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熨平原材料涨价风险 上市公司纷纷成“套粉”-我的钢铁网
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style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>缆企业相关负责人对中国证券报记者说。他这些忧虑的背后是近期全球大宗商品价格迅速攀升的市场行情。</p> <p>为规避近期原材料成本大幅波动风险，一些以大宗商品作为主要原材料的企业纷纷宣布上调产品价格。也有一些企业另辟蹊径，以格力电器、爱仕达、电工合金为代表的多家上市公司纷纷宣布拟开展期货套期保值业务。然而，套期保值是一把“双刃剑”，基差变化对套期保值的最终效果至关重要，也是主要的风险因素。</p> <p><strong>“金融市场最靓的仔”</strong></p> <p>牛年伊始，大宗商品演绎了一轮高潮迭起的大戏：“双主角”布伦特原油、LME期铜同台争艳，价格不断刷新高点，反映全球大宗商品走势的CRB指数也创下2018年10月以来新高。国内期货市场亦应声上涨，沪铜、沪<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>、沪<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/nie/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>镍</a>、沪<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>、原油等期货纷纷创下近年来新高。大宗商品因靓丽的行情表现，也被网友戏称为“金融市场最靓的仔”。</p> <p>CRB指数于2020年4月触底，此后展开强势反弹。从时间维度方面来看，这正是多国为应对疫情冲击大规模提供货币供应量的时期。“全球超额流动性助推资金涌入资本市场，以及由于美联储史无前例的货币超发对美元的打击是本轮大宗商品大涨的主因。”中大期货副总经理、首席经济学家景川表示。</p> <p>大宗商品上涨也有自身的因素。全球经济缓慢复苏，推动大宗商品真实需求恢复。然而，供应端却未能得到及时修复。“大宗商品处于产业链上游，属于高投入行业，疫情不仅令需求端塌陷，同时也使得开采行业资金链紧张，企业缩减资本支出，进而影响长期供给。”美尔雅期货高级能化分析师黎磊表示。</p> <p>在<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----02-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>有色金属</a>行情多头盛世之下，产业链企业则是“冰火两重天”。通常而言，大宗商品涨价将直接利好上游开采企业，以及拥有原料库存的下游企业，但对于多数下游生产、加工企业而言，确是实实在在的压力。</p> <p>江铜集团金瑞期货总经理侯心强表示：“对于实体企业而言，上游原材料价格上涨，将导致终端消费企业成本大幅上升。”</p> <p>中国证券报记者了解到，今年春节期间，在就地过年的号召下，国内有色下游加工企业提前复工。然而，在二季度传统旺季前，多数下游企业的原料备货尚未完全采购到位。此时，面对铜等有色金属价格快速上涨带来的原料成本猛涨，以及在部分企业下游产品议价能力不足的情况下，原材料价格上涨无疑将削弱企业的盈利能力，给企业经营带来不利影响。</p> <p>对于加工型企业而言，原料大涨对企业平稳经营产生了一定的冲击。以铜加工企业为例，作为典型的双向敞口企业，其在采购<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>电解铜</a>时，担心<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>出现上涨，而在销售含铜制品时，又担心铜价下跌，且生产与销售之间还存在时间周期的问题。同时，这类企业的原料和产品库存量管理对其经营也很关键。</p> <p>“目前，原料价格大幅上涨且波动加剧，甚至出现了阶段性累库，放大了加工企业的价格风险。同时，保值资金投入亦大幅上升，给企业风险管理造成了巨大的压力。”侯心强表示。</p> <p><strong>上市公司玩转套保</strong></p> <p>中国家用电器协会执行理事长姜风指出，大家电产品原材料成本占比超过七成，钢材、铜等多种原材料价格大涨令企业承压。</p> <p>也有部分企业却能淡定地面对原料涨价。“部分企业参与套期保值对冲获得较好的保值避险效果。”国信期货研究咨询部主管顾冯达表示。</p> <p>以铜材加工企业套期保值为例，铜材企业的基本业务流程一般为按照市场价采购电解铜或<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----020105-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>废铜</a>，经过一定加工周期的加工生产出铜材，然后以“市场价+加工费”进行销售，其采购原料价格与销售产品价格都与沪铜期货高度相关。