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<!doctype html>       <html class="no-js mq" lang="en-US" >  <head> <meta charset="UTF-8"> <title>Russia in Decline - Jamestown</title> <link rel="profile" href="http://gmpg.org/xfn/11"> <link rel="pingback" href="/xmlrpc.php"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0"> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Jamestown Feed" href="https://jamestown.org/feed/"> <link rel="icon" href="https://jamestown.org/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon"/> <meta name='robots' content='index, follow, max-image-preview:large, max-snippet:-1, max-video-preview:-1' /> <style>img:is([sizes="auto" i], [sizes^="auto," i]) { contain-intrinsic-size: 3000px 1500px }</style>  <meta property="og:title" content="Russia in Decline" /> <meta property="og:description" content="This project begins with the assumption that Russia is in fact in decline, and that the way Russia declines will likely have consequences that Western policies and strategies will be forced to address. Evidence of decline across most aspects of political, economic, and social life in Russia is now plentiful, and little evidence suggests that overall decline is reversible. Some …" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"> <meta name="twitter:title" content="Russia in Decline" /> <meta name="twitter:description" content="This project begins with the assumption that Russia is in fact in decline, and that the way Russia declines will likely have consequences that Western policies and strategies will be forced to address. Evidence of decline across most aspects of political, economic, and social life in Russia is now plentiful, and little evidence suggests that overall decline is reversible. Some …" />   <link rel="canonical" href="https://jamestown.org/programs/rd/" /> <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" /> <meta name="twitter:title" content="Russia in Decline - Jamestown" /> <meta name="twitter:description" content="This project begins with the assumption that Russia is in fact in decline, and that the way Russia declines will likely have consequences that Western policies and strategies will be forced to address. Evidence of decline across most aspects of political, economic, and social life in Russia is now plentiful, and little evidence suggests that overall decline is reversible. 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href="/?s=&advanced_search=1">Advanced Search</a> </form> </div> <button type="button" class="hide-for-large off-canvas-button" data-toggle="offCanvas"><i></i></button> </div></div> </div> </header>  <div class="page-content"> <div class="row"> <div class="column medium-17 js-eh" role="main"> <header class="section-header"> <img src="/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Russia_in_Decline_Banner.jpg" alt=""> </header> <section class="section-description"> <p style="text-align: justify;">This project begins with the assumption that Russia is in fact in decline, and that the way Russia declines will likely have consequences that Western policies and strategies will be forced to address. Evidence of decline across most aspects of political, economic, and social life in Russia is now plentiful, and little evidence suggests that overall decline is reversible. Some areas of decline—for example, Russia’s demographic crisis, or in knowledge production—are profound and increasingly rapid. That said, in some areas Russia is making a concerted effort not to decline, for example in the development and reform of its military, which continues to boast some impressive select capabilities. But building the military to compensate for decline elsewhere hints at scenarios of the future that could be fraught with risk and conflict.</p> <p style="text-align: justify;">In their analyses, the project’s participants have tried to envision what might plausibly lie along the pathways leading to Russia’s decline. They have sought to identify the forces, attitudes, and ideas driving decline and Russians’ responses to it. Where possible, they have attempted to describe a range of potential alternative destinations for Russia, as well as conceivable contingencies that could emerge along the way. In particular, they have focused on potential downside scenarios, the dynamics that could power them, the critical uncertainties whose resolution might push scenarios in different directions, and the possible wildcards that might radically, rapidly, and unpredictably alter the shape and movement of the competitive landscape.</p> <p style="text-align: justify;">The project’s analyses and products will appear on this Jamestown Foundation website. These include papers by Russian experts, who are grappling with how to think about decline from “the inside,” as it were. Their analyses are augmented and expanded by those of several well-known Western experts, who survey how Russians think about particularly impactful elements of decline and what this might mean for Russia going forward. A final workshop of experts will assess how decline might affect Russia’s relations with the West, and explore policy options for dealing with a transforming Russia. We envision compiling these materials in a single volume, as well as several smaller, focused analyses on particular aspects of Russia’s decline, with appropriate contextual analysis and synthetic assessment. The final volume will be published by The Jamestown Foundation.