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content="#e90606"/><title>Will a Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire Last? | TIME</title><meta name="description" content="A ceasefire came into effect after the heaviest day of raids on Beirut, Lebanon. Here's what to know. "/><meta name="application-name" content="nextgen"/><link rel="author" href="https://time.com/author/firas-maksad/"/><meta name="author" content="Firas Maksad"/><link rel="manifest" href="/manifest.webmanifest" crossorigin="use-credentials"/><meta name="creator" content="Firas Maksad"/><meta name="category" content="Ideas"/><meta name="fb:app_id" content="991230477954201"/><meta name="fb:pages" content="10606591490"/><meta name="primary-tag" content="middle-east"/><meta name="article:opinion" content="false"/><meta name="article:content_tier" content="free"/><meta name="article:published_time" content="2024-11-26T21:09:49"/><meta name="pinterest:url" content="https://time.com/7198619/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-what-next/"/><meta name="pinterest:description" content="Questions remain over whether a truce can bring lasting stability to the volatile Lebanon-Israel border, writes Firas Maksad. 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aria-label="Advertisement" data-native="false"></div></div><main id="article-main" class="flex w-full max-w-article-container flex-col items-center pt-8 lg:px-6 lg:pt-12"><div id="article-header" class="flex w-full flex-col justify-center"><header class="col-span-full flex max-w-article-header flex-col items-center justify-center self-center px-4 pb-6"><div class="group text-center font-roboto-condensed text-xs uppercase text-time-gray-3 opacity-0 transition-opacity has-[iframe[data-load-complete="true"]]:opacity-100 mb-1.5 h-16"><span class="hidden group-has-[iframe[data-load-complete="true"]]:block ">Presented By</span><div id="sponsorshiplogo1" class="ad flex min-h-[1px] w-full min-w-[1px] max-w-[100vw] items-center justify-center overflow-hidden bg-transparent text-center group-[.disable-ads]:hidden print:hidden flex " role="complementary" aria-label="Advertisement" data-native="false"></div></div><ul class="flex justify-center"><li class="font-roboto-condensed text-xs font-bold uppercase leading-4 tracking-wider after:mx-1.5 after:inline-block after:h-1 after:w-1 after:-translate-y-1/2 after:rounded-full after:bg-time-red"><a href="https://time.com/section/ideas" aria-label="Ideas">Ideas</a></li><li class="font-roboto-condensed text-xs font-bold uppercase leading-4 tracking-wider "><a href="https://time.com/tag/middle-east" aria-label="Middle East">Middle East</a></li><li class="hidden">Will a Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire Last?</li></ul><div class="mb-4 mt-2 lg:mb-[1.4625rem]"><h1 class="text-center text-[1.75rem] font-medium leading-[1.875rem] tracking-0.5px lg:text-[2.4375rem] lg:leading-[2.9375rem] font-zilla-slab self-baseline">Will a Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire Last?</h1><div class="mt-2 text-center font-roboto-condensed text-sm font-bold uppercase tracking-[0.6px] text-time-gray-3 md:text-base ">5 minute read</div></div></header></div><div id="article-content" class="flex w-full justify-center lg:justify-between lg:gap-5"><div id="article-content-main" class="flex w-full max-w-article-featured-media flex-col items-center"><div class="featured-media w-full max-w-full" data-type="video"><div class="video-wrapper"><div class="w-full bg-time-black aspect-video"><div id="jwplayer-:R2pjt9btttsba:"></div></div></div></div><article id="article-body" class="flex w-full max-w-article-body-centered flex-col lg:max-w-article-body"><div class="my-6 w-full px-4 lg:pl-[6.5rem] lg:pr-14"><div class="flex items-center"><div class="mr-3 flex h-[3.75rem] w-[3.75rem] shrink-0 items-center justify-center rounded-full bg-time-red font-roboto-condensed text-15px font-bold uppercase tracking-0.5px text-white">Ideas</div><div><div class="font-zilla-slab text-xs uppercase leading-6 tracking-[0.01563em] text-time-gray-4 "><div class="mr-3 inline-block">By <a href="/author/firas-maksad/" class="font-bold">Firas Maksad</a></div><div class="inline-block"><time dateTime="2024-11-26T21:09:49.000Z">November 26, 2024 4:09 PM EST</time></div></div><div class="font-zilla-slab text-sm italic leading-6 tracking-[0.018125em] text-time-black"><div>Firas Maksad is a senior fellow and senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, a think tank in Washington D.C.