Oil and Gas Prices Will Tank Under Trump, BofA Strategist Says

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As those tariffs heighten trade tensions, that could slow economic growth and lead to higher inflation and interest rates, dampening demand and prices, Blanch's comments suggest.That could have an impact on production, too, Blanch says.In theory, Trump's deregulatory stances and pro-fossil fuel views should boost production. Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to lower energy prices by boosting US oil production, saying, \"We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill,\" at a rally in Detroit last month.\"I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months,\" he added.But if prices are lower amid sweeping tariffs, that could mean production slows, too, as producers see less incentive to accelerate drilling, Blanch says.\"In America, prices determine how much output producers ultimately pull out of the ground, and I think the bigger risk to prices really is coming from tariffs. 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It indicates a way to close an interaction, or dismiss a notification. </desc> <path class="close-icon-path" d="M2.93 17.07A10 10 0 1 1 17.07 2.93 10 10 0 0 1 2.93 17.07zM11.4 10l2.83-2.83-1.41-1.41L10 8.59 7.17 5.76 5.76 7.17 8.59 10l-2.83 2.83 1.41 1.41L10 11.41l2.83 2.83 1.41-1.41L11.41 10z"/> </svg> </div> </div> </div> <section class="container mobile-padding"> <section class="row" role="main" > <section id="l-content" class="is-right-rail with-rail-video-ad" data-track-page-area="Post" data-post-content > <section class="row"> <div class="col-12"> <article class=""> <section class="post-headline-wrapper " id="post-headline" > <div class="post-meta"> <span class="post-breadcrumbs headline-regular "> <a href="/news" class="" data-track-click="{"product_field":"News","element_name":"breadcrumbs","event":"navigation"}" > News </a> <svg class="svg-icon chevron-icon post-breadcrumbs-chevron rotate270" data-chevron-icon role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="1em" 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srcset="https://i.insider.com/673b9d20ede4eeae39283e20?width=400&format=jpeg&auto=webp 400w, https://i.insider.com/673b9d20ede4eeae39283e20?width=500&format=jpeg&auto=webp 500w, https://i.insider.com/673b9d20ede4eeae39283e20?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp 700w, https://i.insider.com/673b9d20ede4eeae39283e20?width=1000&format=jpeg&auto=webp 1000w, https://i.insider.com/673b9d20ede4eeae39283e20?width=1300&format=jpeg&auto=webp 1300w, https://i.insider.com/673b9d20ede4eeae39283e20?width=2000&format=jpeg&auto=webp 2000w" sizes="(min-width: 1280px) 900px" alt="An oil well is seen" decoding="async" /> </div> <span class="image-source-only "> <span class="image-source headline-regular" data-e2e-name="image-source" itemprop="creditText" > David McNew/Getty Images </span> </span> </figure> <div> <section class="post-content typography " data-track-content="" data-post-type="post" > <div id="piano-inline-content-wrapper" data-piano-inline-content-wrapper data-user-status="anonymous" > <div data-component-type="content-lock" data-load-strategy="exclude"> <div class="content-lock-content"> <div class="in-post-sticky only-desktop"><div class="ad-callout-wrapper only-desktop"> <div class="ad-label headline-regular only-desktop">Advertisement</div> <div data-bi-ad="" id="gpt-post-markets-desktop_in_post_ad-desktop-fluid-1" class="ad ad-wrapper fluid in-post only-desktop" data-force="" data-type="ad" data-adunit="marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-1/markets" data-secvert="" data-tag="mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war" data-authors="kelly-cloonan" data-region="Desktop In Post Ad" data-responsive="[{"browserLimit":[728,0],"slotSize":[[300,250],"fluid"]},{"browserLimit":[1260,0],"slotSize":[[728,90],[300,250],[800,480],[600,480],"fluid"]}]" data-tile-order="tile-1" data-url="/news/commodities/oil-gas-prices-trump-tariffs-trade-war-production-bofa-2024-11" data-template="default" data-targeting="{"adunit":"marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-1/markets","region":"Desktop In Post Ad","tag":"mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war","template":"default","dvp_spos":"in-content-1","rawvert":""}" data-amazontamsizes="[[728,90],[300,250]]" data-not-lazy="" data-enable-ad-refresher="true" data-refresh-count="0"></div> </div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil and gas prices will likely fall under Trump's proposed tariffs, a Bank of America strategist said.</li><li>He said tariffs will lead to a trade war, dampening demand and prices in the process.</li><li>Those lower prices could slow production too, Blanch said.