Germany’s Governance Test After Far-Right Electoral Surge

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bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2020/10/climate.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Introduction Over the last several decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming. But despite intensified diplomacy, the world is already facing the consequences of climate…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Backgrounder</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Lindsay Maizland and <a href="/bio/clara-fong" class="card-article__authors-link">Clara Fong</a></span> <span class="card-article__date"> January 21, 2025</span> <a href="/programs/renewing-america" class="card-article__series"> Renewing America </a> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/defense-and-security" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Defense & Security</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/diplomacy-and-international-institutions" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Diplomacy & International Institutions</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/economics" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Economics</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/energy-and-environment" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Energy & Environment</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/health" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Health</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/human-rights" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Human Rights</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/politics-and-government" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Politics & Government</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/social-issues" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Social Issues</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/regions" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Regions</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article article card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/asia/myanmar" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Myanmar </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/backgrounder/myanmar-history-coup-military-rule-ethnic-conflict-rohingya " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Myanmar’s Troubled History</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2021/02/myanmarbgr.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Introduction Throughout its decades of independence, Myanmar has struggled with military rule, civil war, poor governance, and widespread poverty. A military coup in February 2021 dashed hopes for…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Backgrounder</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Lindsay Maizland</span> <span class="card-article__date"> January 31, 2022</span> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/americas" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Americas</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/asia" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Asia</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/europe-and-eurasia" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Europe & Eurasia</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/global-commons" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Global Commons</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/middle-east-and-north-africa" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Middle East & North Africa</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/oceania" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Oceania</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/sub-saharan-africa" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Sub-Saharan Africa</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/explainers" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Explainers</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article article card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/health" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> Health </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/article/how-new-tobacco-control-laws-could-help-close-racial-gap-us-cancer " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">How Tobacco Laws Could Help Close the Racial Gap on Cancer</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <div class="card-article__image-cover bg-image-switch" data-bg-image=//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/card_landscape_m_380x253/public/image/2023/01/GettyImages-1409152899_Resized_0.jpg.webp></div> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">During the 2020 presidential campaign, Joe Biden promised that his administration would make a “historic effort” to reduce long-running racial inequities in health. Tobacco use—the leading cause of p…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Interactive</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by Olivia Angelino, <a href="/expert/thomas-j-bollyky" class="card-article__authors-link">Thomas J. Bollyky</a>, Elle Ruggiero and Isabella Turilli</span> <span class="card-article__date"> February 1, 2023</span> <a href="/programs/global-health-program" class="card-article__series"> Global Health Program </a> </p> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-list"> <ul class="main-header__secondary-nav-list"> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/backgrounders" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Backgrounders</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/inbriefs" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">In