CINXE.COM

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src="https://www.techopedia.com/de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/avatar_user_286971_1711037663-300x300.jpeg"> </div> <div class="custom_author_info"> <div class="name_author_out"> <div class="investor"> von Finanz Journalist </div> <div class="post_author_name_out"><a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/author/robgriffinde?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB"> <span class="post_author_name">Rob Griffin</span> </a> <div class="authorByline_tooltip"> <div class="row text-white"> <div class="author-left"> <img width="80" height="80" src="https://www.techopedia.com/de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/03/avatar_user_286971_1711037663-300x300.jpeg"> <div class="author-left-top"><span class="post_author_name">Rob Griffin</span> <div class="investor"> Finanz Journalist </div> <ul> <li class="list-inline-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.linkedin.com/in/rwgriffin/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img width="18" 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Bevor er sich 2002 selbstständig machte, trug er…</p> <div class="bio-right"><a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/author/robgriffinde?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Alle Artikel von <strong>Rob Griffin</strong></a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="author_sec2"> <div class="custom_author_info"> <div class="name_author_out"> <span class="reviewedfact">Überprüft von </span><span class="reviewedcl"><a class="jan-author" href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/author/olga?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Olga Artyushina</a> <div class="authorByline_tooltip reviewedcl_tooltip"> <div class="row text-white"> <div class="author-left"> <img width="80" height="80" src="data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20viewBox='0%200%2080%2080'%3E%3C/svg%3E" data-lazy-src="https://www.techopedia.com/de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/07/avatar_user_286554_1689323855-300x300.png"> <noscript> <img width="80" height="80" src="https://www.techopedia.com/de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/07/avatar_user_286554_1689323855-300x300.png"> </noscript> <div class="author-left-top"><span class="post_author_name">Olga Artyushina</span> <div class="investor review1"> Redakteurin </div> <ul> <li class="list-inline-item"><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.linkedin.com/in/olga-artyushina-1b94b6109/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img width="18" height="18" src="https://www.techopedia.com/de/wp-content/themes/twentytwenty-child/images/linkedin.svg" class="skiplazy"></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="author-right"> <p>Versierte Autorin und Redakteurin mit über 8 Jahren Erfahrung in der Erstellung und Lokalisierung von Inhalten für Unternehmen im IT- und Finanzdienstleistungssektor. Bevor sie ihre…</p> <div class="bio-right"><a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/author/olga?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Alle Artikel von <strong>Olga Artyushina</strong></a> </div> </div> </div> </div></span> </div> </div> </div> <div class="author_sec3"> <div class="authore-update-row"><span class="custom_author_name">Aktualisiert am</span> <span class="posttim posdate"> <time class="w-post-elm post_date entry-date updated" datetime="2024-11-29">29 November 2024</time> </span> </div> </div> <div class="custom-share"> <div class="m-tooltip-socail-wrap"> <div class="social-sharing"> <div class="social-sharing-button"><img width="16" height="16" class="social-sharing-button-icon" src="https://www.techopedia.com/de/wp-content/themes/twentytwenty-child/images/share-top-button.svg" alt="title"> </div> <div class="social-sharing-dropdown"><a class="social-sharing-link" 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Durch die Nutzung dieser Website erklären Sie sich mit unseren Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen und der <a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/datenschutz?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Datenschutzerklärung</a> einverstanden. </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </header> </div> <figure class="featured-media"> <div class="featured-media-inner section-inner"><img fetchpriority="high" width="1200" height="685" src="https://www.techopedia.com/de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/11/US-Zinssatz-Prognose.jpeg" class="w-100 skiplazy wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" srcset="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/11/US-Zinssatz-Prognose.jpeg?