</div></div></div></div></div><div id="article-body-main" class="flex w-full flex-col gap-7 [&>*:not(.inline-image)]:px-4 [&>*:not(.inline-image)]:lg:pl-[6.5rem] [&>*:not(.inline-image)]:lg:pr-14 [&>.inline-image]:sm:px-4 [&>.inline-image]:lg:pl-[6.5rem] [&>.inline-image]:lg:pr-14"><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px"><span class="leading-7 float-left border-t-2 border-l-2 border-solid border-time-red text-5xl py-2 pr-0.5 pl-[0.3125rem] my-0.5 mr-2.5 font-zilla-slab">R</span>aja’a is a displaced 63-year-old widow from south Lebanon who has been praying for a ceasefire deal to end the <a href="https://time.com/7023965/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-gaza/">devastating war</a> between Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah and Israel. To date, the conflict has killed thousands and <a href="https://time.com/7035964/lebanon-displacement-hezbollah-israel/">caused over 1 million Lebanese to flee their homes</a>. As the winter months set in on the Lebanese mountains Raja’a, whose name means hope, grew more desperate. Her phone calls have become more frequent. “Firas my dear, do you think peace is near? I’m cold.”</p><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">The U.S.-brokered truce that Lebanon signed on to and Israel’s war cabinet <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c75lpzq0re1o" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">backed today</a>, is a far cry from any kind of “divine victory” Hezbollah proclaimed after its last major war with Israel in 2006. <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/10/leaked-document-outlines-lebanon-israel-cease-fire-might-be-reached-hours-or-days" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">A leaked draft</a> indicates the group will be required to withdraw its heavy weaponry from south Lebanon, a key Israeli demand. The deal also creates an American-led monitoring and enforcement mechanism to verify that withdrawal, and to prevent Iran from replenishing the group’s historically formidable arsenal.</p><div class="component webflix-player-container block"><div class="webflix-reel" data-partner-key="1d483486-fd58-4aac-bfc2-d711b4ced387" data-property-key="68045ddd-9c78-4646-87d8-3858555b3f5f"></div></div><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">But will U.S. supervision and guarantees bring lasting stability to this <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/13/mapping-one-year-of-cross-border-attacks-between-israel-and-lebanon">volatile Lebanon-Israel border</a>? Or will it prove to be just another intermission between wars as Hezbollah regroups now that its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/30/the-decapitation-of-hezbollah-leaves-iran-weighing-its-options" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">leadership has been decapitated</a>?</p><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px"><strong>Read More: </strong><em><a href="https://time.com/7049289/hezbollah-israel-war/">The Myth of Hezbollah Has Been Shattered</a></em></p><div class="native-ad flex w-full flex-col items-center justify-center"><div id="native-ad-inline-1" class="ad flex min-h-[1px] w-full min-w-[1px] max-w-[100vw] items-center justify-center overflow-hidden bg-transparent text-center group-[.disable-ads]:hidden print:hidden flex " role="complementary" aria-label="Advertisement" data-native="false"></div></div><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">Israel is skeptical. The arrangement that ended the <a href="https://time.com/4398489/lebanon-war-10-years-later-photos/">July 2006 war</a>, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, was largely left unenforced. In its wake, Hezbollah grew exponentially stronger as Iran furnished it with ballistic missiles and precision-guided munitions while U.N. peacekeepers and the Lebanese Armed Forces looked the other way. </p><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">To address these concerns, the U.S. has reportedly provided Israel a <a href="https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-830869">side-letter of assurance</a> that consents to continued aerial reconnaissance over Lebanon, and Tel Aviv’s right to strike at emerging threats if the monitoring and enforcement mechanism fail. Senior Israeli officials have privately told their American counterparts, “We will do less if the mechanism does more, but we will have to do more if it ultimately does less.”