Briefs</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/podcasts" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Podcasts</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/videos" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Videos</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/timelines" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Timelines</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/special-projects" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">Special Projects</a> </li> <li class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item"> <a href="/infoguides" class="main-header__secondary-nav-list-item-link macro-utils__link-to">InfoGuides</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </li> <li class="main-header__nav-list-item main-header__nav-list-item--with-dropdown"> <a href="/research-analysis" class="main-header__nav-list-item-link">Research & Analysis</a> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown"> <button class="main-header__nav-dropdown-toggle"></button> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-container"> <div class="main-header__nav-dropdown-menu-featured"> <div class="main-header__featured"> <div class="main-header__featured-title">Featured</div> <div class="main-header__featured-content"> <section class="card-article card-article-book-report card-article--with-thumbnail"> <div class="card-article__container"> <p class="card-article__topic-tag"> <a href="/diplomacy-and-international-institutions/international-law" class="card-article__topic-tag-link"> International Law </a> </p> <div class="card-article__link-outer-wrapper"> <a href="/book/eastward-westward " class="card-article__link"> <div class="card-article__info"> <p class="card-article__title clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Eastward, Westward: A Life in Law</p> <div class="card-article__image"> <picture> <source media="all and (min-width: 1280px)" type="image/webp" width="169" height="253" data-srcset="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/book_cover_image/9780231215923%20%281%29.jpg.webp 1x"/> <source media="all and (max-width: 1279px) and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/webp" width="169" height="253" data-srcset="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/book_cover_image/9780231215923%20%281%29.jpg.webp 1x"/> <source media="all and (max-width: 1023px) and (min-width: 750px)" type="image/webp" width="169" height="253" data-srcset="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/book_cover_image/9780231215923%20%281%29.jpg.webp 1x"/> <source media="all and (max-width: 749px)" type="image/webp" width="169" height="253" data-srcset="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/book_cover_image/9780231215923%20%281%29.jpg.webp 1x"/> <img width="169" height="253" alt="" loading="lazy" class="lazyload" data-src="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/featured_content_image/public/book_cover_image/9780231215923%20%281%29.jpg.webp" /> </picture> </div> <div class="card-article__caption"> <div class="card-article__caption_wrapper"> <span class="card-article__caption_credit"></span> </div> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div class="card-description card-article__dek clamp-js" data-clamp-lines="4">Few Americans have done more than Jerome A. Cohen to advance the rule of law in East Asia. The founder of the study of Chinese law in the United States and a tireless advocate for human rights, Cohen…</div> <p class="card-article__metadata"> <span class="card-article__publication-type">Book</span> <span class="card-article__authors"> by <a href="/expert/jerome-cohen" class="card-article__authors-link">Jerome A. 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Germany." class="article-header__image-img" /> </div> <figcaption class="article-header__image-caption"> Christian Democratic Union (CDU)’s chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz campaigns in Oberhausen, Germany. <span class="author">Teresa Kroeger/Reuters</span> </figcaption> </figure> <p class="article-header__description">Friedrich Merz looks poised to form a coalition between his center-right alliance and the center-left Social Democrats, but Germany is facing political uncertainty with an emboldened far right. The election comes at a time Europe’s largest economy is confronting steep economic challenges and crisis diplomacy over European security. </p> <p class="article-header__byline"> <span class="article-header__metadata-type article-header__metadata-type--with-definition" > Expert Brief </span><span class="article-header__byline__by">by</span> <a href="/expert/liana-fix" class="article-header__link">Liana Fix</a> and <a href="/bio/jack-silverman" class="article-header__link">Jack Silverman</a> </p> <p class="article-header__date-ttr"> <span>February 24, 2025 4:13 pm (EST)</span> </p> </section> <section class="article-header__section-bottom"> <div class="share-kit share-kit--icon-color-coral share-kit--bg-color-white " data-share-anchor="" data-share-query="" data-share-name="Germany’s Governance Test After Far-Right Electoral Surge" data-share-description="Friedrich Merz looks poised to form a coalition between his center-right alliance and the center-left Social Democrats, but Germany is facing political uncertainty with an emboldened far right. The election comes at a time Europe’s largest economy is confronting steep economic challenges and crisis diplomacy over European security. " data-share-caption="" data-share-picture="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/image/2025/02/GermanyElex_EB_2.jpg" data-share-type="article" data-share-authors="[{"first_name":"Liana","middle_name":"","last_name":"Fix"},{"first_name":"Jack","middle_name":"","last_name":"Silverman"}]" > <div