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Mysteel月报:10月大宗耐火原料市场或稳中偏强运行-我的钢铁网
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align="justify">分经济类型看,9月份,国有控股企业增加值同比增长3.9%;股份制企业增长6.2%,外商及港澳台投资企业增长2.4%;私营企业增长5.6%。</p> <p align="justify">分行业看,9月份,41个大类行业中有36个行业增加值保持同比增长。其中,<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0502-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>煤炭</a>开采和洗选业增长3.2%,石油和天然气开采业增长2.0%,农副食品加工业增长1.7%,酒、饮料和精制茶制造业增长5.6%,纺织业增长5.1%,化学原料和化学制品制造业增长4.6%,非金属矿物制品业下降3.8%,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长2.7%,<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>冶炼和压延加工业增长8.8%,通用设备制造业增长4.6%,专用设备制造业增长4.0%,汽车制造业增长4.6%,铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业增长13.7%,电气机械和器材制造业增长6.1%,计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长10.6%,电力、热力生产和供应业增长10.2%。</p> <p align="justify">分产品看,9月份,规模以上工业619种产品中有345种产品产量同比增长。其中,钢材11731万吨,同比下降2.4%;<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1001-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>水泥</a>16847万吨,下降10.3%;十种有色金属664万吨,增长2.2%;乙烯267万吨,下降1.3%;汽车283.9万辆,下降1.0%,其中新能源汽车130.8万辆,增长48.5%;发电量8024亿千瓦时,增长6.0%;原油加工量5873万吨,下降5.4%。</p> <p align="justify">9月份,规模以上工业企业产品销售率为96.0%,同比下降1.4个百分点;规模以上工业企业实现出口交货值14099亿元,同比名义增长3.4%。</p> <p align="justify">二、耐火材料行业生产运行情况</p> <p align="justify"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/11/01/f68413e13862428aa13087b0494d9bf6.png" alt="" width="600" height="520.0538358008075" /> </p> <p align="justify"><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>矾土</p> <p align="justify">10月,山西铝矾土价格月环比上涨50元/吨,88铝矾土块料2700-2800元/吨,85铝矾土块料2300-2400元/吨,80铝矾土块料1700-1800元/吨,以上为出厂不含税价格。</p> <p align="justify">原料铝土矿资源紧张,导致煅烧的铝矾土煅烧企业寥寥无几,市场观望为主。随着秋冬采暖季临近,环保管控升级,山西阳泉部分铝矾土煅烧企业开始停产,孝义及晋中地区停产企业也在增加,铝矾土市场供应紧张,燃料方面,焦化气或有供应不足,燃气价格存在上涨预期增加,生产成本增加,<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1007-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>熟料</a>价格水涨船高。叠加前期铝矾土库存消耗殆尽,供应商报价普遍坚挺。综合来看,短期内山西铝矾土市场或表现为稳中偏强走势。</p> <p align="justify">棕刚玉</p> <p align="justify">本周国内棕刚玉市场暂稳运行,现河南市场倾倒炉95棕刚玉段砂5250元/吨,山西市场倾倒炉95棕刚玉段砂5250元/吨,贵州市场倾倒炉95棕刚玉段砂5050元/吨,以上为出厂含税价格。</p> <p align="justify">10月中下旬,环保管控严格叠加原料供应紧张,棕刚玉冶炼炉开工率及产能利用率均处于偏低水平,产量释放有限。而近期氧化<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>格持续上涨,相关产品白刚玉价格跟涨,导致更多采购商转向使用棕刚玉,棕刚玉市场需求向好。不过,棕刚玉生产原料供应紧张,价格高位,库存偏低,供应商惜售心态加剧。综合来看,11月棕刚玉市场或仍有上涨预期。