Mysteel周报：市场参与者交易较为谨慎本周铜板带市场成交压力较大（12.13-12.20）-我的钢铁网

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id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p><strong>一、</strong><strong><a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tongbandai/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜板带</a>现货价格小幅下降但市场成交较为一般</strong></p> <p>截止本周五紫<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>带 T2 价格较上周下跌880元/吨，均价77890元/吨，T2紫铜带加工费4200元/吨，黄铜带H62 价格较上周下跌720元/吨，均价58860元/吨，H62黄铜带加工费3000元/吨。</p> <p><img src="https://img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/20/8d4482698c0f443d9ded2eb3d37422fc.jpg" width="593" height="429" /></p> <p><strong>二、铜板带企业生产积极性不高本周产量延续下降</strong></p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>调研本周国内十二家铜板带加工企业周度产量进行跟踪，样本总产能107万吨。本周十二家铜板带产量1.57万吨，周度产能利用率在69.35%，周环比减少1.06%，本周订单量1.27万吨，周环比减少200吨，据Mysteel统计，本周<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>震荡下行，铜板带现货价格小幅下降，本周铜板带企业生产表现不尽如人意，主要是目前订单表现不佳，企业生产积极性不高；加之年底多以清除库存为主，新增订单不多，整体来看，由于时间渐进年末，市场上铜板带厂家企生产积极性并不高，后续仍有进一步下滑的可能，年前企业开工率逐步降低。</p> <p><img src="https://img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/12/20/3ec4ad2f3bc14855850ef02981f15769.jpg" width="554" height="321" /></p> <p align="right">数据来源：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>我的钢铁网</a></p> <p><strong>三、市场上采购意愿不高本周铜板带市场成交较为一般</strong></p> <p>据Mysteel调研，本周铜价震荡下行，但由于临近年底，市场上铜板带企业、贸易商以及终端企业多面临年终决算和回笼资金的工作，交易情绪普遍趋向谨慎，尤其是贸易商业采购意愿均有较大程度的减弱，整体市场成交较为一般。</p> <p><strong>四、下周铜板带市场成交难有突破性表现</strong></p> <p>下周作为2024年最后一个交易周，多数铜板带生产企业或将选择减少交易量以避免影响公司年终决算，下周铜板带企业产能利用率或将延续下滑，贸易商同样减少贸易额避免出现跨年度账目，随着越发临近春节假期，市场交易热度或将逐步下滑，预计下周铜板带市场成交难有突破性表现。</p> <p><strong>五、</strong><strong><a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/dianjietong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a></strong><strong>原料市场</strong></p> <p>价格：铜价持续下跌，但整体幅度有限</p> <p>本周重庆市场电解<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/tong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价格</a>持续下跌，截止2024年12月20日电解铜中间价报73825元/吨，较上周五中间价下跌910元/吨。</p> <p>供应：去库表现下滑，社库回归累增</p> <p>从供应来看，周内川渝社会库存小幅累库，截止至12月19日两地社库库存为3300吨，环比增加300吨；从具体情况来看，本周炼厂往重庆与成都发货量相对稳定，但本周零单出货表现不佳，其中重庆出库情况不太理想，故整体川渝库存表现小幅累库。</p> <p>需求：区域消费表现不佳，零单议价幅度扩大</p> <p>从需求来看，首先，本周川渝现货升贴水报价波动区间不大，但成交议价幅度在扩大，截止至本周五持货商升贴水均价在升水125元/吨，环比上调20元/吨。