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10.5596C12.2636 10.5596 12.1176 10.349 12.0783 9.37285H14.4503C14.9976 9.37285 15.2418 9.15664 15.2418 8.67213C15.2418 7.64237 15.0266 6.27171 13.165 6.27171C11.5931 6.27171 10.8919 7.12946 10.8919 9.05247C10.8919 10.9297 11.5452 11.6281 13.3016 11.6281C14.0318 11.6281 14.6097 11.5152 14.8366 11.4111C14.9811 11.3495 15.1138 11.2572 15.1138 11V10.8122C15.113 10.5699 14.9748 10.4239 14.7432 10.4239Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M12.0846 8.41359C12.1301 7.57715 12.4701 7.20312 13.1831 7.20312H13.1838C13.8614 7.20312 14.1661 7.56532 14.1975 8.41202L12.0846 8.41359Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M31.4197 13.2932H25.348L23.7136 18.0002H20.0957L26.4898 0.198242H30.7749L37.0436 18.0002H33.1032L31.4197 13.2932ZM28.4689 3.60924L26.1405 10.5302H30.6719L28.4689 3.60924Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M49.178 18L45.1885 11.925H42.4616V18H38.9421V0.621C38.9421 0.621 41.1944 0 45.2332 0C49.8676 0 52.6393 1.62 52.6393 5.2515C52.6393 8.9595 50.3601 10.5525 48.7258 11.277L53.3826 18H49.178ZM42.466 9.1125H46.4556C48.1661 8.3925 48.9586 7.47 48.9586 5.6025C48.9586 3.6585 47.5706 2.889 45.2914 2.889C43.8541 2.889 42.466 3.1365 42.466 3.1365V9.1125Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M55.4691 17.9996V0.24707H67.5319V3.25757H59.0109V7.71257H66.3677V10.6016H59.0109V14.9846H67.7558V17.9996H55.4691Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M70.3842 17.9996V0.24707H82.4469V3.25757H73.926V7.71257H81.2828V10.6016H73.926V14.9846H82.6708V17.9996H70.3842Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M88.7872 17.9996H85.2947V0.24707H88.5633L97.1111 11.4746V0.24707H100.631V17.9996H97.9798L88.7872 6.20057V17.9996Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M113.831 13.2932H107.759L106.129 18.0002H102.511L108.901 0.198242H113.186L119.455 18.0002H115.514L113.831 13.2932ZM110.884 3.60924L108.556 10.5302H113.087L110.884 3.60924Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><p class="_1m3quf82 fck75q2">Sarjat. 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class="aw-1ag6w51 nvljT"><a href="/web/20240312174311/https://yle.fi/t/18-334977/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Venäjän hyökkäys" class="aw-l7odld jXfkxq">Venäjän hyökkäys</a></div><h1 class="sc-aXZVg cZXpWU yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--1">Tämä on syy, miksi Venäjän hyökkäys Itä-Ukrainassa pysähtyi: Venäjä pelkää epäonnistumista ennen presidentinvaaleja</h1><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-5vja16 jxdWmn eeXVLF yle__article__paragraph">Zelenskyi kertoi Ukrainan asevoimien pysäyttäneen Venäjän etenemisen Itä-Ukrainassa. Asiantuntijat arvioivat tilannetta.</p><div class="aw-e30oo3 blLbha"></div><figure class="aw-u5oz0a clzEhy yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20078766","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311/https://schema.org","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","description":"Ukrainalaiset sotilaat ampuivat haupitsilla Avdijivkan suunnalla 27. helmikuuta.","copyrightHolder":"Vitalii Nosach / EPA","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.523220747889023,c_fill,g_faces,h_503,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-125221165e2db0e1ee91","keywords":"Avdiivka,Аvdіjivkа,Аvdіjivkа,Ukraina,Ukrainan kriisi 2022,Venäjän hyökkäys Ukrainaan 2022"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic gkPscr"><div class="aw-1qvmjke bKIcxT"><div