CINXE.COM

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> <html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> <head profile="http://gmpg.org/xfn/11"><script type="text/javascript" src="/_static/js/bundle-playback.js?v=HxkREWBo" charset="utf-8"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/_static/js/wombat.js?v=txqj7nKC" charset="utf-8"></script> <script>window.RufflePlayer=window.RufflePlayer||{};window.RufflePlayer.config={"autoplay":"on","unmuteOverlay":"hidden"};</script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/_static/js/ruffle/ruffle.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> __wm.init("https://web.archive.org/web"); __wm.wombat("http://prbblog.org:80/?p=71","20091009090835","https://web.archive.org/","web","/_static/", "1255079315"); </script> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/_static/css/banner-styles.css?v=S1zqJCYt" /> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/_static/css/iconochive.css?v=3PDvdIFv" />  <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8"/> <script type="text/JavaScript">  </script> <title>Behind the Numbers: The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment » Blog Archive » Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited </title> <meta name="generator" content="WordPress 2.3.3"/>  <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835cs_/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/themes/prb-blog/style.css" type="text/css" media="screen"/> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="Behind the Numbers: The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment RSS Feed" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?feed=rss2"/> <link rel="pingback" href="http://prbblog.org/xmlrpc.php"/> <meta name="type" content="Section"> <meta name="language" content="english"> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8"/><meta name="CODE_LANGUAGE" content="C#"/><meta name="vs_defaultClientScript" content="JavaScript"/><meta name="vs_targetSchema" content="http://schemas.microsoft.com/intellisense/ie5"/> <link rel="SHORTCUT ICON" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835im_/http://www.prb.org/favicon.ico"/></head> <link rel="EditURI" type="application/rsd+xml" title="RSD" href="http://prbblog.org/xmlrpc.php?rsd"/> <link rel="wlwmanifest" type="application/wlwmanifest+xml" href="http://prbblog.org/wp-includes/wlwmanifest.xml"/> <style type="text/css">.recentcomments a{display:inline !important;padding: 0 !important;margin: 0 !important;}</style> </head> <body> <script type="text/javascript">  </script>  <div class="newheader"> <div class="functional"> <p class="links"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Bookstore.aspx">Bookstore</a>/ <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Contact.aspx">Contact</a>/ <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/SpanishContent.aspx"> Espanol</a>/ <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/FrenchContent.aspx"> Francais</a></p> </div> <div class="banner"> <div class="logo"> <img height="99" width="210" alt="PRB" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835im_/http://www.prb.org/images/new_banner/logo.gif"/> </div> <div class="title wide"> <img height="63" width="564" alt="Population Reference Bureau" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835im_/http://www.prb.org/images/new_banner/title.gif"/> </div> <ul class="nav sf-menu sf-js-enabled"> <li class="first home_tab"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/"> <span>Home</span> </a> </li> <li class="data_tab"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/DataFinder.aspx"> <span>DataFinder</span> </a> </li> <li class="educator_tab"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Educators.aspx"> <span>Educators</span> </a> </li> <li class="journalist_tab"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Journalists.aspx"> <span>Journalists</span> </a> </li> <li class="event_tab"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/EventsTraining.aspx"> <span>Events and Training</span> </a> </li> <li class="publication_tab"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Publications.aspx"> <span>Publications</span> </a> </li> <li class="about_tab"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/About.aspx"> <span>About PRB</span> </a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div align="center" style="margin-top: -20px;"> <br><br><br/><br/><center><table width="960" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tr><td>  <div id="wrap"> <div id="header"><h1><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/">Behind the Numbers: The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment</a></h1></div> <div class="hr"></div> <div class="hr2"></div> <div class="left"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Authors</h2> <ul> <li class="widget widget_authors"> <ul><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=4" title="Posts by Bill Butz">Bill Butz</a> (8)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=6" title="Posts by Carl Haub">Carl Haub</a> (5)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=11" title="Posts by Charlie Teller">Charlie Teller</a> (6)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=19" title="Posts by Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs">Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=14" title="Posts by Deborah Mesce">Deborah Mesce</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=10" title="Posts by Eric Zuehlke">Eric Zuehlke</a> (4)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=20" title="Posts by Farzaneh Roudi">Farzaneh Roudi</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=13" title="Posts by Jason Bremner">Jason Bremner</a> (6)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=16" title="Posts by Jay Gribble">Jay Gribble</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=18" title="Posts by Karin Ringheim">Karin Ringheim</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=17" title="Posts by Marissa Yeakey">Marissa Yeakey</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=12" title="Posts by Mark Mather">Mark Mather</a> (6)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=21" title="Posts by Nadwa Mossaad">Nadwa Mossaad</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?author=15" title="Posts