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href="https://www.alantra.com/alantra-hires-anja-proeve-as-managing-director-to-strengthen-its-global-technology-practice/" class="text-img-grid__items"> <div class="text-img-grid__items_img" style="background-image: url(https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Slide1.png)"> </div> <div class="text-img-grid__items_text"> <h4 class="text-img-grid__items_text_cat">Press Releases</h4> <h3>Alantra hires Anja Proeve as Managing Director to strengthen its global technology practice</h3> <span class="read-more-btn">Read More <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 14.76 8.25"><defs><style>.arc-1{fill:none;stroke:#515962;stroke-miterlimit:10;stroke-width:0.25px;}</style></defs><g id="Layer_2" data-name="Layer 2"><g id="Layer_1-2" data-name="Layer 1"><line class="arc-1" y1="4.12" x2="12.14" y2="4.12"/><polyline class="arc-1" points="10.93 2.92 12.14 4.13 10.93 5.33"/><path class="arc-1 circle-path" d="M7.81,1.3A4,4,0,1,1,7.81,7"/></g></g></svg></span> </div> </a> </li>  </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div>  </div>  <main> <section class="main-banner wow fadeIn " style="background-image: url(https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/web-background-10.png);visibility:hidden"> <div class="breadcrumbs-wrapper"> <div class="holder"> <div class="breadcrumbs"> <p>  Macro Update – November 2024 </p> </div> </div> </div>  <div class="main-banner__title wow fadeIn" data-wow-delay="0.3s"> <div class="holder"> <h1> Macro Update – November 2024 </h1> </div> </div>  </section>  <section class="page--intro wow fadeIn " style="visibility:hidden"> <div class="holder holder--alt"> <p><em>Trump’s decisive election victory, coupled with Republican control of Congress, introduces significant uncertainty to global markets. Over the coming weeks, we will closely monitor his policy direction, particularly on tariffs, immigration, and fiscal spending.</em></p> <p><em>While disruptive scenarios remain a risk, our central case assumes a “moderate Trump” presidency. This would support stable growth in the U.S. and help mitigate potential global economic volatility. Under this scenario, the Eurozone could see a modest rebound, while emerging Asia continues its strong performance.</em></p> </div> </section>  <hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots"/> <section class="page--intro wow fadeIn " style="visibility:hidden"> <div class="holder holder--alt"> <p><strong>U.S.</strong></p> <p>U.S. macroeconomic data shows resilience, with growth expected to align with its medium-term potential. Current dollar levels and long-term interest rates should moderate expansion, easing wage pressures and core inflation.</p> <p>The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a measured approach, with rates moving toward a neutral range of 3.5–4%. We anticipate this could be achieved as early as Q1 next year, creating a stable environment for continued investment and consumption. However, the risk of aggressive fiscal expansion or tariff hikes by Trump could disrupt this outlook.</p> </div> </section>  <div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="750" height="534" src="https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-3.png" alt="" class="wp-image-34468" style="width:527px;height:auto" srcset="https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-3.png 750w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-3-300x214.png 300w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-3-1x1.png 1w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-3-200x142.png 200w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-3-500x356.png 500w" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" /></figure></div> <section class="page--intro wow fadeIn " style="visibility:hidden"> <div class="holder holder--alt"> <p><strong>Eurozone and UK</strong></p> <p>The Eurozone is expected to benefit from improving private consumption fundamentals, including low unemployment, rising wages, and a recovery in consumer sentiment. Additionally, the ECB is likely to maintain a dovish stance to address risks from Trump’s potential policies.</p> <p>In the UK, economic activity remains stable, supported by political stability and credible fiscal policies. The government’s increased focus on public investment further strengthens its position, making it relatively insulated from potential global disruptions.</p> </div> </section>  <div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="750" height="534" src="https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-4.png" alt="" class="wp-image-34469" style="width:565px;height:auto" srcset="https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-4.png 750w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-4-300x214.png 300w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-4-1x1.png 1w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-4-200x142.png 200w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-4-500x356.png 500w" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" /></figure></div> <section class="page--intro wow fadeIn " style="visibility:hidden"> <div class="holder holder--alt"> <p><strong>Asia</strong></p> <div class="flex max-w-full flex-col flex-grow"> <div class="min-h-8 text-message flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 whitespace-normal break-words [.text-message+&]:mt-5" dir="auto" data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="da8dd635-d8bc-4592-b8e3-ff34b82c05a7"> <div class="flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[3px]"> <div class="markdown prose w-full break-words dark:prose-invert light"> <p>Emerging Asia continues to show robust growth and macroeconomic stability. Inflation is well-managed, and fiscal positions are healthier than many developed economies.