class="share-kit__icons"> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__facebook" onclick="CFR.Share.facebook(this)"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-facebook" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M16 8.049c0-4.446-3.582-8.05-8-8.05C3.58 0-.002 3.603-.002 8.05c0 4.017 2.926 7.347 6.75 7.951v-5.625h-2.03V8.05H6.75V6.275c0-2.017 1.195-3.131 3.022-3.131.876 0 1.791.157 1.791.157v1.98h-1.009c-.993 0-1.303.621-1.303 1.258v1.51h2.218l-.354 2.326H9.25V16c3.824-.604 6.75-3.934 6.75-7.951z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__twitter" onclick="CFR.Share.twitter(this)" data-summary="CFR 140 character message"> <svg viewBox="0 0 1350 1377" class="icon icon-twitter" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M714.163 519.284L1160.89 0H1055.03L667.137 450.887L357.328 0H0L468.492 681.821L0 1226.37H105.866L515.491 750.218L842.672 1226.37H1200L714.137 519.284H714.163ZM569.165 687.828L521.697 619.934L144.011 79.6944H306.615L611.412 515.685L658.88 583.579L1055.08 1150.3H892.476L569.165 687.854V687.828Z" fill="none" class="icon-fill" /> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__linkedin" onclick="CFR.Share.linkedin(this)"> <svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon icon-linkedin" viewBox="0 0 16 16"> <path d="M0 1.146C0 .513.526 0 1.175 0h13.65C15.474 0 16 .513 16 1.146v13.708c0 .633-.526 1.146-1.175 1.146H1.175C.526 16 0 15.487 0 14.854V1.146zm4.943 12.248V6.169H2.542v7.225h2.401zm-1.2-8.212c.837 0 1.358-.554 1.358-1.248-.015-.709-.52-1.248-1.342-1.248-.822 0-1.359.54-1.359 1.248 0 .694.521 1.248 1.327 1.248h.016zm4.908 8.212V9.359c0-.216.016-.432.08-.586.173-.431.568-.878 1.232-.878.869 0 1.216.662 1.216 1.634v3.865h2.401V9.25c0-2.22-1.184-3.252-2.764-3.252-1.274 0-1.845.7-2.165 1.193v.025h-.016a5.54 5.54 0 0 1 .016-.025V6.169h-2.4c.03.678 0 7.225 0 7.225h2.4z" class="icon-fill"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__email" onclick="CFR.Share.email(this)"> <svg viewBox="0 0 23 14" class="icon icon-e-mail-filled" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Email</title> <path d="M.915 0l10.258 7.808L21.673 0H.915zm10.258 8.804L0 .297V14h22.615V.297L11.173 8.804z" class="icon-fill" fill="none"/> </svg> </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__print" onclick="CFR.Share.print(this)"> <svg viewBox="0 0 17 17" class="icon icon-print-filled" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <title>Print</title> <g class="icon-fill" fill="none" fill-rule="evenodd"> <path d="M13.985 4.973V2.92h-2.911V.212a.21.21 0 0 0-.21-.21H3.142a.21.21 0 0 0-.21.21v4.971h10.843a.21.21 0 0 0 .21-.21m2.923 1.062a.202.202 0 0 0-.202-.202H.202A.201.201 0 0 0 0 6.035l.021 7.695c0 .111.09.202.202.202h2.085v-4.97c0-.47.382-.853.852-.853h10.63c.47 0 .851.382.851.852v4.971h2.086a.203.203 0 0 0 .202-.202l-.02-7.695z"/> <path d="M10.774 11.66H6.176a.326.326 0 0 1 0-.65h4.598a.324.324 0 1 1 0 .65m0 2.921H6.176a.326.326 0 0 1 0-.65h4.598a.324.324 0 1 1 0 .65M13.79 8.76H3.16a.201.201 0 0 0-.201.202v7.67c0 .11.09.201.202.201H13.79a.203.203 0 0 0 .202-.202v-7.67a.202.202 0 0 0-.202-.202m.195-6.469h-2.08a.21.21 0 0 1-.21-.21V0l2.29 2.29z"/> </g> </svg> </button> </div> </div> <div class="button-container button-container--with-breakpoints button-container--color-transparent button-container--size-regular button-container--type-multi "> <button class="button-multiple-list bck-none button-container__btn button-share" data-id-button-dropdown="buttons-share"> Share </button> <div class="button-container__dropdown button-container__dropdown-share"> <div id="buttons-share" class="button-container__dropdown-link-row"> <div class="share-kit share-kit--button-view share-kit--icon-color-coral" data-share-anchor="" data-share-query="" data-share-name="Germany’s Governance Test After Far-Right Electoral Surge" data-share-description="Friedrich Merz looks poised to form a coalition between his center-right alliance and the center-left Social Democrats, but Germany is facing political uncertainty with an emboldened far right. The election comes at a time Europe’s largest economy is confronting steep economic challenges and crisis diplomacy over European security. " data-share-caption="" data-share-picture="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/image/2025/02/GermanyElex_EB_2.jpg" data-share-type="article" data-share-authors="[{"first_name":"Liana","middle_name":"","last_name":"Fix"},{"first_name":"Jack","middle_name":"","last_name":"Silverman"}]"> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__facebook" onclick="CFR.Share.facebook(this)"> Facebook </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__twitter" onclick="CFR.Share.twitter(this)" data-summary="CFR 140 character message"> X </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__linkedin" onclick="CFR.Share.linkedin(this)"> LinkedIn </button> <button class="share-kit__hotspot share-kit__email" onclick="CFR.Share.email(this)"> Email </button> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div> <figure class="article-header__image "> <div class="article-header__image-picture"> <img src="//cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_xl/public/image/2025/02/GermanyElex_EB_2.webp" alt="Christian Democratic Union (CDU)’s chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz campaigns in Oberhausen, Germany." class="article-header__image-img" /> </div> <figcaption class="article-header__image-caption"> Christian Democratic Union (CDU)’s chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz campaigns in Oberhausen, Germany. <span class="author">Teresa Kroeger/Reuters</span> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </header> <dl class="article-header-glossary-def"> <dt class="article-header-glossary-def__term">Expert Brief</dt> <dd class="article-header-glossary-def__definition">CFR scholars provide expert analysis and commentary on international issues.