【中国煤炭经济研究会】预计春节前后无烟煤价格难有提振行情，趋势性偏弱预期不变-我的钢铁网

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<p>资金政策来看，逆回购和MLF已经连续四周净回笼，春节前资金配置流动性配套淡季市场特征，尽管流动性仍相对宽松，资金政策的支持性立场不变，但对大宗基础物资，尤其是煤炭、化产、钢材，整体的支撑力度有限。从12月份的BCI指数来看，BCI 再次下跌，凸显出目前的局面仍存在较大的不确定性，尤其是企业融资环境指数本月出现了小幅下滑，企业的融资和资金流动性还是受到制约的。</p> <p>政策层面来看，近期会议相对频繁，政策的方向性指引也很明确，但是具化的方案和措施仍有待于进一步审批出台。时间上来看，春节以后政策将具化明朗，因此空窗期的特征依然没有改变。这对于煤炭的上下游产业链来讲，造成的总体影响是预期不足，普遍对春节前后的市场走势预期偏弱，因此价格趋势性筑底的预期仍在。</p> <p>供需层面来讲，当前已经是2025年春节前2周，煤矿端的产能释放水平仍在相对中高位，尤其元旦以后，迫于春节前地方财政以及化解隐性债务的需求，煤矿端的产量仍然是高于去年的，同步造成了煤矿的库存居高难下，去库困难，价格持续僵持，除局部性价比比较高的资源价格比较活跃以外，整体价格依然持稳。下游方面，经营情况的持续弱化已经从“量变”达到“质变”的新阶段，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>动力煤</a>作为无烟煤消耗的第一大行业，当前煤耗触顶回调迹象已经非常明显，需求转弱导致的降库运行趋势难以改变；而由此导致供给尿素和钢材两大行业的份额仍将增加；而尿素的同比价格达到800元/吨以上，钢材的同比价格达到700元/吨，导致春节期间的生产积极性动力不足，且春节后的复产预期滞后，这个阶段造成了无烟煤的三大消耗行业，补库预期不及往年，预计在1月20日左右即将告一段落。因此，下游的融资、回款、以及利润的三重困难，导致了下游补库不及往年，叠加煤矿端库存去化的滞后，春节前后的无烟煤价格难有提振行情，趋势性偏弱的预期不变。</p> <p align="left"> </p> <p align="left"> </p> <p align="left"> </p> </div>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> 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