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US election could shape China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package: analysts | South China Morning Post
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type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","item":{"@id":"https://www.scmp.com/economy","name":"Economy"},"position":1},{"@type":"ListItem","item":{"@id":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy","name":"Policy"},"position":2}]}</script><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@id":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3285148/us-election-could-shape-chinas-long-awaited-fiscal-stimulus-package-analysts","@type":"WebPage"}</script><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":["NewsArticle","ReportageNewsArticle"],"alternativeHeadline":"China’s fiscal stimulus plan could expand by 20% if Trump wins, experts predict","articleBody":"The outcome of Tuesday’s US presidential election is expected to shape the scale of China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package, with a victory for former president Donald Trump likely to prompt greater spending to offset the impact of any potential tariffs, analysts said.\nThe estimates suggest the scale of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10 to 20 per cent bigger under a victory for Republican nominee Trump compared to Vice-President and Democratic rival Kamala Harris.\nAnd the scheduling of a five-day meeting of China’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, to overlap closely with the US election reflects the importance of external factors on domestic policies, highlighting the impact of external shocks on the economy and sentiment, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).\n“The NPC is likely to determine the scale of fiscal stimulus based on the US election outcome. If Trump comes to power, the government may signal more aggressive stimulus to offset market concerns about China,” Su said.\nThe EIU expects about 6 trillion yuan (US$844 billion) in special sovereign bonds for debt swaps and large bank recapitalisation, and 4 trillion yuan in special local government bonds for the acquisition of idle land and unsold housing inventory, primarily aimed at easing liquidity issues for developers.\n“If Trump is elected, the stimulus is likely to exceed this scale, or the NPC will issue a more proactive commitment,” Su added.\nWe believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package\nNomura economists\nNomura economists Lu Ting, Wang Jing and Harrington Zhang expect the stimulus package could range from 2 to 3 per cent of gross domestic product annually over the next several years, with a Trump victory likely pushing it toward 3 per cent.\n“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package, though its impact should be quite limited, as the major challenges for Beijing emanate from within rather than outside,” they said.\nLawmakers began the meeting on Monday in Beijing, with a potential stimulus package expected to be among the key issues discussed.\nAnalysts broadly expect lawmakers to approve an injection of around 1 trillion yuan into banks via special sovereign bonds, alongside a government bond issuance for debt swaps over the next few years, with a range estimated of between 6 trillion yuan and 10 trillion yuan.\nDuring his campaign, Trump threatened a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, while Harris has not signalled a divergence from the tech restrictions implemented under the Biden administration.\nExports have remained a crucial driver for the world’s second-largest economy, which is still grappling with shrinking domestic demand, with the US still one of the top destinations for Chinese shipments.\n\n\n“If higher tariffs materialise, policymakers appear willing to launch more stimulus to offset any growth drags,” economists at investment bank Goldman Sachs said at the end of October.\nThe report said Trump was expected to “quickly move to raise tariffs on imports from China,” while adding his proposed 60 per cent rate was plausible on certain strategic imports, and that tariffs on Chinese consumer products would increase by less.\n“[This may result] in an average tariff hike on imports from China of around 20 percentage points – less than proposed but still more than double the rise during the 2018-19 trade war,” the report added.\nIt pointed out an estimated drag of 0.65 percentage points on China’s cumulative GDP by the trade war amid lower exports, increased uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.\nA 60 per cent tariff, they added, would impact real GDP by around 2 percentage points.\nThe final size may be bigger in Trump’s victory, but it may only come slowly\nGary Ng, Natixis\nAdditional countermeasures from Beijing could include allowing the yuan to depreciate, cutting US imports, imposing retaliatory tariffs and restricting exports of critical materials, including rare earths to the US, the report said.\nCustoms data showed the US was China’s top market in September, with shipments up by 2.16 per cent year on year, surpassing exports to the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.\n“While China has remained ambiguous about the actual fiscal stimulus, I doubt whether it would step up the size massively at this stage regardless of the US election outcome,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis.\nHe added Beijing would continue to back the economy to meet its growth target of “around 5 per cent”, but the package would be more of a “painkiller”.\n“The final size may be bigger in Trump’s victory, but it may only come slowly,” Ng said.\n","articleSection":"Policy","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Sylvia Ma","sameAs":"https://www.scmp.com/author/sylvia-ma"},"dateCreated":"2024-11-04T18:35:49+08:00","dateModified":"2024-11-05T11:46:40+08:00","datePublished":"2024-11-05T09:00:24+08:00","description":"The outcome of Tuesday’s US presidential election is expected to shape the scale of China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package, with a victory for former president Donald Trump likely to prompt greater spending to offset the impact of any potential tariffs, analysts said.","genre":"Economy","hasPart":{"@type":"WebPageElement","cssSelector":".piano-metering__paywall-container","isAccessibleForFree":"False"},"headline":"US election could shape China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package: 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data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor">China’s economic stimulus</a></div><div class=" er6t7fe20 css-1xdhyk6 e1047c925" data-qa="ArticleSections-SectionContainer"><a target="_self" class="e1047c923 css-1b6i0hn e1llv60l0" href="/economy?module=breadcrumb&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span>Economy</span><span data-qa="ArticleSections-render-SectionTagsSpacer" class="css-176a798 e1047c920"></span></a><a target="_self" class="e1047c923 css-1b6i0hn e1llv60l0" href="/economy/policy?module=breadcrumb&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span>Policy</span></a></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Headline" class="css-hdf8vf ea45u6l21"><h1 class="er6t7fe5 css-1u8qly9 e298i0d3" data-qa="ContentHeadline-ContainerWithTag"><span data-qa="ContentHeadline-Headline" class="css-0 e298i0d2">US election could shape China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package: analysts</span></h1></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-SubHeadline" 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e1llv60l0" href="/author/ji-siqi" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor">Ji Siqi</a><span data-qa="AuthorNames-renderLocations-AuthorLocation" class="css-1sn2av9 eybiz6w0">in <!