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB 1200w,https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/11/US-Zinssatz-Prognose-300x171.jpeg?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB 300w,https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/11/US-Zinssatz-Prognose-1024x585.jpeg?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB 1024w,https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/11/US-Zinssatz-Prognose-768x438.jpeg?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px"> </div> </figure> <div class="post-inner thin "> <div class="entry-content"> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Die US-Notenbank hat mit der <a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/definition/fed-zinsentscheid?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Senkung der US-Zinssätze</a> begonnen, nachdem sich die Inflation endlich ihrem Ziel von 2 % nähert.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Der Zielwert des Federal Fund liegt derzeit bei 4,50 % bis 4,75 %. Anfang November wurde der Satz um 25 Basispunkte (Bp) gekürzt, gefolgt von einer Zinssenkung um 50 Bp im September.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Werden die Zinsen in den USA nun wieder runtergehen oder werden Inflationsängste im Zusammenhang mit der Politik des neu gewählten Präsidenten Donald Trump die Pläne durchkreuzen?</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In unserer US-Zinsprognose untersuchen wir die Gründe für die jüngsten Zinssenkungen und fragen Finanzexperten, wo ihrer Meinung nach die Zinsen in den nächsten fünf Jahren liegen werden.</span></p> <div class="su-note" style="border-color:#dddddd;border-radius:3px;-moz-border-radius:3px;-webkit-border-radius:3px;"> <div class="su-note-inner su-u-clearfix su-u-trim" style="background-color:#F7F7F7;border-color:#ffffff;color:#333333;border-radius:3px;-moz-border-radius:3px;-webkit-border-radius:3px;"> <h2><span id="wichtigste_erkenntnisse">Wichtigste Erkenntnisse</span></h2> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Die Federal Funds Rate beträgt derzeit 4,50 % bis 4,75 %.</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Die Höhe der <a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/definition/zinssatz?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Zinssätze</a> wirkt sich auf die Kosten der Kreditaufnahme für Haushalte und Unternehmen aus.</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Der Konsens lautet, dass die Federal Reserve die Zinsen im Dezember 2024 erneut senken könnte.</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Fed-Chef Jerome Powell schließt eine Zinserhöhung im nächsten Jahr nicht aus, betont aber, dass dies nicht geplant ist.</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Die künftigen Zinssätze könnten von der Wirtschaftspolitik des designierten Präsidenten Donald Trump beeinflusst werden.</span></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div> <section class="toc-sticky w-100 bg-white "> <div class="toc-sticky__container container"> <div class="toc-sticky__open d-flex align-items-end" data-bs-toggle="collapse" aria-controls="multiCollapse1" data-bs-target="#multiCollapse1"><button class="btn btn-primary collapse-action-btn p-1 rounded-circle" type="button"> <i class="icon-chevron-up"></i> </button> <span id="toc-current-title" class="d-flex align-items-center"> Inhaltsübersicht </span> <span class="toc-main-title-permanent">Inhaltsübersicht</span> </div> <div class="collapse my-3" id="multiCollapse1"> <ol class="StepProgress"> <li class="StepProgress-item current"> <div class="StepProgress-item__group"><a data-id="wichtigste_erkenntnisse" onclick="handleScrollToTitle("wichtigste_erkenntnisse")" class="StepProgress-item__link" data-level="2">Wichtigste Erkenntnisse</a> </div></li> <li class="StepProgress-item"> <div class="StepProgress-item__group"><a data-id="wer_bestimmt_die_us-zinssaetze" onclick="handleScrollToTitle("wer_bestimmt_die_us-zinssaetze")" class="StepProgress-item__link" data-level="2">Wer bestimmt die US-Zinssätze?</a> </div></li> <li class="StepProgress-item subList-in-progress "> <div class="StepProgress-item__group"><a data-id="wie_haben_sich_die_us-zinsen_in_letzter_zeit_entwickelt" onclick="handleScrollToTitle("wie_haben_sich_die_us-zinsen_in_letzter_zeit_entwickelt")" class="StepProgress-item__link" data-level="2">Wie haben sich die US-Zinsen in letzter Zeit entwickelt?