class="aw-1njknqq euollB"><picture><source data-testid="source-for-S" media="(max-width: 767px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.523220747889023,c_fill,g_faces,h_503,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1709366227/39-125221165e2db0e1ee91 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.523220747889023,c_fill,g_faces,h_503,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1709366227/39-125221165e2db0e1ee91 1x"/><source data-testid="source-for-M" media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.523220747889023,c_fill,g_faces,h_417,w_636/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1709366227/39-125221165e2db0e1ee91 2x, https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.523220747889023,c_fill,g_faces,h_417,w_636/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1709366227/39-125221165e2db0e1ee91 1x"/><img alt="Ukrainalaiset sotilaat ampuvat haupitsilla Avdiivkan suunnalla." src="https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311im_/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/c_crop,h_2841,w_5051,x_0,y_0/ar_1.7777777777777777,c_fill,g_faces,h_431,w_767/dpr_1.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/v1709366227/39-125221165e2db0e1ee91" class="aw-1l9m598 bTKagC"/></picture></div><div class="aw-45s348 glxCAO"><button aria-disabled="false" class="Buttonstyles__ButtonBase-sc-17sr1bx-0 Buttonstyles__ButtonSecondary-sc-17sr1bx-2 blJlbw iLYbQX"><span class="Buttonstyles__TextWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-7 kWJvkV yds-button__content">Avaa kuvien katselu</span></button></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 iEoONW"><span>Ukrainalaiset sotilaat ampuivat haupitsilla Avdijivkan suunnalla 27. helmikuuta.</span><span> Kuva: Vitalii Nosach / EPA</span></figcaption></figure><div class="aw-1wk2icm iaIVgA"><div class="aw-qww0lc eFtfQt"><div class="aw-x5rn7a iKNQRH"><span class="aw-z7z0zi hEWAhM">Mikko Leppänen</span></div></div></div><div class="aw-1hwlbbb iumvhG"><div class="aw-64d2lh cPAYLb"><div class="aw-kzjed4 dgiUVP yle__article__date"><time class="aw-lsqctp jPSFYl yle__article__date--published" datetime="2024-03-12T15:36:12+02:00">15:36</time><span aria-hidden="true" class="aw-131q90r bsXkQk">•</span><time class="aw-lsqctp jPSFYl yle__article__date--modified" datetime="2024-03-12T16:19:51+02:00">Päivitetty 16:19</time></div></div><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311/https://yle.onelink.me/46xJ/07zyq6zz?deep_link_sub1=74-20078766" class="aw-pqa0kd GtYAc">Avaa Yle-sovelluksessa<svg width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M15 2a1 1 0 1 0 0 2h3.586l-9.293 9.293a1 1 0 1 0 1.414 1.414L20 5.414V9a1 1 0 1 0 2 0V3a1 1 0 0 0-1-1h-6ZM5 7a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v11a1 1 0 0 0 1 1h11a1 1 0 0 0 1-1v-6a1 1 0 0 1 2 0v6a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H5a3 3 0 0 1-3-3V8a3 3 0 0 1 3-3h6a1 1 0 1 1 0 2H5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></a><div class="aw-itub5i eehAxh"><div><button aria-label="Jaa artikkeli" aria-disabled="false" id="share-menu-button" aria-haspopup="true" class="Buttonstyles__ButtonBase-sc-17sr1bx-0 Buttonstyles__ButtonText-sc-17sr1bx-3 jrqhnK kvhUhF"><span class="Buttonstyles__iconSize-sc-17sr1bx-4 Buttonstyles__IconWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-6 cazOWd dPcqZv yds-button__icon"><svg width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" aria-hidden="true" class="aw-wi5224 