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<!DOCTYPE html><html xmlns:og="http://opengraphprotocol.org/schema/" lang="en-US"><head> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8"> <meta name="HandheldFriendly" content="True"> <meta name="viewport" content="initial-scale=1, maximum-scale=1, user-scalable=no, width=device-width"> <meta name="format-detection" content="telephone=no"> <meta property="og:title" content="New Zealand’s Breakthrough Free Trade Deal With the Gulf"><meta property="twitter:title" content="New Zealand’s Breakthrough Free Trade Deal With the Gulf"><meta name="description" content="After nearly two decades of talks, and numerous diplomatic twists and turns, the country has sealed an FTA with the Gulf Cooperation Council."><meta property="og:description" content="After nearly two decades of talks, and numerous diplomatic twists and turns, the country has sealed an FTA with the Gulf Cooperation Council."><meta property="twitter:description" content="After nearly two decades of talks, and numerous diplomatic twists and turns, the country has sealed an FTA with the Gulf Cooperation Council."><meta property="og:image"" content="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/td-story-s-2/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg"><meta property="twitter:image"" content="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/td-story-s-2/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg"><meta name="url" itemprop="url" content="https://thediplomat.com/2024/11/new-zealands-breakthrough-free-trade-deal-with-the-gulf/"><meta property="og:url" content="https://thediplomat.com/2024/11/new-zealands-breakthrough-free-trade-deal-with-the-gulf/"><meta property="twitter:url" content="https://thediplomat.com/2024/11/new-zealands-breakthrough-free-trade-deal-with-the-gulf/"><meta name="keywords" content="Economy,Oceania,New Zealand,New Zealand economy,New Zealand trade policy,New Zealand-GCC FTA,New Zealand-Gulf relations,New Zealand-UAE trade deal"/><meta name="news_keywords" content="Economy,Oceania,New Zealand,New Zealand economy,New Zealand trade policy,New Zealand-GCC FTA,New Zealand-Gulf relations,New Zealand-UAE trade deal"/><meta property="article:tag" content="Economy"/><meta property="article:tag" content="Oceania"/><meta property="article:tag" content="New Zealand"/><meta property="article:tag" content="New Zealand economy"/><meta property="article:tag" content="New Zealand trade policy"/><meta property="article:tag" content="New Zealand-GCC FTA"/><meta property="article:tag" content="New Zealand-Gulf relations"/><meta property="article:tag" content="New Zealand-UAE trade deal"/><meta property="og:type" content="article"><meta property="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <script type="application/ld+json">{"@context": "https://schema.org","@type": "NewsArticle","headline": "New Zealand’s Breakthrough Free Trade Deal With the Gulf","description": "After nearly two decades of talks, and numerous diplomatic twists and turns, the country has sealed an FTA with the Gulf Cooperation Council.","image": [{"@context": "https://schema.org/","@type": "ImageObject","contentUrl":"https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/td-story-s-2/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg","creditText": "Depositphotos","copyrightNotice": "Depositphotos","license": "https://depositphotos.com/284198402/stock-photo-new-zealand-flag-waving-against.html","acquireLicensePage": "https://depositphotos.com/284198402/stock-photo-new-zealand-flag-waving-against.html","representativeOfPage": "True" }], "datePublished": "2024-11-01T02:50:00Z","dateModified": "2024-11-01T09:52:42Z","copyrightYear": "2024","author": [{"@type": "Person", "name": "Geoffrey Miller", "url": "https://thediplomat.com/authors/geoffrey-miller/"}],"publisher": {"@id": "https://thediplomat.com/#publisher","name": "The Diplomat","legalName": "Diplomat Media Inc.","description": "Asia-Pacific’s leading current affairs magazine.","url": "https://thediplomat.com","email": "support@thediplomat.com","logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/themes/td_theme_v3/assets/logo/diplomat_logo_amp.jpg", "width": 600, "height": 60 },"sameAs": [ "https://www.facebook.com/diplomatmagazine", "https://twitter.com/Diplomat_APAC", "https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-diplomat" ]},"isAccessibleForFree": "False","hasPart": { "@type": "WebPageElement", "isAccessibleForFree": "False", "cssSelector" : ".jsonld-markup-paywall-content" },"articleBody": "New Zealand’s new free trade agreement (FTA) with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a major win for both sides. Todd McClay, New Zealand’s trade minister, announced the long-awaited deal on October 31 with his counterparts in Doha, Qatar. It is a remarkable success that is both years in the making and surprisingly sudden; preparatory meetings for the FTA talks began in 2006. The GCC is made up of six countries that are among the world’s richest: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). For New Zealand, the Gulf states are both highly lucrative markets in themselves, but also an invaluable gateway to the wider Middle East. Even without an FTA, the bloc is already New Zealand’s seventh-biggest export market, buying NZ$2.6 billion ($1.6 billion) of exports in the year to June. New Zealand’s dairy and meat products are particularly strong sellers in the Gulf, boosted by an appetite for luxury and a quest for food security in desert climates. The Gulf mainly exports oil-based products to New Zealand in exchange, making for a highly complementary partnership. While tariffs for selling into the GCC are not high – most goods attract a tariff of just 5 percent – the FTA will carry a cachet worth far more than its face value. The deal with New Zealand is just the third free trade agreement to be agreed by the GCC. And the Gulf’s only two existing FTAs – with Singapore and the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA, a grouping of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland – were signed more than 15 years ago. New Zealand began its own negotiations with the GCC around the same time as Singapore and EFTA, and initially made rapid progress. After formal negotiations began in 2007, an agreement at the officials’ level was reached just two years later, in October 2009. The deal was expected to be signed at the ministerial level in the first half of 2010, probably during a planned visit by New Zealand Prime Minister John Key to the Gulf in April of that year. However, Key never made it. After three personnel were killed in a Royal New Zealand Air Force helicopter crash near Wellington on April 25, Anzac Day, the prime minister cut short his overseas trip to attend the funerals at home. Key’s absence certainly did not help, but it wasn’t