</p> <p>“对于企业而言，在中间环节有其核心利润，比如加工费、升贴水、贸易价差等，因此其核心利润=加工费-加工成本。理论上，若能锁定加工利润，则铜价无论在50000元/吨，还是60000元/吨，对该铜材加工企业来说同样可以实现稳定盈利。”顾冯达表示。</p> <p>从套期保值基本策略上看，这类企业是利用保值工具的调频功能，将采购和销售定价方式、时间调整为一致，可以达到保值目的。通俗地说，也就是现货按照什么样的定价方式进行购进，就按照同样的方式在期货市场卖出，现货按照什么样的定价方式进行销售，就按照同样的方式在期货市场买入，现货的买入与卖出实现对冲，期货的买入与卖出也实现对冲。</p> <p>据中国证券报记者不完全统计，截至3月16日，今年以来共有逾40家上市公司陆续发布带有“套期保值业务”字眼的相关公告（不含外汇套期保值）。</p> <p>3月11日，爱仕达发布关于开展期货套期保值业务的公告称，公司目前的年度铝锭用量和<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢</a>用量采购成本数额较大，有必要主动采取措施，积极降低对原材料铝锭和不锈钢的采购风险，保证日常生产的平稳、有序进行，计划开展铝锭期货套期保值业务和<a href='https://bxg.m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>不锈钢期货</a>套期保值业务。</p> <p>格力电器近期在投资者互动平台也表示，公司对大宗原材料会做适量库存储备。同时，公司结合自身规模优势和产业链议价能力，运用集中采购、铜铝等物资套期保值等方式，对冲原材料价格波动风险。</p> <p>三花智控也在投资者互动平台上表示，通过采用铜价联动的定价机制及对大宗原材料进行套期保值操作等来规避原材料波动风险。此外，近期公开套期保值计划的还有锡业股份、金信诺、海亮股份、兴业矿业、汉缆股份等上市公司。</p> <p><strong>套保是一把“双刃剑”</strong></p> <p>然而，套期保值也是一把“双刃剑”，用不好甚至会使企业陷入“利润陷阱”。以生产菜籽油类产品为主的上市公司道道全为例，因2020年套期保值产生平仓亏损，其业绩预告称当年净利润同比大幅下滑（预计下降131.05%至146.57%）。道道全曾表示：“公司虽几次调整产品销售价格，但仍未完全抵消原材料价格上行对公司当期利润的影响。”为此，公司一直进行套期保值，但因对原材料市场单边上行的行情判断有所偏差，导致套期保值产生平仓亏损。此外，还有从事家用纺织品为主的孚日股份，去年上半年在开展棉花期货套期保值过程中，因棉花期货价格大幅波动导致损失逾2亿元。</p> <p>深入分析多家上市公司以往的套期保值成绩单发现，基差变化对套期保值的最终效果至关重要，也是主要的风险因素。所谓基差是指现货价格与期货价格的差值。</p> <p>伴随着期货市场的不断发展、演进，参与套期保值的企业逐渐探索出了参与期货风险管理更深入的优化方向——基差交易。</p> <p>“一些企业开始强调控制价格风险在可接受范围，并不是完全消灭价格波动，其往往能通过行业研究和基差的变动获取额外的利润。”顾冯达表示。</p> <p>基差交易主要是结合期现套期保值业务来开展的，模式较为稳健，其核心不在于能否实现期货端的盈利，而在于能否通过寻找基差方面的变化或者预期基差的变化来谋取利润，或者通过发现期货市场与现货市场之间的价格变动来寻找套期保值机会。</p> <p>“套期保值企业若利用好期现价差的一般变化规律，则可以获得更好的保值效果。”顾冯达表示，以某铜企希望锁定生产成本参与期货买入保值操作为例，选择基差走弱阶段介入，将获得更好的整体盈利；而选择基差走强阶段介入，则将面临更多风险。当然关于基差交易与优化应建立在保值对冲的整体思路之下。</p> <p>需要注意的是，由于市场环境的变化和企业的需求差别，在不完全的企业信息下难以给出个性化的保值操作。顾冯达提示，在国内沪铜期货波动性放大的背景下，建议铜加工企业客户加强保值操作，以应对铜价大幅波动风险。若客户有意参与实际保值，可与期货公司相关研究部门和风险管理子公司保持沟通，以提供具有针对性的套期保值方案与风险管理服务。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 </br> 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：本文来源于网络，版权归原作者所有，且仅代表原作者观点，转载并不意味着Mysteel赞同其观点，或证明其内容的真实性、完整性与准确性，本文所载信息仅供参考，不作为直接决策建议。转载仅为学习与交流之目的，如无意中侵犯您的合法权益，请及时与Mysteel 021-26093490联系与处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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