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<!doctype html> <html data-n-head-ssr lang="ja" data-n-head="%7B%22lang%22:%7B%22ssr%22:%22ja%22%7D%7D"> <head > <title>「自由貿易は保護貿易よりも経済が潤う」と信じる人が知って驚くこと｜Sunmark Web</title><meta data-n-head="ssr" charset="utf-8"><meta data-n-head="ssr" name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"><meta data-n-head="ssr" http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="description" name="description" content="　政府が貿易に対して原則として制限を設けない「自由貿易」と逆に国内産業を守るために制限を設ける「保護貿易」を比べて、自由貿易によって競争を促したほうが経済は潤うという主張がなされることがあります。　スペイン・セビリア大学応用経済学教授であるフアン・トーレス・ロペス氏はそこに異論を唱えます。著書『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』より、お届けします。『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』自由な貿易など存在しない。それは便利なフィクション　国際貿易の分野で最も名高い現代経済学者の1人であり、この分野の研究でスウェーデ"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="og:site_name" property="og:site_name" content="Sunmark Web"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="og:url" property="og:url" content="https://sunmarkweb.com/n/nb63f92dc7582"><meta data-n-head="ssr" data-hid="og:title" 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(min-width:481px){.sm\:mx-10{margin-left:2.5rem!important;margin-right:2.5rem!important}.sm\:mx-\[16px\]{margin-left:16px!important;margin-right:16px!important}.sm\:-mt-6{margin-top:-1.5rem!important}.sm\:mb-12{margin-bottom:3rem!important}.sm\:mb-2{margin-bottom:.5rem!important}.sm\:mb-4{margin-bottom:1rem!important}.sm\:mb-\[1\.25vw\]{margin-bottom:1.25vw!important}.sm\:mb-\[2\.5vw\]{margin-bottom:2.5vw!important}.sm\:mb-\[3\.75vw\]{margin-bottom:3.75vw!important}.sm\:ml-10{margin-left:2.5rem!important}.sm\:mr-1{margin-right:.25rem!important}.sm\:mt-4{margin-top:1rem!important}.sm\:mt-6{margin-top:1.5rem!important}.sm\:mt-8{margin-top:2rem!important}.sm\:block{display:block!important}.sm\:flex{display:flex!important}.sm\:grid{display:grid!important}.sm\:hidden{display:none!important}.sm\:max-h-\[440px\]{max-height:440px!important}.sm\:w-\[80px\]{width:80px!important}.sm\:w-\[84px\]{width:84px!important}.sm\:w-auto{width:auto!important}.sm\:w-full{width:100%!important}.sm\:w-min{width:min-content!important}.sm\:min-w-\[84px\]{min-width:84px!important}.sm\:snap-center{scroll-snap-align:center!important}.sm\:grid-cols-2{grid-template-columns:repeat(2,minmax(0,1fr))!important}.sm\:justify-center{justify-content:center!important}.sm\:gap-3{gap:.75rem!important}.sm\:gap-3\.5{gap:.875rem!important}.sm\:gap-8{gap:2rem!important}.sm\:gap-\[11\.25vw\]{gap:11.25vw!important}.sm\:gap-x-8{column-gap:2rem!important}.sm\:p-10{padding:2.5rem!important}.sm\:p-6{padding:1.5rem!important}.sm\:px-10{padding-left:2.5rem!important;padding-right:2.5rem!important}.sm\:px-16{padding-left:4rem!important;padding-right:4rem!important}.sm\:px-6{padding-left:1.5rem!important;padding-right:1.5rem!important}.sm\:py-12{padding-top:3rem!important;padding-bottom:3rem!important}.sm\:pb-0{padding-bottom:0!important}.sm\:pb-6{padding-bottom:1.5rem!important}.sm\:pl-4{padding-left:1rem!important}.sm\:pt-1{padding-top:.25rem!important}.sm\:pt-14{padding-top:3.5rem!important}.sm\:text-base{font-size:var(--font-size-base,1rem)!important}.sm\:text-lg{font-size:var(--font-size-lg,1.125rem)!important}.sm\:text-sm{font-size:var(--font-size-sm,.875rem)!important}.sm\:text-xs{font-size:var(--font-size-xs,.75rem)!important}}@media 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pre[data-name=preCode]{margin-top:36px;margin-bottom:36px;font-family:SFMono-Regular,Consolas,Menlo,Courier,monospace;font-size:var(--font-size-xs);line-height:1.125rem;color:var(--color-text-invert);white-space:pre-wrap;background-color:var(--color-surface-invert)}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body pre,.note-common-styles__textnote-body pre[data-name=preCode]{margin:32px -16px}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body code,.note-common-styles__textnote-body code[data-name=code]{display:block;padding:36px;overflow-x:auto;font-family:SFMono-Regular,Consolas,Menlo,Courier,monospace;font-size:var(--font-size-xs);line-height:1.125rem;color:var(--color-text-invert);word-wrap:normal;white-space:pre;background-color:initial;-webkit-overflow-scrolling:touch}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body code,.note-common-styles__textnote-body code[data-name=code]{padding:24px}.note-common-styles__textnote-body code::-webkit-scrollbar,.note-common-styles__textnote-body code[data-name=code]::-webkit-scrollbar{display:none}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body>ol,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>ul,.note-common-styles__textnote-body blockquote,.note-common-styles__textnote-body figure,.note-common-styles__textnote-body h2,.note-common-styles__textnote-body h3,.note-common-styles__textnote-body hr,.note-common-styles__textnote-body p{margin-top:36px;margin-bottom:36px}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body>ol,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>ul,.note-common-styles__textnote-body blockquote,.note-common-styles__textnote-body figure,.note-common-styles__textnote-body h2,.note-common-styles__textnote-body h3,.note-common-styles__textnote-body hr,.note-common-styles__textnote-body p{margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body>.code-block-container:last-child