by Victoria Ebin">Victoria Ebin</a> (2)</li></ul> </li> </ul> <ul> <li id="categories-1" class="widget widget_categories"><h2 class="widgettitle">Topics</h2> <ul> <li class="cat-item cat-item-1"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=1" title="blog on the PRB topic: Aging">Aging</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-3"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=3" title="Blog on the PRB topic- Education">Education</a> (2) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-4"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=4" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Environment">Environment</a> (9) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-5"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=5" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Gender">Gender</a> (3) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-6"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=6" title="Blog on the PRB topic of HIV/AIDS">HIV/AIDS</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-7"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=7" title="Blog on the PRB Topic of Immigration/Migration">Immigration/Migration</a> (2) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-8"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=8" title="Blog on the topic of Income/Poverty">Income/Poverty</a> (7) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-9"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=9" title="Blog on the topic of Marriage Family">Marriage/Family</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-10"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="Blog about the topic of Population basics">Population Basics</a> (15) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-31"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=31" title="View all posts filed under PRB News">PRB News</a> (21) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-12"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=12" title="Blog on the topic of reproductive health ">Reproductive Health</a> (11) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-13"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=13" title="Blog on the topic of Youth">Youth</a> (6) </li> </ul> </li> <li id="tag_cloud" class="widget widget_tag_cloud"><h2 class="widgettitle">Tags</h2> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=burkina-faso" class="tag-link-61" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Burkina Faso</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=census" class="tag-link-39" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 16.4pt;">census</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=cities" class="tag-link-68" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">cities</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=climate-change" class="tag-link-69" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">climate change</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=contraception" class="tag-link-53" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">contraception</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=education" class="tag-link-3" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Education</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=engage" class="tag-link-55" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">ENGAGE</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=environment" class="tag-link-4" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Environment</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=ethiopia" class="tag-link-41" title="4 topics" style="font-size: 12.2pt;">Ethiopia</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=europe" class="tag-link-46" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Europe</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=evaluation" class="tag-link-48" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">evaluation</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=family-planning" class="tag-link-27" title="9 topics" style="font-size: 19.2pt;">family planning</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=fertility" class="tag-link-45" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 10.8pt;">fertility</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=food" class="tag-link-32" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">food</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=health-insurance" class="tag-link-72" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">health insurance</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=hivaids" class="tag-link-6" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">HIV/AIDS</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=india" class="tag-link-58" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">India</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=iran" class="tag-link-65" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Iran</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=journalism" class="tag-link-42" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">journalism</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=kenya" class="tag-link-54" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 16.4pt;">Kenya</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=mali" class="tag-link-62" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Mali</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=malnutrition" class="tag-link-33" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">malnutrition</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=media" class="tag-link-59" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 16.4pt;">media</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=migrants" class="tag-link-36" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">migrants</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=nano" class="tag-link-63" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Nano</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=pakistan" class="tag-link-52" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Pakistan</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=photos" class="tag-link-51" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 