IEEE Spectrum: No Joke: Extending Solar's Lease on Life

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testing at NREL.jpg" src="/web/20100701190359im_/http://spectrum.ieee.org/image/1561457"/> <p class="artImgBy"></p> <p class="artImgCptn"></p> </div> <p class="articleBodyTtl"><strong>POSTED BY:</strong> Peter Fairley // Fri, April 09, 2010</p> <div class="articleBody"> <p class="articleBodyPln"><p>A notorious economics joke has optimistic implications for solar energy and its decades-long dreams of matching the cost of the electricity now flowing on power grids -- the vaunted <em>grid parity </em>that is most renewable energy advocates' image of the <em>singularity </em>that will free us from climate change and the anti-democratic effects of centralized power. In the joke an economist, physicist and chemist are stranded, starving, on a remote island when a can of soup washes ashore. The physicist proposes smashing it open with a rock, and the chemist wants to build a fire, heat the can and blast it open. The economist offers a simpler solution: “Let’s assume," he says, "that we have a can opener."</p> <p>The joke isn't the work of a frustrated, underfunded physical scientist, but rather the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100701190359/http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1970/samuelson-bio.html" target="_blank">Nobel-prize winning American economist Paul Samuelson</a>. His joke provides an admission: Economists rely on a bevy of assumptions about people and their tools to reduce a complex world to dollars-and-cents and those assumptions can be wrong, rendering economic theories and projections of limited practical value. Solar advocates have begun to argue that its time for economists to reassess an assumption underpinning cost estimates for power from photovoltaics: the expected lifetime of a solar panel.</p> <p>Accelerated-aging tests of solar panels installed a decade ago with 20-year lifetime warranties predict that 90% will still be operating at the 30-year point according to <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100701190359/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8386460.stm" target="_blank">this BBC report </a>on research by Heinz Ossenbrink at the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100701190359/http://ie.jrc.ec.europa.eu/" target="_blank">EU Energy Institute</a>. Ken Zweibel, director of <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100701190359/http://solar.gwu.edu/" target="_blank">George Washington University's Solar Institute</a>, tells me he's betting that panels produced today warranted for 30 years will be working decades longer--albeit at roughly 30% lower power output. "My belief is that it will be 60 years," says Zweibel. </p> <p>If researchers such as Zweibel and Ossenbrink are right, the up-front cost of producing and installing photovoltaics today should be amortized over a longer useful lifetime, and a much larger number of kilowatt-hours of power generation. That will lower the estimated cost per kilowatt-hour. Combined with remarkable reductions in manufacturing costs achieved in recent years -- a 40% reduction since just the middle of last year according to authors from Applied Materials <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100701190359/http://www.electroiq.com/index/display/photovoltaics-article-display/6451454559/articles/Photovoltaics-World/volume-2010/issue-2/features/towards-grid_parity.html" target="_blank">writing last month in <em>Photovoltaics World </em>magazine</a> -- Ossenbrink predicts that solar will hit grid-parity across Europe within a decade.</p> <p>That would be one heck of a can opener.</p></p> </div> </div> <br class="clearleft"/> <div id="artFoot"> <div> <p class="tags"><strong>TAGS:</strong> <a href="/web/20100701190359/http://spectrum.ieee.org/tag/grid+parity">grid parity</a> // <a href="/web/20100701190359/http://spectrum.ieee.org/tag/photovoltaics">photovoltaics</a> // <a href="/web/20100701190359/http://spectrum.ieee.org/tag/renewable+energy">renewable energy</a> // <a href="/web/20100701190359/http://spectrum.ieee.org/tag/solar+energy">solar energy</a> // <a href="/web/20100701190359/http://spectrum.ieee.org/tag/solar+power">solar power</a> </div> </div> </div>  </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20100701190359js_/http://spectrum.ieee.org/js/prototype/prototype.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20100701190359js_/http://spectrum.ieee.org/js/prototype/scriptaculous.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20100701190359js_/http://spectrum.ieee.org/js/prototype/builder.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20100701190359js_/http://spectrum.ieee.org/js/prototype/controls.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20100701190359js_/http://spectrum.ieee.org/js/prototype/effects.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20100701190359js_/http://spectrum.ieee.org/js/prototype/slider.