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stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"/> <path d="M26 31L26 24.5C26 22.0147 28.0147 20 30.5 20V20C32.9853 20 35 22.0147 35 24.5L35 31" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="4" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"/> <rect x="6" y="6" width="36" height="36" rx="3" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="4" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"/> </svg></a> </div> </div> <div class="sm:px-3 sm:w-4/5 md:w-3/4 mx-auto md:px-5"><span dir="auto" class="story__byline text-5 py-2 text-red-100 dark:text-red-100 hover:text-blue-600 mb-4"><a class="story__byline__link" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240901113816/https://www-dawnnews-tv.translate.goog/authors/3077/dr-imad-ali?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp">ڈاکٹر عماد علی</a></span><span class="divider "></span><span class="story__time py-2 text-red-100 dark:text-red-100 "> <span class="timestamp--published"> <span class="timestamp--label">شائع</span> <span class="timestamp--date">August 1, 2024</span> </span></span> </div> <div dir="auto" class="story__content overflow-hidden text-5.5 leading-8 mt-10 overflow-visible "> <p>حکومت پاکستان کی جانب سے معاشی سروے برائے سال 24-2023 کا <a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="link--external" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240901113816/https://translate.google.com/website?sl=auto&tl=en&hl=en&client=webapp&u=https://finance.gov.pk/survey_2024.html"><strong>اجرا</strong></a> کیا جا چکا ہے، یہ سروے گزشتہ مالی سال کی معاشی کارکردگی اور آنے والے خطرات کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔</p> <p>معاشی سروے میں جو اعداد و شمار لیے جاتے ہیں وہ زیادہ تر گزشتہ جولائی سے لے کر مارچ تک کے ہوتے ہیں، قارئین کی دلچسپی کے لیے سروے کے اہم مندرجات کا خلاصہ پیش نذر ہے۔</p> <p>اقتصادی سروے میں گزشتہ مالی سال میں شرحِ بڑھوتری (گروتھ ریٹ) 2.3 فیصد بتایا گیا ہے جبکہ ورلڈ بینک کی اپریل2024 میں شائع ایک رپورٹ میں شرح نمو کا تخمینہ 1.8 فیصد لگایا گیا تھا۔</p> <p>سروے کے مطابق اگر کل قومی آمدنی کو تمام لوگوں میں تقسیم کردیا جائے تو ہر ایک کے حصے میں 1680 ڈالر آتے ہیں، جس کا مطلب ہے کہ اگر ایک گھر میں دو میاں بیوی اور دو بچے ہوں تو اس کی سالانی آمدنی $1680*4=6720 جوکہ پاکستانی روپیہ میں 19لاکھ روپیہ سے کچھ زیادہ بنتی ہے۔