International Energy Outlook 2023 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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Increasing population and income offset the effects of declining energy and carbon intensity on emissions </a></li> <li data-id="Theshifttorenewablest"><a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#Theshifttorenewablest"> The shift to renewables to meet growing electricity demand is driven by regional resources, technology costs, and policy </a></li> <li data-id="Energysecurityconcerns"><a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#Energysecurityconcerns"> Energy security concerns hasten a transition from fossil fuels in some countries, although they drive increased fossil fuel consumption in others </a></li> <li data-id="AppendixACasedescript"><a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#AppendixACasedescript"> Appendix A: Case descriptions </a></li> <li data-id="AppendixBModelingassu"><a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#AppendixBModelingassu"> Appendix B: Modeling assumptions regarding Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine </a></li> <li data-id="AppendixCNewmodeling"><a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#AppendixCNewmodeling"> Appendix C: New modeling regions </a></li> <li data-id="Footnotes"><a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#Footnotes"> Footnotes </a></li> </ul> </div> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="right"> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page-content"></div><div class="l-row l-two-col-left release-event"> <div class="l-col primary"> <h1 class="l-margin-bottom">Data Tables</h1> <ul class="basic-list"> <li class="head">Reference and side case tables</li> <li><span class="formats">Available formats:</span> <a href="data.php" class="ico xls" title="Data Tables in Excel format"><span>XLSX</span></a><span class="pipe-alt">|</span> <a href="data.php" class="ico pdf" title="Data Tables in PDF format"><span>PDF</span></a> </li> <li class="list-spacer"></li> <li class="head">Interactive table browser</li> <li><span class="formats">Available formats:</span>  <a href="/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=1-IEO2023&&sourcekey=0" class="ico interactive" title="Interactive table browser"><span>INTERACTIVE</span></a> </li> <li class="list-spacer"></li> <li class="head">API data and tools</li> <li><span class="formats">Available formats:</span> <a href="/opendata/browser/ieo" class="ico api" title=""><span>API</span></a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="l-col primary"> <h1 class="l-margin-bottom">Release Event</h1> <div class="l-row l-two-col-even"> <div class="l-col"> <ul class="basic-list"> <li class="head">Webcast of release</li> <li class="video-container"> <a href="https://www.csis.org/events/us-eias-international-energy-outlook-2023"><img src="/outlooks/ieo/images/IEO_video.png" alt="IEO2021 webinar screenshot"></a>  </li> </ul> </div> <div class="l-col"> <ul class="basic-list"> <li class="head">Release Event Presentation</li> <li>The <em>International Energy Outlook</em> (IEO) presents the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) assessment of the outlook for international energy markets.</li> <li><a href="pdf/IEO2023_Release_Presentation.pdf" class="ico pdf"><span>PDF</span></a> <span class="pipe-alt">|</span> <a href="ppt/IEO2023_Release_Presentation.pptx" class="ico ppt"><span>PPT</span></a> <span class="pipe-alt">|</span> <a href="excel/IEO2023_Release_Presentation.xlsx" class="ico xls"><span>XLSX</span></a> </li> <li class="list-spacer"></li>  </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div><div class="l-row l-full-width-col"> <div class="l-col l-border-top l-margin-large-top l-padding-top"> <h1 class="overview l-padding-top">Narrative<a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#all-open" class="link-button">Read the Full Narrative</a></h1> <div class="l-row l-two-col-left"> <div class="l-col"> <h2>Introduction</h2> </div> <div class="l-col"> <div class="accordion"> <h2 class="l-border-remove-top"><span class="plusminus">+</span> <span class="label"> Administrator's Foreword </span> <p>The global energy system is governed by complex dynamics that play out over time across regions and sectors of the economy. Projected increases in population and incomes drive our expectation of rising energy demand through 2050.</p> </h2> <section id="AdministratorsForeword" class="l-padding-xsmall-bottom l-margin-bottom-medium l-border-remove" style="display: none;"> <div class="accordion-content"> <ul> <li>  <p>The global energy system is governed by complex dynamics that play out over time across regions and sectors of the economy. Projected increases in population and incomes drive our expectation of rising energy demand through 2050. However, we expect the increased energy demand to be moderated by reduced energy intensity: less energy will be required for each unit of economic activity. In addition, we expect reduced carbon intensity—largely driven by the wide-scale deployment of renewables for electricity generation—which will help limit global CO2 emissions associated with what will be record -high energy demand. Our International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023) explains our findings and showcases key regional and sectoral variations. We use EIA's detailed World Energy Projection System to produce IEO2023, giving our readers a unique view into future global energy systems.</p> <a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#AdministratorsForeword" class="link-button read-more">Read more</a>  </li> </ul> </div> </section> <h2><span class="plusminus">+</span> <span class="label"> Executive Summary </span> <p>Since our last IEO two years ago, IEO2021, the global energy system has evolved against a backdrop of new energy policies, the transition to zero-carbon technologies, energy security concerns, and economic and population growth.