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Open Questions | Why this China analyst says full decoupling is unlikely, and what’s missed in reform talk | South China Morning Post
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Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, Kroeber worked for 15 years as a financial journalist and economic analyst. He is an adjunct professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, was published in 2020. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.\nYou have suggested that Beijing should roll out economic reforms to achieve sustainable economic growth. What specific reforms? What is your assessment of the sweeping reforms unveiled at the 18th Central Committee’s third plenum in 2013? What should we expect from the coming session?\nUsing the word “reform” to talk about what’s going on in China is not all that helpful. The reason is when people outside China, particularly from the United States or Europe, they specifically mean reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy and increase the role of markets in the private sector. China really is not doing very much of that.\nIn my opinion they should be doing a lot more to reform the financial and fiscal systems and improve market regulation, to enable core dynamism and private-sector activity, and boost productivity across the board.\nBut when the Chinese leadership talks about reform, they mean something different. They believe they are doing a lot of reform in the sense of changing forms of organisation, regulatory systems, and the way that capital flows around the economy with the objective of sustaining economic growth and accelerating the pace of technological change.\nNow, if you go back to the 2013 third plenum document, one major point was that the market would play a decisive role in resource allocation. This implied a mandate for more market reforms.\nThen almost immediately after that, it says the state will continue to have a dominant or leading role in the economy.\nThis reflected the fact that the document was somewhat political, it was trying to placate a wide range of different constituencies within the government – the pro-market people and the pro-state people.\nIt also reflects a pretty fundamental perspective that has been true throughout Chinese economic history of the last 40 or 50 years, that they do see a large role for markets but also a very large role for the state.\nThey are not aiming for an American-style or European-style system. They are aiming for a system which has a lot of market forces in it and a lot of private enterprises, but also has a much larger role for the state in terms of overall direction and coordination.\nThe case for the advocates of a bigger state role grew in 2015, when there was a big stock market crash. There were a lot of capital outflows, and it took them quite a while to stabilise the financial situation of the country.\nThey had to impose a lot of regulations in the stock market. They had to impose capital controls. That whole episode made the senior leadership think, “What can we do if we go too far with this market stuff? It will just become destabilising.”\n\n\nAnd then you look at the internet companies, they got very big, very powerful and arguably not very accountable. So the government decided they weren’t regulating things tightly enough.\nBasically all of the policies of the last five or six years have focused on increasing regulation in the financial sector and the internet sector; and most recently in the property sector. All of these areas were seen as areas of risk that were created by uncontrolled marketisation.\nSo now the view of the government is we have maintained this anti risk policy, but then we also need to promote new sources of growth, particularly since they’ve had this big crackdown on the property sector, which accounts for about one-fourth of the economy.\nYou need another growth engine. The idea of new productive forces is basically to mobilise huge technological investments to drive productivity growth in the future.\nWhat we’re likely to see in the third plenum is a restatement and elaboration of this sort of general industrial policy-led growth model, maybe a little bit more colour on exactly how they expect this to work.\nChina’s trade with the US and the EU have dropped. Is China able to reverse the trend, or is it inevitable that Beijing will have to focus on the developing world?\nYou don’t want to look at China’s share of total global exports. You want to look at their share of manufactured exports. That’s been quite stable at around a little over 20 per cent for the last several years.\nThere does not seem to be any indication that it is significantly shrinking. China is so far doing a pretty good job of retaining its competitiveness and maintaining a fairly stable share of global trade and manufacturing.\nIt is sometimes misleading to look at the headline value of exports. So for example, if you look at the headline numbers, Chinese exports to the United States have taken a big hit.\nIt used to be that China accounted for about 22 per cent of goods imported to the US, and that’s now down to 14 per cent. So you would say China is losing a lot of market share in the United States. The problem with that is, a lot of that reduction in value is not real.\nSo for example, you’re a Chinese maker of solar panels. You can’t send your stuff directly to the United States because of tariffs. You set up a factory in Vietnam and Malaysia and you send it there, the value of that product is still overwhelmingly as a Chinese-made product.\nIf today I’m exporting 100 solar panels from China to the US and then tomorrow I’m exporting zero solar panels from China to the US, but 100 from Vietnam to the US, that would show up as a reduction in China’s export share to the US, but in reality the trade was just diverted through a third country.\nIt’s going to be very difficult to fully decouple the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains\n\nSo Apple has started to move some of its cellphone production out of China. But if you look at those iPhones, where are the components coming from?\nIn many cases, they’re coming from China, and going to India or Vietnam just for the final assembly. Again, the ability of Chinese producers to sell stuff into the American market is much larger than is shown by headline trade data.\nChina will continue – for quite a few years – to have a very robust position in global manufactured trade, including in the developed markets.\nIt’s going to be very difficult to fully decouple the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains.\nIt looks like China is facing challenges in global supply chain realignment. People are saying China’s status in the global supply chain is hard to replace, but what about the prospects over the long run? Who will be the “next China”, India or Vietnam?\nThe short answer is that there is no “next China”. There’s no one else.\nIn China, as they have moved up the value chain and started to be much more successful in machinery, they are still very competitive in these traditional sectors.\nThey are broadly competitive across low-value sectors and high-value sectors. They have such an enormous labour pool and such effective infrastructure that they are able to be competitive across a wide range of goods.\nSupply chains are very sticky. China has a tonne of comparative advantages in terms of size, the productivity of its workforce, the quality of its infrastructure and the industrial ecosystem it has created in many sectors.\nIf you look at the candidates for who could replace China, they all have problems. India has a big workforce. But it is not as well-educated as China.\nFemale labour force participation is very low. That’s a big problem, because if you look at a lot of industrial history in East Asia, the female workforce has been a very important part of building up manufacturing systems. Quality of infrastructure is extremely poor.\nYou look at a country like Vietnam, which in many ways has similar endowments in China in terms of high-quality workforce, and a communist party-led government that is very development-focused. They have a lot of pro-growth policies. But they don’t have the scale.\n\n\n<!--//--><![CDATA[// ><!--\n\n!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--><!]]>\n\nThere are many countries that can replicate some part of the Chinese system, but there’s no one who is even close to being able to do the whole set of things.\nChina has been robustly developing its artificial intelligence (AI). Do you think China will succeed in levelling up its technology and advanced manufacturing?\nThe constraint obviously is the advanced chip controls that have been placed on China by the United States. So for instance, some of the more advanced AI applications require much more high-powered chips.\nThe real question about the pace of Chinese AI development is how quickly China will be able to come up with adequate substitutes for the high-powered AI chips that they can no longer source from the United States. Most people think that’s going to be a period of several years, at least, for them to be able to fully replicate those capabilities they’re now being deprived of.\nOn one hand, China is facing an ageing population. On the other hand, China is putting resources into robotics and automation. Do you think robots will replace manual labour one day? To what extent can it replace the human labour force?\nThis is a good moment to talk about the Chinese government’s overarching policy framework, which they call “new productive forces”. It’s now been incorporated in a lot of the top-level economic planning, documents and policies.\nIt’s a new formulation of a comprehensive, technologically driven development strategy which Xi Jinping has been pushing forward for a decade. And part of what they’re talking about is figuring out ways to use industrial automation, whether it’s robots, AI, or some other kind of technology to improve the productivity of existing manufacturing.\nPart of that also is replacing factory floor labour, because of the demographic changes. It’s very clear that policymakers in China understand there’s a problem here that they need to deal with.\nWhat will China do to maintain its status in the supply chain? Is China still investible over the long run?\nFundamentally, the Chinese leadership has been very clear that maintaining a large industrial economy is the goal. They don’t accept the idea that China should just become a pure services and consumer-driven economy.\nThe basic thing that they are doing is making sure all kinds of sectors stay in China. They have a lot of tools to work with – creating favourable financing conditions for industrial companies, incentive programmes for technological development, and continued investments in infrastructure.\nChina is still a non-optional market … It’s still a big source of incremental growth\n\nThis is not necessarily good for financial investors who are just looking at corporate profits of domestic companies in highly competitive sectors. But for corporate investors who invest in physical production or services in China, it’s a very different story.\nChina is still a non-optional market for many international companies. It is very large. It’s still a big source of incremental growth. If you look at this whole debate about electric vehicles (EVs), the companies that are most opposed to putting tariffs on Chinese EV imports are the German carmakers.\nThese are the guys who are going to be most affected by cheap Chinese EVs. Why aren’t they in favour of tariffs? They want to maintain their market access in China. And they’re afraid that if these tariffs get approved, then the retaliation will be government policies that restrict their ability to operate within China.\nWe’ve seen heightened geopolitical tensions, ideological confrontation and tightened scrutiny over national security in recent years. Will this affect Chinese companies going overseas?\nClearly it’s very difficult for Chinese companies to invest in the United States. There is some evidence now that it’s difficult for Chinese companies to invest in Europe as well. But there are large swathes of the world where Chinese investment is very strong.\nThe whole of Southeast Asia, Latin America, increasingly the Middle East. There will be political barriers to Chinese investment in some places, but there will be plenty of opportunities for Chinese companies to invest elsewhere.\nIt’s important to remember that there’s been very little Chinese private sector investment in the rest of the world relative to the size of China’s economy. China is in the very early stages of its companies going out and figuring out how to operate in other environments.\nQuestions are still being asked over whether China can achieve its 5 per cent growth target this year, despite Beijing’s repeated pledges to do so. Why the expectation gap?\nWhat President Xi Jinping really wants is for China to become more technologically advanced. So the purpose of economic policy is to promote the creation of a technologically advanced economy.\nThe growth objective has been downgraded quite substantially from the past. If China grows by only 3 to 4 per cent on average for the next decade but continues to advance technologically at a rapid pace, that will be fine.\nOutside China, there’s a very strong tendency for people to go to extreme views. You say either China is going to take over the world tomorrow or is unsustainable and will all collapse. Both those views have been proven wrong.\nChina has done very well. It hasn’t taken over the world. And it still has a lot of problems and contradictions. There have been many predictions of collapse or crisis that have just not panned out over the years.\n\n\nIf you look at financial fragility, China has a lot of debt. There are a lot of problems in the financial sector, but it also has a national savings rate of over 40 per cent of GDP.\nThe amount of money that exists in the system to fund the financial sector is very large, and capital controls prevent that money from flowing out to the rest of the world.\nChina now is sometimes compared to Japan in the 1990s, but the basic problem is that China is a very different economy than Japan in 1990. In Japan, there was essentially a single national balance sheet – the financial system and the real economy were tied together.\nSo if you’re a bank and you own shares in Mitsubishi, then you care a lot about what Mitsubishi’s stock price is. Similarly, Mitsubishi cares a lot about what the bank’s stock price is. If all of the stock prices go down at once, both the financial sector and the real sector will be in trouble.\nThe other issue was that there was a lot of lending on land. Land prices, property prices were way more extravagant in Japan in 1990 than they have been recently in China. And as those asset prices fell, the combined balance sheet of “Japan, Inc.” took a huge hit.\nChina does not permit these kinds of cross-shareholdings between banks and companies. So when you look for heavily indebted entities, you can find many. But you can also find plenty of companies, particularly in the industrial sector, that are not particularly leveraged and are unaffected by debt problems that exist elsewhere in the economy.\nYou have a fragmented balance sheet, and you have asset prices that did not get as crazy as they did in Japan.\nThere is going to be a problem with the property sector for the rest of this decade. That’s going to be a big drag. Prices still have to fall quite a bit.\nThat’s going to be a big problem for a lot of the smaller banks in the Chinese system. It’s going to be a problem for local governments that rely on land sales for revenue.\nBut because it is fragmented, there are many other parts of the economy, in the industrial sector and services, that can keep growing relatively well.\nWe used to think of China as an economy that grew by 10 per cent a year, and then 7 per cent a year until recently. Now maybe it’s around 5 per cent. Those are real growth rates. But the really important thing is the slowdown in nominal growth, which has been much greater. If you look at nominal growth in the first decade of the 2000s, it was almost 20 per cent a year.\nToday, nominal growth is only about 4 per cent, less than the real growth rate, which is another way of saying that there’s a lot of deflationary pressure in the economy. Looking ahead over the next several years, China might be growing at 3 or 4 per cent in both real and nominal terms.\nChina can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary\n\nThe big difference is not about an economy that’s growing in real terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 5 per cent. It’s that the economy is growing in nominal terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 8 to 10 per cent.\nThe reduction in nominal growth is what matters for corporate profits.\nSo that’s where I would have a little bit of a problem with the Chinese way of framing – “Everything’s fine, we’re still going to grow by 5 per cent” – they’re growing at 5 per cent real, but there’s 1 per cent deflation.\nDeflation is not a pleasant thing. It creates a lot of problems. China can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary.\nSuspicions exist over China’s official data. Some point out the figures are sometimes inconsistent and overstated. What is your assessment of the issue?\nWe use the official data a lot because there isn’t that much else out there. So in some sectors – property or automobiles – you have some private sector data sources that are very useful. But for the most part, you have to rely on official data.\nIf you look at the quality of data in China and then look at the quality of data in India, on average the quality of the Indian data is a bit worse. No one talks about this. The reason is because India is a democratic open system and China is not.\nWhen people say we can’t trust the statistics, they’re not actually making a careful judgment about statistical quality. They are making a judgment about the nature of the political system. And what they’re saying is we don’t trust statements made by the government of China because it’s not democratic.\nIf the data makes sense over time and triangulates with other data, then it’s probably fine. If it doesn’t make sense, then you start to question it.\nFrankly, this is what analysts have to do with any data set, whether it’s China, India, the United States or the European Union. You never take the data at face value. You always ask yourself, “Does this data make sense compared to other things?” If it does, we’ll move on.\nIf it doesn’t, we need to investigate further. The reality is that we’re able to do a pretty good job of describing what’s going on in China by using the official data.\nAnd there’s some things where we just have to acknowledge the data is really bad and we can’t use it, so that limits our ability to make observations on certain topics.\n\n\n<!--//--><![CDATA[// ><!--\n\n!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--><!]]>\n\nWhat you have to do is do the hard work of looking at the data carefully, seeing what makes sense, using the stuff that has proved over time to be consistent and usable and throwing out the stuff that has proved consistently not usable. We do this every day in our work on the Chinese economy.\nThe final point here is if they were simply making up the numbers, telling false stories about the economy, eventually reality is going to catch up.\nGenerally speaking, the complaints that you hear about data quality are: I don’t really want to do the work of understanding what’s really going on here. I’m just going to reject the data and make up some story based on some cherry-picked evidence.\nI just don’t find that to be analytically very satisfactory, particularly in light of the fact that China has a very long track record of successful growth and is dealing with a wide range of problems.\nThere are tons and tons of data problems. Some of them are the result of political interference, that is without doubt. And the job of analysts is just to work through that and try to determine the noise.\nThe Pacific Ocean seems to create an information gap as well as one of physical distance. Some are reluctant to come to China and are losing confidence in the Chinese market, despite Beijing’s pledges to open further. Why does it seem the world’s two largest economies are losing touch with each other?\nFor essentially three years, China was locked away from the rest of the world. And they’ve been very slow to resume contact. There was a lot of damage done by the three years of Covid isolation. It exacerbated the mistrust between the United States and China.\nThe Chinese government for the last few years has been very clear that they want to tighten up security across a wide spectrum of things. They’ve been very systematic at increasing security controls of various kinds.\nThis means a crackdown on various kinds of information-gathering activities. And now the Chinese government wants to regulate them much more tightly.\nThe problem on the Chinese side is that security forces have been given very wide latitude to go after problems. They are not held accountable for the collateral damage in investor confidence.\nChina’s efforts to reassure people have not been very convincing, because if you look at the way the law and the way the regulations are written, there are severe penalties for various offences that are not clearly specified.\nSo people want to know what to do to comply. How can they be 100 per cent sure they can comply?\n\n\n\n\nA lot of it has to do with the greater security focus within China, which is reflective of an environment where many countries are doing the same thing.\nYou could see a similar thing in the United States, where there’s a lot more emphasis on security support. But the concern of foreign companies is that the Chinese system by its nature is less transparent and less predictable.\nWill hawkish voices in the US become stronger by using overcapacity to attack China? Is the American government politicising overcapacity?\nI have problems with the term “overcapacity”, because I don’t really know what it means. And it doesn’t really have a precise meaning. This is a somewhat politicised discussion.\nThese countries want to maintain a certain production structure. They want to have their own carmakers.\nAs a responsible economy, China should be working on both the supply and the demand side. You can’t just have a supply policy and no demand policy.\nThe Chinese argument is: “We have a very successful manufacturing economy. Why aren’t you happy that we’re making all of this stuff that’s cheaper?”\nSo now people can buy electric cars for US$10,000 or US$15,000 instead of a conventional vehicle at US$25,000 or US$30,000. This is a benefit for consumers.\nOn the Western side, they have this overcapacity thing, which is really a meaningless term. And they’re unwilling to acknowledge the fact that China does have a very effective competitive manufacturing system.