the real reason why the FTA ran aground. Saudi Arabia, the biggest of the Gulf states by both area and population, was never on Key’s draft itinerary. Tim Groser, then the New Zealand trade minister, headed to Riyadh and found himself at the receiving end of understandable Saudi disappointment and frustration over New Zealand’s ongoing moratorium on live sheep exports that had been in place since 2003. A prominent Saudi businessman, Sheikh Hmood Ali Al Khalaf, felt hard done by after investing heavily in a New Zealand farm that focused on live exports to the Gulf. For years, New Zealand had suggested that live exports could eventually resume, but talks between Wellington and Riyadh had gone nowhere. New Zealand’s relations with influential Saudi Arabia hit an all-time low point after the 2010 troubles. But New Zealand’s foreign minister at the time, Murray McCully, was determined to find a way forward that would make the GCC free trade deal possible. Working with officials, he hatched a plan that became known as the Saudi Arabia Food Security Partnership, or more informally, the “Saudi sheep deal.” The idea rested on a simple principle: while New Zealand had banned live sheep exports for slaughter, at the time exports were still permitted for breeding. McCully’s plan was to send live sheep to eastern Saudi Arabia for a breeding program on a model farm that would also showcase the best of New Zealand’s agricultural technology and farming practices. The New Zealand taxpayer funded the deal to the tune of NZ$11.5 million. But unintended consequences, including the deaths of hundreds of lambs in the Saudi desert, were revealed by New Zealand media in 2015. The Saudi sheep deal caused a political firestorm in New Zealand that dragged on for months. Political pressure from opposition parties even led to an official inquiry by the auditor-general, who eventually cleared the foreign minister and others of any wrongdoing in late 2016. Still, the Saudis appeared greatly impressed by the efforts put in by McCully to improve the relationship – and probably also by the amount of political capital that he was willing to burn on the sheep scheme. Saudi Arabia opened an embassy in Wellington in 2017, reciprocating New Zealand’s own mission in Riyadh, which had opened in 1985. New Zealand’s bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia were firmly on the mend – but the FTA remained tantalizingly out of reach. This time, relations between the Gulf countries themselves hit the rocks. In 2017, a feud that had been slowly brewing since the 2011 Arab Spring culminated in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE suddenly cutting off all trade and diplomatic ties with fellow GCC member Qatar. The extreme boycott – which saw Qatari nationals expelled from the three other Gulf countries overnight – was not lifted until 2021. Intra-Gulf relations have slowly but steadily healed since then, as evidenced by the decision to conclude the NZ-GCC FTA in Qatar. After a decade-long hiatus, the formal GCC FTA negotiation process with New Zealand suddenly resumed in March 2022. But even as recently as last year, a free trade agreement with the GCC still seemed like a more long-term goal, judging from the non-committal signals coming out of Riyadh when New Zealand’s then-Trade Minister Damien O’Connor visited the GCC Secretariat in August 2023. Meanwhile, with progress on the GCC deal seemingly deadlocked, New Zealand had become more open to other options. In late 2021, the UAE invited New Zealand to negotiate a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). New Zealand initially demurred, worried that a side-agreement with the UAE would upset the wider GCC and particularly Saudi Arabia. Still, the CEPA was attractive because it would at least deliver FTA-like benefits, as well as expanded cooperation in other areas such as investment, with a powerful GCC member. The UAE remains New Zealand’s biggest export market in the Gulf, although Saudi Arabia is not far behind. After rapidly signing CEPAs with countries ranging from India to Israel, the UAE concluded negotiations on a CEPA with New Zealand in September of this year. Behind the scenes, Abu Dhabi’s new CEPA strategy clearly became a catalyst for reviving the wider GCC FTA process. The UAE ignited a desire for greater progress among the other five fiercely competitive GCC members. They did not want, and could not afford, to be left behind in the race for new trade deals. New Zealand’s GCC FTA was back on the table. It has now been quickly sewn up. A vital clue that a deal was in the offing came during September’s announcement of the UAE CEPA in Wellington. In response to media questioning on how the bilateral CEPA would impact the GCC FTA, UAE Trade Minister Dr. Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi said, “We work on both tracks and usually the minute we conclude the bilateral, it speeds up the GCC track. So I’m sure this is going to even move the GCC track much faster.” And so it has turned out. Ironically, the same intra-Gulf rivalry that had once hindered the completion of the FTA has become a major factor in its success. On the New Zealand end, it also has probably not hurt that a center-right government led by the National Party is back in power – the same party that had invested so much time and energy into the agreement in the mid-2010s. Still, the FTA is a bipartisan achievement: the groundbreaking work in engaging with the Gulf in early 2000s was undertaken by the Labor Party’s long-serving foreign and then trade minister, Phil Goff. From the GCC's perspective, successfully concluding a new deal with a small Western country will help to build confidence and credibility as the bloc looks to sign deals with much bigger fish such as the United Kingdom and the European Union. While New Zealand has traditionally focused its interests on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Wellington’s interest in the other Gulf states is growing. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani visited Wellington on a surprise trip in August, during which the FTA was almost certainly the main topic of discussion. There will no doubt be opportunities to build valuable and much-needed deeper ties with Qatar and the other three GCC members – Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman – in the years to come. Above all, New Zealand’s free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council has been a lesson in strategic patience. A new chapter is beginning – and exciting opportunities await. This article was originally published by the Democracy Project, which aims to enhance New Zealand’s democracy and public life by promoting critical thinking, analysis, debate, and engagement in politics and society.","inLanguage": "en"}</script> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "Organization", "@id": "https://thediplomat.com/#publisher", "name": "The Diplomat", "legalName": "Diplomat Media Inc.", "description": "Asia-Pacific’s leading current affairs magazine.", "url": "https://thediplomat.com", "email": "support@thediplomat.com", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/themes/td_theme_v3/assets/logo/diplomat_logo_amp.jpg", "width": 600, "height": 60 }, "sameAs": [ "https://www.facebook.com/diplomatmagazine", "https://twitter.com/Diplomat_APAC", "https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-diplomat" ] } </script> <title>New Zealand’s Breakthrough Free Trade Deal With the Gulf – The Diplomat</title> <link 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class="td-img td-post__img"><img class="swiper-lazy" alt="Life in Ladakh Along the Disputed Sino-Indian Border" title="Life in Ladakh Along the Disputed Sino-Indian Border" sizes="58px" data-srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/td-list-xs-1/thediplomat_2024-11-12-125656.jpg 58w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/td-list-xs-2/thediplomat_2024-11-12-125656.jpg 116w" data-src="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/td-list-xs-1/thediplomat_2024-11-12-125656.jpg" src="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/themes/td_theme_v3/assets/img-paceholder_square.gif"></figure><h5>Photo Essays</h5><h4>Life in Ladakh Along the Disputed Sino-Indian Border</h4></a></div><div class="swiper-slide"><a href="/2024/11/africa-india-ties-the-continents-next-big-relationship-or-over-hyped/" class="td-post"><figure class="td-img td-post__img"><img class="swiper-lazy" alt="Africa-India Ties: The Continent’s Next Big Relationship or Over-Hyped?" title="Africa-India Ties: The Continent’s Next Big Relationship or Over-Hyped?" sizes="58px" data-srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/td-list-xs-1/thediplomat_2024-11-08-185434.jpg 58w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/td-list-xs-2/thediplomat_2024-11-08-185434.jpg 116w" data-src="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/td-list-xs-1/thediplomat_2024-11-08-185434.jpg" src="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/themes/td_theme_v3/assets/img-paceholder_square.gif"></figure><h5>Diplomacy</h5><h4>Africa-India Ties: The Continent’s Next Big Relationship or Over-Hyped?</h4></a></div></div><div class="td-swiper-button td-swiper-button--prev swiper-button-disabled"><svg height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M0 0h24v24H0z" fill="none"/> <path d="M20 11H7.83l5.59-5.59L12 4l-8 8 8 8 1.41-1.41L7.83 13H20v-2z"/> </svg></div><div class="td-swiper-button td-swiper-button--next" > <svg height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="24" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M0 0h24v24H0z" fill="none"/> <path d="M12 4l-1.41 1.41L16.17 11H4v2h12.17l-5.58 5.59L12 20l8-8z"/> </svg></div ><div class="td-swiper-pagination"></div></div></section><aside id="ad-publift-article-header" class="td-ad-container--labeled"> <div data-actirise-slot="top-page" class="device-mobile device-tablet device-desktop ads"></div> <a href="/subscriptions/" class="td-no-ad-link tda-link tda-nowrap">Subscribe for ads-free reading</a> </aside> <div id="td-23-body" class="td-viewport"> <div id="td-23-story-main"> <main id="td-23-story--center"> <header id="td-story-head"> <h3 id="td-kicker"> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/category/oceania/"><span>Oceania</span></a><span> | </span><a href="https://thediplomat.com/topics/economy/" class="td-secondary">Economy</a><span> | </span><a href="https://thediplomat.com/regions/oceania-region/" class="td-secondary">Oceania</a> </h3> <h1 id="td-headline"> New Zealand’s Breakthrough Free Trade Deal With the Gulf </h1> <div id="td-lead"><p>After nearly two decades of talks, and numerous diplomatic twists and turns, the country has sealed an FTA with the Gulf Cooperation Council.</p> </div> <div id="td-meta"> <aside class="td-story-meta__img"> <figure class="td-img"><img alt="Geoffrey Miller" title="Geoffrey Miller" sizes="58px" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/sizes/td-list-xs-1/thediplomat_2021-07-29-5.jpg 58w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/sizes/td-list-xs-2/thediplomat_2021-07-29-5.jpg 116w" src="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/sizes/td-list-xs-1/thediplomat_2021-07-29-5.jpg"></figure> </aside> <div class="td-story-meta__main"> <div class="td-author">By <a href="https://thediplomat.com/authors/geoffrey-miller/" ><span>Geoffrey Miller</span></a></div> <div class="td-date">November 01, 2024</div> </div> <aside class="td-share"> <div class="td-share__btn td-share__btn--facebook" data-text="New Zealand’s Breakthrough Free Trade Deal With the Gulf" data-url="https://thediplomat.com/2024/11/new-zealands-breakthrough-free-trade-deal-with-the-gulf/"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="48" height="48" viewBox="0 0 48 48"><path d="M19.33 46V25.93h-6.755v-7.822h6.754v-5.77C19.33 5.646 23.417 2 29.39 2c2.86 0 5.318.213 6.035.308v6.996l-4.142.002c-3.248 0-3.876 1.543-3.876 3.808v4.994h7.745l-1.008 7.822h-6.737V46H19.33z"/></svg> </div> <div class="td-share__btn td-share__btn--twitter" data-text="New Zealand’s Breakthrough Free Trade Deal With the Gulf @Diplomat_APAC" data-url="https://thediplomat.com/2024/11/new-zealands-breakthrough-free-trade-deal-with-the-gulf/"> <svg height="48" viewBox="0 0 48 48" width="48" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path 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M40.9,38.9h-7.1V27.8c0-2.7,0-6.1-3.7-6.1s-4.3,2.9-4.3,5.9v11.3h-7.1V16h6.8v3.1h0.1c0.9-1.8,3.3-3.7,6.7-3.7c7.2,0,8.5,4.7,8.5,10.9L40.9,38.9z"/></svg> </div> <div class="td-share__btn td-share__btn--print"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24"> <path d="M19 8H5c-1.66 0-3 1.34-3 3v6h4v4h12v-4h4v-6c0-1.66-1.34-3-3-3zm-3 11H8v-5h8v5zm3-7c-.55 0-1-.45-1-1s.45-1 1-1 1 .45 1 1-.45 1-1 1zm-1-9H6v4h12V3z"/> <path d="M0 0h24v24H0z" fill="none"/> </svg> </div> </aside> </div> </header><div id="td-story-body"></div><figure id="td-story-image" class="td-media td-media--story"><div class="td-img"><img alt="New Zealand’s Breakthrough Free Trade Deal With the Gulf" title="New Zealand’s Breakthrough Free Trade Deal With the Gulf" sizes="(min-width: 1320px and min-resolution: 100dpi) 1892px, (min-width: 1320px) 946px, (min-width: 1158px and min-resolution: 100dpi) 1568px, (min-width: 1158px) 784px, (min-width: 996px and min-resolution: 100dpi) 1244px, (min-width: 996px) 622px, calc(100vw - 48px)" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg 300w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg 300w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/td-story-s-2/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg 600w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/medium/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg 946w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/medium_large/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg 1244w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/large/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg 1568w" src="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/sizes/td-story-s-1/thediplomat_2021-09-19.jpg"></div><figcaption class="td-caption"><span>Credit: <a href="https://depositphotos.com/284198402/stock-photo-new-zealand-flag-waving-against.html" target="_blank">Depositphotos</a></span></figcaption></figure> <aside id="ad-publift-body-before" class="td-ad-container--labeled"> <a href="/subscriptions/" class="td-no-ad-link tda-link tda-nowrap">Subscribe for ads-free reading</a> </aside> <section id="tda-gated-body" class="td-23-story-body td-prose tda-gated tda-gated--locked" data-pid="p276956"> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">New Zealand’s new free trade agreement (FTA) with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a major win for both sides. Todd McClay, New Zealand’s trade minister, </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand-concludes-high-quality-trade-deal-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc"><span style="font-weight: 400;">announced</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> the long-awaited deal on October 31 with his counterparts in Doha, Qatar. It is a remarkable success that is both years in the making and surprisingly sudden; </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/goff-announces-new-free-trade-agreement-negotiations"><span style="font-weight: 400;">preparatory meetings</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> for the FTA talks began in 2006.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The GCC is made up of six countries that are among the world’s richest: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). For New Zealand, the Gulf states are both highly lucrative markets in themselves, but also an invaluable gateway to the wider Middle East.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Even without an FTA, the bloc is </span><a href="https://statisticsnz.shinyapps.io/trade_dashboard/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">already</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> New Zealand’s seventh-biggest export market, buying NZ$2.6 billion ($1.6 billion) of exports in the year to June. New Zealand’s dairy and meat products are particularly strong sellers in the Gulf, boosted by an appetite for luxury and a quest for food security in desert climates. The Gulf mainly exports oil-based products to New Zealand in exchange, making for a highly complementary partnership.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">While tariffs for selling into the GCC are not high – most goods attract a tariff of just 5 percent – the FTA will carry a cachet worth far more than its face value. The deal with New Zealand is just the third free trade agreement to be agreed by the GCC. And the Gulf’s only two </span><a href="https://www.moec.gov.ae/en/-free-trade-agreements"><span style="font-weight: 400;">existing</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> FTAs – with Singapore and the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA, a grouping of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland – were signed more than 15 years ago.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">New Zealand began its own negotiations with the GCC around the same time as Singapore and EFTA, and initially made rapid progress. After formal negotiations </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand-hosts-first-round-gulf-states-free-trade-talks"><span style="font-weight: 400;">began</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> in 2007, an agreement at the officials’ level was reached just two years later, in October 2009.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The deal was </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/gulf-states-trade-negotiations-open-new-middle-east-markets"><span style="font-weight: 400;">expected</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> to be signed at the ministerial level in the first half of 2010, probably during a planned visit by New Zealand Prime Minister John Key to the Gulf in April of that year. However, Key never made it. After three personnel were </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/pm-saddened-air-force-helicopter-tragedy"><span style="font-weight: 400;">killed</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> in a Royal New Zealand Air Force helicopter crash near Wellington on April 25, Anzac Day, the prime minister cut short his overseas trip to attend the funerals at home.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Key’s absence certainly did not help, but it wasn’t the real reason why the FTA ran aground. Saudi Arabia, the biggest of the Gulf states by both area and population, was never on Key’s draft </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/pm-visits-turkey-gallipoli-anniversary-gulf-states"><span style="font-weight: 400;">itinerary</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. Tim Groser, then the New Zealand trade minister, headed to Riyadh and found himself at the receiving end of understandable Saudi disappointment and frustration over New Zealand’s ongoing moratorium on live sheep exports that had been in place since 2003.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A prominent Saudi businessman, Sheikh Hmood Ali Al Khalaf, felt hard done by after investing heavily in a New Zealand farm that focused on live exports to the Gulf. For years, New Zealand had suggested that live exports could eventually resume, but talks between Wellington and Riyadh had gone nowhere.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">New Zealand’s relations with influential Saudi Arabia hit an all-time low point after the 2010 troubles. But New Zealand’s foreign minister at the time, Murray McCully, was determined to find a way forward that would make the GCC free trade deal possible. Working with officials, he hatched a plan that became known as the Saudi Arabia Food Security Partnership, or more informally, the “Saudi sheep deal.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The idea rested on a simple principle: while New Zealand had banned live sheep exports for slaughter, at the time exports were still permitted for breeding. McCully’s plan was to send live sheep to eastern Saudi Arabia for a breeding program on a model farm that would also showcase the best of New Zealand’s agricultural technology and farming practices.