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Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://prbblog.org/?feed=comments-rss2" title="The latest comments to all posts in RSS">Comments <abbr title="Really Simple Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://wordpress.org/" title="Powered by WordPress, state-of-the-art semantic personal publishing platform.">WordPress.org</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="middle"> <div class="post" id="post-18"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://prbblog.org/?p=18" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link: Is Africa Being Eaten by the Malthusian Dragon?">Is Africa Being Eaten by the Malthusian Dragon?</a></h2> <p class="postmetadata"><small>October 16th, 2008 Charlie Teller </small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> | </p> <div> <p><em>by Charles Teller, Bixby Visiting Scholar</em></p> <p>Malthus predicted over 200 years ago that population growth would outrun food production and cause much misery in the world, and we’ve been struggling with this draconian “dragon” ever since. Since the 1990s, this Malthusian dragon聽has been聽beaten back by positive socio-economic, political, health, and demographic changes in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. But now, in the first decade of the 21st century, we are聽confronted by menacing global energy, financial, and food crises. What are聽the effects on Africa?</p> <p>The answer may be: it depends on where, when and who! Let’s not generalize about SSA, but look at the distinct sub-regions, the diversity of individual countries, and vulnerable groups within countries.聽Are these crises聽not also a struggle between global forces and local resilience?</p> <p>As a sociologist and demographer, I’ve been partnering in demographic, health, food, and nutrition assessments in聽SSA聽over the last 25 years. More recently, I have lived in Ethiopia, where the UN’s Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Assistance now proclaims is聽”<a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://us.oneworld.net/article/357242-ethiopia-facing-worlds-most-urgent-food-crisis">the world’s most urgent food crisis</a>” with 12 million facing food shortages. But even with political and climate changes, Ethiopia has improved its early warning systems and resilience to excess聽mortality due to food insecurity and disease since the聽disastrous 1984-5 famine. Rural chronic malnutrition has declined from 64 percent聽to 48 percent, and child mortality declined by one-third!</p> <p>Now, what should we be measuring on <a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.fao.org/getinvolved/worldfoodday/en/">World Food Day</a>? Is it famine, hunger, undernourishment, under-nutrition, or malnutrition?聽International聽agencies - WHO, FAO, World Food Program, UNICEF, World Bank -聽can’t even agree. A compromise may be seen in the new <a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.ifpri.org/">Global Hunger Index</a>聽which combines dietary intake, underweight and under-five mortality, and identifies 33 world “hot spots”.</p> <p>And on the population side, African research on poverty, hunger, and the demographic transition has demonstrated a need to look beyond rapid population growth and large families as the overarching factors, and to incorporate other factors such as geographic and age distribution, land density and environment, migration and urbanization, family and marriage, as well as socio-economic, cultural, and gender disparities.</p> <p>Here are just a few of the contradictory population-food/nutrition facts in the last 15 years in SSA:</p> <ul> <li><u><a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.fao.org/GIEWS/english/index.htm">Population Growth Rates Slower, Fertility Declining, But Hunger Increased:</a></u> While growth rates have been slowing since 1990, most of the increase in world under-nourishment has been in SSA, where the absolute number with inadequate dietary intake increased from 169 to 212 million people.</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/stuntingssa.aspx/">Mortality is Lower, but Malnutrition Continues</a>: Infant and under-five mortality has declined significantly from聽1990 to 2005 and inadequate dietary intake and underweight incidence also declined somewhat; but the crucial biometric of persistent and chronic stunting has not. Have those saved from dying joined the ranks of the stunted?</li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/foodsecurityeastafrica.aspx">Rurual Land Pressure and Urbanization Changes Food Needs</a>: Increasing population pressure, resource conflict, and environmental degradation has forced many rural families to diversify, migrate, and/or seek off-farm employment. This can be a “safety valve” for social change and longer life expectancy, but also results in net buyers of staple foods and modified diets.</li> </ul> <p>As <a target="_blank" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12381162">The Economist magazine just wrote about SSA last week聽</a>, the latest trend is “cheeringly positive,” with signs of hope, economic development, and political stability. Some African countries are much less affected by internationally traded food stuffs (e.g., Ghana), many farmers are net producers, and some drought-prone countries have decreased their stunting (e.g., Ethiopia, Tanzania), but others remain mired as failed states (e.g., Somalia and DRC).</p> <p>So, let’s look more carefully at the long-term trends and the recent numbers: what do they mean, country by country, and identify both the more vulnerable to the recent crises and the more resilient to the longer-term structural changes. How聽well are certain countries doing up against the Malthusian dragon? Do you agree that it’s better to contextualize the issue on a country-by country basis over time rather聽than聽 generalizing about the whole African continent at this critical聽time?</p> <br/> <p> <small> <span> You can follow any responses to this entry through the</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://prbblog.org/?feed=rss2&p=18">RSS 2.0</a> <span>feed.</span> <span>You can </span><a href="#respond">leave a response</a>, <span>or</span> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://prbblog.org/wp-trackback.php?p=18" rel="trackback">trackback</a> <span>from your own site.</span> </span></small> </p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=18&title=Is Africa Being Eaten by the Malthusian Dragon?" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div>   <div class="comments"><h3>Leave a Reply</h3></div> <form action="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://prbblog.org/wp-comments-post.php" method="post" id="commentform"> <p><input type="text" name="author" id="author" value="" size="22" tabindex="1"/> <label for="author"><small>Name (required)</small></label></p> <p><input type="text" name="email" id="email" value="" size="22" tabindex="2"/> <label for="email"><small>Mail (will not be published) (required)</small></label></p> <p><input type="text" name="url" id="url" value="" size="22" tabindex="3"/> <label for="url"><small>Website</small></label></p>  <p><textarea name="comment" id="comment" cols="60%" rows="10" tabindex="4"></textarea></p> <p><input name="submit" type="submit" id="submit" tabindex="5" value="Submit Comment"/> <input type="hidden" name="comment_post_ID" value="18"/> </p> </form> <div class="alignleft">« <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://prbblog.org/?p=16">Four Steps to Fewer Poor People</a></div> <div class="alignright"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://prbblog.org/?p=21">Fertile Fringes: Population Growth at Protected-Area Edges</a> »</div> </div> </td></tr></table></center>  <br/><br/> <div align="center"> <div align="center" id="ftr"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer2.gif" width="3" height="23" align="right"/><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer1.gif" width="3" height="23" align="left"/><span class="footertext">Services: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/Home/EmailSignup.aspx">Get E-Mail News</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/Join.aspx">Join/Renew Membership</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/Donate.aspx">Donate</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/Bookstore.aspx">Bookstore</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/Home/Contact.aspx">Contact</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/SpanishContent.aspx">Español</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/FrenchContent.aspx">Français</a></span></div> <span class="footer2text"><b>Copyright 2007, Population Reference Bureau.</b> All rights reserved. • <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/http://www.prb.org/Home/Privacy.aspx">Privacy Policy</a></span><br/> <span class="footer2text">1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW • Suite 520 • Washington, DC 20009-5728 • USA <br/> <b>Phone:</b> 800-877-9881 • <b>Fax:</b> 202-328-3937 • <b>E-mail:</b> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081126214042/mailto:popref@prb.org">popref@prb.org</a></span><br/> </div>  </div> </body> </html>

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Behind the Numbers: 聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽 The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment » Blog Archive » Is Africa Being Eaten by the Malthusian Dragon?