\nIf you have unbalanced policies where you are massively increasing supply – so you have the ability to sell goods in other people’s markets – but you are doing very little to increase demand, you’re not making it easier for other people to sell in your market.\nPeople look at that and say that’s not fair. You want more access to our market and you’re not reciprocating by creating a vibrant domestic market.\nBoth sides need to rethink what’s the best way to come to an accommodation, because the risk that we have right now is that these tensions are growing so large that it is going to create a lot more friction in the global trading system.\nThere is a problem in this ‘high fence, small yard’ thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger\n\nYou can have a lot more protectionism, more tariffs, more controls on trade and investment. And if that happens, then everyone becomes poorer.\nDo you think the “high fence, small yard” strategy of the Biden administration will kill China’s technological development?\nNo. China has a very dynamic industrial ecosystem. There’s a lot of really competitive companies. It has a whole range of infrastructure to support it. The government is committed to funding basic research.\nI don’t think this will derail China’s technological development. There is a problem in this “high fence, small yard” thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger.\nAs successive [US] administrations come in, what they’re probably going to do is impose more controls on the definition. And at the end of the day, I don’t think that’s going to throw China off-course, but it is a constant strain on the relationship.\nSo the China-US relationship will become more adversarial.\nIs the US facing a dilemma of inflation, especially if Trump gets re-elected?\nIf Trump gets elected – certainly the policies that have been put out by Trump’s people would be highly inflationary. So all these tariffs, not just on imports from China, but on imports from everywhere in the world.\nTighter control on immigration would reduce labour supply, which will push up wages. Everything they say they will do would contribute to inflation.\nWill they actually do all those things? Trump is very good at reading the mood of the room. At some instinctive level, he might recognise that the inflationary policies he pursued between 2016 and 2020 are much less appropriate in today’s environment.\n\n\nNow, the US economy is clearly inflationary. And if you throw in more inflationary policies, you could have a big problem. Trump might be a sufficiently smart politician to recognise that’s dangerous.\nOn the broader China question, it’s very uncertain. If Trump is elected, there’s no question that the security side – the defence department, state department – will become more hawkish than under Biden, and will be inclined to be antagonistic towards China.\nThe final thing is that – if you look at the original Trump presidency, he had some very hawkish people on China. But at the treasury department, in particular, he had people who were trying to be very nuanced and have a constructive relationship with China.\nSo it’s quite possible that we’ll have a similar dynamic in the second Trump term. There are different people in different parts of the administration that have different views.\n","articleSection":"China Economy","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Kandy Wong","sameAs":"https://www.scmp.com/author/kandy-wong"},"dateCreated":"2024-07-11T16:59:20+08:00","dateModified":"2024-07-12T13:46:13+08:00","datePublished":"2024-07-12T06:00:18+08:00","description":" ","genre":"Economy","hasPart":{"@type":"WebPageElement","cssSelector":".piano-metering__paywall-container","isAccessibleForFree":"False"},"headline":"Open Questions | Why this China analyst says full decoupling is unlikely, and what’s missed in reform talk","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","height":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","value":1841},"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/07/12/4bf0b195-c470-48c6-a897-cf9538a7d09b_8073707a.jpg","width":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","value":2756}},"inLanguage":"en-GB","isAccessibleForFree":"False","locationCreated":{"@type":"Place","name":"Hong Kong"},"mainEntityOfPage":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3270078/why-china-analyst-thinks-full-decoupling-unlikely-and-what-gets-missed-talk-reforms","publisher":{"@type":"NewsMediaOrganization","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","height":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","value":512},"url":"https://assets-v2.i-scmp.com/production/icons/scmp-icon-512x512.png","width":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","value":512}},"name":"South China Morning Post"},"publishingPrinciples":"https://www.scmp.com/policies-and-standards"}</script><article class="article-list css-cru7id e1d6iglh0" data-qa="ArticlePage-Article"><div data-qa="ArticleList-Item" class="css-1t2rj2z e1kvrr5t0"><div data-qa="Component-ArticleRenderContainer" class="css-1pyy6bv er6t7fe38"><div class="css-tfsthe ea45u6l30" data-qa="GenericArticle-GenericArticleContainer"><div class="ea45u6l5 css-jyecem e15slk7y0" data-qa="ArticleHeaderAdSlot-CSSTransition"><div data-qa="ArticleHeaderAdSlot-Placeholder" class="css-1j52pf 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data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor">Kandy Wong</a></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PublishDateTime" class="css-mbzp8v ea45u6l14"><div class=" er6t7fe27 css-1qbx4v2 efakuk42" data-qa="Article20Date-Container"><time dateTime="2024-07-11T22:00:18.000Z" data-qa="Article20Date-PublishedDate" class="css-0 efakuk41">Published: <!-- -->6:00am, 12 Jul 2024</time><time dateTime="2024-07-12T05:46:13.000Z" data-qa="Article20Date-UpdatedDate" class="css-m6ip7c efakuk40">Updated: <!-- -->1:46pm, 12 Jul 2024</time></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Correction" class="css-1ou8zht ea45u6l11"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Content" class="css-1u2o0u6 ea45u6l10"><section class="er6t7fe37 css-19sk4h4 e1pqt1t0" data-qa="ContentBody-ContentBodyContainer"><div class="js-reading-0-percent-completion-tracker css-19icq8a ekyy9du0" data-qa="useTrackViewedPercentageRender-trackViewedPercentageRenders-TrackPercentageBlock"></div><div datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1xdhyk6 ec74h0k0"><em data-qa="ContentSchemaRender-defaultRenderMapFunctions-Component-0" class="css-1mniedq ex3nmsa15">Arthur Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research firm. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, Kroeber worked for 15 years as a financial journalist and economic analyst. He is an adjunct professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, was published in 2020.</em> <em data-qa="ContentSchemaRender-defaultRenderMapFunctions-Component-2" class="css-1mniedq ex3nmsa15">For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click</em> <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/series/3256715/open-questions?campaign=Open_Questions&module=series_LHS_header&pgtype=article?module=inline&pgtype=article?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00"><em data-qa="ContentSchemaRender-defaultRenderMapFunctions-Component-0" class="css-1mniedq ex3nmsa15">here</em></span></a><em data-qa="ContentSchemaRender-defaultRenderMapFunctions-Component-5" class="css-1mniedq ex3nmsa15">.</em></div><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-y2bwcc e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1"><strong data-qa="ContentSchemaRender-defaultRenderMapFunctions-Component-0" class="css-1mniedq ex3nmsa16">You have suggested that Beijing should roll out economic reforms to achieve sustainable economic growth. What specific reforms? What is your assessment of the sweeping reforms unveiled at the 18th Central Committee’s third plenum in 2013? What should we expect from the coming session?</strong></p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">Using the word “reform” to talk about what’s going on in China is not all that helpful. The reason is when people outside China, particularly from the United States or Europe, they specifically mean reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy and increase the role of markets in the private sector. China really is not doing very much of that.</p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">In my opinion they should be doing a lot more to reform the financial and fiscal systems and improve market regulation, to enable core dynamism and private-sector activity, and boost productivity across the board.</p><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">But when the Chinese leadership talks about reform, they mean something different. They believe they are doing a lot of reform in the sense of changing forms of organisation, regulatory systems, and the way that capital flows around the economy with the objective of sustaining economic growth and accelerating the pace of technological change.</p><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-gy323d e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><div datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1xdhyk6 ec74h0k0">Now, if you go back to the 2013 third plenum document, one major point was that the market would <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1354411/chinas-leadership-approves-key-reform-package-close-third-plenum?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">play a decisive role</span></a> in resource allocation. This implied a mandate for more market reforms.</div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">Then almost immediately after that, it says the state will continue to have a dominant or leading role in the economy.</p></section></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PaywallContainer" class="css-1kfpym9 ea45u6l1"><div class="er6t7fe22 piano-metering__paywall-container css-1e938sv e1x97qwg1" data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-Container"><div data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-LoadingContainer" class="css-hu4lls e1x97qwg2"><div class="css-1px2vm1 e1hb2u5e0" data-qa="Loading-CenteredContainer"><img aria-label="loading" data-qa="BaseImage-handleRenderImage-StyledImage" loading="eager" src="https://assets-v2.i-scmp.com/production/_next/static/media/wheel-on-gray.af4a55f9.gif" class="css-o105sx e445x7d0"/></div></div><div class="article-view__piano-metering css-16o2qwc e1x97qwg0" data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-Wrapper"></div></div></div><div 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...inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle\n ...carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesCarouselContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ... on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT\n}\n\nfragment articleShareWidgetArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSponsorContent on Article {\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n description {\n json\n }\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...headerContentBookmarkArticle\n ...headerContentCommentTrigger\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersUseSharingUrl\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle\n ...hooksContentInterestArticle\n ...hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle\n ...hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle\n ...onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n types\n image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {\n style(filter: {style: \"300x300\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorBioAuthor on Author {\n bio\n}\n\nfragment authorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...styleAuthorCardAuthor\n ...defaultAuthorCardAuthor\n ...plusAuthorCardAuthor\n}\n\nfragment authorNameAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n name\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment authorNamesArticle on Article {\n authorLocations\n authors {\n entityId\n location\n ...authorNameAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorRoleAuthor on Author {\n role {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorSocialLinksAuthor on Author {\n socialLinks {\n class\n title\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment beforeYouGoActionWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle on Article {\n entityId\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleSeriesCarouselContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentActionBarContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n createdDate\n updatedDate\n publishedDate\n ...articleCommentArticle\n ... on Article {\n hasVideoContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentBodyContent_3o8td4 on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_4isNar on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n landscape250x99: style(filter: {style: \"landscape_250_99\"}) {\n url\n }\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_4isNar\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ...contentUpdatedDateContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3wWJWe on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentPublishedDateContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n ...videoDurationOverlayVideo\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksSeriesArticleSectionTagArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ...atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4\n ...atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {\n entityId\n publishedDate\n headline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n copyrighted\n entityUuid\n socialHeadline\n sponsor\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle on Article {\n entityId\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationsSection on Section {\n ...notificationSection\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment imageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent\n}\n\nfragment infographicArticleArticle on Article {\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...landingBannerInfographicArticle\n}\n\nfragment inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment issuesNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n }\n ...issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment itemLiveArticleContentArticle on Article {\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment landingBannerInfographicArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n headline\n topics {\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n title\n url\n }\n coverHero: image(filter: {type: HERO}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment liveArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n entityUuid\n flag\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n ...contentLiveArticleArticle\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...newsletterWidgetLiveArticleArticle\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n}\n\nfragment liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF on Query {\n article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n liveArticle(filter: {entityUuid: $entityUuid}) {\n customTimezone\n liveContents {\n entityId\n publishedDate\n title\n body {\n text\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment magazinesStyleArticleMoreOnThisContentItemContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...entityLink\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S\n}\n\nfragment morningStudioArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...headerMorningStudioArticle\n}\n\nfragment morningStudioArticleFooterContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityUuid\n topics {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment newsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n ...contentNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...headerNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment newsletterWidgetLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment notificationSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...photoGalleryDialogContent\n}\n\nfragment pianoIntegrationArticle on Article {\n __typename\n contentLock\n createdDate\n entityId\n entityUuid\n headline\n publishedDate\n sponsor\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n 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...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...headerContentBookmarkArticle\n ...headerContentCommentTrigger\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersUseSharingUrl\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle\n ...hooksContentInterestArticle\n ...hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle\n ...hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle\n ...onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n types\n image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {\n style(filter: {style: \"300x300\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorBioAuthor on Author {\n bio\n}\n\nfragment authorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...styleAuthorCardAuthor\n ...defaultAuthorCardAuthor\n ...plusAuthorCardAuthor\n}\n\nfragment authorNameAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n name\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment authorNamesArticle on Article {\n authorLocations\n authors {\n entityId\n location\n ...authorNameAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorRoleAuthor on Author {\n role {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorSocialLinksAuthor on Author {\n socialLinks {\n class\n title\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment beforeYouGoActionWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle on Article {\n entityId\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleSeriesCarouselContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentActionBarContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n createdDate\n updatedDate\n publishedDate\n ...articleCommentArticle\n ... on Article {\n hasVideoContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentBodyContent_3o8td4 on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_4isNar on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n landscape250x99: style(filter: {style: \"landscape_250_99\"}) {\n url\n }\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_4isNar\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ...contentUpdatedDateContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3wWJWe on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentPublishedDateContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n ...videoDurationOverlayVideo\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksSeriesArticleSectionTagArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ...atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4\n ...atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {\n entityId\n publishedDate\n headline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n copyrighted\n entityUuid\n socialHeadline\n sponsor\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle on Article {\n entityId\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationsSection on Section {\n ...notificationSection\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment imageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent\n}\n\nfragment infographicArticleArticle on Article {\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...landingBannerInfographicArticle\n}\n\nfragment inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment issuesNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n }\n ...issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment itemLiveArticleContentArticle on Article {\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment landingBannerInfographicArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n headline\n topics {\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n title\n url\n }\n coverHero: image(filter: {type: HERO}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment liveArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n entityUuid\n flag\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n ...contentLiveArticleArticle\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...newsletterWidgetLiveArticleArticle\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n}\n\nfragment liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF on Query {\n article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n liveArticle(filter: {entityUuid: $entityUuid}) {\n customTimezone\n liveContents {\n entityId\n publishedDate\n title\n body {\n text\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment magazinesStyleArticleMoreOnThisContentItemContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...entityLink\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S\n}\n\nfragment morningStudioArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...headerMorningStudioArticle\n}\n\nfragment morningStudioArticleFooterContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityUuid\n topics {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment newsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n ...contentNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...headerNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment newsletterWidgetLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment notificationSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...photoGalleryDialogContent\n}\n\nfragment pianoIntegrationArticle on Article {\n __typename\n contentLock\n createdDate\n entityId\n entityUuid\n headline\n publishedDate\n sponsor\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n ...helpersIsArchiveWallArticle\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...useShareContentUnlockedArticle\n}\n\nfragment plusArticleAuthorBlockArticle on Article {\n ...articleDateContent\n ...authorNamesArticle\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment plusArticleTitleArticle on Article {\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...articleTitleArticle\n ...plusArticleTypeTitleContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment plusArticleTypeTitleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment plusAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n areaOfExpertise\n}\n\nfragment plusColumnsArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articleTitleArticle\n ...blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment plusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n ...blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent\n ...factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent\n ...plusArticleTitleArticle\n}\n\nfragment popupArticle20ShareMenuContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment postMagazineArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...genericArticleContent\n}\n\nfragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment seriesArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...seriesPrimaryContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...seriesBannerContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment seriesBannerContent 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She focuses on China's trade relationships with the United States, the European Union and Australia, as well as the Belt \u0026 Road Initiative and currency issues. She graduated from New York University with a master's degree in journalism in 2013. An award-winning journalist, she has worked in Hong Kong, China and New York for the Hong Kong Economic Journal and the Financial Times, E\u0026E News, Forbes, The Economist Intelligence Unit, Nikkei Asia and Coconuts Media. \r\n","socialLinks":[{"class":"twitter","title":"","url":"https://twitter.com/KandyWong_SCMP"},{"class":"email","title":"","url":"mailto:kandy.wong@scmp.com"}],"role":{"text":"Correspondent, Political Economy\n"},"areaOfExpertise":["China economy, markets coverage, Hong Kong politics"]}],"headline":"Why this China analyst says full decoupling is unlikely, and what’s missed in reform talk","socialHeadline":"Arthur Kroeber: why China decoupling is unlikely, and talk of reform 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of Gavekal Dragonomics says efforts to dislodge China from global supply chains are unlikely to succeed and discussions of ‘reform’ from outside the country often miss vital context.