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The New Zealand taxpayer funded the deal to the tune of NZ$11.5 million. But unintended consequences, including the deaths of hundreds of lambs in the Saudi desert, were revealed by New Zealand media in 2015. The Saudi sheep deal caused a political firestorm in New Zealand that dragged on for months. Political pressure from opposition parties even led to an official </span><a href="https://oag.parliament.nz/2016/food-security"><span style="font-weight: 400;">inquiry</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> by the auditor-general, who eventually cleared the foreign minister and others of any wrongdoing in late 2016.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Still, the Saudis appeared greatly impressed by the efforts put in by McCully to improve the relationship – and probably also by the amount of political capital that he was willing to burn on the sheep scheme. Saudi Arabia </span><a href="https://www.spa.gov.sa/w458151"><span style="font-weight: 400;">opened</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> an embassy in Wellington in 2017, reciprocating New Zealand’s own mission in Riyadh, which had opened in 1985. New Zealand’s bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia were firmly on the mend – but the FTA remained tantalizingly out of reach.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This time, relations between the Gulf countries themselves hit the rocks. In 2017, a </span><a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/434112/end-of-feud-between-arab-countries-and-qatar-may-restore-nz-s-hopes-for-trade-deal"><span style="font-weight: 400;">feud</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> that had been slowly brewing since the 2011 Arab Spring culminated in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE suddenly cutting off all trade and diplomatic ties with fellow GCC member Qatar. The extreme boycott – which saw Qatari nationals expelled from the three other Gulf countries overnight – was not lifted until 2021. Intra-Gulf relations have slowly but steadily healed since then, as evidenced by the decision to conclude the NZ-GCC FTA in Qatar.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">After a decade-long hiatus, the formal GCC FTA negotiation process with New Zealand suddenly resumed in March 2022. But even as recently as last year, a free trade agreement with the GCC still seemed like a more long-term goal, judging from the non-committal </span><a href="https://democracyproject.nz/2023/09/06/geoffrey-miller-new-zealand-changes-tack-in-the-gulf/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">signals</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> coming out of Riyadh when New Zealand’s then-Trade Minister Damien O’Connor visited the GCC Secretariat in August 2023.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Meanwhile, with progress on the GCC deal seemingly deadlocked, New Zealand had become more open to other options. In late 2021, the UAE invited New Zealand to negotiate a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). New Zealand initially demurred, worried that a side-agreement with the UAE would upset the wider GCC and particularly Saudi Arabia.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Still, the </span><a href="https://democracyproject.nz/2024/09/26/geoffrey-miller-new-zealands-trade-deal-with-the-uae-could-unlock-middle-east/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">CEPA</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> was attractive because it would at least deliver FTA-like benefits, as well as expanded cooperation in other areas such as investment, with a powerful GCC member. The UAE remains New Zealand’s biggest export market in the Gulf, although Saudi Arabia is not far behind. After rapidly signing CEPAs with countries ranging from India to Israel, the UAE concluded negotiations on a CEPA with New Zealand in September of this year.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Behind the scenes, Abu Dhabi’s new CEPA strategy clearly became a catalyst for reviving the wider GCC FTA process. The UAE ignited a desire for greater progress among the other five fiercely competitive GCC members. They did not want, and could not afford, to be left behind in the race for new trade deals. New Zealand’s GCC FTA was back on the table. It has now been quickly sewn up. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A vital clue that a deal was in the offing came during September’s announcement of the UAE CEPA in Wellington. In </span><a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/529097/nz-strikes-its-fastest-ever-trade-deal-with-the-united-arab-emirates"><span style="font-weight: 400;">response</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> to media questioning on how the bilateral CEPA would impact the GCC FTA, UAE Trade Minister Dr. Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi said, “We work on both tracks and usually the minute we conclude the bilateral, it speeds up the GCC track. So I’m sure this is going to even move the GCC track much faster.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And so it has turned out.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ironically, the same intra-Gulf rivalry that had once hindered the completion of the FTA has become a major factor in its success. On the New Zealand end, it also has probably not hurt that a center-right government led by the National Party is back in power – the same party that had invested so much time and energy into the agreement in the mid-2010s. Still, the FTA is a bipartisan achievement: the groundbreaking work in engaging with the Gulf in early 2000s was undertaken by the Labor Party’s long-serving foreign and then trade minister, Phil Goff.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">From the GCC’s perspective, successfully concluding a new deal with a small Western country will help to build confidence and credibility as the bloc looks to sign deals with much bigger fish such as the United Kingdom and the European Union.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">While New Zealand has traditionally focused its interests on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Wellington’s interest in the other Gulf states is growing. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/prime-minister-qatar-visit-new-zealand"><span style="font-weight: 400;">visited</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Wellington on a surprise trip in August, during which the FTA was almost certainly the main topic of discussion. There will no doubt be opportunities to build valuable and much-needed deeper ties with Qatar and the other three GCC members – Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman – in the years to come.