</li></ul><p>Oil and gas prices are set to fall amid an onslaught of steep tariffs under Donald Trump, according to Bank of America strategist Francisco Blanch.</p><p>Blanch says the president-elect's proposed tariffs will likely curb global trade, driving down oil and gas prices in the process.</p><div class="in-post-sticky only-desktop"><div class="ad-callout-wrapper only-desktop"> <div class="ad-label headline-regular only-desktop">Advertisement</div> <div data-bi-ad="" id="gpt-post-markets-desktop_in_post_ad-desktop-fluid-2" class="ad ad-wrapper fluid in-post only-desktop" data-force="" data-type="ad" data-adunit="marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-2/markets" data-secvert="" data-tag="mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war" data-authors="kelly-cloonan" data-region="Desktop In Post Ad" data-responsive="[{"browserLimit":[728,0],"slotSize":[[300,250],"fluid"]},{"browserLimit":[1260,0],"slotSize":[[728,90],[300,250],[800,480],[600,480],"fluid"]}]" data-tile-order="tile-2" data-url="/news/commodities/oil-gas-prices-trump-tariffs-trade-war-production-bofa-2024-11" data-template="default" data-targeting="{"adunit":"marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-2/markets","region":"Desktop In Post Ad","tag":"mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war","template":"default","dvp_spos":"in-content-2","rawvert":""}" data-amazontamsizes="[[728,90],[300,250]]" data-enable-ad-refresher="true" data-refresh-count="0"></div> </div></div><p>"America first means commodities second, and I think we kind of start from that point," he said in a Monday interview with Bloomberg Television.</p><p>Trump has floated proposals of sweeping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets" data-analytics-product-module="body_link" rel="">tariffs</a> of 10% to 20% on all countries, with the exception of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-trump-us-election-tariffs-chinese-economy-trade-war-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets" data-analytics-product-module="body_link" rel="">China</a>, where the US would impose steeper duties of 60%. As those tariffs heighten trade tensions, that could slow economic growth and lead to higher inflation and interest rates, dampening demand and prices, Blanch's comments suggest.</p><p>That could have an impact on production, too, Blanch says.</p><div class="in-post-sticky only-desktop"><div class="ad-callout-wrapper only-desktop"> <div class="ad-label headline-regular only-desktop">Advertisement</div> <div data-bi-ad="" id="gpt-post-markets-desktop_in_post_ad-desktop-fluid-3" class="ad ad-wrapper fluid in-post only-desktop" data-force="" data-type="ad" data-adunit="marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-3/markets" data-secvert="" data-tag="mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war" data-authors="kelly-cloonan" data-region="Desktop In Post Ad" data-responsive="[{"browserLimit":[728,0],"slotSize":[[300,250],"fluid"]},{"browserLimit":[1260,0],"slotSize":[[728,90],[300,250],[800,480],[600,480],"fluid"]}]" data-tile-order="tile-3" data-url="/news/commodities/oil-gas-prices-trump-tariffs-trade-war-production-bofa-2024-11" data-template="default" data-targeting="{"adunit":"marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-3/markets","region":"Desktop In Post Ad","tag":"mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war","template":"default","dvp_spos":"in-content-3","rawvert":""}" data-amazontamsizes="[[728,90],[300,250]]" data-enable-ad-refresher="true" data-refresh-count="0"></div> </div></div><p>In theory, Trump's deregulatory stances and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-climate-policies-ev-subsidies-renewables-fossil-fuel-drilling-2024-7?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=business-sf&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwY2xjawGoeZpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfLoB8Cl3sA7ngI6j0XqTGKOlLQQq9ktKNJV9_yySewhWgslJ6LnmWQFXg_aem_oIAve7xxBu3McHKWflkroA&utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets" data-analytics-product-module="body_link" rel="">pro-fossil fuel</a> views should boost production. Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to lower energy prices by boosting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-lower-gas-prices-exxonmobil-ceo-oil-boom-2024-11?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets" data-analytics-product-module="body_link" rel="">US oil production</a>, saying, "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," at a rally in Detroit last month.</p><p>"I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months," he added.</p><p>But if prices are lower amid sweeping tariffs, that could mean production slows, too, as producers see less incentive to accelerate drilling, Blanch says.