\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Founder of Gavekal Dragonomics says efforts to dislodge China from global supply chains are unlikely to succeed and discussions of ‘reform’ from outside the country often miss vital context."}]}]},"subHeadline":{"text":"Arthur Kroeber, founder of Gavekal Dragonomics, says China’s role in supply chains is unlikely to change and discussion of reform from abroad is often incomplete\n","json":[{"type":"ul","children":[{"type":"li","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Arthur Kroeber, founder of Gavekal Dragonomics, says China’s role in supply chains is unlikely to change and discussion of reform from abroad is often incomplete"}]},{"type":"text","data":"\n"}]}]},"body":{"text":"Arthur Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research firm. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, Kroeber worked for 15 years as a financial journalist and economic analyst. He is an adjunct professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, was published in 2020. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.\nYou have suggested that Beijing should roll out economic reforms to achieve sustainable economic growth. What specific reforms? What is your assessment of the sweeping reforms unveiled at the 18th Central Committee’s third plenum in 2013? What should we expect from the coming session?\nUsing the word “reform” to talk about what’s going on in China is not all that helpful. The reason is when people outside China, particularly from the United States or Europe, they specifically mean reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy and increase the role of markets in the private sector. China really is not doing very much of that.\nIn my opinion they should be doing a lot more to reform the financial and fiscal systems and improve market regulation, to enable core dynamism and private-sector activity, and boost productivity across the board.\nBut when the Chinese leadership talks about reform, they mean something different. They believe they are doing a lot of reform in the sense of changing forms of organisation, regulatory systems, and the way that capital flows around the economy with the objective of sustaining economic growth and accelerating the pace of technological change.\nNow, if you go back to the 2013 third plenum document, one major point was that the market would play a decisive role in resource allocation. This implied a mandate for more market reforms.\nThen almost immediately after that, it says the state will continue to have a dominant or leading role in the economy.\nThis reflected the fact that the document was somewhat political, it was trying to placate a wide range of different constituencies within the government – the pro-market people and the pro-state people.\nIt also reflects a pretty fundamental perspective that has been true throughout Chinese economic history of the last 40 or 50 years, that they do see a large role for markets but also a very large role for the state.\nThey are not aiming for an American-style or European-style system. They are aiming for a system which has a lot of market forces in it and a lot of private enterprises, but also has a much larger role for the state in terms of overall direction and coordination.\nThe case for the advocates of a bigger state role grew in 2015, when there was a big stock market crash. There were a lot of capital outflows, and it took them quite a while to stabilise the financial situation of the country.\nThey had to impose a lot of regulations in the stock market. They had to impose capital controls. That whole episode made the senior leadership think, “What can we do if we go too far with this market stuff? It will just become destabilising.”\n\n\nAnd then you look at the internet companies, they got very big, very powerful and arguably not very accountable. So the government decided they weren’t regulating things tightly enough.\nBasically all of the policies of the last five or six years have focused on increasing regulation in the financial sector and the internet sector; and most recently in the property sector. All of these areas were seen as areas of risk that were created by uncontrolled marketisation.\nSo now the view of the government is we have maintained this anti risk policy, but then we also need to promote new sources of growth, particularly since they’ve had this big crackdown on the property sector, which accounts for about one-fourth of the economy.\nYou need another growth engine. The idea of new productive forces is basically to mobilise huge technological investments to drive productivity growth in the future.\nWhat we’re likely to see in the third plenum is a restatement and elaboration of this sort of general industrial policy-led growth model, maybe a little bit more colour on exactly how they expect this to work.\nChina’s trade with the US and the EU have dropped. Is China able to reverse the trend, or is it inevitable that Beijing will have to focus on the developing world?\nYou don’t want to look at China’s share of total global exports. You want to look at their share of manufactured exports. That’s been quite stable at around a little over 20 per cent for the last several years.\nThere does not seem to be any indication that it is significantly shrinking. China is so far doing a pretty good job of retaining its competitiveness and maintaining a fairly stable share of global trade and manufacturing.\nIt is sometimes misleading to look at the headline value of exports. So for example, if you look at the headline numbers, Chinese exports to the United States have taken a big hit.\nIt used to be that China accounted for about 22 per cent of goods imported to the US, and that’s now down to 14 per cent. So you would say China is losing a lot of market share in the United States. The problem with that is, a lot of that reduction in value is not real.\nSo for example, you’re a Chinese maker of solar panels. You can’t send your stuff directly to the United States because of tariffs. You set up a factory in Vietnam and Malaysia and you send it there, the value of that product is still overwhelmingly as a Chinese-made product.\nIf today I’m exporting 100 solar panels from China to the US and then tomorrow I’m exporting zero solar panels from China to the US, but 100 from Vietnam to the US, that would show up as a reduction in China’s export share to the US, but in reality the trade was just diverted through a third country.\nIt’s going to be very difficult to fully decouple the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains\n\nSo Apple has started to move some of its cellphone production out of China. But if you look at those iPhones, where are the components coming from?\nIn many cases, they’re coming from China, and going to India or Vietnam just for the final assembly. Again, the ability of Chinese producers to sell stuff into the American market is much larger than is shown by headline trade data.\nChina will continue – for quite a few years – to have a very robust position in global manufactured trade, including in the developed markets.\nIt’s going to be very difficult to fully decouple the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains.\nIt looks like China is facing challenges in global supply chain realignment. People are saying China’s status in the global supply chain is hard to replace, but what about the prospects over the long run? Who will be the “next China”, India or Vietnam?\nThe short answer is that there is no “next China”. There’s no one else.\nIn China, as they have moved up the value chain and started to be much more successful in machinery, they are still very competitive in these traditional sectors.\nThey are broadly competitive across low-value sectors and high-value sectors. They have such an enormous labour pool and such effective infrastructure that they are able to be competitive across a wide range of goods.\nSupply chains are very sticky. China has a tonne of comparative advantages in terms of size, the productivity of its workforce, the quality of its infrastructure and the industrial ecosystem it has created in many sectors.\nIf you look at the candidates for who could replace China, they all have problems. India has a big workforce. But it is not as well-educated as China.\nFemale labour force participation is very low. That’s a big problem, because if you look at a lot of industrial history in East Asia, the female workforce has been a very important part of building up manufacturing systems. Quality of infrastructure is extremely poor.\nYou look at a country like Vietnam, which in many ways has similar endowments in China in terms of high-quality workforce, and a communist party-led government that is very development-focused. They have a lot of pro-growth policies. But they don’t have the scale.\n\n\n\u003c!--//--\u003e\u003c![CDATA[// \u003e\u003c!--\n\n!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--\u003e\u003c!]]\u003e\n\nThere are many countries that can replicate some part of the Chinese system, but there’s no one who is even close to being able to do the whole set of things.\nChina has been robustly developing its artificial intelligence (AI). Do you think China will succeed in levelling up its technology and advanced manufacturing?\nThe constraint obviously is the advanced chip controls that have been placed on China by the United States. So for instance, some of the more advanced AI applications require much more high-powered chips.\nThe real question about the pace of Chinese AI development is how quickly China will be able to come up with adequate substitutes for the high-powered AI chips that they can no longer source from the United States. Most people think that’s going to be a period of several years, at least, for them to be able to fully replicate those capabilities they’re now being deprived of.\nOn one hand, China is facing an ageing population. On the other hand, China is putting resources into robotics and automation. Do you think robots will replace manual labour one day? To what extent can it replace the human labour force?\nThis is a good moment to talk about the Chinese government’s overarching policy framework, which they call “new productive forces”. It’s now been incorporated in a lot of the top-level economic planning, documents and policies.\nIt’s a new formulation of a comprehensive, technologically driven development strategy which Xi Jinping has been pushing forward for a decade. And part of what they’re talking about is figuring out ways to use industrial automation, whether it’s robots, AI, or some other kind of technology to improve the productivity of existing manufacturing.\nPart of that also is replacing factory floor labour, because of the demographic changes. It’s very clear that policymakers in China understand there’s a problem here that they need to deal with.\nWhat will China do to maintain its status in the supply chain? Is China still investible over the long run?\nFundamentally, the Chinese leadership has been very clear that maintaining a large industrial economy is the goal. They don’t accept the idea that China should just become a pure services and consumer-driven economy.\nThe basic thing that they are doing is making sure all kinds of sectors stay in China. They have a lot of tools to work with – creating favourable financing conditions for industrial companies, incentive programmes for technological development, and continued investments in infrastructure.\nChina is still a non-optional market … It’s still a big source of incremental growth\n\nThis is not necessarily good for financial investors who are just looking at corporate profits of domestic companies in highly competitive sectors. But for corporate investors who invest in physical production or services in China, it’s a very different story.\nChina is still a non-optional market for many international companies. It is very large. It’s still a big source of incremental growth. If you look at this whole debate about electric vehicles (EVs), the companies that are most opposed to putting tariffs on Chinese EV imports are the German carmakers.\nThese are the guys who are going to be most affected by cheap Chinese EVs. Why aren’t they in favour of tariffs? They want to maintain their market access in China. And they’re afraid that if these tariffs get approved, then the retaliation will be government policies that restrict their ability to operate within China.\nWe’ve seen heightened geopolitical tensions, ideological confrontation and tightened scrutiny over national security in recent years. Will this affect Chinese companies going overseas?\nClearly it’s very difficult for Chinese companies to invest in the United States. There is some evidence now that it’s difficult for Chinese companies to invest in Europe as well. But there are large swathes of the world where Chinese investment is very strong.\nThe whole of Southeast Asia, Latin America, increasingly the Middle East. There will be political barriers to Chinese investment in some places, but there will be plenty of opportunities for Chinese companies to invest elsewhere.\nIt’s important to remember that there’s been very little Chinese private sector investment in the rest of the world relative to the size of China’s economy. China is in the very early stages of its companies going out and figuring out how to operate in other environments.\nQuestions are still being asked over whether China can achieve its 5 per cent growth target this year, despite Beijing’s repeated pledges to do so. Why the expectation gap?\nWhat President Xi Jinping really wants is for China to become more technologically advanced. So the purpose of economic policy is to promote the creation of a technologically advanced economy.\nThe growth objective has been downgraded quite substantially from the past. If China grows by only 3 to 4 per cent on average for the next decade but continues to advance technologically at a rapid pace, that will be fine.\nOutside China, there’s a very strong tendency for people to go to extreme views. You say either China is going to take over the world tomorrow or is unsustainable and will all collapse. Both those views have been proven wrong.\nChina has done very well. It hasn’t taken over the world. And it still has a lot of problems and contradictions. There have been many predictions of collapse or crisis that have just not panned out over the years.\n\n\nIf you look at financial fragility, China has a lot of debt. There are a lot of problems in the financial sector, but it also has a national savings rate of over 40 per cent of GDP.\nThe amount of money that exists in the system to fund the financial sector is very large, and capital controls prevent that money from flowing out to the rest of the world.\nChina now is sometimes compared to Japan in the 1990s, but the basic problem is that China is a very different economy than Japan in 1990. In Japan, there was essentially a single national balance sheet – the financial system and the real economy were tied together.\nSo if you’re a bank and you own shares in Mitsubishi, then you care a lot about what Mitsubishi’s stock price is. Similarly, Mitsubishi cares a lot about what the bank’s stock price is. If all of the stock prices go down at once, both the financial sector and the real sector will be in trouble.\nThe other issue was that there was a lot of lending on land. Land prices, property prices were way more extravagant in Japan in 1990 than they have been recently in China. And as those asset prices fell, the combined balance sheet of “Japan, Inc.” took a huge hit.\nChina does not permit these kinds of cross-shareholdings between banks and companies. So when you look for heavily indebted entities, you can find many. But you can also find plenty of companies, particularly in the industrial sector, that are not particularly leveraged and are unaffected by debt problems that exist elsewhere in the economy.\nYou have a fragmented balance sheet, and you have asset prices that did not get as crazy as they did in Japan.\nThere is going to be a problem with the property sector for the rest of this decade. That’s going to be a big drag. Prices still have to fall quite a bit.\nThat’s going to be a big problem for a lot of the smaller banks in the Chinese system. It’s going to be a problem for local governments that rely on land sales for revenue.\nBut because it is fragmented, there are many other parts of the economy, in the industrial sector and services, that can keep growing relatively well.\nWe used to think of China as an economy that grew by 10 per cent a year, and then 7 per cent a year until recently. Now maybe it’s around 5 per cent. Those are real growth rates. But the really important thing is the slowdown in nominal growth, which has been much greater. If you look at nominal growth in the first decade of the 2000s, it was almost 20 per cent a year.\nToday, nominal growth is only about 4 per cent, less than the real growth rate, which is another way of saying that there’s a lot of deflationary pressure in the economy. Looking ahead over the next several years, China might be growing at 3 or 4 per cent in both real and nominal terms.\nChina can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary\n\nThe big difference is not about an economy that’s growing in real terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 5 per cent. It’s that the economy is growing in nominal terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 8 to 10 per cent.\nThe reduction in nominal growth is what matters for corporate profits.\nSo that’s where I would have a little bit of a problem with the Chinese way of framing – “Everything’s fine, we’re still going to grow by 5 per cent” – they’re growing at 5 per cent real, but there’s 1 per cent deflation.\nDeflation is not a pleasant thing. It creates a lot of problems. China can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary.\nSuspicions exist over China’s official data. Some point out the figures are sometimes inconsistent and overstated. What is your assessment of the issue?\nWe use the official data a lot because there isn’t that much else out there. So in some sectors – property or automobiles – you have some private sector data sources that are very useful. But for the most part, you have to rely on official data.\nIf you look at the quality of data in China and then look at the quality of data in India, on average the quality of the Indian data is a bit worse. No one talks about this. The reason is because India is a democratic open system and China is not.\nWhen people say we can’t trust the statistics, they’re not actually making a careful judgment about statistical quality. They are making a judgment about the nature of the political system. And what they’re saying is we don’t trust statements made by the government of China because it’s not democratic.\nIf the data makes sense over time and triangulates with other data, then it’s probably fine. If it doesn’t make sense, then you start to question it.\nFrankly, this is what analysts have to do with any data set, whether it’s China, India, the United States or the European Union. You never take the data at face value. You always ask yourself, “Does this data make sense compared to other things?” If it does, we’ll move on.\nIf it doesn’t, we need to investigate further. The reality is that we’re able to do a pretty good job of describing what’s going on in China by using the official data.\nAnd there’s some things where we just have to acknowledge the data is really bad and we can’t use it, so that limits our ability to make observations on certain topics.\n\n\n\u003c!--//--\u003e\u003c![CDATA[// \u003e\u003c!--\n\n!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--\u003e\u003c!]]\u003e\n\nWhat you have to do is do the hard work of looking at the data carefully, seeing what makes sense, using the stuff that has proved over time to be consistent and usable and throwing out the stuff that has proved consistently not usable. We do this every day in our work on the Chinese economy.\nThe final point here is if they were simply making up the numbers, telling false stories about the economy, eventually reality is going to catch up.\nGenerally speaking, the complaints that you hear about data quality are: I don’t really want to do the work of understanding what’s really going on here. I’m just going to reject the data and make up some story based on some cherry-picked evidence.\nI just don’t find that to be analytically very satisfactory, particularly in light of the fact that China has a very long track record of successful growth and is dealing with a wide range of problems.\nThere are tons and tons of data problems. Some of them are the result of political interference, that is without doubt. And the job of analysts is just to work through that and try to determine the noise.\nThe Pacific Ocean seems to create an information gap as well as one of physical distance. Some are reluctant to come to China and are losing confidence in the Chinese market, despite Beijing’s pledges to open further. Why does it seem the world’s two largest economies are losing touch with each other?\nFor essentially three years, China was locked away from the rest of the world. And they’ve been very slow to resume contact. There was a lot of damage done by the three years of Covid isolation. It exacerbated the mistrust between the United States and China.\nThe Chinese government for the last few years has been very clear that they want to tighten up security across a wide spectrum of things. They’ve been very systematic at increasing security controls of various kinds.