Pitfalls in likelihood land - CERN Document Server

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When multiple experimental results are considered, as in global fits, a composite likelihood function is used, constructed from likelihood components for all the measurements included in the fit. In most cases the formulation of a likelihood function necessarily involves some approximations. In this talk we will discuss some challenges and subtleties associated with the construction and use of approximate likelihood functions. In particular, we consider how different levels of detail in the likelihood information can impact the results of global fits, and the associated computational expense. Fowlie, Andrew" /> <meta name="keywords" content="CERN Document Server, WebSearch, CERN Document Server" /> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cds.cern.ch/js/jquery.min.js"></script>  <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cds.cern.ch/img/webnews.css" type="text/css" />  <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cds.cern.ch/js/webnews.js?v=20131009"></script> <meta property="fb:app_id" content="137353533001720"/> <script type="text/x-mathjax-config"> MathJax.Hub.Config({ tex2jax: {inlineMath: [['$','$']], processEscapes: true}, showProcessingMessages: false, messageStyle: "none" }); </script> <script src="/MathJax/MathJax.js?config=TeX-AMS_CHTML" type="text/javascript"> </script>  <meta content="Pitfalls in likelihood land" name="citation_title" /> <meta content="2021/02/18" name="citation_publication_date" /> <meta name="citation_online_date" content="2021/02/19">  <meta content="(Re)interpreting the results of new physics searches at the LHC" property="og:title" /> <meta content="Pitfalls in likelihood land" property="og:title" /> <meta content="website" property="og:type" /> <meta content="website" property="og:type" /> <meta content="https://cds.cern.ch/record/2752546" property="og:url" /> <meta property="og:video:height" content="360" /> <meta property="og:video:width" content="640" /> <meta property="og:video" content="https://lecturemedia.cern.ch/2021/982553c12/982553c12-1000-kbps-874x480-25-fps-audio-96-kbps-44-kHz-stereo.mp4" /> <meta property="og:video:type" content="video/mp4" /> <meta property="og:image" content="https://lecturemedia.cern.ch/2021/982553c12/982553c12-posterframe-655x360-at-5.0-percent.jpg" /> <meta name="twitter:player:height" content="360" /> <meta name="twitter:player:width" content="640" /> <link rel="image_src" href="https://lecturemedia.cern.ch/2021/982553c12/982553c12-posterframe-655x360-at-5.0-percent.jpg" /> <link rel="video_src" href="https://cds.cern.ch/mediaplayer.swf?file=/982553c12/982553c12-1000-kbps-874x480-25-fps-audio-96-kbps-44-kHz-stereo.mp4&streamer=rtmp://wowza.cern.ch:1935/vod&provider=rtmp&stretching=exactfit&image=https://lecturemedia.cern.ch/2021/982553c12/982553c12-posterframe-655x360-at-5.0-percent.jpg"/> <meta name="twitter:player" content="https://cds.cern.ch/video/?"/> <meta content="CERN Document Server" property="og:site_name" /> <meta content="The starting point for a statistically sound reinterpretation of an experimental result is the likelihood function, which encodes the probability of the observed data given an assumed model. When multiple experimental results are considered, as in global fits, a composite likelihood function is used, constructed from likelihood components for all the measurements included in the fit. In most cases the formulation of a likelihood function necessarily involves some approximations. In this talk we will discuss some challenges and subtleties associated with the construction and use of approximate likelihood functions. In particular, we consider how different levels of detail in the likelihood information can impact the results of global fits, and the associated computational expense." property="og:description" />  <meta content="summary" name="twitter:card" /> <style></style> </head> <body class="CERN32Document32Server search" lang="en">  <div id="cern-toolbar"> <h1><a href="http://cern.ch" title="CERN">CERN <span>Accelerating science</span></a></h1> <ul> <li class="cern-accountlinks"><a class="cern-account" href="https://cds.cern.ch/youraccount/login?ln=en&referer=https%3A//cds.cern.ch/record/2752546" title="Sign in to your CERN account">Sign in</a></li> <li><a class="cern-directory" href="http://cern.ch/directory" title="Search CERN resources and browse the directory">Directory</a></li> </ul> </div>   <div role="banner" class="clearfix" id="header"> <div class="header-inner inner"> <hgroup class="clearfix"> <h2 id="site-name"> <a rel="home" title="Home" href="/"><span>CERN Document Server</span></a> </h2> <h3 id="site-slogan">Access articles, reports and