10.8pt;">photos</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=policy" class="tag-link-30" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">policy</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=population-growth" class="tag-link-38" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">population growth</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=poverty" class="tag-link-29" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">poverty</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=prb-in-the-field" class="tag-link-50" title="11 topics" style="font-size: 22pt;">PRB in the field</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=recession" class="tag-link-67" title="5 topics" style="font-size: 13.6pt;">recession</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=rwanda" class="tag-link-56" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">Rwanda</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=senegal" class="tag-link-60" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Senegal</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=statistics" class="tag-link-44" title="4 topics" style="font-size: 12.2pt;">statistics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=tanzania" class="tag-link-49" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">tanzania</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=transportation" class="tag-link-64" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">transportation</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=turkey" class="tag-link-57" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Turkey</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=us" class="tag-link-40" title="10 topics" style="font-size: 20.6pt;">U.S.</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=unemployment" class="tag-link-66" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Unemployment</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=urbanization" class="tag-link-70" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">urbanization</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=video" class="tag-link-37" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">video</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=water" class="tag-link-71" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">water</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?tag=women" class="tag-link-43" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">women</a></li> <li id="recent-posts" class="widget widget_recent_entries"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Recent Posts</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=80">Dispatches From the International Population Conference, Day 4 </a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=79">More U.S. Households Receiving Food Stamps </a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=78">Dispatches From the International Population Conference, Day 2 </a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=77">Dispatches From the International Population Conference, Day 1 </a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=76">Recession’s Social Impact on U.S. Population </a></li> </ul> </li> <li id="archives" class="widget widget_archives"><h2 class="widgettitle">Archives</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200910" title="October 2009">October 2009</a> (1)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200909" title="September 2009">September 2009</a> (6)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200908" title="August 2009">August 2009</a> (3)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200907" title="July 2009">July 2009</a> (4)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200906" title="June 2009">June 2009</a> (3)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200905" title="May 2009">May 2009</a> (3)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200904" title="April 2009">April 2009</a> (9)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200903" title="March 2009">March 2009</a> (4)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200902" title="February 2009">February 2009</a> (1)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200901" title="January 2009">January 2009</a> (6)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200812" title="December 2008">December 2008</a> (3)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200811" title="November 2008">November 2008</a> (3)</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?m=200810" title="October 2008">October 2008</a> (5)</li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="right"> <ul> <li> <h2 class="widgettitle">Blog Search</h2> <div id="search"><form method="get" id="searchform" action="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/"> <div><input type="text" value="" name="s" id="s"/> <input type="submit" id="searchsubmit" value="Go"/> </div> </form> </div> <div style="clear: both;"></div> </li> <li id="text-1" class="widget widget_text"> <h2 class="widgettitle">About the PRB Blog</h2> <div class="textwidget"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?page_id=2">The PRB blog is....</a> </div> </li> <li id="recent-comments" class="widget widget_recent_comments"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Recent Comments</h2> <ul id="recentcomments"><li class="recentcomments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://nceph.anu.edu.au/" rel="external nofollow">Colin Butler</a> on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=66#comment-515">Are You an Optimist or a Pessimist in Ethiopia?