</p><div class="in-post-sticky only-desktop"><div class="ad-callout-wrapper only-desktop"> <div class="ad-label headline-regular only-desktop">Advertisement</div> <div data-bi-ad="" id="gpt-post-markets-desktop_in_post_ad-desktop-fluid-4" class="ad ad-wrapper fluid in-post only-desktop" data-force="" data-type="ad" data-adunit="marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-4-plus/markets" data-secvert="" data-tag="mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war" data-authors="kelly-cloonan" data-region="Desktop In Post Ad" data-responsive="[{"browserLimit":[728,0],"slotSize":[[300,250],"fluid"]},{"browserLimit":[1260,0],"slotSize":[[728,90],[300,250],[800,480],[600,480],"fluid"]}]" data-tile-order="tile-4" data-url="/news/commodities/oil-gas-prices-trump-tariffs-trade-war-production-bofa-2024-11" data-template="default" data-targeting="{"adunit":"marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-4-plus/markets","region":"Desktop In Post Ad","tag":"mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war","template":"default","dvp_spos":"in-content-4-plus","rawvert":""}" data-amazontamsizes="[[728,90],[300,250]]" data-enable-ad-refresher="true" data-refresh-count="0"></div> </div></div><p>"In America, prices determine how much output producers ultimately pull out of the ground, and I think the bigger risk to prices really is coming from tariffs. We have potentially a trade war here," he said, adding that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets" data-analytics-product-module="body_link" rel="">trade war</a> is the main downside risk to demand globally.</p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11?_gl=1*4rar5l*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTk1ODgyNS40MjAuMS4xNzMxOTU5NDEwLjIxLjAuMA..&utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets" data-analytics-product-module="body_link" rel="">US oil production</a> is also already historically high, reaching 13.4 million barrels a day in August to hit a new all-time monthly high.</p><p>There are also some upside risks to commodity prices, Blanch acknowledges.</p><div class="in-post-sticky only-desktop"><div class="ad-callout-wrapper only-desktop"> <div class="ad-label headline-regular only-desktop">Advertisement</div> <div data-bi-ad="" id="gpt-post-markets-desktop_in_post_ad-desktop-fluid-5" class="ad ad-wrapper fluid in-post only-desktop" data-force="" data-type="ad" data-adunit="marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-4-plus/markets" data-secvert="" data-tag="mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war" data-authors="kelly-cloonan" data-region="Desktop In Post Ad" data-responsive="[{"browserLimit":[728,0],"slotSize":[[300,250],"fluid"]},{"browserLimit":[1260,0],"slotSize":[[728,90],[300,250],[800,480],[600,480],"fluid"]}]" data-tile-order="tile-5" data-url="/news/commodities/oil-gas-prices-trump-tariffs-trade-war-production-bofa-2024-11" data-template="default" data-targeting="{"adunit":"marketsinsider.desktop/post/in-content-4-plus/markets","region":"Desktop In Post Ad","tag":"mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war","template":"default","dvp_spos":"in-content-4-plus","rawvert":""}" data-amazontamsizes="[[728,90],[300,250]]" data-enable-ad-refresher="true" data-refresh-count="0"></div> </div></div><p>He points to geopolitical tensions, including those in the Middle East and Ukraine. During his first term, Trump employed strict sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and with Marco Rubio appointed as Secretary of State, that could bring such policies back, Blanch says.</p><p>"He's an anti-Iran, anti-Venezuela hawk. I think that could have an impact," he said, implying that stricter sanctions on those countries could drive up prices.</p><p>"Whatever happens to those geopolitical events that we're going through right now I think will also determine the path," he added.</p> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <div data-bi-ad id="gpt-post-markets-textlink-fluid-1" class="ad ad-wrapper fluid " data-force="" data-type="ad" data-adunit="marketsinsider.all/post/text-link/markets" data-secvert="" data-tag="mi-exclusive,trump,donald-trump,oil,oil-and-gas,gas-prices,oil-prices,trump-tariffs,tariffs,oil-demand,energy-prices,trade-war" data-authors="kelly-cloonan" data-region="textlink" data-responsive="[{"browserLimit":[1260,0],"slotSize":["fluid"]},{"browserLimit":[970,0],"slotSize":["fluid"]},{"browserLimit":[728,0],"slotSize":["fluid"]},{"browserLimit":[0,0],"slotSize":["fluid"]}]" data-tile-order="tile-0" data-url="/news/commodities/oil-gas-prices-trump-tariffs-trade-war-production-bofa-2024-11" 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