</p> <h2 style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://jamestown.org/programs/rd/about-russia-in-decline/"><strong>For More About the <em>Russia in Decline</em> Project Click Here</strong></a></h2> <figure id="attachment_77518" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 86px;"></figure> <h4></h4> <figure id="attachment_77518" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 90px;"><a href="https://jamestown.org/product/russia-in-decline/"><img class="align wp-image-77518" src="https://jamestown.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FrontCover_Russia-in-Decline.jpg.webp" alt="" width="90" height="135" /></a></figure> <h4 style="text-align: right;">Now available as a bound compilation. To purchase a hard copy of <em>Russia in Decline</em> or download the free e-book, please visit the <a href="https://jamestown.org/product/russia-in-decline/">Jamestown Store</a>.</h4> <figure id="attachment_77518" class="wp-caption aligncenter"></figure> <figure id="attachment_77518" class="wp-caption alignright"></figure> </section> <section class="section-latest"> <h4 class="header-title row column">Latest Articles</h4> <article id="post-76513" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/foreword-decline-decay-disintegration-russias-future-21st-century/" itemprop="name">Foreword — Decline, Decay and Disintegration: Russia’s Future in the 21st Century</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">March 4, 2017 05:54 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/paul-goble/">Paul Goble</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">Russia currently faces three existential challenges that already point to its decline, decay and even disintegration in the coming decades. It has an economy oriented to the past rather than the future, one incapable of supporting a worthy standard of living for its people or... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/foreword-decline-decay-disintegration-russias-future-21st-century/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-76512" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/introduction/" itemprop="name">Introduction</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">March 4, 2017 05:51 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/s-enders-wimbush/">S. Enders Wimbush</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">As early as in the late 1980s, academic Nikita Moiseev remarked that Russia was entering a period of dusk that could in equal measure turn into a dawn or a decline. Today there’s hardly anybody left outside the immediate “Kremlin circle” (or for that matter... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/introduction/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-74739" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/marlene-laruelle-how-islam-will-change-russia/" itemprop="name">How Islam Will Change Russia</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">September 13, 2016 08:55 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/marlene-laruelle/">Marlene Laruelle</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">Russia is becoming increasingly a Muslim country. Out of a total population of over 146 million (including two million in annexed Crimea), it counts about 15 million people of Muslim background—even if not all are believers and even fewer practice Islam. Given forthcoming demographic changes,... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/marlene-laruelle-how-islam-will-change-russia/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-75988" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/demography-human-resources-unforgiving-constraints-russia-decline/" itemprop="name">Demography and Human Resources: Unforgiving Constraints for a Russia in Decline</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">September 13, 2016 08:53 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/nicholas-eberstadt/">Nicholas Eberstadt</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">The famous aphorism attributed to the 19th century French polymath and socialist Auguste Comte is that “demography is destiny.” Perhaps so—but only over a sweep of history so grand, so vast and so distant from human beings themselves that human agency is no longer visible.... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/demography-human-resources-unforgiving-constraints-russia-decline/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-74737" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/stephen-blank-russian-writers-on-the-decline-of-russia-in-the-far-east-and-the-rise-of-china/" itemprop="name">Russian Writers on the Decline of Russia in the Far East and the Rise of China</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">September 13, 2016 08:52 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/stephen-blank/">Stephen Blank</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">Russia’s rapprochement with China began in the 1980s and 1990s; while its “pivot to Asia” began in 2008. Thus Russia has never completely absented itself from Asia even though for a long time the region played a secondary or tertiary role in Russian foreign policy.... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/stephen-blank-russian-writers-on-the-decline-of-russia-in-the-far-east-and-the-rise-of-china/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-74697" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/stephen-blank-can-russia-sustain-its-military-capability/" itemprop="name">Can Russia Sustain Its Military Capability?</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">September 13, 2016 08:50 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/stephen-blank/">Stephen Blank</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine and subsequently accelerating militarization has forced us to re-examine Russian defense policy as a central focus of foreign attention. The war in Ukraine, Russia’s intervention in Syria, increasing signs of a manufactured war psychosis inside Russia and the visible improvements... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/stephen-blank-can-russia-sustain-its-military-capability/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-74632" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/ilan-berman-russias-fraught-demographic-future/" itemprop="name">Russia’s Fraught Demographic Future</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">September 13, 2016 08:49 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/ilan-berman/">Ilan Berman</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">Russia today is undergoing a profound demographic transformation. Contrary to the official narrative being propounded by the Kremlin, the Russian Federation still labors under deeply adverse demographic trends driven by a confluence of societal and cultural factors. These trends will invariably affect both the size... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/ilan-berman-russias-fraught-demographic-future/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-74725" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/harley-balzer-russias-knowledge-economy-decline-views-from-inside/" itemprop="name">Russia’s Knowledge Economy Decline: Views From Inside</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">September 13, 2016 08:48 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/harley-balzer/">Harley Balzer</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">Summary This paper begins with an overview of Russian assessments of knowledge economy challenges. It then focuses more specifically on problems in science and education. Special attention is devoted to bureaucratic competition, funding, personnel and the limited role of business in the knowledge economy. This... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/harley-balzer-russias-knowledge-economy-decline-views-from-inside/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7781" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/denis-volkov-russia-of-the-mid-2020s-breakdown-of-the-political-order/" itemprop="name">Russia of the Mid-2020s: Breakdown of the Political Order</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:22 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/denis-volkov/">Denis Volkov</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">At present, Vladimir Putin’s political regime seems stable and solid. The president himself enjoys the approval of some 80 percent of the population. Approval of the government’s performance has also remained high, as the Kremlin has proved rather effective in dealing with the current economic... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/denis-volkov-russia-of-the-mid-2020s-breakdown-of-the-political-order/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-74741" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/evgeny-vodichev-russian-innovation-system-on-a-decaying-trajectory-a-case-study-of-the-novosibirsk-region/" itemprop="name">Russian Innovation System on a Decaying Trajectory: A Case Study of the Novosibirsk Region</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:21 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/evgeny-vodichev/">Evgeny Vodichev</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">This paper analyzes and projects the most likely future of the Russian innovation system based on a case study of the regional innovation system (RIS) of the Novosibirsk region. Using SWOT and PEST analyses to identify strengths and weaknesses of RIS, as well development trends,... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/evgeny-vodichev-russian-innovation-system-on-a-decaying-trajectory-a-case-study-of-the-novosibirsk-region/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-74648" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/alexander-sungurov-russia-in-decline-possible-scenarios/" itemprop="name">Russia in Decline: Possible Scenarios</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:19 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/alexander-sungurov/">Alexander Sungurov</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">It is important to note at the beginning that the majority of Russian officials, as well as the majority of Russian people more generally, do not think that contemporary Russia is in decline. To the contrary, they believe that it is a state with the... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/alexander-sungurov-russia-in-decline-possible-scenarios/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7822" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/%d0%b0ndrei-piontkovsky-life-after-decline/" itemprop="name">Life After Decline</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:18 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/andrei-piontkovsky/">Andrei Piontkovsky</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">On August 1, 1991, following a cordial meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev in Moscow, US President George H. W. Bush arrived in Kyiv to deliver what later became known as the Chicken Kiev Speech to the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Bush warned... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/%d0%b0ndrei-piontkovsky-life-after-decline/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7783" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/nikolay-petrov-what-does-russias-decline-look-like/" itemprop="name">What Does Russia’s Decline Look Like?</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:16 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/nikolay-petrov/">Nikolay Petrov</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">Prior to 2014, there were expectations that Russia’s probable decline would happen as an Argentina-type scenario of steady sagging/decay. This looked rational in economic terms, but authorities—faced with political crises and basically unable to fix the problem of legitimacy following their electoral win in 2012—decided... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/nikolay-petrov-what-does-russias-decline-look-like/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7784" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/irina-pavlova-russias-decline-as-a-brave-re-stalinized-world/" itemprop="name">Russia’s Decline as a ‘Brave Re-Stalinized World’</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:14 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/75427/">Irina Pavlova</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">In my view, the most prominent feature of Russia’s decline has little to do with its struggling economy, runaway corruption, and poor governance; or even with its alarming demographic trends. It is about the process of re-Stalinization, which has dramatically defined and perpetrated the decay... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/irina-pavlova-russias-decline-as-a-brave-re-stalinized-world/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7821" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/vladimir-pastukhov-russia-today-three-horsemen-of-the-russian-apocalypse/" itemprop="name">Russia Today: Three Horsemen of the Russian Apocalypse</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:12 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/75426/">Vladimir Pastukhov</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">As early as in the late 1980s, academic Nikita Moiseev remarked that Russia was entering a period of dusk that could, in equal measure, turn into a dawn or a decline. Today, there is hardly anybody left outside the immediate “Kremlin circle” (or for that... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/vladimir-pastukhov-russia-today-three-horsemen-of-the-russian-apocalypse/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7785" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/vladislav-inozemtsev-russias-decline-predictions-and-recommendations/" itemprop="name">Russia’s Decline: Predictions and Recommendations</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:11 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/vladislav-inozemtsev/">Vladislav Inozemtsev</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">Whatever Russian leaders may insist when depicting their country’s regained greatness, Russia, seen in the longer run, is of course a declining power. Even a sketchy overview suggests this, for a variety of reasons. If one starts with geopolitical might, she or he will see... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/vladislav-inozemtsev-russias-decline-predictions-and-recommendations/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7786" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/pavel-felgenhauer-russias-future-a-stability-that-will-not-last-a-revolution-that-will-not-win/" itemprop="name">Russia’s Future: A Stability That Will Not Last, a Revolution That Will Not Win</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:10 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/pavel-felgenhauer/">Pavel Felgenhauer</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">The Russian economy is contracting, and household incomes are decreasing, but social and financial distress do not translate into sizable political or social protest. President Vladimir Putin continues to be popular, while opposition groups are marginalized and seemingly incapable of seriously threatening the formidable authoritarian... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/pavel-felgenhauer-russias-future-a-stability-that-will-not-last-a-revolution-that-will-not-win/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7787" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/anton-barbashin-russia-in-decline-three-possible-scenarios-for-the-future/" itemprop="name">Russia in Decline: Three Possible Scenarios for the Future</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">July 6, 2016 09:08 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/75425/">Anton Barbashin</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">It is widely believed that contemporary Russia’s decline started right after the annexation of Crimea, when, in the course of less than one week, the Kremlin almost irreversibly predetermined the future of the entire nation. By acting as an aggressor—breaking international law, bilateral and multilateral... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/anton-barbashin-russia-in-decline-three-possible-scenarios-for-the-future/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7788" class="row article-cpt" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Article"> <div class="column"> <header class="entry-header"> <h3 class="entry-title"><a href="/program/pavel-k-baev-military-force-a-driver-aggravating-russias-decline/" itemprop="name">Military Force: A Driver Aggravating Russia’s Decline</a></h3> <p class="entry-meta"> <span class="entry-date" itemprop="datePublished">June 27, 2016 06:04 PM</span> By: <span class="entry-author" itemprop="author"><a href="https://jamestown.org/analyst/pavel-k-baev/">Pavel K. Baev</a></span> </p> </header> <div class="entry-excerpt" itemprop="description">Looking into the remaining years of the 2010s, it is only too obvious that decline is set to be the dominant trend in Russia, and it is easy to predict that the trajectory will be neither smooth nor agreeable for this diminishing power and its... <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/pavel-k-baev-military-force-a-driver-aggravating-russias-decline/">MORE</a></div> </div> </article> </section> </div> <aside class="column medium-6 js-eh hide-for-print" role="complementary"> <div id="custom_html-3" class="widget_text widget widget_custom_html"><h3 class="widgettitle">Support Jamestown</h3><div class="textwidget custom-html-widget"><a href="https://jamestown.org/about-us/support-jamestown/" class="button expanded btn-subscribe">Donate</a></div></div><div id="text-7" class="widget widget_text"> <div class="textwidget"><a href="/about-us/subscribe/" class="button expanded btn-subscribe">Subscribe to Our 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} window.wfLogHumanRan = true; var wfscr = document.createElement('script'); wfscr.type = 'text/javascript'; wfscr.async = true; wfscr.src = url + '&r=' + Math.random(); (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(wfscr); for (var i = 0; i < evts.length; i++) { removeEvent(evts[i], logHuman); } }; for (var i = 0; i < evts.length; i++) { addEvent(evts[i], logHuman); } })('//jamestown.org/?wordfence_lh=1&hid=9E1ACD735104200778723FD6B9C18ABB'); </script><script data-cfasync="false" data-wpfc-render="false" type="text/javascript"> var monsterinsights_tracked_video_marks = {}; var monsterinsights_youtube_percentage_tracking_timeouts = {}; /* Works for YouTube and Vimeo */ function monsterinsights_media_get_id_for_iframe( source, service ) { var iframeUrlParts = source.split('?'); var stripedUrl = iframeUrlParts[0].split('/'); var videoId = stripedUrl[ stripedUrl.length - 1 ]; return service + '-player-' + videoId; } function monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( provider, event, label, parameters = {} ) { __gtagTracker('event', event, { event_category: 'video-' + provider, event_label: label, non_interaction: event === 'impression', ...parameters }); } function monsterinsights_media_maybe_record_video_progress( provider, label, videoId, videoParameters ) { var progressTrackingAllowedMarks = [10,25,50,75]; if ( typeof