</a> <button class="StepProgress-item__arrow collapse-action-btn" type="button" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#TOC1sublist-wie_haben_sich_die_us-zinsen_in_letzter_zeit_entwickelt" aria-controls="sublist-wie_haben_sich_die_us-zinsen_in_letzter_zeit_entwickelt"> <i class="icon-chevron-down"></i> </button> </div> <ol class="StepProgress-sub-list collapse" id="TOC1sublist-wie_haben_sich_die_us-zinsen_in_letzter_zeit_entwickelt"> <li class="StepProgress-sub-item"><span> <a data-id="der_juengste_zinsbeschluss" onclick="handleScrollToTitle("der_juengste_zinsbeschluss")" class="StepProgress-item__link" data-level="3">Der jüngste Zinsbeschluss</a> </span></li> </ol></li> <li class="StepProgress-item"> <div class="StepProgress-item__group"><a data-id="was_wird_die_us-zinsentwicklung_beeinflussen" onclick="handleScrollToTitle("was_wird_die_us-zinsentwicklung_beeinflussen")" class="StepProgress-item__link" data-level="2">Was wird die US-Zinsentwicklung beeinflussen?</a> </div></li> <li class="StepProgress-item subList-in-progress "> <div class="StepProgress-item__group"><a data-id="prognostizierte_zinssaetze_in_5_jahren_analystenmeinungen" onclick="handleScrollToTitle("prognostizierte_zinssaetze_in_5_jahren_analystenmeinungen")" class="StepProgress-item__link" data-level="2">Prognostizierte Zinssätze in 5 Jahren: Analystenmeinungen</a> <button class="StepProgress-item__arrow collapse-action-btn" type="button" 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</script> <h2><span id="wer_bestimmt_die_us-zinssaetze">Wer bestimmt die US-Zinssätze?</span></h2> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bei der <a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.federalreserve.gov/economy-at-a-glance-policy-rate.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Funds Rate</a> handelt es sich um den Zinssatz, zu dem Banken täglich untereinander Geld (engl. overnight credit) leihen. Er ist der wohl einflussreichste Zinssatz in den USA.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Der Offenmarktausschuss der US-Notenbank (Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC) hat die Aufgabe, auf jeder seiner acht regelmäßig stattfindenden Sitzungen pro Jahr die Zielspanne für den Leitzins festzulegen.</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Der FOMC besteht aus Mitgliedern des Gouverneursrats, die ihren Sitz in Washington, DC, haben, und Präsidenten der Federal Reserve Bank im ganzen Land.</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Laut der <a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/why-do-interest-rates-matter.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fed</a> beeinflussen die Zinssätze die „Kreditkosten und Ausgabenentscheidungen“ von Haushalten und Unternehmen. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Die US-Notenbank erklärte: „Niedrigere Zinssätze ermutigen zum Beispiel oft mehr Menschen, eine Hypothek für ein Haus aufzunehmen oder Geld für ein Auto oder die Renovierung des Hauses zu leihen.“</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Darüber hinaus können Unternehmen zur Aufnahme von Krediten zur Erweiterung ihrer Geschäftstätigkeit veranlasst werden, z. B. zum Kauf neuer Ausrüstung, zur Modernisierung von Anlagen oder zur Einstellung weiterer Mitarbeiter.</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Umgekehrt können höhere Zinssätze die Kreditaufnahme von Verbrauchern und Firmen einschränken, was Exzesse in der Wirtschaft verhindern kann“, heißt es weiter.</span></p> </blockquote> <h2><span id="wie_haben_sich_die_us-zinsen_in_letzter_zeit_entwickelt">Wie haben sich die US-Zinsen in letzter Zeit entwickelt?</span></h2> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Der Rückgang der Inflation, die sich nach Ansicht der Politiker wieder in Richtung 2 %-Ziel bewegt, erforderte bisher zwei Zinskorrekturen im Jahr 2024.</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Die erste Senkung um 50 Basispunkte erfolgte im September 2024, wodurch das Zielniveau auf 5,25 % bis 5,5 % gesetzt wurde.</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Zwei Monate später, Anfang November, wurde eine weitere Kürzung um 25 Basispunkte angekündigt, wodurch das Niveau auf 4,5 % bis 4,75 % weiter gesenkt wurde.</span></p> <h3><span id="der_juengste_zinsbeschluss">Der jüngste Zinsbeschluss</span></h3> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Anfang November 2024 <a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20241107a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gab</a> die US-Notenbank eine Zinssenkung um 25 Basispunkte auf 4,5 %–4,75 % bekannt. