Mysteel周报：汽车原材料价格监测（2.21-2.28）-我的钢铁网

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<p><strong>核心观点：</strong>28日国内钢材指数（Myspic）综合指数报收127.11点，周环比下跌0.97%。供应方面，本周五大钢材品种供应842.26万吨，周环比增加6.25万吨，增幅0.7%。库存方面，本周五大钢材总库存1879.12万吨，周环比增14.98万吨，增幅0.8%。社库周环比增加，增幅同样主要来自螺纹贡献。消费方面，本周五大品种周消费量为827.28万吨，环比增加4.1%；其中建材消费环比增12.7%，板材消费环比增0.6%。<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>市方面：宏观方面，周四美东时间上午，特朗普表示，墨西哥和加拿大关税将于3月4日如期生效。基本面方面，上周下游订单表现小幅提升，主要是成交在价格回调阶段，下游逢低采买的意愿较强，带来了阶段性的订单提升。然而从下游的提货表现来看，下游提货近期表现并不理想，因此导致部分下游成品库存积累个别铜加工企业也因此在上周后半段开始进行常规设备维护。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>市方面：上周沪铝呈先跌后涨“V”字走势，但目前 ADC12 价格相对来说仍处于高位，下游压铸企业订单差，开工率偏低，按需采购为主，散单压价意愿增强，也在多寻低价货源成交。铝合金锭企业接单较为困难，厂内库存出现累库，贸易商出货亦十分不佳，社会库存也出现微幅累库本周合金锭企业生产积极性一般，下游接货意愿不强，废铝成本又比较高，利润空间狭窄，多数根据订单进行生产。</p> <p><strong>一、原材料品种价格监测</strong></p> <p>截止2024年2月28日，各原材料当日即时价格以及价格周环比情况如下：</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 295.491px;" src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/glinfo/2025/03/11/1350481.png" width="600" height="295" /></p> <p><strong>二、汽车行业原材料基本面分析——钢材篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要①——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010104-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>冷轧</a>：全国冷轧板卷价格价格偏弱运行 </strong><strong>预计本周冷轧板卷价格或将窄幅调整为主</strong></p> <p>上周冷轧板卷产量85.77万吨，环比增加0.30万吨。库存方面，当前冷轧钢厂库存40.71万吨，环比减少0.14万吨，社会库存128.28万吨，环比增加0.13万吨。上周全国冷轧板卷部分市场价格以下跌为主，全国冷轧板卷价格均价较上一周下跌19元/吨。上周黑色期货盘面震荡运行，市场价格也跟随小幅波动，大多钢厂以及市场价格均出现下降。基本面看，目前冷轧开工率周环比持平，产能利用率和产量周环比持续小幅上涨，本周厂库持续下跌，社会库存仍以上涨为主，但总体库存出现窄幅降库，冷轧总体库存在本周由涨转降。市场方面，本周黑色期货震荡运行，市场交投氛围一般。市场方面，下游终端采购节奏有所改变，多是随用随采，少有大批备货需求，市场成交也是低位为主，市场整体表现不温不火。整体来看，预计本周全国冷轧板卷价格或将窄幅调整为主。</p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要②——热卷：全国<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>板卷价格小幅下行 </strong><strong>市场观望情绪浓厚</strong></p> <p>上周国内热轧板卷价格下行，全国24个主要市场3.0mm热轧板卷价格均价为3505元/吨，环比下跌38元/吨；4.75mm热轧板卷均价为3445元/吨，环比下跌36元/吨。从各区域的库存数据看，降幅最大的区域是华东地区，环比降2.92万吨，增幅最大的区域是华南地区，环比增4万吨。上周市场盘面震荡弱势运行，现货价格跟跌，市场下游陆续复工，成交有一定程度回暖，各地市场成交情况转强，但总体同比依然较弱，增库速率开始转小，增幅较大的趋于主要集中在华南、西北等区域，其余地区增减不一。近期市场供给增大，库存增幅转弱，市场库存压力有所减小，重要会议即将来临，预计本周市场价格或将震荡强势运行为主。