monsterinsights_tracked_video_marks[ videoId ] == 'undefined' ) { monsterinsights_tracked_video_marks[ videoId ] = []; } var { video_percent } = videoParameters; if ( progressTrackingAllowedMarks.includes( video_percent ) && !monsterinsights_tracked_video_marks[ videoId ].includes( video_percent ) ) { monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( provider, 'video_progress', label, videoParameters ); /* Prevent multiple records for the same percentage */ monsterinsights_tracked_video_marks[ videoId ].push( video_percent ); } } /* --- Vimeo --- */ var monsterinsights_media_vimeo_plays = {}; function monsterinsights_setup_vimeo_events_for_iframe(iframe, title, player) { var playerId = iframe.getAttribute('id'); var videoLabel = title || iframe.title || iframe.getAttribute('src'); if ( !playerId ) { playerId = monsterinsights_media_get_id_for_iframe( iframe.getAttribute('src'), 'vimeo' ); iframe.setAttribute( 'id', playerId ); } monsterinsights_media_vimeo_plays[playerId] = 0; var videoParameters = { video_provider: 'vimeo', video_title: title, video_url: iframe.getAttribute('src') }; /** * Record Impression **/ monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( 'vimeo', 'impression', videoLabel, videoParameters ); /** * Record video start **/ player.on('play', function(data) { let playerId = this.element.id; if ( monsterinsights_media_vimeo_plays[playerId] === 0 ) { monsterinsights_media_vimeo_plays[playerId]++; videoParameters.video_duration = data.duration; videoParameters.video_current_time = data.seconds; videoParameters.video_percent = 0; monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( 'vimeo', 'video_start', videoLabel, videoParameters ); } }); /** * Record video progress **/ player.on('timeupdate', function(data) { var progress = Math.floor(data.percent * 100); videoParameters.video_duration = data.duration; videoParameters.video_current_time = data.seconds; videoParameters.video_percent = progress; monsterinsights_media_maybe_record_video_progress( 'vimeo', videoLabel, playerId, videoParameters ); }); /** * Record video complete **/ player.on('ended', function(data) { videoParameters.video_duration = data.duration; videoParameters.video_current_time = data.seconds; videoParameters.video_percent = 100; monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( 'vimeo', 'video_complete', videoLabel, videoParameters ); }); } function monsterinsights_on_vimeo_load() { var vimeoIframes = document.querySelectorAll("iframe[src*='vimeo']"); vimeoIframes.forEach(function( iframe ) { // Set up the player var player = new Vimeo.Player(iframe); // The getVideoTitle function returns a promise player.getVideoTitle().then(function(title) { /* * Binding the events inside this callback guarantees that we * always have the correct title for the video */ monsterinsights_setup_vimeo_events_for_iframe(iframe, title, player) }); }); } function monsterinsights_media_init_vimeo_events() { var vimeoIframes = document.querySelectorAll("iframe[src*='vimeo']"); if ( vimeoIframes.length ) { /* Maybe load Vimeo API */ if ( window.Vimeo === undefined ) { var tag = document.createElement("script"); tag.src = "https://player.vimeo.com/api/player.js"; tag.setAttribute("onload", "monsterinsights_on_vimeo_load()"); document.body.append(tag); } else { /* Vimeo API already loaded, invoke callback */ monsterinsights_on_vimeo_load(); } } } /* --- End Vimeo --- */ /* --- YouTube --- */ function monsterinsights_media_on_youtube_load() { var monsterinsights_media_youtube_plays = {}; function __onPlayerReady(event) { monsterinsights_media_youtube_plays[event.target.h.id] = 0; var videoParameters = { video_provider: 'youtube', video_title: event.target.videoTitle, video_url: event.target.playerInfo.videoUrl }; monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( 'youtube', 'impression', videoParameters.video_title, videoParameters ); } /** * Record progress callback **/ function __track_youtube_video_progress( player, videoLabel, videoParameters ) { var { playerInfo } = player; var playerId = player.h.id; var duration = playerInfo.duration; /* player.getDuration(); */ var currentTime = playerInfo.currentTime; /* player.getCurrentTime(); */ var percentage = (currentTime / duration) * 100; var progress = Math.floor(percentage); videoParameters.video_duration = duration; videoParameters.video_current_time = currentTime; videoParameters.video_percent = progress; monsterinsights_media_maybe_record_video_progress( 'youtube', videoLabel, playerId, videoParameters ); } function __youtube_on_state_change( event ) { var state = event.data; var player = event.target; var { playerInfo } = player; var playerId = player.h.id; var videoParameters = { video_provider: 'youtube', video_title: player.videoTitle, video_url: playerInfo.videoUrl }; /** * YouTube's API doesn't offer a progress or timeupdate event. * We have to track progress manually by asking the player for the current time, every X milliseconds, using an interval **/ if ( state === YT.PlayerState.PLAYING) { if ( monsterinsights_media_youtube_plays[playerId] === 0 ) { monsterinsights_media_youtube_plays[playerId]++; /** * Record video start **/ videoParameters.video_duration = playerInfo.duration; videoParameters.video_current_time = playerInfo.currentTime; videoParameters.video_percent = 0; monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( 'youtube', 'video_start', videoParameters.video_title, videoParameters ); } monsterinsights_youtube_percentage_tracking_timeouts[ playerId ] = setInterval( __track_youtube_video_progress, 500, player, videoParameters.video_title, videoParameters ); } else if ( state === YT.PlayerState.PAUSED ) { /* When the video is paused clear the interval */ clearInterval( monsterinsights_youtube_percentage_tracking_timeouts[ playerId ] ); } else if ( state === YT.PlayerState.ENDED ) { /** * Record video complete **/ videoParameters.video_duration = playerInfo.duration; videoParameters.video_current_time = playerInfo.currentTime; videoParameters.video_percent = 100; monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( 'youtube', 'video_complete', videoParameters.video_title, videoParameters ); clearInterval( monsterinsights_youtube_percentage_tracking_timeouts[ playerId ] ); } } var youtubeIframes = document.querySelectorAll("iframe[src*='youtube'],iframe[src*='youtu.be']"); youtubeIframes.forEach(function( iframe ) { var playerId = iframe.getAttribute('id'); if ( !playerId ) { playerId = monsterinsights_media_get_id_for_iframe( iframe.getAttribute('src'), 'youtube' ); iframe.setAttribute( 'id', playerId ); } new YT.Player(playerId, { events: { onReady: __onPlayerReady, onStateChange: __youtube_on_state_change } }); }); } function monsterinsights_media_load_youtube_api() { if ( window.YT ) { return; } var youtubeIframes = document.querySelectorAll("iframe[src*='youtube'],iframe[src*='youtu.be']"); if ( 0 === youtubeIframes.length ) { return; } var tag = document.createElement("script"); tag.src = "https://www.youtube.com/iframe_api"; var firstScriptTag = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; firstScriptTag.parentNode.insertBefore(tag, firstScriptTag); } function monsterinsights_media_init_youtube_events() { /* YouTube always looks for a function called onYouTubeIframeAPIReady */ window.onYouTubeIframeAPIReady = monsterinsights_media_on_youtube_load; } /* --- End YouTube --- */ /* --- HTML Videos --- */ function monsterinsights_media_init_html_video_events() { var monsterinsights_media_html_plays = {}; var videos = document.querySelectorAll('video'); var videosCount = 0; videos.forEach(function( video ) { var videoLabel = video.title; if ( !videoLabel ) { var videoCaptionEl = video.nextElementSibling; if ( videoCaptionEl && videoCaptionEl.nodeName.toLowerCase() === 'figcaption' ) { videoLabel = videoCaptionEl.textContent; } else { videoLabel = video.getAttribute('src'); } } var videoTitle = videoLabel; var playerId = video.getAttribute('id'); if ( !playerId ) { playerId = 'html-player-' + videosCount; video.setAttribute('id', playerId); } monsterinsights_media_html_plays[playerId] = 0 var videoSrc = video.getAttribute('src') if ( ! videoSrc && video.currentSrc ) { videoSrc = video.currentSrc; } var videoParameters = { video_provider: 'html', video_title: videoTitle ? videoTitle : videoSrc, video_url: videoSrc, }; /** * Record Impression **/ monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( 'html', 'impression', videoLabel, videoParameters ); /** * Record video start **/ video.addEventListener('play', function(event) { let playerId = event.target.id; if ( monsterinsights_media_html_plays[playerId] === 0 ) { monsterinsights_media_html_plays[playerId]++; videoParameters.video_duration = video.duration; videoParameters.video_current_time = video.currentTime; videoParameters.video_percent = 0; monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( 'html', 'video_start', videoLabel, videoParameters ); } }, false ); /** * Record video progress **/ video.addEventListener('timeupdate', function() { var percentage = (video.currentTime / video.duration) * 100; var progress = Math.floor(percentage); videoParameters.video_duration = video.duration; videoParameters.video_current_time = video.currentTime; videoParameters.video_percent = progress; monsterinsights_media_maybe_record_video_progress( 'html', videoLabel, playerId, videoParameters ); }, false ); /** * Record video complete **/ video.addEventListener('ended', function() { var percentage = (video.currentTime / video.duration) * 100; var progress = Math.floor(percentage); videoParameters.video_duration = video.duration; videoParameters.video_current_time = video.currentTime; videoParameters.video_percent = progress; monsterinsights_media_record_video_event( 'html', 'video_complete', videoLabel, videoParameters ); }, false ); videosCount++; }); } /* --- End HTML Videos --- */ function monsterinsights_media_init_video_events() { /** * HTML Video - Attach events & record impressions */ monsterinsights_media_init_html_video_events(); /** * Vimeo - Attach events & record