Palantir's recent drop: Minor retracement or red flag?: By Prakash Bhudia

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class="article-authorDetails-bio"> <div class="article-authorDetails-bio-image"> <a id="ctl00_ctl00_body_main_BlogProfileForm_hBlogger" aria-label="link to author: Prakash Bhudia" href="/bloggers/161197"><div class="blue-tick blue-tick-bottom-9"><img id="ctl00_ctl00_body_main_BlogProfileForm_iBlogger" class="card-img-round" src="../../finextra-images/member_photos/thumb_161197_prakash_bhudia_19.jpg" alt="Prakash Bhudia" style="border-width:0px;" /><div class="blue-tick-svg"></div></div></a> </div> <div class="article-authorDetails-bio-desc" > <div class="article-authorDetails-bioGroup"> <div class="article-authorDetails-bio-desc-name"><span class="h4">Prakash Bhudia</span></div> <div class="article-authorDetails-bio-desc-jobTitle">HOD – Product & Growth</div> <span id="ctl00_ctl00_body_main_BlogProfileForm_lbCompany" class="article-authorDetails-bio-desc-companyName">Deriv</span> </div> <div id="ctl00_ctl00_body_main_BlogProfileForm_dAuthorDetails" 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Often considered a darling of the data analytics and AI revolution, the company has consistently outpaced major players, even leaving Nvidia in its wake. But after months of relentless upward momentum, Monday’s sharp decline has left investors wondering: is this just a minor retracement, or a potential red flag for the stock’s future?</span></p> <h2 style="margin-top:18pt; margin-bottom:6pt; text-align:justify"><strong><span style="font-size:16pt; font-family:Arial,sans-serif">A stellar year marred by sudden volatility</span></strong></h2> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Palantir has ridden a </span><a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/11/11/palantir-technologies-can-this-supercharged-artifi/" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(17,85,204); text-decoration:underline">wave</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif"> of optimism, fueled by strong quarterly performances and increasing institutional interest. With hedge funds and major institutions like the Swiss National Bank ramping up their stakes, confidence in Palantir’s future seemed unshakable. However, the stock took an unexpected hit in Monday’s session, mostly erasing its 11% rally from the November 15 session and falling over 7% in 24 hours. </span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">At one point, shares plunged by 10%, dipping below $60 before recovering slightly to close at $60.99. This sharp sell-off has come as a surprise to many, given Palantir’s robust market position and growing appeal among institutional investors. It begs the question: what triggered the sudden dip?</span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">At the heart of this retracement lies a now-deleted X post by Palantir board member and 8VC partner Alex Moore. In a message that sparked backlash, Moore claimed that the company’s recently announced decision to shift its listing from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to the Nasdaq would “force billions in ETF buying.” He went on to state that “everything we do is to reward and support our retail diamondhands following.”</span></p> <p style="text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif"><span style="border:none"><img src="https://lh7-qw.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcf8Ar5SmwKuS9lOy6S8erYtZ0rcSm1cZQ_0q4vtxYe3Wejeb-8QnmxJe5S8-JaULvitzC946SlmiQ-NGxk3J7L5l6bzZO_Sc6aTnaOIiJDDXXThLwqU07oI4AJYOK4mCK42918?key=GK8aDTInFdajWxx3ohXahDXl" width="490" height="164" style="display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto"></span></span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Source: X</span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">While Palantir’s </span><a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241114900497/en/Palantir-Announces-Transfer-of-Stock-Exchange-Listing-to-Nasdaq" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(17,85,204); text-decoration:underline">move</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif"> to Nasdaq, effective November 26, is expected to drive significant capital inflows—likely leading to its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index—Moore’s casual, meme-heavy tone raised concerns. The use of slang like “tendies,” a term popular in stock market meme culture referring to profits, added to the unease. </span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><a href="https://twitter.com/buccocapital/status/1857501476106678582" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(17,85,204); text-decoration:underline">Critics </span></a><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">questioned whether such communication was appropriate for a company primarily dealing with government and military contracts. The incident has also renewed scrutiny over Palantir’s governance and corporate priorities.</span></p> <h2 style="margin-top:18pt; margin-bottom:6pt; text-align:justify"><strong><span style="font-size:16pt; font-family:Arial,sans-serif">A minor pullback or early warning Sign?</span></strong></h2> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Despite yesterday’s turbulence, Palantir has shown signs of stabilisation, reclaiming the $60 support level after briefly dipping below it. </span></p> <p style="text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif"><span style="border:none"><img src="https://lh7-qw.