fZrvxl"><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M12.43 3.078a1 1 0 0 1 1.087.207l8.182 8a1 1 0 0 1 0 1.43l-8.182 8a1 1 0 0 1-1.7-.715v-3.855h-.008c-1.968.029-3.972.988-5.827 2.417L3.61 20.389a1 1 0 0 1-1.592-.981l.5-2.597.014-.062c.23-.883.58-1.911.986-2.865.4-.94.88-1.876 1.387-2.532.964-1.246 2.07-2.138 3.405-2.709 1.057-.45 2.219-.684 3.508-.76V4a1 1 0 0 1 .612-.922Zm1.388 3.298v3.48h-1c-1.529 0-2.727.202-3.722.627-.984.42-1.826 1.081-2.609 2.093-.351.454-.753 1.206-1.129 2.09a19.46 19.46 0 0 0-.874 2.525l.277-.213c2.023-1.559 4.445-2.798 7.028-2.833h2.029v3.479L19.57 12l-5.752-5.624Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></span><span class="Buttonstyles__TextWrapper-sc-17sr1bx-7 WDnuQ yds-button__text">Jaa</span></button></div></div></div></header><section class="yle__article__content"><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Ukrainan asevoimat ovat pysäyttäneet Venäjän etenemisen Itä-Ukrainassa, kehui presidentti <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Volodymyr Zelenskyi</strong> maanantaina ranskalaisen BMFTV-televisiokanavan haastattelussa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Zelenskyi myös sanoi, että Ukrainan armeijan tilanne on nyt parempi kuin viime kuukausina.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Suomalaiset asiantuntijat arvioivat Ylelle, että Zelenskyi on oikeassa siinä, että Venäjän suhteellisen nopea eteneminen länteen Avdijivkan kaupungin valtaamisen jälkeen on nyt pysähtynyt.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Pysähdyksen syynä ei välttämättä ole pelkästään Ukrainan asevoimien menestys.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Tauko Venäjän hyökkäyksessä johtuu viikonloppuna järjestettävistä Venäjän presidentinvaaleista, arvioi Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun erikoistutkija <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Pentti Forsström</strong>.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Sotatilanteessa pidetään tauko, ettei mitään vakavaa pääse tapahtumaan, Forsström sanoo.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Hän uskoo, että vaalien jälkeen Venäjä alkaa pyrkiä jonkinlaiseen ratkaisuun rintamalla, luultavasti kevään ja kesän aikana.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Ukraina on laittanut alueelle parhaita joukkojaan hidastaakseen venäläisten etenemistä, sanoo sotatieteiden dosentti <strong class="aw-ak79eh hgoSon yle__article__strong">Ilmari Käihkö</strong>. Hän lisää, että Ukraina on myös pyrkinyt linnoittamaan näitä alueita vaikeuttaakseen Venäjän etenemistä.</p><h2 class="sc-gEvEer kGTkjt yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Venäjä etsii heikkoja kohtia</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Käihkö muistuttaa, että rintamalinja on tuhat kilometriä pitkä, eikä Ukraina pysty kaikkialla rakentamaan nopeasti linnoitteita.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Siksi Venäjä tekee pienemmillä yksiköillä hyökkäyksiä ja etsii heikkoja kohtia Ukrainan puolustuslinjoista, Käihkö sanoo. Jos tällainen heikko paikka löytyy, Venäjä voisi keskittää alueelle joukkojaan ja yrittää päästä Ukrainan puolustuksesta läpi.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Tällä hetkellä venäläisten miesvahvuus ja voimavarat eivät ole sellaisia, että ne riittäisivät ajamaan ylivoimalla läpi Ukrainan puolustuslinjoista, Forsström sanoo.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Siksi hän pitää mahdollisena, että presidentinvaalien jälkeen Venäjä alkaa voimistaa liikekannallepanoa sekä hakee tuhansia sotilaita reservistä ja kouluttaa heidät rintamalle.