CINXE.COM

Just a moment...

<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en-US"><head><title>Just a moment...</title><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8"><meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=Edge"><meta name="robots" content="noindex,nofollow"><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1"><style>*{box-sizing:border-box;margin:0;padding:0}html{line-height:1.15;-webkit-text-size-adjust:100%;color:#313131;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,Segoe UI,Roboto,Helvetica Neue,Arial,Noto Sans,sans-serif,Apple Color Emoji,Segoe UI Emoji,Segoe UI Symbol,Noto Color Emoji}body{display:flex;flex-direction:column;height:100vh;min-height:100vh}.main-content{margin:8rem auto;max-width:60rem;padding-left:1.5rem}@media (width <= 720px){.main-content{margin-top:4rem}}.h2{font-size:1.5rem;font-weight:500;line-height:2.25rem}@media (width <= 720px){.h2{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.5rem}}#challenge-error-text{background-image:url(data:image/svg+xml;base64,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);background-repeat:no-repeat;background-size:contain;padding-left:34px}@media (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body{background-color:#222;color:#d9d9d9}}</style><meta http-equiv="refresh" content="390"></head><body class="no-js"><div class="main-wrapper" role="main"><div class="main-content"><noscript><div class="h2"><span id="challenge-error-text">Enable JavaScript and cookies to continue</span></div></noscript></div></div><script>(function(){window._cf_chl_opt={cvId: '3',cZone: "pubs.aeaweb.org",cType: 'managed',cRay: '8ebe60f0ca26ce4a',cH: '7XWu3xAocWcBbC8yHU.AelEzd7Tt9x.yWoTJGj9CBJY-1733174612-1.2.1.1-GXvFqe3Lmo8qGYXLnHLEng8Ev38XQ_DIciLucL.EVv70n7EFe7Wpco8l2wLj__3A',cUPMDTk: "\/doi\/10.1257\/pol.3.3.206?__cf_chl_tk=hVGO6aRfs12JVLvEguNsKwSQbZVXXgVTrH_MdAtAJ94-1733174612-1.0.1.1-d.LBUWVz_LVmtz5Ni3DSOpyqra3lAFcSJN.rMZTAxew",cFPWv: 'b',cITimeS: '1733174612',cTTimeMs: '1000',cMTimeMs: '390000',cTplC: 0,cTplV: 5,cTplB: 'cf',cK: "",fa: "\/doi\/10.1257\/pol.3.3.206?