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若能化整为零 Facebook并不是“非死不可” | 海外周选|Facebook|WhatsApp|Instagram_新浪科技_新浪网
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translateY(100%); } to { opacity: 1 } } .fadeOutTop { animation-name: fadeOutTop } @keyframes fadeOutTop { from { opacity: 1 } to { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(-100%); } } .fadeOutBottom { animation-name: fadeOutBottom } @keyframes fadeOutBottom { from { opacity: 1 } to { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(100%); } } /*loading logo*/ .loadinglogo{ animation: loadinglogo infinite 1.5s ease-in-out } @keyframes loadinglogo { 50% { transform: translateY(15px) } } .loading-logo{background-image: url(//n.sinaimg.cn/finance/page/ent/images/sinaLogo1x.png);background-image: -webkit-image-set(url(//n.sinaimg.cn/finance/page/ent/images/sinaLogo1x.png) 1x,url(//n.sinaimg.cn/finance/page/ent/images/sinaLogo2x.png) 2x);background-repeat: no-repeat;margin: 0 auto;width: 80px;margin-top: 30px;padding-top:36px;font-size:14px;color:#333;background-position:center 0;text-align:center;} @keyframes pulse {from {transform: scale3d(1, 1, 1); opacity: 0.3;} 50% {transform: scale3d(1.3, 1.3, 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//html5播放器上视频还未开始播显示的图片，可与pic相同 title: '细说Snapchat与Facebook的恩怨情仇', //标题 source: '', //视频发布来源。如：新华网。 url: 'https://t.cj.sina.cn/articles/view/2907917243/mad534bbb03300vet3?from=tech' }]; SinaPage.loadWidget({ trigger: { id: 'videoList0' }, require:[ { url: "//sjs2.sinajs.cn/video/sinaplayer/js/page/player_v1.js" }, { url: "//finance.sina.com.cn/other/src/sinaPageVideo2017.js" } ], onAfterLoad: function () { new SinaPageVideo({ wrap:'videoList0',//播放器外层id videoList:SINA_TEXT_PAGE_INFO['videoDatas0'] }); } }); </script> <!--/video-list--> <div class="img_wrapper"><img src="//n.sinaimg.cn/tech/transform/302/w630h472/20210903/f26a-5c5b6aa956fdfd14f6c2af62ea6dfe59.jpg" alt="" data-link=""><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p> 编译 / 图尔</p> <p> <strong>马克•扎克伯格的“拉戈礁时刻”</strong></p> <p> 1972年5月，美国通信巨头AT&T正身陷危机之中，高管们在佛罗里达州拉戈礁秘密会面。</p> <p> 当时，贝尔系统的庞大垄断由三大业务组成：Western Electric（用于美国电话通讯的大多数电话和电缆）、利润丰厚的长途服务（个人和商业用途）以及本地电话服务。对于本地电话服务，贝尔系统以补贴换取垄断地位。</p> <p> 在接下来的十年里，议员、监管机构和法院与AT&T的律师来回交锋，媒体相关报道也层出不穷，AT&T的声誉可谓是一路下跌。1982年，一纸同意令迫使AT&T拆分。曾经一度是全球市值Top1的AT&T，市值打了三折。