pre,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>blockquote:last-child,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>figure:last-child,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>h2:last-child,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>h3:last-child,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>hr:last-child,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>ol:last-child,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>p:last-child,.note-common-styles__textnote-body>ul:last-child{margin-bottom:0}.note-common-styles__textnote-body a{text-decoration:underline;cursor:pointer}@media only screen and (min-width:769px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body a:hover{color:var(--color-text-primary);text-decoration:none}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body img{display:block;max-width:100%;height:auto!important;margin:0 auto;text-align:center;cursor:pointer;border:1px solid var(--color-border-weak)}.note-common-styles__textnote-body img.is-slide{cursor:zoom-in}.note-common-styles__textnote-body img.lazyload{width:1000px;height:100px;object-fit:cover;border-radius:8px}.note-common-styles__textnote-body figure>a:has(img){display:table;margin:0 auto}.note-common-styles__textnote-body figcaption{display:block;margin-top:16px;font-size:var(--font-size-sm);text-align:center}.note-common-styles__textnote-body figcaption:empty{margin-top:0}.note-common-styles__textnote-body figure[data-align=right] a,.note-common-styles__textnote-body figure[data-align=right] img{margin:0 0 0 auto}.note-common-styles__textnote-body figure[data-align=left] a,.note-common-styles__textnote-body figure[data-align=left] img{margin:0 auto 0 0}.note-common-styles__textnote-body h2,.note-common-styles__textnote-body h3{margin-bottom:-18px;font-weight:700;font-feature-settings:"palt" 1;line-height:2.25rem;letter-spacing:.04em}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body h2,.note-common-styles__textnote-body h3{margin-bottom:-15px;line-height:1.875rem}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body h2:last-child,.note-common-styles__textnote-body h3:last-child{margin-bottom:0}.note-common-styles__textnote-body h2{margin-top:54px;font-size:var(--font-size-2xl)}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body h2{margin-top:45px;font-size:var(--font-size-xl)}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body h3{margin-top:36px;font-size:var(--font-size-xl)}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body h3{margin-top:30px;font-size:var(--font-size-lg)}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body h2+h3{margin-top:54px}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body h2+h3{margin-top:45px}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body p,.note-common-styles__textnote-body ul li{font-size:var(--font-size-lg);line-height:2.25rem}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body p,.note-common-styles__textnote-body ul 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blockquote+figcaption,.note-common-styles__textnote-body figure blockquote+figcaption{text-align:right}.note-common-styles__textnote-body figure blockquote{margin:0}.note-common-styles__textnote-body ol,.note-common-styles__textnote-body ul{padding-left:24px}.note-common-styles__textnote-body ol li,.note-common-styles__textnote-body ul li{margin-top:9px;margin-bottom:9px;overflow:initial}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.note-common-styles__textnote-body ol li,.note-common-styles__textnote-body ul li{margin-top:7px;margin-bottom:7px}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body ol li p,.note-common-styles__textnote-body ul li p{margin:0 auto}.note-common-styles__textnote-body ul>li{list-style-type:disc}.note-common-styles__textnote-body ol{counter-reset:num 0}.note-common-styles__textnote-body ol>li{list-style-type:none;counter-increment:num 1}.note-common-styles__textnote-body ol>li>p:before{padding-right:4px;margin-left:-20px;content:counter(num) ".";speak:none}.note-common-styles__textnote-body hr{border:none;border-bottom:1px solid var(--color-border-strong)}.note-common-styles__textnote-body ruby rt{color:var(--color-text-secondary)}@media print{.note-common-styles__textnote-body p,.note-common-styles__textnote-body ul li{font-size:var(--font-size-sm);line-height:1.3125rem}.note-common-styles__textnote-body blockquote{font-size:var(--font-size-sm)}.note-common-styles__textnote-body img{max-width:320px;max-height:400px;object-fit:contain}.note-common-styles__textnote-body figcaption{font-size:.625rem}}.note-common-styles__textnote-body [embedded-service=alu]{max-width:500px;margin-right:auto;margin-left:auto}.note-common-styles__textnote-body .fude-iframe-ratio-widget__wrap{position:relative;width:100%;height:0;overflow:hidden;border-radius:4px}.note-common-styles__textnote-body 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src="data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf8,%3Csvg%20viewBox%3D%220%200%20100%20100%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%3E%3Cdefs%3E%3ClinearGradient%20id%3D%22a%22%3E%3Cstop%20offset%3D%220%25%22%20stop-color%3D%22%23f7f9f9%22%2F%3E%3Cstop%20offset%3D%2233%25%22%20stop-color%3D%22%23f7f9f9%22%2F%3E%3Cstop%20offset%3D%2250%25%22%20stop-color%3D%22%23fff%22%2F%3E%3Cstop%20offset%3D%2267%25%22%20stop-color%3D%22%23f7f9f9%22%2F%3E%3Cstop%20offset%3D%22100%25%22%20stop-color%3D%22%23f7f9f9%22%2F%3E%3CanimateTransform%20attributeName%3D%22gradientTransform%22%20type%3D%22translate%22%20from%3D%22-1%200%22%20to%3D%221%200%22%20begin%3D%220s%22%20dur%3D%221.5s%22%20repeatCount%3D%22indefinite%22%2F%3E%3C%2FlinearGradient%3E%3C%2Fdefs%3E%3Cpath%20class%3D%22rect%22%20fill%3D%22url(%23a)%22%20d%3D%22M-100-100h300v300h-300z%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E" data-src="https://assets.st-note.com/production/uploads/images/130566653/profile_4f42a1c26b594f4b46dc9c1b82a0aa56.png?width=60" alt="Sunmark