</dd> </dl> <div class="main-wrapper__article-body main-wrapper__article-body-explainer"> <aside class="right-rail"> </aside> <div class="highlight-to-share"> <div class="body-content"><body><p><em style="font-style:italic">Liana Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations. Jack Silverman is an intern for Europe Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p> <section class="experts-posts desktop-only"> <div class="experts-posts__title">More From Our Experts</div> <div class="experts-posts__items-container with-3-expert-posts"> <div class="experts-posts__item"> <div class="experts-posts__expert"> <a href="/expert/liana-fix"> Liana Fix </a> </div> <div class="experts-posts__post"> <a href="/article/securing-ukraines-future-what-should-united-states-do"> Securing Ukraine’s Future: What Should the United States Do? </a> </div> </div> <div class="experts-posts__item"> <div class="experts-posts__expert"> <a href="/expert/matthias-matthijs"> Matthias Matthijs </a> </div> <div class="experts-posts__post"> <a href="/expert-brief/what-does-frances-political-instability-mean-europe"> What Does France’s Political Instability Mean for Europe? </a> </div> </div> <div class="experts-posts__item"> <div class="experts-posts__expert"> <a href="/expert/charles-kupchan"> Charles A. Kupchan </a> </div> <div class="experts-posts__post"> <a href="/expert-brief/trumps-tall-task-overcoming-domestic-division-project-strength-abroad"> Trump’s Tall Task: Overcoming Domestic Division to Project Strength Abroad </a> </div> </div> </div> </section> <p>Germany faces uncommon political turbulence in the weeks ahead. Although the center-right alliance, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), came in first in elections on February 23, the 20.8 percent of the vote that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won represented the best electoral performance in the party’s twelve-year history and the strongest far right showing since the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. The AfD’s ascent signals increased frustration with migration policy and Germany’s political establishment, resembling the anti-incumbency populism and rightward shift felt across Europe and North America during elections last year. CDU leader Friedrich Merz’s immediate challenges include a possible realignment of security ties away from U.S. dependence and confronting Germany’s deep economic problems.</p> <h4>Which coalition will govern Germany?</h4><section class="more-on desktop-only "> <p class="more-on__title">More on:</p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/europe-and-eurasia/germany" class="more-on__link">Germany</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/european-union" class="more-on__link">European Union</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/politics-and-government/elections-and-voting" class="more-on__link">Elections and Voting</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/search?keyword=Extremism" class="more-on__link">Extremism</a> </p> </section> <p>The CDU, garnering 28.5 percent of the vote, will likely lead the next German government with Merz as chancellor. Merz has already moved the CDU markedly to the right primarily on migration, partly to weaken the appeal of the AfD. Merz has also accepted votes from the AfD to pass through parliament a motion in the last weeks before the elections in favor of a tougher asylum policy. However, he has repeatedly ruled out a coalition with the far-right AfD in congruence with the <em style="font-style:italic">cordon sanitaire</em>, or “firewall,” against far-right parties. </p> <p>Merz signaled his willingness for coalition talks with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens, excluding the left-wing Die Linke and the right-wing AfD—the only other parties to gain parliamentary representations. The most likely pairing is a “grand coalition” between the CDU and SPD, who have a slim majority in parliament—the same coalition former Chancellor Angela Merkel led for most of her sixteen years in power. The SPD won 16.4 percent of the vote and will likely try to extract concessions from the CDU/CSU on social welfare policies, which Merz has vowed to cut. The SPD will have significant leverage in negotiations, as Merz has no other realistic option for a two-party or three-party coalition without the SPD. The current “traffic light” coalition of the SPD, Free Democratic Party, and Greens, led by SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz, was the first three-way alliance to govern Germany, but it ultimately collapsed due to ideological divisions.</p> <h4>Will the AfD influence national affairs and policy debates?</h4> <p>Now stronger and harder to ignore, the AfD will likely be an even more provocative opposition to the next government, hoping to best position itself to enter a coalition government in the 2029 election. Considering Germany’s history and the catastrophically failed attempt of Germany’s interwar Weimar Republic—which sought to tame Adolf Hitler’s political movement—the country’s “firewall” has long been one of Europe’s best enforced. However, the AfD’s formidable performance, as well as the endorsement of U.S. political figures including Elon Musk, will contribute to a feeling of momentum for far-right parties in Europe, such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France. Support for the AfD could surge if the new government fails to address grievances over migration, cost of living, and a stagnant economy. </p> <section class="experts-posts mobile-only"> <div class="experts-posts__title">More From Our Experts</div> <div class="experts-posts__items-container with-3-expert-posts"> <div