庞大的贝尔系统拆分出了“继承者”——新AT&T公司和七个本地电话公司（贝尔七兄弟）。AT&T这块招牌得以延续，哪怕全世界都知道这家公司已经成为过去式。</p> <div class="img_wrapper"><img src="//n.sinaimg.cn/tech/transform/250/w630h420/20210903/5452-3025700ac2b63488425b2430eacc8b16.png" alt="" data-link=""><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p> 8月初，美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）重新提起了针对<span id="usstock_FB"><a href="http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/usstock/quotes/FB.html" class="keyword f_st" target="_blank">Facebook</a></span><span id=quote_FB></span>的全面反垄断诉讼，其创始人兼CEO马克•扎克伯格迎来了他的“拉戈礁时刻”。</p> <p> Facebook目前也有着自己的“三驾马车”：Facebook、Instagram和WhatsApp，这三驾马车如今也在水深火热之中。议员、监管机构和法院也正摩拳擦掌，媒体也蜂拥而至，Facebook的声誉同样也是每况愈下。正如当年的AT&T一样，Facebook也已处在危险边缘。扎克伯格一贯主张“快速行动、打破局面（move fast and break things）”。现在，该是他打破Facebook的时候了。</p> <p> 扎克伯格曾在2012年的IPO招股书中写道，Facebook不仅仅是一家公司，它的存在是为了“让世界更加开放、更加互联”。若真如此，扎克伯格现在就该把Instagram和WhatsApp独立出来，让其野蛮生长。这将是扎克伯格式的终极棋步，因为局面很明显：</p> <div class="tech-quotation clearfix"><span class="tech-quotation-right tech-span"></span><div class="tech-con"> <p> 反垄断风暴已至，美国政府拆分Facebook只是时间早晚的问题；</p> <p> Facebook早就在走下坡路了，Facebook、Instagram和WhatsApp也都面临生存威胁。Facebook为挽回颓势所做的努力也因政府施压而扼杀；</p> <p> 倘若三驾马车分别独立行走，股东收益更大。</p> </div><span class="tech-quotation-left tech-span"></span></div> <p> FTC不会轻易放过扎克伯格，Facebook也一直没能做出创新。</p> <p> 在吸引不到新人才和技术的情况下，Facebook如何长足发展？</p> <p> 在没有机会获得新技术和人才的情况下，Facebook如何长期生存？2006年，雅虎时任CEO特里•塞梅尔提出以10亿美元收购Facebook。扎克伯格当时表示：“我只是不知道自己想不想在特里•塞梅尔手下打工。”如今，马克•扎克伯格却和当年的特里•塞梅尔一样，成了一名“收购狂魔”。</p> <p> <strong>Facebook终将被拆分</strong></p> <p> 1890年，现代美国反垄断运动的创始人——参议员约翰•谢尔曼——在国会演讲时有句名言。他说：“如果我们无法容忍垄断政治权力垄断，那我们也不该容忍生活必需品的生产、运输和销售等环节被垄断；如果我们拒绝屈服于一个帝王，我们也不应屈服于一个有权遏制竞争和制定商品价格的贸易独裁者。”</p> <p> 这种情绪促使人们愈发抵触Facebook。扎克伯格曾自豪地表示Facebook是第五阶级，可美国只有四个阶级（神职人员、贵族、农村居民和城市居民）。</p> <div class="img_wrapper"><img src="//n.sinaimg.cn/tech/transform/222/w630h392/20210903/6f59-09b05fe211df5798a89c2dde6ecda42e.jpg" alt="" data-link=""><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p> 联邦政府的三大部门都在加快对Facebook的调查步伐。在参议院，罕见的两党联盟正在形成——民主党、共和党的几位议员矛头都指向了Facebook。</p> <p> 在众议院，议长南希•佩洛西（民主党）称Facebook传播虚假消息，是干预选举“问题的一部分”。莉娜•可汗领导下的FTC这边也摩拳擦掌，并获得了白宫的明确支持。在各州州检察长的协助下，司法部也将参与其中，法院自然也不会熟视无睹。</p> <p> Facebook的联合创始人克里斯•休斯2019年在《纽约时报》发布专栏评论文章《是时候拆分Facebook了（It’s Time to Break Up Facebook）》。