Mysteel月报：2月全国型钢价格或将先扬后抑运行为主-我的钢铁网

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style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>成品材均价（以16#槽钢均价为例）下跌31元/吨，价格整体呈现震荡下跌走势。基本面来看，供应端压力月环比减轻，需求端淡季低迷，供需维持双弱的格局，盘面主要受原材料走势和宏观政策影响下震荡下行。展望2月份，伴随春节假期的到来，市场预计会有半个月左右的休市时间，在今年市场贸易商冬储量减少的背景下，2月份全国型钢价格将如何运行？下面笔者从以下几个角度来分析2月全国型钢价格走势。</p> <p><strong>一、1月份型钢市场回顾</strong></p> <p><strong>1</strong><strong>、1月份型钢价格呈现震荡下跌走势</strong></p> <p>图1：2022-2024年国内型钢均价走势图</p> <p align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 311.415px;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/02/674abee621a2458fa25b3a19b69866f0.png" width="600" height="311" /></p> <p>1月份型钢价格呈现震荡下跌走势，月环比价格下跌30元/吨左右。市场方面，由于受到资金短缺和季节性淡季影响，市场现货成交一直不见起色，库存资源出货受阻，贸易商多采取低库存低售来维持价快进快出的操作，交投清淡的氛围让贸易商冬储信心不足；库存方面，市场逢低少量补货操作，所以市场低价资源一直存在，导致现货成交价格和钢厂新到货成本相比，利润微薄甚至轻微倒挂，无法批量拿货，所以导致市场库存始终维持偏低水平；下游方面，工地在月中旬陆续停工放假，受到资金短缺和春节放假等因素影响，下游工程拿货情况不佳，多回款为主。1月份整体上供需双弱，成品材价格跟随期货盘面小幅波动。</p> <p><strong>2</strong><strong>、区域价差</strong></p> <p>图2：2022-2024年南北型钢价差走势图</p> <p align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 315.987px;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/02/4fd1c3c75b034c3585a3415b471bc44b.png" width="600" height="315" />     </p> <p>从南北价差走势图来看，1月份型钢南北区域价继续收窄。截止2月2日最新数据，乐从18#工字钢4120元/吨，唐山18#工字钢3990元/吨，南北价差130元/吨，这个价差的情况下，北方型材难以南下流入市场。主要原因还是南方地区以CJ为代表的长流程钢厂及江苏的部分调坯轧钢厂今年新投入产能目前也已正常生产，其产品已经逐步流入江苏、福建、广东、上海、西南等市场，价格成本比北材有优势，而集中出现的新增产能也导致的南方供需矛盾的加剧，市场竞争下价格易跌难涨。</p> <p><strong>3</strong><strong>、1月环比工角槽供应上升 </strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010705-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>H型钢</a><strong>供应下降</strong></p> <p>图3：2020-2024年全国工角槽产量走势图</p> <p align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 363.589px;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/02/d8981fa51ad14b3a8b222400b8e5a4c8.png" width="600" height="363" /></p> <p>图4：2020-2024年全国H型钢产量走势图</p> <p align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 363.424px;" src="//img04.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/02/28c68ee61530446a810f1e24b6ab1a83.png" width="600" height="363" /></p> <p>从供应情况来看，华北地区调坯轧钢厂近期由于钢坯下跌幅度较大，利润有所改善，加上一月份前三周唐山工角槽成交不错，成品产量有所走高，主要影响到工角槽品种。而长流程钢厂受<a href='https://tks.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石</a>、<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0501-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>焦炭</a>等成本影响较大，利润改善不明显，代理商多协议户模式，拿货较为稳定，所以H型钢品种整体供应量反而小幅降低。</p> <p><strong>二、2月份</strong>型钢<strong>市场展望</strong></p> <p><strong>1</strong><strong>、2月型钢产能利用率将继续回落</strong></p> <p>图5:2022-2023年工角槽及H型钢产能利用率走势图</p> <p align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 356.124px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/02/a84d8ee4e2ab4382b2fd8627b5f5ec98.png" width="600" height="356" /></p> <p align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 347.848px;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/02/46fd67220a4c4c3db8c4c3d7aa20ecb5.png" width="600" height="347" /></p> <p>从供应情况来看，钢厂端产能利用率在下行趋势中，目前处于中等偏低水平。在今年不断有钢厂转型以及新增型钢产能的背景下，当前的产能过剩矛盾愈发突出，钢铁原材料供需格局则强于成材，且在成品材需求疲弱的大环境下，原料端推涨作用消减为支撑作用，型钢企业利润微薄。临近出春节，全国各地调坯型钢厂陆续出现停产检修计划，长流程钢厂减产计划也陆续出现，预计2月份供应将继续呈现回落状态</p> <p><strong>2</strong><strong>、下游钢结构情绪指数有所回升</strong></p> <p>图6：2022-2024年钢结构市场情绪指数</p> <p align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 330.816px;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/02/3acd61687ca044aa91b6e86373a4db76.png" width="600" height="330" /></p> <p>钢结构市场情绪指数调研显示，截止至1月26日，下游钢构厂情绪指数为50.62%，目前下游钢构厂内库存原料充足，暂无补库意向。步入2月份，受春节放假影响，全国各地贸易商及下游基本已经休市停工，节后需求恢复需要一定时间，需求预期边际变差，节后市场活力等待政策进一步刺激。</p> <p><strong>3</strong><strong>、总结</strong></p> <p>春节假期临近，今年市场整体放假时间比往年早一些，主要是工地资金不足、回款不畅等因素影响下，很多工程项目早已停工，现货市场交投氛围清淡。今年冬储价格位置偏高，钢厂冬储政策力度不大，冬储风险大，贸易商冬储意愿普遍较低。总体上，在宏观政策炒作下预计节后惯性推涨一波，后随着高库存、低需求的基本面，价格承压下行，预计2月型钢价格或将先扬后抑运行为主，幅度不大。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：闫明远 021-26093700 </br> 资讯监督：陈业亮 021-26094230 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> 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