</p><div id="inline-ad-1" class="ad flex min-h-[1px] w-full min-w-[1px] max-w-[100vw] items-center justify-center bg-transparent text-center group-[.disable-ads]:hidden print:hidden flex " role="complementary" aria-label="Advertisement" data-native="false"></div><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">But Washington’s assurances and the U.S.-led monitoring mechanism can only do so much without a willing and capable partner in Beirut, a Lebanese government that is ready to work with the international community to expand the state’s sovereignty, enforce border controls, and curb what remains of Hezbollah’s military might.</p><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">The Lebanese army is the most respected institution in an otherwise diverse and sectarian country. But it cannot be the required partner without political directives from a sovereign-minded President. Even if the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14647308">two-year-old presidential vacuum</a> in Lebanon comes to an end, the country cannot possibly work with international donors to undertake the mammoth task of reconstruction without a reformist government—one that no longer consents to Hezbollah’s brandishing of <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/24/middleeast/hezbollah-weapons-visuals-intl-dg/index.html">Iranian arms</a> under the rubric of resistance to Israel. </p><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">Amos Hochstein, the charismatic U.S. envoy leading the ceasefire talks, has largely shied away from Lebanon’s archaic internal affairs and the question of the day after. Much more is required, not only to reboot the stalled political process in Beirut, but also to prevent Lebanon from backsliding into civil strife, as it did following the last major Hezbollah-Israel war. In 2008, the militant group <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/world/middleeast/10lebanon.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">launched a military assault</a> against a Lebanese government that tried to limit its power.</p><div id="inline-ad-2" class="ad flex min-h-[1px] w-full min-w-[1px] max-w-[100vw] items-center justify-center bg-transparent text-center group-[.disable-ads]:hidden print:hidden flex " role="complementary" aria-label="Advertisement" data-native="false"></div><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">Lebanon is a country that will need active management to achieve any sustained progress. Before Washington is fully consumed by the <a href="https://time.com/7173338/donald-trump-wins-election-2024/">inauguration of Donald Trump</a> in January, Hochstein would do well to enlist the help of France and Saudi Arabia, U.S. partners who have traditionally wielded significant influence in Lebanon and who have a long track record of mediating between the bickering Lebanese parties.</p><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">France has been grudgingly watching from the sidelines as Hochstein asserted American leadership at the expense of French diplomacy over its former protectorate. But in the days ahead, as the guns finally fall silent, Hochstein should support Paris and encourage it to resume talks with the disparate Lebanese factions to end years of political gridlock that have crippled state institutions and left the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3d0177be-4227-471e-bb75-99ebcd105566" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">economy in tatters</a>.</p><div class="video-wrapper"><div class="w-full bg-time-black aspect-video"><div id="jwplayer-:R116pjt9btttsba:"></div></div></div><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">The Saudis, who hosted and facilitated the talks that ended the 15-year Lebanese civil war in 1990, have also been hands-off, foregoing a role in Lebanon to focus on their country’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-doubling-down-economic-transformation-plan-finance-minister-says-2024-10-30/">unprecedented economic and social transformation</a>. But they too now have an interest in stepping up, realizing that progress on their vision of regional integration and <a href="https://time.com/5890151/saudi-arabia-israel-abraham-accords/">normalization with Israel</a> will depend on durable ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza.</p><div id="inline-ad-3" class="ad flex min-h-[1px] w-full min-w-[1px] max-w-[100vw] items-center justify-center bg-transparent text-center group-[.disable-ads]:hidden print:hidden flex " role="complementary" aria-label="Advertisement" data-native="false"></div><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">Both the Saudis and the French maintain a pragmatic, if still largely adversarial, relationship with Iran. This will matter for the politics surrounding a diminished, but still significant <a href="https://time.com/6692282/iran-doesnt-have-proxies/">Iranian role in Lebanon and the region</a>.</p><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">When French President Emanuel Macron visits Saudi Arabia on a <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/2024/11/15/french-president-emmanuel-macron-to-visit-saudi-arabia-in-december/">landmark state visit in early December</a>, he should propose co-hosting a post-war national dialogue of Lebanese leaders under American, French, and Saudi patronage to reboot Beirut’s stalled politics, and to set clear conditions for the billions of U.S. dollars needed for reconstruction. And as Trump returns to office next year, appointing a capable successor to Hochstein to work with all the parties should be a foreign policy priority.</p><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">The Italian political philosopher Antonio Gramsci famously warned that a great variety of morbid symptoms appear in the interregnum that occurs when the old is dying and the new cannot yet be born. We must beware of what might follow a much-anticipated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire if Beirut is left unattended. </p><p class="self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px">If the millions like Raja’a, a second mother to me, return to shattered villages with no prospect of rebuilding and little hope of a dignified existence, Hochstein’s ceasefire won’t last long.</p></div></article><div class="mt-11 flex w-full max-w-article-body-centered flex-col gap-8 px-4 lg:max-w-article-body lg:pl-[6.5rem] lg:pr-14"><div class="inline-article-recirc md:relative"><h2 class="left-0 top-[-0.813rem] bg-white pb-1 text-center font-roboto-condensed text-xl font-bold uppercase md:absolute md:pr-2.5">More Must-Reads from TIME</h2><ul class="list-outside list-disc border-t border-t-time-gray-7 pl-5 pt-2 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-relaxed tracking-0.5px md:pt-6"><li><span>Where </span><a href="https://time.com/7178656/trump-tiktok-vaccines-crypto/?utm_source=roundup&utm_campaign=20230202" class="font-bold">Trump 2.0 </a><span>Will Differ From 1.0</span></li><li><span>How </span><a href="https://time.com/7177802/elon-musk-donald-trump-2024-election/?utm_source=roundup&utm_campaign=20230202" class="font-bold">Elon Musk </a><span>Became a Kingmaker</span></li><li><span>The Power—And Limits—of </span><a href="https://time.com/7178392/peer-support-mental-health/?utm_source=roundup&utm_campaign=20230202" class="font-bold">Peer Support</a></li><li><span>The </span><a href="https://time.com/collection/must-read-books-2024/?utm_source=roundup&utm_campaign=20230202" class="font-bold">100 Must-Read Books </a><span>of 2024</span></li><li><span>Column: If </span><a href="https://time.com/7178402/hope-instead-of-cynicism-essay/?utm_source=roundup&utm_campaign=20230202" class="font-bold">Optimism </a><span>Feels Ridiculous Now, Try Hope</span></li><li><span>The Future of </span><a href="https://time.com/7178427/climate-trade-policy-baku-cop29/?utm_source=roundup&utm_campaign=20230202" class="font-bold">Climate Action </a><span>Is Trade Policy</span></li><li><span>FX’s </span><a href="https://time.com/7174152/say-nothing-review-fx/?utm_source=roundup&utm_campaign=20230202" class="font-bold">Say Nothing Is the Must-Watch </a><span>Political Thriller of 2024</span></li><li><a href="https://time.com/7174932/merle-bombardieri-profile-baby-decision-book/?utm_source=roundup&utm_campaign=20230202" class="font-bold">Merle Bombardieri </a><span>Is Helping People Make the Baby Decision</span></li></ul></div><div><p class="mx-auto w-full self-baseline text-center font-roboto-condensed text-sm font-bold uppercase leading-7 tracking-[0.25px] pb-3">Contact us at <a href="mailto:letters@time.com" class="font-normal">letters@time.com</a></p><div class="mx-auto w-full pb-4 pt-0"><div class="mx-auto max-w-[500px] pl-0 text-center font-zilla-slab text-base italic leading-5 text-time-gray-4"><a href="https://www.time.com/ideas">TIME Ideas</a> hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture. 