\nThis means a crackdown on various kinds of information-gathering activities. And now the Chinese government wants to regulate them much more tightly.\nThe problem on the Chinese side is that security forces have been given very wide latitude to go after problems. They are not held accountable for the collateral damage in investor confidence.\nChina’s efforts to reassure people have not been very convincing, because if you look at the way the law and the way the regulations are written, there are severe penalties for various offences that are not clearly specified.\nSo people want to know what to do to comply. How can they be 100 per cent sure they can comply?\n\n\n\n\nA lot of it has to do with the greater security focus within China, which is reflective of an environment where many countries are doing the same thing.\nYou could see a similar thing in the United States, where there’s a lot more emphasis on security support. But the concern of foreign companies is that the Chinese system by its nature is less transparent and less predictable.\nWill hawkish voices in the US become stronger by using overcapacity to attack China? Is the American government politicising overcapacity?\nI have problems with the term “overcapacity”, because I don’t really know what it means. And it doesn’t really have a precise meaning. This is a somewhat politicised discussion.\nThese countries want to maintain a certain production structure. They want to have their own carmakers.\nAs a responsible economy, China should be working on both the supply and the demand side. You can’t just have a supply policy and no demand policy.\nThe Chinese argument is: “We have a very successful manufacturing economy. Why aren’t you happy that we’re making all of this stuff that’s cheaper?”\nSo now people can buy electric cars for US$10,000 or US$15,000 instead of a conventional vehicle at US$25,000 or US$30,000. This is a benefit for consumers.\nOn the Western side, they have this overcapacity thing, which is really a meaningless term. And they’re unwilling to acknowledge the fact that China does have a very effective competitive manufacturing system.\nIf you have unbalanced policies where you are massively increasing supply – so you have the ability to sell goods in other people’s markets – but you are doing very little to increase demand, you’re not making it easier for other people to sell in your market.\nPeople look at that and say that’s not fair. You want more access to our market and you’re not reciprocating by creating a vibrant domestic market.\nBoth sides need to rethink what’s the best way to come to an accommodation, because the risk that we have right now is that these tensions are growing so large that it is going to create a lot more friction in the global trading system.\nThere is a problem in this ‘high fence, small yard’ thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger\n\nYou can have a lot more protectionism, more tariffs, more controls on trade and investment. And if that happens, then everyone becomes poorer.\nDo you think the “high fence, small yard” strategy of the Biden administration will kill China’s technological development?\nNo. China has a very dynamic industrial ecosystem. There’s a lot of really competitive companies. It has a whole range of infrastructure to support it. The government is committed to funding basic research.\nI don’t think this will derail China’s technological development. There is a problem in this “high fence, small yard” thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger.\nAs successive [US] administrations come in, what they’re probably going to do is impose more controls on the definition. And at the end of the day, I don’t think that’s going to throw China off-course, but it is a constant strain on the relationship.\nSo the China-US relationship will become more adversarial.\nIs the US facing a dilemma of inflation, especially if Trump gets re-elected?\nIf Trump gets elected – certainly the policies that have been put out by Trump’s people would be highly inflationary. So all these tariffs, not just on imports from China, but on imports from everywhere in the world.\nTighter control on immigration would reduce labour supply, which will push up wages. Everything they say they will do would contribute to inflation.\nWill they actually do all those things? Trump is very good at reading the mood of the room. At some instinctive level, he might recognise that the inflationary policies he pursued between 2016 and 2020 are much less appropriate in today’s environment.\n\n\nNow, the US economy is clearly inflationary. And if you throw in more inflationary policies, you could have a big problem. Trump might be a sufficiently smart politician to recognise that’s dangerous.\nOn the broader China question, it’s very uncertain. If Trump is elected, there’s no question that the security side – the defence department, state department – will become more hawkish than under Biden, and will be inclined to be antagonistic towards China.\nThe final thing is that – if you look at the original Trump presidency, he had some very hawkish people on China. But at the treasury department, in particular, he had people who were trying to be very nuanced and have a constructive relationship with China.\nSo it’s quite possible that we’ll have a similar dynamic in the second Trump term. There are different people in different parts of the administration that have different views.\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"em","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Arthur Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research firm. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, Kroeber worked for 15 years as a financial journalist and economic analyst. He is an adjunct professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, was published in 2020."}]},{"type":"text","data":" "},{"type":"em","children":[{"type":"text","data":"For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click"}]},{"type":"text","data":" "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/series/3256715/open-questions?campaign=Open_Questions\u0026module=series_LHS_header\u0026pgtype=article?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"ee4ad8a6-d7d4-4728-8c7f-e23d6b91aab9","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"em","children":[{"type":"text","data":"here"}]}]},{"type":"em","children":[{"type":"text","data":"."}]}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You have suggested that Beijing should roll out economic reforms to achieve sustainable economic growth. What specific reforms? What is your assessment of the sweeping reforms unveiled at the 18th Central Committee’s third plenum in 2013? What should we expect from the coming session?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Using the word “reform” to talk about what’s going on in China is not all that helpful. The reason is when people outside China, particularly from the United States or Europe, they specifically mean reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy and increase the role of markets in the private sector. China really is not doing very much of that."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In my opinion they should be doing a lot more to reform the financial and fiscal systems and improve market regulation, to enable core dynamism and private-sector activity, and boost productivity across the board."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"But when the Chinese leadership talks about reform, they mean something different. They believe they are doing a lot of reform in the sense of changing forms of organisation, regulatory systems, and the way that capital flows around the economy with the objective of sustaining economic growth and accelerating the pace of technological change."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Now, if you go back to the 2013 third plenum document, one major point was that the market would "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1354411/chinas-leadership-approves-key-reform-package-close-third-plenum","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"5efad5f6-d1a7-4123-bfec-b825192c6315","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"play a decisive role"}]},{"type":"text","data":" in resource allocation. This implied a mandate for more market reforms."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Then almost immediately after that, it says the state will continue to have a dominant or leading role in the economy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This reflected the fact that the document was somewhat political, it was trying to placate a wide range of different constituencies within the government – the pro-market people and the pro-state people."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It also reflects a pretty fundamental perspective that has been true throughout Chinese economic history of the last 40 or 50 years, that they do see a large role for markets but also a very large role for the state."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"They are not aiming for an American-style or European-style system. They are aiming for a system which has a lot of market forces in it and a lot of private enterprises, but also has a much larger role for the state in terms of overall direction and coordination."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The case for the advocates of a bigger state role grew in 2015, when there was a big stock market crash. There were a lot of capital outflows, and it took them quite a while to stabilise the financial situation of the country."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"They had to impose a lot of regulations in the stock market. They had to impose capital controls. That whole episode made the senior leadership think, “What can we do if we go too far with this market stuff? It will just become destabilising.”"}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/p-GXddexU6Y?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"China’s third plenum: what to expect from the much-delayed policy meeting","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/07/05/CLEAN_third-plenum_3.jpg?itok=5k7cLtou","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/07/05/CLEAN_third-plenum_3.jpg?itok=blAX4_km","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/07/05/CLEAN_third-plenum_3.jpg","data-duration":"09:12","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3269328","data-youtube-id":"p-GXddexU6Y"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"And then you look at the internet companies, they got very big, very powerful and arguably not very accountable. So the government decided they weren’t regulating things tightly enough."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"5"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Basically all of the policies of the last five or six years have focused on increasing regulation in the financial sector and the internet sector; and most recently in the property sector. All of these areas were seen as areas of risk that were created by uncontrolled marketisation."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So now the view of the government is we have maintained this anti risk policy, but then we also need to promote new sources of growth, particularly since they’ve had this big crackdown on the property sector, which accounts for about one-fourth of the economy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You need another growth engine. The idea of new productive forces is basically to mobilise huge technological investments to drive productivity growth in the future."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6","infiniteAdsAfterNumber":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"What we’re likely to see in the third plenum is a restatement and elaboration of this sort of general industrial policy-led growth model, maybe a little bit more colour on exactly how they expect this to work."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s trade with the US and the EU have dropped. Is China able to reverse the trend, or is it inevitable that Beijing will have to focus on the developing world?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You don’t want to look at China’s share of total global exports. You want to look at their share of manufactured exports. That’s been quite stable at around a little over 20 per cent for the last several years."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There does not seem to be any indication that it is significantly shrinking. China is so far doing a pretty good job of retaining its competitiveness and maintaining a fairly stable share of global trade and manufacturing."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It is sometimes misleading to look at the headline value of exports. So for example, if you look at the headline numbers, Chinese exports to the United States have taken a big hit."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It used to be that China accounted for about 22 per cent of goods imported to the US, and that’s now down to 14 per cent. So you would say China is losing a lot of market share in the United States. The problem with that is, a lot of that reduction in value is not real."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So for example, you’re a Chinese maker of solar panels. You can’t send your stuff directly to the United States "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3263681/chinas-solar-panel-industry-seeks-curb-vicious-competition-mas-and-easy-exits-control-capacity-eu-us","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"2503441b-3bf7-40c4-96e9-fd2286d65c8b","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"because of tariffs"}]},{"type":"text","data":". You set up a factory in Vietnam and Malaysia and you send it there, the value of that product is still overwhelmingly as a Chinese-made product."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If today I’m exporting 100 solar panels from China to the US and then tomorrow I’m exporting zero solar panels from China to the US, but 100 from Vietnam to the US, that would show up as a reduction in China’s export share to the US, but in reality the trade was just diverted through a third country."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"It’s going to be very difficult to fully decouple the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So Apple has started to move some of its cellphone production out of China. But if you look at those iPhones, where are the components coming from?"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In many cases, they’re coming from China, and going to India or Vietnam just for the final assembly. Again, the ability of Chinese producers to sell stuff into the American market is much larger than is shown by headline trade data."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China will continue – for quite a few years – to have a very robust position in global manufactured trade, including in the developed markets."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It’s going to be very difficult to "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3268878/china-risk-wider-decoupling-after-us-eu-asean-trade-partners-balk-imports-flood","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"b033f825-a938-4cab-a3e4-e1a704ba1df8","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"fully decouple"}]},{"type":"text","data":" the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It looks like China is facing challenges in global supply chain realignment. People are saying China’s status in the global supply chain is hard to replace, but what about the prospects over the long run? Who will be the “next China”, India or Vietnam?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The short answer is that there is no “next China”. There’s no one else."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In China, as they have moved up the value chain and started to be much more successful in machinery, they are still very competitive in these traditional sectors."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"They are broadly competitive across low-value sectors and high-value sectors. They have such an enormous labour pool and such effective infrastructure that they are able to be competitive across a wide range of goods."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Supply chains are very sticky. China has a tonne of comparative advantages in terms of size, the productivity of its workforce, the quality of its infrastructure and the industrial ecosystem it has created in many sectors."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If you look at the candidates for who could replace China, they all have problems. India has a big workforce. But it is not as well-educated as China."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Female labour force participation is very low. That’s a big problem, because if you look at a lot of industrial history in East Asia, the female workforce has been a very important part of building up manufacturing systems. Quality of infrastructure is extremely poor."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You look at a country like Vietnam, which in many ways has similar endowments in China in terms of high-quality workforce, and a communist party-led government that is very development-focused. They have a lot of pro-growth policies. But they don’t have the scale."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"scmp-code-block methode-html-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"type":"iframe","attribs":{"title":"China's monthly exports","aria-label":"Interactive line chart","id":"datawrapper-chart-zY5Xs","src":"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zY5Xs/12/","scrolling":"no","frameborder":"0","style":"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;","height":"508","data-external":"1","name":"datawrapper-chart-zY5Xs"},"children":[]},{"type":"script","attribs":{"type":"text/javascript"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n\u003c!--//--\u003e\u003c![CDATA[// \u003e\u003c!--\n\n!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--\u003e\u003c!]]\u003e\n"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There are many countries that can replicate some part of the Chinese system, but there’s no one who is even close to being able to do the whole set of things."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China has been robustly developing its artificial intelligence (AI). Do you think China will succeed in levelling up its technology and advanced manufacturing?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The constraint obviously is the "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3238354/tech-war-us-ban-tailor-made-nvidia-and-intel-chips-hits-beijings-ai-ambitions?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"b5c06362-64e1-4d0a-80da-9c169e4643bf","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"advanced chip controls"}]},{"type":"text","data":" that have been placed on China by the United States. So for instance, some of the more advanced AI applications require much more high-powered chips."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The real question about the pace of Chinese AI development is how quickly China will be able to come up with adequate substitutes for the high-powered AI chips that they can no longer source from the United States. Most people think that’s going to be a period of several years, at least, for them to be able to fully replicate those capabilities they’re now being deprived of."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"On one hand, China is facing an ageing population. On the other hand, China is putting resources into robotics and automation. Do you think robots will replace manual labour one day? To what extent can it replace the human labour force?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This is a good moment to talk about the Chinese government’s overarching policy framework, which they call “new productive forces”. It’s now been incorporated in a lot of the top-level economic planning, documents and policies."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It’s a new formulation of a comprehensive, technologically driven development strategy which Xi Jinping has been pushing forward for a decade. And part of what they’re talking about is figuring out ways to use industrial automation, whether it’s robots, AI, or some other kind of technology to improve the productivity of existing manufacturing."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Part of that also is replacing factory floor labour, because of "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3257727/china-doubles-subsidies-child-elderly-care-facilities-deal-demographic-decline","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"7090966f-dc9c-43d6-85ce-9b46d9ab1d0f","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"the demographic changes"}]},{"type":"text","data":". It’s very clear that policymakers in China understand there’s a problem here that they need to deal with."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"What will China do to maintain its status in the supply chain? Is China still investible over the long run?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Fundamentally, the Chinese leadership has been very clear that maintaining a large industrial economy is the goal. They don’t accept the idea that China should just become a pure services and consumer-driven economy."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The basic thing that they are doing is making sure all kinds of sectors stay in China. They have a lot of tools to work with – creating favourable financing conditions for industrial companies, incentive programmes for technological development, and continued investments in infrastructure."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"China is still a non-optional market … It’s still a big source of incremental growth"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This is not necessarily good for financial investors who are just looking at corporate profits of domestic companies in highly competitive sectors. But for corporate investors who invest in physical production or services in China, it’s a very different story."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China is still a non-optional market for many international companies. It is very large. It’s still a big source of incremental growth. If you look at this whole debate about electric vehicles (EVs), the companies that are most opposed to putting tariffs on Chinese EV imports are the German carmakers."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"These are the guys who are going to be most affected by cheap Chinese EVs. Why aren’t they in favour of tariffs? They want to maintain their market access in China. And they’re afraid that if these tariffs get approved, then the retaliation will be government policies that restrict their ability to operate within China."