Web" decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="56" height="56" class="a-image m-avatar__image lazyload" data-v-50e2377b data-v-5c1c7fdc></div></a> <div class="o-noteContentHeader__info" data-v-23e3a0e0><div class="o-noteContentHeader__name" data-v-23e3a0e0><a href="/" class="a-link" data-v-43e40ddc data-v-23e3a0e0> Sunmark Web </a></div> <span class="o-noteContentHeader__date" data-v-23e3a0e0><time datetime="2024-11-25T06:30:00.000+09:00" data-v-23e3a0e0>2024年11月25日 06:30</time></span> </div>  <div class="o-noteContentHeader__status" data-v-23e3a0e0> </div></div></div> <div data-name="body" class="note-common-styles__textnote-body" data-v-72236f03><p name="32c27c39-92b0-4935-8c0b-f91ce3514aef" id="32c27c39-92b0-4935-8c0b-f91ce3514aef">　政府が貿易に対して原則として制限を設けない「自由貿易」と逆に国内産業を守るために制限を設ける「保護貿易」を比べて、自由貿易によって競争を促したほうが経済は潤うという主張がなされることがあります。</p><p name="b26e9f1b-4b12-4790-9090-0ce953fced21" id="b26e9f1b-4b12-4790-9090-0ce953fced21">　スペイン・セビリア大学応用経済学教授であるフアン・トーレス・ロペス氏はそこに異論を唱えます。著書<a href="https://amzn.to/40yXtmg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』</a>より、お届けします。</p><figure name="c69c5dc5-ff52-4434-879f-d2a02fee63aa" id="c69c5dc5-ff52-4434-879f-d2a02fee63aa"><a href="https://amzn.to/40yXtmg" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://assets.st-note.com/img/1730867003-GHoDJmisVcLMelK9qWgyPtRY.jpg?width=1200" alt="『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』　サンマーク出版" width="620" height="912" style="width: 372px; height: 547.1999999999999px;" loading="lazy"></a><figcaption>『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』</figcaption></figure><h3 name="420ed8e4-9d51-4215-855b-77dd4f5c2e10" id="420ed8e4-9d51-4215-855b-77dd4f5c2e10">自由な貿易など存在しない。それは便利なフィクション</h3><p name="9c616ea5-c9aa-4a56-bc2c-23a74b85445a" id="9c616ea5-c9aa-4a56-bc2c-23a74b85445a">　国際貿易の分野で最も名高い現代経済学者の1人であり、この分野の研究でスウェーデン国立銀行の経済学賞を受賞したポール・クルーグマンは、かつてこんなことを言った。</p><p name="65fde73c-dd07-459a-8392-4fa28aa3c493" id="65fde73c-dd07-459a-8392-4fa28aa3c493">「もし経済学者たちに信条があるとしたら、それは『自由貿易の擁護』だろう」。</p><p name="79706887-83b8-4289-8cc0-95dd47af7446" id="79706887-83b8-4289-8cc0-95dd47af7446">　それから数年後、グレゴリー・マンキューは、クルーグマンの意見をさらに発展させ、国際貿易に関する経済学者たち「全員の意見が一致」していると新聞記事のなかで述べている。</p><p name="5c1a3d8e-f0be-423a-8fa6-0c2efe3271e2" id="5c1a3d8e-f0be-423a-8fa6-0c2efe3271e2">　マンキューのその口調は、自身の有名な教科書では少しだけ控えめだ。「自由な国際貿易は生産量を分配する効率的な方法であり、国内だけでなく外国の生活水準をも向上させるものとして『大半の』経済学者がこれを支持している」と述べているからだ。</p><p name="4fdcb21e-9fb2-4452-9389-1bdcece54185" id="4fdcb21e-9fb2-4452-9389-1bdcece54185">　そのなかで、「雇用の保護、国家の防衛、新規産業支援、不公正競争の防止、外国の貿易規制といった側面から、貿易を制限するためのさまざまな論拠がある」ことを認めている。そして、これら制限のいくつかは「特定の場合には有益である」としているものの、「経済学者たちは、自由貿易は一般的に最良の政策だと信じていて」、「アメリカは、自由貿易のメリットを確認するための実験が行われている場であると見ている」と書いている。</p><h3 name="e77848fa-8f8e-4de4-9bf9-8597741d0702" id="e77848fa-8f8e-4de4-9bf9-8597741d0702">自由貿易は保護貿易よりメリットが大きい？</h3><p name="473ae762-1dfc-4ee5-9f19-dae9c42a0676" id="473ae762-1dfc-4ee5-9f19-dae9c42a0676">　マンキューのいう見解の一致とは、次のように単純なものだ。</p><p name="7ec6d511-d2c1-4cd7-a8fb-30d9b47c13c2" id="7ec6d511-d2c1-4cd7-a8fb-30d9b47c13c2">　自由貿易の効果は、貿易のあるなしにかかわらず、国内価格と諸外国の価格を比べてみるだけで決定できる。国内での価格が海外のそれよりも低ければ、その国はその製品の生産において他の国々と比較して優位であり、その結果、輸出国となる。反対に、他の国々の価格よりも自国の価格のほうが高ければ、海外の国々のほうが優位なために自国は輸入国となる。いずれの場合も、貿易から得られる利益は損失より大きい。</p><p name="c21bcddb-4f2a-49dc-99a5-e44e3cc1f89b" id="c21bcddb-4f2a-49dc-99a5-e44e3cc1f89b">　ここから、国家間の自由貿易に対するあらゆる制約をなくすことが誰にとっても最善となる。あるいはよく言われるように、経済にとって最善の保護策はあらゆる保護策をなくすこととなる。そして、生産コストを下げて互いに自由に競争させ、マンキューのいうところの、より競争力のある国内価格を実現することが、それぞれの国の国際市場における存在感を高めるのに役立つ。</p><p name="482a7c4e-01f8-40b2-bed6-1dc722dc0ea8" id="482a7c4e-01f8-40b2-bed6-1dc722dc0ea8">　こうした理論モデルでは、あらゆる国はより多くの財とサービスを同じ資源を使ってより低コストで生産するようになる。すると、全体的に効率が上がり、それは生産者や消費者の利益にもつながるというのだ。</p><p name="2180de7b-3bf3-495a-92af-db514b9ba619" id="2180de7b-3bf3-495a-92af-db514b9ba619">　この論拠は魅力的であり、理にかなった当然のことのように見える。しかし、実はまったくのウソだ。歴史を振り返っても、自由貿易がそれほど広がったことはない。そのルールにのっとって発展した国もなく、もし自由貿易に何らかのメリットがあるとしても、それが保護貿易から得られるメリットより大きいという証拠もなければ、海外に対してより高い競争力を持つことが経済活動の質を高め、活性化させる最善の方法であるという証拠もない。</p><h3 name="68060c67-1789-4916-b69a-64bc92db1302" id="68060c67-1789-4916-b69a-64bc92db1302">どこがウソなのか？</h3><p name="6e337744-b459-4b2d-b913-57fff3ff146c" id="6e337744-b459-4b2d-b913-57fff3ff146c">　国際貿易が専門の経済学者のなかにも、自由貿易があらゆる国にとって有益とはいえないことを正直に認めている人がいる。</p><p name="9d46fd44-e0b6-4387-820f-7377d05d1825" id="9d46fd44-e0b6-4387-820f-7377d05d1825">　たとえば、前述のポール・クルーグマンは、「経済理論では、通常、自由貿易は国家をより繁栄させるとしているが、あらゆる国にとって有益だとは言っていない」と述べている。にもかかわらず、このような微妙なニュアンスはたいてい脇に押しやられ、自由貿易は必ず万人に利益をもたらすという考えばかりが広められる。</p><figure name="91b1877b-dec5-430e-8eba-11bc795e99f7" id="91b1877b-dec5-430e-8eba-11bc795e99f7"><img src="https://assets.st-note.com/img/1730867116-R9aqkZFzo3VNGws1rE0tbBAv.jpg?width=1200" alt="" width="620" height="414" loading="lazy"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h3 name="8cf70ca3-c32b-40b9-bb72-e755f04dad73" id="8cf70ca3-c32b-40b9-bb72-e755f04dad73">現実には「自由貿易」は存在しない</h3><p name="3b55404e-3e7b-43b4-b4ef-8c95bfc3b23d" id="3b55404e-3e7b-43b4-b4ef-8c95bfc3b23d">　ここ数年、いわゆる「自由貿易」協定が何十も締結されてきた。しかし、それらが本当に「自由」かというとそうではない。すべての協定には、締結国のいずれかに有利な条件の条項が含まれて、より強い国が、あらゆる保護的な補助や措置を設ける権利を留保できるようになっている。複雑な仕組みを丁寧にひもといていくと、豊かな国のほうが必ず守られるように定められていて、もう一方の締結国に求められる本来の自由貿易の概念は反映されていないのだ。</p><p name="15a457c6-3954-4014-a3f8-11ce278a36da" id="15a457c6-3954-4014-a3f8-11ce278a36da">　ゴーリングＷＬＧの調査報告書によれば、2008年から2016年までに世界の主要な60か国は、自国の主要産業の強化、雇用の保護、戦略的優位の維持のために7000以上の保護的な貿易措置を採択したと推定されている。</p><p name="b391fcf0-df8f-41af-b3e7-b578ac92785d" id="b391fcf0-df8f-41af-b3e7-b578ac92785d">　欧州連合（ＥＵ）は、2009年から2016年までに、かなり積極的な貿易制限とみなされる5657以上の措置を講じた。