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In ihrer Zinsprognose wies die Fed auf die aktuellen Indikatoren hin, die ein weiterhin solides Wirtschaftswachstum signalisieren.</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Es hieß: „Seit Anfang des Jahres hat sich die Lage auf dem Jobmarkt allgemein entspannt, wobei die Arbeitslosenquote zwar gestiegen ist, aber weiterhin gering bleibt. Die <a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/definition/inflation?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Inflation</a> hat Fortschritte in Richtung des Ziels des Ausschusses von 2 % gemacht, ist aber immer noch etwas zu hoch.“</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Auf einer <a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20241107.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">anschließenden Pressekonferenz </a>betonte der Fed-Vorsitzende Jerome Powell, dass der Schwerpunkt auf dem Erreichen des Doppelmandatsziels der maximalen Beschäftigung und stabiler Preise liege.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Die Wirtschaft ist insgesamt stark und hat in den letzten zwei Jahren erhebliche Fortschritte bei der Erreichung unserer Ziele gemacht“, sagte er. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Der Arbeitsmarkt hat sich von seinem ehemals überhitzten Zustand abgekühlt und bleibt stabil.“</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Außerdem wies er darauf hin, dass die zuvor schnell steigenden Lebenshaltungskosten nun unter Kontrolle seien.</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Die Inflation hat sich von einem Höchststand von 7 % auf 2,1 % im September deutlich verringert“, erklärte er. </span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Wir sind entschlossen, die Stärke unserer Wirtschaft durch die Förderung von Höchstbeschäftigung und die Rückkehr der Inflation zu unserem Ziel von 2 % zu erhalten.“</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Natürlich steht die Frage im Raum: Werden die US-Zinsen steigen?</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Auf die Frage, ob er eine Zinserhöhung im Jahr 2025 ausschließen könne, wollte sich Powell jedoch nicht dazu äußern, in welche Richtung die Zinsen seiner Meinung nach im nächsten Jahr gehen werden.</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Ich würde nichts ausschließen und schon gar nicht in so weiter Ferne“, sagte er. </span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Aber das ist sicherlich nicht unser Plan. Unsere Grunderwartung ist, dass wir uns weiterhin allmählich in Richtung Neutralität bewegen, dass die Konjunktur weiterhin in einem gesunden Tempo wächst und der Arbeitsmarkt stark bleibt.“</span></p> <h2><span id="was_wird_die_us-zinsentwicklung_beeinflussen">Was wird die US-Zinsentwicklung beeinflussen?</span></h2> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Die US-Zinsaussichten hängen von mehreren wirtschaftlichen Faktoren ab, die im kommenden Jahr die Entscheidungen der Fed beeinflussen dürften.</span></p> <div class="su-note" style="border-color:#dddddd;border-radius:3px;-moz-border-radius:3px;-webkit-border-radius:3px;"> <div class="su-note-inner su-u-clearfix su-u-trim" style="background-color:#F7F7F7;border-color:#ffffff;color:#333333;border-radius:3px;-moz-border-radius:3px;-webkit-border-radius:3px;"> <p><strong>Dazu gehören:</strong></p> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Arbeitsmarkt;</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Wirtschaftspolitik des designierten Präsidenten Donald Trump;</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Konjunkturstärke;</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Inflation.</span></li> </ul> </div> </div> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Laut dem kürzlich veröffentlichten <a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20241107.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protokoll</a> der FOMC-Sitzung von Anfang November waren die Teilnehmer der Meinung, dass die Inflation nach ihrem Höchststand deutlich zurückgegangen sei.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Darin heißt es: „Fast alle Teilnehmer waren der Ansicht, dass die Inflation zwar von Monat zu Monat <a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/definition/volatilitaet?