</p> </h2> <section id="ExecutiveSummary" class="l-padding-xsmall-bottom l-margin-bottom-medium l-border-remove" style="display: none;"> <div class="accordion-content"> <ul> <li>  <p>The <em>International Energy Outlook 2023</em> (IEO2023) explores long-term energy trends across the world through 2050. Since our last IEO two years ago, IEO2021, the global energy system has evolved against a backdrop of new energy policies, the transition to zero-carbon technologies, energy security concerns, and economic and population growth. While IEO2023 includes several cases to capture important drivers of change, the modeled cases represent a set of policy neutral baselines that place emphasis on the current trajectory of the global energy system.</p> <a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#ExecutiveSummary" class="link-button read-more">Read more</a>  </li> </ul> </div> </section> <h2 class="l-border-remove-bottom"><span class="plusminus">+</span> <span class="label"> Introduction </span> <p>The <em>International Energy Outlook 2023</em> (IEO2023) explores long-term energy trends across the world through 2050. We explore three key findings in separate sections of this report, each containing a series of in-depth explanations that include region- and sector-specific insights across modeled cases.</p> </h2> <section id="Introduction" class="l-padding-xsmall-bottom l-margin-bottom-medium l-border-remove" style="display: none;"> <div class="accordion-content"> <ul> <li>  <p>The <em>International Energy Outlook 2023</em> (IEO2023) explores long-term energy trends across the world through 2050. We explore three key findings in separate sections of this report, each containing a series of in-depth explanations that include region- and sector-specific insights across modeled cases. IEO2023 includes a series of cases that reflect different assumptions related to macroeconomic growth, technology costs, and fuel prices, although the future remains significantly uncertain.</p> <a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#Introduction" class="link-button read-more">Read more</a>  </li> </ul> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-row l-full-width-col"> <div class="l-col"> <hr class="overview"> <div class="l-row l-two-col-left"> <div class="l-col"> <h2>Analysis</h2> </div> <div class="l-col"> <div class="accordion"> <h2 class="l-border-remove-top"><span class="plusminus">+</span> <span class="label"> Increasing population and income offset the effects of declining energy and carbon intensity on emissions </span> <p>Our projections highlight a key global insight—global energy-related CO<sub>2</sub> emissions will increase through 2050 in all IEO2023 cases except our Low Economic Growth case.</p> </h2> <section id="Increasingpopulationand" class="l-padding-xsmall-bottom l-margin-bottom-medium l-border-remove" style="display: none;"> <div class="accordion-content"> <ul> <li>  <p>Our projections highlight a key global insight—global energy-related CO<sub>2</sub> emissions will increase through 2050 in all IEO2023 cases except our Low Economic Growth case. Our projections indicate that resources, demand, and technology costs will drive the shift from fossil to non-fossil energy sources, but current policies are not enough to decrease global energy-sector emissions. This outcome is largely due to population growth, regional economic shifts toward more manufacturing, and increased energy consumption as living standards improve. Globally, we project increases in energy consumption to outpace efficiency improvements.</p> <a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#Increasingpopulationand" class="link-button read-more">Read more</a>  </li> </ul> </div> </section> <h2><span class="plusminus">+</span> <span class="label"> The shift to renewables to meet growing electricity demand is driven by regional resources, technology costs, and policy </span> <p>We project global electricity generation will increase by 30% to 76% in 2050 from 2022 (depending on the case) and will primarily be met by zero-carbon technologies across all cases.</p> </h2> <section id="Theshifttorenewablest" class="l-padding-xsmall-bottom l-margin-bottom-medium l-border-remove" style="display: none;"> <div class="accordion-content"> <ul> <li>  <p>We project global electricity generation will increase by 30% to 76% in 2050 from 2022 (depending on the case) and will primarily be met by zero-carbon technologies across all cases. For all cases, we project that 81% to 95% of the new electric-generating capacity installed from 2022 to 2050 to meet new demand will be zero-carbon technologies. As a result, by 2050, the combined share of coal, natural gas, and petroleum liquids decrease to between 27% and 38% of the installed global generating capacity across our cases.</p> <a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#Theshifttorenewablest" class="link-button read-more">Read more</a>  </li> </ul> </div> </section> <h2><span class="plusminus">+</span> <span class="label"> Energy security concerns hasten a transition from fossil fuels in some countries, although they drive increased fossil fuel consumption in others </span> <p>Natural gas and crude oil supply, consumption, and trade patterns evolve in our projections to meet growing demand against the backdrop of Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which we assume will continue to limit Russia鈥檚 exports to Western markets.</p> </h2> <section id="Energysecurityconcerns" class="l-padding-xsmall-bottom l-margin-bottom-medium l-border-remove" style="display: none;"> <div class="accordion-content"> <ul> <li>  <p>Natural gas and crude oil supply, consumption, and trade patterns evolve in our projections to meet growing demand against the backdrop of Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which we assume will continue to limit Russia鈥檚 exports to Western markets. The Middle East and North America are the primary regions to increase natural gas production and exports to meet growing international demand, mainly in Asia and Europe. Near- to mid-term (2023–2035) growth in crude oil production is met by non-OPEC regions, particularly in North and South America. OPEC regains market share as other regions reach peak production, generally between 2030 and 2040 in our projection.