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"We’ve seen heightened geopolitical tensions, ideological confrontation and tightened scrutiny over national security in recent years. Will this affect Chinese companies going overseas?"}]}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Clearly it’s very difficult for Chinese companies to invest in the United States. There is some evidence now that it’s difficult for Chinese companies to invest in Europe as well. But there are "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3250695/china-has-made-mexico-premier-investment-destination-it-us-detour-or-something-more","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"cc8b9a1f-b899-4090-bdd2-f71311f69221","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"large swathes of the world"}]},{"type":"text","data":" where Chinese investment is very strong."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The whole of Southeast Asia, Latin America, increasingly the Middle East. There will be political barriers to Chinese investment in some places, but there will be plenty of opportunities for Chinese companies to invest elsewhere."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It’s important to remember that there’s been very little Chinese private sector investment in the rest of the world relative to the size of China’s economy. China is in the very early stages of its companies going out and figuring out how to operate in other environments."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Questions are still being asked over whether China can achieve its 5 per cent growth target this year, despite Beijing’s repeated pledges to do so. Why the expectation gap?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"What President Xi Jinping really wants is for China to become more technologically advanced. So the purpose of economic policy is to promote the creation of a technologically advanced economy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The growth objective has been downgraded quite substantially from the past. If China grows by only 3 to 4 per cent on average for the next decade but continues to advance technologically at a rapid pace, that will be fine."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Outside China, there’s a very strong tendency for people to go to extreme views. You say either China is going to take over the world tomorrow or is unsustainable and will all collapse. Both those views have been proven wrong."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China has done very well. It hasn’t taken over the world. And it still has a lot of problems and contradictions. There have been many predictions of collapse or crisis that have just not panned out over the years."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/w5GqsoH1U-g?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"From economic ‘miracle’ to cautionary tale: Japan’s development and recession","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/02/20/CLEAN-T.jpg?itok=4j2gxSQc","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/02/20/CLEAN-T.jpg?itok=NaiBz21-","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/02/20/CLEAN-T.jpg","data-duration":"07:43","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3252578","data-youtube-id":"w5GqsoH1U-g"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If you look at financial fragility, China has a lot of debt. There are a lot of problems in the financial sector, but it also has a national savings rate of over 40 per cent of GDP."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"50"}},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The amount of money that exists in the system to fund the financial sector is very large, and capital controls prevent that money from flowing out to the rest of the world."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China now is "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3268499/chinese-companies-going-global-should-learn-japans-mistakes-academic-says","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"790dded5-0c79-4908-9e92-b05a6f8837da","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"sometimes compared to Japan"}]},{"type":"text","data":" in the 1990s, but the basic problem is that China is a very different economy than Japan in 1990. In Japan, there was essentially a single national balance sheet – the financial system and the real economy were tied together."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So if you’re a bank and you own shares in Mitsubishi, then you care a lot about what Mitsubishi’s stock price is. Similarly, Mitsubishi cares a lot about what the bank’s stock price is. If all of the stock prices go down at once, both the financial sector and the real sector will be in trouble."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The other issue was that there was a lot of lending on land. Land prices, property prices were way more extravagant in Japan in 1990 than they have been recently in China. And as those asset prices fell, the combined balance sheet of “Japan, Inc.” took a huge hit."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China does not permit these kinds of cross-shareholdings between banks and companies. So when you look for heavily indebted entities, you can find many. But you can also find plenty of companies, particularly in the industrial sector, that are not particularly leveraged and are unaffected by debt problems that exist elsewhere in the economy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You have a fragmented balance sheet, and you have asset prices that did not get as crazy as they did in Japan."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There is going to be a problem with the property sector for the rest of this decade. That’s going to be a big drag. Prices still have to fall quite a bit."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"That’s going to be a big problem for a lot of the smaller banks in the Chinese system. It’s going to be a problem for local governments that "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3263385/will-chinas-fleet-policies-buoy-housing-sales-stem-slack-tides-property-market","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"9d11da92-a435-485a-863c-6d2d7e9b15ab","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"rely on land sales"}]},{"type":"text","data":" for revenue."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"But because it is fragmented, there are many other parts of the economy, in the industrial sector and services, that can keep growing relatively well."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"We used to think of China as an economy that grew by 10 per cent a year, and then 7 per cent a year until recently. Now maybe it’s around 5 per cent. Those are real growth rates. But the really important thing is the slowdown in nominal growth, which has been much greater. If you look at nominal growth in the first decade of the 2000s, it was almost 20 per cent a year."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Today, nominal growth is only about 4 per cent, less than the real growth rate, which is another way of saying that there’s a lot of deflationary pressure in the economy. Looking ahead over the next several years, China might be growing at 3 or 4 per cent in both real and nominal terms."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"China can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The big difference is not about an economy that’s growing in real terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 5 per cent. It’s that the economy is growing in nominal terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 8 to 10 per cent."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The reduction in nominal growth is what matters for corporate profits."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So that’s where I would have a little bit of a problem with the Chinese way of framing – “Everything’s fine, we’re still going to grow by 5 per cent” – they’re growing at 5 per cent real, but there’s 1 per cent deflation."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Deflation is not a pleasant thing. It creates a lot of problems. China can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Suspicions exist over China’s official data. Some point out the figures are sometimes inconsistent and overstated. What is your assessment of the issue?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"We use the official data a lot because there isn’t that much else out there. So in some sectors – property or automobiles – you have some private sector data sources that are very useful. But for the most part, you have to rely on official data."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If you look at the quality of data in China and then look at the quality of data in India, on average the quality of the Indian data is a bit worse. No one talks about this. The reason is because India is a democratic open system and China is not."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"When people say we can’t trust the statistics, they’re not actually making a careful judgment about statistical quality. They are making a judgment about the nature of the political system. And what they’re saying is we don’t trust statements made by the government of China because it’s not democratic."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If the data makes sense over time and triangulates with other data, then it’s probably fine. If it doesn’t make sense, then you start to question it."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Frankly, this is what analysts have to do with any data set, whether it’s China, India, the United States or the European Union. You never take the data at face value. You always ask yourself, “Does this data make sense compared to other things?” If it does, we’ll move on."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If it doesn’t, we need to investigate further. The reality is that we’re able to do a pretty good job of describing what’s going on in China by using the official data."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"And there’s some things where we just have to acknowledge the data is really bad and we can’t use it, so that limits our ability to make observations on certain topics."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"scmp-code-block methode-html-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"type":"iframe","attribs":{"title":"China's factory gate inflation","aria-label":"Interactive line chart","id":"datawrapper-chart-u4l27","src":"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/u4l27/27/","scrolling":"no","frameborder":"0","style":"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;","height":"469","data-external":"1","name":"datawrapper-chart-u4l27"},"children":[]},{"type":"script","attribs":{"type":"text/javascript"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n\u003c!--//--\u003e\u003c![CDATA[// \u003e\u003c!--\n\n!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--\u003e\u003c!]]\u003e\n"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"What you have to do is do the hard work of looking at the data carefully, seeing what makes sense, using the stuff that has proved over time to be consistent and usable and throwing out the stuff that has proved consistently not usable. We do this every day in our work on the Chinese economy."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The final point here is if they were simply making up the numbers, telling false stories about the economy, eventually reality is going to catch up."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Generally speaking, the complaints that you hear about data quality are: I don’t really want to do the work of understanding what’s really going on here. I’m just going to reject the data and make up some story based on some cherry-picked evidence."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"I just don’t find that to be analytically very satisfactory, particularly in light of the fact that China has a very long track record of successful growth and is dealing with a wide range of problems."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There are tons and tons of data problems. Some of them are the result of political interference, that is without doubt. And the job of analysts is just to work through that and try to determine the noise."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The Pacific Ocean seems to create an information gap as well as one of physical distance. Some are reluctant to come to China and are losing confidence in the Chinese market, despite Beijing’s pledges to open further. Why does it seem the world’s two largest economies are losing touch with each other?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"For essentially three years, China was locked away from the rest of the world. And they’ve been very slow to resume contact. There was a lot of damage done by the three years of Covid isolation. It exacerbated the mistrust between the United States and China."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The Chinese government for the last few years has been very clear that they want to tighten up security across a wide spectrum of things. They’ve been very systematic at increasing security controls of various kinds."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This means a crackdown on various kinds of information-gathering activities. And now the Chinese government wants to regulate them much more tightly."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The problem on the Chinese side is that security forces have been given "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3238712/worried-and-fearful-chinas-move-amend-state-secrets-law-fuels-concern-among-businesses","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"523b0d80-908f-426b-9aab-029ec9dc6564","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"very wide latitude"}]},{"type":"text","data":" to go after problems. They are not held accountable for the collateral damage in investor confidence."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s efforts to reassure people have not been very convincing, because if you look at the way the law and the way the regulations are written, there are severe penalties for various offences that are not clearly specified."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So people want to know what to do to comply. How can they be 100 per cent sure they can comply?"}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"scmp-multimedia-embed"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"type":"iframe","attribs":{"width":"100%","height":"392px","src":"https://multimedia.scmp.com/2019/graphics/launchers/20230130.html","scrolling":"no","frameborder":"0"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"text","data":"\n"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"A lot of it has to do with the greater security focus within China, which is reflective of an environment where many countries are doing the same thing."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You could see a similar thing in the United States, where there’s a lot more emphasis on security support. But the concern of foreign companies is that the Chinese system by its nature is less transparent and less predictable."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Will hawkish voices in the US become stronger by using overcapacity to attack China? Is the American government politicising overcapacity?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"I have problems with the term “overcapacity”, because I don’t really know what it means. And it doesn’t really have a precise meaning. This is a somewhat politicised discussion."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"These countries want to maintain a certain production structure. They want to have their own carmakers."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As a responsible economy, China should be working on both the supply and the demand side. You can’t just have a supply policy and no demand policy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The Chinese argument is: “We have a very successful manufacturing economy. Why aren’t you happy that we’re making all of this stuff that’s cheaper?”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So now people can buy electric cars for US$10,000 or US$15,000 instead of a conventional vehicle at US$25,000 or US$30,000. This is a benefit for consumers."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"On the Western side, they have this overcapacity thing, which is really a meaningless term. And they’re "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3262505/how-chinas-ev-overcapacity-has-come-head-after-15-years-and-whats-store-industrial-policy-race-us","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"75d7f5ce-9b75-43bb-8c02-9127410b0f59","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"unwilling to acknowledge"}]},{"type":"text","data":" the fact that China does have a very effective competitive manufacturing system."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If you have unbalanced policies where you are massively increasing supply – so you have the ability to sell goods in other people’s markets – but you are doing very little to increase demand, you’re not making it easier for other people to sell in your market."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"People look at that and say that’s not fair. You want more access to our market and you’re not reciprocating by creating a vibrant domestic market."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Both sides need to rethink what’s the best way to come to an accommodation, because the risk that we have right now is that these tensions are growing so large that it is going to create a lot more friction in the global trading system."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"There is a problem in this ‘high fence, small yard’ thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You can have a lot more protectionism, more tariffs, more controls on trade and investment. And if that happens, then everyone becomes poorer."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Do you think the"}]},{"type":"text","data":" "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3247294/china-steps-efforts-adapt-us-led-reshoring-campaign-seems-set-stone","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"ee008e63-1973-46e4-b0ce-7ce0f79176bd","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“high fence, small yard” strategy"}]}]},{"type":"text","data":" "},{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"of the Biden administration will kill China’s technological development?"}]}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"90"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"No. China has a very dynamic industrial ecosystem. There’s a lot of really competitive companies. It has a whole range of infrastructure to support it. The government is committed to funding basic research."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"I don’t think this will derail China’s technological development. There is a problem in this “high fence, small yard” thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As successive [US] administrations come in, what they’re probably going to do is impose more controls on the definition. And at the end of the day, I don’t think that’s going to throw China off-course, but it is a constant strain on the relationship."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So the China-US relationship will become more adversarial."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Is the US facing a dilemma of inflation, especially if Trump gets re-elected?"}]}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If Trump gets elected – certainly the policies that have been put out by Trump’s people would be highly inflationary. So all these tariffs, not just on "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3250911/trump-would-impose-tariffs-china-again-if-re-elected-november-we-have-do-it","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"c829e846-05b0-4d13-8424-11068e5cdc9a","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"imports from China"}]},{"type":"text","data":", but on imports from everywhere in the world."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Tighter control on immigration would reduce labour supply, which will push up wages. Everything they say they will do would contribute to inflation."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Will they actually do all those things? Trump is very good at reading the mood of the room. At some instinctive level, he might recognise that the inflationary policies he pursued between 2016 and 2020 are much less appropriate in today’s environment."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/6pfYoV8HoZ0?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"US proposes new round of tariffs on China in latest trade war escalation","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/05/15/CLEAN---thumbnail.jpg?itok=Z-vg6egf","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/05/15/CLEAN---thumbnail.jpg?itok=wRKsBzom","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/05/15/CLEAN---thumbnail.jpg","data-duration":"01:52","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3262767","data-youtube-id":"6pfYoV8HoZ0"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Now, the US economy is clearly inflationary. And if you throw in more inflationary policies, you could have a big problem. Trump might be a sufficiently smart politician to recognise that’s dangerous."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"On the broader China question, it’s very uncertain. If Trump is elected, there’s no question that the security side – the defence department, state department – will become more hawkish than under Biden, and will be inclined to be antagonistic towards China."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The final thing is that – if you look at the original Trump presidency, he had some very hawkish people on China. But at the treasury department, in particular, he had people who were trying to be very nuanced and have a constructive relationship with China."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So it’s quite possible that we’ll have a similar dynamic in the second Trump term. 