In the US-China trade war, how did some “bystander” countries come out ahead?

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href="/"><span>Home</span></a> <div class="menu__item-seperator"> <i class="fal fa-chevron-right"></i> </div> </li> <li class="menu__item menu__item--1"> <a href="https://egc.yale.edu/research"><span>Research</span></a> <div class="menu__item-seperator"> <i class="fal fa-chevron-right"></i> </div> </li> <li class="menu__item menu__item--2"> In The US-China Trade War, How Did Some “bystander” Countries Come Out Ahead? </li> </ol> </nav> </div> <div class="site-header__book-return"> <a href="/" aria-label="Back to Economic Growth Center homepage"> <i class="fal fa-arrow-left"></i><span>EGC Home</span> </a> </div> </div> </header> <main class="site-main"> <div class="site-main__system"></div> <div class="region-content"> <div data-drupal-messages-fallback class="hidden"></div><div id="block-egc-content"> <article class="node node--publication node--full color-scheme-egc-black node--no-banner-image node--has-page-image" data-js="node-publication"> <header class="node__header" data-js="node-header"> <div class="node__header-content-wrapper"> <div class="node__header-content"> <div class="node__heading-prefix"> Research Summary </div> <h1 class="node__heading"> In the US-China trade war, how did some “bystander” countries come out ahead? </h1> <div class="node__page-image"> <figure role="group" class="media media--image media--page-image"> <picture> <source media="all and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/webp" data-srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_medium/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.webp?h=e75ab034&itok=llAAO2zt 1x, /sites/default/files/styles/landscape_large/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.webp?h=e75ab034&itok=Z0uGCAjm 2x"/> <source media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/webp" data-srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_small/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.webp?h=e75ab034&itok=ZGEWVeQO 1x, /sites/default/files/styles/landscape_medium/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.webp?h=e75ab034&itok=llAAO2zt 2x"/> <source type="image/webp" data-srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_small/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.webp?h=e75ab034&itok=ZGEWVeQO 1x"/> <source media="all and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/jpeg" data-srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_medium/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.jpg?h=e75ab034&itok=llAAO2zt 1x, /sites/default/files/styles/landscape_large/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.jpg?h=e75ab034&itok=Z0uGCAjm 2x"/> <source media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/jpeg" data-srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_small/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.jpg?h=e75ab034&itok=ZGEWVeQO 1x, /sites/default/files/styles/landscape_medium/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.jpg?h=e75ab034&itok=llAAO2zt 2x"/> <source type="image/jpeg" data-srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_small/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.jpg?h=e75ab034&itok=ZGEWVeQO 1x"/> <img class="page_image lazyload" width="720" height="500" alt="A top-down photo showing traffic at an international port in Ho Chi Minh City" loading="lazy" data-src="/sites/default/files/styles/landscape_medium/public/2024-11/International%20port%2C%20Ho%20Chi%20Minh%20City%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Tieu%20Bao%20Truong%2C%20Shutterstock%20med%20res.jpg?h=e75ab034&itok=llAAO2zt" typeof="foaf:Image" /> </picture> <figcaption class="media__figcaption"> <cite class="media__credit"> Tieu Bao Truong, Shutterstock</cite> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="node__content"> <div class="node__publication-summary"> In a recent paper, EGC affiliates Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Amit Khandelwal, and coauthors explore how some lower-income countries benefited from the US-China trade war. They find that these countries increased their exports of tariffed goods not only to the US and China — filling gaps left by these two warring trade partners — but also to the rest of the world. </div> <div class="node__publication-metadata"> <div class="node__publication-metadata-label">Author(s)</div> <div class="node__publication-metadata-value"> <a href="/publications/author/Pablo%20Fajgelbaum"><span>Pablo Fajgelbaum</span></a>, <a href="/people/pinelopi-goldberg" hreflang="en"><span>Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg</span></a>, <a href="/publications/author/Patrick%20Kennedy"><span>Patrick Kennedy</span></a>, <a href="/people/amit-khandelwal" hreflang="en"><span>Amit Khandelwal</span></a> & <a