__cf_chl_f_tk=hVGO6aRfs12JVLvEguNsKwSQbZVXXgVTrH_MdAtAJ94-1733174612-1.0.1.1-d.LBUWVz_LVmtz5Ni3DSOpyqra3lAFcSJN.rMZTAxew",md: "o5NJ.UQo2BKDnOTqjI20viHZGIDVZ4nP3rquztsCHbY-1733174612-1.2.1.1-jWItlKas9ddA56YiFjBbESDZoCAeP1GILcR.zQCbB_7whcIozGmEzp9TPvbM9dRl7a3hdtzH2YfC2IqO1SJbVhuELIB8h.K4Ut9hXrEzRSp_SAQeW9iFQG.DNfjph46qKYuBsAIDvWcAQiisamh14laoRED1qsSP8ClIl16zuF5IuYqwbq8mwDHVqu1yNVKIKiOHFaYCLUzXkZ5JdhOrkGNc1kNPk.aVe38WJl7KO3UGPuEMcUvDoe8z59oKyhnVYRgmXMBX6YPWtYiuEWV0CzxhIY0opQsyLsqiBxK.ycJou796axel1ddBCytQqWaBWS0bS.U6NINAIp2hmysBQtZDyd659AHh5z3s0NVAP6ycjw4c4TS.vt7F3Nrlo9cE0GtwdGDnh0Ww0REmkpgMX8Bnu9rzMtefYMdR4uOqGfrBJdHRnVcm44iRx3y3Euz.Lzf6mMo0CE7uYWdD56zFwsycAqGK7ai_U9JDkX4SSU2bEeqtwW.57aLUSEnSUz752mbetqLG5oKX_wdu_4GH8fNQwgYbnPyyH5RDOzYszKOaL2Zm3eq_3IJDOiMIS72blB5Py9HDc5CXVQPFNqhdx4ishv9KQ64iswAMkZnHeQk6VQeB7CPfjv02gvYeg0bVaBK53amg0l0ECL8VV5vR9.4_ieeDD3DA_Pkh58T.T.jsx.O6OxwRi7On5DKTxqdAvOAacDTEleLAXWCmfHetSYK03vX3QCJkuPOpyxz4Cm9xdyV7RAGarYdMFss0GsbO13OOkwg605Un0Yw.ddMqN7B9o7l7CDOR5qgWC4ti2lJz.xNJew3MJ4L1DivKt58tK5fBLlRxQHZGM29StmQhtDjEcopg3.6NI8YtUa7byETxUUSGAMKe1.SuJc_v_wFz4WIuIV0pGX1f5BReLzjfoQdKkgLrQlOr3Ra1QgRiaCtj8OLgod2yF1I3CLP.cqOMIRZJlsIT5L67Ol4ioquxUoapLjGszXvKCb.iWD93TRtPYCWHdW1vc0KO.vqGTri56JokCgzRPZZWQKsdas6OtN5y12hWQRpWtBZBqYCR9wAs1xVVO1pm2JwHzscsRZykqPJVUpmXRm1Ku7ZeEsFzS1iO3jr2D1YpuxGxArnUtvheY_o4oEw35zPuNT0Tf_UCXrNYNfLmxJXzfMrPqzA54inW4s7Vpebayru_cV7tY7HevdFPId_Ea.zfUc3mBEwSlHnWSr61Xvo1fhRO2nezytY9Ua43BDrXrfwmdgpjNDKI.aw5Bi9nxlUFe16vuyMSlCGnWwLAawhwM7WDoFSnGVdx.h2w0J3DhUVnuxKYdAyI_HAsPAwEGucJNpSs9cGg6rhXAGj0oaDB8nIloCuGrs619jwxYea4D3FNRLedBEOLjFjKgsAgWs_fiTNQzImSMmhOduwtMRLH2fzbeYztlEaNC_AupZ3N8lbZS5EFV0p37tW8ZpRYJg5xiGhpwD2cPuIxE_5pAT..N8vhE2UIq5evJ8Te7cpjaIMrGJoIeFy0HDc65lxk3kBJhRS8tByBSnrIyJ_f_0NwAnEcK0D3DUVDCvV7ZB.df6B_yYvF68taV1_wSxkHyh7ktAqZGmNKowuUTn3xecOfaLgmfBbVQj2mch_LvTeh_I7yhnhY_YxXNhdWRYHlJTY6JbFMn.mHTzxh6ryp59_wb.NECw0kc9wtPFzUhtg6hgDOXYayVKETlPISCpKceQP2_KjFvzByOmFgxxT3aKh0D.DH1I1POSM.vHF4zJxop5i2gjeyn2QO4JZVNkrC_KrUX.2EbdjocJHWhALyW.hg0FEyeHZxvDFSwRa41COBdin5q4J.lB_TVcyoHGonHZMNTv8MYbpT8EQqBELQ_10JgOtJi1yoRjhr.dtnH1OcdU71JZxnq3HSbqOXAb2UiOB3OlOvUXvuIFqxeQM3lbBi2wF0DwPxSiMzsX8d7.r7Zm7fu5v.dL4mNId6f5y9sgMbtgMmVRPePwkLB0uD.ev9FtECCX.0gSjCv8zFKib1x0IpLz24wiM5fXByK3cu_WhOPAYXEExGEIAJhwxx5K_Nw4wiE26EPBwcOxQ2WIX75oHQqAfnqImyd8KV1NSNnelEZbeEU9B_PWKdgg1dj8NQhf3Qt2.F738ml1zP2H78ucQAZRdOi6.5WhdtIKEkDvfuv1XS5zFMYTtlab5Nh5CIWn7AW5FriBtc8PYZjfVxT88KDaMv8eZ.q5BjtodGz6uLN9Nb7WBZsnViFBRQ8ugg0ayXva.t4Hc0p_FDHhNbuEx__zIjuwstpv2LHGfroFlmxKHZft0HDOJGbTzv63P0Czj8KIQJV5Q4s0QzAVCvRN_wcONRiih2rDHUfWm28XRmYJxBu5uWmW_snJc68hUML86cxfe0DPjivN87JOMfMRZJFpcuuKMVqFxPGtseJRzen8xlDX6JcBre8cX3B1G60cEnnFv_TRMRrr5itc4RlvjYrup2Cd7AKr0h0FFcj0frHCGqFoJN.1wsSKU27bGmLHP8jU2MAUENqNidm_rs67.Kuw6DiDDNtCDNwvmlMtRNBz2XhrwVzvy.eKftrR5fC0m0MqUbK1LkVOToZ819L7Aopk_u0OH.eVxyqsXdHGMPTeN8ay0zeV5EBiJ626MLfZhE1f8sW8fjWrbMhywEo8ugiMhlnfE0OnnO7xjAhK0UamsvNasHiEfFmBmb_9NspNq7Be1yudAz8N7n.FPVXTJ2hRiYvMHsFzf9oZ4WopWpcsvOem_vgs7drV4HaxMVuUgzltaHG9FUYuHwC71VXf5p6GkFB0g00aznukMo7lh9v75W35IrzvFud4aBUcESQecJ2d9Ek1FS1LXsrVm_pE4bbJdlMWJ2Myepn8glPFWpMLbN2YLuz2Z5j751NltpC8d.Xw7gfezIbJc3szaXS3ZWkGL.pQKXKnSs8lj3JhwMEz6y4H8jSTMglMOMuJRruJMHQx3FLQ",mdrd: "rNHWVJ57x8nue1A3LXXFax85myYQ8XweeoN6reiZ.S0-1733174612-1.2.1.1-VONk98WIuh15rTK3cthtmMhsGjU.SStEPaaRBGsNX8Li28e1MoA9xW8B_dPNj4V2hxJGANw0doUw7WHX.KgPRv2M1FvxYUrWc7RpFnAWAxIWVT09QmprgjWwCNo7t_xgfZWMy8PtJ98ziJcM7UjYsum5bNFwigXrAWe094zztVSOuHr7KCyErbQetupPRHuEwkKFwG1BcbBJewknPwHiikCsQEDazBbTTp3ni7ANb5zHhK_ruQVxoZBx5EyNT.6utx6jNJnA7YYSwGpKPC3DvMrOXiozr1CLLFSd1jMVy7rVFW1T4yY68J7Qskat5Qtsz2U2Kfx6asj3FXLsY0e6uo.uooMrNzEL49Vogl.G4SjgAyqQBOf3MKfRMHgV6CjFry7GCQ9EIFK6BfZ8NlwtNi_TrIo.GOXxFP.cr.XPz0wnEFC4MSUzft_EGz0uGaSsmN21AdGktSpYWjdBdhlXpffBueo8mL8Pu40fiDUwKFl0o3FBtrGL67jsR9ZpiLek7VjRkRLpchf2TFQIm4IZZMx6Afi7V5JEfztswfDO4ONQNuZSmOk9_i6M1rECC6wc.a41ztoJ2auMI6LRZgqlqEzizRUkD3hLEnamEDdNDzNkWBYL6NI1AisQC6Gdhm9I7ZgncNrrtuJOJQ0sWRrPF.JUy2mbpxTfPBnhi6ciTJgkVo7KlXIYzFIOcZynG2S79azMRDSH4NtzDINL9Ey7v2lF3YOKdaoWaqZG49Ajmsp0Rkcc38owx_ofbw87GLAd4iGn43VipVf7jOQK7CQiy7LKMUjI.t0Y16ScNXcwpehWI3FO48QWO7.iwvF7naQd7K7tRy.Ea3S.2uGvB.PhVnt1omlKNHr.Lr08N