[LLDPE日评]：供应压力传导较慢 LLDPE价格维持涨势（20241224）-我的钢铁网

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LLDPE价格维持涨势（20241224）</h2> 2024-12-24 16:09 来源：隆众资讯 作者：胡玮 <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="33788" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> 1、今日摘要①生产企业装置变动：福建联合全密度2线装置开车。②两油LLDPE出厂价部分上调20-100元/吨。③两油聚烯烃库存61万吨，较昨日降4万吨. 2、现货概况表1 国内聚乙烯价格汇总表（单位：元/吨）<table width="100"><tbody><tr style=";height:20px" class="firstRow"><td width="11" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">品种</td><td width="20" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">分类</td><td width="20" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">12月23日</td><td width="20" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">12月24日</td><td width="13" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">涨跌值</td><td width="13" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">涨跌幅</td></tr><tr style=";height:20px"><td width="11" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">LLDPE</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">滚塑料</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">8988</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(241, 251, 255); padding: 0px 7px;">8988</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">0</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">0.00%</td></tr><tr style=";height:20px"><td width="11" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">LLDPE</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">熔指1薄膜料</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">8789</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(241, 251, 255); padding: 0px 7px;">8801</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">12</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">0.14%</td></tr><tr style=";height:20px"><td width="11" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">LLDPE</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">熔指2薄膜料</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">8917</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(241, 251, 255); padding: 0px 7px;">8923</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">6</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">0.07%</td></tr><tr style=";height:20px"><td width="11" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">LLDPE</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">注塑料</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">9293</td><td width="20" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; background: rgb(241, 251, 255); padding: 0px 7px;">9298</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">5</td><td width="13" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">0.05%</td></tr><tr style=";height:20px"><td width="100" colspan="6" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td></tr></tbody></table>今日LLDPE市场维持上涨趋势，熔指2薄膜料上涨0.07%，熔指1薄膜料上涨0.14%，注塑料上涨0.05%，滚塑料稳定为主，符合早间预期。供应压力传导较慢，市场矛盾有限，低价成交较好，市场部分推涨，低价减少，但是下游抵触涨价，成交小幅放缓。<table width="100"><tbody><tr style=";height:30px" class="firstRow"><td width="97" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">图1 国内LLDPE价格走势（单位：元/吨）</td><td style=";border:none;padding:0 0 0 0" width="2%"> </td></tr><tr style=";height:25px"><td width="97" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"> <img src="https://mfs.oilchem.net/group1/M00/2D/17/rBKW3mdqa46AfdFuAABM9l0m9XA356.png" title="[LLDPE日评]：供应有压力但短期未显现 LLDPE价格谨慎推涨（20241223）" alt="[LLDPE日评]：供应有压力但短期未显现 LLDPE价格谨慎推涨（20241223）" width="900" height="288"/> </td><td style=";border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 2px;padding:0 0 0 0" width="2%"> </td></tr><tr style=";height:37px"><td width="97" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td><td width="2" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px;"> </td></tr></tbody></table>3、期现基差基差来看，今日山东地区LLDPE基差为701元/吨，缩小10元/吨。<table width="49"><tbody><tr style=";height:30px" class="firstRow"><td width="100" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">图2 山东地区基差走势（单位：元/吨）</td></tr><tr style=";height:25px"><td width="100" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"><img src="https://mfs.oilchem.net/group1/M00/2D/2B/rBKW32dqa8eAWhsdAABiOWfgDAI563.png" title="[LLDPE日评]：供应有压力但短期未显现 LLDPE价格谨慎推涨（20241223）" alt="[LLDPE日评]：供应有压力但短期未显现 LLDPE价格谨慎推涨（20241223）" width="900" height="288"/> </td></tr><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="100" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td></tr></tbody></table>表 2 主要交割地基差（元/吨）<table width="100"><tbody><tr style=";height:30px" class="firstRow"><td width="15" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;">地区</td><td width="26" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">12月23日</td><td width="26" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">12月24日</td><td width="15" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">涨跌</td><td width="16" style="border-top: 2px solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">环比</td></tr><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">山东</td><td width="26" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">711</td><td width="26" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(241, 251, 255); padding: 0px 7px;">701</td><td width="15" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">-10</td><td width="16" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">-1.41%</td></tr><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="100" colspan="5" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td></tr></tbody></table>4、生产动态目前线型薄膜生产比例33.30%，较年度平均高1.70%；线型其他生产比例在3.00%，较年度平均低0.10%。