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She focuses on China's trade relationships with the United States, the European Union and Australia, as well as the Belt \u0026 Road Initiative and currency issues. She graduated from New York University with a master's degree in journalism in 2013. An award-winning journalist, she has worked in Hong Kong, China and New York for the Hong Kong Economic Journal and the Financial Times, E\u0026E News, Forbes, The Economist Intelligence Unit, Nikkei Asia and Coconuts Media. \r\n","socialLinks":[{"class":"twitter","title":"","url":"https://twitter.com/KandyWong_SCMP"},{"class":"email","title":"","url":"mailto:kandy.wong@scmp.com"}],"role":{"text":"Correspondent, Political Economy\n"},"areaOfExpertise":["China economy, markets coverage, Hong Kong politics"]}],"headline":"Why this China analyst says full decoupling is unlikely, and what’s missed in reform talk","socialHeadline":"Arthur Kroeber: why China decoupling is unlikely, and talk of reform 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of Gavekal Dragonomics says efforts to dislodge China from global supply chains are unlikely to succeed and discussions of ‘reform’ from outside the country often miss vital context.\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Founder of Gavekal Dragonomics says efforts to dislodge China from global supply chains are unlikely to succeed and discussions of ‘reform’ from outside the country often miss vital context."}]}]},"subHeadline":{"text":"Arthur Kroeber, founder of Gavekal Dragonomics, says China’s role in supply chains is unlikely to change and discussion of reform from abroad is often incomplete\n","json":[{"type":"ul","children":[{"type":"li","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Arthur Kroeber, founder of Gavekal Dragonomics, says China’s role in supply chains is unlikely to change and discussion of reform from abroad is often incomplete"}]},{"type":"text","data":"\n"}]}]},"body":{"text":"Arthur Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research firm. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, Kroeber worked for 15 years as a financial journalist and economic analyst. He is an adjunct professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, was published in 2020. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.\nYou have suggested that Beijing should roll out economic reforms to achieve sustainable economic growth. What specific reforms? What is your assessment of the sweeping reforms unveiled at the 18th Central Committee’s third plenum in 2013? What should we expect from the coming session?\nUsing the word “reform” to talk about what’s going on in China is not all that helpful. The reason is when people outside China, particularly from the United States or Europe, they specifically mean reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy and increase the role of markets in the private sector. China really is not doing very much of that.\nIn my opinion they should be doing a lot more to reform the financial and fiscal systems and improve market regulation, to enable core dynamism and private-sector activity, and boost productivity across the board.\nBut when the Chinese leadership talks about reform, they mean something different. They believe they are doing a lot of reform in the sense of changing forms of organisation, regulatory systems, and the way that capital flows around the economy with the objective of sustaining economic growth and accelerating the pace of technological change.\nNow, if you go back to the 2013 third plenum document, one major point was that the market would play a decisive role in resource allocation. This implied a mandate for more market reforms.\nThen almost immediately after that, it says the state will continue to have a dominant or leading role in the economy.\nThis reflected the fact that the document was somewhat political, it was trying to placate a wide range of different constituencies within the government – the pro-market people and the pro-state people.\nIt also reflects a pretty fundamental perspective that has been true throughout Chinese economic history of the last 40 or 50 years, that they do see a large role for markets but also a very large role for the state.\nThey are not aiming for an American-style or European-style system. They are aiming for a system which has a lot of market forces in it and a lot of private enterprises, but also has a much larger role for the state in terms of overall direction and coordination.\nThe case for the advocates of a bigger state role grew in 2015, when there was a big stock market crash. There were a lot of capital outflows, and it took them quite a while to stabilise the financial situation of the country.\nThey had to impose a lot of regulations in the stock market. They had to impose capital controls. That whole episode made the senior leadership think, “What can we do if we go too far with this market stuff? It will just become destabilising.”\n\n\nAnd then you look at the internet companies, they got very big, very powerful and arguably not very accountable. So the government decided they weren’t regulating things tightly enough.\nBasically all of the policies of the last five or six years have focused on increasing regulation in the financial sector and the internet sector; and most recently in the property sector. All of these areas were seen as areas of risk that were created by uncontrolled marketisation.\nSo now the view of the government is we have maintained this anti risk policy, but then we also need to promote new sources of growth, particularly since they’ve had this big crackdown on the property sector, which accounts for about one-fourth of the economy.\nYou need another growth engine. The idea of new productive forces is basically to mobilise huge technological investments to drive productivity growth in the future.\nWhat we’re likely to see in the third plenum is a restatement and elaboration of this sort of general industrial policy-led growth model, maybe a little bit more colour on exactly how they expect this to work.\nChina’s trade with the US and the EU have dropped. Is China able to reverse the trend, or is it inevitable that Beijing will have to focus on the developing world?\nYou don’t want to look at China’s share of total global exports. You want to look at their share of manufactured exports. That’s been quite stable at around a little over 20 per cent for the last several years.\nThere does not seem to be any indication that it is significantly shrinking. China is so far doing a pretty good job of retaining its competitiveness and maintaining a fairly stable share of global trade and manufacturing.\nIt is sometimes misleading to look at the headline value of exports. So for example, if you look at the headline numbers, Chinese exports to the United States have taken a big hit.\nIt used to be that China accounted for about 22 per cent of goods imported to the US, and that’s now down to 14 per cent. So you would say China is losing a lot of market share in the United States. The problem with that is, a lot of that reduction in value is not real.\nSo for example, you’re a Chinese maker of solar panels. You can’t send your stuff directly to the United States because of tariffs. You set up a factory in Vietnam and Malaysia and you send it there, the value of that product is still overwhelmingly as a Chinese-made product.\nIf today I’m exporting 100 solar panels from China to the US and then tomorrow I’m exporting zero solar panels from China to the US, but 100 from Vietnam to the US, that would show up as a reduction in China’s export share to the US, but in reality the trade was just diverted through a third country.\nIt’s going to be very difficult to fully decouple the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains\n\nSo Apple has started to move some of its cellphone production out of China. But if you look at those iPhones, where are the components coming from?\nIn many cases, they’re coming from China, and going to India or Vietnam just for the final assembly. Again, the ability of Chinese producers to sell stuff into the American market is much larger than is shown by headline trade data.\nChina will continue – for quite a few years – to have a very robust position in global manufactured trade, including in the developed markets.\nIt’s going to be very difficult to fully decouple the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains.\nIt looks like China is facing challenges in global supply chain realignment. People are saying China’s status in the global supply chain is hard to replace, but what about the prospects over the long run? Who will be the “next China”, India or Vietnam?\nThe short answer is that there is no “next China”. There’s no one else.\nIn China, as they have moved up the value chain and started to be much more successful in machinery, they are still very competitive in these traditional sectors.\nThey are broadly competitive across low-value sectors and high-value sectors. They have such an enormous labour pool and such effective infrastructure that they are able to be competitive across a wide range of goods.\nSupply chains are very sticky. China has a tonne of comparative advantages in terms of size, the productivity of its workforce, the quality of its infrastructure and the industrial ecosystem it has created in many sectors.\nIf you look at the candidates for who could replace China, they all have problems. India has a big workforce. But it is not as well-educated as China.\nFemale labour force participation is very low. That’s a big problem, because if you look at a lot of industrial history in East Asia, the female workforce has been a very important part of building up manufacturing systems. Quality of infrastructure is extremely poor.\nYou look at a country like Vietnam, which in many ways has similar endowments in China in terms of high-quality workforce, and a communist party-led government that is very development-focused. They have a lot of pro-growth policies. But they don’t have the scale.\n\n\n\u003c!--//--\u003e\u003c![CDATA[// \u003e\u003c!--\n\n!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--\u003e\u003c!]]\u003e\n\nThere are many countries that can replicate some part of the Chinese system, but there’s no one who is even close to being able to do the whole set of things.\nChina has been robustly developing its artificial intelligence (AI). Do you think China will succeed in levelling up its technology and advanced manufacturing?\nThe constraint obviously is the advanced chip controls that have been placed on China by the United States. So for instance, some of the more advanced AI applications require much more high-powered chips.\nThe real question about the pace of Chinese AI development is how quickly China will be able to come up with adequate substitutes for the high-powered AI chips that they can no longer source from the United States. Most people think that’s going to be a period of several years, at least, for them to be able to fully replicate those capabilities they’re now being deprived of.\nOn one hand, China is facing an ageing population. On the other hand, China is putting resources into robotics and automation. Do you think robots will replace manual labour one day? To what extent can it replace the human labour force?\nThis is a good moment to talk about the Chinese government’s overarching policy framework, which they call “new productive forces”. It’s now been incorporated in a lot of the top-level economic planning, documents and policies.\nIt’s a new formulation of a comprehensive, technologically driven development strategy which Xi Jinping has been pushing forward for a decade. And part of what they’re talking about is figuring out ways to use industrial automation, whether it’s robots, AI, or some other kind of technology to improve the productivity of existing manufacturing.\nPart of that also is replacing factory floor labour, because of the demographic changes. It’s very clear that policymakers in China understand there’s a problem here that they need to deal with.\nWhat will China do to maintain its status in the supply chain? Is China still investible over the long run?\nFundamentally, the Chinese leadership has been very clear that maintaining a large industrial economy is the goal. They don’t accept the idea that China should just become a pure services and consumer-driven economy.\nThe basic thing that they are doing is making sure all kinds of sectors stay in China. They have a lot of tools to work with – creating favourable financing conditions for industrial companies, incentive programmes for technological development, and continued investments in infrastructure.\nChina is still a non-optional market … It’s still a big source of incremental growth\n\nThis is not necessarily good for financial investors who are just looking at corporate profits of domestic companies in highly competitive sectors. But for corporate investors who invest in physical production or services in China, it’s a very different story.\nChina is still a non-optional market for many international companies. It is very large. It’s still a big source of incremental growth. If you look at this whole debate about electric vehicles (EVs), the companies that are most opposed to putting tariffs on Chinese EV imports are the German carmakers.\nThese are the guys who are going to be most affected by cheap Chinese EVs. Why aren’t they in favour of tariffs? They want to maintain their market access in China. And they’re afraid that if these tariffs get approved, then the retaliation will be government policies that restrict their ability to operate within China.\nWe’ve seen heightened geopolitical tensions, ideological confrontation and tightened scrutiny over national security in recent years. Will this affect Chinese companies going overseas?\nClearly it’s very difficult for Chinese companies to invest in the United States. There is some evidence now that it’s difficult for Chinese companies to invest in Europe as well. But there are large swathes of the world where Chinese investment is very strong.\nThe whole of Southeast Asia, Latin America, increasingly the Middle East. There will be political barriers to Chinese investment in some places, but there will be plenty of opportunities for Chinese companies to invest elsewhere.\nIt’s important to remember that there’s been very little Chinese private sector investment in the rest of the world relative to the size of China’s economy. China is in the very early stages of its companies going out and figuring out how to operate in other environments.\nQuestions are still being asked over whether China can achieve its 5 per cent growth target this year, despite Beijing’s repeated pledges to do so. Why the expectation gap?\nWhat President Xi Jinping really wants is for China to become more technologically advanced. So the purpose of economic policy is to promote the creation of a technologically advanced economy.\nThe growth objective has been downgraded quite substantially from the past. If China grows by only 3 to 4 per cent on average for the next decade but continues to advance technologically at a rapid pace, that will be fine.\nOutside China, there’s a very strong tendency for people to go to extreme views. You say either China is going to take over the world tomorrow or is unsustainable and will all collapse. Both those views have been proven wrong.\nChina has done very well. It hasn’t taken over the world. And it still has a lot of problems and contradictions. There have been many predictions of collapse or crisis that have just not panned out over the years.\n\n\nIf you look at financial fragility, China has a lot of debt. There are a lot of problems in the financial sector, but it also has a national savings rate of over 40 per cent of GDP.\nThe amount of money that exists in the system to fund the financial sector is very large, and capital controls prevent that money from flowing out to the rest of the world.\nChina now is sometimes compared to Japan in the 1990s, but the basic problem is that China is a very different economy than Japan in 1990. In Japan, there was essentially a single national balance sheet – the financial system and the real economy were tied together.\nSo if you’re a bank and you own shares in Mitsubishi, then you care a lot about what Mitsubishi’s stock price is. Similarly, Mitsubishi cares a lot about what the bank’s stock price is. If all of the stock prices go down at once, both the financial sector and the real sector will be in trouble.\nThe other issue was that there was a lot of lending on land. Land prices, property prices were way more extravagant in Japan in 1990 than they have been recently in China. And as those asset prices fell, the combined balance sheet of “Japan, Inc.” took a huge hit.\nChina does not permit these kinds of cross-shareholdings between banks and companies. So when you look for heavily indebted entities, you can find many. But you can also find plenty of companies, particularly in the industrial sector, that are not particularly leveraged and are unaffected by debt problems that exist elsewhere in the economy.\nYou have a fragmented balance sheet, and you have asset prices that did not get as crazy as they did in Japan.\nThere is going to be a problem with the property sector for the rest of this decade. That’s going to be a big drag. Prices still have to fall quite a bit.\nThat’s going to be a big problem for a lot of the smaller banks in the Chinese system. It’s going to be a problem for local governments that rely on land sales for revenue.\nBut because it is fragmented, there are many other parts of the economy, in the industrial sector and services, that can keep growing relatively well.\nWe used to think of China as an economy that grew by 10 per cent a year, and then 7 per cent a year until recently. Now maybe it’s around 5 per cent. Those are real growth rates. But the really important thing is the slowdown in nominal growth, which has been much greater. If you look at nominal growth in the first decade of the 2000s, it was almost 20 per cent a year.\nToday, nominal growth is only about 4 per cent, less than the real growth rate, which is another way of saying that there’s a lot of deflationary pressure in the economy. Looking ahead over the next several years, China might be growing at 3 or 4 per cent in both real and nominal terms.\nChina can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary\n\nThe big difference is not about an economy that’s growing in real terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 5 per cent. It’s that the economy is growing in nominal terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 8 to 10 per cent.\nThe reduction in nominal growth is what matters for corporate profits.\nSo that’s where I would have a little bit of a problem with the Chinese way of framing – “Everything’s fine, we’re still going to grow by 5 per cent” – they’re growing at 5 per cent real, but there’s 1 per cent deflation.\nDeflation is not a pleasant thing. It creates a lot of problems. China can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary.\nSuspicions exist over China’s official data. Some point out the figures are sometimes inconsistent and overstated. What is your assessment of the issue?\nWe use the official data a lot because there isn’t that much else out there. So in some sectors – property or automobiles – you have some private sector data sources that are very useful. But for the most part, you have to rely on official data.\nIf you look at the quality of data in China and then look at the quality of data in India, on average the quality of the Indian data is a bit worse. No one talks about this. The reason is because India is a democratic open system and China is not.\nWhen people say we can’t trust the statistics, they’re not actually making a careful judgment about statistical quality. They are making a judgment about the nature of the political system. And what they’re saying is we don’t trust statements made by the government of China because it’s not democratic.\nIf the data makes sense over time and triangulates with other data, then it’s probably fine. If it doesn’t make sense, then you start to question it.\nFrankly, this is what analysts have to do with any data set, whether it’s China, India, the United States or the European Union. You never take the data at face value. You always ask yourself, “Does this data make sense compared to other things?” If it does, we’ll move on.\nIf it doesn’t, we need to investigate further. The reality is that we’re able to do a pretty good job of describing what’s going on in China by using the official data.\nAnd there’s some things where we just have to acknowledge the data is really bad and we can’t use it, so that limits our ability to make observations on certain topics.\n\n\n\u003c!--//--\u003e\u003c![CDATA[// \u003e\u003c!--\n\n!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--\u003e\u003c!]]\u003e\n\nWhat you have to do is do the hard work of looking at the data carefully, seeing what makes sense, using the stuff that has proved over time to be consistent and usable and throwing out the stuff that has proved consistently not usable. We do this every day in our work on the Chinese economy.\nThe final point here is if they were simply making up the numbers, telling false stories about the economy, eventually reality is going to catch up.\nGenerally speaking, the complaints that you hear about data quality are: I don’t really want to do the work of understanding what’s really going on here. I’m just going to reject the data and make up some story based on some cherry-picked evidence.\nI just don’t find that to be analytically very satisfactory, particularly in light of the fact that China has a very long track record of successful growth and is dealing with a wide range of problems.\nThere are tons and tons of data problems. Some of them are the result of political interference, that is without doubt. And the job of analysts is just to work through that and try to determine the noise.\nThe Pacific Ocean seems to create an information gap as well as one of physical distance. Some are reluctant to come to China and are losing confidence in the Chinese market, despite Beijing’s pledges to open further. Why does it seem the world’s two largest economies are losing touch with each other?\nFor essentially three years, China was locked away from the rest of the world. And they’ve been very slow to resume contact. There was a lot of damage done by the three years of Covid isolation. It exacerbated the mistrust between the United States and China.\nThe Chinese government for the last few years has been very clear that they want to tighten up security across a wide spectrum of things. They’ve been very systematic at increasing security controls of various kinds.\nThis means a crackdown on various kinds of information-gathering activities. And now the Chinese government wants to regulate them much more tightly.\nThe problem on the Chinese side is that security forces have been given very wide latitude to go after problems. They are not held accountable for the collateral damage in investor confidence.\nChina’s efforts to reassure people have not been very convincing, because if you look at the way the law and the way the regulations are written, there are severe penalties for various offences that are not clearly specified.