</p> <p></p> <figure class="media sm:w-3/5 w-full media--center "> <div class="media__item "> <picture> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240901113816im_/https://i.dawn.com/large/2024/08/011525015412395.png" alt=""> </picture> </div> </figure> <p></p> <p>ملک میں سرمایہ کاری کے حوالے سے معاشی سروے اس بات کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے کہ ملک میں سرمایہ کاری مجموعی داخلی پیداوار (GDP) کا 14 فیصد ہے، جو نہ صرف بتدریج کم ہو رہی ہے بلکہ خطے کے دوسرے ممالک کے مقابلے میں بھی کم ہے۔</p> <p>فنانس ڈویژن کی جانب سے جاری سروے اس خطرے کی بھی نشاندہی کرتا ہے کہ یہ شرح مستقبل کی معاشی ترقی کو برقرار رکھنے کے لیے نا کافی ہے۔ صنعتوں کو درپیش مسائل کا اعادہ کرتے ہوئے سروے میں اس بات کا اظہار کیا گیا ہے کہ بڑی صنعتوں کی منفی نمو کی بنیادی وجوہات میں پیداواری لاگت میں اضافہ اور بجلی کی بڑھتی ہوئی قیمتیں شامل ہیں۔</p> <p>حکومتی اخراجات و آمدنی کے حوالے سروے میں اس اطمینان کا اظہار کیا گیا ہے کہ پرائمری بیلنس سرپلس میں ہے یعنی اگر سود کی ادائیگی کو ہٹا کر دیکھا جائے تو حکومتی آمدنی اخراجات سے زیادہ ہے۔ تاہم کل بجٹ کا خسارہ مالی سال 2024 کے پہلے 9 ماہ میں جی ڈی پی کا 3.7 فیصد رہا۔ تاہم پورے مالی سال کے حوالے سے سروے میں بجٹ کا خسارہ جی ڈی پی کا 6.5 فیصد تخمینہ لگایا گیا ہے۔ اس خسارے کی بڑی وجہ سود کی ادائیگی ہے جوکہ کل اخراجات کا 40 فیصد ہے۔ سود کی ادائیگی میں اضافہ کی بنیادی وجہ اونچی شرح سود کو قرار دیا گیا ہے۔</p> <hr> <h3><a id="ملک-میں-807-لوگوں-کے-لیے-ایک-رجسٹرڈ-ڈاکٹر" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240901113816/https://www-dawnnews-tv.translate.goog/news/1239042?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp#ملک-میں-807-لوگوں-کے-لیے-ایک-رجسٹرڈ-ڈاکٹر" class="heading-permalink" aria-hidden="true" title="Permalink"></a> <div style="color: black; text-align: center;" markdown="5"> ’ملک میں 807 لوگوں کے لیے ایک رجسٹرڈ ڈاکٹر‘ </div></h3> <hr> <p>سروے کے مطالعہ سے پتا چلتا ہے کہ ملک میں 807 لوگوں کے لیے ایک رجسٹرڈ ڈاکٹر ہے۔ تاہم تعلیم اور صحت کے دیگر اشاریے تازہ اعداد و شمار نہ ہونے کی وجہ سے 2020-2019 کے Social and living standard measurement survey (پی ایس ایل ایم) سے لیے گئے ہیں۔</p> <p>تعلیم پر ہونے والے اخراجات جی ڈی پی کے تناسب سے 2019 میں 2 فیصد سے کم ہوکراس سال 1.5 فیصد رہے، جو پچھلے سال کے مقابلے میں 0.2 فیصد کم ہیں۔</p> <p>اسی طرح صحت پر خرچ کیے جانے والے اخراجات کے بارے میں سروے نشاندہی کرتا ہے کہ پچھلے سال یہ رقم جی ڈی پی کا ۱یک فیصد تھی، سروے میں پاکستان اسٹاک ایکسچینج کی کارکردگی بہت زبردست رہی، اس میں تقریبا 62 فیصد اضافہ بتایا گیا ہے تاہم اگر کمپنیوں کی تعداد کو دیکھا جائے تو 2022 میں لسٹڈ فرم 530 تھی جبکہ 2024 میں 524 کمپنیاں لسٹڈ ہیں۔</p> <p>مہنگائی کے حوالے سے سروے میں اس بات کا اظہار کیا گیا کہ مہنگائی کی شرح بتدریج کم ہو رہی ہے، مالی سال 2024 میں جولائی تا اپریل تک قیمتوں میں 26 فیصد اضافہ ہوا، جو گزشتہ سال 28.2 فیصد تھا۔ یعنی 100 روپے والی چیز 128کی ہوکر اب 26 فیصد کے اضافہ سے 161.28 روپے ہوگئی ہے۔