</p> <a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#Energysecurityconcerns" class="link-button read-more">Read more</a>  </li> </ul> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-row l-full-width-col"> <div class="l-col"> <div class="primary"> <hr class="overview"> <div class="l-row l-two-col-left"> <div class="l-col"> <h2>Appendices</h2> </div> <div class="l-col"> <div class="primary"> <div class="accordion"> <h2 class="l-border-remove-top"><span class="plusminus">+</span> <span class="label"> Appendix A: Case descriptions </span> <p>IEO2023 includes a Reference case and a series of six side cases that reflect different assumptions related to macroeconomic growth, fuel prices, and technology costs.</p> </h2> <section id="AppendixACasedescript" class="l-padding-xsmall-bottom l-margin-bottom-medium l-border-remove" style="display: none;"> <div class="accordion-content"> <ul> <li>  <p>The Reference case models projections under assumptions that reflect current energy trends and relationships, existing laws and regulations, and select economic and technological changes. The High Economic Growth and Low Economic Growth cases reflect the uncertainty in projections of global economic growth. The High and Low Oil Price cases consider two alternative future paths of oil prices. The High and Low Zero-Carbon Technology Cost cases examine the impact of capital cost assumptions on zero-carbon electricity generating technologies.</p> <a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#AppendixACasedescript" class="link-button read-more">Read more</a>  </li> </ul> </div> </section> <h2><span class="plusminus">+</span> <span class="label"> Appendix B: Modeling assumptions regarding Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine </span> <p>We included assumptions in our IEO2023 cases regarding Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which are held constant across all cases.</p> </h2> <section id="AppendixBModelingassu" class="l-padding-xsmall-bottom l-margin-bottom-medium l-border-remove" style="display: none;"> <div class="accordion-content"> <ul> <li>  <p>Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has affected energy markets worldwide since it began in February 2022. Although some impacts have already occurred, significant uncertainty surrounding long-term effects remains. We included assumptions in our IEO2023 cases regarding Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which are held constant across all cases.</p> <a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#AppendixBModelingassu" class="link-button read-more">Read more</a>  </li> </ul> </div> </section> <h2 class="l-border-remove-bottom"><span class="plusminus">+</span> <span class="label"> Appendix C: New modeling regions </span> <p>For the <em>International Energy Outlook 2023</em> (IEO2023), we are introducing new regional groupings for countries in the World Energy Projection System (WEPS) based solely on geography.</p> </h2> <section id="AppendixCNewmodeling" class="l-padding-xsmall-bottom l-margin-bottom-medium l-border-remove" style="display: none;"> <div class="accordion-content"> <ul> <li>  <p>For the <em>International Energy Outlook 2023</em> (IEO2023), we are introducing new regional groupings for countries in the World Energy Projection System (WEPS). Previously, our publication regions were defined primarily by Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) designation and secondarily by geography. We based the new regional groupings solely on geography.</p> <a href="/outlooks/ieo/narrative/index.php#AppendixCNewmodeling" class="link-button read-more">Read more</a>  </li> </ul> </div> </section>  </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="l-row l-full-width-col"> <div class="l-col l-border-top"> <h2 class="l-padding-top">Related Today in Energy articles</h2> <ul class="basic-list"> <li class="date"><em>February 14, 2024</em></li> <li><a href="/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61423">Industry to drive tripling of natural gas consumption in India by 2050</a></li> <br> <li class="date"><em>January 30, 2024</em></li> <li><a href="/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61343">Projected zero-carbon electricity growth highly dependent on cost in parts of Asia</a></li> <br> <li class="date"><em>November 30, 2023</em></li> <li><a href="/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61024">Global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions rise through 2050 in most IEO2023 cases</a></li> <br> <li class="date"><em>October 11, 2023</em></li> <li><a href="/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60642">EIA projects global energy consumption will outpace efficiency gains in most cases</a></li> </ul> <div class="top-container"> <a href="#top" class="top">Top</a> </div> </div> </div><div class="l-row l-three-col-even energy-outlook-page-foot"> <div class="l-col"> <ul class="basic-list"> <li class="head"> <h2>About the International Energy Outlook</h2> </li> <li><a href="/about/contact/forecasting.php#international">Contact Information and Staff</a></li> <li><a href="/pressroom/releases/press542.php">Press Release</a></li> <li><a href="/outlooks/ieo/ieoweps_sourcecode.php">World Energy Projection System Source Code</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="l-col"> <ul class="basic-list"> <li class="head"> <h2>Previous Editions of the IEO</h2> </li> <li> <div class="form-container"> <fieldset> <div class="dropdown-container no-js"> <div class="dropdown-button"> <span class="text">Select Year</span> <span class="ico d-arrow"> 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