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width="580" alt=""/> <p class="img-caption"> The Chinese government plans to slash steel production by up to 150 million tons, which could mean as many as 400,000 jobs lost, according to state estimates. (Getty Images) </p> </div> </div> <div class="article-box detail"> <div class="wysiwyg_area"> <div class="articleBodyText"> <p>The steel industry is once again in crisis. Led by China, global steelmaking capacity has doubled in the past 15 years, while demand has slumped. The consequences in many countries are falling prices, idled production, bankruptcies and job losses.</p><div class="object-left"> <div class="object-left fb"> <div class="object-left"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_113993"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505041758im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/magazine/20160505/20160505_steeel/4420027-2-eng-GB/20160505_steeel_middle_320.jpg" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"> Tata Steel is selling its Port Talbot steelworks in Wales. <span class="img-credit"> © Reuters </span> </p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_113993"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505041758im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/magazine/20160505/20160505_steeel/4420027-2-eng-GB/20160505_steeel_article_main_image.jpg" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area"> Tata Steel is selling its Port Talbot steelworks in Wales. <span class="img-credit"> © Reuters </span> </p> </div> </div> </div> </div><p> The OECD club of developed economies hosted a high-level meeting on April 18 with China and other major steel producers, but the gathering failed to agree on measures to tackle excess capacity amid arguments over who was to blame.</p><div class="page_limit free"></div><div class="page_limit"></div><p>Protectionist wars are already breaking out. The U.S. has imposed a slew of anti-dumping orders restricting steel imports from Asia, Europe and Latin America. Europe has limited some steel imports and is considering more curbs. China recently slapped tariffs on a smaller category of European steel imports.</p><p><b>SAME OLD STORY</b>   A 1988 book "Steel and the State: Government Intervention and Steel's Structural Crisis" noted in its opening chapter that the industry had faced "a crisis of overcapacity" since the mid-1970s. That overcapacity was a consequence, the authors argued, of "pervasive intervention by governments in the market" -- in particular large subsidies to steel mills that resulted in production far in excess of what the market would otherwise dictate.</p><p>Today, China is by far the worst offender. In 2000, the U.S. and China produced about the same amount of steel -- 135 million tons in the U.S. and 165 million tons in China. Since then, China has added an extraordinary 990 million tons of steelmaking capacity -- more steel than the entire world was consuming in 2000. This was not driven by market opportunities but rather by government subsidies aimed at pumping up the economy through investment and job creation. China's major steel companies reportedly lost nearly $10 billion last year and are groaning under their debt load. Other countries, including South Korea, Turkey and India, have also boosted production. U.S. steel capacity fell over the same period, as did Europe's.</p><p>If the U.S., Japan, the European Union, India, Turkey, Russia, South Korea and Brazil all stopped making steel tomorrow, there would still be enough to supply the global market.</p><p>One of the reasons free trade is under such attack in the U.S. and some other countries is that the classic free trade argument -- that the market will sort this mess out to everyone's benefit -- simply does not hold true in such a distorted sector. If nothing is done, some of the most efficient steel plants in the world will go under and the heavily subsidized, unprofitable ones in China and elsewhere will survive.</p><p>But the classic U.S. and European response -- to throw up trade barriers in the form of anti-dumping tariffs -- is not terribly helpful either. Temporary tariffs can give some breathing room to their steel industries. But they come too late, often when the companies are teetering on the verge of bankruptcy. And breathing room for what? If there is no big reduction in steel capacity worldwide, the problem will either be shuffled off to other countries or will re-emerge when the tariffs expire.</p><p>The only effective solution is to follow the OECD prescription and negotiate an international agreement in which steel-producing nations agree to an orderly, shared reduction in capacity to balance supply and demand better. Such a deal is almost impossibly difficult to reach. Steel-producing nations tried this seriously once before. In the early 1990s, the OECD hosted talks on a "Multilateral Steel Agreement (MSA)," but the politics were simply too hard. "Reducing capacity" is a lovely euphemism for shutting factories and firing steelworkers, and few countries wanted to sign on.</p><p>And the scale of the problem was much smaller in the 1990s. Today, China has said it might be willing to cut steel capacity by 10% or so, but even if Beijing did trim output, it would be a token gesture given the scale of the problem.</p><div class="page_break auto free"></div><div class="page_break auto"></div><p>Yet there seems little choice but to try again to craft such a deal, despite the failure of the recent OECD meeting. The alternative -- an escalating global trade war in a vital industrial sector -- would be harmful to every country involved.</p><p><i>Edward Alden is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., specializing in U.S. economic competitiveness. A former Washington bureau chief for the Financial Times, his work focuses on immigration and trade policy.</i></p> </div> </div> <div id="modal-screen_zoom"></div> </div> <div class="pagination no-border"></div> <div class="mgzNextArticleBoxWrap "> <div class="mnabL"> <a href="/web/20160505041758/http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20160505-DEMOCRACY-DEFERRED/Viewpoints/Damjan-DeNoble-Vietnam-s-vaccine-woes-fueled-by-a-broken-health-care-system">prev link</a> <div class="mnabImg"> <img src="/web/20160505041758im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2014/201412/20141205/20141205_damjan-denoble/1753787-3-eng-GB/20141205_Damjan-DeNoble_small_thumbnail.jpg" width="80" alt=""/> </div> <div class="mnabTxt"> <h4>Viewpoints</h4> Damjan DeNoble: Vietnam's vaccine woes fueled by a broken health care system </div> </div> <div class="mnabR"> <a 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