扎克伯格之后便说，Facebook规模巨大，所以公司能够在信任和安全方面进行大量投入，投入的体量甚至超过<span id="usstock_TWTR"><a href="http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/usstock/quotes/TWTR.html" class="keyword f_st" target="_blank">Twitter</a></span><span id=quote_TWTR></span>的营收。</p> <p> 扎克伯格说：“如果你关心民主和选举，像Facebook这种级别的大厂每年花个几十亿来开发尖端工具保护选举、打击干扰，不正是如你所愿吗？”</p> <p> 听起来似乎很有道理，但这并不能证明如此权力集中于一人之手符合美国的公共政策。另外，集中式运营可以在独立实体中轻松重建。</p> <p> 从否认大屠杀到选举宣传、再到虚假疫苗信息，扎克伯格在面对其信任和安全团队所揭露的信息时总是难以迅速判断，甚至在做出决定之前，该团队的结构就使它难以判断Facebook品牌的危害因素。这在本质上不符合美国的民主。《纽约时报》的记者们不停地揭露Facebook的丑闻，三番五次打脸扎克伯格。Facebook的走向如何，已经可以预知。</p> <p> <strong>“三驾马车”互相牵制</strong></p> <p> Facebook、Instagram和WhatsApp均面临生存威胁，政府施加的压力将扼杀Facebook挽回颓势的努力。</p> <p> 长期以来，Facebook长期以来一直主导着社交媒体行业。<span id="hkstock_hk00700"><a href="http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/hkstock/quotes/00700.html" class="keyword f_st" target="_blank">腾讯</a></span><span id="quote_hk00700"></span>创始人马化腾曾有过一句话：“巨人稍微没跟上形势，就可能倒下。巨人倒下时，身上还是暖的。”这句话可以很好地形容Facebook的现状。</p> <p> Facebook如今的衰落得从其品牌说起。过去十年中，桩桩件件丑闻早就对Facebook的品牌形象造成了不可逆的损害。该公司对两个关键指标（对世界有益和关心用户）的内部调查也都表明其声誉岌岌可危。旗舰产品Facebook早就被年轻人抛弃，而且公司人才也在流失。光是Instacart一家公司最近就从Facebook挖走了55名高管。</p> <div class="img_wrapper"><img src="//n.sinaimg.cn/tech/transform/250/w630h420/20210903/efc9-4ef6c1e4cbeaeedfabd903bda61d26cc.jpg" alt="" data-link=""><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p> Instagram和WhatsApp分别在2012年和2014年被Facebook收购，从此便踏上不归路。这两大产品成了如今Facebook两大最具前景、但未充分利用的资产，它们就是这个时代投资不充分的电话网络。</p> <p> 几周前，Instagram负责人亚当•莫瑟里宣布，Instagram的定位不再仅仅是个图片分享应用，它现在的重心是娱乐。其实就是媒体报道的那样：在短视频当道的今天，Instagram也开始积极求变。</p> <p> 但对Instagram而言，可能为时已晚。作为Facebook的一部分，Instagram现在难以吸引到第一梯队的人才和技术。</p> <p> 大胆想象一下，要是Instagram收购Squarespace来强化自身的电商产品，或收购Etsy来推出一个有意义的市场平台，局面会是怎样。但受制于Facebook，Instagram的战略并不明确。</p> <p> WhatsApp也是一样。WhatsApp自身可以轻松地成为市值1000亿美元的公司。WhatsApp一向以稳定、安全著称，但其品牌形象却也被Facebook牵连。游戏聊天软件Discord的崛起对WhatsApp造成巨大威胁，但WhatsApp也没能靠社群沟通上的创新来破局。“阅后即焚”应用<span id="usstock_SNAP"><a href="http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/usstock/quotes/SNAP.html" class="keyword f_st" target="_blank">Snap</a></span><span id=quote_SNAP></span>chat在很多方面也是WhatsApp的潜在对手。Snapchat上的年轻用户主要靠摄影和视频来互动。Facebook的顶级增强现实人才也纷纷用脚投票，跳槽去了Snapchat。</p> <p> 凭借20亿的月活，WhatsApp可以成为注重隐私版的Facebook替代产品，也可以合理地引入扩展个人资料、照片分享功能以及其它可以强化该产品的特点。但其实在Facebook内部，WhatsApp因为对Facebook和Messenger构成了威胁而缺乏投资，股东们也因此蒙受损失。