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">volatil</a> bleibt, die Daten aber im Allgemeinen mit einer dauerhaften Rückkehr der Inflation auf 2 % im Einklang stehen.“</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ferner merkten die Teilnehmer der Sitzung an, dass in einem breiten Spektrum von Preisen für Basisgüter und -dienstleistungen ein Inflationsabbau zu beobachten war.</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Hinsichtlich der Inflationsentwicklung zeigten sich die Teilnehmer nach wie vor zuversichtlich, dass sich die Inflation nachhaltig in Richtung 2 % bewegt, auch wenn einige die Möglichkeit anführten, dass dieser Prozess länger dauern könnte als bisher erwartet.“</span></p> <h2><span id="prognostizierte_zinssaetze_in_5_jahren_analystenmeinungen">Prognostizierte Zinssätze in 5 Jahren: Analystenmeinungen</span></h2> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Wie sieht also die Zinsprognose für die USA auf Sicht der nächsten fünf Jahre aus? </span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Wir haben eine Reihe von Meinungen untersucht, um herauszufinden, was laut Beobachtern wahrscheinlich passieren wird.</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">JP Morgan Research geht davon aus, dass die Fed die Zinsen im Dezember um weitere 25 Basispunkte senken wird, wobei sie im Jahr 2025 nur noch einmal pro Quartal gekürzt werden.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Das Unternehmen rechnet mit einem Abschluss des Zinssenkungszyklus durch die Fed, sobald der Leitzins 3,5 % erreicht hat, während es zuvor von einer Endrate von 3 % ausgegangen war.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Michael Feroli, Chefvolkswirt bei JP Morgan, sagte:</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Unabhängig davon, welche Maßnahmen genau ergriffen werden, bringt ein Wechsel der Partei im Weißen Haus einige neue Unbekannte für die Wirtschaft mit sich. Dies spricht für ein allmählicheres Tempo bei den Zinssenkungen.“</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Laut Russ Mould, Investment Director bei AJ Bell, werden die prognostizierten US-Zinsen nun bis Weihnachten 2025 bei 4 % liegen. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Er erklärte:</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Es könnte an der hartnäckigen Inflation liegen, an der Sorge um die Höhe der Staatsverschuldung oder am Ausbleiben einer lang erwarteten <a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/definition/rezession?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Rezession</a>, aber die Anleger beginnen, die Anzahl der sowohl von der US-Notenbank als auch von der Bank of England erwarteten Zinssenkungen zu reduzieren.“</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Die Fed wird die Zinsen am 18. Dezember 2024 voraussichtlich um 25 Basispunkte senken, während die Märkte weniger davon überzeugt sind, dass die Bank of England am nächsten Tag Maßnahmen ergreifen wird.</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Vor ein oder zwei Monaten rechneten die Märkte noch mit einem Leitzins der Fed und der Bank of England von 3,5 % bis zum nächsten Weihnachtsfest, aber 4 % scheint jetzt der aktuelle Konsens für die nächsten 12 Monate zu sein“, fügte er hinzu.</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Der leitende US-Volkswirt von Morningstar, Preston Caldwell, geht von einer unter den Konsenserwartungen liegenden Inflation in den nächsten Jahren aus.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Dies ist unserer Ansicht nach auf die Tatsache zurückzuführen, dass die Wirtschaft im Jahr 2025 deutlich unter ihrem Potenzial bleiben wird, und diese Flaute dürfte einen starken disinflationären Druck erzeugen“, schrieb er in einem <a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt4eb669caa7dc65b2/blt68197a8ccae78d1e/66d9ad814f9fc45c5ad7fd43/U.S._Economic_Outlook_Q3_2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Update</a>. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Dies sollte aggressivere als die vom Markt erwarteten Zinskürzungen ermöglichen.“</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Unterdessen hat Fitch Ratings vorausgesagt, dass der <a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fed-rate-cuts-are-still-likely-to-be-modest-overall-in-this-easing-cycle-23-09-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Umfang der US-Zinssenkungen</a> im aktuellen geldpolitischen Lockerungszyklus im Vergleich zur Vergangenheit bescheiden ausfallen wird.