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Maksad\"}],\"\",\"\"]}]]]}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"inline-block\",\"children\":[\"$\",\"time\",null,{\"dateTime\":\"2024-11-26T21:09:49.000Z\",\"children\":\"November 26, 2024 4:09 PM EST\"}]}]]}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"font-zilla-slab text-sm italic leading-6 tracking-[0.018125em] text-time-black\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"div\",\"Firas Maksad\",{\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"Firas Maksad is a senior fellow and senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, a think tank in Washington D.C.\"}}]]}]]}]]}]]}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"id\":\"article-body-main\",\"className\":\"flex w-full flex-col gap-7 [\u0026\u003e*:not(.inline-image)]:px-4 [\u0026\u003e*:not(.inline-image)]:lg:pl-[6.5rem] [\u0026\u003e*:not(.inline-image)]:lg:pr-14 [\u0026\u003e.inline-image]:sm:px-4 [\u0026\u003e.inline-image]:lg:pl-[6.5rem] [\u0026\u003e.inline-image]:lg:pr-14\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"\u003cspan class=\\\"leading-7 float-left border-t-2 border-l-2 border-solid border-time-red text-5xl py-2 pr-0.5 pl-[0.3125rem] my-0.5 mr-2.5 font-zilla-slab\\\"\u003eR\u003c/span\u003eaja’a is a displaced 63-year-old widow from south Lebanon who has been praying for a ceasefire deal to end the \u003ca href=\\\"https://time.com/7023965/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-gaza/\\\"\u003edevastating war\u003c/a\u003e between Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah and Israel. To date, the conflict has killed thousands and \u003ca href=\\\"https://time.com/7035964/lebanon-displacement-hezbollah-israel/\\\"\u003ecaused over 1 million Lebanese to flee their homes\u003c/a\u003e. As the winter months set in on the Lebanese mountains Raja’a, whose name means hope, grew more desperate. Her phone calls have become more frequent. “Firas my dear, do you think peace is near? I’m cold.”\"}}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"The U.S.-brokered truce that Lebanon signed on to and Israel’s war cabinet \u003ca href=\\\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c75lpzq0re1o\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noreferrer noopener\\\"\u003ebacked today\u003c/a\u003e, is a far cry from any kind of “divine victory” Hezbollah proclaimed after its last major war with Israel in 2006. \u003ca href=\\\"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/10/leaked-document-outlines-lebanon-israel-cease-fire-might-be-reached-hours-or-days\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noreferrer noopener\\\"\u003eA leaked draft\u003c/a\u003e indicates the group will be required to withdraw its heavy weaponry from south Lebanon, a key Israeli demand. The deal also creates an American-led monitoring and enforcement mechanism to verify that withdrawal, and to prevent Iran from replenishing the group’s historically formidable arsenal.\"}}],[\"$\",\"$L3f\",\"block-webflix-player-2\",{\"block\":{\"name\":\"webflix-player\"},\"index\":2}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"But will U.S. supervision and guarantees bring lasting stability to this \u003ca href=\\\"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/13/mapping-one-year-of-cross-border-attacks-between-israel-and-lebanon\\\"\u003evolatile Lebanon-Israel border\u003c/a\u003e? Or will it prove to be just another intermission between wars as Hezbollah regroups now that its \u003ca href=\\\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/30/the-decapitation-of-hezbollah-leaves-iran-weighing-its-options\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noreferrer noopener\\\"\u003eleadership has been decapitated\u003c/a\u003e?\"}}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"\u003cstrong\u003eRead More: \u003c/strong\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003ca href=\\\"https://time.com/7049289/hezbollah-israel-war/\\\"\u003eThe Myth of Hezbollah Has Been Shattered\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\"}}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"native-ad flex w-full flex-col items-center justify-center\",\"children\":[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"id\":\"native-ad-inline-1\",\"className\":\"ad flex min-h-[1px] w-full min-w-[1px] max-w-[100vw] items-center justify-center overflow-hidden bg-transparent text-center group-[.disable-ads]:hidden print:hidden flex \",\"role\":\"complementary\",\"aria-label\":\"Advertisement\",\"data-native\":false}]}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"Israel