</p><p name="0a6a4248-4cb7-4aff-ba8c-914328989e09" id="0a6a4248-4cb7-4aff-ba8c-914328989e09">　では、マンキューが自身の教科書の中で、「自由貿易のメリットを確認するための実験が行われている場」としたアメリカはどうだろうか？<br>同期間に定められた規則のうち、保護的なルールが1297だったのに対し、国際貿易の自由化を促進するルールは206しかなかった。</p><p name="15c0fb47-6bcd-4787-b524-23dbb382f0e9" id="15c0fb47-6bcd-4787-b524-23dbb382f0e9">　一方、グローバル・トレード・アラートによる別の報告書では、これまで取られてきた保護的措置の3分の2は、世界で最強のＧ20諸国によるものだと明らかにしている。</p><p name="b9e8cbad-a981-4feb-89fd-fbb880cc04a7" id="b9e8cbad-a981-4feb-89fd-fbb880cc04a7">　世界貿易機関（ＷＴＯ）の元事務局長パスカル・ラミーがいうように、現実には「自由貿易は存在しない。（中略）それは便利なフィクションにすぎない」。ここに、大半の経済学者が認めたがらないことが説明されている。つまり、自由貿易のメリットは現実的にも理論的にも証明されないということだ。</p><p name="1d7be6a9-57a4-4924-930c-bb4c87b47362" id="1d7be6a9-57a4-4924-930c-bb4c87b47362">　事実はゆるがず、すべてを明らかにする。</p><p name="7849e4ce-82ff-4963-b28a-efb4f3f42a83" id="7849e4ce-82ff-4963-b28a-efb4f3f42a83">　他国からの財やサービスに対して全面的な開放をするという自由貿易のルールを導入した国で、経済や社会福祉が少しでも改善したところは1つもない。ほとんどは、段階的な関税、補助金、輸出入割当量、品質制限などのありとあらゆる政策を用いて自国を守ってきた。このことについては多くの経済学者や歴史家が明らかにしてきた経験則があり、疑問を挟む余地はない。</p><p name="9bf188b9-b2ba-469d-8866-23563eb16794" id="9bf188b9-b2ba-469d-8866-23563eb16794">　自由貿易を擁護する経済学者のなかには、外国に向けて大きく門戸を開いてうまく行っている国を例に挙げる者もいるが、それらの国は長年にわたる強固な保護主義政策の末に門戸を開いたからこそ成功したという事実については指摘していない。世界市場を支配し、すべての競争が鎮静化してからようやく、自由貿易を提唱しているのだ。</p><h3 name="bd46ef71-c08a-4db3-9830-32547300fa47" id="bd46ef71-c08a-4db3-9830-32547300fa47">経済成長と開放度は反比例</h3><p name="09497a94-2e5a-4f04-854f-c2791a185b09" id="09497a94-2e5a-4f04-854f-c2791a185b09">　19世紀から20世紀にかけて見られた経済成長率の大きな伸びは国際貿易の開放度に反比例していることがわかっている。そして、1990年代以降の国際貿易の拡大が世界のＧＤＰを大幅に増やしたという主張にも裏がある。ここでは旧ソビエト連邦では国内貿易とされていたものが国際貿易として計上されたことを考慮していないのだ。</p><p name="1dd008ab-a7bc-42ed-9689-656ff032fb3d" id="1dd008ab-a7bc-42ed-9689-656ff032fb3d">　そのため、ジャグディーシュ・バグワティーのような自由貿易の熱心な擁護者ですら、必ずしも自由貿易が経済成長を促進してはいないこと、ましてや全世界の経済を同時に成長させているわけではないことを認めている。</p><p name="b73681cf-b807-48bd-a03c-aa48170142f9" id="b73681cf-b807-48bd-a03c-aa48170142f9">　多くの経済学者たちもまた、発展途上国の場合には保護主義政策をとっている国のほうが自由貿易を進めている国々よりも経済的に発展していることを明らかにしている。たしかに、貿易の開放度が高かった時期に経済が活発になったという国もいくつかある。しかしそれらの国々は、同時に適切なマクロ経済政策を実施してきた。こうした政策がともなわない場合には、同じ対外貿易開放戦略をとってもそれほどのプラスの効果は生まれていない。</p><p name="db039c41-1c40-4942-b8ef-dc6e93607995" id="db039c41-1c40-4942-b8ef-dc6e93607995">　さらに、自由化によってもたらされると見込まれてきた多くの利益に関しても疑問視されている。たとえば、輸出助成金の廃止が富裕国に有利になることや自由化によって貧しい国の農業部門が決定的な損失を被ることが示されたりしている。</p><p name="5b956070-5d0f-4bfe-94d1-da82e65eb2ca" id="5b956070-5d0f-4bfe-94d1-da82e65eb2ca">　最後に、アメリカのケースを見てみよう。この大国は、自由貿易の協定を結んでいない国を相手に貿易をするときには多くの利益を得ているが、逆に自由貿易のルールを守ったときには好ましくない収支となっている。つまり、自由貿易を擁護する人たちの主張とはまったく反対のことが起こっている。</p><p name="0b065fa5-5cd7-4171-a9e6-0447c523079a" id="0b065fa5-5cd7-4171-a9e6-0447c523079a">　このように現実を見ると、歴史をさかのぼってみても、自由貿易が効果的で、あらゆる国がその恩恵を受けてきた、あるいは現在恩恵を受けているという事実は存在しないことがわかる。ハジュン・チャンがいうように、現在最も豊かな国々は、繁栄と市場支配を手に入れるために保護政策の梯子を上ってきた。</p><p name="2667d148-8335-4260-88b4-b07d42b83198" id="2667d148-8335-4260-88b4-b07d42b83198">　しかし、それを手に入れた後で、あとに続いていた他の国々が同じ道をたどって自分たちの地位を脅かすことがないように、その梯子をはずしたのである。</p><p name="9f7026b0-bbb2-4961-8700-63b5be5b0e67" id="9f7026b0-bbb2-4961-8700-63b5be5b0e67">そのため、完全に非現実的できわめて論拠に乏しいウソを何十年も維持しつづけてきた。</p><p name="a503e286-450d-41b4-8d64-132be010ac69" id="a503e286-450d-41b4-8d64-132be010ac69">　当初は、障壁がいっさいない自由貿易が保護貿易よりも優れていることを示すのに、完全競争市場が広く存在するという仮説が使われた。しかし、現実的に見てそんな市場はありえない。のちにこの仮説は脇に追いやられたものの、いまだにそれとたいして変わらない、市場や企業や消費者の実情とはかけはなれたいくつかの仮説が幅を利きかせている。</p><figure name="2ef197ce-2d0b-49bd-a3ff-e285020315ab" id="2ef197ce-2d0b-49bd-a3ff-e285020315ab"><img src="https://assets.st-note.com/img/1730867162-Uw5BM1m7EPjl6VNQoe9LyRZK.jpg?width=1200" alt="" width="620" height="346" loading="lazy"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><h3 name="fa766220-f32c-458d-bc3d-181a3447d594" id="fa766220-f32c-458d-bc3d-181a3447d594">かなりの不利益を与えてしまうことも</h3><p name="3413a482-8d3d-460b-b129-0790bb27e265" id="3413a482-8d3d-460b-b129-0790bb27e265">　自由貿易の優位性を立証するためには、たとえ国内経済を保護する貿易の障壁をすべて取り除いたとしても所得の分配にはなんら影響を及ぼさないという仮説が成り立たなくてはならない。つまり、海外に門戸を開くことで国内のある業種の雇用が失われたとしても、まったく同じ数の雇用が別の業種でつくりだされるので、そこで雇用された人たちは以前とまったく同じ賃金を受け取れるという仮説だ。</p><p name="d0ef3230-7c7c-4ef7-8ec9-a6c405a537b2" id="d0ef3230-7c7c-4ef7-8ec9-a6c405a537b2">　これらのモデルは、非常に洗練された数学を使った計算式で表されているが、完全に非現実的なものである。とんでもない奇跡でも起こらない限り、ぴったりに調整できるはずはなく、実際にはそれと正反対のことが起こっている。</p><p name="79afcc2a-6c81-4934-b82e-eef88f2ad3df" id="79afcc2a-6c81-4934-b82e-eef88f2ad3df">　貿易の自由化の明らかなメリットが声高に語られる一方で、一部の業種、企業、あるいは社会集団にかなりの不利益を与えてしまうというデメリットが見られる。そのため、それらを把握したり記録したりするのは困難で、補償対策も行きとどかない。</p><p name="5baeeb56-b357-421b-adcd-b29e0caf709a" id="5baeeb56-b357-421b-adcd-b29e0caf709a">　したがって、批判的な研究者たちが指摘してきたように、各国の輸出入の対外価格の変動に対する実質的な反応を正確に測ることはほぼ不可能である（本章の頭で述べたように自由貿易の優位性に関するマンキューの論拠を思い出してほしい）。実際の同じデータから異なる結果が導き出される場合があることからも明らかだろう。</p><p name="730e4fcc-0ee1-4f1a-a630-4f6bc7bf9990" id="730e4fcc-0ee1-4f1a-a630-4f6bc7bf9990">　雇用の調整についても同様だ。現実社会では自動的で迅速な雇用調整などできるわけがなく、新たな雇用などまったく生まれない、あるいは創出に長い時間がかかることがわかっている。</p><h3 name="b67f7bd5-72d7-4a6a-b2de-f4c38697a02f" id="b67f7bd5-72d7-4a6a-b2de-f4c38697a02f">3つの問題</h3><p name="cd07108d-1742-45a0-a211-be7190f2af8d" id="cd07108d-1742-45a0-a211-be7190f2af8d">　さらに、これらの理論では、基本的な3つの問題が考慮されていない。</p><p name="2bf71428-6ee2-460e-8e2a-3bb99cabc2c2" id="2bf71428-6ee2-460e-8e2a-3bb99cabc2c2">　1つ目に、国際貿易では、ある経済圏と別の経済圏とが互いに影響を与え合うわけではないので、マンキューが教科書で述べているような「国内価格」と「国外価格」という考え方は非現実的でばかげている。生産者同士あるいは企業同士が競争するわけではなく、実際は、規則をつくり価格やコストに影響を与えたりして絶えず貿易の条件を定めようとする政府と企業とが闘っているのだ。</p><p name="ed406b08-5ab9-45b6-9f84-76b4ce9c9144" id="ed406b08-5ab9-45b6-9f84-76b4ce9c9144">　2つ目の問題は、ある程度海外に貿易の門戸を開いた後に何が起こりえるのかを考慮していないことにある。つまり、一方では、このような理論に沿った政策がもたらすメリットとデメリットについて詳細な検討を行っておらず、もう一方では、海外との取引条件が変わることによってその経済圏が得るもの、あるいは失うもの（機会費用）についても考慮していない。</p><p name="92c53fab-cd6b-457f-b280-637eee7741e3" id="92c53fab-cd6b-457f-b280-637eee7741e3">　そしてなによりも、国際貿易のメリットを低価格という効率性に限定している点だ。