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In einer Prognose von Ende September hieß es:</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Wir erwarten nun, dass die Federal Funds Target Rate (Obergrenze) bis Ende dieses Jahres auf 4,5 % und bis Ende 2025 auf 3,5 % und dann bis Juni 2026 auf ein neutrales Niveau von 3,0 % fallen wird.“</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Schließlich rechnet Vanguard mit US-Zinsen<a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/vanguard-economic-market-outlook-2025-global-summary.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> um die 4,5 %</a> bis zum Ende dieses Jahres und dann mit einem Rückgang auf 4 % gegen Ende 2025.</span></p> <h3><span id="wann_werden_die_zinssaetze_sinken">Wann werden die Zinssätze sinken?</span></h3> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Für diejenigen, die von einer weiteren Zinskürzung durch die Fed ausgehen: Wann werden die Sätze reduziert?</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Laut einer <a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-lower-rates-dec-slow-pace-2025-inflation-risks-2024-11-20/%23:~:text%3DThe%2520Fed%2520will%2520deliver%2520a,higher%2520than%2520last%2520month" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters-Umfrage unter Wirtschaftsexperten</a> wird die US-Notenbank die Zinsen im Dezember 2024 kürzen. Im Jahr 2025 werden die Zinssenkungen geringer ausfallen als erwartet.</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Grund für den Sinneswandel bei den US-Zinserwartungen ist das Risiko einer höheren Inflation durch die von Präsident Trump vorgeschlagene Politik.</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Fast 90 % der befragten Wirtschaftsfachleute (94 von 106) gingen in der Erhebung vom 12. bis 20. November von einer Kürzung des Leitzinses um 25 Basispunkte im Dezember auf 4,25 % bis 4,50 % aus. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Zwölf rechneten mit einer unveränderten Zinssenkung, im Vergleich zu nur drei in der Vorjahresumfrage.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ben Yearsley, Direktor bei Fairview Investing, prognostiziert weitere Zinsanpassungen in den USA, sieht aber keine allzu dramatischen Entwicklungen.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Er sagte gegenüber Techopedia:</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Da das Wachstum in den USA stark ist und die Fed sich weniger auf die Inflation konzentriert, besteht kaum ein dringender Bedarf an Zinssenkungen. Ich denke, sie werden abwarten, was Präsident Trump tatsächlich unternimmt, bevor sie zu viel tun. Eine kleine Kürzung im Dezember ist zwar immer noch möglich, aber weniger wahrscheinlich als noch vor ein paar Monaten.“</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rob Clarry, Anlagestratege bei Evelyn Partners, prognostiziert, dass die Fed die Zinsen weiter bis ins Jahr 2025 senken wird, auch wenn die Gefahr besteht, dass der neue Präsident Donald Trump seinen Einfluss geltend macht.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Er erklärte gegenüber Techopedia:</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Es hängt davon ab, welche seiner Maßnahmen in welchem Tempo umgesetzt werden, aber groß angelegte Abschiebungen und Zölle sind inflationär, da sie einen Arbeitskräftemangel bzw. höhere Kosten für importierte Waren zur Folge haben werden. Dies würde die Macht der Federal Reserve zur Leitzinssenkung einschränken.“</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Wie Clarry betonte, sei im Vergleich zum vorangegangenen Jahrzehnt ein „eindeutig höheres Zinsumfeld“ zu verzeichnen.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Über die nächsten zwölf Monate hinaus dürfte die Nachfrage nach Kapital für Energieinvestitionen, Verteidigungsausgaben und <a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/definition/kuenstliche-intelligenz-ki?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">künstliche Intelligenz</a> die Zinsen in die Höhe treiben“, fügte er hinzu.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nach Ansicht von George Brown, dem leitenden US-Volkswirt bei Schroders, könnte Trump Steuern und Vorschriften senken und gleichzeitig die Zölle erhöhen und die Einwanderung beschränken.</span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Auch die Inflation dürfte sich als hartnäckiger erweisen, was uns in der Überzeugung bestärkt, dass die Federal Reserve (Fed) nicht so viele Lockerungen vornehmen wird, wie sie angedeutet hat“, sagte er. </span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Angesichts unseres Standpunkts, dass der neutrale Zinssatz bei 3,50 % liegt, bedeutet Trumps Rückkehr ins Weiße Haus wahrscheinlich, dass die Fed die Zinsen über diesem Niveau halten muss.