</p> <p> 除了Instagram和WhatsApp，Facebook本身也在苦苦挣扎。二季度收益虽增长迅猛，但激增背后也有隐忧：广告增长了47%，但库存仅增加了6%。这意味着Facebook正在努力寻找新的广告投放点。为什么呢？因为Facebook的核心社交版图太过陈旧。</p> <p> 曾经的国民级社交软件Facebook如今也24岁了，超过一半的用户都已年过半百，而很多年轻人手机上针织没有装Facebook应用。</p> <p> 扎克伯格对元宇宙的执著获得了大量报道，但问题依然存在：既然如此认真，Facebook为什么不收购Roblox呢？答案显然易见：FTC不会批准这笔交易。</p> <p> Facebook目前在硬件领域，特别是工作场所硬件的尝试也没有明显成效。正如媒体报道的那样，“虽然Facebook的高管博斯沃思激情满满，绘声绘色地讲述他将如何用Workrooms和同事们进行虚拟聚会，还说这种创新方式不同于常规的视频聊天。然而在展示的时候，他的虚拟形象卡住了，然后断线了，场面十分尴尬。”</p> <p> Facebook不再如往日那样不屈不挠，它老了。</p> <p> <strong>把握时机 化整为零</strong></p> <p> 扎克伯格掌握着58%的Facebook投票权股份，而投资者早已厌倦扎克伯格的绝对控制权。许多人相信Facebook拆分后会更有价值，因为拆分成功的AT&T就是个典型。</p> <p> AT&T在1984年拆分。五年后，新AT&T公司以及贝尔七兄弟的市值总和，相比拆分前的AT&T翻了一倍。日本竞争对手施加的压力虽然重创了Western Electric’s的市场份额，但电话通讯领域的更激烈竞争激发了贝尔七兄弟之间的投资和创新。</p> <p> 新AT&T公司则把重点转移到与<span id="usstock_IBM"><a href="http://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/usstock/quotes/IBM.html" class="keyword f_st" target="_blank">IBM</a></span><span id=quote_IBM></span>的竞争，并为即将到来的信息时代做准备。规模缩小的AT&T比以前更加灵活，可以着眼于未来，而非沉溺于过去。</p> <div class="img_wrapper"><img src="//n.sinaimg.cn/tech/transform/249/w630h419/20210903/97b9-b09ce54ec5b549b2ac68ada79f37bad9.jpg" alt="" data-link=""><span class="img_descr"></span></div> <p> 同理，Facebook、Instagram和WhatsApp可以通过吸引人才和收购新技术来彻底改变各自的未来。</p> <p> Facebook以4亿美元收购在线动态GIF图片搜索引擎Giphy的计划因涉嫌反垄断遭到英国监管部门的反对。这也印证了Facebook将来很难再随意收购，哪怕是收购一些小公司。</p> <p> 扎克伯格一直领先一步，而当他不再遥遥领先时，Facebook的画风却变成了“抄袭比创新更快”。如果他真的相信Facebook的使命，并知道现在仍在下坡路上，他应该在走投无路之前先体面地复制AT&T的解决方案。</p> <p> 监管机构正不断约束扎克伯格，Facebook也面临着世界各地的冲击。扎克伯格的偶像奥古斯都•凯撒曾有一句名言：及时行乐（carpe diem）。扎克伯格或许也应该把握时机，将Facebook分立。“三驾马车”若能各自打拼，如今庞大而略显笨重的Facebook或许并不是“非死不可”。</p><!-- news_keyword_pub,usstock,IBM&FB&hk00700&TWTR&SNAP --> <!-- <div class="show_statement"> 声明：新浪网独家稿件，未经授权禁止转载。</div> --> <!-- tech_web_article_v2015_block_bottom --> <!-- 非定向300*250按钮 17/09 wenjing begin --> <div id="left_hzh_ad"> <script async charset="utf-8" src="//d5.sina.com.cn/litong/zhitou/sinaads/release/sinaads.js"></script> <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="//d2.sina.com.cn/d1images/button/rotator.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> (function(){ var adScript = document.createElement('script'); adScript.src = '//d1.sina.com.cn/litong/zhitou/sinaads/demo/wenjing8/js/yl_left_hzh_20171020.js'; 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