is skeptical. The arrangement that ended the \u003ca href=\\\"https://time.com/4398489/lebanon-war-10-years-later-photos/\\\"\u003eJuly 2006 war\u003c/a\u003e, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, was largely left unenforced. In its wake, Hezbollah grew exponentially stronger as Iran furnished it with ballistic missiles and precision-guided munitions while U.N. peacekeepers and the Lebanese Armed Forces looked the other way. \"}}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"To address these concerns, the U.S. has reportedly provided Israel a \u003ca href=\\\"https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-830869\\\"\u003eside-letter of assurance\u003c/a\u003e that consents to continued aerial reconnaissance over Lebanon, and Tel Aviv’s right to strike at emerging threats if the monitoring and enforcement mechanism fail. Senior Israeli officials have privately told their American counterparts, “We will do less if the mechanism does more, but we will have to do more if it ultimately does less.”\"}}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"id\":\"inline-ad-1\",\"className\":\"ad flex min-h-[1px] w-full min-w-[1px] max-w-[100vw] items-center justify-center bg-transparent text-center group-[.disable-ads]:hidden print:hidden flex \",\"role\":\"complementary\",\"aria-label\":\"Advertisement\",\"data-native\":false}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"But Washington’s assurances and the U.S.-led monitoring mechanism can only do so much without a willing and capable partner in Beirut, a Lebanese government that is ready to work with the international community to expand the state’s sovereignty, enforce border controls, and curb what remains of Hezbollah’s military might.\"}}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"The Lebanese army is the most respected institution in an otherwise diverse and sectarian country. But it cannot be the required partner without political directives from a sovereign-minded President. Even if the \u003ca href=\\\"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14647308\\\"\u003etwo-year-old presidential vacuum\u003c/a\u003e in Lebanon comes to an end, the country cannot possibly work with international donors to undertake the mammoth task of reconstruction without a reformist government—one that no longer consents to Hezbollah’s brandishing of \u003ca href=\\\"https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/24/middleeast/hezbollah-weapons-visuals-intl-dg/index.html\\\"\u003eIranian arms\u003c/a\u003e under the rubric of resistance to Israel. \"}}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"Amos Hochstein, the charismatic U.S. envoy leading the ceasefire talks, has largely shied away from Lebanon’s archaic internal affairs and the question of the day after. Much more is required, not only to reboot the stalled political process in Beirut, but also to prevent Lebanon from backsliding into civil strife, as it did following the last major Hezbollah-Israel war. In 2008, the militant group\u0026nbsp;\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/world/middleeast/10lebanon.html\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noreferrer noopener\\\"\u003elaunched a military assault\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;against a Lebanese government that tried to limit its power.\"}}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"id\":\"inline-ad-2\",\"className\":\"ad flex min-h-[1px] w-full min-w-[1px] max-w-[100vw] items-center justify-center bg-transparent text-center group-[.disable-ads]:hidden print:hidden flex \",\"role\":\"complementary\",\"aria-label\":\"Advertisement\",\"data-native\":false}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"Lebanon is a country that will need active management to achieve any sustained progress. Before Washington is fully consumed by the \u003ca href=\\\"https://time.com/7173338/donald-trump-wins-election-2024/\\\"\u003einauguration of Donald Trump\u003c/a\u003e in January, Hochstein would do well to enlist the help of France and Saudi Arabia, U.S. partners who have traditionally wielded significant influence in Lebanon and who have a long track record of mediating between the bickering Lebanese parties.