<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?> <feed xml:lang="en-US" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:foaf="http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/" xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#" xmlns:rdfs="http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#"> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:/global/topics/reform-uk-96168/articles</id> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com"/> <link rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="https://theconversation.com/global/topics/reform-uk-96168/articles.atom"/> <title>Reform UK – The Conversation</title> <updated>2024-11-12T13:48:03Z</updated> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/242278</id> <published>2024-11-12T13:48:03Z</published> <updated>2024-11-12T13:48:03Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/populist-parties-thrive-on-discontent-the-data-proves-it-242278"/> <title>Populist parties thrive on discontent: the data proves it</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Anger and resentment have become the accepted currency of populist politicians. Donald Trump is generally the first example that comes to mind, but Europe has its fair share of these leaders too, from Viktor Orban in Hungary and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands to Marine Le Pen in France and Giorgia Meloni in Italy. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;These politicians portray life, the economy, and society in the present as being far worse than in the past. This is because of immigration, globalisation, taxation, corruption, and the excessive influence of politicians and intellectuals. And by positioning themselves as outsiders, they don’t have to accept any role in these wrongs.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Traditionally, when voters felt a government hadn’t delivered for them, they’d punish that government at the ballot box by voting for the main moderate (centrist) opposition party. This dynamic characterised European politics until about 20 years ago. Now, however, the punishment vote goes to populist parties.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This change can be seen by looking at the electoral performance of the largest populist parties in 17 European countries. If we look at elections held around 2000 and then the most recent election, we can see that almost all of those parties have grown in strength. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Countries that were most affected by the &lt;a href="https://www.economicsobservatory.com/why-did-the-global-financial-crisis-of-2007-09-happen"&gt;financial crisis of 2008&lt;/a&gt; and the &lt;a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/Research/research-impact-case-studies/breaking-the-vicious-circle-of-the-eurozone-debt-crisis"&gt;sovereign debt crisis in 2010&lt;/a&gt; – such as Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and Ireland – saw the emergence of populist parties. The governments of these nations had implemented painful recovery programmes, frequently anchored on austere economic policies (such as tax rises and spending cuts). &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;At the beginning of 2000, populist parties were either nonexistent or somewhat irrelevant in these countries. But by the time of the most recent national elections in each, the picture was very different. In Italy, a populist party is now in government. In Greece and Ireland, populists lead the opposition.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Spain and Greece have also both experienced coalition governments that have included radical left populist parties (Syriza and Podemos) in the past 20 years.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;And in countries like Germany, Sweden, and Austria – some of the main recipients of asylum requests during the 2015 European migrant crisis – radical right populist parties have gained particular relevance. Fundamentally nativist parties are in opposition in Austria and Sweden. Perhaps most famously, the far-right AfD is consistently &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/far-right-afd-makes-unprecedented-election-gains-in-west-germany-worrying-national-government-215647"&gt;making gains in regional elections&lt;/a&gt; in Germany and is &lt;a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/"&gt;polling second&lt;/a&gt; nationally. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In my &lt;a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268023001386"&gt;research&lt;/a&gt;, I’ve found that people who report feeling very dissatisfied and unhappy with their lives were up to 10 percentage points more likely to support a populist compared to those who are extremely satisfied.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In 17 countries where far-right populist parties have parliamentary seats, people who reported feeling very dissatisfied with their lives were 7.4 percentage points more likely to support those parties than those who were extremely satisfied.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In seven countries where we find far-left populist parties represented in the national parliament, very dissatisfied people were 8.2 percentage points more likely to support those parties than those who are extremely satisfied.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Countries marked by persistent economic inequality and social divides or which experienced severe economic recessions and austerity prove fertile ground for populists. The financial crisis of 2008 preceded a surge for the far left and the refugee crisis in 2015 a surge for the far right. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Distrust as the vehicle&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The key to understanding why dissatisfied people are more likely to support populists nowadays than in the past lies in trust – or lack thereof it. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Political trust is, in essence, the belief that a party or politician or can (and wants to) improve your life when they take office – or that the institutions of government are capable of doing so. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Departing from a baseline with a relatively high level of trust (which, in a way, was the case before 2000), successive governments in many countries appear to have failed to substantially improve the lives of certain segments of the population.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Among working class people and people without a degree, life satisfaction has not increased. Their median level of satisfaction and happiness did not change at all between 2002 and 2018. What’s more, the gap between this group’s median level of life satisfaction and that of groups with higher education and highly skilled workers has not been reduced. In some cases, it has widened.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The perpetuation of a state of dissatisfaction has gradually eroded the trust of these voters. Many no longer believe that mainstream parties and politicians, if elected, would implement policies to help them. This has fuelled further support for populists. People who are extremely distrustful of politicians and political parties were 14 percentage points more likely to support far-right populist parties compared to those who do trust politicians.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The successes of &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/giorgia-melonis-win-in-italy-proves-even-a-seemingly-successful-government-can-fall-victim-to-populism-191278"&gt;Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/geert-wilders-how-election-victory-in-the-netherlands-for-party-for-freedom-fits-into-a-wider-picture-of-european-radical-right-populism-218477"&gt;Geert Wilders&lt;/a&gt;’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands and the Freedom Party of Austria show that there is no immediate prospect of a downturn in support for populists.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Arguably, however, the most sensible strategy to overturn this trend is for moderate politicians and parties to invest in strategies that alleviate feelings of unresponsiveness among voters. They might perhaps begin with those without a higher education.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Those same parties should focus on restoring their credibility by looking back at how they managed the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis and the 2015 migration crisis with the benefit of hindsight.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/242278/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Rui Silva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>People who are dissatisfied with their lives are more likely to turn away from mainstream political parties.</summary> <author> <name>Rui Silva, Lecturer in Economics, University of East Anglia</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rui-silva-2233710"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/241106</id> <published>2024-10-18T09:09:18Z</published> <updated>2024-10-18T09:09:18Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-tories-may-be-wasting-their-time-trying-to-compete-with-reform-241106"/> <title>Why the Tories may be wasting their time trying to compete with Reform</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;The spectre of the Reform party has been haunting the Tories since the general election. There is a general consensus that Reform split the vote on the right of the ideological spectrum, and this significantly contributed to the Tory defeat.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;And now that the more centrist candidate James Cleverly has been eliminated from the leadership contest, the party is heading in a rightward direction. Both of the two finalists, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenock are on the right of the party and appear to think the next election will hinge on winning votes back from Reform. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But are they right to see Reform as their main threat? The results of the last election are still being analysed but it already looks like our perception of how the rightwing vote played out may be wrong. The perception is that in many constituencies, Reform ate into votes that would have otherwise gone to the Conservatives, costing them parliamentary seats. But that isn’t quite right.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The chart below shows the relationship between the vote shares for the Conservatives and Reform in Britain in the general election, with each dot representing a constituency. The summary line shows that the correlation between the Reform vote and the Conservative vote is positive (+0.21). This means that the two parties were in effect electoral allies rather than rivals. Their vote shares increased in tandem. To be fair, the correlation is modest, so they were rather weak allies, but who can ask for more than that in this electoral climate?&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It’s interesting to contrast this with the relationship between Labour and Conservative voting in the election. Their correlation was strong and negative (-0.54), indicating that they were clearly rivals. When Labour did well, the Conservatives did badly and vice versa. If Reform was a strong rival to the Conservatives, we would see the same pattern.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Rivals or allies? Constituency level votes&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center zoomable"&gt; &lt;a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/625150/original/file-20241011-19-6dgjpn.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=1000&amp;amp;fit=clip"&gt;&lt;img alt="A chart showing that there was a positive correlation between votes for Reform and votes for the Conservatives at the constituency level." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/625150/original/file-20241011-19-6dgjpn.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/625150/original/file-20241011-19-6dgjpn.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=430&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/625150/original/file-20241011-19-6dgjpn.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=430&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/625150/original/file-20241011-19-6dgjpn.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=430&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/625150/original/file-20241011-19-6dgjpn.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=541&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/625150/original/file-20241011-19-6dgjpn.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=541&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/625150/original/file-20241011-19-6dgjpn.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=541&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt;&lt;/a&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;The Relationship between Conservative and Reform Vote Shares in 2024.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;P Whiteley&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/"&gt;CC BY-ND&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;Why does the positive correlation show that Reform was an ally of the Conservatives in the election rather than a rival taking votes that would have gone to the Conservatives? The answer lies in the detail. The two parties did well in the same constituencies but appealed to different demographic groups within those constituencies. If they were campaigning for support in the same group of voters they would be rivals, but for the most part they relied on support from different groups.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This is illustrated in the chart below which looks at the social characteristics of constituencies using data from the 2021 census. It shows how &lt;a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/%20methodologicalpublications/generalmethodology/ukparliamentaryconstituencies"&gt;different groups&lt;/a&gt; supported the two parties in the election.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The chart shows the correlations between the size of a particular group and voting for Reform and the Conservatives in the election. It looks at the 575 parliamentary constituencies in England and Wales, since the Scottish data is not yet available.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The relationships between constituency characteristics and voting in 2024&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center zoomable"&gt; &lt;a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/626465/original/file-20241017-15-k348gj.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=1000&amp;amp;fit=clip"&gt;&lt;img alt="A chart showing how the correlation between Reform and Conservative voting is different between demographics." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/626465/original/file-20241017-15-k348gj.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/626465/original/file-20241017-15-k348gj.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=514&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/626465/original/file-20241017-15-k348gj.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=514&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/626465/original/file-20241017-15-k348gj.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=514&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/626465/original/file-20241017-15-k348gj.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=645&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/626465/original/file-20241017-15-k348gj.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=645&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/626465/original/file-20241017-15-k348gj.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=645&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt;&lt;/a&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;Less in common than you might think.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;P Whiteley&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/"&gt;CC BY-NC-ND&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;We observe large differences between support for the two parties among the different groups. For example, looking at the percentage of people in constituencies over the age of 64, most of whom were retired, we see a big difference. There is a strong positive correlation between this measure and voting Conservative (0.45), indicating that the Tories did well among older people. The opposite is true for Reform, since the relationship is negative (although relatively weak at -0.17). Reform did not rely on older people’s support in the same way as the Conservatives.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sign up for our weekly &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/politics-weekly-170"&gt;politics newsletter&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;, delivered every Friday.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;A similar point can be made about the percentages who worked in professional and higher management occupations. The Tories did well in this group, whereas Reform did badly. Among constituencies with high levels of unemployment, the reverse was true. A high proportion of unemployed people boosted the Reform vote and undermined the Conservative vote.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;If we look at ethnicity, a high proportion of ethnically white people in constituencies helped Reform, but it weakened support for the Conservatives. This seems surprising at first sight until one remembers that many of them voted for Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Greens. The Tories lost a good proportion of the white vote in the election.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The census provided information about the numbers of people who had moved into constituencies from abroad in the previous year. Not surprisingly, given their anti-immigration positioning, large numbers of newly arrived migrants helped both parties, with Reform doing better in these areas than the Conservatives. That said, the correlations were modest and so did not play a large part in explaining the overall results.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/when-did-class-stop-predicting-who-people-vote-for-in-britain-know-your-place-podcast-240235"&gt;When did class stop predicting who people vote for in Britain? Know Your Place podcast&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;Finally, the 2021 census asked people about their national identities and in this case there was an interesting difference between respondents who claimed they were exclusively “English” rather than ‘British’ or some other identity. Englishness helped both parties, but it helped the Conservatives more than Reform. It appears that the Tories are more of an English National Party than Reform.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The next general election is a long way off, but these results mean that if the Labour government fails to deliver growth and curb illegal immigration, it will face a pincer movement from the Conservative and Reform. The Tories will pick up votes in constituencies with a high proportion of prosperous, middle class, retired people and Reform will pick up votes from deprived areas with high levels of young unemployed people.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/241106/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>The two parties are actually fishing in slightly different ponds.</summary> <author> <name>Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/paul-whiteley-136273"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/234422</id> <published>2024-07-11T09:41:27Z</published> <updated>2024-07-11T09:41:27Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/french-and-british-politics-experts-discuss-what-their-election-results-mean-for-the-right-podcast-234422"/> <title>French and British politics experts discuss what their election results mean for the right – podcast</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;A few days after Labour leader Keir Starmer was elected British prime minister on July 4 with a landslide victory, ending 14 years of Conservative-led rule, a coalition of left-wing parties came out on top in the French legislative elections. It was a good week for the left in this corner of Europe. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The French result, which came despite many polls predicting the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) would emerge with the most seats, ushered in an unprecedented period of political uncertainty in France.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In this episode of &lt;a href="https://pod.link/1550643487"&gt;The Conversation Weekly&lt;/a&gt; podcast, we’ve brought together an expert from each country to help analyse the results and what they tell us about the right in French and British politics. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/668f98e2ba4d28775911a337" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the UK, much analysis on election night said it was more the case that the Conservative party lost the election, rather than that Labour won it. The Conservatives went from having 344 seats when parliament was dissolved in May, to 121 seats – its lowest number in history. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;For Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, and an expert in the Conservative party, the result was “very much an anti-incumbency vote … and to some extent, they were the authors of their own misfortune”. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Conservative party became so obsessed with both Brexit and then being able to suppress the support for the populist radical right under Nigel Farage, that it risked turning itself into a populist radical right party or an ersatz version thereof, with the result that it started using the language of the populist right and also obviously adopting some of the measures of the populist radical right. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;Bale says this had two effects. First, it put off a lot of voters who would otherwise have voted Conservative, and second, it pushed voters towards the Reform UK party of Nigel Farage, which won 14% of the overall vote. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;It simply upped the salience of those kinds of issues and actually advantaged in the end the populist radical right itself, because so many voters who were tempted that way prefer the original to the copy. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;After coming first in the first round of the French legislative elections with 33% of the vote, the RN is now discussing what went wrong in the second round. The party’s leader, Jordan Bardella, called the “republican front” of the left and centre parties, which withdrew more than 220 candidates between the two rounds to act as a tactical block against the far-right, an &lt;a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/07/08/far-right-loses-frances-snap-elections-but-sets-sight-on-2027-presidential-vote"&gt;“unnatural political alliance”&lt;/a&gt;. Bardella also acknowledged there were problems with some of the party’s candidates, who it emerged had &lt;a href="https://www.ft.com/content/94ea4445-9e60-4d84-9160-c6cd4d700cbc"&gt;expressed racist or xenophobic views&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But for Safia Dahani, a postdoctoral researcher at the Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne in France who is an expert in the political sociology of the RN, the result is not really a failure for the RN and Marine Le Pen, its presidential candidate. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;They gained more seats than they had in 2022. They are the third force represented in the National Assembly … So it means that they are here and they are settling in to French political life&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;Dahani says: “It’s surprising that the media were surprised to find those candidates within the party.” And she questions the way some journalists and academics have tried to analyse the party in recent years, saying it was like any others, and calling it a populist or radical right party, rather than a far right party. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;The last election showed that it’s not like any others. It’s a far-right party with far-right candidates and also with people that don’t really know how to do professional politics.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;To listen to Tim Bale and Safia Dahani’s analysis of the results, and what might happen next, subscribe to &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901"&gt;The Conversation Weekly&lt;/a&gt; podcast. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;We’re also running a listener survey to hear what you think about the podcast. It should take just a few minutes of your time and we’d really appreciate your thoughts. &lt;a href="https://forms.gle/iFps6iBHejBiveWQA"&gt;Please consider filling it in&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;A transcript of this episode is &lt;a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-conversation-weekly/id1550643487?i=1000661886996"&gt;available on Apple Podcasts&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Newsclips in this episode from &lt;a href="https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x91jwhk"&gt;Australia Community Media&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0021c29/election-2024-keir-starmer-arrives-at-no-10"&gt;BBC News&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="https://x.com/ana_sanchez_b/status/1810025244435869750"&gt;Ana Sánchez via Twitter&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="https://x.com/afpfr/status/1810229007322935297"&gt;Agence France Press&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBWDNraevjw"&gt;AFP News Agency&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msghJcMnw-0"&gt;France 24 English&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Katie Flood. Sound design was by Eloise Stevens, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. Stephen Khan is our global executive editor.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;You can find us on Instagram at &lt;a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/"&gt;theconversationdotcom&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com"&gt;via email&lt;/a&gt;. You can also subscribe to The Conversation’s &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter"&gt;free daily email here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our &lt;a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade"&gt;RSS feed&lt;/a&gt; or find out &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131"&gt;how else to listen here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/234422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Safia Dahani and Tim Bale do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Tim Bale and Safia Dahani discuss the French and UK election results on The Conversation Weekly podcast.</summary> <author> <name>Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gemma-ware-1287528"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/234138</id> <published>2024-07-06T05:43:53Z</published> <updated>2024-07-06T05:43:53Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/disproportional-representation-what-the-uk-election-landslide-would-look-like-under-nzs-mmp-system-234138"/> <title>Disproportional representation: what the UK election landslide would look like under NZ’s MMP system</title> <content type="html">&lt;figure&gt;&lt;img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605264/original/file-20240706-17-fwlj6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;rect=11%2C5%2C3975%2C2648&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=496&amp;amp;fit=clip" /&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;&lt;span class="caption"&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;Getty Images&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/figcaption&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;&lt;p&gt;At first glance, &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/international"&gt;Keir Starmer’s Labour Party&lt;/a&gt; has just put in a performance for the ages in the British general election. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The incoming prime minister controls a comfortable parliamentary majority, Tory bastions have fallen to the left and the right, and any number of &lt;a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/former-uk-pm-liz-truss-loses-her-seat-election-2024-07-05/"&gt;curtains have been brought down&lt;/a&gt; on the careers of Tory MPs and ministers.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Whisper it quietly, but the curtain might also have fallen on the electoral system that delivered Starmer his moment of triumph. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;On closer inspection, in fact, there are several striking similarities between what has been going on at Westminster and the circumstances that led to the &lt;a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/481874/mmp-turns-30-at-this-year-s-election-a-work-in-progress-but-still-worth-celebrating"&gt;adoption of the Mixed Member Proportional&lt;/a&gt; (MMP) system in Aotearoa New Zealand in 1993.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{&amp;quot;tweetId&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;1809210173287694800&amp;quot;}"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;A single-party state&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Manufactured parliamentary majorities? Check. With the exception of 1951, every postwar election held in New Zealand under the old first-past-the-post (FPP) electoral system – the one they still use in the UK – produced a government comprising a single party voted for by a minority of voters but which controlled a majority of parliamentary seats. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Starmer’s Labour has won 63% of the 650 seats in the House of Commons on the basis of just &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jul/04/uk-general-election-results-2024-live-in-full"&gt;33.7% of the vote&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Declining voter support for major parties? Check. In New Zealand, the proportion of all votes won jointly by the two parties that have dominated politics for the better part of a century, National and Labour, began falling in the 1970s. In 2023, they won just 65% of the vote between them. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;On election day the UK Labour and Conservative parties picked up a miserable 57.5% of the vote between them. They may have been rewarded with 82% of all Commons seats, but their tides are going out.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Smaller parties rising in popularity but being punished by FPP? Check. Support for what we used to call minor parties here in New Zealand grew steadily from the 1970s and ‘80s, but under FPP was never rewarded with proportionate numbers of parliamentary seats. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Most famously, in 1981, &lt;a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/27-10-2019/here-for-good-the-long-strange-twilight-of-social-credit"&gt;Social Credit won 20% of the vote&lt;/a&gt; but just two seats. In the UK, the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK won more than 25% of the vote between them – and just 11% of parliamentary seats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Disaffection and low turnout&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Disaffected voters? Check. In New Zealand, much of the impetus behind electoral reform came from voters who had tired of an electoral system that stacked the odds in favour of the two large parties. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;That system routinely delivered single-party majority governments (supported by a minority of voters) who were inclined to throw their executive weight around. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The disgruntlement was also reflected in declining rates of voting. Turnout in the UK was just 60% of eligible voters, the lowest since 2001. One &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jul/05/eleven-charts-that-show-how-labour-won-by-a-landslide"&gt;estimate&lt;/a&gt; put turnout below 50% in 59 constituencies. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Governments out of touch? Check. The referendum that led to a new electoral system in New Zealand came after decades of executive obfuscation, arrogance and overreach from both Labour and National governments. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The UK’s Conservative government, which &lt;a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/inequalities/2024/06/19/the-cost-of-austerity-how-spending-cuts-led-to-190000-excess-deaths/"&gt;unleashed austerity on poor people&lt;/a&gt;, took its country out of Europe on &lt;a href="https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/350m-brexit-bus-nhs-social-care-pledge/"&gt;dubious grounds&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65913184"&gt;behaved disgracefully&lt;/a&gt; during a global pandemic, and tried to create a &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/liz-truss-an-economist-explains-what-she-got-wrong-and-what-shes-actually-right-about-228065"&gt;new form of macroeconomics&lt;/a&gt; in which neither the markets nor governing institutions had any faith, has just been put out of its misery.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center "&gt; &lt;img alt="Nigel Farage speaking" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605265/original/file-20240706-17-vhm494.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605265/original/file-20240706-17-vhm494.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=399&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605265/original/file-20240706-17-vhm494.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=399&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605265/original/file-20240706-17-vhm494.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=399&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605265/original/file-20240706-17-vhm494.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=502&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605265/original/file-20240706-17-vhm494.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=502&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605265/original/file-20240706-17-vhm494.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=502&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party would have 93 seat, not five, under an MMP system.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;Getty Images&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Careful what you wish for&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;There is one final historical parallel. In New Zealand, the Electoral Reform Coalition – a loose alliance which lobbied for a new electoral system – provided a focus for citizens with differing and disparate reasons for feeling grumpy with the FPP electoral system. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;There is an equivalent group in the UK, the &lt;a href="https://election2024.electoral-reform.org.uk/"&gt;Electoral Reform Society&lt;/a&gt; – coincidentally, led by former New Zealand Labour MP and minister Darren Hughes. The manifest disproportionality of the UK’s electoral rules has just given it some very good reasons to push harder for reform.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Consider what this UK election might have produced had it been held under New Zealand’s MMP system. Leaving aside the messy details of &lt;a href="https://ndhadeliver.natlib.govt.nz/webarchive/20240119114109/https://electoralreview.govt.nz/"&gt;thresholds, coat-tailing rules and overhangs&lt;/a&gt;, Starmer would be leading a caucus of 219 MPs, not the 412 he actually has.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Conservatives would have 154 seats (33 more than they won); the Lib Dems would have 79 spots. And Reform UK’s MPs would be sitting in 93 seats, not five, making Nigel Farage the leader of the third-largest party in the Commons.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In this world there is no Labour landslide. In fact, there is no parliamentary majority for Starmer at all – and perhaps no Labour government, which could not get to a parliamentary majority of 326 even with the support of the Lib Dems. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Neither, for that matter, could a Tory–Reform coalition. Instead, there would be a hung parliament and the prospect of a protracted process of government formation.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;For many reasons, of course, things would have been quite different had the 2024 UK election actually been held under an MMP electoral system. But it bears saying, nonetheless, that with electoral law reform, as with most things, you need to be careful what you wish for.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/234138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Richard Shaw does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Arguments for electoral reform in the UK just got stronger with a low Labour vote delivering a massively disproportionate number of seats.</summary> <author> <name>Richard Shaw, Professor of Politics, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-shaw-118987"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/233912</id> <published>2024-07-03T23:15:23Z</published> <updated>2024-07-03T23:15:23Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/tory-wipeout-delivers-landslide-labour-victory-what-the-experts-say-233912"/> <title>Tory wipeout delivers landslide Labour victory: what the experts say</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Labour has won a landslide victory in the UK general election thanks to a wipeout of the Conservatives in England and Wales and the SNP in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats have more than quadrupled their seats to become the third biggest party in parliament, while Reform has won its first four MPs and has also come second in many races.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Here our team of experts explain the key points you need to know about the results of this momentous election.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;iframe title="2024 UK general election results" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-6LQU9" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6LQU9/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="307" data-external="1" width="100%"&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;h2&gt;How the result breaks down&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary, University of London&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;What this election shows us is that the 2017 and 2019 elections were a temporary reversal of a long term trend towards a more fragmented party system in the UK. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The results for the Liberal Democrats, Reform and the Greens, at least in terms of vote share rather than seat share for the latter two, as well as the Conservatives collapse and Labour’s own low vote share, suggest that the UK’s progress towards truly multi-party politics is ongoing, and that the dominance of the two main parties, perhaps more than ever, relies on the country’s continued commitment to first past the post.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Whether that commitment remains a permanent one over the course of the next decade or so will be fascinating to watch.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure&gt; &lt;iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NWZTjTcU-iY?wmode=transparent&amp;amp;start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt;&lt;span class="caption"&gt;A fragmenting party system.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Andrew S. Roe-Crines, Senior Lecturer in British Politics, University of Liverpool&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Conservatives have been removed from government with a definitive and firm verdict from voters that it is time for a change with Labour. At one stage it looked as though the Conservatives could be facing an extinction-level result of fewer than 100 seats. In the end, the Tories managed to secure 119 seats and counting. Labour, in contrast, have been gifted a mandate that will enable Starmer to do anything he wishes to govern Britain (not withstanding the financial situation of the country, which will act as a barrier to delivery).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;There are, of course, certain priorities that voters will expect to see. For example, finding a solution to the Rwanda policy, addressing the financial crisis in higher education and restoring the NHS to a functional service that people can use and be proud of. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The other parties have seen something of a restoration of normality, with the Liberal Democrats returning to their pre-coalition position of strength by securing over 70 seats, alongside the cutting down of the SNP to fewer than 10. These changes return the Liberal Democrats to the position of third party, while the issue of Scottish independence appears permanently rested by the decline of the SNP. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Now joining the smaller parties is Reform, however, the extent they will be able to trouble the government remains to be seen. They could become an irritant for the Conservatives, who now have an important choice to make: renew by learning the lesson of the defeat and becoming more electable, or turning inwards and indulging the ideological comfort zones that would keep them in opposition for longer than necessary.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Tory leadership race starts to take shape&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Victoria Honeyman, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Leeds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We are seeing some of the big hitters from the Conservative party lose their seats, for example, Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North. This leads to an interesting phenomenon where you begin to view the runners and riders for the Conservative party leadership, and you get to see whether or not they’re actually going to be in the party … If you want to challenge for the leadership of the party, then essentially you need to be in parliament.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We’re also seeing other people really begin to set the tone of the campaigns that they want to fight. So for example, Suella Braverman in her speech at the Hustings, talking about the mistakes that the Conservative Party have made.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure&gt; &lt;iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HsIbo17HLfM?wmode=transparent&amp;amp;start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;h2&gt;A big night for Reform&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Francesco Rigoli, Reader in Psychology, City, University of London&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The rightwing populist narrative is alive and well in the UK, and Farage is its unquestionable champion. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Will the Tories seek to compete against Farage over this narrative? Or will they seek an alliance? Major reconfigurations will occur on the right, but it is no longer fanciful to picture Farage winning the next election.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Brexit referendum and the recent elections in Europe and the US demonstrate that rightwing populist parties can suddenly surge in popularity and win elections – Farage aims to follow this trend and he should not be underestimated.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Lone Sorensen, Associate Professor of Political Communication, University of Leeds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Notable in this election is the Reform Party’s preference for a charismatic, personalistic leader in Nigel Farage, who, having won his Clacton seat, is promising “something that is going to stun all of you” in his acceptance speech. Reform is looking set to be able to have a significant impact in the incoming parliament with multiple seats accompanying Farage on the benches. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This will enable the Reform UK leader to capitalise on his tactic of disruption, which is one of his populist hallmarks. We can expect a much more chaotic and difficult-to-control practice of norm-breaking from Farage and his fellow MPs to make life challenging for Starmer and the more sober opposition. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Mark Garnett, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Lancaster University&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Nigel Farage has won in Clacton and Reform is now likely to become the most potent rightwing force in British politics for the next five years at least, attracting the kind of populist-leaning Conservative activists who have been the dominant force in their party since Brexit. As things stand, it is very possible that there will not be a significant party claiming the toxic Tory brand at the next general election.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Greens quadruple Commons presence&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ben Williams, Associate Tutor in Politics and Social Sciences, Edge Hill University&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Green Party has won four of its target seats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Having won &lt;a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8749/CBP-8749.pdf"&gt;only 2.7% of the vote&lt;/a&gt; and one seat in 2019, they were never realistically going to form the next government, especially given the UK electoral system. However, the party’s leadership expected progress, largely on the back of positive local election results over recent years. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;A quadrupling of Green parliamentary representation will therefore be viewed as a welcome development, marking a further fragmentation of the traditional British party system into a more multi-party model.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;What is both interesting and difficult, however is the different types of seats that the Greens have won. Bristol and Brighton have a more liberal, younger and urban electorate, while other seats gained by the Greens are in more rural and socially conservative areas, Herefordshire and Waveney Valley. The party may therefore face challenges in maintaining this fairly diverse electoral base if it is to continue its ongoing upward trajectory.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Labour surges in Scotland&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Eric Shaw, Honorary Research Fellow, University of Stirling&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Scotland is the only part of the UK where Labour has appreciably increased its vote and, in so doing, inflicted a major defeat on the SNP. The seat in which I reside, Stirling and Strathallan, is a measure of the party’s progress. Labour trailed a poor third in 2019 and the seat was not even on the party’s target list in 2024. The Labour candidate, Chris Kane, was chosen very late in the day and had to rely on his own resources. But Labour beat the SNP by around 2 percentage points.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Two major reasons account for Labour’s resurgence: accumulated frustration and loss of confidence in the SNP government and a restoration in faith in Labour. Since the balance of opinion over the constitutional question hasn’t altered, this means that a significant number of pro-independence voters backed Labour. That, in turn, reflects the degree to which many voters switch between Scotland’s two major parties.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Whether or not Labour can consolidate its hold in Scotland in the Holyrood elections will depend heavily on the success of the new Starmer government in tackling the myriad social and economic problems it has inherited.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Sinn Féin becomes Northern Ireland’s largest party&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Peter John McLoughlin, Lecturer in Politics, Queen’s University Belfast&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The general election in Northern Ireland has seen further growth in Sinn Féin’s vote. Though it did not add to its current seven seats, devastating losses for the DUP mean Sinn Féin is now the largest Westminster party in Northern Ireland. In line with its mandate, however, the party will not take its seats in the British parliament. Whilst Irish republicans have compromised on many of their core principles through the peace process, they still refuse to swear allegiance to the Crown, as is required by all Westminster MPs.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Meanwhile, the DUP’s Ian Paisley Jr lost the seat that he and his father before him have together held for 54 years. The party also lost Lagan Valley, previously held by the former DUP leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, to the cross-community Alliance Party. However, the Alliance lost North Down and failed to make the breakthroughs it hoped for elsewhere.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Thus, the electoral map in Northern Ireland shows continued polarisation along traditional lines, though now with nationalists edging into ascendency. This follows the trend of the last Northern Ireland Assembly election, where the growing Catholic population also helped Sinn Féin become the largest party.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Jeremy Corbyn wins his seat as an independent&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of Westminster&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Jeremy Corbyn has retained his seat in Islington North, this time as an independent, with a stonking majority of around 8,000 over his previous party. It’s not surprising that he has won this seat yet again, having represented it for over 40 years now. He is very popular, works hard, and is, I suspect, seen by his constituents as having been treated badly by Keir Starmer. It will be interesting to see how much of a thorn in the side he is for the new, we presume, prime minister in the coming parliament.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure&gt; &lt;iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8WMiXxFfaT0?wmode=transparent&amp;amp;start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;h2&gt;The result in Wales&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Huw Lewis, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, Aberystwyth University&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;All of the results for Wales’s constituencies are now in, and so it’s possible to draw some conclusions about how the election has gone here. In terms of seats, Labour has done extremely well. It’s gained 27 seats out of a total of 32 seats elected here in Wales. And that has included gaining a number of seats back from the Conservatives that were lost at the last election in 2019.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;For its part, the Conservatives have done very badly. They failed to win back any seats here in Wales, and so for the first time since 2001, Wales will be sending no Conservative MPs to the parliament in Westminster. The other seats were then gained by Plaid Cymru, who secured four seats, and one solitary seat was gained by the Liberal Democrats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But the most interesting aspect of the election here in Wales was the percentage of votes gained by different parties. In terms of Labour, while it gained the vast majority of individual seats, we saw its percentage of the vote dropping, in a number of individual seats and also its overall percentage of the vote here in Wales dropped down to 37%. And it’s quite possible that this will be the first UK general election for almost a century where the Labour party in Wales gains a lower percentage of the vote than in England.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In terms of the other parties, while Reform failed to gain any seats here in Wales, we saw strong performance by that party in terms of its percentage of the vote, coming third overall, and coming a strong second in almost a dozen seats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Finally then, while this election has been a very disappointing one for the Scottish National Party in Scotland, it’s been a very positive one for the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru. As mentioned, it gained two seats, bringing its total of MPs to four, but also saw its vote increasing across a number of seats in Wales, meaning that it can look forward to the next devolved election in 2026 with some confidence.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure&gt; &lt;iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9qwYlBS1dc8?wmode=transparent&amp;amp;start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt;&lt;span class="caption"&gt;What happened in Wales.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Seat count and vote share mismatch?&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Phil Tomlinson, Professor of Industrial Strategy and Co-Director of the Centre for Governance, Regulation and Industrial Strategy, University of Bath&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Labour is set to win a large parliamentary majority, although possibly on a &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2x0g8nkzmzo"&gt;lower share&lt;/a&gt; of the popular vote than when losing in 2017. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Labour’s victory therefore might not be as convincing as the parliamentary arithmetic suggests. It is more a case of being a beneficiary of the &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c977m09v60go"&gt;first-past-the-post&lt;/a&gt; electoral system, the widespread rejection of the Conservatives and the surge in support for the Reform Party (which has split the right-wing vote), rather than being swept into power on a wave of new enthusiasm. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Nevertheless, after 14 years, it looks like Labour will now get the chance to govern. They inherit the most &lt;a href="https://ifs.org.uk/news/next-government-will-face-some-toughest-choices-generations"&gt;challenging set of circumstances&lt;/a&gt; of any incoming government since 1974 – a stagnant economy, a cost of living crisis and a high tax burden alongside record high NHS waiting lists, crumbling infrastructure, and a much-diminished public realm. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Labour is pinning its hopes on generating &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/keir-starmer-rejects-tax-and-spend-so-do-labours-plans-for-economic-growth-add-up-232855"&gt;higher economic growth&lt;/a&gt; to solve these problems – though its modest manifesto commitments have left many economists sceptical this can be achieved. There are no short-term fixes, and things may get worse before they get better.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Low turnout&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of Westminster&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It is striking that turnout seems to be substantially down. Let’s take Newcastle upon Tyne Central. Because of boundary changes, we’re not of course comparing exactly like with like, but it’s interesting to note that in the 2019 election the turnout was 67%. Now it’s 53.8%. Every single seat declared so far has had a turnout below 60%. I think this is significant and I also think certainly in these, what are now Labour-Reform battles, we’re likely to see that trend continue.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure&gt; &lt;iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HmvyHJInnOs?wmode=transparent&amp;amp;start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Toby James, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of East Anglia&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;At 58%, turnout is the lowest it’s been since 1918, based on the results in so far. This low turnout could be explained by a perception that the election was a foregone conclusion. Disillusionment with politics and the parties may also have been a factor. Perhaps new voter ID laws have also played a role.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;What the exit poll means&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Victoria Honeyman, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Leeds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure&gt; &lt;iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TEqrmit9HGg?wmode=transparent&amp;amp;start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt;&lt;span class="caption"&gt;Victoria Honeyman on the exit poll.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;h2&gt;An unprecedented result&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Stuart Wilks-Heeg, Professor of Politics, University of Liverpool&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The exit poll suggests Labour’s majority will fall just short of what the party achieved in 1997 and that the &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-the-election-of-mrp-polls-but-what-are-they-and-why-are-they-showing-such-different-results-231528"&gt;projections in MRPs&lt;/a&gt; before the election slightly overestimated levels of Labour support.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But this result needs to be put in context. It represents a far larger number of Labour gains than in 1997. The 1997 landslide was the product of Labour clawing its way back over the course of 14 years from a calamitous electoral defeat in 1983. Keir Starmer started as Labour leader from a position just as bad as 1983, but has managed to turn that around and deliver a landslide within a single parliamentary term. This is absolutely unprecedented. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;iframe title="Exit poll: predicted seats" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-da6nn" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/da6nn/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="228" data-external="1"&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;p&gt;The exit poll also points to a disastrous outcome for the Conservatives. Of course, they had reasons to fear worse, but 131 seats would be even fewer than they got in 1906, previously their record defeat. It will take a lot to turn the party around and there will be bitter recriminations within the party about the scale of this defeat and the reasons for it.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;There was speculation that the Lib Dems could displace the Tories as the second party. This won’t come to pass, but they will be delighted with a result that restores their parliamentary representation to where it was at its peak in 2005.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The SNP looks to be facing a collapse in its support and this will almost certainly benefit Labour. Reform has done better than predicted, based on the exit poll, and if the party does have a dozen or so MPs, it will be able to make an impression at Westminster. The Greens will be disappointed with a haul of only two seats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The early results should confirm whether the exit poll is correct, but there is no grounds to assume that it isn’t. It’s record in predicting the outcome is excellent and there can be no doubt that the outcome is a Labour landslide. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;“Extremely impressive” results for the Liberal Democrats&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Edge Hill University&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This is an extremely impressive Lib Dem performance. It is not since the days of Charles Kennedy that we have seen such a total. This is partly down to targeting – to focusing on those seats which are vulnerable to a Lib Dem attack, partly based on the evidence of some significant byelection wins in the run up to this election.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Lib Dems said that a target in this election was to become the third biggest party in Parliament again. It has achieved this, bringing huge benefits such as an automatic right to questions at PMQs.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In 2019, Lib Dem statements ahead of and during the election were far too ambitious. Ed Davey seems to have learned from this by not over stating the case&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;SNP faces big losses&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Victoria Honeyman, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Leeds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The SNP are not going to have a very good night in Scotland. Now, this will probably be largely overshadowed by the fact that the Conservatives are having a not very good night everywhere. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But if the numbers are to be believed, then the SNP is really paying the price for a number of things. They’re paying the price for the fact that they’ve obviously had a number of issues. There were some legal issues, Nicola Sturgeon has resigned as their leader, they have a new leader. But there’s also an issue about independence, where independence sits in the current debates, and also about the record of the SNP and government in Scotland. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;And therefore I really think that keeping an eye on what is happening with those SNP MPs would be very important and very indicative of where the SNP sits now in Scottish national politics. But also where it sits in UK politics, because it’s been able to claim fairly successfully for the past decade that it is the voice of Scotland. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;If their numbers really do crash, then would they still be able to say legitimately that they are the voice of the Scottish people? Probably not with the same kind of force that they’ve been able to do so far.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure&gt; &lt;iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sxcCMiOdpFA?wmode=transparent&amp;amp;start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt;&lt;span class="caption"&gt;The SNP result.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;h2&gt;‘Clear anger’ among the Conservatives&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Law, Bangor University&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;There’s clear anger amongst some of the big names within the Conservative Party tonight, and former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland has now been defeated in Swindon, a seat he has previously held since 2010. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The uncharacteristic anger was clear in his passionate defeat speech. His remarks tonight on the BBC that he’s had enough of circus politics are an indication of the fury that some within the party now hold towards their colleagues. The gloves are now evidently off, and scathing thoughts are being exchanged. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;He is, after all, normally a mild mannered politician. His remarks that the Conservative Party need to wake up quickly and wake up now, and how he’s fed up of personal agendas of individuals, are clear that all is not well. He attributes his comments of ill discipline and unprofessional campaigning to former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and others, and offers a scathing assessment of how his own colleagues need to get to grips with their portfolios.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;What is telling is that the night is not over yet and Conservatives are already looking at what the problems were within their own campaign. Buckland notes that he felt what was missing from the Conservative campaign was a narrative for younger voters to get behind. With the Conservatives predicted to slump to 131 MPs tonight, the lowest number ever, efforts to regroup and unite the Tory party are going to be extremely challenging following this election result.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure&gt; &lt;iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NQz4opII4do?wmode=transparent&amp;amp;start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt;&lt;span class="caption"&gt;Conservative anger.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;h2&gt;George Galloway out in Rochdale&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Parveen Akhtar, Senior Lecturer in Politics, History and International Relations, Aston University&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Only 127 days after being elected as MP for Rochdale, George Galloway has lost the seat to Labour’s Paul Waugh. The controversial leader of the Workers Party of Great Britain, who only months earlier overturned a near 10,000 majority to win Rochdale, has lost by 1,440 votes. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;After being expelled from the Labour Party in 2003 for his criticism of the Iraq War, Galloway has found success in capitalising on anger, particularly from Muslim voters, over foreign policy.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Using his campaign to criticise military action in the Middle East won Galloway the London constituency of Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005. Galvanising support around the issue of Gaza won him Bradford West in 2012. Galloway won Rochdale in February by again mobilising the Muslim vote.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conflict in the Middle East is important in constituencies with a significant Muslim population. But while capitalising on this has provided Galloway with a winning formula, it is also a short-term one. Since leaving the Labour Party over two decades ago, Galloway has never been re-elected. Tonight means his search goes on.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{&amp;quot;tweetId&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;1809040503456878742&amp;quot;}"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sign up for our weekly &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/politics-weekly-170"&gt;politics newsletter&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;, delivered every Friday throughout the campaign and beyond.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; </content> <summary>Follow along with The Conversation’s coverage of the general election results.</summary> <author> <name>Avery Anapol, Commissioning Editor, Politics + Society</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/uk/team#avery-anapol"/> </author> <author> <name>Grace Allen, Education and Young People Editor</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/uk/team#grace-allen"/> </author> <author> <name>Laura Hood, Senior Politics Editor, Assistant Editor, The Conversation (UK edition)</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/uk/team#laura-hood"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/233151</id> <published>2024-07-03T12:31:55Z</published> <updated>2024-07-03T12:31:55Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/tactical-voting-why-is-it-such-a-big-part-of-british-elections-233151"/> <title>Tactical voting: why is it such a big part of British elections?</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Voters across the UK will cast their ballots on July 4 to decide who will form the next government. Under the UK’s voting system, known as first past the post, voters choose one candidate standing in their constituency. Whoever wins the most votes out of those candidates becomes a Member of Parliament.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Although it is usually assumed that voters choose the candidate or policies that best reflect their values, this is &lt;a href="https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tactical-voting-general-election-tory-labour-lib-dem-vr0gkvwqm"&gt;changing&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;According to polling, &lt;a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-maintains-lead-conservatives-falling-back-equal-their-lowest-ever-vote-share"&gt;19%&lt;/a&gt; of voters at this election will be casting their ballots with the intention of keeping another party out, rather than voting their desired party in. These voters will opt for a “compromise” candidate – someone whose politics they may not share but is better placed to defeat their least preferred candidate. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The number of these voters has increased in recent elections. Between the 2017 and 2019 general elections, for example, the number of voters intending to vote tactically &lt;a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/media-centre/press-releases/new-bmg-poll-finds-almost-a-quarter-of-voters-planning-to-vote-tactically-in-general-election/"&gt;rose&lt;/a&gt; from one in five to one in four. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The influx of tactical voting websites, campaign groups, and their social media presence, has made this more of a possibility. Ahead of voters going to the polls this week, one centre left campaign group has created a voting &lt;a href="https://www.bestforbritain.org/journalist_toolkit_getvoting"&gt;hitlist&lt;/a&gt; of 451 constituencies where the Conservatives can be voted out. The aim is to encourage voters to cast their ballot in a way that delivers the heaviest possible election defeat to the Conservatives.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Although tactical voting disrupts our traditional understanding of how democracy is supposed to work, it is also a unique feature of the UK’s first past the post (FPTP) voting system.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-left "&gt; &lt;img alt="Voters submitting their votes into a ballot box." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604374/original/file-20240702-19-epgo1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=237&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604374/original/file-20240702-19-epgo1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=600&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604374/original/file-20240702-19-epgo1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=600&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604374/original/file-20240702-19-epgo1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=600&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604374/original/file-20240702-19-epgo1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=754&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604374/original/file-20240702-19-epgo1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=754&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604374/original/file-20240702-19-epgo1e.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=754&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;Voters will head to the polls this week.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/vote-ballot-box-halftone-collage-group-2389114741"&gt;Shutterstock/Lana Sham&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;FPTP is a “winner takes all” voting system. A candidate can win if they receive &lt;a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/media-centre/press-releases/new-research-one-in-six-seats-in-the-commons-effectively-unearned-under-warped-voting-system/"&gt;fewer votes&lt;/a&gt; than the sum total of all the other opponents. At the national level, parties have won majorities in parliament without winning a majority of votes.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Other countries, such as &lt;a href="https://www.bmi.bund.de/EN/topics/constitution/electoral-law/voting-system/voting-system-node.html"&gt;Germany&lt;/a&gt; operate voting systems that enable proportional representation and there are growing calls for reform in this direction in the UK. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Tactical voting is predominantly discussed on the left of British politics and in 2024, is aimed squarely at removing the Conservative government from power. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;And while we can’t be sure how much of an effect tactical voting has on general elections, a series of byelections held since the 2019 general election have seen tactical voters come out in force. They’ve shown that if the tactical operation is well-organised and votes are distributed effectively, it can overcome the inherent distortions of FPTP, at least at the local level.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Liberal Democrats saw remarkable gains in the Tory-held seats of &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-66748911"&gt;North Shropshire&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/24/tories-lose-byelections-wakefield-tiverton-honiton-labour-lib-dems"&gt;Tiverton and Honiton &lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-66265117"&gt;Somerton and Frome&lt;/a&gt;, while Labour’s vote share decreased. Conversely, where the Liberal Democrat vote declined in other constituency byelections throughout the parliament, Labour made gains in &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/24/tories-lose-byelections-wakefield-tiverton-honiton-labour-lib-dems"&gt;Wakefield&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/21/uk-byelection-results-labour-tories-selby-ainsty-uxbridge"&gt;Selby and Ainsty&lt;/a&gt;, as well as recently in &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-68942651"&gt;Blackpool South&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;If the successes from these byelections is repeated in the general election, we could see tactical voting truly deliver some knockout blows for the Conservatives.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;That said, Labour’s &lt;a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/"&gt;lead&lt;/a&gt; in the polls has left voters feeling confident that the Conservatives will lose anyway, so some may feel less urgency about voting tactically in 2024, especially as the campaign has worn on. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The optimum conditions for tactical voting at an election are when there is a single issue that becomes central to voters (like Brexit or Scottish independence), or when a tight competition between parties puts greater emphasis on the winner in each constituency. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;At this election, though, Labour’s strong poll lead presents an obstacle to tactical voting. If voters think their local Labour candidate can beat the Conservative candidate, they will be less likely to vote tactically. With many feeling that Labour will form the next government, this phenomenon could be widespread across the UK.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Uniquely to British general elections, however, FPTP means there will be plenty of voters who wish they could just vote for what they want – rather than against what they don’t.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233151/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Tactical voting is a unique feature of the UK’s first past the post voting system.</summary> <author> <name>Thomas Lockwood, PhD Candidate, York St John University</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/thomas-lockwood-1539692"/> </author> <author> <name>Christopher Kirkland, Senior Lecturer in Politics, York St John University</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christopher-kirkland-143333"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/233698</id> <published>2024-07-01T16:23:26Z</published> <updated>2024-07-01T16:23:26Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/why-nigel-farages-anti-media-election-interference-claims-are-so-dangerous-233698"/> <title>Why Nigel Farage’s anti-media election interference claims are so dangerous</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;As the &lt;a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-nigel-farage-channel-4-general-election-b2571145.html"&gt;headlines about alleged racism&lt;/a&gt; in Reform UK pile up, party leader Nigel Farage has stepped up his own campaign to paint the media as undemocratic. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;With a week to go before election day, a Channel 4 undercover investigation caught a Reform canvasser on camera using racist language about the prime minister Rishi Sunak, and saying the army should “just shoot” asylum seekers crossing the Channel. Reform has now dropped support for three of its candidates over a number of offensive comments, and a Reform candidate has &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgk44k4mzxo"&gt;defected to the Conservatives&lt;/a&gt; over the row.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage described the Channel 4 investigation as a “stitch-up on the most astonishing scale”. According to Farage, the canvasser was a paid actor set up by the broadcaster to make his party look racist. Reform has since &lt;a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-nigel-farage-channel-4-general-election-b2571145.html"&gt;reported Channel 4 to the Electoral Commission&lt;/a&gt;, accusing the broadcaster of election interference.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;When Farage appeared on BBC’s Question Time the following day, audience members challenged him about the racist comments and asked why his party attracted extremists. Farage subsequently &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/29/nigel-farage-to-boycott-bbc-over-biased-question-time-audience"&gt;attacked the BBC&lt;/a&gt; for having “rigged” the audience. The organisation was a “political actor”, he claimed.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Speaking at a Reform rally in Birmingham over the weekend to an audience of 4,500 Reform supporters and canvassers, Farage attacked both the BBC and Channel 4 as partisan institutions not worthy of the label of public service broadcasters.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Accompanied by pyrotechnics and Union Jacks, Farage implied that the broadcasters, as part of the establishment, were conspiring to stop Reform in its tracks for fear of its success. He rehearsed this narrative in &lt;a href="https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1807024727283675211"&gt;posts on X&lt;/a&gt;, framed as a “&lt;a href="https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1807001136546640200"&gt;POLITICAL INTERFERENCE ALERT&lt;/a&gt;”.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This strategy of media populism is a mirror of US president Donald Trump’s rhetoric, and dangerous for democracy. It doesn’t just paint broadcasters as a scapegoat for Farage’s own electoral failure, it sets the scene for complaints of election rigging when the results come in on Friday morning. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Fake news, populist reality&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;It may be Trump who brought the phrase “fake news” into the mainstream, but Farage has long attacked the supposedly conspiring media elite as part of his populist approach.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Since his election to the European Parliament in 2014, Farage (then leader of Ukip) has repeatedly accused the BBC of &lt;a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-65756-7"&gt;bias and double standards&lt;/a&gt;. He has presented mainstream media as distorting reality (especially in connection with unfavourable representations of himself) in a way that interferes with people’s ability to practise their democratic rights. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;He appears to have ramped up this rhetoric in the final weeks of the election campaign. Just in the last week, Farage has accused &lt;a href="https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804918762283425805"&gt;The Daily Mail&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href="https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804565965679845504"&gt;Google&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804120685796532641"&gt;Ofcom&lt;/a&gt; of “political interference” and “election interference” for various alleged mis- and under-representations.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-nigel-farage-taking-on-the-daily-mail-233300"&gt;Why is Nigel Farage taking on the Daily Mail?&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;He has now added TikTok to the list, saying they had suspended the live feed from Sunday’s rally because of alleged hate speech. This language and his repeated use of the term “rigged” to describe BBC’s Question Time audience are unlikely to be incidental. They are a striking imitation of Trump’s repeated accusations of the “rigged election” in the US since 2020. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This populist tactic serves two purposes. First, it uses Farage’s status as supposed persona non grata in establishment media circles as proof of his unorthodox truth-telling. As the Reform UK chairman, Richard Tice, introduced Farage at the rally, he complimented Farage’s bravery to stand up against a conspiring establishment, “to tell the truth … against all the pressure to stick at it”. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{&amp;quot;tweetId&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;1806723494865969256&amp;quot;}"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This self-portrayal of a certain truth-telling faculty is &lt;a href="https://academic.oup.com/ct/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ct/qtae013/7695733"&gt;characteristic of populism&lt;/a&gt;. Untruthful claims and disinformation – such as some of Reform’s claims about &lt;a href="https://www.desmog.com/2024/06/27/five-top-misleading-climate-claims-2024-uk-election-campaign/"&gt;climate change&lt;/a&gt; are presented as truth and often taken as such by supporters because they appear to be authentically performed. This authenticity-based understanding of truth is what Trump’s then-campaign manager Kellyanne Conway famously referred to as &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/22/donald-trump-kellyanne-conway-inauguration-alternative-facts"&gt;“alternative facts”&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the story populists invent about political reality, the truthteller/leader is a saviour of the good people who are being misled by a self-interested and lying political and media establishment.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Preparing for the future&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The second purpose of Farage’s tactic of anti-media populism is the long game. By accusing the media of interfering in his electoral success, he can claim after the election that his views have far greater support than the vote suggests. He can then use this claim to build even greater momentum behind him for the following election in five years’ time. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage has openly declared his intention to become prime minister in 2029 and to build a movement to that effect during the &lt;a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/17/nigel-farage-plan-run-for-prime-minister-2029/"&gt;upcoming parliament&lt;/a&gt;. His increasingly Trumpian rhetoric – even launching his campaign with a promise to &lt;a href="https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1797665496990654769"&gt;“make Britain great again”&lt;/a&gt; – and the threat this poses to British democracy should be foremost on voters’ and the incoming government’s minds in this election and beyond.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233698/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Lone Sorensen receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council, grant number AH/X011631/1. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Farage may be setting the scene for complaints of election rigging when the results come in.</summary> <author> <name>Lone Sorensen, Associate Professor of Political Communication, University of Leeds</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lone-sorensen-1294731"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232242</id> <published>2024-06-27T17:14:13Z</published> <updated>2024-06-27T17:14:13Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/nigel-farages-populism-distracts-from-what-people-in-clacton-are-really-proud-about-232242"/> <title>Nigel Farage’s populism distracts from what people in Clacton are really proud about</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Clacton used to be famous for something other than Nigel Farage. As well as its golden age as a seaside resort, back in the 1960s, it was a place to experience vibrant youth culture. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Radio Caroline, the pirate radio broadcaster was anchored offshore. Local residents would park up on the beach and flash their car lights at the ship. Local historian, Roger Kennell, even remembers &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-57934689"&gt;boat trips to see Caroline&lt;/a&gt;, where “young people would toss song requests on deck”. It was something to be proud of on the north Essex coast.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Today, Farage, leader of Reform UK, has chosen Clacton in his eighth attempt to get elected to parliament. So-called “left behind” places are considered fertile ground for populist politics, and so Farage’s selection of Clacton is of little surprise. But populism does not offer a voice to the town. Instead it helps to silence the harsh experience of seaside decline, and cuts off avenues for people to articulate feelings of genuine pride in the places they live. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage is adeptly exploiting a disconnect between superficial perceptions of tourists visiting for an ice cream when the sun’s out and Clacton’s economic woes. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We’ve been conducting &lt;a href="https://event.ac2024.exordo.com/presentation/1154/from-economic-to-emotional-geography-understanding-the-importance-of-the-mezzo-level-in-community-development"&gt;research&lt;/a&gt; on the heritage and emotional geography of the Clacton constituency, including Walton-on-the-Naze and Frinton-on-Sea. Rather than viewing the area in terms of deficit and decline, we need to explore how existing local pride can be more effectively shared in the community and with tourists. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Seaside decline&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Clacton’s golden age started in the late 1800s. Hordes of London-based bathers arrived on pleasure steamers, mooring on the &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-57934689"&gt;purpose-built pier&lt;/a&gt;. A Butlins holiday camp opened in 1938. By 1970, however, cheap holidays abroad badly affected seaside economies. Butlins closed in 1983, exacerbating Clacton’s decline. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Today, wages, employment, and life expectancy are low, and crime is high. The constituency is mostly white and markedly older than most places in Essex. Considerable socioeconomic disparities are evident across the constituency. There’s a remarkable &lt;a href="https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/frinton-vs-walton-shocking-disparity-3044286"&gt;£100,000 difference&lt;/a&gt; between property prices in Frinton, considered upmarket, and nearby Walton. Good rail links to London and a workforce employed by an expanding healthcare industry are influencing socioeconomic and cultural diversity.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center "&gt; &lt;img alt="Clacton pier with fairground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/603382/original/file-20240627-17-zbactc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/603382/original/file-20240627-17-zbactc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=400&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/603382/original/file-20240627-17-zbactc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=400&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/603382/original/file-20240627-17-zbactc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=400&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/603382/original/file-20240627-17-zbactc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=503&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/603382/original/file-20240627-17-zbactc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=503&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/603382/original/file-20240627-17-zbactc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=503&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;Stereotypes of Clacton overshadow more hidden heritage.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/marcbarrot/51998789042/in/photolist-2ndXony-4MxqSA-JP37i5-JS6Zsp-4MtdDg-aLBicD-4Mxryb-aLBcnk-eVc99m-eVbTs3-b84X1-aLBbgF-4MtdLk-JozV9-4Mxpwo-4Mxr5f-4Mxprh-2neNrsL-2nitamR-2negqPQ-62Qmup-JHBB5i-4Mxre7-62UBw5-62QmsB-mobqu-HAB41q-firXT2-m4sH3-2neAjQ3-m4sG9-2nekj18-5hZ6Pr-m4rD6-2mJ9LVe-pjPWVp-mobqs-fiGbmE-mobqw-2noDRWH-aLBhzZ-aLBfFD-2nze5nE-aLBgRe-aLBh3i-aLBjci-6e2dcY-m4rFg-aLBc1F-3hAX3T"&gt;Marc Barrot/flickr&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"&gt;CC BY-NC&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Conservative government has attempted to boost civic pride in recent years, but &lt;a href="https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/pride-in-place/"&gt;research&lt;/a&gt; into these policies exposed differences between rhetoric and reality. &lt;a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/61fd3c71d3bf7f78df30b3c2/Levelling_Up_WP_HRES.pdf"&gt;Proposals&lt;/a&gt; to recalibrate deep-rooted geographic inequality rely on crude contrasts between “left behind” places, bereft of pride, and “steaming ahead” places, registering high levels of satisfaction with heritage, culture, and environment. Researchers challenge the idea that feelings like pride can be quantifiably measured. Pride is haphazard, immeasurable and often invisible.