以巴停火協議推進有3難　陸學者：美調整中東政策局勢急劇變化 | ETtoday大陸新聞

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content="巴勒斯坦武裝組織哈瑪斯13日發表聲明，將繼續執行加薩地帶停火協議，包括按照時間表交換被扣押人員。看似局勢從危險邊緣拉回，隨著川普回歸調整中東政策後，中東局勢力量開始重新排列與失衡，戰火依然充滿變數。上海外國語大學中東研究所教授丁隆以三點分析，分為三個階段的巴以停火協議推進困難重重的原因，包括「美國中東政策的調整是中東局勢急劇變化的最重要外部因素。」(以巴停火,川普,中東,以色列,哈瑪斯)" /> <meta property="og:description" itemprop="description" content="巴勒斯坦武裝組織哈瑪斯13日發表聲明，將繼續執行加薩地帶停火協議，包括按照時間表交換被扣押人員。看似局勢從危險邊緣拉回，隨著川普回歸調整中東政策後，中東局勢力量開始重新排列與失衡，戰火依然充滿變數。上海外國語大學中東研究所教授丁隆以三點分析，分為三個階段的巴以停火協議推進困難重重的原因，包括「美國中東政策的調整是中東局勢急劇變化的最重要外部因素。」"/>   <meta name="section" property="article:section" content="大陸"/> <meta name="subsection" itemprop="articleSection" content="大陸"/> <meta property="dable:item_id" content="2909689"> <meta name="pubdate" itemprop="dateCreated" itemprop="datePublished" property="article:published_time" content="2025-02-16T16:28:00+08:00"/> <meta name="lastmod" itemprop="dateModified" content="2025-02-16T14:51:52+08:00"/> <meta name="author" content="https://www.facebook.com/ETtoday"/> <meta property="article:author" content="https://www.facebook.com/ETtoday"/> 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<strong>大陸</strong> <a class="btn current" href="/news/focus/大陸/">大陸焦點</a> <a class="btn " href="/news/focus/大陸/特派現場/">特派現場</a> </div>   <article> <div class="subject_article">  <div class="site_logo" style="display:none;"> <link href="//cdn2.ettoday.net/style/ettoday2017/css/print.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" media="print"/> <img src="//cdn2.ettoday.net/style/ettoday2017/images/logo_print.jpg"/> </div>  <header> <h1 class="title" itemprop="headline">以巴停火協議推進有3難　陸學者：美調整中東政策局勢急劇變化</h1> </header>  <div id="all_text_1" class="text_ad_top ad_txt_1"> <script type="text/javascript"> (function(){ var ts = Math.random(); document.write('<scr' + 'ipt type="text/javascript" src="https://ad.ettoday.net/ads.php?bid=all_text_1&rr='+ ts +'"></scr' + 'ipt>'); })() </script> </div>    <div class="et_social_1">      </div>    <div class="story" itemprop="articleBody">    <p><img src="//cdn2.ettoday.net/images/8087/d8087200.jpg" alt="▲▼ 以色列3人質15日獲釋，分別是霍恩（Iair Horn）、迪克爾陳（Sagui Dekel Chen），以及薩沙（Sasha Troufanov）。