\"}}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"France has been grudgingly watching from the sidelines as Hochstein asserted American leadership at the expense of French diplomacy over its former protectorate. But in the days ahead, as the guns finally fall silent, Hochstein should support Paris and encourage it to resume talks with the disparate Lebanese factions to end years of political gridlock that have crippled state institutions and left the\u0026nbsp;\u003ca href=\\\"https://www.ft.com/content/3d0177be-4227-471e-bb75-99ebcd105566\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noreferrer noopener\\\"\u003eeconomy in tatters\u003c/a\u003e.\"}}],[\"$\",\"$L3d\",\"block-gutenberg-custom-blocks/video-jw-15\",{\"block\":{\"__typename\":\"ContentBlock\",\"innerBlocks\":[],\"attributes\":[{\"__typename\":\"ContentBlockAttribute\",\"name\":\"mediaId\",\"value\":\"QgU9Pyjj\"},{\"__typename\":\"ContentBlockAttribute\",\"name\":\"autostart\",\"value\":\"false\"}],\"innerHTML\":\"[video id=QgU9Pyjj]\",\"name\":\"gutenberg-custom-blocks/video-jw\",\"tagName\":\"div\"},\"index\":15,\"mediaId\":\"QgU9Pyjj\",\"autostart\":false}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"The Saudis, who hosted and facilitated the talks that ended the 15-year Lebanese civil war in 1990, have also been hands-off, foregoing a role in Lebanon to focus on their country’s \u003ca href=\\\"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-doubling-down-economic-transformation-plan-finance-minister-says-2024-10-30/\\\"\u003eunprecedented economic and social transformation\u003c/a\u003e. But they too now have an interest in stepping up, realizing that progress on their vision of regional integration and \u003ca href=\\\"https://time.com/5890151/saudi-arabia-israel-abraham-accords/\\\"\u003enormalization with Israel\u003c/a\u003e will depend on durable ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza.\"}}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"id\":\"inline-ad-3\",\"className\":\"ad flex min-h-[1px] w-full min-w-[1px] max-w-[100vw] items-center justify-center bg-transparent text-center group-[.disable-ads]:hidden print:hidden flex \",\"role\":\"complementary\",\"aria-label\":\"Advertisement\",\"data-native\":false}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"Both the Saudis and the French maintain a pragmatic, if still largely adversarial, relationship with Iran. This will matter for the politics surrounding a diminished, but still significant \u003ca href=\\\"https://time.com/6692282/iran-doesnt-have-proxies/\\\"\u003eIranian role in Lebanon and the region\u003c/a\u003e.\"}}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"When French President Emanuel Macron visits Saudi Arabia on a \u003ca href=\\\"https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/2024/11/15/french-president-emmanuel-macron-to-visit-saudi-arabia-in-december/\\\"\u003elandmark state visit in early December\u003c/a\u003e, he should propose co-hosting a post-war national dialogue of Lebanese leaders under American, French, and Saudi patronage to reboot Beirut’s stalled politics, and to set clear conditions for the billions of U.S. dollars needed for reconstruction. And as Trump returns to office next year, appointing a capable successor to Hochstein to work with all the parties should be a foreign policy priority.\"}}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"The Italian political philosopher Antonio Gramsci famously warned that a great variety of morbid symptoms appear in the interregnum that occurs when the old is dying and the new cannot yet be born. We must beware of what might follow a much-anticipated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire if Beirut is left unattended.\u0026nbsp;\"}}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"self-baseline px-0 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-7 tracking-0.5px\",\"dangerouslySetInnerHTML\":{\"__html\":\"If the millions like Raja’a, a second mother to me, return to shattered villages with no prospect of rebuilding and little hope of a dignified existence, Hochstein’s ceasefire won’t last long.