白刚玉</p> <p align="justify">10月,白刚玉市场偏强运行,国内白刚玉段砂主流报6100元/吨,白刚玉细粉主流报6200元/吨,以上为出厂含税价格。</p> <p align="justify">原料氧化铝价格宽幅上涨,涨幅超800元/吨,且现货供应持续紧张状态,而非铝行业采购还需加价。受氧化铝供应紧张影响,部分白刚玉企业已经停炉待产,挺价惜售,下游商多持观望态度,成交低位。白刚玉市场供需双弱,预计短期内白刚玉价格或仍偏强运行。</p> <p align="justify">镁砂</p> <p align="justify">10月,MgO≥97.5%普通电熔镁砂价格在4050元/吨,MgO≥96.5%普通电熔镁砂价格在3350元/吨,MgO≥95.5%普通电熔镁砂价格在2900元/吨,以上均为出厂含税价格。</p> <p align="justify">本月镁砂开工有所下降,主要是原料矿石与用电价格有上涨,导致成本高位支撑,镁砂企业遭受成本及利润双重挤压,整体生产积极性不高。随着11月份电价试用月临近,企业陆续停工停炉,谨慎观望。尽管多数电熔镁砂厂家报价上调,但实际成交受限,预计下周电熔镁砂市场或稳中偏强运行。</p> <p align="justify">鳞片石墨</p> <p align="justify">10月,月环比下调200元/吨,黑龙江市场-195鳞片石墨主流报价3250元/吨;山东市场-195鳞片石墨主流报价3500元/吨,-194鳞片石墨主流报价为3300元/吨,-190鳞片石墨主流报价2800元/吨,以上为出厂含税价格。</p> <p align="justify">需求方面,下游备货量小,采购积极性不高,对鳞片石墨市场价格已逼近成本线,后期下跌空间或收窄,预计11月鳞片石墨市场仍弱稳运行。</p> <p align="justify">碳化硅</p> <p align="justify">11月, 碳化硅市场涨跌互现,二级品市场需求好转,环比上调50元/吨,一级品库存偏高,月环比下调50元/吨,一级品碳化硅 98 块料均价5700元/吨、二级品 90 块料均价 4700 元/吨、三级品 70 (0-5mm) 均价 3600 元/吨,成交一般。</p> <p align="justify">原料方面, 11月<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----050204-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>无烟煤</a>、石油焦价格均呈现上涨态势,供应低位,且随着秋冬采暖季的到来,市场供应仍有下降态势,原料价格趋强,叠加电价季节性上涨,碳化硅成本居高不下。供应方面,碳化硅冶炼炉开工高位,且有部分停产企业回复生茶,短期内供应仍有增加态势,11月碳化硅成本及供应偏强,需求增加态势不明显,预计碳化硅市场稳中偏强运行。</p> <p align="justify">三、主要下游行业生产运行情况</p> <p align="justify">(1)钢铁行业运行情况</p> <p align="justify"> 据国家统计局数据显示,2024年9月份,我国粗钢产量7707万吨,同比下降6.1%;1-9月份,我国粗钢产量76848万吨,同比下降3.6%。</p> <p align="justify">(2)有色行业运行情况</p> <p align="justify">国家统计局数据显示,2024年9月份有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增加值同比增长8.8%,1-9月累计增加值同比增长10.2%;9月份十种有色金属产量为664万吨,同比增长2.2%;1-9月累计产量为5874万吨,累计同比增长5.6%。</p> <p align="justify">(3)水泥行业运行情况</p> <p align="justify">国家统计局数据显示,9月水泥产量为1.68亿吨,同比下降10.3%;1-9月水泥产量为13.27亿吨,同比下降10.7%。</p> <p align="justify">四、大宗耐火原料市场展望</p> <p align="justify">(1) 供应方面</p> <p align="justify">11月, 耐火原料大部分品种原料供应紧张,价格高位, 生产成本居高不下,企业利润空间压缩,积极性不高。</p> <p align="justify">(2) 需求方面</p> <p align="justify">临近秋冬采暖季,下游需求偏弱,利润低位,部分甚至存在倒挂现象,生产积极性欠佳,对<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0309-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>耐材</a>的需求或持续疲软。</p> <p align="justify">综上所述, 目前大宗耐火原料市场供应偏弱,下游需求表现一般,叠加成本高位,预计11月份大宗耐火原料市场或大部分稳中偏强运行。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑:张翠娟 021-26094231 </br> 资讯监督:张蕊蕊 021-66896511 </br> 资讯投诉:陈靖夫 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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