LLDPE利润较好，油制LLDPE市场毛利为670元/吨；煤制LLDPE市场毛利为1940元/吨。<table width="50"><tbody><tr style=";height:30px" class="firstRow"><td width="100" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">图3 国内LLDPE油制利润与价格对比图（单位：元/吨）</td></tr><tr style=";height:25px"><td width="100" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px; word-break: break-all;"><img src="https://mfs.oilchem.net/group1/M00/2D/2B/rBKW32dqa-GAeOHCAABGq8fZkek724.png" title="[LLDPE日评]：供应有压力但短期未显现 LLDPE价格谨慎推涨（20241223）" alt="[LLDPE日评]：供应有压力但短期未显现 LLDPE价格谨慎推涨（20241223）" width="900" height="288"/> </td></tr><tr style=";height:37px"><td width="100" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td></tr></tbody></table>5、市场情绪表3 国内LLDPE上下游从业者情绪预期<table width="100"><thead><tr style=";height:30px" class="firstRow"><td width="23" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">观点</td><td width="23" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">数量</td><td width="29" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">占比</td><td width="23" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">环比</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">看涨</td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">61</td><td width="29" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(241, 251, 255); padding: 0px 7px;">30%</td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">-6%</td></tr><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">看跌</td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">24</td><td width="29" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); background: rgb(241, 251, 255); padding: 0px 7px;">12%</td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">1%</td></tr><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">持平</td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">117</td><td width="29" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; background: rgb(241, 251, 255); padding: 0px 7px;">58%</td><td width="23" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid windowtext; padding: 0px 7px;">5%</td></tr><tr style=";height:20px"><td width="100" colspan="4" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯</td></tr></tbody></table>6、价格预测短期供应无明显压力，福建联合全密度装置2线虽然开车，生产比例略有提升，但是现货维持偏紧，供应回归较慢。下游工厂刚需采购力度较好，但是抵触高价，采购小幅放缓。所以整体来看，LLDPE市场无明显矛盾，支撑较强，但是推涨动力不足，预计维持高位，仅供参考。7、相关产品情况LDPE市场：今日LDPE市场价格延续跌势，以华东地区为例，今日薄膜料2426H市场主流价格在10400元/吨，较昨日下跌50元/吨，符合早间预期。虽然上海石化LDPE1线装置由于切牌号故障再次停车，但对市场供应影响不大。华北地区部分生产企业出厂价下调，市场支撑减弱，持货商报盘下滑。下游观望气氛增加，采购力度有限。8、数据日历表4 国内LLDPE数据一览表（单位：万吨）<table width="100"><thead><tr style=";height:30px" class="firstRow"><td width="40" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">数据项目</td><td width="22" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">发布日期</td><td width="17" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">上期数据</td><td width="19" style="border-top: 2px solid black; border-left: none; border-bottom: 2px solid black; border-right: none; padding: 0px 7px;">本周预期</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="40" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">LLDPE生产企业总库存（涨跌幅%）</td><td width="22" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">周三17:00PM</td><td width="17" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">-5.79%</td><td width="19" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">↘</td></tr><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="40" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">LLDPE社会样本仓库库存（涨跌幅%）</td><td width="22" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">周二17:00PM</td><td width="17" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">0.72%</td><td width="19" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">↘</td></tr><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="40" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">LLDPE周度产量(万吨)</td><td width="22" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">周四17:00PM</td><td width="17" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">33.98</td><td width="19" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">↗</td></tr><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="40" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">LLDPE检修影响量(万吨)</td><td width="22" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">周四17:00PM</td><td width="17" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">2.97</td><td width="19" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(191, 191, 191); padding: 0px 7px;">↓</td></tr><tr style=";height:30px"><td width="40" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid black; padding: 0px 7px;">LLDPE下游农膜开工率（涨跌幅%）</td><td width="22" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid black; padding: 0px 7px;">周四17:00PM</td><td width="17" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid black; padding: 0px 7px;">38.32%</td><td width="19" style="border-top: none; border-right: none; border-left: none; border-image: initial; border-bottom: 2px solid black; padding: 0px 7px;">↘</td></tr><tr style=";height:50px"><td width="100" colspan="4" valign="top" style="border: none; padding: 0px 7px;">数据来源：隆众资讯备注：1、↓↑视为大幅波动，突出涨跌幅超过3%的数据维度。2、↗↘视为窄幅波动，突出涨跌幅在0-3%以内的数据。</td></tr></tbody></table>  </div> </div> </article> <article 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[LLDPE日评]：供应压力传导较慢 LLDPE价格维持涨势（20241224）-我的钢铁网