保護主義に対して貿易の自由化がもたらすメリットとデメリットを本当に見きわめたいのであれば、注視しなくてはいけないのは価格だけではない。雇用、生活状況、人権といった定性的な効果も考慮に入れることが不可欠だ。</p><p name="f037ea72-0ceb-4bfa-9e7a-a6da07a31561" id="f037ea72-0ceb-4bfa-9e7a-a6da07a31561">　最後の3つ目に、これらのモデルの基本的な欠点を忘れてはならない。それは、自由貿易というシステムのメリットについて、貿易をしない場合と比較して推論している点だ。この経済理論が唯一明らかにしていることは、「国家にとって他の経済圏と貿易することは自給自足体制よりも有益だ」という当たり前のことでしかない。</p><p name="7f7e38be-75e4-4499-ac18-58dfb6ba8a70" id="7f7e38be-75e4-4499-ac18-58dfb6ba8a70">　しかも、その「最大のメリット」の唯一の根拠を財やサービスの価格としているが、それも現実には成立しない条件下におけるものだ。</p><p name="a7fdecfd-eebf-40b5-835e-97a03c01611e" id="a7fdecfd-eebf-40b5-835e-97a03c01611e">　要するに、実際には、いわゆる保護貿易よりも自由貿易のほうが経済全体にとって有益だということは証明できていない。自由貿易のおかげで、経済効率が高まったり経済格差がなくなったりしたとか、地球環境や人類の福祉が向上したといった事実は明らかにされていない。むしろ、これまでの歴史はそれとは反対の結果を示している。</p><h3 name="2e281e7b-2a9b-48d1-acea-95891b8fda08" id="2e281e7b-2a9b-48d1-acea-95891b8fda08">そのウソがどんな結果をもたらすか？</h3><p name="1bb9cdb6-b933-4c6d-bb07-562a898c4353" id="1bb9cdb6-b933-4c6d-bb07-562a898c4353">　本章で見てきたようなウソが経済政策に及ぼす結果は多様で、人々の生活にも大きな影響を与える。</p><p name="b262ca83-a036-4579-8c77-4cb301cbe49a" id="b262ca83-a036-4579-8c77-4cb301cbe49a">　まず、豊かな福祉社会を実現するには、国益を守るルールなしの自由な国際市場にすればいいと人々が信じるようになる。そうなると、たまたま海外貿易のために門戸を大きく開いたタイミングで景気が良くなった場合、それが実は何十年にもわたるそれまでの国家による産業保護の成果だったり、自由貿易開始後に打撃を受けた産業分野や人々を保護する財政政策のおかげであったりしても、その事実は隠れてしまう。</p><p name="45c95d2f-788f-4d03-a2b5-166e41752a4f" id="45c95d2f-788f-4d03-a2b5-166e41752a4f">　にもかかわらず、国際的な経済団体や大国が弱い国に対して貿易開放を促す際には、公共部門の縮小を強いたり、税収減につながる他の措置をとらせたりすることによって、彼らの両手を縛り、そうした財政政策の可能性を制限することが多い。</p><h3 name="75265eda-80ca-4bce-a1f8-3ac249c65c12" id="75265eda-80ca-4bce-a1f8-3ac249c65c12">無計画の貿易開放は格差を広げる</h3><p name="18fb3a1f-19dd-4967-9e44-ecf673df233f" id="18fb3a1f-19dd-4967-9e44-ecf673df233f">　いずれにせよ、ここまで見てきたとおり、こうした自由化措置はひどく不均衡なものだ。より貧しく弱い国々に自由貿易を強いながら、富裕国は自国を保護する政策をとるからだ。それが世界における格差を広げている。富める国とそうでない国の間の格差だけでなく、富裕国の国内でも格差が大きくなる。なぜなら、同時に、自由貿易によって得た利益を平等に分ける富の再分配政策が弱まるからだ。</p><p name="dd071c58-e762-452b-a7f6-7b097eee26d7" id="dd071c58-e762-452b-a7f6-7b097eee26d7">　国境を広く開放して海外製品を受け入れることは、どの国や経済圏にとっても有益だとしながらも、実際にはそれをより貧しい国だけに強いる。それは、もともと不平等が存在するにもかかわらずあたかも平等と見せかけることにつながり、最悪の場合、その不平等と不均衡を絶えず倍増させていくことになる。</p><p name="151dc662-367b-411f-8f35-63e21087d50b" id="151dc662-367b-411f-8f35-63e21087d50b">　さまざまな研究が指摘してきたように、こうした国際貿易は勝者と敗者を生み、そのような不均衡がつくりだす不平等や経済危機を避けるための補償や対策が同時に進められることはない。そして、ジョン・メイドリーが示したように、特に貿易の自由化、食の安全、貧困という3つの関係性を見る限り、勝者よりも敗者の数のほうが多くなる。</p><p name="2b192bae-c75b-4caf-918b-94eaab803644" id="2b192bae-c75b-4caf-918b-94eaab803644">　結局、国際貿易が活発であればあるほど経済全体にメリットがあるとか、保護策なしの貿易はすべての企業に利益をもたらし、経済の安定、より良い暮らし、人々の満足度の改善につながる確実な対策であるという主張は誤りで、不誠実でしかないのだ。</p><p name="b6c2160e-0410-4a95-a1d7-fd06b487b054" id="b6c2160e-0410-4a95-a1d7-fd06b487b054"><strong>ホント：適切な保護貿易が経済をよくする</strong></p><p name="52890be7-eb32-445a-a540-c9331f2b76db" id="52890be7-eb32-445a-a540-c9331f2b76db">＜本稿は『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』（サンマーク出版）から一部抜粋して再構成したものです＞</p><p name="12ffeecc-22b0-4d9e-805d-fa2cf8868b91" id="12ffeecc-22b0-4d9e-805d-fa2cf8868b91">（編集：サンマーク出版　Sunmark Web編集部）<br>Photo by Shutterstock</p><hr name="233599ce-52b4-4554-af41-5f4f94fe8649" id="233599ce-52b4-4554-af41-5f4f94fe8649"><p name="a57d2702-4e5c-4ad0-a235-7df773eda23a" id="a57d2702-4e5c-4ad0-a235-7df773eda23a">【著者】<br>フアン・トーレス・ロペス（Junan Torres López）<br>セビリア大学応用経済学教授</p><p name="8d294713-8c6d-42d4-990a-7d364c047b6a" id="8d294713-8c6d-42d4-990a-7d364c047b6a">【訳者】<br>村松　花（むらまつ・はな）</p><figure name="4cb1eab4-67f4-4ff5-aed0-c5fed44992af" id="4cb1eab4-67f4-4ff5-aed0-c5fed44992af" data-src="https://amzn.to/40yXtmg" data-identifier="null" embedded-service="external-article" embedded-content-key="emb02d6d65fb6d7"><div data-name="embedContainer"><div data-embed-service="external-article"><span><div class="external-article-widget external-article-widget--type_shopping"> <a href="https://amzn.to/40yXtmg" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> <strong class="external-article-widget-title"> 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name=\"32c27c39-92b0-4935-8c0b-f91ce3514aef\" id=\"32c27c39-92b0-4935-8c0b-f91ce3514aef\"\u003E　政府が貿易に対して原則として制限を設けない「自由貿易」と逆に国内産業を守るために制限を設ける「保護貿易」を比べて、自由貿易によって競争を促したほうが経済は潤うという主張がなされることがあります。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"b26e9f1b-4b12-4790-9090-0ce953fced21\" id=\"b26e9f1b-4b12-4790-9090-0ce953fced21\"\u003E　スペイン・セビリア大学応用経済学教授であるフアン・トーレス・ロペス氏はそこに異論を唱えます。著書\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Famzn.to\u002F40yXtmg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"\u003E『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』\u003C\u002Fa\u003Eより、お届けします。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cfigure name=\"c69c5dc5-ff52-4434-879f-d2a02fee63aa\" id=\"c69c5dc5-ff52-4434-879f-d2a02fee63aa\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Famzn.to\u002F40yXtmg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"\u003E\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.st-note.com\u002Fimg\u002F1730867003-GHoDJmisVcLMelK9qWgyPtRY.jpg?width=1200\" alt=\"『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』　サンマーク出版\" width=\"620\" height=\"912\" style=\"width: 372px; height: 547.1999999999999px;\" loading=\"lazy\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fa\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』\u003C\u002Ffigcaption\u003E\u003C\u002Ffigure\u003E\u003Ch3 name=\"420ed8e4-9d51-4215-855b-77dd4f5c2e10\" id=\"420ed8e4-9d51-4215-855b-77dd4f5c2e10\"\u003E自由な貿易など存在しない。それは便利なフィクション\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\u003Cp name=\"9c616ea5-c9aa-4a56-bc2c-23a74b85445a\" id=\"9c616ea5-c9aa-4a56-bc2c-23a74b85445a\"\u003E　国際貿易の分野で最も名高い現代経済学者の1人であり、この分野の研究でスウェーデン国立銀行の経済学賞を受賞したポール・クルーグマンは、かつてこんなことを言った。