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Laut Dan Coatsworth, Investmentanalyst bei AJ Bell, sind die Aktien seit Oktober 2023 in dem Glauben gestiegen, dass der Inflationsdruck nachlässt und die Zinssätze sinken werden.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Allerdings könnte Trumps Rückkehr ins Weiße Haus seiner Meinung nach die Dinge in eine ganz andere Richtung lenken.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Zwar könnte es in nächster Zeit noch zu Zinskürzungen kommen, doch wird die Federal Reserve die Sätze möglicherweise nicht so stark und schnell senken, wie bisher angenommen, sollte die Inflation anziehen, sobald Trump wieder an der Macht ist“, sagte er. </span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Das ist ein wichtiger Rückenwind für die Aktienmärkte und sicherlich nicht der Hintergrund, der normalerweise die Art von Aktienkursgewinnen unterstützt, die wir im Anschluss an das Wahlergebnis von 2024 gesehen haben.“</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Für Jonathan Moyes, Leiter des Investment Research bei Wealth Club, könnte die Zukunft der US-Zinsen von den Rahmenbedingungen im Zusammenhang mit dem Wahlsieg Trumps abhängen.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Alle Augen werden auf Donald Trump und jegliche größere Änderungen der Steuer- und Ausgabenpläne gerichtet sein, sobald die neue Regierung gebildet ist“, erklärte er. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">„Wenn man mit Steuersenkungen zu früh zu weit geht, könnte die Fed zur Anhebung der Zinssätze gezwungen sein, um einen zusätzlichen Inflationsdruck abzukühlen, was möglicherweise die Bühne für einen Konflikt zwischen der neuen Regierung und der Fed im Jahr 2025 bereitet.“</span></p> <h2><span id="us-zinssatzgeschichte">US-Zinssatzgeschichte</span></h2> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Der Leitzins der Zentralbank war in den vom Covid-Virus geprägten Jahren von 2020 bis 2022 niedrig. </span></p> <blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Tatsächlich lag er nur bei 0 %–0,25 %, als sich die Epidemie weltweit auszubreiten begann.</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mit dem Anstieg der Inflation fing er jedoch an zu steigen und belief sich im Sommer 2023 auf 5,25 %–5,5 %.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Dieser Zielwert wurde bis zur Kürzung um 50 Basispunkte im September 2024 beibehalten, wodurch er auf 4,75 %–5 % sank. Nach einer erneuten Reduzierung um 25 Basispunkte im November lag er bei 4,50 % bis 4,75 %.</span></p> <h2><span id="fazit_werden_die_us-zinsen_im_jahr_2025_gesenkt">Fazit: Werden die US-Zinsen im Jahr 2025 gesenkt?</span></h2> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bei anhaltend rückläufiger Inflation besteht eine gute Chance auf weitere Zinssenkungen im Jahr 2025.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Umfragen deuten darauf hin, dass die US-Zinsprognosen einiger Analysten auf eine letzte Kürzung im Jahr 2024 und dann auf weitere im kommenden Jahr hinauslaufen.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Der wirtschaftliche Joker ist jedoch der designierte Präsident Donald Trump und die Frage, ob er eine inflationäre Politik nach seiner Rückkehr ins Weiße Haus verfolgen wird.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Umso schwieriger ist es, die Frage zu beantworten, wo die US-Zinsen in fünf Jahren liegen werden. Zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt gibt es einfach zu viele Unbekannte.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Die Wirtschaftsexperten sind sich zwar einig, dass es im nächsten Jahr zu Kürzungen kommen wird, doch werden diese möglicherweise nicht so drastisch ausfallen wie bisher angenommen.</span></p> <h2><span id="faq">FAQ</span></h2> <div class="man_faq_sec" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/FAQPage"> <section class="ms_faq ms_card "> <div itemscope itemprop="mainEntity" itemtype="https://schema.org/Question"> <div class="accordionButton"> <h3 itemprop="name">Wie lautet die Zinsprognose für die nächsten 5 Jahre?</h3> </div> <div class="accordionContent" itemscope itemprop="acceptedAnswer" itemtype="https://schema.org/Answer" style="display:none;"> <p itemprop="text">Niemand weiß das mit Sicherheit, da viel zu viele Variablen im Spiel sind. Laut Statista wird jedoch allgemein erwartet, dass die Zinssätze bis 2027 schrittweise auf etwa 3,5 % fallen werden.