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdOS_WwPwNYDTgDxYTX_XDdpgv1iNEp_it9PrnMC95cJHvIyxVWqWdWBJzgsVm67h4IRcqGvfJsHrvwGZzTzDBBUFjxK-4uUeKfUminrewuLrNcgLWbJJY88_wCIMYVNvcXLKxz?key=GK8aDTInFdajWxx3ohXahDXl" width="518" height="317" style="display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto"></span></span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Source: Google Finance</span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Some investors are brushing off the sell-off as a minor retracement in a stock that has already delivered exceptional gains this year. They argue that the fundamentals remain strong, with Palantir continuing to solidify its position as a leader in AI-driven analytics.</span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Others, however, see the decline as a potential warning sign. With the stock trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 144, questions about </span><a href="https://twitter.com/JakeMRuth/status/1842238308023222571" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(17,85,204); text-decoration:underline">overvaluation</span></a><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif"> are hard to ignore. While Palantir’s growth story is compelling, the sky-high valuation leaves little room for error. Critics worry that the stock may already be pricing in significant future growth, making it vulnerable to any missteps or unmet expectations.</span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Adding to the uncertainty is insider selling by CEO Alex Karp, who offloaded 6.32 million shares worth $398 million on November 13. Although the sale was pre-planned under a 10b5-1 trading plan, it has fueled speculation about whether the stock is nearing its peak. Karp still holds over 107 million shares, but the timing of the sale has not gone unnoticed by wary investors.</span></p> <h2 style="margin-top:18pt; margin-bottom:6pt; text-align:justify"><strong><span style="font-size:16pt; font-family:Arial,sans-serif">Technical analysis: What lies ahead for Palantir?</span></strong></h2> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Is this just a temporary pause in an otherwise stellar year, or a harbinger of more significant issues to come? The answer may hinge on how Palantir navigates its transition to Nasdaq and whether it can continue to deliver results that justify its lofty valuation. </span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">At the time of writing, the stock is seeing a rebound and is back above the $60 mark, with upward pressure still evident. However, the RSI is still deep in the overbought territory and with the price edging back towards the upper Bollinger band, the chart hints at a possible slow down.</span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Buyers could face a hurdle at the $64.84 mark with a further move upwards potentially holding at the $66 mark. On the downside, a slump could hold at the $61.30 and the $58.35 price levels.</span></p> <p style="text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt"><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/17Y1VXCEpqK2VuPOvdsmX6ecBaojFfu_v/view?usp=drive_link" style="text-decoration:none"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(17,85,204); text-decoration:underline"><span style="border:none"><img src="https://lh7-qw.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf-FyeWWlWlfhhxtUblgb0iqkGuf9pwGswYdK7xv_BMhuPb2o2ZCy6CWZzqg9NgaVNrB_ZuPP81AEoHBe2DpGfP6ll9CpXjvOlaGEc6XEafMRcOYRq2cgC7Tk92lUOsatxLbCkNmQ?key=GK8aDTInFdajWxx3ohXahDXl" width="624" height="344" style="display:block; margin-left:auto; margin-right:auto"></span></span></a></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:11pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif">Source: Deriv MT5</span></p> <p style="margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; text-align:justify"> </p> <p style="line-height:1.8; background-color:rgb(255,255,255); margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding-bottom:11pt; text-align:justify"> <em><span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(51,51,51)">Disclaimer:</span></em></p> <p style="line-height:1.8; background-color:rgb(255,255,255); margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding-bottom:11pt; text-align:justify"> <em><span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(51,51,51)">The information contained within this article is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial or investment advice.</span></em></p> <p style="line-height:1.8; background-color:rgb(255,255,255); margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding-bottom:11pt; text-align:justify"> <em><span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(51,51,51)">It is considered accurate and correct at the date of publication. Changes in circumstances after the time of publication may impact the accuracy of the information.</span></em></p> <p style="line-height:1.8; background-color:rgb(255,255,255); margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt; padding-bottom:11pt; text-align:justify"> <em><span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(51,51,51)">The performance figures quoted refer to the past, and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance.</span></em></p> <p style="line-height:1.8; background-color:rgb(255,255,255); margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:11pt; text-align:justify"> <em><span style="font-size:12pt; font-family:'IBM Plex Sans',sans-serif; color:rgb(51,51,51)">No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. 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