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Hidden heritage&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Our &lt;a href="https://culturalengine.org.uk/case-study/resorting-to-the-coast-tendring-coastal-towns/"&gt;research into the constituency&lt;/a&gt; aimed to challenge stereotypical perceptions of &lt;a href="https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&amp;amp;q=tendring+essex"&gt;the coastal towns&lt;/a&gt; of Tendring, the district where Clacton is situated.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Despite Butlins’ demise, we found Clacton’s image as a tourist destination still resonates with ordinary people. The offer of affordable seaside fun gives an important boost to the seasonal economy, but visitors increasingly perceive the town as lacking in the vibrancy of its past. For example, an exhibit in the local museum depicts a seaside town “unlikely to regain its former glory”. When surveyed, many tourists referred to it as a place to “revisit memories” rather than celebrate the future. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Compared to similar size towns in the UK, Clacton has a limited heritage and cultural offer. It has a wonderful but very small museum space run by active volunteers in the public library. There’s room for about five visitors at a time, and it’s open just twice a week. Sadly, other venues where Clacton’s hidden heritage was celebrated have shut, such as museum dedicated to Pirate Radio which closed in 2016. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Between &lt;a href="https://www.tendringcoastalheritage.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final-Programme.pdf"&gt;2018&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="https://www.tendringcoastalheritage.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/RTTC-Conf-Programme.pdf"&gt;2019&lt;/a&gt;, community groups came together to discuss neglected coastal heritage assets in the area. As in other &lt;a href="https://www.fpg.org.uk/event/symposium-food-cultures-a-food-plan-for-southend/"&gt;Essex seaside towns&lt;/a&gt;, we found a rich seam of untapped heritage, culture, and art. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;These included emotional ties to East London, recent coastal oral histories along Jaywick Sands, places of architectural note, and a vibrant, yet mostly underexposed, social history. Unlike conspicuous seaside attractions such as piers and arcades, hidden heritage brings a unique sense of community pride. There’s also a rich history of environmental concern dating back to publications on coastal erosion in the 1970s that relate to recent seaside initiatives to &lt;a href="https://www.un-sealed.co.uk/pages/about-us"&gt;tackle plastic pollution&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Seaside futures&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Yet, these sources of pride are often unrepresented and undervalued in seaside economies. Left-behind places are not lacking in pride, but they struggle to find venues to put that pride on display. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Our current research is looking at ways to &lt;a href="https://www.essex.ac.uk/news/2024/05/10/essex-students-have-unique-opportunity-to-shape-museum-celebrating-local-seaside-towns"&gt;develop a social history museum&lt;/a&gt; to help rectify this in the constituency. We’re starting to map places, stories and events people are proud of locally, using archives and participatory workshops with current residents. Local people are sharing personal archives, like postcards, sporting memories and alternative seaside stories. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;To create meaningful venues that local people can take pride in, we need to reject current top-down government funding which forces communities to compete for grants. &lt;a href="https://culturalengine.org.uk/re-imagining-pride-in-place-at-the-mezzolevel/"&gt;One idea we’ve put forward&lt;/a&gt; is a partnership between local community groups, authorities, universities, and social enterprises to get closer to realising, valuing, and responding to expressions of pride. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;By standing in Clacton, Farage has certainly brought attention to the constituency, whether or not the local residents like it. But when the election is over, and whoever wins, the town needs support to help it express and celebrate its unique pride in place.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/232242/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Its golden age as a seaside town may be over, but left behind places like Clacton are not lacking in pride.</summary> <author> <name>Tony D Sampson, Reader in Digital Communication, University of Essex</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tony-d-sampson-1530439"/> </author> <author> <name>Andrew Branch, Senior Lecturer in Media and Communication , University of East London</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-branch-1533434"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/233296</id> <published>2024-06-27T13:28:35Z</published> <updated>2024-06-27T13:28:35Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/the-conservatives-may-regret-campaigning-to-keep-first-past-the-post-in-2011-233296"/> <title>The Conservatives may regret campaigning to keep first past the post in 2011</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;As the UK prepares for the election in July, the polls do not make pleasant reading &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726"&gt;for the Conservative party&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;While some are &lt;a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-conservatives-polling-below-100-seats-survey-shows/"&gt;predicting catastrophic losses&lt;/a&gt;, others think the Tories could be &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/has-reform-really-overtaken-the-tories-in-the-polls-and-does-that-mean-it-could-beat-them-on-july-4-232234"&gt;overtaken by Reform UK&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;With a quarter of their 2019 voters predicted to &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49652-farage-joining-the-fray-has-firmed-up-reform-uks-grip-on-tory-defectors"&gt;vote for Reform in July&lt;/a&gt;, the Conservatives will be thinking about how this could have been avoided.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;One option would have been to choose a different side of history in a divisive referendum – the 2011 vote on electoral reform. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In that campaign, the Conservatives were opposed to introducing an alternative vote system (AV) to replace the current first past the post system of voting. Their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, had been the ones who pushed for the referendum to be held, and led the campaigning on the other side.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;First past the post hands constituencies to whichever candidate wins the most votes, regardless of whether they took the overall majority of votes (the combined votes for other candidates could add up to more than the winner). This system means that candidates can, and &lt;a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/media-centre/press-releases/new-research-one-in-six-seats-in-the-commons-effectively-unearned-under-warped-voting-system/"&gt;often do&lt;/a&gt;, win constituencies after securing fewer than 50% of the vote.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;What alternatives are there?&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/rp11-44/"&gt;AV&lt;/a&gt; is a form of preferential voting widely used in Australia, including &lt;a href="https://aec.gov.au/Voting/How_to_vote/Voting_HOR.htm"&gt;national elections for the House of Representatives&lt;/a&gt; (the Australian equivalent of the House of Commons).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the version of AV proposed for the UK, voters would have to rank candidates in order of preference on their ballot paper. For example, if there were five candidates, voters would rank them from one to five, according to who they preferred. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;When counting the votes, the number of first preference votes would be counted, and if these gave no candidate more than 50% of the overall vote, the candidate with the lowest number of votes would be eliminated. The second preferences of that candidate would then be distributed to the remaining candidates. This process would be repeated until one candidate gained more than 50% of the preferences and was then declared winner.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;David Cameron, prime minister at the time of the AV referendum, argued that fringe party supporters could have greater &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/feb/18/av-reform-david-cameron"&gt;influence on election outcomes.&lt;/a&gt; under such a system:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;If you vote for a mainstream candidate who is top of the ballot in the first round, your other preferences will never be counted. But if you vote for a fringe party who gets knocked out, your other preferences will be counted.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;After a campaign that saw the British public somewhat bamboozled by what either side was arguing for, the country ultimately voted 67.9% &lt;a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/rp11-44/"&gt;against&lt;/a&gt; introducing AV.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;As the party that has won the most elections under first past the post, the Conservatives saw no reason to abolish it. And when they continued to benefit from the system in every election since 2011, they would would have felt confident in that decision. For a long time, it has been other parties – such as the Liberal Democrats – who would have had the most to gain from electoral reform. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Now, however, first past the post is now threatening to reverse the Conservatives electoral fortunes, with &lt;a href="https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp-19-june-2024/"&gt;some predicting&lt;/a&gt; the Labour party could win a majority of over 150 seats, on potentially quite a small proportion of the overall national vote.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/a-labour-landslide-could-make-this-the-most-disproportionate-election-since-universal-suffrage-time-for-electoral-reform-228236"&gt;A Labour landslide could make this the most disproportionate election since universal suffrage – time for electoral reform?&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;The rise of Reform UK has exacerbated this, challenging the Conservatives’ ability to hold onto right-leaning voters.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform is not, of course, a fan of first past the post either. In a system where the candidate with the most votes wins, Reform is unlikely to win &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide"&gt;many, if any, seats&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But while first past the post limits Reform at the national level, it empowers its candidates to take chunks out of mainstream party support. If voters who have previously voted for the Conservative party now vote for Reform, this will cut the total number of votes for the Conservatives, favouring Labour or the Liberal Democrats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Under the AV system, the threat of Reform taking Conservative seats would be reduced. In seats where Reform candidates would get eliminated, the Conservative vote would likely be bolstered by being Reform voters’ second preference, above Labour and the Liberal Democrats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Another threat from first past the post to the Conservatives at this election is &lt;a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/what-is-tactical-voting-and-why-is-it-bad-for-democracy/"&gt;tactical voting&lt;/a&gt;. Because the current system only offers one preference, the public often chooses to vote just to remove the incumbent party, rather than who they would prefer to support. The Conservatives may fall victim to this, with prominent figures such as Carol Vorderman and websites such as &lt;a href="https://stopthetories.vote"&gt;StopTheTories&lt;/a&gt; encouraging the public to vote tactically and remove Conservative MPs.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But if the election was taking place under AV, tactical voting would be unnecessary because voters’ preferences get taken into account if their first choice candidate is eliminated. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Modelling after the 2015 election suggested that the Conversative party would have been &lt;a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/would-the-conservatives-have-been-better-off-under-av/"&gt;better off under an alternative vote system&lt;/a&gt;, where UKIP voters would have ranked the Conservatives ahead of other major parties. The same is likely to be the case in 2024.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In 2011 it was the Liberal Democrats, and to a lesser extent Labour, who appeared to have the &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/10/alternative-vote-minimal-impact-general-election"&gt;most to gain&lt;/a&gt; from the alternative vote system. It is somewhat ironic that the voting system once opposed by the Conservative Party might have mitigated what is predicted to be a catastrophic election defeat in 2024.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233296/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Adam Webster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>The Conservatives campaigned against changing the voting system in 2011, but it could have saved them from a potential wipeout at this election.</summary> <author> <name>Adam Webster, Associate Professor in Law and Public Policy, University of Oxford</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/adam-webster-126008"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232787</id> <published>2024-06-26T16:21:56Z</published> <updated>2024-06-26T16:21:56Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/why-britains-politicians-are-obssessed-with-potholes-and-why-they-still-cant-seem-to-fix-them-232787"/> <title>Why Britain’s politicians are obssessed with potholes – and why they still can’t seem to fix them</title> <content type="html">&lt;figure&gt;&lt;img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/601555/original/file-20240618-19-9wdc6v.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;rect=25%2C69%2C5743%2C3416&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=496&amp;amp;fit=clip" /&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;&lt;span class="caption"&gt;Some potholes are deep and cause problems for cyclists.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/bicycle-rear-wheel-deep-pothole-filled-2430351839"&gt;yuriyt&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/figcaption&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Labour party has announced &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgg824v1r7o"&gt;a pledge to fix 1 million potholes&lt;/a&gt; across England in each year of the next parliament. Adding just £320 million to the £8.3 billion already promised by the Tories, Labour said when it made the pledge on June 12 that this “multi-year funding settlement” would end a “sticking-plaster approach” to the country’s broken infrastructure. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Election campaigns always seek to give the “feeling” of improved infrastructure, even when meaningful promises on major projects aren’t actually being made. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In 2019, Boris Johnson derived his “oven-ready” Brexit deal from the language of the construction industry (a “shovel-ready” project is one ready to be built) and &lt;a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_USYB3X0B4"&gt;drove a bulldozer through a polystyrene wall&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Liz Truss’s hyperbolic catchphrase, “we will deliver, we will deliver, we will deliver!”, &lt;a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/10/liz-truss-deliver-political-buzzword"&gt;aimed to compensate&lt;/a&gt; for the hard numbers missing from her plans. And during the 2021 by-election in Batley and Spen, George Galloway sought votes by promising to fix the constituency’s many potholes with his bare hands if he had to. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;These are extreme but not isolated examples. From David Cameron and George Osborne to Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, promoting images of politicians on building sites wearing hard hats and high vis jackets is a cross-party strategy during general election campaigns. As I describe in my recent book, &lt;a href="https://lwbooks.co.uk/product/the-broken-promise-of-infrastructure"&gt;The Broken Promise of Infrastructure&lt;/a&gt;, there are two main reasons for this ubiquity.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center "&gt; &lt;img alt="Boris Johnson standing with two construction workers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/602255/original/file-20240621-19-z9x2h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/602255/original/file-20240621-19-z9x2h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=400&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602255/original/file-20240621-19-z9x2h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=400&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602255/original/file-20240621-19-z9x2h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=400&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602255/original/file-20240621-19-z9x2h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=503&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602255/original/file-20240621-19-z9x2h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=503&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602255/original/file-20240621-19-z9x2h7.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=503&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson on a construction site.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wixams-bedfordshire-november-21-2019-british-1589808898"&gt;Eric Johnson Photography&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;First, infrastructure draws out &lt;a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315622880-12/surveying-future-perfect-anthropology-development-promise-infrastructure-kregg-hetherington"&gt;a future-oriented narrative&lt;/a&gt;. We relate to infrastructure through the future perfect tense of a promise that will eventually be kept: the train will have arrived, infrastructure will have been built – not here in the present, but looking backwards from some point in the future. By requiring voters to throw their minds forward in this way, images of infrastructure raise the hopes and expectations of the electorate. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Second, infrastructure is how most people encounter “the government” on a day-to-day basis. Whether it’s drinking the potable water that runs into our homes or driving along roads that have been smoothly tarmacked, infrastructure is how we experience and exercise our citizenship: it is the front wedge of our social contract. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the context of a general election campaign, when numbers are thrown around and there is uncertainty about the future, infrastructure offers a feeling of solidity that voters can begin to get on board with.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The problem is that raised expectations are also potential disappointments. It is now evident that &lt;a href="https://www.redpepper.org.uk/political-parties-and-ideologies/conservative-party/levelling-up-is-part-of-the-culture-war/"&gt;“levelling up” was a culture war strategy&lt;/a&gt; designed to cultivate feelings of action on infrastructure, while &lt;a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-923X.12834"&gt;deliberately avoiding the investment and wealth redistribution&lt;/a&gt; needed for meaningful change. &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67005544"&gt;As promises on major projects like the northern section of HS2 have been broken&lt;/a&gt;, so too has Britain’s democratic contract crumbled.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This has created the central paradox of the current election campaign: on the one hand, there is &lt;a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en/trust/britain-feels-broken"&gt;widespread consensus that Britain is “broken”&lt;/a&gt;; on the other, political parties are afraid to commit to the scale of action required to fix it. We see this most clearly in Starmer’s Labour party, which has promised “a decade of national renewal” while committing to fiscal rules that will make this practically impossible. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Pothole Politics&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;It is here that the promise to fix potholes across England becomes political strategy. Paid for by &lt;a href="https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2024/06/14/labour-to-mothball-320m-a27-job-to-fix-potholes/"&gt;deferring the A27 Arundel bypass in Sussex&lt;/a&gt;, it is fully costed and it speaks directly to the lived experience of many voters. It is not abstract but concrete, a tangible pledge that literally promises to fix the social contract of citizenship that has been in a state of erosion since at least 2010. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Yet the policy is also deeply ironic. One reason why there are so many potholes in England is because it only takes a few years for them to reopen when they’re fixed individually. A serious policy to prevent potholes requires a resurfacing of the whole road, a far more expensive but also long-term endeavour. The arbitrary commitment to mend 1 million potholes is therefore an example of the very “sticking plaster” politics that Labour claims differentiates it from the Tories.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;There are also deeper problems with the policy. To begin with, local government is responsible for most road surfaces – no one from national government would ever go anywhere near a pothole. The aim is to evoke feelings of immediacy and tangibility now, not to improve England’s road infrastructure in the future.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Moreover, after years of cuts and outsourcing, it is likely the job would be tendered by councils to a private construction company. This is not inherently a bad thing: if the business is local, it will be accountable to residents and the investment will stay in the community. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But more than a decade of cuts to council budgets has placed &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/29/how-a-decade-of-austerity-has-squeezed-council-budgets-in-england"&gt;huge financial pressures on local government&lt;/a&gt; to choose contracts on the basis of cost, not quality.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;More concerning still, the headline-grabbing pledge of one million potholes ignores local contexts where money could be more effectively spent on other forms of transport such as tram or rail, with the added benefits of reduced congestion and pollution. Demands to meet the arbitrary target will also add unnecessary pressure to councils that are cash-strapped, understaffed, and overworked. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Finally, the policy ignores holistic transport planning that would combat climate change by disincentivising car use in the long term. After &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66264317"&gt;Labour’s narrow loss at Uxbridge last summer&lt;/a&gt; was blamed on London’s ultra-low emissions zone (Ulez ), the party is shying away from green policies that have become embroiled in the culture wars. Rather than making and winning progressive arguments, Labour is studiously avoiding them. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;There are good pledges on infrastructure in &lt;a href="https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/labour-manifesto-2024-sign-up/?gad_source=1&amp;amp;gclid=CjwKCAjwydSzBhBOEiwAj0XN4JAqmh0K_fnsbcFXG4ozfA2hO1pFBaD_QXdwf8h8KhzIPvy9gZonpRoCKdsQAvD_BwE"&gt;Labour’s 2024 manifesto&lt;/a&gt;: expanding charging infrastructure for electric cars; lifting the ban on municipal ownership of bus services; devolving powers to regional mayors that allow them to integrate their transport systems; and bringing the railways into public ownership (albeit slowly over a number of years as contracts expire). Fixing England’s physical infrastructure will help to restore its broken democracy as well. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But there is also a danger of slipping into the same pothole politics that has cultivated the feelings of infrastructural improvement only to distract from the meaningful investment that England’s infrastructure so desperately needs. If growth is the aim, the country requires a green industrial revolution underpinned by a well-funded infrastructure programme that will necessitate meaningful wealth redistribution to regional economies. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This infrastructure programme might well include mending England’s many potholes, but rather than meeting arbitrary pledges, it would empower local authorities to make informed decisions that best serve their citizens and communities.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/232787/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Dominic Davies does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Will Labour’s pothole politics provide the meaningful infrastructure investment desperately needed in Britain?</summary> <author> <name>Dominic Davies, Senior Lecturer in English, City St George's, University of London</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dominic-davies-596128"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/233300</id> <published>2024-06-26T16:21:51Z</published> <updated>2024-06-26T16:21:51Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-nigel-farage-taking-on-the-daily-mail-233300"/> <title>Why is Nigel Farage taking on the Daily Mail?</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;While we might expect a Labour leader to feud with the rightwing Daily Mail during an election campaign, it is a somewhat surprising turn of events for Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage’s &lt;a href="https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/06/06/the-return-of-the-farage-ratchet"&gt;return to frontline politics&lt;/a&gt; has been far from quiet, reaching new decibels with his comments to the BBC suggesting that the west provoked Vladimir Putin’s &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cldd44zv3kpo"&gt;invasion of Ukraine&lt;/a&gt;. The comments themselves provoked rebuke from Keir Starmer, Rishi Sunak and a number of other top Conservatives, as well as former prime minister &lt;a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-accuses-nigel-farage-parroting-putin-lie-on-ukraine-uk/"&gt;Boris Johnson&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Now, Farage is embroiled in an &lt;a href="https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/daily-mail-nigel-farage-ukraine-zelenskyy/"&gt;unprecedented feud&lt;/a&gt; with the Daily Mail. The Mail on Sunday’s front page printed the headline: &lt;a href="https://x.com/ukpapers/status/1804762813409136743/photo/1"&gt;“Zelensky: Farage is infected with ‘virus of Putin’”&lt;/a&gt;. Farage has threatened legal action, accusing the Mail of “dishonesty” and a breach of the editors code because the quote did not specifically include Farage’s name, and did not come directly from Zelensky. The Mail’s reporting attributes the full quote – “The virus of Putinism, unfortunately, infects people” – to a source from Zelensky’s office.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In a &lt;a href="https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804948477471813804"&gt;five minute 28 second rebuttal video&lt;/a&gt;, Farage accused the Mail of colluding with the Kremlin to “protect the dying Conservative party”:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;[The Mail] are doing this to protect their friends, the dying Conservative party … somehow the owner of the Mail, Lord Rothermere, thinks that’s my fault. It’s not. They have destroyed themselves with five years of betrayal and broken promises.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;p&gt;He even likened his situation to a hugely controversial forged document published in the Daily Mail four days before the 1924 general election. The Zinoviev letter, now believed to have been fabricated by anti–Communist Russian activists, claimed that Labour‘s relationship with Russia would lead to a communist revolution in Britain. It was a significant part of the red scare and was used to discredit the first Labour government. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage said: “It is the most disgraceful and dishonest political and journalistic act of the entire 20th century, and now the Daily Mail 100 years on are trying to do the same again. They’re trying to stop Reform UK breaking through in big numbers into the British parliament.” &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;However, despite its polling gains, Reform has somewhat &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/has-reform-really-overtaken-the-tories-in-the-polls-and-does-that-mean-it-could-beat-them-on-july-4-232234"&gt;less of a chance&lt;/a&gt; of being the ruling party than Labour in 1924. It should also be noted that whether or not the Zelensky quote was misused or exaggerated, the broader assertion that Farage’s original comments buy into a well-established Kremlin line on the war in Ukraine is a lot harder to refute.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{&amp;quot;tweetId&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;1804948477471813804&amp;quot;}"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage and the Mail were previously &lt;a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1461670X.2015.1023571"&gt;close ideological bedfellows&lt;/a&gt; (a petition of 50,000 signatures once referred to former Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre as the &lt;a href="https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/brexit_daily_mail_loc/"&gt;“Nigel Farage of Newspapers”&lt;/a&gt;). But the two are now at loggerheads, sabres rattling. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Mail on Sunday ominously said in &lt;a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13558621/Farage-no-Trump-soft-spot-Putin-endears-no-one.html"&gt;an editorial&lt;/a&gt;: “A man who wants to be prime minister can no longer just say anything he feels like saying. From the moment he lets that ambition be known, he is judged by far more severe and intrusive standards than before.”&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Recent history shows that anyone with ambitions to be prime minister is certainly judged severely by the Mail group (unless they are a Conservative). In 2015, Ed Miliband, who was then Labour leader, was routinely referred to in its pages as “Red Ed”, son of the &lt;a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2435751/Red-Eds-pledge-bring-socialism-homage-Marxist-father-Ralph-Miliband-says-GEOFFREY-LEVY.html"&gt;“man who hated Britain”&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Miliband was pilloried relentlessly by the daily edition of the newspaper as being completely ineffectual and &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election"&gt;dangerous&lt;/a&gt;. Jeremy Corbyn, the scourge of the right, was &lt;a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/media-and-communications/research/research-projects/representations-of-jeremy-corbyn"&gt;also ridiculed and delegitimised&lt;/a&gt; by the Mail, including a remarkable June 2017 edition that dedicated 13 pages (including the front) to describing Corbyn and allies as &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jun/07/daily-mail-devotes-13-pages-to-attack-on-labour-apologists-for-terror"&gt;“apologists for terror”&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage is clearly showing he is unwilling to sit back and take the criticism. At a rally on June 24, he called former prime minister (and now Mail columnist) Boris Johnson, &lt;a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/nigel-farage-boris-johnson-ukraine-european-union-reform-uk-b2567685.html"&gt;“morally repugnant”&lt;/a&gt; and accused him of “pretending to be a Conservative”.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want more election coverage from The Conversation’s academic experts? Over the coming weeks, we’ll bring you informed analysis of developments in the campaign and we’ll fact check the claims being made.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sign up for our new, weekly &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/politics-weekly-170"&gt;election newsletter&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;, delivered every Friday throughout the campaign and beyond.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;h2&gt;All news is good news&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;This is a remarkable transformation in the relationship between Farage and the Mail newspapers. But it is part of the narrative of Farage’s parliamentary &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/04/farage-the-maverick-who-inflamed-uks-brexit-vote-is-back-to-haunt-rightwing-allies"&gt;campaign&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The whole furore is the latest version of Farage’s very Trump-like conflict with the establishment. Farage – himself a presenter on the “outsider” GB News channel – has shaped his political persona around being a beleaguered, ordinary citizen &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-politically-exposed-person-and-why-do-the-likes-of-jeremy-hunt-and-nigel-farage-claim-the-status-prevents-them-getting-bank-accounts-209658"&gt;victimised by banks&lt;/a&gt; and other privileged institutions. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Who better to represent the ignored, exploited masses? As a giant of the UK’s legacy, establishment media, the Mail is therefore the enemy of the people Farage purports to represent. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage may also be taking a gamble that the power of the press is waning in the digital age. It is certainly true, as has been widely written, that the influence of the right-wing press is not what it was in this &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/why-legacy-media-brands-still-matter-in-the-uks-social-media-election-231622"&gt;TikTok age&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Maybe it never was as powerful as the Sun liked to claim it was, as far back as the &lt;a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-sun-win-elections"&gt;election of 1992&lt;/a&gt;. But it is still the case that press sets &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/09/tory-press-know-influence-is-waning-but-tread-careful-line-before-election"&gt;the broadcasting news agenda&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It’s not that the media tells us what to think, it’s that it tells us what to think about. And for Farage, whose political career &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/another-election-another-round-of-nigel-farage-hype-with-no-lessons-learned-232559"&gt;thrives on attention&lt;/a&gt; (if not popularity), as long as we are thinking about him, he’s winning. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/why-legacy-media-brands-still-matter-in-the-uks-social-media-election-231622"&gt;Why legacy media brands still matter in the UK's 'social media election'&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233300/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;John Jewell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Farage and the Mail were previously close ideological bedfellows.</summary> <author> <name>John Jewell, Director of Undergraduate Studies, School of Journalism, Media and Cultural Studies, Cardiff University</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-jewell-100660"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232919</id> <published>2024-06-21T14:52:24Z</published> <updated>2024-06-21T14:52:24Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-a-reform-surge-do-to-labour-and-the-liberal-democrats-two-scenarios-mapped-232919"/> <title>What would a Reform surge do to Labour and the Liberal Democrats? Two scenarios mapped</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Labour leader Keir Starmer and Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey had what looked like a &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree%20/2023/may/14/labour-win-not-unfeasible-keir-starmer-backup-plan-lab-lib-coalition"&gt;political strategy meeting&lt;/a&gt; when they were sitting together in Westminster Abbey for the Coronation of King Charles. This produced what appears to be a tacit agreement between the two parties to campaign against the Conservatives but not against each other.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;A tacit agreement makes a great deal of sense in 2024. In the 2019 general election, the Liberal Democrats came second to the Conservatives in 80 seats and second to Labour in only nine seats. They weren’t much of a threat to Labour. If we look at the 11 seats won by the Liberal Democrats last time, the Conservatives were in second place in seven of them, with Labour second in none. Labour was not much of a threat to them either.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want more election coverage from The Conversation’s academic experts? Over the coming weeks, we’ll bring you informed analysis of developments in the campaign and we’ll fact check the claims being made.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sign up for our new, weekly &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/politics-weekly-170"&gt;election newsletter&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;, delivered every Friday throughout the campaign and beyond.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;But how is this arrangement affected by the surge in support for Reform? We can examine this by looking at the electoral battleground using two scenarios.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The first looks at a plausible swing to Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the absence of a Reform surge. The second looks at what might happen given that Nigel Farage’s party is now neck and neck with the Conservatives in voting intentions according to a &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/%20trackers/voting-intention"&gt;recent YouGov poll&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Scenario 1: Without a Reform surge&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Scenario one is a plausible sequence of events relating to Labour and Liberal Democrat seat gains across the regions of the country in the absence of a Reform surge. It lists the number of marginal seats in which Labour and the Liberal Democrats came second in 2019, and are therefore in the strongest position to defeat the Conservatives in 2024. In this scenario, a marginal seat is defined as the Conservative winner having a lead of 10% or less in the vote over their rivals.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In total, Labour was in second place in 56 of these marginal seat, and the Liberal Democrats in 15. When it comes to comparisons by regions, Labour dominated in the East Midlands, the north-east, the north-west, Scotland, Wales, the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside. An electoral pact in these regions would be of little use to either party. But there are prospects for a deal in the east of England, London, the south-east and the south-west. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2019 Conservative Seats with a 10% Lead over Labour/Lib Dems&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;If we look at the case of London in the chart, then given the increase in support for the two parties in the polls, they have a good chance of winning in all seven of the seats where they are in second place. To clarify, Labour came second in the marginal seats of Chingford and Wood Green, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, and in Kensington in the 2019 election. The Liberal Democrats came second in Carshalton and Wallington, the City of Westminster, and in Wimbledon. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;All seven seats are ripe to be taken by the two parties but the chances of this happening are increased by a tacit agreement in which Labour puts up a token candidate in the potential Liberal Democrat wins and the Liberal Democrats do the same in the potential Labour wins. This tacit agreement should be kept secret of course otherwise it would be weaponised by the Conservatives. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Scenario 2: The Reform insurgency&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The assumption that marginal seats are defined as Conservative seats with a lead of up to 10% ahead of Labour and the Liberal Democrats in 2019 has been overturned by the rise in support for the Reform party. Seats with what were once considered healthy majorities are at risk.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the last election, Nigel Farage withdrew Reform candidates (then standing under the banner of the Brexit Party) from Conservative seats with strong Brexit supporting MPs and fielded only &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/%20politics/2019/nov/11/brexit-party-will-not-contest-317-tory-seats-nigel-farage-says"&gt;275 candidates altogether&lt;/a&gt;. This means that the party was not a real threat to the Tories in 2019.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This year, however, Reform is standing candidates in the vast majority of constituencies, making the Tories much more vulnerable. The YouGov poll which put Reform in the lead shows that 32% of 2019 Conservative voters have now switched to Reform. Only 6% of Labour voters have switched to Reform and only 3% of Liberal Democrats – so the Reform surge has shifted the battleground significantly in favour of both parties.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the second scenario, we assume that Labour and the Liberal Democrats threaten the Tories in seats won by the party with up to a 20% lead over their rivals.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In seats falling into this category, Labour was in second place in 117 seats and the Liberal Democrats in 29. Labour was still dominant in the East Midlands, the north-west, Scotland, Wales, the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside. However, the Liberal Democrats could do much better in the east, London, the south-east and the south-west.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;If the two parties won all these seats, then Labour would have 321 seats and the Liberal Democrats 44 seats altogether as a result of adding them to the present total of their MPs in the Commons. That said, this figure ignores the effects of the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, both of which could contribute to Conservative losses. In practice, both Labour and the Liberal Democrats could do even better than this.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2019 Conservative Seats with a 20% Lead over over Labour/Lib Dems&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;These are just two scenarios, and so things could be different in reality. However, they highlight a unique feature of the current election. The centre-left has been divided since Labour replaced the Liberals as the main party of opposition in Britain after the first world war. This is the main reason why the Conservatives have been so successful in winning elections over the past century. The situation has now changed, with the centre-right divided. It is likely to have a devastating effect on the Conservatives on July 4.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/232919/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Britain’s centre left has been divided since the end of the first world war – now it is the centre right that has been split.</summary> <author> <name>Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/paul-whiteley-136273"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232848</id> <published>2024-06-20T17:07:54Z</published> <updated>2024-06-20T17:07:54Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/nigel-farages-reform-is-in-line-for-hundreds-of-thousands-in-public-funding-if-it-wins-seats-in-the-election-232848"/> <title>Nigel Farage’s Reform is in line for hundreds of thousands in public funding if it wins seats in the election</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Nigel Farage’s party, Reform UK, has a reputation for being chaotic and even unprofessional. But winning seats in the House of Commons would be a significant step on the road to becoming a political party akin to all the others. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Gaining even a small foothold in the House of Commons in the forthcoming election could give Reform the resources to transform into a serious contender – one able to mount an organised, professional campaign in 2029. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform has experienced an &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726"&gt;increase in support&lt;/a&gt; in the first weeks of the election campaign. A recent poll has shown that Reform could realistically win in &lt;a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/reform-farage-tice-survation-poll-election-lee-anderson/"&gt;seven constituencies&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;And its vote share is &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/has-reform-really-overtaken-the-tories-in-the-polls-and-does-that-mean-it-could-beat-them-on-july-4-232234"&gt;almost certain&lt;/a&gt; to be far higher than the number of seats it wins. Even if it doesn’t make it to seven MPs, any presence in the House of Commons would unlock a stream of public funding for Reform of hundreds of thousands of pounds. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-billed-as-a-change-election-but-britains-electoral-system-means-hardly-any-seats-are-true-multi-party-contests-232012"&gt;This is billed as a 'change' election – but Britain's electoral system means hardly any seats are true multi-party contests&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform is not the same slick machine as the more established parties competing in this election. It was still &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/24/reform-uk-forced-to-remove-more-than-100-general-election-candidates-in-2024"&gt;looking for candidates&lt;/a&gt; for many of the seats it wanted to contest when this election was called. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Many of those who did make the cut have turned out to be poor choices. One candidate had to stand down from the Reform ticket halfway through the election campaign after it emerged he had previously encouraged people to vote for the &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/16/reform-uk-candidate-resigns-over-previous-comments-backing-bnp"&gt;extreme-right British National Party&lt;/a&gt;. Another remains in the race despite calling Hitler &lt;a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-hitler-jack-aaron-welwyn-b2564215.html"&gt;“brilliant”&lt;/a&gt;. These are just two of the many people standing for Reform who are &lt;a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13534275/Reform-candidates-general-election-animal-abuser-OnlyFans.html"&gt;involved in one controversy or another&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage outsourced candidate vetting and is now seeking to blame the company in charge of the process for the state of his lineup. He is even &lt;a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-richard-tice-reform-uk-mps-rishi-sunak-b1165129.html"&gt;threatening to sue&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want more election coverage from The Conversation’s academic experts? Over the coming weeks, we’ll bring you informed analysis of developments in the campaign and we’ll fact check the claims being made. &lt;strong&gt;Sign up for our new, weekly &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/politics-weekly-170"&gt;election newsletter&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;, delivered every Friday throughout the campaign and beyond.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;A lack of professionalism is also demonstrated through some of the wild claims made in the party’s election manifesto, with economists &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/17/farage-unveils-reform-uks-140bn-pledges-that-economists-say-do-not-add-up"&gt;questioning the maths&lt;/a&gt; on their £140 billion of election pledges. Farage’s &lt;a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/nigel-farage-susanna-reid-good-morning-britain-b2564585.html"&gt;disastrous interview on Good Morning Britain&lt;/a&gt; on June 18 showed that he perhaps does not have the staff needed to help him prepare for media appearances where he will be expected to defend his policy proposals. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Short money and the long road to viability&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;It’s no surprise that Reform UK is lacking in a professional staff support structure to underpin its election campaign. After all, as a relatively new party with only one MP (who defected from the Tories rather than being elected on a Reform ticket), it is dwarfed financially by the larger parties. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Donations registered with the Electoral Commission show that Reform has &lt;a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/political-registration-and-regulation/financial-reporting/donations-and-loans/view-donations-and-loans/donations-accepted#donations-quarter"&gt;received only seven donations&lt;/a&gt; of more than £500 since the start of 2023. This compares with over 1,400 such donations made to the Conservative party and 854 to Labour. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform is in many ways more of a &lt;a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-uk-nigel-farage-election-b2556355.html"&gt;limited company&lt;/a&gt; than a party. Its most recent &lt;a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media-centre/uk-political-parties-accounts-published-1"&gt;annual accounts&lt;/a&gt; show an income of £692,000 – a figure that pales in comparison to the £30 million brought in by the Conservative party and the £47 million by Labour. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform has had to &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/13/reform-uk-richard-tice-loans-party-funding"&gt;rely on donations&lt;/a&gt; from former leader Richard Tice in order to make ends meet over the past few years. It is, in many ways, an amateur operation, regardless of Farage’s experience in forming and leading parties. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;One of the most important ways small parties such as Reform UK can professionalise is to gain a foothold in the House of Commons. Once a party crosses this electoral threshold it is forced to think about how to put itself forward as an opposition party.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Crucially, Reform UK has not had access to any public funding to support its role as an opposition party. Assuming that it does return at least one MP at this election, however, it will become eligible for &lt;a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01663/"&gt;public funding&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;If Reform returns between one and five MPs the overall payment of this funding (known as &lt;a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01663/"&gt;short money&lt;/a&gt;) ranges between £118,000 and £354,000. However, if a party returns six or more MPs this potential maximum disappears and parties receive just over £21,000 for each seat they won, plus another £42 for every 200 votes gained. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It is this latter calculation that could lead to Reform UK suddenly having the funds to professionalise itself quite rapidly. The Green party, with just one MP, has used its short money to contribute to the &lt;a href="https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-finance-office/short-representative-money/short-money-representative-money-2022-23-breakdown.pdf"&gt;salaries of six staff&lt;/a&gt; while the SNP has employed 18. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;These are the staff who will work hard to prepare the party’s MPs for big events in the House of Commons such as prime minister’s questions and responses to statements such as the budget, and ensure that they are well equipped to hold the new government to account. It’s this sort of activity that helps voters see small parties as ones which have the potential to govern.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This is why Farage will be looking at the 2029 election to make a bigger impact. His claim that he will be the real &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/reform-leader-nigel-farage-says-he-is-now-leader-of-the-opposition"&gt;“leader of the opposition”&lt;/a&gt; next month suggests Reform UK will be pushing for greater recognition in light of its expected electoral performance, even if it does return only a handful of MPs. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Should the party gain more votes than the Conservatives, who are expected to go into the role of &lt;a href="https://members.parliament.uk/Opposition/Cabinet"&gt;official opposition&lt;/a&gt;, there will certainly be pressure on the House of Commons Speaker – and others – to accede to Reform’s demands for time to speak and ask questions on the floor of the House. This, too, will help to give the impression that it is a potential party of government, rather than a minor party on the fringes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/232848/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Louise Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Winning just a few seats would mean Reform would qualify for ‘short money’ – public funding for its operations – and would no longer have to rely on its own small donations pool.</summary> <author> <name>Louise Thompson, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Manchester</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/louise-thompson-111729"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232563</id> <published>2024-06-20T14:47:11Z</published> <updated>2024-06-20T14:47:11Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/ten-seats-where-reform-poses-a-threat-to-the-tories-232563"/> <title>Ten seats where Reform poses a threat to the Tories</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;With Nigel Farage’s surprise return to frontline politics and Reform &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/could-labours-massive-poll-lead-affect-as-well-as-reflect-how-it-performs-at-the-election-three-things-the-evidence-tells-us-232014"&gt;surging in the polls&lt;/a&gt;, there is increasingly fevered speculation as to how much damage Reform will do to the Conservatives in the election, and whether they will even overtake the Tories in terms of vote share.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The polls don’t look reassuring for Rishi Sunak, with some suggesting that as many as &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/reform-split-right-leaning-vote-tories-uk-election"&gt;one in three voters&lt;/a&gt; who backed the Conservatives in 2019 now back Reform. But at the same time there is still a lot of uncertainty, and any predictions come with health warnings.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We’ve looked at what would happen to the Conservatives if Reform replicates the performance of Ukip from 2015, when the party secured nearly 4 million votes – 12.6% of the national total.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The 2015 election is significant because it marked the start of a journey that shaped both Ukip (and its successor parties) and the Conservatives.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the aftermath of Brexit, the Conservatives targeted former Ukip voters, first under &lt;a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-923X.12405"&gt;Theresa May&lt;/a&gt; and then &lt;a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-923X.12815"&gt;Boris Johnson&lt;/a&gt;. This strategy worked in terms of cannibalising Ukip support but came at a cost. More liberal, pro-European Conservative supporters started to move away from the party.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But the Conservatives’ Brexit coalition is now crumbling and voters on the right of the party’s support base are also now a flight risk. The question is how many voters who switched from the Conservatives to Ukip in the past will once again return to Farage in 2024. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform is currently hovering at about 16% in the &lt;a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/"&gt;poll of polls&lt;/a&gt;, which more than what Ukip was on in the run up to the 2015 general election. That year therefore represents an instructive point of reference to benchmark the potential impact of Reform’s surge in the polls on Conservative held seats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;However, it is not straightforward to simply map Ukip’s past electoral performance on to current electoral boundaries. Part of the problem is that new &lt;a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/boundary-review-2023-which-seats-will-change/"&gt;constituency boundaries&lt;/a&gt; come into force this election, making it difficult to use past results to make future projections. Our approach has been to draw on a major new data collection exercise that we have undertaken. This redistricts past election results since 1997 onto the new constituency boundaries, using population counts for 189,000 &lt;a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/geography/ukgeographies/censusgeographies/census2021geographies"&gt;census output areas&lt;/a&gt;. This data provides an insight into how residents in the current constituencies have voted over time, and crucially how they voted in the 2015 election.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We’ve identified ten seats, all of which are in England, where Reform could inflict the most damage on the Conservatives if they replicate Ukip’s 2015 showing.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;They include Clacton, where Nigel Farage will be hoping to emulate Douglas Carswell’s showing for Ukip in 2015. Despite a whopping Conservative majority last time out, a repeat performance at the Conservatives expense would put Farage and Reform in first place. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Another to watch is Thurrock in Essex, where the Conservatives won by a majority of 11,482 over Labour in 2019. Now, the margin of their victory would be overturned if Reform did as well as Ukip did in 2015 at the Conservatives’ expense.