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<article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="994" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>受访人：国投安信期货<a href='https://m.myagric.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>农产品</a>团队</p> <p>受访人观点：美国农业部1月供需平衡表对美豆产量下调幅度超出市场预期，美豆单边价格反弹走强至1520美分/蒲式耳。平衡表对南美大豆调整幅度基本符合市场预期甚至整体略微偏空。巴西和阿根廷大豆单产的调整基本考虑了当前干旱天气下的潜在不利影响。但是巴西大豆种植面积大幅提高（环比增幅1.17%），抵消了巴西单产下调的影响（环比降幅0.19%），导致了巴西大豆产量的上调和丰产预期。</p> <p>报告的意外利多，价格进一步走强，短期的利多因素交易殆尽。2月供需报告前的单边价格走势，与南美天气的相关性进一步升高。未来两周巴西大部分主产州降雨良好，阿根廷主产州降雨增加，短期价格或许会小幅回调。另一方面，巴西新季大豆产量目前预计1.53亿吨，历年同期最高水平，继续上调的边际较小。南美大豆产量定产之前，美豆单边价格大幅下跌的幅度有限。</p> <p>国内方面，目前市场偏看空年后需求，油厂年后远期基差销售难度有所增加。另一方面，巴西新季大豆近月船期压榨利润有所好转，成本端偏利空豆粕远月基差价格以及月间价差。需要关注的是节后的大豆到港节奏，今日最新市场传言称，受产地转船影响，国内3月到港量或许有所延迟，此前市场普遍预计2、3月国内大豆到港总量1200-1300万吨水平，目前存在下调可能。</p> <p>公司简介：国投安信期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立，国家工商总局核准登记注册的大型期货公司，注册资本18.86亿元。公司为上海期货交易所、大连商品交易所、郑州商品交易所、广州期货交易所、上海国际能源交易中心会员单位，中国金融期货交易所全面结算会员单位。 国投安信期货一直以良好的信誉、安全快捷的交易通道及规范严格的风险管理竭诚为投资者提供专业化期货服务。多年来，公司牢牢把握“为客户提供专业的衍生品服务，持续为客户、员工、股东、社会创造价值，推动中国衍生品市场发展”的公司使命，通过差异化竞争策略，在为客户提供多元化研发产品、一站式交割服务、专业性定制化服务等方面形成了核心竞争优势，在业内树立了良好的口碑和品牌形象。</p> <p> </p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘莉 021-26094266 </br> 资讯监督：朱喜安 021-26093675 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-7156-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-7156-------------1.html" external class="more"> 查看更多<i 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