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class="label">Pinterest</span> </a> <a href="mailto:?subject=S%26amp%3BP%20500%EC%9D%80%20%27%EC%9D%B8%ED%94%8C%EB%A0%88%EC%9D%B4%EC%85%98%20%EB%B6%90%27%EC%9D%B4%20%EB%8B%A4%EC%8B%9C%20%EB%82%98%ED%83%80%EB%82%A0%20%EC%88%98%20%EC%9E%88%EC%96%B4%20%EB%B6%88%EC%95%88%EC%A0%95%ED%95%9C%202025%EB%85%84%EC%97%90%20%EC%A7%81%EB%A9%B4%3A%20BofA%20%EC%A0%84%EB%9E%B5%EA%B0%80&body=https%3A%2F%2Fkr.benzinga.com%2Fnews%2Fusa%2Feconomy%2Fsp-500%25EC%259D%2580-%25EC%259D%25B8%25ED%2594%258C%25EB%25A0%2588%25EC%259D%25B4%25EC%2585%2598-%25EB%25B6%2590%25EC%259D%25B4-%25EB%258B%25A4%25EC%258B%259C-%25EB%2582%2598%25ED%2583%2580%25EB%2582%25A0-%25EC%2588%2598-%25EC%259E%2588%25EC%2596%25B4-%25EB%25B6%2588%25EC%2595%2588%25EC%25A0%2595%2F" class="cf service s-email" target="_blank" title="Email" rel="nofollow noopener"> <i class="tsi tsi-envelope-o"></i> <span class="label">Email</span> </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="post-content cf entry-content content-spacious"> <p>S&P 500 지수는 역사적인 2년 연속 20% 이상의 상승세를 마무리하고 있다. 이는 지난 150년 동안 단 네 번만 이루어진 일이다. 하지만 <strong>마이클 하트넷</strong>(Michael Hartnett) 뱅크 오브 아메리카(BofA)의 수석 투자 전략가는 이 파티가 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">영원히 계속되지는 않을 수 있다</a>고 경고한다.</p> <p>하트넷의 최신 ‘플로우 쇼(Flow Show)’ 보고서에 따르면, 미국 주식 시장은 2025년에 또 다른 “두 자릿수 변동”을 예고하고 있지만, 투자자들은 인플레이션의 두 번째 물결이 발생할 가능성을 배제해서는 안 된다고 지적했다.</p> <p>뱅크 오브 아메리카의 투자 시계(Investment Clock)는 2024년 “회복기”에서 2025년 “인플레이션 호황기”로 전환되고 있다.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>역사는 반복: 드문 연속 상승</strong></h2> <p><strong>SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust</strong>(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="/quote/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)가 추적하는 S&P 500은 2024년에 25.99% 급등하며 2023년의 24% 랠리를 재현했다.</p> <p>이런 20% 이상의 연속 상승세는 지난 150년 동안 1927-28년, 1935-36년, 1954-55년 그리고 1995-96년 등 네 번만 발생한 일이다.</p> <p>그러나 역사를 보면 그러한 랠리 이후 몇 년 동안 좋건 나쁘건 간에 시장은 종종 급격한 변동을 겪었다.</p> <ul> <li><strong>1927-28년:</strong> 1929년에 -12% 손실, 1930년에 -28% 급락.</li> <li><strong>1935-36년:</strong> 1937년에 -39% 하락.</li> <li><strong>1954-55년:</strong> 1956년에 +3% 상승, 1957년에 -14% 하락.</li> <li><strong>1995-96년:</strong> 1997년에 +31% 상승, 1998년에 +12%로 둔화.</li> </ul> <p>2025년은 이러한 흐름을 따를까? 하트넷은 큰 변동 — 상승 또는 하락 — 이 예상된다고 말한다.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>2025년에 S&P 500이 상승할 수 있는 3가지 이유</strong></h2> <p>하트넷은 2025년에도 강세장이 계속될 수 있는 3가지 주요 요인을 강조다.</p> <ol> <li><strong>“호황” 경제 배경:</strong> 기업들이 잠재적 관세를 대비해 운영을 선행하고 있으며, 이민 통제 강화로 인한 노동 확보가 만연하고, 실업 청구가 급감했다.</li> <li><strong>골디락스 채권 수익률:</strong> 36조 달러의 미국 부채와 7% GDP 적자에도 불구하고, 중앙은행들이 2025년에 금리를 인하할 것으로 예상된다 — 뱅크 오브 아메리카는 124개의 글로벌 금리 인하를 예측하고 있다.