-- -->Beijing</span></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PublishDateTime" class="css-mbzp8v ea45u6l14"><div class=" er6t7fe27 css-1qbx4v2 efakuk42" data-qa="Article20Date-Container"><time dateTime="2024-11-05T01:00:24.000Z" data-qa="Article20Date-PublishedDate" class="css-0 efakuk41">Published: <!-- -->9:00am, 5 Nov 2024</time><time dateTime="2024-11-05T03:46:40.000Z" data-qa="Article20Date-UpdatedDate" class="css-m6ip7c efakuk40">Updated: <!-- -->11:46am, 5 Nov 2024</time></div></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Correction" class="css-1ou8zht ea45u6l11"></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-Content" class="css-1u2o0u6 ea45u6l10"><section class="er6t7fe37 css-19sk4h4 e1pqt1t0" data-qa="ContentBody-ContentBodyContainer"><div class="js-reading-0-percent-completion-tracker css-19icq8a ekyy9du0" data-qa="useTrackViewedPercentageRender-trackViewedPercentageRenders-TrackPercentageBlock"></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">The outcome of Tuesday’s US presidential election is expected to shape the scale of China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package, with a victory for former president Donald Trump likely to prompt greater spending to offset the impact of any potential tariffs, analysts said.</p><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-y2bwcc e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">The estimates suggest the scale of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10 to 20 per cent bigger under a victory for Republican nominee Trump compared to Vice-President and Democratic rival Kamala Harris.</p><div datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1xdhyk6 ec74h0k0">And the scheduling of a <a target="_self" class="e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb e1llv60l0" href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3284808/chinas-top-lawmakers-gather-whats-store-economy?module=top_story&pgtype=section?module=inline&pgtype=article" data-qa="BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor"><span data-qa="Component-Text" class="css-0 ef9u0v00">five-day meeting of China’s top legislative body,</span></a> the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, to overlap closely with the US election reflects the importance of external factors on domestic policies, highlighting the impact of external shocks on the economy and sentiment, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).</div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">“The NPC is likely to determine the scale of fiscal stimulus based on the US election outcome. If Trump comes to power, the government may signal more aggressive stimulus to offset market concerns about China,” Su said.</p><div class="js-reading-20-percent-completion-tracker css-19icq8a ekyy9du0" data-qa="useTrackViewedPercentageRender-trackViewedPercentageRenders-TrackPercentageBlock"></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">The EIU expects about 6 trillion yuan (US$844 billion) in special sovereign bonds for debt swaps and large bank recapitalisation, and 4 trillion yuan in special local government bonds for the acquisition of idle land and unsold housing inventory, primarily aimed at easing liquidity issues for developers.</p><div data-qa="InlineAdSlot-Container" class=" css-zl1inp e11v3ui14"><div class="e11v3ui10 e11v3ui13 css-gy323d e1flwkbl0" data-qa="AdSlot-Container"><div data-qa="AdSlot-Label" class="css-1t8iakn e1flwkbl3">Advertisement</div><div data-qa="AdSlot-AdSlotContainer" class="css-0 e1flwkbl2"></div></div></div><p datatype="p" data-qa="Component-Component" class="e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1">“If Trump is elected, the stimulus is likely to exceed this scale, or the NPC will issue a more proactive commitment,” Su added.</p></section></div><div data-qa="GenericArticle-PaywallContainer" class="css-1kfpym9 ea45u6l1"><div class="er6t7fe22 piano-metering__paywall-container css-1e938sv e1x97qwg1" data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-Container"><div data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-LoadingContainer" class="css-hu4lls e1x97qwg2"><div class="css-1px2vm1 e1hb2u5e0" data-qa="Loading-CenteredContainer"><img aria-label="loading" data-qa="BaseImage-handleRenderImage-StyledImage" loading="eager" src="https://assets-v2.i-scmp.com/production/_next/static/media/wheel-on-gray.af4a55f9.gif" class="css-o105sx e445x7d0"/></div></div><div class="article-view__piano-metering css-16o2qwc e1x97qwg0" data-qa="ArticlePaywallContainer-Wrapper"></div></div></div><div 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styleMoreOnThisArticles: moreOnThisArticles {\n ...entityLink\n ...magazinesStyleArticleMoreOnThisContentItemContent\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreStoriesArticle on Article {\n moreOnThisArticles {\n entityId\n ...articleMoreStoriesItemArticle\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleMoreStoriesItemArticle on Article {\n ...entityLink\n headline\n socialHeadline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n url\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articlePaginationCheckerArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment articlePaginationNavigationHistoryArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment articlePaywallCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n}\n\nfragment articlePaywallContainerArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment articlePrintArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment articlePrintHeadlineMessageArticle on Article {\n printHeadline\n}\n\nfragment articleReactionArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sections {\n value {\n name\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleReadingTimeContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n readingTime\n}\n\nfragment articleRecommendationArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n entityId\n moreOnThisArticles {\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n entityId\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleRenderArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleActionWidgetArticle\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticleContent\n ...articleAuthorBlockArticle\n ...articleAuthorDetailsContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...articleBeforeYouGoTopicsContent\n ...articleBeforeYouGoWidget\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleCorrectionsWidgetArticle\n ...articleDateContent\n ...articleFurtherReadingWidgetArticle\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...articleLeadingArticle\n ...articleMoreOnThisListArticle\n ...articlePaywallContainerArticle\n ...articlePrintHeadlineMessageArticle\n ...articleReactionArticle\n ...articleReadingTimeContent\n ...articleSectionsContent\n ...articleSeriesArticle\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n ...articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...articleTopicContent\n ...articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle\n ...articleTopicsContent\n ...articleTopicWidgetArticle\n ...articleVocabBoxArticle\n ...authorAvatarsArticle\n ...authorNamesArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentLiveTagContent\n ...contentReadMoreButtonContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n ...contentSubHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...genericArticleContent\n ...postMagazineArticleContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4\n ...infographicArticleArticle\n ...liveArticleArticle\n ...morningStudioArticleContent\n ...newsletterArticleArticle\n ...pianoIntegrationArticle\n ...plusColumnsArticleContent\n ...plusGenericArticleContent\n ...seriesArticleArticle\n ...styleArticleContent\n ...contentActionBarContent\n}\n\nfragment articleSchemaContent_mN6kk on Query {\n article(filter: {entityId: $entityId}) {\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n authorLocations\n contentLock\n createdDate\n headline\n publishedDate\n socialHeadline\n sponsorType\n updatedDate\n urlAlias\n authors {\n location\n name\n types\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n text\n }\n corrections {\n correction {\n text\n }\n timestamp\n }\n images {\n isSlideshow\n height\n width\n url\n }\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n ...liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF\n}\n\nfragment articleSectionsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n sections {\n value {\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...hooksArticleSeoArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n entityId\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n summary {\n text\n }\n subHeadline {\n text\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n text\n }\n keywords\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesArticle on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ...inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle\n ...carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesCarouselContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ... on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT\n}\n\nfragment articleShareWidgetArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSponsorContent on Article {\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n description {\n json\n }\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...headerContentBookmarkArticle\n ...headerContentCommentTrigger\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersUseSharingUrl\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle\n ...hooksContentInterestArticle\n ...hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle\n ...hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle\n ...onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n types\n image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {\n style(filter: {style: \"300x300\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorBioAuthor on Author {\n bio\n}\n\nfragment authorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...styleAuthorCardAuthor\n ...defaultAuthorCardAuthor\n ...plusAuthorCardAuthor\n}\n\nfragment authorNameAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n name\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment authorNamesArticle on Article {\n authorLocations\n authors {\n entityId\n location\n ...authorNameAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorRoleAuthor on Author {\n role {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorSocialLinksAuthor on Author {\n socialLinks {\n class\n title\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment beforeYouGoActionWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle on Article {\n entityId\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleSeriesCarouselContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentActionBarContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n createdDate\n updatedDate\n publishedDate\n ...articleCommentArticle\n ... on Article {\n hasVideoContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentBodyContent_3o8td4 on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_4isNar on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n landscape250x99: style(filter: {style: \"landscape_250_99\"}) {\n url\n }\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_4isNar\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ...contentUpdatedDateContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3wWJWe on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentPublishedDateContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n 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correction {\n text\n }\n timestamp\n }\n images {\n isSlideshow\n height\n width\n url\n }\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n ...liveBlogPostingLiveArticles_2w8PNF\n}\n\nfragment articleSectionsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n sections {\n value {\n ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeoArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...hooksArticleSeoArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n entityId\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n summary {\n text\n }\n subHeadline {\n text\n }\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n text\n }\n keywords\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesArticle on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ...inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle\n ...carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSeriesCarouselContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ... on Article {\n seriesContainer {\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT\n}\n\nfragment articleShareWidgetArticle on Article {\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSpeechPlayerPortalArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...articleSpeechInlineWidgetArticle\n}\n\nfragment articleSponsorContent on Article {\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n description {\n json\n }\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleTitleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicFollowWidgetArticle on Article {\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n disableFollow\n entityId\n name\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicWidgetArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sponsorType\n firstTopic {\n ...entityLink\n ...followButtonBase\n name\n disableFollow\n contents(first: 4, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {\n edges {\n node {\n __typename\n entityId\n ...articleWidgetContent\n id\n }\n }\n }\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleTopicsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n ...topicLinkTopic\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment articleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment articleWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...entityLink\n ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n ...articleSeoArticle_3o8td4\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n ...headerContentBookmarkArticle\n ...headerContentCommentTrigger\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersUseSharingUrl\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n ...hooksTrackPageViewArticle\n ...hooksContentInterestArticle\n ...hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle\n ...hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle\n ...onboardingNewsletterSubscriptionArticle\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n ...hooksUseNotificationsSection\n id\n }\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n entityId\n entityUuid\n name\n types\n image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {\n style(filter: {style: \"300x300\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorAvatarsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorBioAuthor on Author {\n bio\n}\n\nfragment authorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...styleAuthorCardAuthor\n ...defaultAuthorCardAuthor\n ...plusAuthorCardAuthor\n}\n\nfragment authorNameAuthor on Author {\n ...entityLink\n name\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment authorNamesArticle on Article {\n authorLocations\n authors {\n entityId\n location\n ...authorNameAuthor\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorRoleAuthor on Author {\n role {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment authorSocialLinksAuthor on Author {\n socialLinks {\n class\n title\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment beforeYouGoActionWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...shareArticle20Content\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment blockquoteQuotePlusGenericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle on Article {\n entityId\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment carouselArticleSeriesCarouselArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleSeriesCarouselContent\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentActionBarContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n createdDate\n updatedDate\n publishedDate\n ...articleCommentArticle\n ... on Article {\n hasVideoContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentBodyContent_3o8td4 on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n body(customContents: $customContents, type: $bodyType) {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size768x768: style(filter: {style: \"768x768\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_4isNar on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n landscape250x99: style(filter: {style: \"landscape_250_99\"}) {\n url\n }\n size540x360: style(filter: {style: \"540x360\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n images {\n url\n title\n type\n size80x80: style(filter: {style: \"80x80\"}) {\n url\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentCoverVideoContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n socialHeadline\n ...contentHeadlineTagContent\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveArticleArticle on Article {\n ...itemLiveArticleContentArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentLiveTagContent on Article {\n ...helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n relatedLinks\n}\n\nfragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ... on Article {\n relatedNewsletters {\n ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n publishedDate\n}\n\nfragment contentReadMoreButtonContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...appButtonContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...blockquoteQuoteContent\n ...imageContent\n ...inlineWidgetContent\n ...photoGalleryWidgetContent\n ...scmpYoutubeContent\n}\n\nfragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n socialHeadline\n headline\n}\n\nfragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSubHeadlineContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n subHeadline {\n json\n }\n summary {\n json\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment contentSummaryContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n __typename\n summary {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment contentUpdatedDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment contextsArticleListContextProviderArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment contextsContentReadMoreContextProviderContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n}\n\nfragment copyLinkArticle20CopyLinkContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n urlAlias\n shortUrl\n headline\n socialHeadline\n}\n\nfragment defaultArticleDateContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent\n}\n\nfragment defaultAuthorCardAuthor on Author {\n ...authorAvatarAuthor\n ...authorBioAuthor\n ...authorNameAuthor\n ...authorRoleAuthor\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n ...followButtonBase\n}\n\nfragment entityFollowButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ... on Section {\n entityId\n name\n }\n ... on Author {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n ... on Topic {\n entityId\n name\n disableFollow\n }\n}\n\nfragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n entityId\n entityUuid\n urlAlias\n urlRedirect {\n toUrl\n id\n }\n application {\n entityId\n id\n }\n ... on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n parentSection\n }\n ...helpersAppBarVariantBase\n ...helpersApplicationBase\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment factSheetLinkPlusGenericArticleContent on Article {\n entityId\n factSheets {\n url\n name\n }\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment followButtonBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...entityFollowButtonBase\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n ...shareArticle20Content\n}\n\nfragment genericArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericArticle on Article {\n entityId\n ...buttonArticleSpeechInlineWidgetGenericButtonArticle\n ...hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle\n ...toolTipArticleSpeechWidgetToolTipArticle\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4 on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n name\n urlAlias\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n publishedDate\n additionalInfoBoxes {\n ...articleAdditionalInfoBoxArticle\n }\n ...genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle\n ...blockquoteQuoteGenericPostiesArticleContent\n ...articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle\n ...contentBodyContent_3o8td4\n}\n\nfragment genericPostiesArticleVocabBoxArticle on Article {\n glossary {\n term\n translation\n description {\n json\n }\n }\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n}\n\nfragment globalCheckerContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...articlePaywallCheckerContent\n}\n\nfragment headerContentBookmarkArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment headerContentCommentTrigger on Article {\n ...articleCommentsTriggerArticle\n}\n\nfragment headerMorningStudioArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...subheaderMorningStudioSubheaderContent\n headline\n coverDesktop: image(filter: {type: COVER}) {\n url\n }\n coverMobile: image(filter: {type: COVER_MOBILE}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment headerNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n headline\n ...issuesNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...breadcrumbNewsletterArticleArticle\n ...widgetNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersSectionContent\n ...helpersStyleSectionContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckArticleRenderTypeArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckHasLiveTagArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {\n name\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {\n flattenTypeIds\n liveArticle {\n status\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArchiveWallArticle on Article {\n ...helpersIsVelocityWallArticle\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {\n multimediaEmbed {\n json\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersIsVelocityWallArticle on Article {\n paywallTypes {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {\n entityId\n name\n alternativeName\n description {\n text\n }\n summary {\n text\n }\n homepageDescription {\n text\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {\n authors {\n types\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {\n fullSectionPath {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n topics {\n entityId\n sponsor {\n ...sponsorTagSponsor\n name\n type\n id\n }\n id\n }\n ... on Article {\n sponsorType\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent\n}\n\nfragment helpersUseSharingUrl on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n createdDate\n publishedDate\n updatedDate\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleReactionUtilsArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n entityId\n sponsorType\n}\n\nfragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle\n ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle\n ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n authors {\n entityId\n id\n }\n topics {\n sponsor {\n entityId\n id\n }\n id\n }\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n images {\n generic_og: style(filter: {style: \"og_image_scmp_generic\"}) {\n url\n }\n styles(filter: {styles: [\"og_image_posties_article\", \"og_postmag\", \"og_image_scmp_analysis\", \"og_image_scmp_explainer\", \"og_image_scmp_editorial\", \"og_image_scmp_fact_check\", \"og_image_scmp_debate\", \"og_image_scmp_live\", \"og_image_scmp_obituary\", \"og_image_scmp_opinion\", \"og_image_scmp_review\", \"og_image_scmp_series\", \"og_image_scmp_generic\"]}) {\n url\n style\n }\n type\n }\n disableOffPlatformContent\n published\n sponsorType\n urlAlias\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ... on Article {\n types {\n value {\n name\n entityId\n description {\n text\n }\n id\n }\n }\n ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle\n }\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n ...hooksContentHelperContent\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle\n ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle\n ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle\n flag\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentInterestArticle on Article {\n entityId\n sentiment\n urlAlias\n types {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2aLOLQ on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2niEwz on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_4isNar\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ...contentUpdatedDateContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3JkJ9S on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_1OCN1a\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3n3tyT on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_D9JlW\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3wWJWe on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy\n ...contentHeadlineContent\n ...contentPublishedDateContent\n ...contentSummaryContent\n ...contentSponsorTagContent\n ... on Video {\n __typename\n ...videoDurationOverlayVideo\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksPaywallPromiseContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksPostiesArticleArticle_3o8td4 on Article {\n ...genericPostiesArticleContent_3o8td4\n ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle\n}\n\nfragment hooksSeriesArticleSectionTagArticle on Article {\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n name\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksShowGenericInlineWidgetByArticleArticle on Article {\n ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle\n ...hooksPaywallPromiseContent\n entityId\n flag\n sections {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n types {\n value {\n entityId\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n entityId\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackCurrentItemBase_3o8td4 on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {\n __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename\n __typename\n ...atomsCurrentArticleAtomBase_3o8td4\n ...atomsCurrentNotificationSectionAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentTakeoverAdSectionsAtomBase\n ...atomsCurrentStyleCardCarouselWidgetSectionsAtomBase\n}\n\nfragment hooksTrackPageViewArticle on Article {\n entityId\n publishedDate\n headline\n sections {\n value {\n name\n id\n }\n }\n topics {\n name\n entityId\n id\n }\n urlAlias\n authors {\n name\n id\n }\n copyrighted\n entityUuid\n socialHeadline\n sponsor\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseCurrentArticleIdsArticle on Article {\n entityId\n entityUuid\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationReadStatusArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment hooksUseNotificationsSection on Section {\n ...notificationSection\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment imageContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n headline\n ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent\n}\n\nfragment infographicArticleArticle on Article {\n ...globalCheckerContent\n ...landingBannerInfographicArticle\n}\n\nfragment inlineArticleSeriesInlineArticle on Article {\n entityId\n seriesContainer {\n entityId\n headline\n socialHeadline\n urlAlias\n series {\n __typename\n ... on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n entityId\n }\n ... on Node {\n __isNode: __typename\n id\n }\n }\n ...entityLink\n id\n }\n}\n\nfragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {\n __isContent: __typename\n ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n entityId\n}\n\nfragment issuesNewsletterArticleArticle on Article {\n types {\n value {\n entityUuid\n id\n }\n }\n ...issuesDropdownNewsletterArticleArticle\n}\n\nfragment itemLiveArticleContentArticle on Article {\n entityId\n urlAlias\n ...articleImageGalleryContent\n ...contentSchemaRenderContent\n ...contentShareWidgetContent\n}\n\nfragment landingBannerInfographicArticle on Article {\n ...articleSponsorContent\n ...articleShareWidgetArticle\n headline\n topics {\n ...entityLink\n name\n id\n }\n images {\n title\n url\n }\n coverHero: image(filter: {type: HERO}) {\n url\n }\n}\n\nfragment liveArticleArticle on Article 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voting for the 2024 presidential election has already taken place in some parts of the United States. Photo: dpa","url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg","isSlideshow":true,"sizeLandscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=kN3GeJfm\u0026v=1730716554"},"size1280x720":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=xhn3O8_2\u0026v=1730716554"},"size1200x800":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=9S176ds7\u0026v=1730716554"},"size1020x680":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1020x680/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=0eH4j7DG\u0026v=1730716554"},"size768x768":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=5v3A6o92\u0026v=1730716554"},"landscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=kN3GeJfm\u0026v=1730716554"},"size540x360":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/540x360/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=rS1mr0UQ\u0026v=1730716554"},"height":2730,"width":4095}],"disableOffPlatformContent":[],"published":true,"sponsorType":null,"publishedDate":1730768424000,"updatedDate":1730778400000,"summary":{"text":"China’s top legislative body is meeting this week in Beijing, at the same time as Tuesday’s US presidential election.\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s top legislative body is meeting this week in Beijing, at the same time as Tuesday’s US presidential election."}]}]},"subHeadline":{"text":"China’s top legislative body is meeting this week in Beijing, at the same time as Tuesday’s US presidential election\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s top legislative body is meeting this week in Beijing, at the same time as Tuesday’s US presidential election"}]}]},"body":{"text":"The outcome of Tuesday’s US presidential election is expected to shape the scale of China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package, with a victory for former president Donald Trump likely to prompt greater spending to offset the impact of any potential tariffs, analysts said.\nThe estimates suggest the scale of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10 to 20 per cent bigger under a victory for Republican nominee Trump compared to Vice-President and Democratic rival Kamala Harris.\nAnd the scheduling of a five-day meeting of China’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, to overlap closely with the US election reflects the importance of external factors on domestic policies, highlighting the impact of external shocks on the economy and sentiment, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).\n“The NPC is likely to determine the scale of fiscal stimulus based on the US election outcome. If Trump comes to power, the government may signal more aggressive stimulus to offset market concerns about China,” Su said.\nThe EIU expects about 6 trillion yuan (US$844 billion) in special sovereign bonds for debt swaps and large bank recapitalisation, and 4 trillion yuan in special local government bonds for the acquisition of idle land and unsold housing inventory, primarily aimed at easing liquidity issues for developers.\n“If Trump is elected, the stimulus is likely to exceed this scale, or the NPC will issue a more proactive commitment,” Su added.\nWe believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package\nNomura economists\nNomura economists Lu Ting, Wang Jing and Harrington Zhang expect the stimulus package could range from 2 to 3 per cent of gross domestic product annually over the next several years, with a Trump victory likely pushing it toward 3 per cent.\n“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package, though its impact should be quite limited, as the major challenges for Beijing emanate from within rather than outside,” they said.\nLawmakers began the meeting on Monday in Beijing, with a potential stimulus package expected to be among the key issues discussed.\nAnalysts broadly expect lawmakers to approve an injection of around 1 trillion yuan into banks via special sovereign bonds, alongside a government bond issuance for debt swaps over the next few years, with a range estimated of between 6 trillion yuan and 10 trillion yuan.\nDuring his campaign, Trump threatened a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, while Harris has not signalled a divergence from the tech restrictions implemented under the Biden administration.\nExports have remained a crucial driver for the world’s second-largest economy, which is still grappling with shrinking domestic demand, with the US still one of the top destinations for Chinese shipments.\n\n\n“If higher tariffs materialise, policymakers appear willing to launch more stimulus to offset any growth drags,” economists at investment bank Goldman Sachs said at the end of October.\nThe report said Trump was expected to “quickly move to raise tariffs on imports from China,” while adding his proposed 60 per cent rate was plausible on certain strategic imports, and that tariffs on Chinese consumer products would increase by less.\n“[This may result] in an average tariff hike on imports from China of around 20 percentage points – less than proposed but still more than double the rise during the 2018-19 trade war,” the report added.\nIt pointed out an estimated drag of 0.65 percentage points on China’s cumulative GDP by the trade war amid lower exports, increased uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.\nA 60 per cent tariff, they added, would impact real GDP by around 2 percentage points.\nThe final size may be bigger in Trump’s victory, but it may only come slowly\nGary Ng, Natixis\nAdditional countermeasures from Beijing could include allowing the yuan to depreciate, cutting US imports, imposing retaliatory tariffs and restricting exports of critical materials, including rare earths to the US, the report said.\nCustoms data showed the US was China’s top market in September, with shipments up by 2.16 per cent year on year, surpassing exports to the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.\n“While China has remained ambiguous about the actual fiscal stimulus, I doubt whether it would step up the size massively at this stage regardless of the US election outcome,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis.\nHe added Beijing would continue to back the economy to meet its growth target of “around 5 per cent”, but the package would be more of a “painkiller”.\n“The final size may be bigger in Trump’s victory, but it may only come slowly,” Ng said.\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The outcome of Tuesday’s US presidential election is expected to shape the scale of China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package, with a victory for former president Donald Trump likely to prompt greater spending to offset the impact of any potential tariffs, analysts said."