小行星2024 YR4撞擊地球機率增加至3.1% 危機度歷史新高 #觀測 (235247)

<!doctype html> <html> <head prefix="og: http://ogp.me/ns# fb: http://ogp.me/ns/fb# article: http://ogp.me/ns/article#"> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no"> <meta http-equiv="Content-Security-Policy" content="block-all-mixed-content"> <title>小行星2024 YR4撞擊地球機率增加至3.1% 危機度歷史新高 #觀測 (235247) - Cool3c</title> <meta name="HandheldFriendly" content="true"> <meta name="MobileOptimized" content="width"> <meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes"> <meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-status-bar-style" content="black-translucent"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//www.cool3c.com"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//account.cool3c.com"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//contentparty.org"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//www.w3.org"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//ogp.me"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//smarturl.it"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" href="//www.google-analytics.com"> <link rel="dns-prefetch" 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<div class="row tag"> <div class="col-12"> <ul class="keyword-list list-inline prefix-hashtag"> <li class="list-inline-item type-primary term-category"> <a href="https://www.cool3c.com/category/localnews" title="在地生活" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Keyword-List" data-gtm-label="Item"> 在地生活 </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item type-default term-tag"> <a href="https://www.cool3c.com/tag/53630" title="世界末日" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Keyword-List" data-gtm-label="Item"> 世界末日 </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item type-default term-tag"> <a href="https://www.cool3c.com/tag/99229" title="觀測" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Keyword-List" data-gtm-label="Item"> 觀測 </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item type-default term-tag"> <a href="https://www.cool3c.com/tag/162452" title="歷史新高" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Keyword-List" data-gtm-label="Item"> 歷史新高 </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item type-default term-tag"> <a href="https://www.cool3c.com/tag/162453" title="太空總署" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Keyword-List" data-gtm-label="Item"> 太空總署 </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item type-default term-tag"> <a href="https://www.cool3c.com/tag/162454" title="2024 YR4" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Keyword-List" data-gtm-label="Item"> 2024 YR4 </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item type-default term-tag"> <a href="https://www.cool3c.com/tag/162455" title="99942" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Keyword-List" data-gtm-label="Item"> 99942 </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item type-default term-tag"> <a href="https://www.cool3c.com/tag/162456" title="撞擊地球機率" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Keyword-List" data-gtm-label="Item"> 撞擊地球機率 </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item type-default term-tag"> <a href="https://www.cool3c.com/tag/162457" title="小行星" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Keyword-List" data-gtm-label="Item"> 小行星 </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12"> <div class="tmgad tmgad-type-flux tmgad-new board board-c3c_a_top board-article clearfix" style="min-height: 280px;"> <script type="application/json">{"type":"flux","slot":"\/21870649235\/c3c_a_top","size":[[336,280],[300,250],[1,1]],"mapping":[[[1730,0],[[970,250],[728,90],[660,250],[1,1]]],[[1350,0],[[728,90],[660,250],[1,1]]],[[1250,0],[[660,250],[1,1]]],[[0,0],[[336,280],[300,250],[1,1]]]],"targeting":{"advertising":["0"],"cabinet":["235247"],"type_key":["general"],"type_name":["\u4e00\u822c"],"page_key":["article"],"page_name":["article"],"author_key":["miluie"],"author_name":["\u8a0e\u559c\u5c0f\u59d0"],"category_key":["localnews"],"category_name":["\u5728\u5730\u751f\u6d3b"],"tag_key":["53630","99229","162452","162453","162454","162455","162456","162457"],"tag_name":["\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5","\u89c0\u6e2c","\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8","\u592a\u7a7a\u7e3d\u7f72","2024 YR4","99942","\u649e\u64ca\u5730\u7403\u6a5f\u7387","\u5c0f\u884c\u661f"]},"pre_height":280,"extra_class":[],"name":"c3c_a_top"}</script> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row table-of-contents"> <div class="col-12"> <h2>目錄</h2> <ul> <li> <a href="#h-235247-0" class="gtm-track" data-gtm-category="Article-Page" data-gtm-label="TableOfContents">預測撞擊率史上新高持續觀測仍未定案</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="row content" itemprop="articleBody"> <div class="col-12"> <p>美國國家航空暨太空總署(NASA)預測小行星「2024 YR4」可能在2032年12月22日撞擊地球，發生機率目前為3.1%。小行星2024 YR4是在2024年12月27日被發現，歐洲太空總署(ESA)行星防禦辦公室則表示2024 YR4體積較小，若是撞擊地球不會引發全球災難，最多算是滅城等級小行星。</p> <h3 id="h-235247-0"><span style="color:#f39c12;">預測撞擊率史上新高持續觀測仍未定案</span></h3> <p>小行星2024 YR4撞擊地球機率是史上新高，同時也有0.3%的機率撞上月球，如果撞擊地球，小行星的速度釋放等同800萬噸炸藥，若是撞上月球則有可能會留下直徑2公里的新隕石坑。上次有如此高撞擊機率的小行星是2004年發現的「小行星99942(99942 Apophis)」，中文又翻譯為毀神星、死神星或阿波菲斯，原本推估將在2029年4月14日撞擊地球，機率為2.7%，但後續觀測排除了撞擊地球的可能性，民眾可以在2029年4月13日用肉眼觀測該小行星經過地球。</p> <p>目前預測2024 YR4撞擊地點涵蓋東太平洋、南美洲北部、大西洋、非洲、阿拉伯半島及南亞，情況不像電影「千萬別抬頭」這麼危急，也還不用找鑽油工人上小行星上鑽井埋核彈，小行星的軌跡預測會隨著觀測持續修正，也許最後就會和「小行星99942」一樣只是跟地球擦肩而過。</p> <p><img src="https://sw.cool3c.com/user/46749/2025/324aea8e-7296-450c-b462-1ea2bd241340.jpg?auto=compress&fix=max&w=2560"><br> ▲NASA推測小行星「2024 YR4」有可能在2032年撞擊地球，機率為3.1%為歷史新高。</p> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12"> <div class="tmgad tmgad-type-flux tmgad-new board board-c3c_a_bottom board-article clearfix" style="min-height: 90px;"> <script 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