impressions */ monsterinsights_media_init_vimeo_events(); monsterinsights_media_load_youtube_api(); } /* Attach events */ function monsterinsights_media_load() { if ( typeof(__gtagTracker) === 'undefined' ) { setTimeout(monsterinsights_media_load, 200); return; } if ( document.readyState === "complete" ) { // Need this for cookie plugin. monsterinsights_media_init_video_events(); } else if ( window.addEventListener ) { window.addEventListener( "load", monsterinsights_media_init_video_events, false ); } else if ( window.attachEvent ) { window.attachEvent( "onload", monsterinsights_media_init_video_events); } /** * YouTube - Attach events & record impressions. * We don't need to attach this into page load event * because we already use YT function "onYouTubeIframeAPIReady" * and this will help on using onReady event with the player instantiation. */ monsterinsights_media_init_youtube_events(); } monsterinsights_media_load(); </script><script type='text/javascript'> (function () { var c = document.body.className; c = c.replace(/woocommerce-no-js/, 'woocommerce-js'); document.body.className = c; })(); </script><script type="text/javascript"> /* MonsterInsights Scroll Tracking */ if ( typeof(jQuery) !== 'undefined' ) { jQuery( document ).ready(function(){ function monsterinsights_scroll_tracking_load() { if ( ( typeof(__gaTracker) !== 'undefined' && __gaTracker && __gaTracker.hasOwnProperty( "loaded" ) && __gaTracker.loaded == true ) || ( typeof(__gtagTracker) !== 'undefined' && __gtagTracker ) ) { (function(factory) { factory(jQuery); }(function($) { /* Scroll Depth */ "use strict"; var defaults = { percentage: true }; var $window = $(window), cache = [], scrollEventBound = false, lastPixelDepth = 0; /* * Plugin */ $.scrollDepth = function(options) { var startTime = +new Date(); options = $.extend({}, defaults, options); /* * Functions */ function sendEvent(action, label, scrollDistance, timing) { if ( 'undefined' === typeof MonsterInsightsObject || 'undefined' === typeof MonsterInsightsObject.sendEvent ) { return; } var paramName = action.toLowerCase(); var fieldsArray = { send_to: 'G-2VJF54ND2K', non_interaction: true }; fieldsArray[paramName] = label; if (arguments.length > 3) { fieldsArray.scroll_timing = timing MonsterInsightsObject.sendEvent('event', 'scroll_depth', fieldsArray); } else { MonsterInsightsObject.sendEvent('event', 'scroll_depth', fieldsArray); } } function calculateMarks(docHeight) { return { '25%' : parseInt(docHeight * 0.25, 10), '50%' : parseInt(docHeight * 0.50, 10), '75%' : parseInt(docHeight * 0.75, 10), /* Cushion to trigger 100% event in iOS */ '100%': docHeight - 5 }; } function checkMarks(marks, scrollDistance, timing) { /* Check each active mark */ $.each(marks, function(key, val) { if ( $.inArray(key, cache) === -1 && scrollDistance >= val ) { sendEvent('Percentage', key, scrollDistance, timing); cache.push(key); } }); } function rounded(scrollDistance) { /* Returns String */ return (Math.floor(scrollDistance/250) * 250).toString(); } function init() { bindScrollDepth(); } /* * Public Methods */ /* Reset Scroll Depth with the originally initialized options */ $.scrollDepth.reset = function() { cache = []; lastPixelDepth = 0; $window.off('scroll.scrollDepth'); bindScrollDepth(); }; /* Add DOM elements to be tracked */ $.scrollDepth.addElements = function(elems) { if (typeof elems == "undefined" || !$.isArray(elems)) { return; } $.merge(options.elements, elems); /* If scroll event has been unbound from window, rebind */ if (!scrollEventBound) { bindScrollDepth(); } }; /* Remove DOM elements currently tracked */ $.scrollDepth.removeElements = function(elems) { if (typeof elems == "undefined" || !$.isArray(elems)) { return; 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} return result; }; } /* * Scroll Event */ function bindScrollDepth() { scrollEventBound = true; $window.on('scroll.scrollDepth', throttle(function() { /* * We calculate document and window height on each scroll event to * account for dynamic DOM changes. */ var docHeight = $(document).height(), winHeight = window.innerHeight ? window.innerHeight : $window.height(), scrollDistance = $window.scrollTop() + winHeight, /* Recalculate percentage marks */ marks = calculateMarks(docHeight), /* Timing */ timing = +new Date - startTime; checkMarks(marks, scrollDistance, timing); }, 500)); } init(); }; /* UMD export */ return $.scrollDepth; })); jQuery.scrollDepth(); } else { setTimeout(monsterinsights_scroll_tracking_load, 200); } } monsterinsights_scroll_tracking_load(); }); } /* End MonsterInsights Scroll Tracking */ </script><script data-handles='wp-hooks' type='text/javascript' src='https://jamestown.org/wp-includes/js/dist/hooks.min.js?m=1734669229'></script><script type="text/javascript" src="/wp-includes/js/dist/i18n.min.js?ver=5e580eb46a90c2b997e6" id="wp-i18n-js"></script><script type="text/javascript" id="wp-i18n-js-after"> /* <![CDATA[ */ wp.i18n.setLocaleData( { 'text direction\u0004ltr': [ 'ltr' ] } ); 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