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The estimates suggest the scale of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10 to 20 per cent bigger under a victory for Republican nominee Trump compared to Vice-President and Democratic rival Kamala Harris."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"And the scheduling of a "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3284808/chinas-top-lawmakers-gather-whats-store-economy?module=top_story\u0026pgtype=section","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"6a81e1e5-c593-4cff-bf3c-f3d33b7eae4f","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"five-day meeting of China’s top legislative body,"}]},{"type":"text","data":" the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, to overlap closely with the US election reflects the importance of external factors on domestic policies, highlighting the impact of external shocks on the economy and sentiment, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The NPC is likely to determine the scale of fiscal stimulus based on the US election outcome. If Trump comes to power, the government may signal more aggressive stimulus to offset market concerns about China,” Su said."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The EIU expects about 6 trillion yuan (US$844 billion) in special sovereign bonds for debt swaps and large bank recapitalisation, and 4 trillion yuan in special local government bonds for the acquisition of idle land and unsold housing inventory, primarily aimed at easing liquidity issues for developers."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“If Trump is elected, the stimulus is likely to exceed this scale, or the NPC will issue a more proactive commitment,” Su added."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package"},{"type":"text","data":"Nomura economists"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Nomura economists Lu Ting, Wang Jing and Harrington Zhang expect "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3284821/will-chinas-top-legislature-give-green-light-fiscal-stimulus-package?module=top_story\u0026pgtype=section","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"2480092a-4597-469f-9307-99f44c23902e","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"the stimulus package"}]},{"type":"text","data":" could range from 2 to 3 per cent of gross domestic product annually over the next several years, with a Trump victory likely pushing it toward 3 per cent."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package, though its impact should be quite limited, as the major challenges for Beijing emanate from within rather than outside,” they said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Lawmakers began the meeting on Monday in Beijing, with a potential stimulus package expected to be among the key issues discussed."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Analysts broadly expect lawmakers to approve an injection of around 1 trillion yuan into banks via special sovereign bonds, alongside a government bond issuance for debt swaps over the next few years, with a range estimated of between 6 trillion yuan and 10 trillion yuan."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"During his campaign, Trump threatened a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, while Harris has not signalled a divergence from the 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voting for the 2024 presidential election has already taken place in some parts of the United States. Photo: dpa","url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg","isSlideshow":true,"sizeLandscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=kN3GeJfm\u0026v=1730716554"},"size1280x720":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/wide_landscape/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=xhn3O8_2\u0026v=1730716554"},"size1200x800":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=9S176ds7\u0026v=1730716554"},"size1020x680":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1020x680/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=0eH4j7DG\u0026v=1730716554"},"size768x768":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=5v3A6o92\u0026v=1730716554"},"landscape250x99":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_250_99/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=kN3GeJfm\u0026v=1730716554"},"size540x360":{"url":"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/540x360/public/d8/images/canvas/2024/11/04/18fd01e5-99cf-410f-938c-e4b65af7af93_648f07a0.jpg?itok=rS1mr0UQ\u0026v=1730716554"},"height":2730,"width":4095}],"disableOffPlatformContent":[],"published":true,"sponsorType":null,"publishedDate":1730768424000,"updatedDate":1730778400000,"summary":{"text":"China’s top legislative body is meeting this week in Beijing, at the same time as Tuesday’s US presidential election.\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s top legislative body is meeting this week in Beijing, at the same time as Tuesday’s US presidential election."}]}]},"subHeadline":{"text":"China’s top legislative body is meeting this week in Beijing, at the same time as Tuesday’s US presidential election\n","json":[{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"China’s top legislative body is meeting this week in Beijing, at the same time as Tuesday’s US presidential election"}]}]},"body":{"text":"The outcome of Tuesday’s US presidential election is expected to shape the scale of China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package, with a victory for former president Donald Trump likely to prompt greater spending to offset the impact of any potential tariffs, analysts said.\nThe estimates suggest the scale of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10 to 20 per cent bigger under a victory for Republican nominee Trump compared to Vice-President and Democratic rival Kamala Harris.\nAnd the scheduling of a five-day meeting of China’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, to overlap closely with the US election reflects the importance of external factors on domestic policies, highlighting the impact of external shocks on the economy and sentiment, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).\n“The NPC is likely to determine the scale of fiscal stimulus based on the US election outcome. If Trump comes to power, the government may signal more aggressive stimulus to offset market concerns about China,” Su said.\nThe EIU expects about 6 trillion yuan (US$844 billion) in special sovereign bonds for debt swaps and large bank recapitalisation, and 4 trillion yuan in special local government bonds for the acquisition of idle land and unsold housing inventory, primarily aimed at easing liquidity issues for developers.\n“If Trump is elected, the stimulus is likely to exceed this scale, or the NPC will issue a more proactive commitment,” Su added.\nWe believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package\nNomura economists\nNomura economists Lu Ting, Wang Jing and Harrington Zhang expect the stimulus package could range from 2 to 3 per cent of gross domestic product annually over the next several years, with a Trump victory likely pushing it toward 3 per cent.