href="/publications/author/Daria%20Taglioni"><span>Daria Taglioni</span></a></div> <div class="node__publication-metadata-label">Publication Link</div> <div class="node__publication-metadata-value node__publication-metadata-value--publication-link"> <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aeri.20230094&from=f">https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aeri.20230094&from=f</a></div> <div class="node__publication-metadata-label">Publication Date</div> <div class="node__publication-metadata-value"> June 2024</div> </div> <div class="node__sections"> <section class="layout--margin-bottom-md layout layout--one-column"> <div class="layout__regions"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--content"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--html-content paragraph--default" id="paragraph-html-content-262392" data-js="html-content"> <div class="paragraph__body"> <p>Recent years have seen globalization evolve in response to shifting trade dynamics and increasing geopolitical uncertainties – including, since 2018, a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Rather than triggering an overall decline in global trade, however, these trends are transforming global trade patterns. Most notably, trade is reorienting away from the United States and China as other nations adapt to emerging opportunities and challenges. What are the key dynamics and broader implications for these “bystander” countries to the US-China trade war? </p> <p>New research by EGC affiliates Pinelopi (Penny) Koujianou Goldberg and Amit Khandelwal (with coauthors) in the <em>American Economic Review: Insights </em>explores these issues and their ripple effects. Analyzing recent global trade data, their study reveals how bystander countries have seized opportunities during the trade war to boost their global exports of goods subject to tariffs by the United States and China. Most notably, they find that countries with exports that are substitutes for products targeted by US and Chinese tariffs saw significant growth – particularly countries with greater ability to rapidly boost production in those products – while countries with complementary exports saw smaller gains. The study highlights that despite increased trade uncertainty during the trade war, global trade did not collapse; it shifted from the United States and China to other countries, signaling a transformation in globalization rather than its end. </p> </div> </div> <div class="paragraph paragraph--results-at-a-glance paragraph--default" id="paragraph-results-at-a-glance-262393" data-js="results-at-a-glance"> <h3 class="paragraph__title">Results</h3> <span class="paragraph__subtitle">At a Glance</span> <ul class="paragraph__results-items-list"> <li class="paragraph__results-item"> <div><p>During the US-China trade war, the rise in exports of tariffed goods by "bystander" countries was large enough to offset the collapse of trade between the United States and China. </p></div> </li> <li class="paragraph__results-item"> <div><p>On average, exports of tariffed goods from bystander countries increased to the US, changed only marginally to China, and increased to the rest of the world – resulting in a net increase in trade, rather than just shifting trade across destinations. </p></div> </li> <li class="paragraph__results-item"> <div><p>Export growth in targeted products varied significantly across countries, with countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Korea, and Mexico emerging as major beneficiaries. </p></div> </li> <li class="paragraph__results-item"> <div><p>Differences across countries and sectors in export growth for targeted products are mostly due to supply elasticities (or the ability to rapidly boost production of specific products in response to tariffs), along with the size of trade flows and pre-war specialization patterns. </p></div> </li> <li class="paragraph__results-item"> <div><p>Of these factors, an estimated 75.8 percent of the variation in export growth across countries was driven by country-specific factors. </p></div> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="paragraph paragraph--html-content paragraph--default" id="paragraph-html-content-262394" data-js="html-content"> <header class="advanced-header-field advanced-header-field--heading-tag-h3"> <h3 id="heading-html_content-262394" class="advanced-header-field__heading"> Tensions for some, opportunities for others </h3> </header> <div class="paragraph__body"> <p>In 2018 and 2019, the United States and China sparked a trade war by imposing tariffs on approximately $450 billion worth of goods. This disrupted the decades-long trend toward reduced global trade barriers and notably decreased direct trade between the two countries, a trend that continues today. However, the conflict also created unexpected opportunities for bystander countries not directly