\nSo people want to know what to do to comply. How can they be 100 per cent sure they can comply?\n\n\n\n\nA lot of it has to do with the greater security focus within China, which is reflective of an environment where many countries are doing the same thing.\nYou could see a similar thing in the United States, where there’s a lot more emphasis on security support. But the concern of foreign companies is that the Chinese system by its nature is less transparent and less predictable.\nWill hawkish voices in the US become stronger by using overcapacity to attack China? Is the American government politicising overcapacity?\nI have problems with the term “overcapacity”, because I don’t really know what it means. And it doesn’t really have a precise meaning. This is a somewhat politicised discussion.\nThese countries want to maintain a certain production structure. They want to have their own carmakers.\nAs a responsible economy, China should be working on both the supply and the demand side. You can’t just have a supply policy and no demand policy.\nThe Chinese argument is: “We have a very successful manufacturing economy. Why aren’t you happy that we’re making all of this stuff that’s cheaper?”\nSo now people can buy electric cars for US$10,000 or US$15,000 instead of a conventional vehicle at US$25,000 or US$30,000. This is a benefit for consumers.\nOn the Western side, they have this overcapacity thing, which is really a meaningless term. And they’re unwilling to acknowledge the fact that China does have a very effective competitive manufacturing system.\nIf you have unbalanced policies where you are massively increasing supply – so you have the ability to sell goods in other people’s markets – but you are doing very little to increase demand, you’re not making it easier for other people to sell in your market.\nPeople look at that and say that’s not fair. You want more access to our market and you’re not reciprocating by creating a vibrant domestic market.\nBoth sides need to rethink what’s the best way to come to an accommodation, because the risk that we have right now is that these tensions are growing so large that it is going to create a lot more friction in the global trading system.\nThere is a problem in this ‘high fence, small yard’ thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger\n\nYou can have a lot more protectionism, more tariffs, more controls on trade and investment. And if that happens, then everyone becomes poorer.\nDo you think the “high fence, small yard” strategy of the Biden administration will kill China’s technological development?\nNo. China has a very dynamic industrial ecosystem. There’s a lot of really competitive companies. It has a whole range of infrastructure to support it. The government is committed to funding basic research.\nI don’t think this will derail China’s technological development. There is a problem in this “high fence, small yard” thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger.\nAs successive [US] administrations come in, what they’re probably going to do is impose more controls on the definition. And at the end of the day, I don’t think that’s going to throw China off-course, but it is a constant strain on the relationship.\nSo the China-US relationship will become more adversarial.\nIs the US facing a dilemma of inflation, especially if Trump gets re-elected?\nIf Trump gets elected – certainly the policies that have been put out by Trump’s people would be highly inflationary. So all these tariffs, not just on imports from China, but on imports from everywhere in the world.\nTighter control on immigration would reduce labour supply, which will push up wages. Everything they say they will do would contribute to inflation.\nWill they actually do all those things? Trump is very good at reading the mood of the room. At some instinctive level, he might recognise that the inflationary policies he pursued between 2016 and 2020 are much less appropriate in today’s environment.\n\n\nNow, the US economy is clearly inflationary. And if you throw in more inflationary policies, you could have a big problem. Trump might be a sufficiently smart politician to recognise that’s dangerous.\nOn the broader China question, it’s very uncertain. If Trump is elected, there’s no question that the security side – the defence department, state department – will become more hawkish than under Biden, and will be inclined to be antagonistic towards China.\nThe final thing is that – if you look at the original Trump presidency, he had some very hawkish people on China. But at the treasury department, in particular, he had people who were trying to be very nuanced and have a constructive relationship with China.\nSo it’s quite possible that we’ll have a similar dynamic in the second Trump term. There are different people in different parts of the administration that have different views.\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"em","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Arthur Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research firm. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, Kroeber worked for 15 years as a financial journalist and economic analyst. He is an adjunct professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, was published in 2020."}]},{"type":"text","data":" "},{"type":"em","children":[{"type":"text","data":"For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click"}]},{"type":"text","data":" "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/series/3256715/open-questions?campaign=Open_Questions\u0026module=series_LHS_header\u0026pgtype=article?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"ee4ad8a6-d7d4-4728-8c7f-e23d6b91aab9","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"em","children":[{"type":"text","data":"here"}]}]},{"type":"em","children":[{"type":"text","data":"."}]}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You have suggested that Beijing should roll out economic reforms to achieve sustainable economic growth. What specific reforms? What is your assessment of the sweeping reforms unveiled at the 18th Central Committee’s third plenum in 2013? What should we expect from the coming session?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Using the word “reform” to talk about what’s going on in China is not all that helpful. The reason is when people outside China, particularly from the United States or Europe, they specifically mean reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy and increase the role of markets in the private sector. China really is not doing very much of that."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In my opinion they should be doing a lot more to reform the financial and fiscal systems and improve market regulation, to enable core dynamism and private-sector activity, and boost productivity across the board."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"But when the Chinese leadership talks about reform, they mean something different. They believe they are doing a lot of reform in the sense of changing forms of organisation, regulatory systems, and the way that capital flows around the economy with the objective of sustaining economic growth and accelerating the pace of technological change."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Now, if you go back to the 2013 third plenum document, one major point was that the market would "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1354411/chinas-leadership-approves-key-reform-package-close-third-plenum","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"5efad5f6-d1a7-4123-bfec-b825192c6315","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"play a decisive role"}]},{"type":"text","data":" in resource allocation. This implied a mandate for more market reforms."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Then almost immediately after that, it says the state will continue to have a dominant or leading role in the economy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This reflected the fact that the document was somewhat political, it was trying to placate a wide range of different constituencies within the government – the pro-market people and the pro-state people."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It also reflects a pretty fundamental perspective that has been true throughout Chinese economic history of the last 40 or 50 years, that they do see a large role for markets but also a very large role for the state."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"They are not aiming for an American-style or European-style system. They are aiming for a system which has a lot of market forces in it and a lot of private enterprises, but also has a much larger role for the state in terms of overall direction and coordination."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The case for the advocates of a bigger state role grew in 2015, when there was a big stock market crash. There were a lot of capital outflows, and it took them quite a while to stabilise the financial situation of the country."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"They had to impose a lot of regulations in the stock market. They had to impose capital controls. That whole episode made the senior leadership think, “What can we do if we go too far with this market stuff? It will just become destabilising.”"}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/p-GXddexU6Y?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"China’s third plenum: what to expect from the much-delayed policy meeting","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/07/05/CLEAN_third-plenum_3.jpg?itok=5k7cLtou","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/07/05/CLEAN_third-plenum_3.jpg?itok=blAX4_km","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/07/05/CLEAN_third-plenum_3.jpg","data-duration":"09:12","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3269328","data-youtube-id":"p-GXddexU6Y"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"And then you look at the internet companies, they got very big, very powerful and arguably not very accountable. So the government decided they weren’t regulating things tightly enough."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"5"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Basically all of the policies of the last five or six years have focused on increasing regulation in the financial sector and the internet sector; and most recently in the property sector. All of these areas were seen as areas of risk that were created by uncontrolled marketisation."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So now the view of the government is we have maintained this anti risk policy, but then we also need to promote new sources of growth, particularly since they’ve had this big crackdown on the property sector, which accounts for about one-fourth of the economy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You need another growth engine. The idea of new productive forces is basically to mobilise huge technological investments to drive productivity growth in the future."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6","infiniteAdsAfterNumber":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"What we’re likely to see in the third plenum is a restatement and elaboration of this sort of general industrial policy-led growth model, maybe a little bit more colour on exactly how they expect this to work."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s trade with the US and the EU have dropped. Is China able to reverse the trend, or is it inevitable that Beijing will have to focus on the developing world?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You don’t want to look at China’s share of total global exports. You want to look at their share of manufactured exports. That’s been quite stable at around a little over 20 per cent for the last several years."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There does not seem to be any indication that it is significantly shrinking. China is so far doing a pretty good job of retaining its competitiveness and maintaining a fairly stable share of global trade and manufacturing."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It is sometimes misleading to look at the headline value of exports. So for example, if you look at the headline numbers, Chinese exports to the United States have taken a big hit."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It used to be that China accounted for about 22 per cent of goods imported to the US, and that’s now down to 14 per cent. So you would say China is losing a lot of market share in the United States. The problem with that is, a lot of that reduction in value is not real."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So for example, you’re a Chinese maker of solar panels. You can’t send your stuff directly to the United States "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3263681/chinas-solar-panel-industry-seeks-curb-vicious-competition-mas-and-easy-exits-control-capacity-eu-us","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"2503441b-3bf7-40c4-96e9-fd2286d65c8b","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"because of tariffs"}]},{"type":"text","data":". You set up a factory in Vietnam and Malaysia and you send it there, the value of that product is still overwhelmingly as a Chinese-made product."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If today I’m exporting 100 solar panels from China to the US and then tomorrow I’m exporting zero solar panels from China to the US, but 100 from Vietnam to the US, that would show up as a reduction in China’s export share to the US, but in reality the trade was just diverted through a third country."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"It’s going to be very difficult to fully decouple the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So Apple has started to move some of its cellphone production out of China. But if you look at those iPhones, where are the components coming from?"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In many cases, they’re coming from China, and going to India or Vietnam just for the final assembly. Again, the ability of Chinese producers to sell stuff into the American market is much larger than is shown by headline trade data."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China will continue – for quite a few years – to have a very robust position in global manufactured trade, including in the developed markets."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It’s going to be very difficult to "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3268878/china-risk-wider-decoupling-after-us-eu-asean-trade-partners-balk-imports-flood","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"b033f825-a938-4cab-a3e4-e1a704ba1df8","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"fully decouple"}]},{"type":"text","data":" the developed country markets from China, because China is just too important in too many supply chains."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It looks like China is facing challenges in global supply chain realignment. People are saying China’s status in the global supply chain is hard to replace, but what about the prospects over the long run? Who will be the “next China”, India or Vietnam?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The short answer is that there is no “next China”. There’s no one else."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"In China, as they have moved up the value chain and started to be much more successful in machinery, they are still very competitive in these traditional sectors."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"They are broadly competitive across low-value sectors and high-value sectors. They have such an enormous labour pool and such effective infrastructure that they are able to be competitive across a wide range of goods."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Supply chains are very sticky. China has a tonne of comparative advantages in terms of size, the productivity of its workforce, the quality of its infrastructure and the industrial ecosystem it has created in many sectors."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If you look at the candidates for who could replace China, they all have problems. India has a big workforce. But it is not as well-educated as China."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Female labour force participation is very low. That’s a big problem, because if you look at a lot of industrial history in East Asia, the female workforce has been a very important part of building up manufacturing systems. Quality of infrastructure is extremely poor."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You look at a country like Vietnam, which in many ways has similar endowments in China in terms of high-quality workforce, and a communist party-led government that is very development-focused. They have a lot of pro-growth policies. But they don’t have the scale."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"scmp-code-block methode-html-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"type":"iframe","attribs":{"title":"China's monthly exports","aria-label":"Interactive line chart","id":"datawrapper-chart-zY5Xs","src":"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/zY5Xs/12/","scrolling":"no","frameborder":"0","style":"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;","height":"508","data-external":"1","name":"datawrapper-chart-zY5Xs"},"children":[]},{"type":"script","attribs":{"type":"text/javascript"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n\u003c!--//--\u003e\u003c![CDATA[// \u003e\u003c!--\n\n!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--\u003e\u003c!]]\u003e\n"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There are many countries that can replicate some part of the Chinese system, but there’s no one who is even close to being able to do the whole set of things."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China has been robustly developing its artificial intelligence (AI). Do you think China will succeed in levelling up its technology and advanced manufacturing?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The constraint obviously is the "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3238354/tech-war-us-ban-tailor-made-nvidia-and-intel-chips-hits-beijings-ai-ambitions?module=inline\u0026pgtype=article","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"b5c06362-64e1-4d0a-80da-9c169e4643bf","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"advanced chip controls"}]},{"type":"text","data":" that have been placed on China by the United States. So for instance, some of the more advanced AI applications require much more high-powered chips."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The real question about the pace of Chinese AI development is how quickly China will be able to come up with adequate substitutes for the high-powered AI chips that they can no longer source from the United States. Most people think that’s going to be a period of several years, at least, for them to be able to fully replicate those capabilities they’re now being deprived of."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"On one hand, China is facing an ageing population. On the other hand, China is putting resources into robotics and automation. Do you think robots will replace manual labour one day? To what extent can it replace the human labour force?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This is a good moment to talk about the Chinese government’s overarching policy framework, which they call “new productive forces”. It’s now been incorporated in a lot of the top-level economic planning, documents and policies."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It’s a new formulation of a comprehensive, technologically driven development strategy which Xi Jinping has been pushing forward for a decade. And part of what they’re talking about is figuring out ways to use industrial automation, whether it’s robots, AI, or some other kind of technology to improve the productivity of existing manufacturing."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Part of that also is replacing factory floor labour, because of "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3257727/china-doubles-subsidies-child-elderly-care-facilities-deal-demographic-decline","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"7090966f-dc9c-43d6-85ce-9b46d9ab1d0f","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"the demographic changes"}]},{"type":"text","data":". It’s very clear that policymakers in China understand there’s a problem here that they need to deal with."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"What will China do to maintain its status in the supply chain? Is China still investible over the long run?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Fundamentally, the Chinese leadership has been very clear that maintaining a large industrial economy is the goal. They don’t accept the idea that China should just become a pure services and consumer-driven economy."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The basic thing that they are doing is making sure all kinds of sectors stay in China. They have a lot of tools to work with – creating favourable financing conditions for industrial companies, incentive programmes for technological development, and continued investments in infrastructure."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"China is still a non-optional market … It’s still a big source of incremental growth"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This is not necessarily good for financial investors who are just looking at corporate profits of domestic companies in highly competitive sectors. But for corporate investors who invest in physical production or services in China, it’s a very different story."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China is still a non-optional market for many international companies. It is very large. It’s still a big source of incremental growth. If you look at this whole debate about electric vehicles (EVs), the companies that are most opposed to putting tariffs on Chinese EV imports are the German carmakers."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"These are the guys who are going to be most affected by cheap Chinese EVs. Why aren’t they in favour of tariffs? They want to maintain their market access in China. And they’re afraid that if these tariffs get approved, then the retaliation will be government policies that restrict their ability to operate within China."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"We’ve seen heightened geopolitical tensions, ideological confrontation and tightened scrutiny over national security in recent years. Will this affect Chinese companies going overseas?"