multimedia content in HEP</h3> </hgroup> <div role="navigation" id="main-navigation" class="cdsmenu"> <h2 class="element-invisible">Main menu</h2><ul class="links inline clearfix"> <li class="menu-386 first active-trail"><a class="active-trail" href="https://cds.cern.ch/?ln=en">Search</a></li> <li class="menu-444 "><a class="" title="" href="https://cds.cern.ch/submit?ln=en">Submit</a></li> <li class="menu-426 "><a class="" href="https://cds.cern.ch/help/?ln=en">Help</a></li> <li class="leaf hassubcdsmenu"> <a hreflang="en" class="header" href="https://cds.cern.ch/youraccount/display?ln=en">Personalize</a> <ul class="subsubcdsmenu"><li><a href="https://cds.cern.ch/youralerts/list?ln=en">Your alerts</a></li><li><a href="https://cds.cern.ch/yourbaskets/display?ln=en">Your baskets</a></li><li><a href="https://cds.cern.ch/yourcomments?ln=en">Your comments</a></li><li><a href="https://cds.cern.ch/youralerts/display?ln=en">Your searches</a></li></ul></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div>  <table class="navtrailbox"> <tr> <td class="navtrailboxbody"> <a href="/?ln=en" class="navtrail">Home</a> > Pitfalls in likelihood land </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="pagebody"><div class="pagebodystripemiddle"> <div class="detailedrecordbox"> <div class="detailedrecordtabs"> <div> <ul class="detailedrecordtabs"><li class="on first"><a href="/record/2752546/?ln=en">Information </a></li><li class="disabled"><a>Files </a></li></ul> <div id="tabsSpacer" style="clear:both;height:0px"> </div></div> </div> <div class="detailedrecordboxcontent"> <div class="top-left-folded"></div> <div class="top-right-folded"></div> <div class="inside">  <abbr class="unapi-id" title="2752546"></abbr>  <link href="/img/download_and_embed_buttons.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <style type="text/css">  .video_talk_wrapper{ max-width: 640px; 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Geneva</td></tr>  <script type="text/javascript"> /* * Changes the Imprint title to Date - Duration as requested by RQF0820114 * This is a hack not to touch the general imprint format element */ $(document).ready(function() { var collections = 'Indico'; if (collections.indexOf('E-LEARNING') > -1) { $('.cern-imprint-label').text('Date - Duration'); } }) </script> <tr><td class="formatRecordLabel cern-imprint-label"> Imprint </td><td style="padding-left:5px;">2021-02-18. - 1522.</td></tr>  <tr><td class="formatRecordLabel"> Series </td><td style="padding-left:5px;">(<a href="/search?f=490__a&p=LPCC%20Workshops">LPCC Workshops</a>)<br/>(<a href="/search?f=490__a&p=%28Re%29interpreting%20the%20results%20of%20new%20physics%20searches%20at%20the%20LHC">(Re)interpreting the results of new physics searches at the LHC</a>)</td></tr> <tr><td class="formatRecordLabel"> Lecture note </td><td style="padding-left:5px;"> on 2021-02-18T13:00:00<br/></td></tr> <tr><td class="formatRecordLabel"> Subject category </td><td style="padding-left:5px;">LPCC Workshops</td></tr> <tr><td class="formatRecordLabel"> Abstract </td><td style="padding-left:5px;">The starting point for a statistically sound reinterpretation of an experimental result is the likelihood function, which encodes the probability of the observed data given an assumed model. When multiple experimental results are considered, as in global fits, a composite likelihood function is used, constructed from likelihood components for all the measurements included in the fit. In most cases the formulation of a likelihood function necessarily involves some approximations. In this talk we will discuss some challenges and subtleties associated with the construction and use of approximate likelihood functions. In particular, we consider how different levels of detail in the likelihood information can impact the results of global fits, and the associated computational expense.</td></tr> <tr><td class="formatRecordLabel"> Copyright/License </td><td style="padding-left:5px;"><a href="https://copyright.web.cern.ch/">© 2021-2024 CERN</a></td></tr> <tr><td class="formatRecordLabel"> Submitted by </td><td style="padding-left:5px;"><a href="mailto:sabine.kraml@cern.ch">sabine.kraml@cern.ch</a></td></tr> </table> <br/><div><div style="clear: both;"> </div></div> <script type="text/javascript"> // Initially hide: $(".longCaption").hide(); // Allow to toggle visibility: $(".toggleLongCaption").toggle(function(){ $(this).siblings(".longCaption").show('fast'); var thisElem = $(this); thisElem.text(thisElem.text() === "more" ? "less" : "more"); },function(){ $(this).siblings(".longCaption").hide('fast'); var thisElem = $(this); thisElem.text(thisElem.text() === "more" ? 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Pitfalls in likelihood land - CERN Document Server