</p> <p>China’s stimulus measures, particularly those targeting private consumption, are starting to yield results, supporting economic activity. In Japan, rising wages and stable inflation suggest above-potential growth in the coming quarters, though the Bank of Japan is expected to remain cautious with monetary policy.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section>  <div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="750" height="534" src="https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-5.png" alt="" class="wp-image-34470" style="width:584px;height:auto" srcset="https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-5.png 750w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-5-300x214.png 300w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-5-1x1.png 1w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-5-200x142.png 200w, https://www.alantra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/MACRO-5-500x356.png 500w" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" /></figure></div> <section class="page--intro wow fadeIn " style="visibility:hidden"> <div class="holder holder--alt"> <p><strong>Scenario of an ‘aggressive Trump’ and other risks</strong></p> <div class="flex max-w-full flex-col flex-grow"> <div class="min-h-8 text-message flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 whitespace-normal break-words [.text-message+&]:mt-5" dir="auto" data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="da8dd635-d8bc-4592-b8e3-ff34b82c05a7"> <div class="flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[3px]"> <div class="markdown prose w-full break-words dark:prose-invert light"> <ul> <li>Aggressive trade policies by Trump, which could trigger retaliatory actions, disrupt global trade, and increase inflation.</li> <li>Fiscal imbalances in the U.S., where unchecked tax cuts could lead to higher deficits without meaningful economic growth.</li> <li>Geopolitical uncertainties, including Trump’s potential approaches to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.</li> <li>Despite these risks, our central case of a “moderate Trump” remains the most likely scenario, supporting cautious optimism in global markets.</li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section>  <hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots"/> <section class="page--intro wow fadeIn " style="visibility:hidden"> <div class="holder holder--alt"> <p><strong>Equities</strong>: We remain moderately constructive on equities, favouring U.S. small- and mid-caps and emerging Asia. UK equities also offer relative resilience in this environment.</p> <p><strong>Government bonds:</strong> German Bunds around 2.40–2.50% yield are attractive as a hedge against risks, while we continue to avoid long-duration U.S. Treasuries.</p> <p><strong>Corporate bonds:</strong> High-quality corporate credit remains a preferred choice over sovereign bonds with weaker fundamentals.</p> <p><strong>Currencies</strong>: The U.S. dollar and developed-market currencies with strong fundamentals, such as GBP and AUD, remain attractive hedges. Select emerging-market currencies like INR and IDR also offer upside potential.</p> </div> </section>  <hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots"/> <section class="page--intro wow fadeIn " style="visibility:hidden"> <div class="holder holder--alt"> <p><em>This report has been prepared by AMCHOR Investment Strategies SGIIC, S.A. (“AMCHOR IS”) an entity participated by the Alantra Group and incorporated as an investment firm authorized and supervised by the CNMV, registration number 273 with registered office at Calle Velázquez Nº 166, 28002 Madrid (Spain). </em></p> <p><em>This report is addressed only to professional investors for internal and exclusive use. The information contained herein shall only be distributed as permitted by applicable law and AMCHOR IS and the Alantra Group specifically forbid the redistribution of this document in whole or in part without its prior written permission.</em></p> <p><em>Nothing in this report constitutes a representation from AMCHOR IS or the Alantra Group that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor it is intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities or financial markets referred to in this report.</em></p> <p><em>AMCHOR IS and the Alantra Group do not (i) endorse, guarantee nor represent that investors will obtain profits nor (ii) accept any liability for any investment that the recipients may carry out and incur in losses arising from adopting the recommendations included in this report or its contents. Investments involve risks and investors should exercise prudence in making their investment decisions. This information has been extracted from public sources that AMCHOR IS considers reliable and is not responsible for its truthfulness or accuracy. This report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions, hypothesis and forecasts. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. AMCHOR IS and the Alantra Group are under no obligation or keep current the information contained in this report.</em></p> <p><em>The investor should note that the financial market is fluctuating and as such is subject to variations. The price of investments (which may be quoted in illiquid markets) may change and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. The figures contained herein relate to the past. 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