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Tutkijat katsovat, että Ukraina tarvitsisi nyt kipeästi lisää aseapua ja materiaalitukea lännestä. Muuten rintamatilanteen kehitys vaikuttaa Ukrainan kannalta hyvin vakavalta.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Jos Ukraina ei tule lähikuukausina saamaan enemmän sotilaallista tukea, sitten on perusteltua kysyä, onko Ukrainalla resursseja puolustamiseen, Käihkö toteaa.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Käihkö arvioi, että oletettavasti Venäjän hyökkäykset tulevat jatkumaan. Hänen mukaansa Ukrainalla on nyt tarve esittää hyviä uutisia, jotta Ukrainan tukijamaat jatkaisivat ja lisäisivät tukeaan.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Pessimismi voi johtaa tilanteeseen, jossa tukijat alkavat miettiä, kannattaako Ukrainaa enää tukea, jos maalla ei ole voitonmahdollisuuksia, Käihkö sanoo.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Käihkön mukaan Ukrainalla on tällä hetkellä kolme ongelmaa. Maa kärsii ammus- ja materiaalipulasta, miehistöpulasta ja se aloitti puolustuslinnoitusten rakentamisen liian myöhään.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Ukraina on riippuvainen ulkopuolisesta aseavusta ja sitä maa pyrkii ratkomaan diplomatian keinoin. Linnoittaminen ja liikekannallepano sen sijaan ovat Ukrainan poliittisia päätöksiä, Käihkö sanoo.</p><figure class="aw-u5oz0a crkERF yle__article__figure"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@id":"74-20078766","@context":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311/https://schema.org","video":{"@type":"VideoObject","description":"Ukrainan armeija alaisuudessa toimiva venäläistaistelijoista koostuva Siperian pataljoona on julkaissut videon, jonka se sanoo kuvaavan hyökkäystä rajan taakse Venäjälle.","name":"Ukrainan puolella taistelevat venäläisryhmät sanovat hyökkäävänsä taas rajan yli","thumbnailUrl":"https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311/https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/ar_1.3333333333333333,c_fill,g_faces,h_575,w_767/dpr_2.0/q_auto:eco/f_auto/fl_lossy/39-42973859c268d07fd2f","uploadDate":"2024-03-12T12:01:27+02:00"}}</script><div class="aw-1a00tic gqXpTi"><div><div data-testid="video-player" class="aw-1kfkhk6 kyBcqJ"></div></div></div><figcaption class="aw-kr26k0 iEoONW"><span>Ukrainan armeija alaisuudessa toimiva venäläistaistelijoista koostuva Siperian pataljoona on julkaissut videon, jonka se sanoo kuvaavan hyökkäystä rajan taakse Venäjälle.</span></figcaption></figure><h2 class="sc-gEvEer kGTkjt yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--2">Ukraina yrittää nostaa sodan hintaa Venäjälle</h2><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Kaksi Ukrainan puolella taistelevaa venäläisistä koostuvaa taistelijaryhmää on kertonut sosiaalisessa mediassa, että ne ovat aloittaneet hyökkäyksen Ukrainasta käsin Venäjän puolelle.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Venäjä on myöntänyt, että se on torjunut rajan yli tehtyjä hyökkäyksiä Belgogradin ja Kurskin alueilla.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Ilmari Käihkö sanoo, että tällaiset iskut eivät ole yllätys. Ukraina on aiemmin uhannut levittää sotaa Venäjän maaperälle, jos Venäjä jatkaa ilmaiskuja ukrainalaisiin kaupunkeihin.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">– Ukraina nyt yrittää nostaa sodan hintaa Venäjälle, ja sitä kautta vaikuttaa Venäjän halukkuuteen jatkaa tätä sotaa, Käihkö sanoo.