</p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要③——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>优特钢</a>：上周全国优特钢市场价格微幅下行，预计本周优特钢市场价格窄幅震荡 </strong></p> <p> 上周优特钢主流品种价格微幅下跌，其中45#收3812元/吨，周环比下跌7元/吨；40Cr收4056元/吨，周环比下跌5元/吨；20CrMnTi收4171元/吨，周环比下跌7元/吨；CrMo收4923元/吨，周环比下跌6元/吨。</p> <p>供给方面，1月全国优特钢棒材（46家样本）产量414.60万吨，环比增加16.78万吨，同比减少1.68万吨；2月预计产量427.40万吨，环比增加12.80万吨，同比增加14.92万吨。</p> <p>需求方面，上周全国优特钢市场需求活跃度一般，截止2月28日，样本贸易企业日成交均值5.72万吨。</p> <p>库存方面，社库和厂库均降。截止2月27日，全国优特钢棒材样本总库存256.35万吨，较上周同期减少12.75万吨，降幅4.74%。月环比增加7.26万吨，年同比减少32.97万吨。</p> <p> 综合来看，上周全国优特钢市场价格微幅下行。市场方面，贸易商反馈采购需求没有显著增长，客户采购态度较为谨慎，多以按需采购为主，尚未形成大规模的交易热潮，市场观望情绪依旧浓厚。库存双库均降，消化情况良好。钢厂方面，调价趋势为以稳为主。综上所述，预计本周优特钢市场价格窄幅震荡。 </p> <p><strong> </strong><strong>主要内容摘要④——</strong><strong><a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>：周内<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢价格</a>先抑后扬，库存增至高位</strong></p> <p>上周钢厂铬铁招标迟迟未公布，<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍</a>铁近期成交价上移，不锈钢成本端支撑仍偏强，304吨钢亏损扩大。3月钢厂复产增量明显，需求尚需政策驱动，社会库存处于高位。若需求表现不及预期，钢厂增产动力或缩减，不锈钢销售压力仍较大。不过目前原料端成本支撑强，且不锈钢价格处于历史低位，不锈钢价格下跌空间有限，预计本周不锈钢价格窄幅震荡。关注原料成交价格及市场库存消化情况。</p> <p><strong>三、汽车行业原材料基本面分析——有色篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要</strong><strong>⑤</strong><strong>——铝：</strong></p> <p>上周沪铝呈先跌后涨“V”字走势，但目前 ADC12 价格相对来说仍处于高位，下游压铸企业订单差，开工率偏低，按需采购为主，散单压价意愿增强，也在多寻低价货源成交。铝合金锭企业接单较为困难，厂内库存出现累库，贸易商出货亦十分不佳，社会库存也出现微幅累库本周合金锭企业生产积极性一般，下游接货意愿不强，废铝成本又比较高，利润空间狭窄，多数根据订单进行生产。</p> <p><strong>四、汽车行业动态信息一览</strong></p> <p><strong>1</strong><strong>、2024年统计公报：全国汽车产量3155.9万辆，同比增4.8%</strong></p> <p>2月28日，国家统计局发布中华人民共和国2024年国民经济和社会发展统计公报，其中，2024年全国汽车产量3155.9万辆，同比增长4.8%；其中新能源汽车产量1316.8万辆，同比增长38.7%。</p> <p><strong>2</strong><strong>、</strong>1月新能源轻客实销9193辆，同比降3%</p> <p>自2024年3月份起，我国新能源轻客销量连续10个月超2万辆。2024年全年，新能源轻客累计销量达到24.47万辆，同比增长78%，较2023年净增长超10万辆。</p> <p>2025年，新能源轻客市场的良好势头如何继续？请看第一商用车网的分析报道。</p> <p>1月实销9193辆同比下降3%，连增势头止于“10连增”</p> <p>根据第一商用车网掌握的最新数据，2025年1月份，国内新能源轻客市场共计销售9193辆（注：本文轻客指车长4.5米~7米，以4.5~6米的VAN类封闭式厢式物流车为主，数据来源为交强险实销口径，不含出口，下同），环比去年12月下降61%，同比也出现下滑，降幅为3%，同比增速从上月（+75%）转负。至此，本轮自2024年3月份开始的连增势头宣告结束，止于“10连增”。 </p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘儒 021-26096617 </br> 资讯监督：胡赛男 021-26093781 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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