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Other areas of interest include two Stoke-on-Trent constituencies and Northampton North.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;All would see sizeable Conservative majorities overturned. And, in the case of Clacton and Rochester and Strood, would see Reform victories. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center zoomable"&gt; &lt;a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/602045/original/file-20240620-17-hvu9hi.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=1000&amp;amp;fit=clip"&gt;&lt;img alt="A table showing the constituencies where Reform is expected to do well against the Conservatives." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/602045/original/file-20240620-17-hvu9hi.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/602045/original/file-20240620-17-hvu9hi.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=297&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602045/original/file-20240620-17-hvu9hi.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=297&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602045/original/file-20240620-17-hvu9hi.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=297&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602045/original/file-20240620-17-hvu9hi.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=374&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602045/original/file-20240620-17-hvu9hi.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=374&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/602045/original/file-20240620-17-hvu9hi.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=374&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt;&lt;/a&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;Seats to watch.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;O Heath, H Southall.&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/"&gt;CC BY-ND&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;h2&gt;A threat in 68 constituencies&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;In the 2019 election, the Brexit party fielded just 277 candidates and did not contest in seats where there was an incumbent Conservative MP. In contrast, for this election, Reform is fielding 609 candidates. And so, if Reform is to match UKIP’s 2015 vote share; the swing will be even greater in Conservative-held seats than in ones held by Labour.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center "&gt; &lt;img alt="A beach front in an English seaside town." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/601773/original/file-20240619-17-wmec0.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/601773/original/file-20240619-17-wmec0.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=400&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601773/original/file-20240619-17-wmec0.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=400&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601773/original/file-20240619-17-wmec0.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=400&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601773/original/file-20240619-17-wmec0.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=503&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601773/original/file-20240619-17-wmec0.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=503&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601773/original/file-20240619-17-wmec0.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=503&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;Broadstairs is now part of East Thanet, a new constituency that is among Reform’s top targets.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/kent-england-14-june-2022-beach-2172321567"&gt;Shutterstock/I Wei Huang&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;Our results indicate that in 68 constituencies, the Conservative majority would be overturned if Reform matches Ukip’s share of the vote in 2015.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This means, that all else being equal, if Nigel Farage is able to galvanise former Ukip voters away from the Tories, then the prospect of a bad election for Rishi Sunak could get even worse. Of course, not all else is equal – and with Labour far ahead in the polls there may be numerous other seats where Reform could act as a spoiler by denying the Tories a victory. Or, indeed, Labour may be so far ahead in some places that Reform’s vote will not affect the outcome. But neither scenario is likely to provide the Conservatives with much comfort.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/232563/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;This article is based on research carried out with Paula Aucott and Chris Prosser.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Humphrey Southall is a member of the Labour Party.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Boundary changes are making this election difficult to map, so we turned to the census.</summary> <author> <name>Oliver Heath, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway University of London</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/oliver-heath-306329"/> </author> <author> <name>Humphrey Southall, Professor of Historical Geography, University of Portsmouth</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/humphrey-southall-1197448"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232559</id> <published>2024-06-17T17:04:53Z</published> <updated>2024-06-17T17:04:53Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/another-election-another-round-of-nigel-farage-hype-with-no-lessons-learned-232559"/> <title>Another election, another round of Nigel Farage hype, with no lessons learned</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Nigel Farage, a man who has never been elected to the House of Commons despite years of trying, has again been allowed to set the agenda in the UK.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Ten years after Ukip won the European parliament elections, throwing the Conservative party into turmoil and leading David Cameron to promise a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, Farage is at it again. Or more precisely, he is being allowed to go at it again. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/bbc-question-time-analysis-of-guests-over-nine-years-suggests-an-overuse-of-rightwing-voices-232315"&gt;BBC Question Time: analysis of guests over nine years suggests an overuse of rightwing voices&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;The mainstream elite in the media and in politics who claim to oppose Farage, and who pretend to stand as a bulwark against far-right politics, are again duly buying into the hype he has created for himself.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We could already feel that hype bubbling as Farage took over as leader of Reform. He’d seen the party’s fortunes rising and started to think there could be something in it for him to step into the campaign.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We could see it in the coverage of every move he made thereafter – every &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw0097xlqxvo"&gt;milkshake&lt;/a&gt; thrown, every inflammatory &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx005vdgg5yo"&gt;quip&lt;/a&gt; quoted and &lt;a href="https://www.gettyimages.com.au/photos/nigel-farage-beer"&gt;beer&lt;/a&gt; drunk, snapped and plastered all over the news as some kind of morbid &lt;a href="https://x.com/Peston/status/1801914240791380199?t=eG87hDY2TvzCOiHrOef_NQ&amp;amp;s=19"&gt;excitement&lt;/a&gt; set in among the media. Finally, something exciting is happening in this otherwise rather dull campaign, where offers of “change” and pledges to be “bold” are hollow slogans for the sides of &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/02/labour-conservative-battle-buses-sunak-starmer"&gt;battle buses&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;To understand how a party which only received 2% of the registered votes in the 2019 general election, failing to get even one MP elected, can get such attention, we must travel back in time.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Ukip was a party created by &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-founder-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster"&gt;a eurosceptic elite, for a eurosceptic elite&lt;/a&gt;, to put pressure on the Conservatives via the EU elections. It all seemed a rather desperate move at the time, as the issue was marginal at best.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The party received 15.6% of the vote in the 2004 European elections and 16% in 2009. But these are second order elections, prone to low turnout and high protest vote. In these settings, Ukip really only received a mere 6% and 5.6% of the registered vote, once turnout was taken into account. Hardly the voice of the “silent majority”.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The 2005 and 2010 general elections clearly showed the limits of Ukip’s appeal. In 2005, the party received 1.4% of the vote and in 2010, it took 2%.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ukip’s election vote share&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center zoomable"&gt; &lt;a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/601167/original/file-20240617-17-ba9q6p.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=1000&amp;amp;fit=clip"&gt;&lt;img alt="A chart showing the performance of Ukip across general and European elections and what proportion that represented of the overall registered vote." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/601167/original/file-20240617-17-ba9q6p.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/601167/original/file-20240617-17-ba9q6p.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=378&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601167/original/file-20240617-17-ba9q6p.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=378&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601167/original/file-20240617-17-ba9q6p.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=378&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601167/original/file-20240617-17-ba9q6p.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=475&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601167/original/file-20240617-17-ba9q6p.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=475&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/601167/original/file-20240617-17-ba9q6p.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=475&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt;&lt;/a&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;Ukip results in general elections (GE) and European elections (EU).&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;A Mondon.&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/"&gt;CC BY-ND&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;Still, the first “breakthrough” was in 2014 when Ukip won the EU elections with 26.6%. An “&lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-european-elections-political-earthquake"&gt;earthquake&lt;/a&gt;”, we were told. This was the start of the “&lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/05/left-behind-voters-only-ukip-understands"&gt;left behind&lt;/a&gt;” myth which served Farage well as it diverted attention away from his elitist stance. &lt;a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1070289X.2018.1552440"&gt;The fantasised “white working class”&lt;/a&gt; would come to play a key role in shaping the narrative after the victories of both Donald Trump in the US and Brexit. Proper scrutiny of Ukip’s (and Reform’s) programmes (or Trump’s for that matter) would have also shown that beyond typical far-right measures and other gimmicks, their project was always deeply skewed in favour of the wealthy.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Yet even though Ukip really only received the support of one out of ten registered voters (9.5%) in 2014, in particularly favourable circumstances, the mainstream elite could not get enough of Farage. Finally, the UK had a “&lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/21/nigel-farage-ukip-bigoted-populism"&gt;populist&lt;/a&gt;” contender worthy of the name. They too could feel the same voyeuristic thrills as their European counterparts, watching the “irresistible” rise of the far right (or “populism” to be politically correct, as we would not want to offend the far right, no matter how &lt;a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-resigns-ukip-leader-brexit-leave-most-controversial-moments-racism-sexism-immigration-a7118801.html"&gt;clear&lt;/a&gt; Farage has made &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/14/he-was-a-deeply-unembarrassed-racist-nigel-farage-by-those-who-have-known-him"&gt;his views&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/the-word-populism-is-a-gift-to-the-far-right-four-reasons-why-we-should-stop-using-it-224488"&gt;The word 'populism' is a gift to the far right – four reasons why we should stop using it&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;What is striking is that it is this election which set in motion the 2016 referendum, even though Ukip was the only party running on a platform demanding that the UK leave the EU. For all the talk of “taking back control” and “sovereignty”, this reactionary experiment was decided based on the support of less than 10% of voters. Even in terms of votes cast, the referendum was forced onto almost three out of four voters who had decided to vote for parties who were not formally demanding the country leave the EU.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;All this is to say, Farage has simply never been that popular. This is despite him campaigning in incredibly fertile environments in which &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/apr/24/gb-news-can-still-use-politicians-as-presenters-ofcom"&gt;parts of the media are dedicated to propping him up&lt;/a&gt;, and where even those who seemingly oppose his politics cannot get enough of him – as demonstrated by his record number of appearances on the &lt;a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/17631396.bbc-explaining-record-farage-question-time-appearance/"&gt;BBC&lt;/a&gt; or the countless articles on “populism” in the &lt;a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0263395720955036"&gt;Guardian&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Just look at how much coverage a press conference given after one single poll has received, when other parties fail to get issues such as climate change, poverty or social care on the agenda.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/bbc-question-time-analysis-of-guests-over-nine-years-suggests-an-overuse-of-rightwing-voices-232315"&gt;BBC Question Time: analysis of guests over nine years suggests an overuse of rightwing voices&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;And if you think this is because immigration is people’s key concern, think again. Indeed, &lt;a href="https://www.runnymedetrust.org/publications/creating-a-crisis-immigration-racism-and-the-2024-general-election"&gt;as I explored with Lancaster university’s Aaron Winter in a report for the Runnymede Trust&lt;/a&gt;, the “immigration issue” is one that is clearly constructed in a top-down manner. Unsurprisingly, when people are asked about the key concerns in their personal lives, immigration doesn’t rate. Ironically, the exaggerated focus on immigration could be argued to be elite manipulation rather than the other way around.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;So, what’s behind the rise of Farage? Well, the same processes which have been at play across much of Europe: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/look-to-the-mainstream-to-explain-the-rise-of-the-far-right-218536"&gt;the hyping of far-right politics as a diversion&lt;/a&gt;. As has become abundantly clear, there is no mainstreaming or rise of far-right politics without the active involvement of mainstream forces who normalise and platform them.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want more election coverage from The Conversation’s academic experts? Over the coming weeks, we’ll bring you informed analysis of developments in the campaign and we’ll fact check the claims being made.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sign up for our new, weekly &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/politics-weekly-170"&gt;election newsletter&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;, delivered every Friday throughout the campaign and beyond.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;The far right then plays a convenient role, serving to scare the electorate at a time when distrust in governing parties is sky high. The message is: “we are bad but they are worse”.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/trust-hits-new-low-45-of-people-think-politicians-put-party-before-country-232187"&gt;Trust hits new low: 45% of people think politicians put party before country&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;Yet this strategy is exhausted. Patience has run out and the far right is no longer as repulsive as it once was, now that most mainstream parties mimic its discourse.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The solution is simple. Stop fighting it on its turf. Instead, turn to issues which are not only core to people’s concerns, but &lt;a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/02633957221104726"&gt;far less amenable to far right hijacking&lt;/a&gt;. This takes bold actions and real change though – both being in short supply in our mainstream parties.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/232559/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Aurelien Mondon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Making a ‘boring’ campaign more exciting, or just distracting from the issues that matter most?</summary> <author> <name>Aurelien Mondon, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Bath</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/aurelien-mondon-3467"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232234</id> <published>2024-06-14T13:33:55Z</published> <updated>2024-06-14T13:33:55Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/has-reform-really-overtaken-the-tories-in-the-polls-and-does-that-mean-it-could-beat-them-on-july-4-232234"/> <title>Has Reform really overtaken the Tories in the polls? And does that mean it could beat them on July 4?</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;A &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention"&gt;YouGov poll&lt;/a&gt; has put Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives for the first time. After a terrible few weeks of election campaigning, the Tories are on 18% while Reform has edged ahead to 19%. The same poll gave Labour 37% and the Liberal Democrats 14%. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This news makes a great headline, but it actually means the Conservatives and Reform are essentially neck-and-neck in the polls. This is because all surveys are subject to errors, which are commonly &lt;a href="https://www.qualtrics.com/uk/experience-management/research/survey-errors/"&gt;plus or minus 3% in a typical poll&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This happens because even a well-conducted, probability-based survey can produce results which differ from a census of all voters. If Reform hits 21% in voting intentions and the Tories remain on 18%, statistical theory shows there is a 95% chance that Nigel Farage’s party would actually be ahead in the country.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Nevertheless, it is clear that Farage’s surprise takeover as the new Reform leader, and his decision to stand as a candidate in Clacton, has boosted support for the party. Farage was helped by Rishi Sunak’s decision to leave the D-Day celebrations early, which gave him the opportunity to attack the prime minister for a &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/clww9y91yxjo"&gt;lack of patriotism&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The fact that Reform has now overtaken the Conservatives in at least one poll raises the question of whether the party can beat them in the forthcoming general election. It is very unlikely to do that in terms of seats in the House of Commons – but it might be possible when it comes to vote shares.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;An important thing to remember is that Reform, in its previous incarnation as the Brexit party, has already beaten the Tories in a national election in Britain. This was in the May 2019 European Parliamentary elections which are now largely forgotten. They actually temporarily destroyed the British party system. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Brexit party came first with 29 seats in the European parliament, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 16. Labour won 10 and the Conservatives four. Such was the collapse in Conservative support that the Greens won &lt;a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7529"&gt;three more seats than the Tories&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This was at the height of the turmoil over Brexit and Theresa May’s failure to get the House of Commons to agree a deal with Brussels. When my colleagues and I analysed that election in our book &lt;a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/brexit-britain/E109559E4EA08FA44274DBEB3A2CD06A"&gt;Brexit Britain&lt;/a&gt;, we concluded that: “The public mood was very sour and many voters – leavers and remainers alike – were inclined to give the major parties a ‘good kicking’.”&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;There are, of course, significant differences between the European elections and general elections. Turnout was always lower in the former, and the 2019 European elections were heavily focused on Brexit – in contrast, polls reveal it is now the most important issue for only &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country"&gt;13% of the population&lt;/a&gt;. Brexit has faded considerably as an issue.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;However, we can all recognise that the public mood is again very sour, and that the inclination to “give the major parties a good kicking” hangs heavy in the air.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want more election coverage from The Conversation’s academic experts? Over the coming weeks, we’ll bring you informed analysis of developments in the campaign and we’ll fact check the claims being made.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sign up for our new, weekly &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/politics-weekly-170"&gt;election newsletter&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;, delivered every Friday throughout the campaign and beyond.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;The survey analysis we conducted during the European elections showed the Brexit party did well among older voters, the relatively uneducated, those on low incomes, men and working-class voters. They were strongly in favour of leaving the EU; they liked Farage and disliked Jeremy Corbyn and May. Many of them identified with the Brexit party, even though it was a very new political brand (having only been founded in 2018). &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Brexit supporters were also rather anti-establishment, opposing excessive inequality in Britain and disliking large corporations.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The YouGov poll on 2024 vote intentions shows that Reform voters have very similar characteristics to Brexit party voters in 2019. There was no support for Reform among 18- to 24-year-olds in the survey, for example – only older voters. And support for Reform is significantly higher among working-class people than middle-class people.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The most important point about support for Reform in the 2024 election is what it will do to the Conservative vote. Unfortunately, data from the 2019 election is no use to us here, because Farage stood down Reform candidates in Conservative constituencies to give the &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/11/brexit-party-will-not-contest-317-tory-seats-nigel-farage-says"&gt;incumbent MPs who supported Brexit&lt;/a&gt; a clear run. Reform ended up fielding only 275 candidates across the country, so we aren’t able to use the 2019 results as a model for what might happen this year.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2024-how-many-seats-every-party-in-westminster-is-defending-and-what-they-are-aiming-for-on-july-4-111777"&gt;Election 2024: how many seats every party in Westminster is defending – and what they are aiming for on July 4&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;We can, however, look at Ukip’s performance in the 2017 general election. Ukip still exists as a party but its leadership, candidates and voters overwhelmingly moved to the Brexit party when it was founded in 2018, and subsequently to Reform. This happened in such large numbers that Ukip can effectively be considered an earlier iteration of Reform.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In 2017, Ukip fielded 378 candidates – close to 60% of Westminster parliamentary seats. The chart shows the relationship between the Conservative and Ukip vote shares in those seats. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Conservative and Ukip vote shares, 2017 UK election:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center zoomable"&gt; &lt;a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/599964/original/file-20240611-19-sfjwqx.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=1000&amp;amp;fit=clip"&gt;&lt;img alt="chart showing relationship between Conservative and Ukip vote shares in every parliamentary seat both parties contested at the 2017 UK election" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/599964/original/file-20240611-19-sfjwqx.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/599964/original/file-20240611-19-sfjwqx.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=435&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/599964/original/file-20240611-19-sfjwqx.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=435&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/599964/original/file-20240611-19-sfjwqx.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=435&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/599964/original/file-20240611-19-sfjwqx.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=547&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/599964/original/file-20240611-19-sfjwqx.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=547&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/599964/original/file-20240611-19-sfjwqx.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=547&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt;&lt;/a&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;P Whiteley&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"&gt;CC BY&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;Each dot in the chart is a constituency and the summary line measures the relationship between the vote shares of the two parties in similar constituencies. This is not the same as fitting a summary line to all constituencies, but instead captures how the relationship changed as Ukip won more support across the country.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This reveals something very interesting – namely, that the Conservative and Ukip vote shares rose together when Ukip support remained under about 4%. In effect, the Conservatives and Ukip were allies in these constituencies, with both gaining votes from the other parties.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But the picture changed rather dramatically when Ukip began to win above that 4% threshold. Then, the parties became rivals, with Ukip making gains at the expense of the Conservatives.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The explanation for this relates to support for leave voting in the 2016 EU referendum. Leave voting was only modestly correlated with Conservative voting in 2017 (0.30), whereas it was very strongly correlated with Ukip voting (0.69). This means that many voters in the constituencies strongly favouring leave were more likely to put their trust in Ukip and Farage than the Conservatives and May to get the job done.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;If Reform voters in the current election behave like Ukip voters in 2017, then the surge in support for the party will make it a strong rival to the Conservatives in practically every constituency it fights. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It is true that Brexit is no longer the salient issue it was back then, and that there is a lot of “Bregret” among voters at the present time. But a YouGov survey conducted last year showed around a third of the electorate &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45910-britons-would-vote-rejoin-eu"&gt;continues to support Brexit&lt;/a&gt;. Coupled with the dive in support for the government, it is easy to see how disgruntled Conservative leave supporters might easily change their vote to Reform. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Ironically, this will help to deliver victories for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats in many of the seats being contested.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/232234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Data from Ukip’s performance in 2017 shows that once a certain tipping point is passed, Reform is indeed a significant threat to the Tories.