}]}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Clearly it’s very difficult for Chinese companies to invest in the United States. There is some evidence now that it’s difficult for Chinese companies to invest in Europe as well. But there are "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3250695/china-has-made-mexico-premier-investment-destination-it-us-detour-or-something-more","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"cc8b9a1f-b899-4090-bdd2-f71311f69221","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"large swathes of the world"}]},{"type":"text","data":" where Chinese investment is very strong."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The whole of Southeast Asia, Latin America, increasingly the Middle East. There will be political barriers to Chinese investment in some places, but there will be plenty of opportunities for Chinese companies to invest elsewhere."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"It’s important to remember that there’s been very little Chinese private sector investment in the rest of the world relative to the size of China’s economy. China is in the very early stages of its companies going out and figuring out how to operate in other environments."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Questions are still being asked over whether China can achieve its 5 per cent growth target this year, despite Beijing’s repeated pledges to do so. Why the expectation gap?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"What President Xi Jinping really wants is for China to become more technologically advanced. So the purpose of economic policy is to promote the creation of a technologically advanced economy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The growth objective has been downgraded quite substantially from the past. If China grows by only 3 to 4 per cent on average for the next decade but continues to advance technologically at a rapid pace, that will be fine."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Outside China, there’s a very strong tendency for people to go to extreme views. You say either China is going to take over the world tomorrow or is unsustainable and will all collapse. Both those views have been proven wrong."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China has done very well. It hasn’t taken over the world. And it still has a lot of problems and contradictions. There have been many predictions of collapse or crisis that have just not panned out over the years."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/w5GqsoH1U-g?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"From economic ‘miracle’ to cautionary tale: Japan’s development and recession","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/02/20/CLEAN-T.jpg?itok=4j2gxSQc","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/02/20/CLEAN-T.jpg?itok=NaiBz21-","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/02/20/CLEAN-T.jpg","data-duration":"07:43","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3252578","data-youtube-id":"w5GqsoH1U-g"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If you look at financial fragility, China has a lot of debt. There are a lot of problems in the financial sector, but it also has a national savings rate of over 40 per cent of GDP."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"50"}},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The amount of money that exists in the system to fund the financial sector is very large, and capital controls prevent that money from flowing out to the rest of the world."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China now is "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3268499/chinese-companies-going-global-should-learn-japans-mistakes-academic-says","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"790dded5-0c79-4908-9e92-b05a6f8837da","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"sometimes compared to Japan"}]},{"type":"text","data":" in the 1990s, but the basic problem is that China is a very different economy than Japan in 1990. In Japan, there was essentially a single national balance sheet – the financial system and the real economy were tied together."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So if you’re a bank and you own shares in Mitsubishi, then you care a lot about what Mitsubishi’s stock price is. Similarly, Mitsubishi cares a lot about what the bank’s stock price is. If all of the stock prices go down at once, both the financial sector and the real sector will be in trouble."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The other issue was that there was a lot of lending on land. Land prices, property prices were way more extravagant in Japan in 1990 than they have been recently in China. And as those asset prices fell, the combined balance sheet of “Japan, Inc.” took a huge hit."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China does not permit these kinds of cross-shareholdings between banks and companies. So when you look for heavily indebted entities, you can find many. But you can also find plenty of companies, particularly in the industrial sector, that are not particularly leveraged and are unaffected by debt problems that exist elsewhere in the economy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You have a fragmented balance sheet, and you have asset prices that did not get as crazy as they did in Japan."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There is going to be a problem with the property sector for the rest of this decade. That’s going to be a big drag. Prices still have to fall quite a bit."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"That’s going to be a big problem for a lot of the smaller banks in the Chinese system. It’s going to be a problem for local governments that "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3263385/will-chinas-fleet-policies-buoy-housing-sales-stem-slack-tides-property-market","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"9d11da92-a435-485a-863c-6d2d7e9b15ab","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"rely on land sales"}]},{"type":"text","data":" for revenue."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"But because it is fragmented, there are many other parts of the economy, in the industrial sector and services, that can keep growing relatively well."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"We used to think of China as an economy that grew by 10 per cent a year, and then 7 per cent a year until recently. Now maybe it’s around 5 per cent. Those are real growth rates. But the really important thing is the slowdown in nominal growth, which has been much greater. If you look at nominal growth in the first decade of the 2000s, it was almost 20 per cent a year."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Today, nominal growth is only about 4 per cent, less than the real growth rate, which is another way of saying that there’s a lot of deflationary pressure in the economy. Looking ahead over the next several years, China might be growing at 3 or 4 per cent in both real and nominal terms."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"China can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The big difference is not about an economy that’s growing in real terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 5 per cent. It’s that the economy is growing in nominal terms at 3 to 4 per cent instead of 8 to 10 per cent."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The reduction in nominal growth is what matters for corporate profits."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So that’s where I would have a little bit of a problem with the Chinese way of framing – “Everything’s fine, we’re still going to grow by 5 per cent” – they’re growing at 5 per cent real, but there’s 1 per cent deflation."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Deflation is not a pleasant thing. It creates a lot of problems. China can keep growing, it will keep growing. But it will be slower and more deflationary."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Suspicions exist over China’s official data. Some point out the figures are sometimes inconsistent and overstated. What is your assessment of the issue?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"We use the official data a lot because there isn’t that much else out there. So in some sectors – property or automobiles – you have some private sector data sources that are very useful. But for the most part, you have to rely on official data."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If you look at the quality of data in China and then look at the quality of data in India, on average the quality of the Indian data is a bit worse. No one talks about this. The reason is because India is a democratic open system and China is not."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"When people say we can’t trust the statistics, they’re not actually making a careful judgment about statistical quality. They are making a judgment about the nature of the political system. And what they’re saying is we don’t trust statements made by the government of China because it’s not democratic."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If the data makes sense over time and triangulates with other data, then it’s probably fine. If it doesn’t make sense, then you start to question it."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Frankly, this is what analysts have to do with any data set, whether it’s China, India, the United States or the European Union. You never take the data at face value. You always ask yourself, “Does this data make sense compared to other things?” If it does, we’ll move on."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If it doesn’t, we need to investigate further. The reality is that we’re able to do a pretty good job of describing what’s going on in China by using the official data."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"And there’s some things where we just have to acknowledge the data is really bad and we can’t use it, so that limits our ability to make observations on certain topics."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"scmp-code-block methode-html-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"type":"iframe","attribs":{"title":"China's factory gate inflation","aria-label":"Interactive line chart","id":"datawrapper-chart-u4l27","src":"https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/u4l27/27/","scrolling":"no","frameborder":"0","style":"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;","height":"469","data-external":"1","name":"datawrapper-chart-u4l27"},"children":[]},{"type":"script","attribs":{"type":"text/javascript"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n\u003c!--//--\u003e\u003c![CDATA[// \u003e\u003c!--\n\n!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r\u003ce.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n\n//--\u003e\u003c!]]\u003e\n"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"What you have to do is do the hard work of looking at the data carefully, seeing what makes sense, using the stuff that has proved over time to be consistent and usable and throwing out the stuff that has proved consistently not usable. We do this every day in our work on the Chinese economy."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The final point here is if they were simply making up the numbers, telling false stories about the economy, eventually reality is going to catch up."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Generally speaking, the complaints that you hear about data quality are: I don’t really want to do the work of understanding what’s really going on here. I’m just going to reject the data and make up some story based on some cherry-picked evidence."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"I just don’t find that to be analytically very satisfactory, particularly in light of the fact that China has a very long track record of successful growth and is dealing with a wide range of problems."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"There are tons and tons of data problems. Some of them are the result of political interference, that is without doubt. And the job of analysts is just to work through that and try to determine the noise."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The Pacific Ocean seems to create an information gap as well as one of physical distance. Some are reluctant to come to China and are losing confidence in the Chinese market, despite Beijing’s pledges to open further. Why does it seem the world’s two largest economies are losing touch with each other?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"For essentially three years, China was locked away from the rest of the world. And they’ve been very slow to resume contact. There was a lot of damage done by the three years of Covid isolation. It exacerbated the mistrust between the United States and China."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The Chinese government for the last few years has been very clear that they want to tighten up security across a wide spectrum of things. They’ve been very systematic at increasing security controls of various kinds."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"This means a crackdown on various kinds of information-gathering activities. And now the Chinese government wants to regulate them much more tightly."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The problem on the Chinese side is that security forces have been given "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3238712/worried-and-fearful-chinas-move-amend-state-secrets-law-fuels-concern-among-businesses","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"523b0d80-908f-426b-9aab-029ec9dc6564","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"very wide latitude"}]},{"type":"text","data":" to go after problems. They are not held accountable for the collateral damage in investor confidence."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s efforts to reassure people have not been very convincing, because if you look at the way the law and the way the regulations are written, there are severe penalties for various offences that are not clearly specified."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So people want to know what to do to comply. How can they be 100 per cent sure they can comply?"}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"scmp-multimedia-embed"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"type":"iframe","attribs":{"width":"100%","height":"392px","src":"https://multimedia.scmp.com/2019/graphics/launchers/20230130.html","scrolling":"no","frameborder":"0"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"text","data":"\n"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"A lot of it has to do with the greater security focus within China, which is reflective of an environment where many countries are doing the same thing."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You could see a similar thing in the United States, where there’s a lot more emphasis on security support. But the concern of foreign companies is that the Chinese system by its nature is less transparent and less predictable."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Will hawkish voices in the US become stronger by using overcapacity to attack China? Is the American government politicising overcapacity?"}]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"I have problems with the term “overcapacity”, because I don’t really know what it means. And it doesn’t really have a precise meaning. This is a somewhat politicised discussion."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"These countries want to maintain a certain production structure. They want to have their own carmakers."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As a responsible economy, China should be working on both the supply and the demand side. You can’t just have a supply policy and no demand policy."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The Chinese argument is: “We have a very successful manufacturing economy. Why aren’t you happy that we’re making all of this stuff that’s cheaper?”"}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So now people can buy electric cars for US$10,000 or US$15,000 instead of a conventional vehicle at US$25,000 or US$30,000. This is a benefit for consumers."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"On the Western side, they have this overcapacity thing, which is really a meaningless term. And they’re "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3262505/how-chinas-ev-overcapacity-has-come-head-after-15-years-and-whats-store-industrial-policy-race-us","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"75d7f5ce-9b75-43bb-8c02-9127410b0f59","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"unwilling to acknowledge"}]},{"type":"text","data":" the fact that China does have a very effective competitive manufacturing system."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If you have unbalanced policies where you are massively increasing supply – so you have the ability to sell goods in other people’s markets – but you are doing very little to increase demand, you’re not making it easier for other people to sell in your market."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"People look at that and say that’s not fair. You want more access to our market and you’re not reciprocating by creating a vibrant domestic market."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Both sides need to rethink what’s the best way to come to an accommodation, because the risk that we have right now is that these tensions are growing so large that it is going to create a lot more friction in the global trading system."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"There is a problem in this ‘high fence, small yard’ thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"You can have a lot more protectionism, more tariffs, more controls on trade and investment. And if that happens, then everyone becomes poorer."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Do you think the"}]},{"type":"text","data":" "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3247294/china-steps-efforts-adapt-us-led-reshoring-campaign-seems-set-stone","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"ee008e63-1973-46e4-b0ce-7ce0f79176bd","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“high fence, small yard” strategy"}]}]},{"type":"text","data":" "},{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"of the Biden administration will kill China’s technological development?"}]}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"90"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"No. China has a very dynamic industrial ecosystem. There’s a lot of really competitive companies. It has a whole range of infrastructure to support it. The government is committed to funding basic research."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"I don’t think this will derail China’s technological development. There is a problem in this “high fence, small yard” thing – the yard keeps getting bigger and bigger."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"As successive [US] administrations come in, what they’re probably going to do is impose more controls on the definition. And at the end of the day, I don’t think that’s going to throw China off-course, but it is a constant strain on the relationship."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So the China-US relationship will become more adversarial."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"strong","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Is the US facing a dilemma of inflation, especially if Trump gets re-elected?"}]}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"If Trump gets elected – certainly the policies that have been put out by Trump’s people would be highly inflationary. So all these tariffs, not just on "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3250911/trump-would-impose-tariffs-china-again-if-re-elected-november-we-have-do-it","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"c829e846-05b0-4d13-8424-11068e5cdc9a","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"imports from China"}]},{"type":"text","data":", but on imports from everywhere in the world."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Tighter control on immigration would reduce labour supply, which will push up wages. Everything they say they will do would contribute to inflation."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Will they actually do all those things? Trump is very good at reading the mood of the room. At some instinctive level, he might recognise that the inflationary policies he pursued between 2016 and 2020 are much less appropriate in today’s environment."}]},{"type":"div","attribs":{"class":"methode-html-wrapper oembed-wrapper"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"\n"},{"subtype":"youtube","type":"iframe","attribs":{"allowfullscreen":"true","allowscriptaccess":"always","allow":"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture","class":"c1","frameborder":"0","width":"560","height":"315","scrolling":"no","src":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/6pfYoV8HoZ0?wmode=transparent\u0026jqoemcache=UdCOW\u0026enablejsapi=1\u0026playsinline=1","title":"US proposes new round of tariffs on China in latest trade war escalation","data-poster-sm":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/05/15/CLEAN---thumbnail.jpg?itok=Z-vg6egf","data-poster-lg":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/05/15/CLEAN---thumbnail.jpg?itok=wRKsBzom","data-poster":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/video/thumbnail/2024/05/15/CLEAN---thumbnail.jpg","data-duration":"01:52","data-video-source":"SCMP","data-nid":"3262767","data-youtube-id":"6pfYoV8HoZ0"},"children":[]}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Now, the US economy is clearly inflationary. And if you throw in more inflationary policies, you could have a big problem. Trump might be a sufficiently smart politician to recognise that’s dangerous."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"6"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"On the broader China question, it’s very uncertain. If Trump is elected, there’s no question that the security side – the defence department, state department – will become more hawkish than under Biden, and will be inclined to be antagonistic towards China."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The final thing is that – if you look at the original Trump presidency, he had some very hawkish people on China. But at the treasury department, in particular, he had people who were trying to be very nuanced and have a constructive relationship with China."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"So it’s quite possible that we’ll have a similar dynamic in the second Trump term. 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