\n“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package, though its impact should be quite limited, as the major challenges for Beijing emanate from within rather than outside,” they said.\nLawmakers began the meeting on Monday in Beijing, with a potential stimulus package expected to be among the key issues discussed.\nAnalysts broadly expect lawmakers to approve an injection of around 1 trillion yuan into banks via special sovereign bonds, alongside a government bond issuance for debt swaps over the next few years, with a range estimated of between 6 trillion yuan and 10 trillion yuan.\nDuring his campaign, Trump threatened a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, while Harris has not signalled a divergence from the tech restrictions implemented under the Biden administration.\nExports have remained a crucial driver for the world’s second-largest economy, which is still grappling with shrinking domestic demand, with the US still one of the top destinations for Chinese shipments.\n\n\n“If higher tariffs materialise, policymakers appear willing to launch more stimulus to offset any growth drags,” economists at investment bank Goldman Sachs said at the end of October.\nThe report said Trump was expected to “quickly move to raise tariffs on imports from China,” while adding his proposed 60 per cent rate was plausible on certain strategic imports, and that tariffs on Chinese consumer products would increase by less.\n“[This may result] in an average tariff hike on imports from China of around 20 percentage points – less than proposed but still more than double the rise during the 2018-19 trade war,” the report added.\nIt pointed out an estimated drag of 0.65 percentage points on China’s cumulative GDP by the trade war amid lower exports, increased uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.\nA 60 per cent tariff, they added, would impact real GDP by around 2 percentage points.\nThe final size may be bigger in Trump’s victory, but it may only come slowly\nGary Ng, Natixis\nAdditional countermeasures from Beijing could include allowing the yuan to depreciate, cutting US imports, imposing retaliatory tariffs and restricting exports of critical materials, including rare earths to the US, the report said.\nCustoms data showed the US was China’s top market in September, with shipments up by 2.16 per cent year on year, surpassing exports to the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.\n“While China has remained ambiguous about the actual fiscal stimulus, I doubt whether it would step up the size massively at this stage regardless of the US election outcome,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis.\nHe added Beijing would continue to back the economy to meet its growth target of “around 5 per cent”, but the package would be more of a “painkiller”.\n“The final size may be bigger in Trump’s victory, but it may only come slowly,” Ng said.\n","json":[{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The outcome of Tuesday’s US presidential election is expected to shape the scale of China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package, with a victory for former president Donald Trump likely to prompt greater spending to offset the impact of any potential tariffs, analysts said."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"0"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The estimates suggest the scale of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10 to 20 per cent bigger under a victory for Republican nominee Trump compared to Vice-President and Democratic rival Kamala Harris."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"And the scheduling of a "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3284808/chinas-top-lawmakers-gather-whats-store-economy?module=top_story\u0026pgtype=section","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"6a81e1e5-c593-4cff-bf3c-f3d33b7eae4f","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"five-day meeting of China’s top legislative body,"}]},{"type":"text","data":" the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, to overlap closely with the US election reflects the importance of external factors on domestic policies, highlighting the impact of external shocks on the economy and sentiment, said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"1"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“The NPC is likely to determine the scale of fiscal stimulus based on the US election outcome. If Trump comes to power, the government may signal more aggressive stimulus to offset market concerns about China,” Su said."}]},{"type":"track-viewed-percentage","attribs":{"percentage":"20"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"The EIU expects about 6 trillion yuan (US$844 billion) in special sovereign bonds for debt swaps and large bank recapitalisation, and 4 trillion yuan in special local government bonds for the acquisition of idle land and unsold housing inventory, primarily aimed at easing liquidity issues for developers."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"2"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“If Trump is elected, the stimulus is likely to exceed this scale, or the NPC will issue a more proactive commitment,” Su added."}]},{"type":"blockquote-quote","attribs":{"class":"blockquote"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package"},{"type":"text","data":"Nomura economists"}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Nomura economists Lu Ting, Wang Jing and Harrington Zhang expect "},{"type":"a","attribs":{"href":"https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3284821/will-chinas-top-legislature-give-green-light-fiscal-stimulus-package?module=top_story\u0026pgtype=section","title":"","target":"_self","data-entity-uuid":"2480092a-4597-469f-9307-99f44c23902e","data-entity-type":"node","data-entity-bundle":"article"},"children":[{"type":"text","data":"the stimulus package"}]},{"type":"text","data":" could range from 2 to 3 per cent of gross domestic product annually over the next several years, with a Trump victory likely pushing it toward 3 per cent."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"3"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package, though its impact should be quite limited, as the major challenges for Beijing emanate from within rather than outside,” they said."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Lawmakers began the meeting on Monday in Beijing, with a potential stimulus package expected to be among the key issues discussed."}]},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"Analysts broadly expect lawmakers to approve an injection of around 1 trillion yuan into banks via special sovereign bonds, alongside a government bond issuance for debt swaps over the next few years, with a range estimated of between 6 trillion yuan and 10 trillion yuan."}]},{"type":"inline-ad-slot","attribs":{"tag":"4"}},{"type":"p","children":[{"type":"text","data":"During his campaign, Trump threatened a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, while Harris has not signalled a divergence from the 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