0oj0F0j4xdsPPYGFbdOfWXmKoHXDxNHQ8lqGzrxTFvkKn.kgLfX_n3zEzg8cVmrrhicLJnhm2msWTm3JFQHuSDGnN6Gs9pf1lxJRVDBtuoLevAS4bDUrlwFo5aLeTS9ue9QJhPTkFUtcb4C9Dk7tJZ0c4oFcrzheoEmPXrkJ2VlPnAE9oQST4RxS8DH_l7FlUP643X5UXEdTgnLAh9CjalRUK7HQX_eqFoCzuqGjvX0iaj3ajasGuauZORgf6NjQDUsVCq_IX0YVEZ28Crqh2AWNPq1605_q8sxFDKjcPIE_vbp5LGWYDjgk.8hQh8lOGgnpyhP.BvzsAJ7zmuPQ1DPHC70M0nSnSUj8S_9kVJgxqAue2oLQiG1yPAZS6H3IUCoFQs_jeL.rL6MsJOwE9TEoz4BiiyySjYdkgy_1SHrUumxIQXxfEeHBVXWr0gvLc9eodTcbSDCYX5fq6KY1e9fe8v1CatRmHp5EGUAGmg8xaalf2Tr7wlgF966sIpQ9Yl6Id6mVDf4DWonr7jaV7sA3RSF1VCH329W4JkpkwIxCiFxE2QhmBO9DVlhWBdFC6YoBprdDlpTutccCCH5ZKVVKaesGcihhnynh3U17GF8AIheU10IQuG0JZzclJo3tAFZEhIxDmE0QstSSs7bY0zI40kbtnlM8a9ioZ5DeLaIE_S99DAZds536LD9gcl.yoncvUFRrghMijz07r2BWcTPR.emQYkvAp8DiAJQOxNzTUaUsHWDeoPrIyBalEypevJyGjG4P8_O_OPrNPeXRS67y3wtJHIrY965gy_rixGTz60Qd0aHCjl6u_aZbsKxG9XuF715C6S.zrJBCGePlVsQJiXOYEGQe2uyySzwra_Z1PEuMMuoWZYkw8iuPd2YdV3icuPC33qam17s82FuvZocX4gzMbCBcnlHl_E9Smr5Mp8GWp_VOdwUuRA8YJmZF9XNhoZ3n.WPeebDqeGwTaFqYlfX_Y8WxLHzcT00R4k_N2BXfcdZniowNx7zr6OS.kvSALCASXE6Hhqp8n0DjcTDsN91HwVPjo_XCRYIAa4CD_6jZ0ORgBNYnOcp7Ck7xFFzTck"};var cpo = document.createElement('script');cpo.src = '/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/h/b/orchestrate/chl_page/v1?ray=8ebe60f0ca26ce4a';window._cf_chl_opt.cOgUHash = location.hash === '' && location.href.indexOf('#') !== -1 ? '#' : location.hash;window._cf_chl_opt.cOgUQuery = location.search === '' && location.href.slice(0, location.href.length - window._cf_chl_opt.cOgUHash.length).indexOf('?') !== -1 ? '?' : location.search;if (window.history && window.history.replaceState) {var ogU = location.pathname + window._cf_chl_opt.cOgUQuery + window._cf_chl_opt.cOgUHash;history.replaceState(null, null, "\/doi\/10.1257\/pol.3.3.206?__cf_chl_rt_tk=hVGO6aRfs12JVLvEguNsKwSQbZVXXgVTrH_MdAtAJ94-1733174612-1.0.1.1-d.LBUWVz_LVmtz5Ni3DSOpyqra3lAFcSJN.rMZTAxew" + window._cf_chl_opt.cOgUHash);cpo.onload = function() {history.replaceState(null, null, ogU);}}document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(cpo);}());</script></body></html>