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<meta property="og:image:height" content="633" /> <meta property="og:image:alt" content="" /> <meta property="og:locale" content="en_US" /> <meta property="fb:app_id" content="249643311490" /> <meta property="article:publisher" content="https://www.facebook.com/WordPresscom" /> <meta name="twitter:text:title" content="Two central banks" /> <meta name="twitter:image" content="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png?w=640" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" />  <link rel="search" type="application/opensearchdescription+xml" href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/osd.xml" title="Point of Order" /> <link rel="search" type="application/opensearchdescription+xml" href="https://s1.wp.com/opensearch.xml" title="WordPress.com" /> <link rel="pingback" href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/xmlrpc.php"><meta name="application-name" content="Point of Order" /><meta name="msapplication-window" content="width=device-width;height=device-height" /><meta name="msapplication-tooltip" content="Politics and the economy" /><meta name="description" content="Michael Reddell writes - I got curious yesterday about how the Australia/New Zealand real exchange rate had changed over the last decade, and so dug out the data on the changes in the two countries’ CPIs. Over the 10 years from March 2014 to March 2024, New Zealand’s CPI had risen by 30.3 per cent…" /> <link rel="icon" href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=32" sizes="32x32" /> <link rel="icon" href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=192" sizes="192x192" /> <link rel="apple-touch-icon" href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=180" /> <meta name="msapplication-TileImage" content="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/cropped-beehive-wellington-parliament-2842.jpg?w=270" /> </head> <body class="post-template-default single single-post postid-28988 single-format-standard wp-embed-responsive customizer-styles-applied group-blog has-sidebar has-header-image jetpack-reblog-enabled author-hidden has-marketing-bar has-marketing-bar-theme-independent-publisher-2"> <div id="page" class="hfeed site"> <a class="skip-link screen-reader-text" href="#content">Skip to content</a> <div id="hero-header" class="site-hero-section"> <header id="masthead" class="site-header" role="banner"> <div class="inner"> <div class="site-branding"> <p class="site-title"><a href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/" rel="home">Point of Order</a></p> <p class="site-description">Politics and the economy</p> </div> <button class="menu-toggle" aria-controls="primary-menu" aria-expanded="false" id="primary-menu-button"> Menu </button> </div> </header> </div> <nav id="site-navigation" class="main-navigation" role="navigation"> <div class="menu-primary-container"><ul id="primary-menu" class="menu"><li id="menu-item-6" class="menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-6"><a href="/">Home</a></li> <li id="menu-item-7" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-7"><a href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/contact/">Who we are</a></li> </ul></div> </nav> <div id="content-wrapper" class="content-wrapper"> <div id="content" class="site-content"> <div id="primary" class="content-area"> <main id="main" class="site-main" role="main"> <article id="post-28988" class="post-28988 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-the-economy tag-australia tag-michael-reddell tag-monetary-policy tag-mpc"> <header class="entry-header"> <h1 class="entry-title">Two central banks</h1> </header> <div class="entry-meta"> <span class="byline"> <a href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/author/poonzteam5443/" title="Posts by poonzteam5443" rel="author">poonzteam5443</a> </span> <span class="cat-links"> <a href="https://pointofordernz.wordpress.com/category/the-economy/" rel="category tag">The economy</a> </span> <span class="published-on"> <time class="entry-date published updated" datetime="2024-05-17T13:02:11+12:00">May 17, 2024</time> </span> <span class="word-count">2 Minutes</span> </div> <div class="entry-content"> <ul> <li> <h3>Michael Reddell writes – </h3> </li> </ul> <p>I got curious yesterday about how the Australia/New Zealand real exchange rate had changed over the last decade, and so dug out the data on the changes in the two countries’ CPIs. Over the 10 years from March 2014 to March 2024, New Zealand’s CPI had risen by 30.3 per cent and Australia’s CPI had risen by 30.4 per cent.</p> <p>And that piqued my interest because the two countries have different inflation targets: New Zealand’s centred on 2 per cent per annum and Australia’s centred on 2.5 per cent.</p> <p>So I drew myself this chart – </p> <p><span id="more-28988"></span></p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png"><img class="wp-image-71256" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-26.png?w=891" alt="" width="891" height="633" /></a></figure> <p>Over the full 10 years, the two CPIs have increased by almost exactly the same amount, but they haven’t kept pace with each other steadily over that full period. Up to just prior to Covid, the Australian CPI had been increasing faster than New Zealand’s, as one might have expected given that the RBA had been given a higher inflation target than the RBNZ.</p> <p>Now, before anyone objects, I should get in and note that in neither country is there a price level target. But if economies are subject to fairly similar shocks over a period of time one should normally expect a country with a higher inflation target to have experienced a higher cumulative price level increase than a country with a lower target.</p> <p>Over the 10 years here is Australia’s CPI relative to the price level that would have been implied by being consistently at target midpoint</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png"><img class="wp-image-71250" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-24.png?w=752" alt="" width="752" height="570" /></a></figure> <p>and the same chart for New Zealand</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png"><img class="wp-image-71249" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-23.png?w=752" alt="" width="752" height="601" /></a></figure> <p>And in this chart I’ve put it all together</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png"><img loading="lazy" class="wp-image-71251" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-25.png?w=934" alt="" width="934" height="622" /></a></figure> <p>Over the half-decade or so to the end of 2019, the RBA and the RBNZ had both ended up undershooting (on average) their targets by about the same extent. If you look closely, the RBNZ was undershooting more earlier, and the RBA more towards the end of the decade, but there wasn’t a great deal in the difference.</p> <p>But where the difference really becomes apparent is in the years (four of them) since Covid hit. Over that period, the RBNZ has generated/tolerated much more of an increase in the price level, in excess of what is implied by their target, than the RBA did. (And for those – like Orr – who like to try distraction with things like oil shocks, wars and rumours of wars, and supply chain disruptions, Australia faced all those too.)</p> <p>There is a lot of focus in Australia – and apparently reasonably enough – on whether the RBA has yet done enough with monetary policy. It has certainly been puzzling that they reckoned they could get away with materially lower policy rates than in other Anglo countries, in the face of (still) near-record low rates of unemployment and a quite stimulatory fiscal policy. But so far, and overall, they’ve done a bit less badly than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand through the last four years taken together.</p> <p>It remains somewhat remarkable how little serious accountability there has been for serious Reserve Bank policy errors, for which now pretty much everyone (except them) is paying the price. in one form or another.</p> <p>(By the way, for anyone interested, the NZD/AUD exchange rate averaged 0.933 in the March 2014 quarter and 0.932 in the March 2024 quarter, so over that particular 10 year period there was no change in the real exchange rate at all.)</p> <p style="text-align: center"><strong>————————————-</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center"><strong>This article by Michael Reddell <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/05/17/two-central-banks/">was first published on his blog, Croaking Cassandra.</a></strong></p> <p></p> <div id="jp-post-flair" class="sharedaddy sd-like-enabled sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="sharedaddy 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