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国庆长假期间全球大宗商品整体坚挺-我的钢铁网
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<p>方正中期期货研究院全球宏观经济研究员陈臻告诉期货日报记者，今年国庆期间，美联储货币政策预期主导全球股市走势，在10月3日美国公布9月制造业PMI大幅低于预期后，市场对美联储货币政策收紧预期降温，全球股市迎来利好连续两日录得上涨，随后10月5日美国公布的9月非制造业PMI和10月7日的非农就业报告均好于预期，美联储官员接连释放鹰派信号，市场对美联储货币政策收紧预期再次加强，全球股市也冲高回落。</p> <p>展望国庆长假之后的首个交易日，陈臻认为，因国内A股与欧美股市存在一定的联动性，因此预计在开盘后1—2个小时之内，国内A股市场大概率集中反馈长假期间国内外的信息，鉴于纳指在长假期间累计微涨以及9月30日收盘后中国PMI反弹至荣枯线以上，国内A股在交易首日开盘后出现小幅上涨的可能性更高。</p> <p>国投安信期货原油分析师李云旭分析表示，OPEC+主动减产一般都是在油价同比回落明显且累库预期相对确定的背景下开始，本次在当前原油低库存且强back结构下的实质性减产可谓十分罕见，从对原油基本面的传导来看，在俄罗斯产量预期本就充满不确定性的背景下，目前供应逻辑对油价的利多效应大幅增强。总的说，OPEC+减产加速了油价的上行，今年四季度仍是交易供应前景的重要时间段，在OPEC+产量政策相对稳定且已有收紧的背景下，多头思路延续，同时需关注俄油降量若被证实，原油进一步打开上方空间的可能。</p> <p>“具体从供给端来看，全球油气上游勘探企业资本支出下降令原油剩余产能不足，主要产油国增产潜力均受限，欧美制裁下俄罗斯供给将进一步受制约，OPEC+再度宣布减产200万桶/日，但实际减产量或只有80万—100万桶/日。同时，后续美国可能通过释放战略石油储备、放松对委内瑞拉的制裁以及推进NOPEC反垄断法案生效等措施进行反制。此外，伊朗供给回归仍无时间表。从需求端来看，目前原油需求层面面临的最大压力源于经济的走弱，中长期的经济转弱对石油消费的负面冲击将进一步兑现，而欧洲天然气价格高企或将引发部分石油替代需求，但替代量有限。”方正中期首席石油化工研究员隋晓影告诉记者，从供需平衡角度来看，原油需求走弱相对确定，未来原油供需平衡表的变化主要将取决于供应端，包括OPEC+产量政策变化、伊朗供给能否回归以及俄罗斯供给受限程度等因素对全球原油供给影响较大。</p> <p>从油价走势来看，隋晓影认为，OPEC+再度减产对短线油价走势形成提振，节后油价会出现脉冲行情，预计会上冲至700—720附近，而后将转入高位区间振荡。此外值得注意的是，后续美国大概率会出台反制措施或再度打压油价，叠加全球经济走弱对石油消费的持续冲击，油价中长期再度下探新低概率较大，操作上建议短多长空。</p> <p>贵金属方面，假期期间COMEX黄金、白银分别收涨1.42%和6.19%。回顾来看，中信建投期货贵金属分析师王彦青表示，在避险情绪的推动下，市场重新配置美债以及贵金属等避险资产，而在美债利率下滑后，美元指数也出现了大幅回撤，从而在一定程度上对贵金属的反弹起到了推波助澜的作用。与此同时，从地缘政治上看，假期期间俄乌冲突持续升级，OPEC+重启减产计划，也推升了市场的通胀预期。在上述背景下，贵金属出现大幅反弹。但随后10月7日公布的美国非农数据继续持续改善，又再次推升美联储在11月加息75个基点的概率，美元指数也止跌回升，带动贵金属投机情绪消退，从高位有所回落。</p> <p>“建议后续继续关注美国9月通胀数据，如继续维持回落趋势，且租金分项也能够出现一定回落，那么将在一定程度上抵消鹰派加息预期，贵金属预计将再度反弹。但是，如下周公布的通胀数据再度超出市场预期，那么市场对于美联储加息的预期将再度增强，届时贵金属将继续回落。”王彦青说。</p> <p>外盘<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>在假期期间则涨跌互现，多数品种前期振荡走强后期回落，其间波动幅度均较大。其中LME<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0203-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铅</a>累计上涨8.09%领涨有色，LME<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>上涨2.24%，LME<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0204-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锌</a>下跌0.82%，LME<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>下跌1.28%，LME<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍</a>下跌1.30%，LME<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>累计跌幅最大达6.71%。</p> <p>新湖研究所有色金属研发总监孙匡文对记者表示，假期期间外盘有色金属行情主要受美元指数波动影响。在此期间，欧洲天然气价格大跌，欧洲锌、铝冶炼厂亏损缓解，减产预期减弱，相应对锌、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>格的支撑也削弱，加剧了10月7日铝、锌价格的回落；假期期间Nyrstar关闭其位于澳洲的一铅冶炼厂55天的消息刺激<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0203-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铅价</a>走势尤为强劲，海外库存低且持续去化也给予铅价较强支撑；相对而言，本周外盘锡价表现较弱，这主要受消费走弱、海外库存高压制。</p> <p>孙匡文认为，总的说全球经济下行态势愈发明显将抑制金属消费，而金属供给端则普遍呈增加态势。短期内宏观面、地缘政治等不确定性对市场情绪影响仍较大，或使得金属价格反复波动。国内假期结束后，因传统旺季尚未结束，有色金属消费端有一定的改善预期，不过预期尚待兑现；此外，虽然国内地产等终端市场有边际改善迹象，但也要看到国内出口回落势头明显；不过，当前有色金属普遍低库存的状况对其短期价格有一定支撑。品种之间则会因供需基本面差异表现而有所差异，其中供给端扰动较大的铝或有偏强表现。</p> <p>外盘<a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>方面，油脂油料板块走势分化。以BMD毛棕榈油和CBOT豆油为首的油脂板块强势上涨，BMD毛棕榈油、CBOT豆油分别累计上涨12.61%和3.83%，油料类大豆及豆粕则以弱势下跌为主。在国联期货农产品事业部徐亚光看来，CBOT大豆和豆粕下跌主要受9月30日USDA公布的美国大豆季度库存比9月供需报告的大豆期末库存预测值高出0.34亿蒲，导致2022/2023年度期初库存和供应量增加；马油在假期止跌反弹则受到原油强势上涨、主产区陷入暴雨和雷暴天气、期货盘面前期超跌和印度9月大量进口等因素的综合影响；在马油上涨的带动下，豆油在假期也出现跟涨，但在美豆供应增加的背景下，涨幅小于棕榈油。</p> <p>徐亚光认为，总的来看，10月中上旬国内大豆仍然存在到港少的问题，油厂豆粕、豆油库存低，基差维持高位，整体走势将强于外盘；从中长期来看，在大豆集中到港以及南美大豆预期增产的压力下，豆系品种价格重心将逐渐下移。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：沈一冰 021-26093395 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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