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Above all, New Zealand’s free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council has been a lesson in strategic patience. A new chapter is beginning – and exciting opportunities await.</span></p> <p><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">This article was originally published by the </span></i><a href="https://democracyproject.nz/2024/11/01/geoffrey-miller-new-zealands-breakthrough-free-trade-deal-with-the-gulf/"><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Democracy Project</span></i></a><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">, which aims to enhance New Zealand’s democracy and public life by promoting critical thinking, analysis, debate, and engagement in politics and society.</span></i></p> </section> <aside id="tda-gated-appendix" class="tda-gated-appendix"> <div class="tda-gated-login"><b>Already have an account? <label for="td-account-modal_trigger" class="tda-link tda-nowrap">Log in</label>.</b></div> <div class="tda-gated-box"> <div class="tda-gated-box__ribbon">You have reached the limit of <b>4 free articles</b> this month.</div> <div class="tda-gated-box__main"> <h2>Get to the bottom of the story</h2> <p>Understand the Asia-Pacific's biggest issues with a <i class="tda-nowrap">The Diplomat</i> subscription.</p> </div> <div class="tda-gated-box__footer"> <a href="/subscriptions" class="tda-button tda-width--full">Subscribe Now</a> <a href="/subscriptions" class="tda-button tda-button--ghost tda-width--full">View <span class="td-hide--m">Subscription </span>Options</a> <p class="tda-gated-login">Already have an account? <label for="td-account-modal_trigger" class="tda-link tda-nowrap">Log in</label>.</p> </div> </div> </aside> <aside id="tda-gated-counter"></aside> <aside hidden> <div data-type="text/html" id="app_story_content" class="jsonld-markup-paywall-content" style="display: none;"><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">New Zealand’s new free trade agreement (FTA) with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a major win for both sides. Todd McClay, New Zealand’s trade minister, </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand-concludes-high-quality-trade-deal-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc"><span style="font-weight: 400;">announced</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> the long-awaited deal on October 31 with his counterparts in Doha, Qatar. It is a remarkable success that is both years in the making and surprisingly sudden; </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/goff-announces-new-free-trade-agreement-negotiations"><span style="font-weight: 400;">preparatory meetings</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> for the FTA talks began in 2006.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The GCC is made up of six countries that are among the world’s richest: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). For New Zealand, the Gulf states are both highly lucrative markets in themselves, but also an invaluable gateway to the wider Middle East.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Even without an FTA, the bloc is </span><a href="https://statisticsnz.shinyapps.io/trade_dashboard/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">already</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> New Zealand’s seventh-biggest export market, buying NZ$2.6 billion ($1.6 billion) of exports in the year to June. New Zealand’s dairy and meat products are particularly strong sellers in the Gulf, boosted by an appetite for luxury and a quest for food security in desert climates. The Gulf mainly exports oil-based products to New Zealand in exchange, making for a highly complementary partnership.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">While tariffs for selling into the GCC are not high – most goods attract a tariff of just 5 percent – the FTA will carry a cachet worth far more than its face value. The deal with New Zealand is just the third free trade agreement to be agreed by the GCC. And the Gulf’s only two </span><a href="https://www.moec.gov.ae/en/-free-trade-agreements"><span style="font-weight: 400;">existing</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> FTAs – with Singapore and the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA, a grouping of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland – were signed more than 15 years ago.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">New Zealand began its own negotiations with the GCC around the same time as Singapore and EFTA, and initially made rapid progress. After formal negotiations </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand-hosts-first-round-gulf-states-free-trade-talks"><span style="font-weight: 400;">began</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> in 2007, an agreement at the officials’ level was reached just two years later, in October 2009.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The deal was </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/gulf-states-trade-negotiations-open-new-middle-east-markets"><span style="font-weight: 400;">expected</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> to be signed at the ministerial level in the first half of 2010, probably during a planned visit by New Zealand Prime Minister John Key to the Gulf in April of that year. However, Key never made it. After three personnel were </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/pm-saddened-air-force-helicopter-tragedy"><span style="font-weight: 400;">killed</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> in a Royal New Zealand Air Force helicopter crash near Wellington on April 25, Anzac Day, the prime minister cut short his overseas trip to attend the funerals at home.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Key’s absence certainly did not help, but it wasn’t the real reason why the FTA ran aground. Saudi Arabia, the biggest of the Gulf states by both area and population, was never on Key’s draft </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/pm-visits-turkey-gallipoli-anniversary-gulf-states"><span style="font-weight: 400;">itinerary</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. Tim Groser, then the New Zealand trade minister, headed to Riyadh and found himself at the receiving end of understandable Saudi disappointment and frustration over New Zealand’s ongoing moratorium on live sheep exports that had been in place since 2003.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A prominent Saudi businessman, Sheikh Hmood Ali Al Khalaf, felt hard done by after investing heavily in a New Zealand farm that focused on live exports to the Gulf. For years, New Zealand had suggested that live exports could eventually resume, but talks between Wellington and Riyadh had gone nowhere.