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"65fde73c-dd07-459a-8392-4fa28aa3c493\" id=\"65fde73c-dd07-459a-8392-4fa28aa3c493\"\u003E「もし経済学者たちに信条があるとしたら、それは『自由貿易の擁護』だろう」。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"79706887-83b8-4289-8cc0-95dd47af7446\" id=\"79706887-83b8-4289-8cc0-95dd47af7446\"\u003E　それから数年後、グレゴリー・マンキューは、クルーグマンの意見をさらに発展させ、国際貿易に関する経済学者たち「全員の意見が一致」していると新聞記事のなかで述べている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"5c1a3d8e-f0be-423a-8fa6-0c2efe3271e2\" id=\"5c1a3d8e-f0be-423a-8fa6-0c2efe3271e2\"\u003E　マンキューのその口調は、自身の有名な教科書では少しだけ控えめだ。「自由な国際貿易は生産量を分配する効率的な方法であり、国内だけでなく外国の生活水準をも向上させるものとして『大半の』経済学者がこれを支持している」と述べているからだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"4fdcb21e-9fb2-4452-9389-1bdcece54185\" id=\"4fdcb21e-9fb2-4452-9389-1bdcece54185\"\u003E　そのなかで、「雇用の保護、国家の防衛、新規産業支援、不公正競争の防止、外国の貿易規制といった側面から、貿易を制限するためのさまざまな論拠がある」ことを認めている。そして、これら制限のいくつかは「特定の場合には有益である」としているものの、「経済学者たちは、自由貿易は一般的に最良の政策だと信じていて」、「アメリカは、自由貿易のメリットを確認するための実験が行われている場であると見ている」と書いている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch3 name=\"e77848fa-8f8e-4de4-9bf9-8597741d0702\" id=\"e77848fa-8f8e-4de4-9bf9-8597741d0702\"\u003E自由貿易は保護貿易よりメリットが大きい？\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\u003Cp name=\"473ae762-1dfc-4ee5-9f19-dae9c42a0676\" id=\"473ae762-1dfc-4ee5-9f19-dae9c42a0676\"\u003E　マンキューのいう見解の一致とは、次のように単純なものだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"7ec6d511-d2c1-4cd7-a8fb-30d9b47c13c2\" id=\"7ec6d511-d2c1-4cd7-a8fb-30d9b47c13c2\"\u003E　自由貿易の効果は、貿易のあるなしにかかわらず、国内価格と諸外国の価格を比べてみるだけで決定できる。国内での価格が海外のそれよりも低ければ、その国はその製品の生産において他の国々と比較して優位であり、その結果、輸出国となる。反対に、他の国々の価格よりも自国の価格のほうが高ければ、海外の国々のほうが優位なために自国は輸入国となる。いずれの場合も、貿易から得られる利益は損失より大きい。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"c21bcddb-4f2a-49dc-99a5-e44e3cc1f89b\" id=\"c21bcddb-4f2a-49dc-99a5-e44e3cc1f89b\"\u003E　ここから、国家間の自由貿易に対するあらゆる制約をなくすことが誰にとっても最善となる。あるいはよく言われるように、経済にとって最善の保護策はあらゆる保護策をなくすこととなる。そして、生産コストを下げて互いに自由に競争させ、マンキューのいうところの、より競争力のある国内価格を実現することが、それぞれの国の国際市場における存在感を高めるのに役立つ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"482a7c4e-01f8-40b2-bed6-1dc722dc0ea8\" id=\"482a7c4e-01f8-40b2-bed6-1dc722dc0ea8\"\u003E　こうした理論モデルでは、あらゆる国はより多くの財とサービスを同じ資源を使ってより低コストで生産するようになる。すると、全体的に効率が上がり、それは生産者や消費者の利益にもつながるというのだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"2180de7b-3bf3-495a-92af-db514b9ba619\" id=\"2180de7b-3bf3-495a-92af-db514b9ba619\"\u003E　この論拠は魅力的であり、理にかなった当然のことのように見える。しかし、実はまったくのウソだ。歴史を振り返っても、自由貿易がそれほど広がったことはない。そのルールにのっとって発展した国もなく、もし自由貿易に何らかのメリットがあるとしても、それが保護貿易から得られるメリットより大きいという証拠もなければ、海外に対してより高い競争力を持つことが経済活動の質を高め、活性化させる最善の方法であるという証拠もない。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch3 name=\"68060c67-1789-4916-b69a-64bc92db1302\" id=\"68060c67-1789-4916-b69a-64bc92db1302\"\u003Eどこがウソなのか？\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\u003Cp name=\"6e337744-b459-4b2d-b913-57fff3ff146c\" id=\"6e337744-b459-4b2d-b913-57fff3ff146c\"\u003E　国際貿易が専門の経済学者のなかにも、自由貿易があらゆる国にとって有益とはいえないことを正直に認めている人がいる。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"9d46fd44-e0b6-4387-820f-7377d05d1825\" id=\"9d46fd44-e0b6-4387-820f-7377d05d1825\"\u003E　たとえば、前述のポール・クルーグマンは、「経済理論では、通常、自由貿易は国家をより繁栄させるとしているが、あらゆる国にとって有益だとは言っていない」と述べている。にもかかわらず、このような微妙なニュアンスはたいてい脇に押しやられ、自由貿易は必ず万人に利益をもたらすという考えばかりが広められる。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cfigure name=\"91b1877b-dec5-430e-8eba-11bc795e99f7\" id=\"91b1877b-dec5-430e-8eba-11bc795e99f7\"\u003E\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.st-note.com\u002Fimg\u002F1730867116-R9aqkZFzo3VNGws1rE0tbBAv.jpg?width=1200\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"414\" loading=\"lazy\"\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E\u003C\u002Ffigcaption\u003E\u003C\u002Ffigure\u003E\u003Ch3 name=\"8cf70ca3-c32b-40b9-bb72-e755f04dad73\" id=\"8cf70ca3-c32b-40b9-bb72-e755f04dad73\"\u003E現実には「自由貿易」は存在しない\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\u003Cp name=\"3b55404e-3e7b-43b4-b4ef-8c95bfc3b23d\" id=\"3b55404e-3e7b-43b4-b4ef-8c95bfc3b23d\"\u003E　ここ数年、いわゆる「自由貿易」協定が何十も締結されてきた。しかし、それらが本当に「自由」かというとそうではない。すべての協定には、締結国のいずれかに有利な条件の条項が含まれて、より強い国が、あらゆる保護的な補助や措置を設ける権利を留保できるようになっている。複雑な仕組みを丁寧にひもといていくと、豊かな国のほうが必ず守られるように定められていて、もう一方の締結国に求められる本来の自由貿易の概念は反映されていないのだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"15a457c6-3954-4014-a3f8-11ce278a36da\" id=\"15a457c6-3954-4014-a3f8-11ce278a36da\"\u003E　ゴーリングＷＬＧの調査報告書によれば、2008年から2016年までに世界の主要な60か国は、自国の主要産業の強化、雇用の保護、戦略的優位の維持のために7000以上の保護的な貿易措置を採択したと推定されている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"b391fcf0-df8f-41af-b3e7-b578ac92785d\" id=\"b391fcf0-df8f-41af-b3e7-b578ac92785d\"\u003E　欧州連合（ＥＵ）は、2009年から2016年までに、かなり積極的な貿易制限とみなされる5657以上の措置を講じた。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"0a6a4248-4cb7-4aff-ba8c-914328989e09\" id=\"0a6a4248-4cb7-4aff-ba8c-914328989e09\"\u003E　では、マンキューが自身の教科書の中で、「自由貿易のメリットを確認するための実験が行われている場」としたアメリカはどうだろうか？\u003Cbr\u003E同期間に定められた規則のうち、保護的なルールが1297だったのに対し、国際貿易の自由化を促進するルールは206しかなかった。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"15c0fb47-6bcd-4787-b524-23dbb382f0e9\" id=\"15c0fb47-6bcd-4787-b524-23dbb382f0e9\"\u003E　一方、グローバル・トレード・アラートによる別の報告書では、これまで取られてきた保護的措置の3分の2は、世界で最強のＧ20諸国によるものだと明らかにしている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"b9e8cbad-a981-4feb-89fd-fbb880cc04a7\" id=\"b9e8cbad-a981-4feb-89fd-fbb880cc04a7\"\u003E　世界貿易機関（ＷＴＯ）の元事務局長パスカル・ラミーがいうように、現実には「自由貿易は存在しない。（中略）それは便利なフィクションにすぎない」。ここに、大半の経済学者が認めたがらないことが説明されている。つまり、自由貿易のメリットは現実的にも理論的にも証明されないということだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"1d7be6a9-57a4-4924-930c-bb4c87b47362\" id=\"1d7be6a9-57a4-4924-930c-bb4c87b47362\"\u003E　事実はゆるがず、すべてを明らかにする。