</p> <p>افراط زر کی وجوہات میں طلب کا رسد سے زیادہ ہونا ایک بنیادی وجہ قرار دیا گیا ہے، مزید یہ کہ بجلی کی قیمتوں اور روپے کی قدرکا انتہائی کم ہونا بھی مہنگائی کا مؤجب ہے۔</p> <p>سروے خدشہ ظاہر کیا گیا ہے کہ بڑھی ہوئی شرح سود سے سرمایہ کاری کی قیمت میں اضافہ ہوگیا ہے جو کہ مہنگائی کا باعث ہوسکتا ہے۔ مہنگائی کے باعث لوگوں کی قوت خرید کم ہوئی ہے۔</p> <p>اقتصادی سروے میں فوڈ اینڈ ایگریکلچر اورگنائزیشن (ایف اے او) کی ایک رپورٹ کے حوالے سے ذکر کیا گیا ہے کہ ایک اوسط پاکستانی خاندان کو صحت بخش خوراک کے لیے کم ازکم ماہانہ 53 ہزار روپے چاہیں، جو تقریبا 82 فیصد پاکستانی خاندان خرید نہیں سکتے!</p> <hr> <h3><a id="-کرنٹ-اکاؤنٹ-خسارہ-50-کروڑ-ڈالر-رہ-گیا" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240901113816/https://www-dawnnews-tv.translate.goog/news/1239042?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp#-کرنٹ-اکاؤنٹ-خسارہ-50-کروڑ-ڈالر-رہ-گیا" class="heading-permalink" aria-hidden="true" title="Permalink"></a> <div style="color: black; text-align: center;" markdown="5"> ’ کرنٹ اکاؤنٹ خسارہ 50 کروڑ ڈالر رہ گیا’ </div></h3> <hr> <p>بین الاقوامی تجارت کے حوالے سے سروے میں اس بات پر اطمینان کا اظہار کیا گیا ہے کہ ایکسپورٹ میں اضافہ اور امپورٹ میں کمی کے باعث کرنٹ اکاؤنٹ خسارہ 4 ارب 10 کروڑ ڈالر سے کم ہوکر 50 کروڑ ڈالر رہ گیا ہے۔</p> <p>مزید یہ کہ آئندہ آنے والے سال میں حکومت پر امید ہے کہ آئی ایم ایف سے کوئی طویل مدتی معاہدہ طے پا جائے گا، جس سے مزید قرضے کا حصول ممکن ہوگا۔</p> <p>سروے میں بتایا گیا کہ حکومتی قرضوں کی مجموعی مالیت مارچ 2024 تک 675 کھرب 25 ارب روپے تک پہنچ گئی ہے۔ جس میں 35.68 فیصد غیر ملکی قرضے شامل ہیں۔</p> <p>سروے میں اس بات پر اطمینان کا اظہار کیاگیا ہے کہ بجٹ خسارے کو پورا کرنے کے لیے جو قرضہ چاہیے تھا اس سال اس کا 88 فیصد اندرونی قرضوں سے حاصل کیا گیا اور حکومت کی کوشش رہی کہ طویل مدتی قرضے حاصل کیے جائیں۔</p> <p>مالی سال 2024 کے ابتدائی 9 ماہ کے دوران ان قرضوں پر ادا کیے جانے والے سود کی مالیت 55 کھرب 17 ارب روپے تھی۔ جس میں سے 48 کھرب 7 ارب روپے ملکی قرضوں پر ادا کیا گیا۔ سود کی رقم کا اس قدر بڑھ جانے کی ایک بنیادی وجہ یہ بتائی گئی ہے کہ ملکی قرضوں کا 74 فیصد اس شرط پر ہے کہ شرح سود میں تبدیلی کے ساتھ ان پر ادا کیے جانے والی سودکی شرح بھی تبدیل ہوجائے گی۔</p> <p></p> <figure class="media sm:w-3/5 w-full media--center "> <div class="media__item "> <picture> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240901113816im_/https://i.dawn.com/large/2024/08/01151435e16f1b2.png?r=151549" alt=""> </picture> </div> </figure> <p></p> <p>سروے میں آبادی کا تخمینہ 24 کروڑ 15 لاکھ لگایا گیا ہے، 39 فیصد آبادی شہروں میں رہائش پذیر ہے، جو جنوبی ایشیائی ممالک میں شہروں میں رہنے والی آبادی کے تناسب کے لحاظ سے سب سے زیادہ ہے۔