</a></li><li class="recentcomments">Mark Mather on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=75#comment-502">New Data on U.S. Health Insurance Coverage</a></li><li class="recentcomments">Laura Nolan on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=75#comment-489">New Data on U.S. Health Insurance Coverage</a></li><li class="recentcomments">Mark Lauer on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=71#comment-473">Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited</a></li><li class="recentcomments"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://alouettelulu.com/" rel="external nofollow">Anna Gallés</a> on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=71#comment-457">Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited</a></li></ul> </li> <li id="links" class="widget widget_links"><h2 class="widgettitle">Blogroll</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://blogs.cgdev.org/globalhealth/">Center for Global Development: Global Health Policy Blog</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/">Center for Global Development: Views from the Center</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://demographymatters.blogspot.com/">Demography Matters</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.globaldashboard.org/">Global Dashboard: Notes from the Future</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://gsionline.csis.org/">Global Strategy Institute Online</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://globalhealth.sais-jhu.edu/">Johns Hopkins University: Global Health and Foreign Policy Blog</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://geography.about.com/b/">Matt’s Geography Blog</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/">New York Times: Dot Earth Blog</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://populationaction.org/blog/">Population Action International blog</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prcdc.org/blog/">Population Resource Center: Population Counts</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://censusprojectblog.org/">The Census Project Blog</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://thecityfix.com/">The City Fix</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://newsecuritybeat.blogspot.com/">The New Security Beat</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://earthtrends.wri.org/">World Resources Institute: EarthTrends</a></li> </ul> </li> <li id="meta" class="widget widget_meta"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Meta</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/wp-login.php">Login</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?feed=rss2" title="Syndicate this site using RSS 2.0">Entries <abbr title="Really Simple Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?feed=comments-rss2" title="The latest comments to all posts in RSS">Comments <abbr title="Really Simple Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://wordpress.org/" title="Powered by WordPress, state-of-the-art semantic personal publishing platform.">WordPress.org</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="middle"> <div class="post" id="post-71"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=71" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link: Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited">Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited</a></h2> <p class="postmetadata"><small>August 7th, 2009 Jason Bremner </small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=4" title="View all posts in Environment" rel="category">Environment</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> | </p> <div> <p><em>by Jason Bremner, program director, Population, Health, and Environment</em> </p> <p>Andy Revkin’s <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/06/fertility-rise-for-richest-boon-or-trouble/">post this week </a>on The New York Times’ <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/">DotEarth blog </a>highlights a <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/edsumm/e090806-10.html">recent paper </a>published in <em>Nature</em> that indicates that countries with the highest Human Development Index are seeing rises in fertility. Revkin asks if this is a boon or trouble, and refers specifically to what impact rising fertility among the richest countries might have on climate change.</p> <p>At first glance, the article suggests a fundamental change in our understanding of the relationship between fertility and development. However, the United Nations Population Division’s (UNPD) medium projections for world population already account for an increase in fertility among developed countries. The medium variant projection, which would put world population at about 9 billion by 2050 assumes that fertility in more developed countries will increase from a low level of 1.56 in the 1990’s to 1.8 by 2050. The world population projections are an aggregation of individual country level projections based on the most recent census and the best available data on fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Even for countries that have continued to experience fertility declines, such as Japan and Canada, the UNPD medium variant projection assumes an eventual reversal of the trend and an increase in fertility. More information about these assumptions can be found on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=4">UNPD’s website</a>.</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835im_/http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3204/2446411820_af21325836_m.jpg"/></p> <p style="text-align: center"><em>Photo used under Creative Commons from </em><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.flickr.com/photos/naoyafujii/"><em>naoyafujii</em></a></p> <p>As for the second part of the question (how will this increase impact the environment and specifically climate change), there is already quite a bit of research on the link between population and climate change, and population projections are already one of the backbones of the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s </a>(IPCC) carbon emissions <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0">scenarios.</a> The IPCC actually uses the UNPD’s <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=56">medium variant population projections </a>in their emissions scenarios, which suggests that the observed fertility increase among the most developed countries of the world is already accounted for in current scenarios. </p> <p align="left">A more important question, however, is whether the consideration of population growth alone is adequate in current IPCC scenarios. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Working_Papers/April_2009/Summary.shtml">Research summarized </a>by Population Action International suggests that age composition, the urban and rural distribution of a population, and the number of households as well as the number of people living in each household all have an impact on emissions. For example, estimates of carbon emissions in China are 45 percent greater if aging and urbanization trends are considered in scenarios in combination with population size, while in the United States, aging results in reduced emissions scenarios. </p> <p>Instead of asking whether rises in fertility in the most developed countries is a boon or trouble, perhaps we should examine what other types of demographic shifts are occurring and how these affect the environment. Are aging, urbanization, and household size affecting climate change more than fertility rates? If so, what should be done?</p> <br/> <p> <small> <span> You can follow any responses to this entry through the</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?feed=rss2&p=71">RSS 2.0</a> <span>feed.</span> <span>You can </span><a href="#respond">leave a response</a>, <span>or</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/wp-trackback.php?p=71" rel="trackback">trackback</a> <span>from your own site.</span> </span></small> </p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=71&title=Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div>  <div class="comments"><h3>3 Responses to “Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited”</h3></div> <ol class="commentlist"> <li class="alt" id="comment-418"> <div class="gcomment"><cite><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp" rel="external nofollow">Geoff Dabelko</a></cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-418" title="">August 7th, 2009 at 4:43 pm</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>Great stuff Jason. Thanks so much for giving Revkin’s column such a serious response.</p> </div> </li> <li id="comment-457"> <div class="gcomment"><cite><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://alouettelulu.com/" rel="external nofollow">Anna Gallés</a></cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-457" title="">August 25th, 2009 at 7:34 am</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>There are many other demographic shifts that affect the environment, for sure. But it is true that population size, by itself, is a huge issue. Accelerated human population growth always puts pressure onto ecosystems.<br/> The plans of converting into farmland vast extensions of African savannah and Brazilian rainforest are examples that show how our ever increasing need for resources, is depleting biodiversity.<br/> I wish our species was responsible enough to maintain reasonable population levels - or will we act as lemmings?</p> </div> </li> <li class="alt" id="comment-473"> <div class="gcomment"><cite>Mark Lauer</cite> Says: <br/> <small class="commentmetadata"><a href="#comment-473" title="">September 9th, 2009 at 3:49 am</a> </small></div> <div class="ucomment"><p>There seem to be serious problems with the Nature paper’s conclusions anyway. See my guest post on the Stubborn Mule:<br/> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.stubbornmule.net/2009/09/baby-bounce/" rel="nofollow">http://www.stubbornmule.net/2009/09/baby-bounce/</a></p> </div> </li> </ol> <div class="comments"><h3>Leave a Reply</h3></div> <form action="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/wp-comments-post.php" method="post" id="commentform"> <p><input type="text" name="author" id="author" value="" size="22" tabindex="1"/> <label for="author"><small>Name (required)</small></label></p> <p><input type="text" name="email" id="email" value="" size="22" tabindex="2"/> <label for="email"><small>Mail (will not be published) (required)</small></label></p> <p><input type="text" name="url" id="url" value="" size="22" tabindex="3"/> <label for="url"><small>Website</small></label></p>  <p><textarea name="comment" id="comment" cols="60%" rows="10" tabindex="4"></textarea></p> <p><input name="submit" type="submit" id="submit" tabindex="5" value="Submit Comment"/> <input type="hidden" name="comment_post_ID" value="71"/> </p> </form> <div class="alignleft">« <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=70">“Like a Wave on Top of a Tsunami”: Have the Food Price and Financial Crises Increased World Hunger and Malnutrition?</a></div> <div class="alignright"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://prbblog.org/?p=72">World Population Data Sheet 2009 - 7 Billion People by 2011</a> »</div> </div> </td></tr></table></center>  <br/><br/> <div align="center"> <div align="center" id="ftr"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer2.gif" width="3" height="23" align="right"/><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer1.gif" width="3" height="23" align="left"/><span class="footertext">Services: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Home/EmailSignup.aspx">Get E-Mail News</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Join.aspx">Join/Renew Membership</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Donate.aspx">Donate</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Bookstore.aspx">Bookstore</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Home/Contact.aspx">Contact</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/SpanishContent.aspx">Español</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/FrenchContent.aspx">Français</a></span></div> <span class="footer2text"><b>Copyright 2007, Population Reference Bureau.</b> All rights reserved. • <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www.prb.org/Home/Privacy.aspx">Privacy Policy</a></span><br/> <span class="footer2text">1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW • Suite 520 • Washington, DC 20009-5728 • USA <br/> <b>Phone:</b> 800-877-9881 • <b>Fax:</b> 202-328-3937 • <b>E-mail:</b> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/mailto:popref@prb.org">popref@prb.org</a></span><br/> </div>  </div>  <script type="text/javascript"> var gaJsHost = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? "https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/https://ssl." : "https://web.archive.org/web/20091009090835/http://www."); document.write(unescape("%3Cscript src='" + gaJsHost + "google-analytics.com/ga.js' type='text/javascript'%3E%3C/script%3E")); </script> <script type="text/javascript"> try { var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker("UA-6730966-1"); pageTracker._trackPageview(); } catch(err) {}</script>  </body> </html>