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Ukrainan sotilastiedustelun tiedottaja sanoi ukrainalaiselle 24 Channel -televisiokanavalle, että venäläistaistelijoiden ryhmät toteuttavat operaatiota Venäjän alueella itsenäisesti, kertoo uutistoimisto Reuters.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Käihkö puolestaan sanoo, että venäläistaistelijoista koostuvat yksiköt toimivat ainakin jossain määrin Ukrainan asevoimien ja poliittisen johdon alaisuudessa. Siksi hänen mukaansa ei pidä olettaa, että nämä Ukrainan alueelta käsin toimivat ryhmät olisivat itsenäisiä toimijoita.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Käihkö arvioi, että Ukrainan kannalta sitä voi pitää onnistumisena, jos Venäjän puolella rajaa ihmiset joutuvat pakenemaan kodeistaan ryhmien hyökkäyksen takia. Tämä nostaa sodan hintaa Venäjän hallinnolle.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Käihkö pitää toiveajatteluna, että tällaiset ryhmät voisivat valloittaa maa-alueita Venäjältä. Todennäköisesti hyökkäykset Venäjän maaperälle tulevat olemaan nopeita iskuja ja sen jälkeen perääntymisiä.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Pentti Forsström pitää Ukrainaa tukevien venäläistaistelijoiden iskuja merkkinä siitä, mitä Venäjän yhteiskunnassa tapahtuu.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Hän toteaa, että kaikki venäläiset eivät ajattele sodasta samalla tavalla kuin Venäjän valtionjohto.</p><p class="aw-1gybjub aw-1p7kakr jxdWmn ilDxnw yle__article__paragraph">Forsström painottaa, ettei hän tiedä millaisista osastoista ja miesmääristä Ukrainaa tukevissa venäläistaistelijoissa on kyse. Sitä hän pitää kuitenkin varmana, että näillä taistelijoilla ei ole enää asiaa Venäjälle, ellei maan hallinto muutu.</p></section><footer class="yle__article__footer"><h2 class="aw-zh6d69 dMYkJU">Aiheesta enemmän: Paketissa 1 linkki</h2><h2 class="sc-eqUAAy ctFUoD yle__article__heading yle__article__heading--3" aria-hidden="true">Aiheesta enemmän</h2><div class="yle__article__links" role="list" aria-label="Aiheesta enemmän"><div role="listitem" class="aw-124ec9l cFgRwb"><div class="aw-yq4wj5 hkKela"><div class="aw-fou4nx hULxUh"><div class="aw-aqrehu kskGQO"><div class="aw-ej1jxx Vjwex"><a href="/web/20240312174311/https://yle.fi/t/18-334977/fi" aria-label="Lisää artikkeleita aiheesta Venäjän hyökkäys" class="aw-l7odld jXfkxq">Venäjän hyökkäys</a></div><h3 class="aw-x9ikft cGmEmT"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240312174311/https://yle.fi/a/74-20010573" class="aw-3ocnud eBKakF">Ukrainan puolella taistelevat venäläisryhmät väittävät vallanneensa kylän Venäjän 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<script type="text/javascript">window.__INITIAL__STATE__={"pageData":{"article":{"id":"74-20078766","language":"fi","url":{"full":"https:\u002F\u002Fweb.archive.org\u002Fweb\u002F20240312174311\u002Fhttps:\u002F\u002Fyle.fi\u002Fa\u002F74-20078766"},"headline":{"image":{"alt":"Ukrainalaiset sotilaat ampuvat haupitsilla Avdiivkan suunnalla.","source":"Vitalii Nosach \u002F EPA","aspect":1.523220747889023,"caption":"Ukrainalaiset sotilaat ampuivat haupitsilla Avdijivkan suunnalla 27. helmikuuta.","id":"39-125221165e2db0e1ee91","type":"image","alts":[{"language":"fin","value":"Ukrainalaiset sotilaat ampuvat haupitsilla Avdiivkan 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Asiantuntijat arvioivat tilannetta.","type":"text"},{"text":"Ukrainan asevoimat ovat