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">New Zealand’s relations with influential Saudi Arabia hit an all-time low point after the 2010 troubles. But New Zealand’s foreign minister at the time, Murray McCully, was determined to find a way forward that would make the GCC free trade deal possible. Working with officials, he hatched a plan that became known as the Saudi Arabia Food Security Partnership, or more informally, the “Saudi sheep deal.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The idea rested on a simple principle: while New Zealand had banned live sheep exports for slaughter, at the time exports were still permitted for breeding. McCully’s plan was to send live sheep to eastern Saudi Arabia for a breeding program on a model farm that would also showcase the best of New Zealand’s agricultural technology and farming practices.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The New Zealand taxpayer funded the deal to the tune of NZ$11.5 million. But unintended consequences, including the deaths of hundreds of lambs in the Saudi desert, were revealed by New Zealand media in 2015. The Saudi sheep deal caused a political firestorm in New Zealand that dragged on for months. Political pressure from opposition parties even led to an official </span><a href="https://oag.parliament.nz/2016/food-security"><span style="font-weight: 400;">inquiry</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> by the auditor-general, who eventually cleared the foreign minister and others of any wrongdoing in late 2016.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Still, the Saudis appeared greatly impressed by the efforts put in by McCully to improve the relationship – and probably also by the amount of political capital that he was willing to burn on the sheep scheme. Saudi Arabia </span><a href="https://www.spa.gov.sa/w458151"><span style="font-weight: 400;">opened</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> an embassy in Wellington in 2017, reciprocating New Zealand’s own mission in Riyadh, which had opened in 1985. New Zealand’s bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia were firmly on the mend – but the FTA remained tantalizingly out of reach.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This time, relations between the Gulf countries themselves hit the rocks. In 2017, a </span><a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/434112/end-of-feud-between-arab-countries-and-qatar-may-restore-nz-s-hopes-for-trade-deal"><span style="font-weight: 400;">feud</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> that had been slowly brewing since the 2011 Arab Spring culminated in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE suddenly cutting off all trade and diplomatic ties with fellow GCC member Qatar. The extreme boycott – which saw Qatari nationals expelled from the three other Gulf countries overnight – was not lifted until 2021. Intra-Gulf relations have slowly but steadily healed since then, as evidenced by the decision to conclude the NZ-GCC FTA in Qatar.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">After a decade-long hiatus, the formal GCC FTA negotiation process with New Zealand suddenly resumed in March 2022. But even as recently as last year, a free trade agreement with the GCC still seemed like a more long-term goal, judging from the non-committal </span><a href="https://democracyproject.nz/2023/09/06/geoffrey-miller-new-zealand-changes-tack-in-the-gulf/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">signals</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> coming out of Riyadh when New Zealand’s then-Trade Minister Damien O’Connor visited the GCC Secretariat in August 2023.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Meanwhile, with progress on the GCC deal seemingly deadlocked, New Zealand had become more open to other options. In late 2021, the UAE invited New Zealand to negotiate a bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). New Zealand initially demurred, worried that a side-agreement with the UAE would upset the wider GCC and particularly Saudi Arabia.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Still, the </span><a href="https://democracyproject.nz/2024/09/26/geoffrey-miller-new-zealands-trade-deal-with-the-uae-could-unlock-middle-east/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">CEPA</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> was attractive because it would at least deliver FTA-like benefits, as well as expanded cooperation in other areas such as investment, with a powerful GCC member. The UAE remains New Zealand’s biggest export market in the Gulf, although Saudi Arabia is not far behind. After rapidly signing CEPAs with countries ranging from India to Israel, the UAE concluded negotiations on a CEPA with New Zealand in September of this year.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Behind the scenes, Abu Dhabi’s new CEPA strategy clearly became a catalyst for reviving the wider GCC FTA process. The UAE ignited a desire for greater progress among the other five fiercely competitive GCC members. They did not want, and could not afford, to be left behind in the race for new trade deals. New Zealand’s GCC FTA was back on the table. It has now been quickly sewn up. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A vital clue that a deal was in the offing came during September’s announcement of the UAE CEPA in Wellington. In </span><a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/529097/nz-strikes-its-fastest-ever-trade-deal-with-the-united-arab-emirates"><span style="font-weight: 400;">response</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> to media questioning on how the bilateral CEPA would impact the GCC FTA, UAE Trade Minister Dr. Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi said, “We work on both tracks and usually the minute we conclude the bilateral, it speeds up the GCC track. So I’m sure this is going to even move the GCC track much faster.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">And so it has turned out.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ironically, the same intra-Gulf rivalry that had once hindered the completion of the FTA has become a major factor in its success. On the New Zealand end, it also has probably not hurt that a center-right government led by the National Party is back in power – the same party that had invested so much time and energy into the agreement in the mid-2010s. Still, the FTA is a bipartisan achievement: the groundbreaking work in engaging with the Gulf in early 2000s was undertaken by the Labor Party’s long-serving foreign and then trade minister, Phil Goff.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">From the GCC’s perspective, successfully concluding a new deal with a small Western country will help to build confidence and credibility as the bloc looks to sign deals with much bigger fish such as the United Kingdom and the European Union.