class="experts-posts__item"> <div class="experts-posts__expert"> <a href="/expert/liana-fix"> Liana Fix </a> </div> <div class="experts-posts__post"> <a href="/article/securing-ukraines-future-what-should-united-states-do"> Securing Ukraine’s Future: What Should the United States Do? </a> </div> </div> <div class="experts-posts__item"> <div class="experts-posts__expert"> <a href="/expert/matthias-matthijs"> Matthias Matthijs </a> </div> <div class="experts-posts__post"> <a href="/expert-brief/what-does-frances-political-instability-mean-europe"> What Does France’s Political Instability Mean for Europe? </a> </div> </div> <div class="experts-posts__item"> <div class="experts-posts__expert"> <a href="/expert/charles-kupchan"> Charles A. Kupchan </a> </div> <div class="experts-posts__post"> <a href="/expert-brief/trumps-tall-task-overcoming-domestic-division-project-strength-abroad"> Trump’s Tall Task: Overcoming Domestic Division to Project Strength Abroad </a> </div> </div> </div> </section> <h4>Can a new government end Germany’s economic malaise?</h4> <p>Reviving Germany’s economy is the most important challenge Merz faces. The country’s economy is in a dire state due to competition from cheap goings coming from China, high energy prices after Russia’s invasion, and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the slowest-growing economies of the European Union (EU), Germany’s economy has stagnated since 2017 and is now in its third consecutive year of recession. The<em style="font-style:italic"> Economist</em> has again called the country the “<a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/08/17/is-germany-once-again-the-sick-man-of-europe" title="sick man of Europe" target="_blank">sick man of Europe</a>,” and threatened tariffs from the United States would add to the predicament. Merz has vowed to bring energy prices down, cut corporate taxes, and stimulate innovation. He has adopted a tougher tone towards China than his predecessors but has yet to outline his response to China’s challenge to sectors such as Germany’s automotive industry, which has been the backbone of the country’s industrial strength in the last decades.</p> <p>The SPD and conservatives are willing to reform the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/what-is-germanys-debt-brake/a-67587332" title="German debt brake" target="_blank">German debt brake</a> to allow for increased spending on defense and innovation, which could reinvigorate the economy. However, they have missed the constitutional two-thirds majority needed to pass a reform and will have to rely on the Greens and potentially the left-wing Die Linke to do so in the new parliament. Alternatively, they could pass it in the next few weeks while the current parliament is still sitting. </p><section class="more-on mobile-only "> <p class="more-on__title">More on:</p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/europe-and-eurasia/germany" class="more-on__link">Germany</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/european-union" class="more-on__link">European Union</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/politics-and-government/elections-and-voting" class="more-on__link">Elections and Voting</a> </p> <p class="more-on__content"> <a href="/search?keyword=Extremism" class="more-on__link">Extremism</a> </p> </section> <p>On the European level, the conservatives have long opposed EU-wide joint debt to reinvigorate productivity and economic demand in the bloc. However, it is possible that exemptions will be made for joint EU defense spending.</p> <h4>What will the new government mean for Europe and the United States?</h4> <p>A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/03/friedrich-merz-doubles-down-on-gambit-with-german-far-right-in-combative-speech" title="strong supporter" target="_blank">strong supporter</a> of NATO and the European Union, Merz will be well-received in Brussels. He aims to bolster the leadership and cohesion of the “Weimar triangle,” a political cooperation framework with France and Poland. He has also pledged continuous and strong support to Ukraine and has adopted a more forward-leaning approach than Scholz, including by advocating for the delivery of Germany’s long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. </p> <p>Although Merz is a longtime supporter of NATO and strong security ties with the United States, he has spoken surprisingly clearly about the need for Europe to become <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpv4n0dg3v3o" title="step-by-step independent" target="_blank">step-by-step independent</a> from the United States—an approach favored primarily by France in the past—in the face of a Donald Trump administration that is perceived as unpredictable in Europe. Additionally, Merz has questioned whether NATO will still exist in its current form until the alliance’s next summit in The Hague in June. However, he also aims to work together with the Trump administration and is better positioned to do so than his predecessors. Culturally conservative and devoted to free markets, Merz can find points of convergence with Trump, especially when it comes to non-renewable energy policies and tightening migration. Merz’s belief in a strong transatlantic partnership, aspirations for a more assertive German foreign policy, and tougher stance on China could make him an accepted interlocutor for Trump—even after Merz <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-opposition-leader-joins-rebuke-vance-criticism-2025-02-15/" title="sharply criticized" target="_blank">sharply criticized</a> U.S. Vice President JD Vance for “intervening” in Germany’s election campaign.</p> <p><em style="font-style:italic">This work represents the views and opinions solely of the authors. 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