此外，本周虽铜价在持续走弱，但每日的实际零单成交表现却并没有出现预想中的不断回升，多数下游铜厂仍以长单提货为主，持货商们均表示日均零单成交虽有所增加，但普遍在200吨以内，仅部分持货商为年末清库，选择给出了较大的议价空间，下游方逢低采购，但成交量同样在200吨左右。</p> <p>预测：到货预期持续减弱，现货升水或将表现下行</p> <p>后市来看，宏观及供应方面，目前国内社库库存虽上海仍有进口预期，但长单谈判阶段，国内冶炼厂发货普遍偏紧，社库或将难以出现大幅度的累库表现，叠加国内宏观政策偏宽松，铜价同样跌至了前期低点，再度下挫的可能性有所降低。消费方面，年终决算临近，西南区域消费表现难有进一步的突破性表现。现货方面，虽下周区域到货预期减弱，但在实际交易阶段部分国企持货商有意在自然年末完成清库回笼资金的任务，故而下周西南市场现货升贴水仍有一定的下调可能性，预计在平水-升水100区间运行。</p> <p><strong>六、</strong><strong><a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/feitong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废铜</a></strong><strong>原料市场</strong></p> <p>截止本周五广东市场电解铜73955元/吨。含税含运费的报价1#光亮铜72709元/吨，2#铜69733元/吨，精废差分别为1246元/吨、4222元/吨，本周光亮铜不含税周均价为68800元/吨，较上个交易周下调640元/吨，下调幅度为0.92%。本周五精废差较上个交易周周五扩大183元/吨至1246元/吨，扩大幅度为17.22%，合理价差为1440元/吨，较上个交易周周五持平。</p> <p>供应：废紫铜方面，本周铜价持续走低，<a href='https://youse.m.mysteel.com/feitong/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废铜价格</a>亦随之调整，市场贸易氛围显得较为低迷。周初，尽管铜价下调，但废铜现货价格依旧坚挺，导致做空单货商交单缓慢。为缓解厂家施加的交货压力，部分货商不得不选择让利收购。周中铜价持续下挫，持货商捂货意愿降低，反向开票消息也让厂家采购意愿减弱，尽管有部分货商抛售废铜，但市场整体供应呈收紧态势。废黄铜方面，本周废黄铜价格受铜价下行影响，小幅下跌，但抗跌性较强。上游货商主要采取逢高出货策略，整体拿货意愿低迷。由于当前铜价疲软，而市场散户手中的货源价格偏高，大规模高价补货可能导致较大亏损，因此多数货商选择观望。</p> <p>需求：废紫铜方面，下游铜厂近期保持谨慎态度，以按需采购为主。政策层面的干扰使得厂家更加关注在途原料的入库进度。除了部分厂家为完成年底产量计划而加价采购废铜外，整体市场成交较为零散。铜价的持续下滑导致精废价差急剧缩小，使厂家再次陷入采购与销售双重困境。废黄铜方面，由于下游黄铜厂成品订单价格表现较为坚挺，终端企业接单量出现小幅下滑，使得部分铜厂原料采购需求有所削弱。然而，仍有不少铜厂有尚未完成交付的订单，加上目前市场现货依旧紧缺，采购端竞价表现仍较为激烈。</p> <p><strong>七、市场热点</strong></p> <p><strong>1、</strong>12月18日，鑫科材料发布股票交易风险提示公告，公司专注高性能、高精密度铜合金板带产品的研发、生产和销售，主营业务未发生变化，内部生产经营活动秩序正常。市场对公司高速铜连接和高速铜缆项目关注度较高，但项目尚在立项、环评以及设备采购交流阶段，存在一定的不确定性。公司当前的市盈率和市净率均高于同行业的平均水平。</p> <p><strong>2、</strong>12月16日，嘉元科技公告，公司拟与IXM S.A.和埃珂森上海签订《电解铜销售合同》，合计采购7万吨电解铜，预估总金额为50.66亿元人民币。合同将从2024年12月至2025年12月执行，旨在保障公司电解铜原材料的长期稳定供应。上述合同为日常经营性长单采购合同，最终实现的采购金额可能随市场价格波动，对公司当期及未来业绩影响存在不确定性。合同符合公司未来生产经营需要，不影响公司业务独立性。</p> <p><strong>3、</strong>伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周二伦铜库存降至四个月新低268,100吨，而后库存有所回升，最新库存水平为272,825吨，增至一个月新高。上海期货交易所最新公布数据显示，12月13日当周，沪铜库存继续下滑，周度库存减少13.5%至84,557吨，降至十个月新低。国际铜库存增加3317吨至18,507吨。上周，纽铜库存整体继续增加，最新库存水平为94,035吨，再刷近六年新高。</p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：吴文丹 021-26096587 </br> 资讯监督：高晨曦 021-26093253 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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Mysteel周报：市场参与者交易较为谨慎本周铜板带市场成交压力较大（12.13-12.20）-我的钢铁网