</p> </div> </div> </section> <section class="ms_faq ms_card "> <div itemscope itemprop="mainEntity" itemtype="https://schema.org/Question"> <div class="accordionButton"> <h3 itemprop="name">Werden die US-Zinsen 2024 gesenkt?</h3> </div> <div class="accordionContent" itemscope itemprop="acceptedAnswer" itemtype="https://schema.org/Answer" style="display:none;"> <p itemprop="text">Allgemein herrscht die Meinung vor, dass die Fed die Zinsen im Dezember zum dritten Mal in diesem Jahr senken wird. Dies ist jedoch nicht in Stein gemeißelt.</p> </div> </div> </section> <section class="ms_faq ms_card "> <div itemscope itemprop="mainEntity" itemtype="https://schema.org/Question"> <div class="accordionButton"> <h3 itemprop="name">Werden die Zinssätze wieder auf 3 % fallen?</h3> </div> <div class="accordionContent" itemscope itemprop="acceptedAnswer" itemtype="https://schema.org/Answer" style="display:none;"> <p itemprop="text">Möglicherweise. Fitch Ratings geht davon aus, dass sie bis 2026 auf diesen Wert sinken könnte.</p> </div> </div> </section> <section class="ms_faq ms_card "> <div itemscope itemprop="mainEntity" itemtype="https://schema.org/Question"> <div class="accordionButton"> <h3 itemprop="name">Welche Fed-Zinssätze werden für 2025 erwartet?</h3> </div> <div class="accordionContent" itemscope itemprop="acceptedAnswer" itemtype="https://schema.org/Answer" style="display:none;"> <p itemprop="text">Die Meinungen gehen auseinander, aber Russ Mould, Investment Director bei AJ Bell, rechnet mit einem US-Leitzinsniveau von rund 4 % bis Weihnachten 2025.</p> </div> </div> </section> <div class="reference-content"> <div class="reference-heading reference-content-collapsible-heading"> <h2><span id="quellenangaben">Quellenangaben</span></h2> </div> <div class="reference-content-body"> <ol> <li><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.federalreserve.gov/economy-at-a-glance-policy-rate.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Fed – Economy at a Glance – Policy Rate</a></li> <li><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/why-do-interest-rates-matter.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Fed – Why do interest rates matter?</a></li> <li><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed</a></li> <li><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20241107a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement</a></li> <li><a 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rel="noopener">Fed Rate Cuts Are Still Likely to Be Modest Overall in This Easing Cycle</a></li> <li><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/vanguard-economic-market-outlook-2025-global-summary.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Our economic and market outlook for 2025: Global summary | Vanguard</a></li> <li><a href="https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en-GB&u=https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-lower-rates-dec-slow-pace-2025-inflation-risks-2024-11-20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fed to lower rates in Dec but slow pace in 2025 on inflation risks: Reuters poll | Reuters</a></li> </ol> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="article-related-sec"> <div class="article-sec-inner"> <h4 id="article-terms">Verwandte Begriffe</h4> <ul class="related-termdata"> <li><a 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Durch die Nutzung dieser Website erklären Sie sich mit unseren Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen und der <a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/datenschutz?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Datenschutzerklärung</a> einverstanden. </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="jan-dictionary sidebar-dictionary"> <h4>Beliebtester Begriff</h4> <div class="latest-ans-inner2"> <div class="latest-ans-card"> <div class="popular-wrappercl"><span><a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/lexikoncat/kryptowahrungen?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Kryptowährungen</a></span> <h4><a href="https://www-techopedia-com.translate.goog/de/definition/krypto-launchpad?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB">Krypto-Launchpad</a></h4> <p class="card-text">Was ist ein Krypto-Launchpad? Ein Krypto-Launchpad, auch bekannt als Token-Launchpad, ist eine Plattform zur Unterstützung neuer Kryptowährungsprojekte. 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