involved in the US-China conflict, many of which seized the opportunity to by boost their exports of the tariffed products to the US, China, and other markets. </p> <p>Which bystander countries benefited from the US-China trade war, why, and how? In our globally connected world, the answers to these questions depend on a complex interplay of trade dynamics and economic forces. In their new study, Penny Goldberg, the Elihu Professor of Economics and Global Affairs, and Amit Khandelwal, the Dong-Soo Hahn Professor of Global Affairs and Economics – along with coauthors Pablo Fajgelbaum, Patrick Kennedy, and Daria Taglioni – shed light on these issues, analyzing detailed trade data to investigate the ways in which some bystander countries benefited from the US-China trade war. </p> <p>“When the US-China trade tensions escalated, some countries were euphoric because they thought, this is our chance,” Goldberg said in an EGC interview. “We can actually fill the space, the void left by China. So there was this incredible optimism among some, among others, that was great anxiety.” </p> </div> </div> <div class="paragraph paragraph--html-content paragraph--default" id="paragraph-html-content-262395" data-js="html-content"> <header class="advanced-header-field advanced-header-field--heading-tag-h3"> <h3 id="heading-html_content-262395" class="advanced-header-field__heading"> Modeling a trade war </h3> </header> <div class="paragraph__body"> <p>To conduct their analysis, Goldberg, Khandelwal, and their coauthors began by developing an economic model to better understand how the complex dynamics of global trade were affected by the US-China trade war. On the demand side of the model, they estimated how global demand for a large number of traded goods was influenced by the imposition of tariffs – which depends on factors like prices and whether a particular good is a substitute or complement for the products targeted by US and China tariffs. On the supply side, the model incorporates trade costs and tariffs for each exporting country and tariffed product. This setup made it possible to estimate bystander countries’ export responses to US and Chinese tariffs. </p> <p>To build and refine their model, the researchers analyzed more than 5,000 product categories using UN Comtrade data from 2014 to 2019, a period that straddled the onset of the US-China trade war. They focused their analysis on major exporting countries (excluding oil exporters). Once exports from the US and China were excluded, the dataset covered approximately 71% of all non-oil global trade. Then they examined export trends to three destination categories – the US, China, and all other countries – across nine sectors: agriculture, apparel, chemicals, materials, machinery, metals, minerals, transport, and “miscellaneous.” </p> <p>The authors’ tariff data reflected substantial country and sectoral variation following the onset of the trade war in 2018. The US raised tariffs significantly on Chinese machinery and metals, for example, and China raised tariffs on the US across a number of sectors – while reducing them for non-US partners. </p> </div> </div> <div class="paragraph paragraph--html-content paragraph--default" id="paragraph-html-content-262396" data-js="html-content"> <header class="advanced-header-field advanced-header-field--heading-tag-h3"> <h3 id="heading-html_content-262396" class="advanced-header-field__heading"> Main findings </h3> </header> <div class="paragraph__body"> <p>At a high level, one of the study’s key findings was that the US-China trade war's impacts on bystander countries hinged on whether a country’s exports acted as substitutes for (i.e., interchangeable) or complements to (i.e., used together with) the products targeted by US and Chinese tariffs. Also important was the concept of “supply elasticity” – or how quickly countries could expand production of the tariffed products. Countries with substitute exports <em>and </em>the capability to rapidly increase production of those substitutes saw substantial export growth, whereas countries with complementary exports saw smaller gains. </p> <p>These dynamics show up in the trade data. On average, the researchers find that bystander countries increased their exports in tariffed products by 6.4 percent – and the rise in their global exports was large enough to offset the collapse of trade between the United States and China. On average, bystanders increased their exports to the United States, barely changed their exports to China, and <em>increased </em>their exports to the rest of the world in products with higher US-Chinese tariffs. These results show that the trade war created new trade opportunities for many countries, rather than just shifting existing trade around. </p> <p>There was substantial cross-country variation, however. Countries like Mexico and Thailand, for example, benefited because