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">While New Zealand has traditionally focused its interests on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Wellington’s interest in the other Gulf states is growing. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/prime-minister-qatar-visit-new-zealand"><span style="font-weight: 400;">visited</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Wellington on a surprise trip in August, during which the FTA was almost certainly the main topic of discussion. There will no doubt be opportunities to build valuable and much-needed deeper ties with Qatar and the other three GCC members – Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman – in the years to come.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Above all, New Zealand’s free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council has been a lesson in strategic patience. A new chapter is beginning – and exciting opportunities await.</span></p> <p><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">This article was originally published by the </span></i><a href="https://democracyproject.nz/2024/11/01/geoffrey-miller-new-zealands-breakthrough-free-trade-deal-with-the-gulf/"><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Democracy Project</span></i></a><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">, which aims to enhance New Zealand’s democracy and public life by promoting critical thinking, analysis, debate, and engagement in politics and society.</span></i></p> </div> <script type="text/html" id="app_story_placeholder"><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">New Zealand’s new free trade agreement (FTA) with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a major win for both sides. Todd McClay, New Zealand’s trade minister, </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/new-zealand-concludes-high-quality-trade-deal-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc"><span style="font-weight: 400;">announced</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> the long-awaited deal on October 31 with his counterparts in Doha, Qatar. It is a remarkable success that is both years in the making and surprisingly sudden; </span><a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/goff-announces-new-free-trade-agreement-negotiations"><span style="font-weight: 400;">preparatory meetings</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> for the FTA talks began in 2006.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The GCC is made up of six countries that are among the world’s richest: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). For New Zealand, the Gulf states are both highly lucrative markets in themselves, but also an invaluable gateway to the wider Middle East.</span></p>[...]</script> <script type="text/html" id="tda-gated-counter__content"> <div class="tda-gated-box"> <div class="tda-gated-box__ribbon"> You have read <b>{{count}}</b> of your <b>{{max}} free articles</b> this month. </div> <div class="tda-gated-box__main"> <h2>Enjoying this article?</h2> <p> Consider supporting <i class="tda-nowrap">The Diplomat</i>'s independent journalism with a subscription.<br> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/subscriptions" class="tda-link tda-nowrap">Subscribe today</a> to continue having full access to our extensive coverage of the Asia-Pacific.</p> </div> <div class="tda-gated-box__footer"> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/subscriptions" class="tda-button tda-width--full">Subscribe Now</a> <a href="https://thediplomat.com/subscriptions" class="tda-button tda-button--ghost tda-width--full" style="margin-top: 8px">View <span class="td-hide--m">Subscription </span>Options</a> <p class="tda-gated-login">Already have an account? <label for="td-account-modal_trigger" class="tda-link tda-nowrap">Log in</label>.</p> </div> </div> </script> </aside> <footer id="td-story-foot"> <section id="td-story-authors" class="td-box td-authors"><header>Authors</header><div class="td-posts"><div class="td-post"><figure class="td-img td-post__img td-post__img--right td-post__img--circle"><img alt="Geoffrey Miller" title="Geoffrey Miller" sizes="58px" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/sizes/td-list-xs-1/thediplomat_2021-07-29-5.jpg 58w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/sizes/td-list-xs-2/thediplomat_2021-07-29-5.jpg 116w" src="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/sizes/td-list-xs-1/thediplomat_2021-07-29-5.jpg"></figure><h5>Guest Author</h5><h4 style="padding-bottom: 0;">Geoffrey Miller</h4><div style="padding-top: 0;"><p>Geoffrey Miller is an international analyst with the Democracy Project.</p> </div><a class="td-post__more" href="https://thediplomat.com/authors/geoffrey-miller/">View Profile</a></div></div></section><section class="td-box td-tags"><header>Tags</header><ul><li><a href="https://thediplomat.com/category/oceania/"><span>Oceania</span></a></li><li><a href="https://thediplomat.com/topics/economy/"><span>Economy</span></a></li><li><a href="https://thediplomat.com/regions/oceania-region/"><span>Oceania</span></a></li><li><a href="https://thediplomat.com/countries/new-zealand/"><span>New Zealand</span></a></li><li><a href="https://thediplomat.com/tag/new-zealand-economy/"><span>New Zealand economy</span></a></li><li><a href="https://thediplomat.com/tag/new-zealand-trade-policy/"><span>New Zealand trade policy</span></a></li><li><a href="https://thediplomat.com/tag/new-zealand-gcc-fta/"><span>New Zealand-GCC FTA</span></a></li><li><a href="https://thediplomat.com/tag/new-zealand-gulf-relations/"><span>New 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So why have rights activists and the South Korean government been distorting and manipulating evidence to bolster a dubious claim?</div></a><p class="td-br td-br--2"></p><a href="/2024/11/kyrgyzstan-us-relations-10-years-after-the-closure-of-manas-air-base/" class="td-post d-3"><figure class="td-img td-post__img td-post__img--right-s"><img alt="Kyrgyzstan-US Relations: 10 Years After the Closure of Manas Air Base" title="Kyrgyzstan-US Relations: 10 Years After the Closure of Manas Air Base" sizes="(max-width: 319px) 100vw, (max-width: 752px) 138px, 219px" srcset="https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/thumbnail/thediplomat_2024-11-20-115235.jpg 138w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/td-list-s-2/thediplomat_2024-11-20-115235.jpg 276w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/td-list-m-1/thediplomat_2024-11-20-115235.jpg 219w, https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/sizes/td-list-m-2/thediplomat_2024-11-20-115235.jpg 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