Towards an acceptable accounting of Ukraine’s post-war environmental damages</a><br>Vox Ukraine, May 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2023/04/28/americans-show-signs-of-impatience-with-ukraine-war/" rel="noopener">Americans show signs of impatience with Ukraine war</a><br>Brookings Institution, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89602" rel="noopener">Ukraine’s resilience is about winning the war</a><br>Carnegie Europe, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89557" rel="noopener">Why Ukraine needs security guarantees</a><br>Carnegie Europe, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://cedos.org.ua/en/researches/nine-months-of-full-scale-war-in-ukraine-thoughts-feelings-actions/" rel="noopener">Nine months of full-scale war in Ukraine: thoughts, feelings, actions</a><br>Cedos, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/OSW_Commentary_507.pdf" rel="noopener">The EU increases its agri-food imports from Ukraine: causes and reactions from Central European states</a><br>Centre for Eastern Studies, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-04-28/popasna-to-bakhmut-wagner-group-russia-ukraine-war" rel="noopener">From Popasna to Bakhmut: The Wagner Group in the Russia-Ukraine war</a><br>Centre for Eastern Studies, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2023/protecting-europes-critical-infrastructure-russian-hybrid" rel="noopener">Protecting Europe’s critical infrastructure from Russian hybrid threats</a><br>Centre for European Reform, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.cer.eu/insights/note-west-help-georgia-and-moldova-well-ukraine" rel="noopener">Note to the West: Help Georgia and Moldova as well as Ukraine</a><br>Centre for European Reform, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-russia-control-skies-over-ukraine" rel="noopener">Will Russia control the skies over Ukraine?</a><br>Centre for Strategic and International Studies, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/ukraines-counteroffensive-will-it-retake-crimea" rel="noopener">Ukraine’s counter-offensive: Will it retake Crimea?</a><br>Council on Foreign Relations, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.cfr.org/article/working-together-toward-accountability-how-icc-and-special-tribunal-aggression-can-work" rel="noopener">Working together toward accountability: How the ICC and a Special Tribunal on Aggression can work together on Ukraine</a><br>Council on Foreign Relations, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.cfr.org/article/what-northern-ireland-teaches-us-about-ending-ukraine-war" rel="noopener">What Northern Ireland teaches us about ending the Ukraine war?</a><br>Council on Foreign Relations, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/european-issues/0663-judging-putin" rel="noopener">Judging Putin</a><br>Fondation Robert Schuman, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.idos-research.de/uploads/media/PB_4.2023.pdf" rel="noopener">Rebuilding Ukraine: What the international community now needs to consider</a><br>German Institute of Development and Sustainability, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2022/04/war-in-ukraine-where-quantity-as-well-as-quality-matters/" rel="noopener">War in Ukraine, where quantity as well as quality matters</a><br>International Institute for International Studies, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.piie.com/commentary/testimonies/lessons-past-ukrainian-recovery-marshall-plan-ukraine" rel="noopener">Lessons from the past for Ukrainian recovery: A Marshall Plan for Ukraine</a><br>Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/04/countering-russias-nuclear-threat-in-europe.html" rel="noopener">Countering Russia’s nuclear threat in Europe</a><br>Rand Corporation, April 2023</p> <p><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/2023C23_CyberOperations_UkraineWar.pdf" rel="noopener">Cyber operations in Russia’s war against Ukraine</a> Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, April 2023</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/> <p><strong>Read this briefing on ‘</strong><a target="_BLANK" href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2023)747910" rel="noopener"><strong>Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine</strong></a><strong>‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.</strong></p> <div class="ssba-modern-2 ssba ssbp-wrap alignleft ssbp--theme-1"><div style="text-align:left"><span class="ssba-share-text">Share this…</span><br/><ul class="ssbp-list"><li class='ssbp-li--facebook'><a 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"https://i0.wp.com/epthinktank.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/cropped-oITSXV9q_400x400.jpg?fit=400%2C400&ssl=1" } }, "description": "This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. 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