pysäyttäneet Venäjän etenemisen Itä-Ukrainassa, kehui presidentti **Volodymyr Zelenskyi** maanantaina ranskalaisen BMFTV-televisiokanavan haastattelussa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Zelenskyi myös sanoi, että Ukrainan armeijan tilanne on nyt parempi kuin viime kuukausina.","type":"text"},{"text":"Suomalaiset asiantuntijat arvioivat Ylelle, että Zelenskyi on oikeassa siinä, että Venäjän suhteellisen nopea eteneminen länteen Avdijivkan kaupungin valtaamisen jälkeen on nyt pysähtynyt.","type":"text"},{"text":"Pysähdyksen syynä ei välttämättä ole pelkästään Ukrainan asevoimien menestys.","type":"text"},{"text":"Tauko Venäjän hyökkäyksessä johtuu viikonloppuna järjestettävistä Venäjän presidentinvaaleista, arvioi Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun erikoistutkija **Pentti Forsström**.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Sotatilanteessa pidetään tauko, ettei mitään vakavaa pääse tapahtumaan, Forsström sanoo.","type":"text"},{"text":"Hän uskoo, että vaalien jälkeen Venäjä alkaa pyrkiä jonkinlaiseen ratkaisuun rintamalla, luultavasti kevään ja kesän aikana.","type":"text"},{"text":"Ukraina on laittanut alueelle parhaita joukkojaan hidastaakseen venäläisten etenemistä, sanoo sotatieteiden dosentti **Ilmari Käihkö**. Hän lisää, että Ukraina on myös pyrkinyt linnoittamaan näitä alueita vaikeuttaakseen Venäjän etenemistä.","type":"text"},{"text":"Venäjä etsii heikkoja kohtia","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Käihkö muistuttaa, että rintamalinja on tuhat kilometriä pitkä, eikä Ukraina pysty kaikkialla rakentamaan nopeasti linnoitteita.","type":"text"},{"text":"Siksi Venäjä tekee pienemmillä yksiköillä hyökkäyksiä ja etsii heikkoja kohtia Ukrainan puolustuslinjoista, Käihkö sanoo. Jos tällainen heikko paikka löytyy, Venäjä voisi keskittää alueelle joukkojaan ja yrittää päästä Ukrainan puolustuksesta läpi.","type":"text"},{"text":"Tällä hetkellä venäläisten miesvahvuus ja voimavarat eivät ole sellaisia, että ne riittäisivät ajamaan ylivoimalla läpi Ukrainan puolustuslinjoista, Forsström sanoo.","type":"text"},{"text":"Siksi hän pitää mahdollisena, että presidentinvaalien jälkeen Venäjä alkaa voimistaa liikekannallepanoa sekä hakee tuhansia sotilaita reservistä ja kouluttaa heidät rintamalle.","type":"text"},{"text":"Tutkijat katsovat, että Ukraina tarvitsisi nyt kipeästi lisää aseapua ja materiaalitukea lännestä. Muuten rintamatilanteen kehitys vaikuttaa Ukrainan kannalta hyvin vakavalta.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Jos Ukraina ei tule lähikuukausina saamaan enemmän sotilaallista tukea, sitten on perusteltua kysyä, onko Ukrainalla resursseja puolustamiseen, Käihkö toteaa.","type":"text"},{"text":"Käihkö arvioi, että oletettavasti Venäjän hyökkäykset tulevat jatkumaan. Hänen mukaansa Ukrainalla on nyt tarve esittää hyviä uutisia, jotta Ukrainan tukijamaat jatkaisivat ja lisäisivät tukeaan.","type":"text"},{"text":"Pessimismi voi johtaa tilanteeseen, jossa tukijat alkavat miettiä, kannattaako Ukrainaa enää tukea, jos maalla ei ole voitonmahdollisuuksia, Käihkö sanoo.","type":"text"},{"text":"Käihkön mukaan Ukrainalla on tällä hetkellä kolme ongelmaa. Maa kärsii ammus- ja materiaalipulasta, miehistöpulasta ja se aloitti puolustuslinnoitusten rakentamisen liian myöhään.","type":"text"},{"text":"Ukraina on riippuvainen ulkopuolisesta aseavusta ja sitä maa pyrkii ratkomaan diplomatian keinoin. Linnoittaminen ja liikekannallepano sen sijaan ovat Ukrainan poliittisia päätöksiä, Käihkö