</p> <p>آبادی کی کثافت 303 افراد فی مربع کلومیٹر ہوگئی ہے۔ جبکہ آبادی میں اضافہ کی شرح 2.55 فیصد ہے۔ جس کا مطلب یہ ہے کہ حقیقی آمدنی کی نمو اس سے زیادہ ہوگی تو ہی عوام الناس کے معیار زندگی میں اضافہ ممکن ہے۔</p> <hr> <h3><a id="بیروزگاری-کی-شرح-63-فیصد" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240901113816/https://www-dawnnews-tv.translate.goog/news/1239042?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp#بیروزگاری-کی-شرح-63-فیصد" class="heading-permalink" aria-hidden="true" title="Permalink"></a> <div style="color: black; text-align: center;" markdown="5"> ’بیروزگاری کی شرح 6.3 فیصد‘ </div></h3> <hr> <p>ملک میں بیروزگاری کی شرح 6.3 فیصد بتائی گئی ہے جو کہ لیبر فورس سروے 2021 سے لی گئی ہے۔ سماجی فلاح و بہبود اور حکومتی سپورٹ کے حوالے سے سروے ڈیٹا بتاتا ہے کہ بینظیر انکم سپورٹ کی مد میں جولائی سے مارچ 313.4 ارب روپے خرچ کیے گئے، جس سے 94 لاکھ افراد استفادہ کر رہے ہیں جن کو 10 ہزار 500 روپے تین ماہ کے خرچے کے لیے دیے گئے۔</p> <p>اسی مدت میں بینظیر تعلیمی وظائف میں 36.9 ارب روپے 22 لاکھ بچوں میں تقسیم کیے گئے۔ غیر سودی قرضوں کی مد میں 12.2 ارب دیے گئے جس سے تقریباً 2 لاکھ 74 ہزار 730 لوگوں نے استفادہ کیا۔جس کا مطلب ہے کہ اوسط 44,407 روپے ایک آدمی کے حصہ میں لون آیا۔</p> <p></p> <figure class="media sm:w-3/5 w-full media--center "> <div class="media__item "> <picture> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240901113816im_/https://i.dawn.com/large/2024/08/01151329c363b54.png?r=151549" alt=""> </picture> </div> </figure> <p></p> <p>تاہم سروے میں اس بات کا بھی اظہار کیا گیا کہ لوگوں کی معاشی حالت بہت خراب ہے، بار بار کے آئی ایم ایف کے پروگرام نے حکومت کو اپنے اخراجات کم کرنے پر مجبور کردیا ہے، ٹیکسوں کی شرح میں اضافہ ہوگیا ہے عوامی فلاح و بہبود پر کیے جانے والے اخراجات بشمول سبسڈی کم ہوگئی ہے جس کی وجہ سے لوگوں کا معیار زندگی اور کم ہوگیا ہے۔</p> <p>معاشی کارکردگی کے اشاریے اس بات کی پر زور دیتے ہیں کہ ملک اندرونی و بیرونی عوامل کی وجہ سے شدید معاشی مشکلات کا شکار ہے۔ ایک طرف قرضوں کا بوجھ اور ان پر دیے جانے والے سود کی ادائیگی کا مسئلہ، مسلسل کم ہوتی ہوئی سرمایہ کاری، تعلیم وصحت کی ناکافی سہولیات جن کے باعث پاکستان کے انسانی ترقی کے اشاریہ ہیومن ڈیولپمنٹ انڈیکس کا مزید کم ہوکر 164 ویں نمبر پر آجانا، جو بھارت، بنگلہ دیش، سری لنکا، مالدیپ، نیپال اور بھوٹان سے بھی کم ہے۔</p> <p>ان سب سے نمٹنے کے لیے ایک مربوط پالیسی کی ضرورت ہے جس میں معاشی استحکام کے لیے سیاسی استحکام کا ہونا ناگزیر ہے۔ ضرورت اس امر کی ہے کہ قلیل مدت اور طویل مدت کے اہداف متعین کیے جائیں۔ ایک آزاد معاشی پالیسی اختیار کی جائے جو صرف ملک کا مفاد کو دیکھتے ہوئے فیصلہ کرے۔</p> </div> <div class="grid 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