\"}}]]}]]}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"mt-11 flex w-full max-w-article-body-centered flex-col gap-8 px-4 lg:max-w-article-body lg:pl-[6.5rem] lg:pr-14\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"inline-article-recirc md:relative\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"h2\",null,{\"className\":\"left-0 top-[-0.813rem] bg-white pb-1 text-center font-roboto-condensed text-xl font-bold uppercase md:absolute md:pr-2.5\",\"children\":\"More Must-Reads from TIME\"}],[\"$\",\"ul\",null,{\"className\":\"list-outside list-disc border-t border-t-time-gray-7 pl-5 pt-2 font-pt-serif text-17px leading-relaxed tracking-0.5px md:pt-6\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"li\",\"recirc_0\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_0\",{\"children\":\"Where \"}],[\"$\",\"a\",\"recirc-link_1\",{\"href\":\"https://time.com/7178656/trump-tiktok-vaccines-crypto/?utm_source=roundup\u0026utm_campaign=20230202\",\"className\":\"font-bold\",\"children\":\"Trump 2.0 \"}],[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_2\",{\"children\":\"Will Differ From 1.0\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"li\",\"recirc_1\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_0\",{\"children\":\"How \"}],[\"$\",\"a\",\"recirc-link_1\",{\"href\":\"https://time.com/7177802/elon-musk-donald-trump-2024-election/?utm_source=roundup\u0026utm_campaign=20230202\",\"className\":\"font-bold\",\"children\":\"Elon Musk \"}],[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_2\",{\"children\":\"Became a Kingmaker\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"li\",\"recirc_2\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_0\",{\"children\":\"The Power—And Limits—of \"}],[\"$\",\"a\",\"recirc-link_1\",{\"href\":\"https://time.com/7178392/peer-support-mental-health/?utm_source=roundup\u0026utm_campaign=20230202\",\"className\":\"font-bold\",\"children\":\"Peer Support\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"li\",\"recirc_3\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_0\",{\"children\":\"The \"}],[\"$\",\"a\",\"recirc-link_1\",{\"href\":\"https://time.com/collection/must-read-books-2024/?utm_source=roundup\u0026utm_campaign=20230202\",\"className\":\"font-bold\",\"children\":\"100 Must-Read Books \"}],[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_2\",{\"children\":\"of 2024\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"li\",\"recirc_4\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_0\",{\"children\":\"Column: If \"}],[\"$\",\"a\",\"recirc-link_1\",{\"href\":\"https://time.com/7178402/hope-instead-of-cynicism-essay/?utm_source=roundup\u0026utm_campaign=20230202\",\"className\":\"font-bold\",\"children\":\"Optimism \"}],[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_2\",{\"children\":\"Feels Ridiculous Now, Try Hope\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"li\",\"recirc_5\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_0\",{\"children\":\"The Future of \"}],[\"$\",\"a\",\"recirc-link_1\",{\"href\":\"https://time.com/7178427/climate-trade-policy-baku-cop29/?utm_source=roundup\u0026utm_campaign=20230202\",\"className\":\"font-bold\",\"children\":\"Climate Action \"}],[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_2\",{\"children\":\"Is Trade Policy\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"li\",\"recirc_6\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_0\",{\"children\":\"FX’s \"}],[\"$\",\"a\",\"recirc-link_1\",{\"href\":\"https://time.com/7174152/say-nothing-review-fx/?utm_source=roundup\u0026utm_campaign=20230202\",\"className\":\"font-bold\",\"children\":\"Say Nothing Is the Must-Watch \"}],[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_2\",{\"children\":\"Political Thriller of 2024\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"li\",\"recirc_7\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"a\",\"recirc-link_0\",{\"href\":\"https://time.com/7174932/merle-bombardieri-profile-baby-decision-book/?utm_source=roundup\u0026utm_campaign=20230202\",\"className\":\"font-bold\",\"children\":\"Merle Bombardieri \"}],[\"$\",\"span\",\"recirc-text_1\",{\"children\":\"Is Helping People Make the Baby Decision\"}]]}]]}]]}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"className\":\"mx-auto w-full self-baseline text-center font-roboto-condensed text-sm font-bold uppercase leading-7 tracking-[0.25px] pb-3\",\"children\":[\"Contact us at\",\" \",[\"$\",\"a\",null,{\"href\":\"mailto:letters@time.com\",\"className\":\"font-normal\",\"children\":\"letters@time.com\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"mx-auto w-full pb-4 pt-0\",\"children\":[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"mx-auto max-w-[500px] pl-0 text-center font-zilla-slab text-base italic leading-5 text-time-gray-4\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"a\",null,{\"href\":\"https://www.time.com/ideas\",\"children\":\"TIME Ideas\"}],\" hosts the world's leading voices, providing commentary on events in news, society, and culture. 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