they already exported products that could replace Chinese exports to the US. But in addition to having this pre-existing specialization, they <em>also </em>had the ability to rapidly expand production of those goods to meet increased US demand after the tariffs were imposed. Conversely, the exports from countries like Colombia and Ukraine were complements to the tariffed products – so they did not see as many benefits. </p> <p>According to the researchers’ analysis, 75.8 percent of these cross-country differences in how bystander countries benefited from the US-China trade war were primarily driven by these country-specific aspects, rather than pre-existing sectoral specialization or trade flow volumes. This suggests that individual country characteristics played a more significant role than sector-specific or size-related factors in explaining how countries adapted to the trade war. </p> <p>“We aggregate the two together to come up with an overall winners and losers' picture for each country, which is kind of a weighted average of their export response to the US and China and the export response to the rest of the world,” Khandelwal said in an EGC interview. </p> </div> </div> <div class="paragraph paragraph--image paragraph--default" id="paragraph-image-262401" data-js="image"> <figure role="group" class="media media--image media--default"> <img width="1024" height="1280" alt="Four members of Yale's faculty standing together and conversing at an event" loading="lazy" class="lazyload" data-src="/sites/default/files/2024-11/03022023-EconYale-JuliaLuckettPhotography-10.jpg" typeof="foaf:Image" /> <figcaption class="media__figcaption"> <cite class="media__credit"> Julia Luckett.</cite> <div class="media__caption"> <p><em>Goldberg (second from left) and Khandelwal (far right) with fellow members of EGC's Markets & Development initiative, Lauren Falcao Bergquist and Nicholas Ryan.</em></p></cite> </figcaption> </figure> </div> <section class="layout--margin-bottom-md layout layout--one-column"> <div class="layout__regions"> <div class="layout__region layout__region--content"> </div> </div> </section> <div class="paragraph paragraph--html-content paragraph--default" id="paragraph-html-content-262397" data-js="html-content"> <header class="advanced-header-field advanced-header-field--heading-tag-h3"> <h3 id="heading-html_content-262397" class="advanced-header-field__heading"> US-China tariffs and beyond </h3> </header> <div class="paragraph__body"> <p>Goldberg, Khandelwal, and their coauthors’ study offers a nuanced understanding of how tariffs between major economies can ripple through global trade networks – affecting bilateral trade as well as global supply chains, while also creating new opportunities for bystander countries. Trade did not collapse due to the US-China trade war; instead, it shifted away from the economic super-powers to other countries that seized the chance to boost their global presence. </p> <p>While benefiting from increased trade, however, these bystander countries – and the entire global economy – have also faced heightened uncertainty and anxiety from the elevated trade tensions. Amid rising protectionism in many of the world’s leading economies, this uncertainty and anxiety poses real risks. In particular, bystander countries often fear that they could be the next targets of tariffs and have become less certain of how reliable the global trading system is. </p> <p>“It's relevant to two literatures: the literature on trade and how trade policy, how trade protection affects trade flows, but it also speaks to this emerging literature on geopolitics, the tensions between the US and China, and how this is going to affect the rest of the world,” Goldberg said. </p> <p>Nonetheless, the implication is that recent trends may not signify the end of globalization but rather the onset of a different kind of globalization. The globalized world is adapting to shifting geopolitical forces, resulting in the emergence of new trade partnerships and growing export volumes from smaller economies. </p> <hr /><p><em>Research Summary by <a href="/people/adam-walker">Adam Walker</a>. The cover image shows Cat Lai international port, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam on April 16, 2024. Photo by Tieu Bao Truong, Shutterstock.</em></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> </div> <aside class="node__aside"> </aside> </article> </div> </div> </main> <footer class="site-footer"> <div class="site-footer__newsletter"> <div class="newsletter newsletter--egc"> <h2 class="newsletter__title">Stay informed and sign up for the EGC Quarterly Newsletter.</h2> <p class="newsletter__text">Interested in more? EGC offers several newsletters and mailing lists. 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In the US-China trade war, how did some “bystander” countries come out ahead? | Economic Growth Center