</li> <li><strong>정치적 유인:</strong> 트럼프 행정부는 위험 자산인 주식과 암호화폐를 부양해 “동물적 욕구”를 자극하는 데 적극적이어서, 선거년에는 약세장이 발생할 가능성이 낮다.</li> </ol> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>… 그러나 가치평가가 극단적으로 급등</strong></h2> <p>S&P 500의 후행 주가수익비율이 현재 26.5배에 달하면서, 이는 지난 125년 동안 네 번째로 높은 가치 평가로, 1921년 12월, 1999년 6월 및 2021년 6월에 이어서이다.</p> <p>미국 주식 시장은 국제 주식에 비해 75년 만에 최고치를 기록하고 있으며, 단 10개 기업이 시장 가치의 37%를 차지하고 있다.</p> <p>이 집중 현상은 “매그니피센트 세븐” 기술 대기업들이 주도했으며, 이들의 총 시장 가치가 2024년에 4조 달러 급증했다.</p> <p>하지만 하트넷은 인공지능(AI)에서의 미국의 예외성 이야기가 주기적으로 정점을 찍을 수 있다고 지적한다.</p> <p>숫자를 분석하면서, 그는 S&P 500의 세속적 강세장이 2009년 3월 666포인트에서 시작되어 2025년에는 6,666포인트에서 정점에 이를 가능성이 있다고 강조했다.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>… 그리고 인플레이션의 복귀 가능성</strong></h2> <p>뱅크 오브 아메리카의 투자 시계 모델에 따르면 2024년은 금리 인하와 기업 실적 상승에 힘입어 주식 강세인 “회복기”로 표시되었다.</p> <p>하지만 2025년은 금리 상승과 물가 압박이 주된 주제가 되는 “인플레이션 호황기”로 전환될 수 있다.</p> <p>하트넷은 이러한 시나리오에 대한 헤지로 원자재에 대해 긍정적이지만, 신용과 주식은 2025년 초에 정점을 찍을 수 있다고 경고한다.</p> <p><em><strong>지금 읽어보세요:</strong></em></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/economy/2025%EB%85%84-%E7%BE%8E-%EA%B2%BD%EC%A0%9C-%EC%A0%84%EB%A7%9D%EC%9D%80-%EB%B3%B4%ED%86%B5%EB%B3%B4%EB%8B%A4-%ED%9D%90%EB%A6%AC%EB%8B%A4%EA%B3%A0-jp%EB%AA%A8%EA%B1%B4%EC%9D%B4-%EC%98%88%EC%B8%A1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em><strong>2025년 미국 경제 전망은 ‘정상보다 흐림’, JP모건이 말하는 붐과 붕괴 시나리오</strong></em></a></li> </ul> <p><em>사진: Shutterstock</em></p> <p><strong>다른 트레이더들보다 30분 일찍 독점 시장 움직임 뉴스를 받아보세요.</strong><br /> Benzinga Pro의 14일 무료 체험을 통해 독점 뉴스 기사를 이용할 수 있어 수백만 명의 다른 트레이더보다 먼저 실행 가능한 거래 뉴스를 얻을 수 있습니다. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&utm_source=bz-kor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">여기를 클릭</a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.</p> </div> </div> <div class="the-post-tags"><a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/bank-of-america/" rel="tag">Bank of America</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/expert-ideas/" rel="tag">Expert ideas</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/inflation/" rel="tag">Inflation</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/jae-hur/" rel="tag">Jae Hur</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/michael-hartnett/" rel="tag">Michael Hartnett</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/piero-cingari/" rel="tag">Piero Cingari</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/stories-that-matter/" rel="tag">Stories That Matter</a></div> </article> <section class="related-posts"> <div class="block-head block-head-ac block-head-f is-left"> <h4 class="heading">계속 읽기</h4> </div> 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