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"7849e4ce-82ff-4963-b28a-efb4f3f42a83\" id=\"7849e4ce-82ff-4963-b28a-efb4f3f42a83\"\u003E　他国からの財やサービスに対して全面的な開放をするという自由貿易のルールを導入した国で、経済や社会福祉が少しでも改善したところは1つもない。ほとんどは、段階的な関税、補助金、輸出入割当量、品質制限などのありとあらゆる政策を用いて自国を守ってきた。このことについては多くの経済学者や歴史家が明らかにしてきた経験則があり、疑問を挟む余地はない。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"9bf188b9-b2ba-469d-8866-23563eb16794\" id=\"9bf188b9-b2ba-469d-8866-23563eb16794\"\u003E　自由貿易を擁護する経済学者のなかには、外国に向けて大きく門戸を開いてうまく行っている国を例に挙げる者もいるが、それらの国は長年にわたる強固な保護主義政策の末に門戸を開いたからこそ成功したという事実については指摘していない。世界市場を支配し、すべての競争が鎮静化してからようやく、自由貿易を提唱しているのだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch3 name=\"bd46ef71-c08a-4db3-9830-32547300fa47\" id=\"bd46ef71-c08a-4db3-9830-32547300fa47\"\u003E経済成長と開放度は反比例\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\u003Cp name=\"09497a94-2e5a-4f04-854f-c2791a185b09\" id=\"09497a94-2e5a-4f04-854f-c2791a185b09\"\u003E　19世紀から20世紀にかけて見られた経済成長率の大きな伸びは国際貿易の開放度に反比例していることがわかっている。そして、1990年代以降の国際貿易の拡大が世界のＧＤＰを大幅に増やしたという主張にも裏がある。ここでは旧ソビエト連邦では国内貿易とされていたものが国際貿易として計上されたことを考慮していないのだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"1dd008ab-a7bc-42ed-9689-656ff032fb3d\" id=\"1dd008ab-a7bc-42ed-9689-656ff032fb3d\"\u003E　そのため、ジャグディーシュ・バグワティーのような自由貿易の熱心な擁護者ですら、必ずしも自由貿易が経済成長を促進してはいないこと、ましてや全世界の経済を同時に成長させているわけではないことを認めている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"b73681cf-b807-48bd-a03c-aa48170142f9\" id=\"b73681cf-b807-48bd-a03c-aa48170142f9\"\u003E　多くの経済学者たちもまた、発展途上国の場合には保護主義政策をとっている国のほうが自由貿易を進めている国々よりも経済的に発展していることを明らかにしている。たしかに、貿易の開放度が高かった時期に経済が活発になったという国もいくつかある。しかしそれらの国々は、同時に適切なマクロ経済政策を実施してきた。こうした政策がともなわない場合には、同じ対外貿易開放戦略をとってもそれほどのプラスの効果は生まれていない。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"db039c41-1c40-4942-b8ef-dc6e93607995\" id=\"db039c41-1c40-4942-b8ef-dc6e93607995\"\u003E　さらに、自由化によってもたらされると見込まれてきた多くの利益に関しても疑問視されている。たとえば、輸出助成金の廃止が富裕国に有利になることや自由化によって貧しい国の農業部門が決定的な損失を被ることが示されたりしている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"5b956070-5d0f-4bfe-94d1-da82e65eb2ca\" id=\"5b956070-5d0f-4bfe-94d1-da82e65eb2ca\"\u003E　最後に、アメリカのケースを見てみよう。この大国は、自由貿易の協定を結んでいない国を相手に貿易をするときには多くの利益を得ているが、逆に自由貿易のルールを守ったときには好ましくない収支となっている。つまり、自由貿易を擁護する人たちの主張とはまったく反対のことが起こっている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"0b065fa5-5cd7-4171-a9e6-0447c523079a\" id=\"0b065fa5-5cd7-4171-a9e6-0447c523079a\"\u003E　このように現実を見ると、歴史をさかのぼってみても、自由貿易が効果的で、あらゆる国がその恩恵を受けてきた、あるいは現在恩恵を受けているという事実は存在しないことがわかる。ハジュン・チャンがいうように、現在最も豊かな国々は、繁栄と市場支配を手に入れるために保護政策の梯子を上ってきた。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"2667d148-8335-4260-88b4-b07d42b83198\" id=\"2667d148-8335-4260-88b4-b07d42b83198\"\u003E　しかし、それを手に入れた後で、あとに続いていた他の国々が同じ道をたどって自分たちの地位を脅かすことがないように、その梯子をはずしたのである。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"9f7026b0-bbb2-4961-8700-63b5be5b0e67\" id=\"9f7026b0-bbb2-4961-8700-63b5be5b0e67\"\u003Eそのため、完全に非現実的できわめて論拠に乏しいウソを何十年も維持しつづけてきた。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"a503e286-450d-41b4-8d64-132be010ac69\" id=\"a503e286-450d-41b4-8d64-132be010ac69\"\u003E　当初は、障壁がいっさいない自由貿易が保護貿易よりも優れていることを示すのに、完全競争市場が広く存在するという仮説が使われた。しかし、現実的に見てそんな市場はありえない。のちにこの仮説は脇に追いやられたものの、いまだにそれとたいして変わらない、市場や企業や消費者の実情とはかけはなれたいくつかの仮説が幅を利きかせている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cfigure name=\"2ef197ce-2d0b-49bd-a3ff-e285020315ab\" id=\"2ef197ce-2d0b-49bd-a3ff-e285020315ab\"\u003E\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fassets.st-note.com\u002Fimg\u002F1730867162-Uw5BM1m7EPjl6VNQoe9LyRZK.jpg?width=1200\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"346\" loading=\"lazy\"\u003E\u003Cfigcaption\u003E\u003C\u002Ffigcaption\u003E\u003C\u002Ffigure\u003E\u003Ch3 name=\"fa766220-f32c-458d-bc3d-181a3447d594\" id=\"fa766220-f32c-458d-bc3d-181a3447d594\"\u003Eかなりの不利益を与えてしまうことも\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\u003Cp name=\"3413a482-8d3d-460b-b129-0790bb27e265\" id=\"3413a482-8d3d-460b-b129-0790bb27e265\"\u003E　自由貿易の優位性を立証するためには、たとえ国内経済を保護する貿易の障壁をすべて取り除いたとしても所得の分配にはなんら影響を及ぼさないという仮説が成り立たなくてはならない。つまり、海外に門戸を開くことで国内のある業種の雇用が失われたとしても、まったく同じ数の雇用が別の業種でつくりだされるので、そこで雇用された人たちは以前とまったく同じ賃金を受け取れるという仮説だ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"d0ef3230-7c7c-4ef7-8ec9-a6c405a537b2\" id=\"d0ef3230-7c7c-4ef7-8ec9-a6c405a537b2\"\u003E　これらのモデルは、非常に洗練された数学を使った計算式で表されているが、完全に非現実的なものである。とんでもない奇跡でも起こらない限り、ぴったりに調整できるはずはなく、実際にはそれと正反対のことが起こっている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"79afcc2a-6c81-4934-b82e-eef88f2ad3df\" id=\"79afcc2a-6c81-4934-b82e-eef88f2ad3df\"\u003E　貿易の自由化の明らかなメリットが声高に語られる一方で、一部の業種、企業、あるいは社会集団にかなりの不利益を与えてしまうというデメリットが見られる。そのため、それらを把握したり記録したりするのは困難で、補償対策も行きとどかない。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"5baeeb56-b357-421b-adcd-b29e0caf709a\" id=\"5baeeb56-b357-421b-adcd-b29e0caf709a\"\u003E　したがって、批判的な研究者たちが指摘してきたように、各国の輸出入の対外価格の変動に対する実質的な反応を正確に測ることはほぼ不可能である（本章の頭で述べたように自由貿易の優位性に関するマンキューの論拠を思い出してほしい）。実際の同じデータから異なる結果が導き出される場合があることからも明らかだろう。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"730e4fcc-0ee1-4f1a-a630-4f6bc7bf9990\" id=\"730e4fcc-0ee1-4f1a-a630-4f6bc7bf9990\"\u003E　雇用の調整についても同様だ。現実社会では自動的で迅速な雇用調整などできるわけがなく、新たな雇用などまったく生まれない、あるいは創出に長い時間がかかることがわかっている。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch3 name=\"b67f7bd5-72d7-4a6a-b2de-f4c38697a02f\" id=\"b67f7bd5-72d7-4a6a-b2de-f4c38697a02f\"\u003E3つの問題\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\u003Cp name=\"cd07108d-1742-45a0-a211-be7190f2af8d\" id=\"cd07108d-1742-45a0-a211-be7190f2af8d\"\u003E　さらに、これらの理論では、基本的な3つの問題が考慮されていない。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"2bf71428-6ee2-460e-8e2a-3bb99cabc2c2\" id=\"2bf71428-6ee2-460e-8e2a-3bb99cabc2c2\"\u003E　1つ目に、国際貿易では、ある経済圏と別の経済圏とが互いに影響を与え合うわけではないので、マンキューが教科書で述べているような「国内価格」と「国外価格」という考え方は非現実的でばかげている。