（圖／路透）" width="600" height="400" /></p> <p><strong>▲哈瑪斯15日釋放以色列3人質，並且承諾將按照加薩走廊停火協議，按照時間表繼續釋放人質（圖／路透）</strong></p> <p>記者任以芳／綜合報導</p> <p>巴勒斯坦武裝組織哈瑪斯13日發表聲明，將繼續執行加薩地帶停火協議，包括按照時間表交換被扣押人員。看似局勢從危險邊緣拉回，隨著川普回歸調整中東政策後，中東局勢力量開始重新排列與失衡，戰火依然充滿變數。上海外國語大學中東研究所教授丁隆以三點分析，分為三個階段的巴以停火協議推進困難重重的原因，包括「美國中東政策的調整是中東局勢急劇變化的最重要外部因素。」</p> <p>年初，以巴衝突一度隨著停火協議達成慢慢降溫。平靜不到一個月，巴以局勢因停火協議執行情況和交換被扣押人員問題幾經周折，第二階段停火談判陷入停滯，哈瑪斯於15日釋放3名以色列男性人質，同時宣布19日會再釋放3名人質，羅米戈南（Romi Gonen）、艾蜜莉達瑪里（Emily Damari）與朵倫施泰因布雷徹（Doron Steinbrecher），看似局勢有所拉回，依然充滿變數。</p> <p>上海外國語大學中東研究所教授丁隆投書《環球時報》，他分析，主要中東力量結構進一步失衡，加上外部環境的重大變化推動近期中東局勢持續動蕩。分為三個階段的巴以停火協議推進困難重重，主要有三方面原因。</p> <p>丁隆首先指出，「中東主要力量此消彼長造成的影響逐步顯現。」持續一年多的多場衝突導致中東地緣政治格局發生劇變，伊朗及其主導的「抵抗之弧」實力被嚴重削弱，以色列和美國在中東的影響力達到空前高度。衝突過後，「抵抗之弧」的核心成員黎巴嫩真主黨在該國國內的政治影響力顯著下降，在總統推選和內閣組成等方面已失去直接左右黎政局走向的力量，意味著美國和沙烏地阿拉伯重返黎巴嫩，伊朗被推出。</p> <p>敘利亞新政權採取結盟土耳其、親善阿拉伯國家和疏遠伊朗的地區外交政策，美國和西方國家也積極與敘利亞新政權接觸。中東的地區均勢正在被打破，其未來幾年可能造成的局部與外溢影響有待進一步觀察。</p> <p><img src="//cdn2.ettoday.net/images/8079/d8079259.jpg" alt="▲▼美國總統川普在空軍一號向記者發表談話。（圖／路透）" width="600" height="367" /></p> <p><strong>▲陸學者認為，美國總統川普川普接連拋出「清空加沙」「接管加沙」計畫是本末倒置，無助時局。（圖／路透）</strong></p> <p>丁隆分析第二點，「美國中東政策的調整是中東局勢急劇變化的最重要外部因素。」美國對以色列的進一步支持，可能讓中東局勢脫離原有停火降溫的軌道，增添更多變數。</p> <p>一方面川普就任後連續接待以色列總理、約旦國王等中東國家領導人，並可能再次選擇沙烏地阿拉伯作為外訪的首站，傳遞出對中東局勢的重視。</p> <p>川普接連拋出「清空加薩」「接管加沙薩」計畫，埃及等國也在緊急召開峰會討論相關事宜與應對方式。這些「計劃」是本末倒置，把「重建」這項長遠目標置前，無視停火、人質回家和人道救援物資進入等眼前最迫切的任務。從結果看反而觸碰了以巴雙方敏感神經，好不容易建立的些許互信正在被摧毀。</p> <p>最後，丁隆認為，「停火協議的執行越向縱深發展，越接近雙方的深層結構性矛盾，受到的阻力與破裂的可能性就越大。」在協議層面，巴以雙方各自的關注點存在錯位。目前第一階段的停火協議條款執行起來困難重重，比如人質交換、援助物資准入等問題，有關條款也被隨意曲解。這些都可能成為衝突再起的導火索。</p> <p>實力對比上，「以強巴弱」局面的進一步強化，停火協議能否執行到第三階段畫上了一個問號。聯合國開發計劃署（UNDP）在一份報告中指出，新一輪巴以衝突讓加薩地帶社會發展整體倒退69年。聯合國貿易和發展會議（UNCTAD）也在一份報告中表示，加薩地帶的經濟想要恢復到衝突前水平，需要大約350年。在巴勒斯坦自身總體實力衰退、外部支持減弱的背景下，確保停火協議乃至「兩國方案」得到落實的難度正在持續加大。</p> <p>隨著新一輪巴以衝突的解決進程進入「下半場」，實現停火只是第一步，只有實現加薩永久停火、緩解加薩人道災難、制定加薩戰後治理的安排、重振「兩國方案」的政治前景，才能真正持久終結流血與死亡，帶來巴以和平與地區安寧。</p>  </div>     <script src="https://cdn2.ettoday.net/ad/biggo/biggo_body.js"></script>   <div 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