</summary> <author> <name>Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/paul-whiteley-136273"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231949</id> <published>2024-06-07T12:21:00Z</published> <updated>2024-06-07T12:21:00Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/how-rishi-sunak-tried-to-weaponise-information-only-to-shoot-himself-in-the-foot-231949"/> <title>How Rishi Sunak tried to weaponise information only to shoot himself in the foot</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Could it be that British politics is slipping into some post-satire phase of confusion and condemnation? &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The second full week of the 2024 election campaign was definitely beyond satire – and will probably be remembered for three things. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;First and foremost, this was the week Rishi Sunak went populist. His claim that Labour’s tax plans would cost households £2,000 in tax was a form of fake news. There was never any intention to be truthful about this figure, it was merely a device for forging a simple mental association between the words “tax” and “Labour”. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It was intended to mislead, while at the same time making it possible for Sunak to deflect any blame onto anonymous Treasury officials, whom he claimed had come up with the figures. He perhaps did not bank on them &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11m307jjvo"&gt;calling him out&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/rishi-sunak-and-keir-starmers-election-debate-an-audience-asking-for-a-way-out-of-hopelessness-and-getting-nothing-in-response-231707"&gt;Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer's election debate: an audience asking for a way out of hopelessness and getting nothing in response&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;When information is &lt;a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3309699?casa_token=lh9-HNBkqX4AAAAA:SzjG2Qo-Kwm8VdrAmfwDQY7aTTiFLmFMo9AheS_nRbTTLPI-HHdAr8esP67fQwUPV6YWUB0GgX8"&gt;weaponised&lt;/a&gt; in this way, it is the repetition of the argument, rather than the credibility of the case, that matters. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This was targeted manipulation of public concerns on specific topics. “Labour is lying. Labour will cost you.”&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;And this is the key issue. Sunak &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49618-general-election-2024-itv-debate-snap-poll"&gt;“won” the debate&lt;/a&gt; only in the sense that he created a furore that revolved around “Labour+tax”. The aim was never to tell the truth: it was an attempt to tap into longstanding cultural concerns about &lt;a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1369148120951026"&gt;Labour’s fiscal credibility&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Post-event analyses, truth-checkers, counter claims, sleaze busters, bean counters and even &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggr85dremo"&gt;accusations of lying&lt;/a&gt; risked only falling into the trap that the prime minister had sought to lay by perpetuating a debate over Labour’s tax policies.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003256601-24/really-joke-humor-excuse-challenge-political-satire-contemporary-america-mj-robinson"&gt;Boris Johnson used humour&lt;/a&gt; to play with the truth but this was the week that Sunak adopted a low-blow strategy.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Misfiring in every direction&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;This was the week that will also undoubtedly be remembered for the re-entry of the most &lt;a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1369148116632182"&gt;populist celebrity politician&lt;/a&gt; the United Kingdom has ever known – Nigel Farage. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Sunak’s shift in style is no doubt related to this development. The &lt;a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-97-1355-4_10"&gt;“Farage effect”&lt;/a&gt; for the prime minister appears to have been to convince him that, with the opinion polls stubbornly sticking to a large Labour lead, a large dose of populist politics was the only thing that might save the day.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It didn’t. In weaponising information, Sunak seems to have achieved the political equivalent of a self-inflicted injury. His reputation as a prime minister appears diminished rather than bolstered. Farage’s Reform party, meanwhile, is &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726"&gt;apparently increasing in popularity&lt;/a&gt; to the extent that some commentators have even identified July 4 as an &lt;a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/uk-election-reforms-nigel-farage-could-mean-tory-extinction.html"&gt;“extinction event”&lt;/a&gt; for the Conservatives.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2024-how-many-seats-every-party-in-westminster-is-defending-and-what-they-are-aiming-for-on-july-4-111777"&gt;Election 2024: how many seats every party in Westminster is defending – and what they are aiming for on July 4&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;The truth of the matter, however, is that no one “won” the television debate. British democracy &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/rishi-sunak-and-keir-starmers-election-debate-an-audience-asking-for-a-way-out-of-hopelessness-and-getting-nothing-in-response-231707"&gt;lost&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Which brings us to the third defining moment of the week and the point at which Sunak really did pay the price for playing fast and lose with the truth – having to leave the &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69098963"&gt;D-day commemoration events early&lt;/a&gt; to conduct a TV interview about his election debate behaviour.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Never has a self-inflicted political injury looked quite so bad. Could the leader of the Conservative party have played into Nigel Farage’s hands any better if they’d tried? Given that Farage spent much of his “emergency” announcement speech two days previously ruing &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/why-nigel-farage-spent-his-first-campaign-speech-complaining-that-young-people-dont-know-about-d-day-231581"&gt;lost respect for D-day&lt;/a&gt;, the answer is “probably not”. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want more election coverage from The Conversation’s academic experts? Over the coming weeks, we’ll bring you informed analysis of developments in the campaign and we’ll fact check the claims being made.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sign up for our new, weekly &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/politics-weekly-170"&gt;election newsletter&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;, delivered every Friday throughout the campaign and beyond.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;So far, this election campaign has done nothing to shift the popular view of politics. Sunak’s screeching and shouting in the debate, plus Starmer’s refusal to provide any short, sharp, simple answers to question of policy probably served to simply confirm the public’s increasingly embedded belief that politicians are simply not to be trusted.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The problem for British politics is that it is exactly this anti-political sentiment that persuasive populist politicians are &lt;a href="https://academic.oup.com/pa/article/73/Supplement_1/225/5910271"&gt;so good at inflaming and funnelling&lt;/a&gt; for their own advantage.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The 2024 general election campaign was looking decidedly dull and lifeless until Farage entered the race. He clearly recognised the advantage of highlighting this state of affairs, claiming on his first day of campaigning that he would be “gingering things up”. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;While a touch of colour might make things interesting for British politics, let’s hope it doesn’t come at the cost of what’s good for the health of British democracy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/231949/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Matthew Flinders does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>The prime minister attempted to play the populist and ended up playing into the hands of Nigel Farage.</summary> <author> <name>Matthew Flinders, Founding Director of the Sir Bernard Crick Centre for the Public Understanding of Politics, University of Sheffield</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-flinders-95763"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/231581</id> <published>2024-06-04T16:17:00Z</published> <updated>2024-06-04T16:17:00Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/why-nigel-farage-spent-his-first-campaign-speech-complaining-that-young-people-dont-know-about-d-day-231581"/> <title>Why Nigel Farage spent his first campaign speech complaining that young people don’t know about D-day</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Nigel Farage is back. The newly appointed leader of the Reform UK party has just announced his intention to run to be the MP for the Essex seaside town of Clacton – the &lt;a href="https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3418/election-history"&gt;only constituency&lt;/a&gt; to have ever elected an MP from Farage’s former party UKIP in a general election. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage announced his candidacy by making a &lt;a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wc06O-BKa-0"&gt;speech from London&lt;/a&gt;, in which he lent heavily on the kind of rhetoric that mobilised millions of British people in support of Brexit. Farage has long emphasised immigration and the alleged incapacity of Labour and Tories to stop it. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;He also made reference to other traditional populist motifs, including excessive taxation and soaring crime, claiming that in modern Britain “you can go shoplifting and nick up to 200 quid’s worth of kit before anyone is even going to prosecute you”.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;To bundle together these issues, Farage used the wider theme of national decline.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;There followed a lengthy tirade about young people not knowing what D-day was, apparently based on a &lt;a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fewer-than-half-of-young-people-know-what-happened-on-d-day-zc6xc2zxp"&gt;recent poll&lt;/a&gt; by the Commonwealth War Graves Commission that found more than half of people aged 18-34 aren’t sure what happened on D-day.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This, for Farage, is emblematic of an “economic”, “social” and even “moral” decline. He harkened back to D-day as a moment of British pride, emphasising how the nation is now far short of that moment.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;He chose this approach, reflecting on the past rather than the future, because the theme of national decline resonates loudly among people with rightwing inclinations. &lt;a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/pspi0000121"&gt;Research in political science&lt;/a&gt; has widely documented that people on the right are more nostalgic about the past than people on the left. It is more common for people on the right to want to go back to the old days – think for instance of Donald Trump’s famous slogan “Make America great again”.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;figure class="align-center "&gt; &lt;img alt="Clacton pier and beach on a sunny day." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/598217/original/file-20240603-19-ybg34x.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/598217/original/file-20240603-19-ybg34x.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=353&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/598217/original/file-20240603-19-ybg34x.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=353&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/598217/original/file-20240603-19-ybg34x.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=600&amp;amp;h=353&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/598217/original/file-20240603-19-ybg34x.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=443&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/598217/original/file-20240603-19-ybg34x.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=30&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=443&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/598217/original/file-20240603-19-ybg34x.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;q=15&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=754&amp;amp;h=443&amp;amp;fit=crop&amp;amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"&gt; &lt;figcaption&gt; &lt;span class="caption"&gt;Farage is running to be the MP for the Essex seaside town of Clacton.&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/view-cliff-top-along-beach-clacton-1817948039"&gt;Shutterstock/Nicola Pulman&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/figcaption&gt; &lt;/figure&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jts5.78"&gt;Research&lt;/a&gt; has shown that the right’s nostalgia for the past has a specific communitarian flavour. It is based on longing for a time when communities were more united, ordered and respectful of traditions. For someone adopting this narrative, it is all too easy to be persuaded that immigration is the root cause of why the community has lost its original cohesion.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Politicians who adopt this view can style themselves as the only people who can rescue the country, the only people who truly remember how good things used to be and the only people who understand how bad things have become now. They can then present themselves as the leaders who would have the will and the strength to bridge the chasm between then and now.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In his speech, Farage offered himself as the leader of just such a movement – of citizens who are aware of the decline and who are willing to resist it. In the long run, the call is to unite in the interests of reconstructing Britain as it was in the glory days.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Different world views&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;While politicians on the right stress decline, &lt;a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12971"&gt;research in political science&lt;/a&gt; has observed a more future-oriented outlook on the left in many countries, including the UK. Typically, leftwingers are not as fond of the past, but are more optimistic than rightwingers about what society can achieve in the future.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Want more general election coverage and analysis from The Conversation’s academic experts?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Sign up for our new, weekly &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/politics-weekly-170"&gt;UK politics newsletter&lt;/a&gt;, delivered every Friday throughout the campaign and beyond.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;Overall, then, &lt;a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12971"&gt;research&lt;/a&gt; suggests that rightwingers and leftwingers view the story of their country very differently. The right views this story as one of decline to be stopped, the left as one of potential for progress that needs to be grasped. Farage and Reform UK have realised that after 14 years in charge of the country, the Tory’s appeal among those who embrace the decline perspective may be waning.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage is in a position to capitalise on the fact that he is not stained by the tumultuous years of Tory government. He is still viewed by many as the man who led the people during one of the greatest political triumphs in recent times – the vote to leave the European Union in 2016. Farage said in his speech that since that moment “something has gone very, very wrong”.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage of course poses the most significant threat to the Tories, as his candidacy creates competition on the right. Reform UK could split the vote in some seats and Farage could win his. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;However, Farage’s use of the narrative of decline could cause problems for Labour, too. The party is aiming to recapture red wall constituencies where the decline story has &lt;a href="https://blogs.qub.ac.uk/pb-happ/2024/04/12/why-the-red-wall-turned-blue/"&gt;significant traction&lt;/a&gt;. Farage claimed in his speech that he believes his party “might just surprise everybody” in this region. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;More broadly, Farage’s return is likely to polarise the campaign. The threat posed by Reform is already leading the Tories to adopt more extreme positions on issues such as gender identity and climate change, apparently in the hope of assuring voters they are no less radical than Farage. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We should, therefore, brace for the battle between the “stop the decline” and the “struggle for a better future” narratives to ramp up now that Farage has entered the campaign as a candidate. He has, after all, claimed that he intends to lead “a revolt”.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/231581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Francesco Rigoli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Research from political science shows that rightwing voters respond to narratives that harken back to a better time.</summary> <author> <name>Francesco Rigoli, Reader in Psychology, City St George's, University of London</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/francesco-rigoli-1520418"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/111777</id> <published>2024-06-04T11:04:47Z</published> <updated>2024-06-04T11:04:47Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/election-2024-how-many-seats-every-party-in-westminster-is-defending-and-what-they-are-aiming-for-on-july-4-111777"/> <title>Election 2024: how many seats every party in Westminster is defending – and what they are aiming for on July 4</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;With polls predicting huge losses for the Conservatives and huge gains for Labour, the election campaign so far has focused on the battle between the two biggest parties in Westminster. But the parliamentary dynamics are exceptionally fluid this year. Here’s a summary of where every party in Westminster currently stands – and where they are hoping to be after July 4. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Conservatives: 346 seats and everything to lose&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Sunak’s Conservatives held 346 seats when he called the election. They started with 365 after the 2019 election but have lost &lt;a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-tories-conservatives-boris-johnson-owen-paterson-b1155417.html"&gt;11 in byelections&lt;/a&gt; since then. Several other former Conservative MPs have defected to other parties and others have been suspended. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;A hefty chunk of the party’s current MPs &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-conservative-mps-standing-down-at-this-election-are-a-huge-electoral-threat-to-rishi-sunak-230381"&gt;are standing down&lt;/a&gt;, leaving newly selected candidates to fight what is likely to be an incredibly difficult campaign for the party.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Conservatives are almost guaranteed to be sitting on the opposition benches in the next parliament, with one recent poll suggesting they could fall to just 66 seats – their &lt;a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/31/tories-face-being-reduced-to-just-66-seats-new-mrp-poll/"&gt;worst electoral performance ever&lt;/a&gt;. This could put them in dangerous territory. It would be a humiliation for Sunak if the party performed so poorly that it fell into third place behind the Liberal Democrats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Against this backdrop, winning 150 seats or more would be a pretty decent showing. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Labour: 205 seats and hoping for 400&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Labour Party won &lt;a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8749/"&gt;202 seats&lt;/a&gt; in the 2019 general election under its former leader Jeremy Corbyn. This has increased slightly since then, through a combination of defecting Conservative MPs and byelections. Labour &lt;a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240528191216/https://members.parliament.uk/parties/commons"&gt;ended the parliament&lt;/a&gt; with 205 seats.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The party’s &lt;a href="https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/blackpool-south-by-election-keir-starmer-hails-historic-labour-victory/"&gt;victory&lt;/a&gt; in Blackpool last month, where Chris Webb won 58% of the vote, was the sixth time Labour won a byelection with a swing of more than 20% since 2019. This bodes well for election day, where Starmer will be keen to try to win a comfortable majority and, if recent polling is correct, &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats"&gt;more than 400 seats&lt;/a&gt; in the House of Commons. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Scottish National Party: 43 MPs and worried&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The SNP have had some spectacular performances in recent general elections, bringing 56 MPs to the House of Commons in 2015, 35 in 2017 and 48 in 2019. But the party has struggled somewhat in the current parliament. It has lost three MPs to defections and the suspensions of Patrick Grady following sexual assault allegations and Margaret Ferrier for COVID rule-breaking shattered the SNP’s previously clean image in Westminster.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The SNP therefore heads into this election with 43 MPs. The party is battling two fronts, with the Alba party threatening to split the nationalist vote and Labour looking to win as many of Scotland’s 57 seats as possible.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Labour won Ferrier’s old seat in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection with a &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-67024848"&gt;20% swing&lt;/a&gt; and polling suggests they will &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/election-2024-scotland-headed-for-huge-change-with-snp-set-to-lose-dozens-of-seats-to-labour-230940"&gt;take many more seats&lt;/a&gt; from the SNP on July 4. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Liberal Democrats: 15 seats and wanting third place&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Liberal Democrats won 11 seats in the 2019 general election and this has since risen to 15 through four successful byelections. The party performed very strongly in recent local elections, gaining more councillors than Sunak’s Conservatives. Party Leader Ed Davey had a lot of fun over the first week of the campaign and won the party a lot of &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/02/you-can-laugh-all-you-like-at-ed-daveys-antics-if-they-restore-the-lib-dems-clout"&gt;much needed publicity&lt;/a&gt; in the process. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Seats like &lt;a href="https://www.suttonlibdems.org.uk/news/article/liberal-democrat-candidates-pledge-to-stand-up-for-sutton-as-general-election-announced-for-july-4th"&gt;Carshalton and Wallington&lt;/a&gt;, where the Liberal Democrats lost out to the Conservatives by just a few hundred votes in 2019, will surely turn yellow. With the SNP predicted to lose many of its Scottish seats, the Lib Dems will be hoping that they can reclaim their position as the official third party at Westminster. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Democratic Unionist Party: seven seats and struggling after scandal&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The DUP won eight seats in 2019 but technically lost one when Jeffrey Donaldson resigned &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-68686691"&gt;following sexual assault allegations&lt;/a&gt;. His seat in Lagan Valley has not yet been filled and will be hotly contested, particularly as Donaldson himself is not standing. DUP leader Gavin Robinson will have a tough battle in East Belfast against Alliance party leader Naomi Long.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Sinn Féin: standing aside in key seats&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Sinn Féin won seven seats in 2019. However, in line with its abstentionist policy, the party’s elected representatives never took their seats in the House of Commons. The party has already confirmed that it &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqee94582d5o"&gt;will not field candidates&lt;/a&gt; in four of Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies and will encourage its supporters to vote against Sunak’s Conservatives in those seats. This should work in the Alliance Party’s favour. One of Sinn Féin’s existing MPs – Michelle Gildernew – will also not be standing.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Plaid Cymru: hoping for gains on a new electoral map&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru won four seats in 2019. They fell to just three MPs in 2020 when Jonathan Edwards &lt;a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/plaid-cymru-suspends-mp-jonathan-edwards-after-being-arrested-on-suspicion-of-assault"&gt;was arrested for assault&lt;/a&gt;. Edwards, who has sat as an independent MP for most of the last parliament, has stood down, as has Hywel Williams, a hard working Plaid MP who has been in the Commons for over 20 years. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Plaid will be hoping to retain Williams’ Arfon seat, alongside those of the party’s Westminster leader Liz Saville-Roberts and Ben Lake, both of whom won with comfortable majorities in 2019 with Conservative candidates in second place. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Boundary changes mean that most constituencies in Wales have changed, but the party will be hoping to win back Edwards’s seat in the new Caerfyrddin constituency and perhaps to add Ynys Môn, held by Conservative MP Virginia Crosbie in 2019 with a relatively slender majority of just under 2000. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Alba: fighting its first election&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond’s pro-independence Alba party only formed in 2021, so this is its first ever general election campaign. It did however have two MPs in the last parliament, thanks to defections.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The addition of Alba to Scottish ballot papers threatens to split the nationalist vote and will make the election even more challenging for the SNP. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Social Democratic and Labour Party: aiming to hold two seats&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Northern Ireland’s SDLP returned two MPs in 2019 and will hope to retain them. The party has been inconsistent in recent elections, and even lost all its seats in 2017.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The nature of Northern Irish politics and electoral pacts between unionist and nationalist parties makes it difficult to predict what will happen here. The SDLP has, however, committed itself to fielding candidates in &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv22vwqvyy8o"&gt;every Northern Ireland constituency&lt;/a&gt;. Its leader Colum Eastwood won his Foyle seat &lt;a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/foyle-colum-eastwood-wins-back-seat-for-sdlp-with-record-breaking-victory/38781546.html"&gt;by a landslide&lt;/a&gt; at the last election, as did &lt;a href="https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/south-belfast-sdlps-claire-hanna-in-crushing-victory-over-dups-emma-little-pengelly/38781617.html"&gt;his colleague Claire Hanna&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Alliance: hoping to take a key DUP seat&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The centrist Alliance party, also specific to Northern Ireland, has never had more than one MP in the House of Commons. The party’s deputy leader Stephen Farry won the North Down seat for the party in 2019, though the DUP came a close second. Party leader Naomi Long will be trying to unseat the DUP Leader Gavin Robinson for the third time, having lost by 1,819 votes in 2019. She previously held the seat between 2010 and 2015.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The party has had growing success in the Northern Ireland Assembly, where it became the third largest party in 2022. Translating this into more Westminster seats will be tricky, but returning two MPs would be a good result. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Greens: targeting Bristol and Brighton&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Green Party’s one and only MP, Caroline Lucas, &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/caroline-lucas-and-the-heavy-burden-of-being-a-partys-only-member-of-parliament-207338"&gt;announced her resignation&lt;/a&gt; from parliament last year. She was the party’s first ever elected MP, holding her Brighton Pavilion constituency since 2010. The Greens are desperately hoping that former party co-leader Siân Berry can hold Lucas’s old seat.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Greens are also eying up Bristol Central, where the party’s current co-leader Carla Denyer is standing against Labour’s sitting MP Thangam Debbonaire in what could be a real neck-and-neck fight. The party is already the largest party on Bristol Council. On a national level, it will be hoping to perform even better than the 2019 election, when it received a pretty respectable 860,000 votes. With &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68956733"&gt;record breaking local election results&lt;/a&gt; last month, the Green party could hit 1 million votes this time. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Reform UK: causing trouble for the Tories&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform UK had one sitting MP in the last Parliament, following &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68532602"&gt;Lee Anderson’s defection&lt;/a&gt; from the Conservatives. Defections like this are how most small or new parties end up with House of Commons seats. Anderson won his seat with a 5,000 majority in 2019 and has a high profile thanks to his regular controversial contributions. But retaining his seat under a new party label will be very tricky.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform UK is fielding candidates across England, Scotland and Wales. It could take a substantial number of votes from the Conservatives, but the electoral system will probably mean that these votes are not concentrated enough to win more than the odd seat. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Workers Party of Britain: taking aim at Labour&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;This relatively new political party held just one seat in the last parliament, thanks to George Galloway’s Rochdale byelection success in February. Galloway will campaign to hold this seat and the party is hoping to woo Labour voters with its claims that Starmer is &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxwwkrykv0zo"&gt;“indistinguishable”&lt;/a&gt; from Sunak. With a &lt;a href="https://workerspartybritain.org/general-election-2024/"&gt;surprisingly long list&lt;/a&gt; of candidates for such a new party, it could prove something of an annoyance.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111777/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Louise Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>The Tories have 346 seats and could lose more than half of those. Labour is aiming for huge gains, the SNP is fighting for relevance – and the Lib Dems are hoping to become the third party again.</summary> <author> <name>Louise Thompson, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Manchester</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/louise-thompson-111729"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226039</id> <published>2024-04-22T11:22:27Z</published> <updated>2024-04-22T11:22:27Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/ignoring-welsh-farmers-protests-is-a-dangerous-move-for-politicians-226039"/> <title>Ignoring Welsh farmers’ protests is a dangerous move for politicians</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Farmers in Wales have been &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-farmers-up-in-arms-the-view-from-wales-223901"&gt;taking to the streets&lt;/a&gt; in a series of protests against the &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-farmers-up-in-arms-the-view-from-wales-223901"&gt;sustainable farming scheme&lt;/a&gt; (SFS), which the Welsh government is proposing as a post-Brexit replacement to the EU’s common agricultural policy. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;They’ve blocked motorways with convoys of tractors and held large rallies in the capital, Cardiff, leaving behind thousands of empty wellington boots to symbolise job losses. The tactics appear to have worked, with under-pressure ministers reportedly working on an &lt;a href="https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2024-03-08/i-expect-changes-will-be-made-minister-considers-controversial-farming-scheme"&gt;update&lt;/a&gt; to the policy. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The conflict over the SFS is about more than policy, however. It reflects perceptions that rural communities are misunderstood and ignored by politicians. We have previously conducted cross-country studies in Europe and found a pervasive belief that governments show bias towards urban over rural areas. We find the same in our new polling about the Welsh government – something that should be considered in the debate over the SFS.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;A Europe-wide divide&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Events in Wales are part of a wave of protests across Europe. Some are against &lt;a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/16/europe-farmers-climate-green-protest-eu"&gt;changes to regulations and subsidy schemes&lt;/a&gt; as part of a push towards net zero, others to protect domestic agriculture against newly &lt;a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68615476"&gt;tariff-free Ukrainian imports&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This is only the latest manifestation of “rural resentment” – beliefs that rural communities are economically, socially and politically marginalised. These sentiments have been associated with &lt;a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/10659129221124864?casa_token=L2zfndHlnOsAAAAA:-zs4Deg5GWzQPRT0abPa3romWa4E9x0__uwqTrvKRhYoEQosUySIenYJizvO7HvbxPXi6rJlkw"&gt;support for former US president Donald Trump&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="https://ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-6765.12452"&gt;radical right&lt;/a&gt; parties across Europe.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Rural areas in the UK have not generally been seen as groundswells of discontent, however. Political discourse in recent years has focused more on heavily Brexit-voting urban areas in the north of England. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In 2020 we ran surveys in the UK and four other European countries (France, Germany, Spain and Croatia) and found that in the UK, people were not as concerned as in other countries about the government having a pro-urban bias. They were more &lt;a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2023.2277381"&gt;concerned&lt;/a&gt; about bias towards London, the national capital.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It has not yet been fully explored whether people think the devolved governments in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are biased towards urban areas but this is a crucial question, given their responsibilities in key areas like agriculture. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Our current research investigates this, and our preliminary findings suggest that people do hold this view. In a survey of 728 Welsh adults from December 2023, 53% said that the Welsh government favoured urban areas and only 18% thought it favoured rural areas.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;As we found in the European study, alongside rural resentment, there appears to be a high level of urban sympathy. Indeed, in the Welsh survey, people in urban areas were just as likely as those living in rural areas to say the government had an urban bias. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The real divide is political, but not party political. Discontent cuts across party lines, but relates more closely to low trust in Welsh politics and also, to some extent, to &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/35619-who-supports-abolishing-devolved-parliaments-and-w"&gt;devolution-sceptic attitudes&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Anti-Labour or anti-politics?&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;As political scientists are prone to saying, “partisanship is a hell of a drug”. Are these attitudes just about disliking the party in power? In our cross-country study, we have not found large partisan differences. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In Wales, there are some differences but party supporters are still very happy to criticise governments run by parties they support. For instance, 70% of Conservative supporters believe the UK government is urban-biased, and 48% of Labour supporters think the same of the Welsh government (which is Labour-run).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;One notable distinction is that radical right (UKIP/Reform) supporters were more likely to say there was a very high level of bias from the Welsh government, and Plaid Cymru supporters to say the same of the UK government. Partisanship might affect the intensity of beliefs, but the tendency to think of governments as biased is fairly widespread.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The most robust association we found in the cross-country study was between the perception of bias and trust in politics. This carries over into the Welsh study: lower trust in Welsh politics is associated with urban bias perceptions, particularly with stronger perceptions. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We don’t know exactly what causes what, but the link to low trust suggests it will be difficult for politicians to persuade voters that they are bearing rural interests in mind when devising policies like the SFS.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;It can be healthy for people to be critical of specific governments, but we may grow more concerned if they &lt;a href="https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/news-and-opinion/territorial-inequalities-under-devolution-do-scottish-and-welsh-residents-perceive"&gt;reject their institutions&lt;/a&gt;. In Wales, a sizeable group (around one-fifth) would abolish the Welsh parliament – and it is among this group that perceptions of an urban bias are high. This points to the possibility that perceptions of bias undermine legitimacy.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Risk or opportunity?&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The dispute over the SFS presents risks for both Labour and the Welsh devolved government more broadly. For now, Welsh Labour has a huge poll lead over its rivals, which may cushion against electoral punishment even if it ploughs ahead with the SFS. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But doing so could entrench lasting perceptions of Labour as a party of and for the cities in a way that narrows its appeal. What’s more, the risk of allowing perceptions of anti-rural bias to fester is that it brings the wider political system (including the Welsh devolved institutions) into disrepute.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;A more optimistic view might see the dispute as an unusual opportunity. Where voters might cynically expect government to run roughshod over rural complaints, Labour could proceed sensitively and carefully, keeping an ear to the ground for rumblings of discontent – and hopefully avoiding any more damaging, high-profile setbacks to the net zero agenda.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226039/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Lawrence McKay receives funding from the British Academy to research urban-rural divides in Western Europe (grant number: PF22\220092) &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Davide Vampa receives funding from the British Academy for the project “Exploring the Emergence of New Territorial Divides after Devolution: An Analysis of the Socio-Political Gap between Capital Cities and Peripheral Areas in Scotland and Wales” (grant number: SRG23\230264) &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>Whether true or not, the UK’s political parties have failed to quash the perception that they prioritise cities.</summary> <author> <name>Lawrence McKay, Research Fellow in Politics, University of Southampton</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lawrence-mckay-1517626"/> </author> <author> <name>Davide Vampa, Senior Lecturer in Territorial Politics, University of Edinburgh</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/davide-vampa-688070"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/221355</id> <published>2024-01-18T16:49:32Z</published> <updated>2024-01-18T16:49:32Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/the-maths-of-rightwing-populism-easy-answers-confidence-reassuring-certainty-221355"/> <title>The maths of rightwing populism: easy answers + confidence = reassuring certainty</title> <content type="html">&lt;figure&gt;&lt;img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570085/original/file-20240118-17-no0zv8.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;amp;rect=149%2C77%2C3426%2C1820&amp;amp;q=45&amp;amp;auto=format&amp;amp;w=496&amp;amp;fit=clip" /&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;&lt;span class="caption"&gt; &lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="attribution"&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;Shutterstock/Pictrider&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/figcaption&gt;&lt;/figure&gt;&lt;p&gt;Rightwing populists appear to be enjoying a &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/iowa-was-different-this-time-even-if-the-outcome-was-as-predicted-221094"&gt;surge&lt;/a&gt; across the &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/far-right-poised-to-score-big-at-next-european-elections-214702"&gt;western world&lt;/a&gt;. For those who don’t support these parties, their appeal can be baffling and unsettling. They appear to play on people’s fears and offer somewhat trivial answers to difficult issues.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;But the mathematics of human inference and cognition can help us understand what makes this a winning formula.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Because politics largely boils down to communication, the mathematics of communication theory can help us understand why voters are drawn to parties that use simple, loud messaging in their campaigning – as well as how they get away with using highly questionable messaging. Traditionally, this is the theory that enables us to listen to radio broadcasts and &lt;a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Claude-Shannon#ref666143"&gt;make telephone calls&lt;/a&gt;. But American mathematician &lt;a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norbert_Wiener"&gt;Norbert Wiener&lt;/a&gt; went so far as to &lt;a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/153954.The_Human_Use_of_Human_Beings"&gt;argue&lt;/a&gt; that social phenomena can only be understood via the theory of communication.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Wiener tried to explain different aspects of society by evoking a concept in science known as the &lt;a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/second-law-of-thermodynamics"&gt;second law of thermodynamics&lt;/a&gt;. In essence, this law says that over time, order will turn into disorder, or, in the present context, reliable information will be overwhelmed by confusion, uncertainties and noise. In mathematics, the degree of disorder is often measured by a quantity called &lt;a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/entropy-physics"&gt;entropy&lt;/a&gt;, so the second law can be rephrased by saying that over time, and on average, entropy will increase.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;One of Wiener’s arguments is that as technologies for communication advance, people will circulate more and more inessential “noisy” information (think Twitter, Instagram and so on), which will overshadow facts and important ideas. This is becoming more pronounced with AI-generated disinformation. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The effect of the second law is significant in predicting the future form of society over a period of decades. But &lt;a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-43403-4"&gt;another aspect&lt;/a&gt; of communication theory also comes into play in the more immediate term.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;When we analyse information about a topic of interest, we will reach a conclusion that leaves us, on average, with the smallest uncertainty about that topic. In other words, our thought process attempts to minimise entropy. This means, for instance, when two people with opposing views on a topic are presented with an article on that subject, they will often take away different interpretations of the same article, with each confirming the validity of their own initial view. The reason is simple: interpreting the article as questioning one’s opinion will inevitably raise uncertainty.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In psychology, this effect is known as &lt;a href="https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias"&gt;confirmation bias&lt;/a&gt;. It is often interpreted as an irrational or illogical trait of our behaviour, but we now understand the science behind it by borrowing concepts from communication theory. I call this a “&lt;a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.797904/full"&gt;tenacious Bayesian&lt;/a&gt;” behaviour because it follows from the &lt;a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/bayes-theorem/"&gt;Bayes theorem&lt;/a&gt; of probability theory, which tells us how we should update our perspectives of the world as we digest noisy or uncertain information.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;A corollary of this is that if someone has a strong belief in one scenario which happens to represent a false reality, then even if factual information is in circulation, it will take a long time for that person to change their belief. This is because a conversion from one certainty to another typically (but not always) requires a path that traverses uncertainties we instinctively try to avoid.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Polarised society&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;When the tenacious Bayesian effect is combined with Wiener’s second law, we can understand how society becomes polarised. The second law says there will be a lot of diverging information and noise around us, creating confusion and uncertainty. We are drawn to information that offers greater certainty, even if it is flawed. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;For a binary issue, the greatest uncertainty happens when the two alternatives seem equally likely – and are therefore difficult to choose between. But for an individual person who believes in one of the two alternatives, the path of least uncertainty is to hold steady on that belief. So in a world in which any information can easily be disseminated far and wide but in which people are also immovable, society can easily be polarised.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Where are the leftwing populists?&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;If a society is maximally polarised, then we should find populists surging on both the left and right of the political spectrum. And yet that is not the case at the moment. The right is more dominant. The reason for this is, in part, that the left is not well-positioned to offer certainty. Why? Historically, socialism has rarely been implemented in running a country – not even the Soviet Union or China managed to implement it. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;At least for now, the left (or centrists, for that matter) also seem a lot more cautious about knowingly offering unrealistic answers to complex problems. In contrast, the right offers (often false) certainty with confidence. It is not difficult to see that in a noisy environment, the loudest are heard the most. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;strong&gt; Read more: &lt;a href="https://theconversation.com/why-have-authoritarianism-and-libertarianism-merged-a-political-psychologist-on-the-vulnerability-of-the-modern-self-218949"&gt;Why have authoritarianism and libertarianism merged? A political psychologist on 'the vulnerability of the modern self'&lt;/a&gt; &lt;/strong&gt; &lt;/em&gt; &lt;/p&gt; &lt;hr&gt; &lt;p&gt;Today’s politics plays out against a backdrop of uncertainties that include wars in Ukraine and Gaza with little prospect of exit strategies in sight; the continued cost of living crisis; energy, food and water insecurity; migration; and so on. Above all, the impact of the climate crisis.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The answer to this uncertainty, according to rightwing populists, is to blame everything on outsiders. Remove migrants and all problems will be solved – and all uncertainties eradicated. True or false, the message is simple and clear. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;In conveying this message, it is important to instil in the public an exaggerated fear of the impact of migration, so their message will give people a false sense of certainty. What if there are no outsiders? Then create one. Use the culture war to label the “experts” (judges, scholars, etc.) as the enemy of the people.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;For populists to thrive, society needs to be divided so that people can feel certain about where they belong – and so that those on the opposing side of the argument can be ignored. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The problem, of course, is that there are rarely simple solutions to complex issues. Indeed, a political party campaigning for a tough migration policy but weak climate measures is arguably enabling mass migration on a scale unseen in modern history, because climate change will make &lt;a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/"&gt;many parts of the world uninhabitable&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Wiener was already arguing in 1950 that we will pay the price for our actions at a time when it is most inconvenient to do so. Whatever needs to be done to solve complex societal issues, those who wish to implement what they believe are the right measures need to be aware that they have to win an election to do that – and that voters respond to simple and positive messages that will reduce the uncertainties hanging over their thoughts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221355/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Dorje C Brody receives funding from the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EP/X019926/1).&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>In an uncertain world our natural instinct is to seek out answers that reassure, even when they don’t make sense.</summary> <author> <name>Dorje C. Brody, Professor of Mathematics, University of Surrey</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dorje-c-brody-1356441"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> <entry> <id>tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/149705</id> <published>2020-11-17T16:57:57Z</published> <updated>2020-11-17T16:57:57Z</updated> <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://theconversation.com/nigel-farage-turns-his-attention-to-opposing-lockdown-should-we-care-149705"/> <title>Nigel Farage turns his attention to opposing lockdown – should we care?</title> <content type="html">&lt;p&gt;Despite being busy supporting the Trump campaign in the US, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has kept one eye trained on the British political scene. Never one to miss an opportunity for disruption, Farage’s attention now turns to being &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1324027678052200448"&gt;“an opposition voice to lockdown”&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Farage’s Brexit Party will be renamed &lt;a href="https://www.thebrexitparty.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Refrom-UK-Telegraph-Article-Nov-1-2020.pdf"&gt;“Reform UK”&lt;/a&gt; and its primary focus will be opposing coronavirus restrictions in the UK. The decision was announced just as England entered its second national lockdown in a year, prohibiting most social gatherings and enforcing a wide range of non-essential business closures.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;This is, of course, not the first time Farage has used his cult-like &lt;a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/11/06/beyond-no-deal-what-else-does-the-brexit-party-want/"&gt;populist&lt;/a&gt; status to harness the power of voter discontent in a time of crisis to pressure government. This time he has sensed that confusion over the pandemic is driving distrust of government. Sections of the public appear to be particularly responsive to suggestions that experts are producing &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1325882516847341570"&gt;“dodgy data”&lt;/a&gt; rather than grappling with a never-before-seen problem.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Although Reform UK is launching with an anti-lockdown message, it’s continuing the Brexit Party’s broader goal to &lt;a href="https://www.thebrexitparty.org/"&gt;“change politics for good”&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The Brexit party promised a “political revolution”. It called for electoral reform to end Labour and Conservative dominance in Westminster and abolition of the House of Lords. Following the 2016 Brexit vote it also wanted referendums to become a common part of British decision-making.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform UK looks set to continue this trend. Having a rallying cause like opposing lockdown can be seen as a useful way to build an identity in the post-Brexit world. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Younger voters&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;The big question is who Reform UK is appealing to. Libertarian Conservative types who disagree with the government’s draconian stance are obvious targets but the party could have appeal beyond older groups.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform UK’s anti-government grievances focus on “businesses and jobs being destroyed” by lockdown. With UK unemployment rising, this message may also strike a chord with working-class voters fearing ongoing precarity.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Opponents to lockdown policies are also generally younger and not characteristic Brexiteers. A recent &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2020/11/01/snap-poll-72-english-people-back-prime-ministers-p"&gt;poll&lt;/a&gt; showed 32% of people aged 18-24 oppose lockdown, compared to 20% of over-65s. Asked about a potential &lt;a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/06/half-britons-wouldnt-mind-if-restrictions-are-stil"&gt;Christmas lockdown&lt;/a&gt;, 55% of people aged 65+ said they weren’t fussed about it while 41% of 18-to-24-year-olds said the same.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Events such as the “prison-like” fencing-in of students at the University of Manchester as part of coronavirus restrictions have the potential to increase antagonism towards lockdown among younger voters. Brexit party chairman Richard Tice appeared to recognise as much by &lt;a href="https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1324394969545789441"&gt;tweeting about the incident&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{&amp;quot;tweetId&amp;quot;:&amp;quot;1324394969545789441&amp;quot;}"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;And with current Labour leader Keir Starmer supporting lockdown, it could be that Reform UK spots an opportunity to win over younger Labour voters who oppose the government’s approach. We should also note that the Brexit Party has been branching out much further across the political spectrum than its largely right-wing predecessor UKIP. Farage may not carry much personal appeal for younger Labour voters but his team now counts the likes of left-wing peer Claire Fox among its ranks. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;h2&gt;Political positioning&lt;/h2&gt; &lt;p&gt;Despite all this, beyond the immediate desire to return to normality, its hard to imagine younger voters switching allegiances for the long term, especially with Farage as leader. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Reform UK is fighting an uphill battle. After all, the Conservatives have a strong majority, and the next general election isn’t due until 2024. But forthcoming local elections in May 2021 provide the potential for breakthrough and Farage has form here, having returned 163 UKIP councillors in the 2014 local elections. &lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Furthermore, Farage formed the Brexit Party and quickly led it to an unlikely victory in the 2019 European elections. That indicates the potential for possible upset. While this success was not repeated in the following general election, the Brexit Party still claimed some of the victory when former prime minister Theresa May was ousted in favour of a pro-Brexit Boris Johnson government.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;With growing discontent in Johnson’s handling of Brexit and COVID, Farage and his team appear to sense that this a good moment to surge forward. The populist simplicity of opposing lockdown is a strong antidote to the increasingly confusing and fluctuating demands of controlling COVID. Even though public sentiment against lockdown remains limited, shy sceptics may soon fall for Farage’s charm. The longer this crisis persists, the stronger anti-establishment forces like Reform UK could become.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Electoral victories may seem unlikely but the Brexit Party thrived on exerting pressure by threatening to split the vote in battleground areas. Reform UK could do similar in order to push Johnson’s government into coronavirus policy concessions. A recent series of U-turns, including on free school meals, shows leadership instability. Sensing weakness and further government failure on COVID, Farage and co are ready to pounce. That could herald significant disruption to the lockdown consensus.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /&gt; &lt;p class="fine-print"&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Callum Tindall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</content> <summary>The Brexit Party has become Reform UK. What are they up to now?</summary> <author> <name>Callum Tindall, Doctoral Researcher in Politics, University of Nottingham</name> <foaf:homepage rdf:resource="https://theconversation.com/profiles/callum-tindall-893348"/> </author> <rights>Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.</rights> </entry> </feed>