生産者同士あるいは企業同士が競争するわけではなく、実際は、規則をつくり価格やコストに影響を与えたりして絶えず貿易の条件を定めようとする政府と企業とが闘っているのだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"ed406b08-5ab9-45b6-9f84-76b4ce9c9144\" id=\"ed406b08-5ab9-45b6-9f84-76b4ce9c9144\"\u003E　2つ目の問題は、ある程度海外に貿易の門戸を開いた後に何が起こりえるのかを考慮していないことにある。つまり、一方では、このような理論に沿った政策がもたらすメリットとデメリットについて詳細な検討を行っておらず、もう一方では、海外との取引条件が変わることによってその経済圏が得るもの、あるいは失うもの（機会費用）についても考慮していない。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"92c53fab-cd6b-457f-b280-637eee7741e3\" id=\"92c53fab-cd6b-457f-b280-637eee7741e3\"\u003E　そしてなによりも、国際貿易のメリットを低価格という効率性に限定している点だ。保護主義に対して貿易の自由化がもたらすメリットとデメリットを本当に見きわめたいのであれば、注視しなくてはいけないのは価格だけではない。雇用、生活状況、人権といった定性的な効果も考慮に入れることが不可欠だ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"f037ea72-0ceb-4bfa-9e7a-a6da07a31561\" id=\"f037ea72-0ceb-4bfa-9e7a-a6da07a31561\"\u003E　最後の3つ目に、これらのモデルの基本的な欠点を忘れてはならない。それは、自由貿易というシステムのメリットについて、貿易をしない場合と比較して推論している点だ。この経済理論が唯一明らかにしていることは、「国家にとって他の経済圏と貿易することは自給自足体制よりも有益だ」という当たり前のことでしかない。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"7f7e38be-75e4-4499-ac18-58dfb6ba8a70\" id=\"7f7e38be-75e4-4499-ac18-58dfb6ba8a70\"\u003E　しかも、その「最大のメリット」の唯一の根拠を財やサービスの価格としているが、それも現実には成立しない条件下におけるものだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"a7fdecfd-eebf-40b5-835e-97a03c01611e\" id=\"a7fdecfd-eebf-40b5-835e-97a03c01611e\"\u003E　要するに、実際には、いわゆる保護貿易よりも自由貿易のほうが経済全体にとって有益だということは証明できていない。自由貿易のおかげで、経済効率が高まったり経済格差がなくなったりしたとか、地球環境や人類の福祉が向上したといった事実は明らかにされていない。むしろ、これまでの歴史はそれとは反対の結果を示している。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch3 name=\"2e281e7b-2a9b-48d1-acea-95891b8fda08\" id=\"2e281e7b-2a9b-48d1-acea-95891b8fda08\"\u003Eそのウソがどんな結果をもたらすか？\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\u003Cp name=\"1bb9cdb6-b933-4c6d-bb07-562a898c4353\" id=\"1bb9cdb6-b933-4c6d-bb07-562a898c4353\"\u003E　本章で見てきたようなウソが経済政策に及ぼす結果は多様で、人々の生活にも大きな影響を与える。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"b262ca83-a036-4579-8c77-4cb301cbe49a\" id=\"b262ca83-a036-4579-8c77-4cb301cbe49a\"\u003E　まず、豊かな福祉社会を実現するには、国益を守るルールなしの自由な国際市場にすればいいと人々が信じるようになる。そうなると、たまたま海外貿易のために門戸を大きく開いたタイミングで景気が良くなった場合、それが実は何十年にもわたるそれまでの国家による産業保護の成果だったり、自由貿易開始後に打撃を受けた産業分野や人々を保護する財政政策のおかげであったりしても、その事実は隠れてしまう。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"45c95d2f-788f-4d03-a2b5-166e41752a4f\" id=\"45c95d2f-788f-4d03-a2b5-166e41752a4f\"\u003E　にもかかわらず、国際的な経済団体や大国が弱い国に対して貿易開放を促す際には、公共部門の縮小を強いたり、税収減につながる他の措置をとらせたりすることによって、彼らの両手を縛り、そうした財政政策の可能性を制限することが多い。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Ch3 name=\"75265eda-80ca-4bce-a1f8-3ac249c65c12\" id=\"75265eda-80ca-4bce-a1f8-3ac249c65c12\"\u003E無計画の貿易開放は格差を広げる\u003C\u002Fh3\u003E\u003Cp name=\"18fb3a1f-19dd-4967-9e44-ecf673df233f\" id=\"18fb3a1f-19dd-4967-9e44-ecf673df233f\"\u003E　いずれにせよ、ここまで見てきたとおり、こうした自由化措置はひどく不均衡なものだ。より貧しく弱い国々に自由貿易を強いながら、富裕国は自国を保護する政策をとるからだ。それが世界における格差を広げている。富める国とそうでない国の間の格差だけでなく、富裕国の国内でも格差が大きくなる。なぜなら、同時に、自由貿易によって得た利益を平等に分ける富の再分配政策が弱まるからだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"dd071c58-e762-452b-a7f6-7b097eee26d7\" id=\"dd071c58-e762-452b-a7f6-7b097eee26d7\"\u003E　国境を広く開放して海外製品を受け入れることは、どの国や経済圏にとっても有益だとしながらも、実際にはそれをより貧しい国だけに強いる。それは、もともと不平等が存在するにもかかわらずあたかも平等と見せかけることにつながり、最悪の場合、その不平等と不均衡を絶えず倍増させていくことになる。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"151dc662-367b-411f-8f35-63e21087d50b\" id=\"151dc662-367b-411f-8f35-63e21087d50b\"\u003E　さまざまな研究が指摘してきたように、こうした国際貿易は勝者と敗者を生み、そのような不均衡がつくりだす不平等や経済危機を避けるための補償や対策が同時に進められることはない。そして、ジョン・メイドリーが示したように、特に貿易の自由化、食の安全、貧困という3つの関係性を見る限り、勝者よりも敗者の数のほうが多くなる。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"2b192bae-c75b-4caf-918b-94eaab803644\" id=\"2b192bae-c75b-4caf-918b-94eaab803644\"\u003E　結局、国際貿易が活発であればあるほど経済全体にメリットがあるとか、保護策なしの貿易はすべての企業に利益をもたらし、経済の安定、より良い暮らし、人々の満足度の改善につながる確実な対策であるという主張は誤りで、不誠実でしかないのだ。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"b6c2160e-0410-4a95-a1d7-fd06b487b054\" id=\"b6c2160e-0410-4a95-a1d7-fd06b487b054\"\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003Eホント：適切な保護貿易が経済をよくする\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"52890be7-eb32-445a-a540-c9331f2b76db\" id=\"52890be7-eb32-445a-a540-c9331f2b76db\"\u003E＜本稿は『Econofakes エコノフェイクス――トーレス教授の経済教室』（サンマーク出版）から一部抜粋して再構成したものです＞\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\u003Cp name=\"12ffeecc-22b0-4d9e-805d-fa2cf8868b91\" id=\"12ffeecc-22b0-4d9e-805d-fa2cf8868b91\"\u003E（編集：サンマーク出版　Sunmark Web編集部）\u003Cbr\u003EPhoto by 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href=\"https:\u002F\u002Famzn.to\u002F40yXtmg\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\n\u003Cstrong class=\"external-article-widget-title\"\u003E\nＥｃｏｎｏｆａｋｅｓ　エコノフェイクス\n\u003C\u002Fstrong\u003E\n\u003Cem class=\"external-article-widget-description\"\u003E\n\n\u003C\u002Fem\u003E\n\u003Cem class=\"external-article-widget-url\"\u003E\namzn.to\n\u003C\u002Fem\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"external-article-widget-price\"\u003E\n\u003Cem class=\"external-article-widget-regularprice\"\u003E1,584\u003Cspan class=\"external-article-widget-currency\"\u003E円\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\u003C\u002Fem\u003E\n\u003Cspan class=\"external-article-widget-update\"\u003E\n(2024年11月06日 13:18時点\n\u003Cspan class=\"external-article-widget-disclaimer\"\u003E詳しくはこちら)\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"external-article-widget-button\"\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\"a-button a-button--type_primary a-button--width_fit a-button--size_small\" data-size=\"small\" 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