sanoo.","type":"text"},{"caption":"Ukrainan armeija alaisuudessa toimiva venäläistaistelijoista koostuva Siperian pataljoona on julkaissut videon, jonka se sanoo kuvaavan hyökkäystä rajan taakse Venäjälle.","type":"video","id":"1-68344726","programResponse":{"series":{"title":{"main":{"swe":"Nyhetsvideor","fin":"Uutisvideot"}},"image":{"cover":{"fin":{"type":"Image","id":"13-1-1255967-1677743590609","version":1710262852}},"main":{"fin":{"type":"Image","id":"13-1-1255967-1684137541041","version":1710262852}}}},"publications":[{"tags":["archive"],"service":{"type":"Service","id":"yle-areena"},"publisher":{"type":"Service","id":"yle-areena"},"startTime":"2024-03-12T12:01:27+02:00","geoRestriction":"None","type":"Publication","id":"4-68344727","kind":"Ondemand","protectionLevel":{"key":"none","type":"ContentProtectionPolicy","id":"22-0"},"media":{"videoTrack":{"format":"HD","aspectRatio":"4:3","type":"VideoTrack","duration":"PT30S"},"downloadable":false,"type":"Video","duration":"PT30S","id":"67-63e5f8f09c944ec99d6807d0133948aa","available":true}}],"title":{"main":{"fin":"Ukrainan puolella taistelevat venäläisryhmät sanovat hyökkäävänsä taas rajan yli"}},"id":"1-68344726","image":{"main":{"fin":{"type":"Image","id":"13-1-68344726-1710240161717","version":1710241092}}}}},{"text":"Ukraina yrittää nostaa sodan hintaa Venäjälle","level":2,"type":"heading"},{"text":"Kaksi Ukrainan puolella taistelevaa venäläisistä koostuvaa taistelijaryhmää on kertonut sosiaalisessa mediassa, että ne ovat aloittaneet hyökkäyksen Ukrainasta käsin Venäjän puolelle.","type":"text"},{"text":"Venäjä on myöntänyt, että se on torjunut rajan yli tehtyjä hyökkäyksiä Belgogradin ja Kurskin alueilla.","type":"text"},{"text":"Ilmari Käihkö sanoo, että tällaiset iskut eivät ole yllätys. Ukraina on aiemmin uhannut levittää sotaa Venäjän maaperälle, jos Venäjä jatkaa ilmaiskuja ukrainalaisiin kaupunkeihin.","type":"text"},{"text":"– Ukraina nyt yrittää nostaa sodan hintaa Venäjälle, ja sitä kautta vaikuttaa Venäjän halukkuuteen jatkaa tätä sotaa, Käihkö sanoo.","type":"text"},{"text":"Ukrainan sotilastiedustelun tiedottaja sanoi ukrainalaiselle 24 Channel -televisiokanavalle, että venäläistaistelijoiden ryhmät toteuttavat operaatiota Venäjän alueella itsenäisesti, kertoo uutistoimisto Reuters.","type":"text"},{"text":"Käihkö puolestaan sanoo, että venäläistaistelijoista koostuvat yksiköt toimivat ainakin jossain määrin Ukrainan asevoimien ja poliittisen johdon alaisuudessa. Siksi hänen mukaansa ei pidä olettaa, että nämä Ukrainan alueelta käsin toimivat ryhmät olisivat itsenäisiä toimijoita.","type":"text"},{"text":"Käihkö arvioi, että Ukrainan kannalta sitä voi pitää onnistumisena, jos Venäjän puolella rajaa ihmiset joutuvat pakenemaan kodeistaan ryhmien hyökkäyksen takia. Tämä nostaa sodan hintaa Venäjän hallinnolle.","type":"text"},{"text":"Käihkö pitää toiveajatteluna, että tällaiset ryhmät voisivat valloittaa maa-alueita Venäjältä. Todennäköisesti hyökkäykset Venäjän maaperälle tulevat olemaan nopeita iskuja ja sen jälkeen perääntymisiä.","type":"text"},{"text":"Pentti Forsström pitää Ukrainaa tukevien venäläistaistelijoiden iskuja merkkinä siitä, mitä Venäjän yhteiskunnassa tapahtuu.","type":"text"},{"text":"Hän toteaa, että kaikki venäläiset eivät ajattele sodasta samalla tavalla kuin Venäjän valtionjohto.","type":"text"},{"text":"Forsström painottaa, ettei hän tiedä millaisista osastoista ja miesmääristä Ukrainaa tukevissa venäläistaistelijoissa on kyse. 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