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="/web/20100701190359js_/http://spectrum.ieee.org/js/prototype/dragdrop.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> function submitComment() { $('comment-error').hide(); Form.request($('comment-form'), { method:'post', onSuccess: function(transport) { if(confirm("Your comment has been submitted for moderation. 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Infrastructure cost changes must be considered, such as a transmission line to the sunny desert where solar arrays might be located, there is no free lunch. People herein are suggesting infrastructure be amortized separately from the actual generation (the PV devices), which makes sense, but I caution that both must be considered in the total decision. Operating costs are not to be amortized, they are real-time expenses. See later herein for more. As I think you infer, amortization period must consider obsolescence, which I in effect said. However, something is only obsolescent if it no longer does its function, no longer satisfies your needs (e.g. you need a faster computer to run security software to use the Internet), or it is uneconomic. (The latter is my concern here as the price of solar energy production drops, but note that if a plant is fully depreciated then only operating costs are applicable and those may be low 驴 repair/ refurbish costs should be part of operating costs, often a fund is established in the accounting books.) Graham Crispin makes a good point, though I presume he means "Latitude 40 and below", and should consider cloud cover which does not equate to precipation. A good engineering economist is needed to cut through the babble on solar power, but I am wary of trying to do anything for what is a political argument not rational activity. (Solar power has been used for decades where the cost of alternatives is high, such as radio repeaters on mountain tops. It should be showing up for larger power uses in remote locations such as fishing lodges, as diesel or propane fuelled generators are costly to operate 驴 though some locations may be able to use hydro-electric or windmill generation.) .. Keith Sketchley, </span> </div> </div> <div id="cmmntLstng"> <div id="cmmnt"> <span class="lstngCpyBld">Peter Diemer</span> 04.20.2010<br/> <span class="lstngCpyPln">: If the Company receives more power over 25 years, then, the present value of a new system is equal to the power produced in Y years. If, as prospective investors, the Company can build systems whose present value exceeds the cost, then it would be a good alternative. If for simple economic reasons, the Company is interested in funding the system, the payback time would be approximately 10-15 years. If this, as the advent of mass printing of PV film on seamed metal roofing panels is fulfilled, a PV film technology roof could produce electricity at ` $0.05/kWh.</span> </div> </div> <div id="cmmntLstng"> <div id="cmmnt"> <span class="lstngCpyBld">Keith Sketchley</span> 04.16.2010<br/> <span class="lstngCpyPln">Alert - calculations depend on several things I don't read as covered: - assumptions about interest rates on the capital. They've been low, though central bank policy may have pushed that, regardless they depend on government policy on money supply 驴 as the bills come in for all the bailouts and medical cost there'll be a temptation to print money which is the cause of inflation. - revenue (from sale of electricity or avoidance of purchase) depends on the price of electricity - risk level due other factors. 40 years is a long time, especially with an evolving technology. Keep in mind that a house mortgage includes the land which has a longer life than the building. </span> </div> </div> <div id="cmmntLstng"> <div id="cmmnt"> <span class="lstngCpyBld">DP</span> 04.16.2010<br/> <span class="lstngCpyPln">Having a longer amortization period doesn't change the economics of the infrastructure. That confuses accounting and finance (cashflows). Essentially, the authors are confusing average costs and marginal costs. It comes down to the Net Present Value of of the upfront fixed cost + ongoing operating costs. Also having an extended operating lifetime may not be an advantage. You may still need to write the entire infrastructure off as innovation and technology improvements for solar or other energy sources come into play. Why would you keep running technically inferior, relatively more expensive infrastructure indefinitely? Maybe you better bring that economist back into the discussion.</span> </div> </div> <div id="cmmntLstng"> <div id="cmmnt"> <span class="lstngCpyBld">Hank Walker</span> 04.15.2010<br/> <span class="lstngCpyPln">A homeowner would normally finance a PV installation with a mortgage. Consider a 4kWp system @ $7/Wp installed or $28k. At 6% interest, a 30 year loan is $168/mo. At 40 years, it is $154/mo, only 8.3% less, insignificant compared to the PV learning curve. </span> </div> </div> <div id="cmmntLstng"> <div id="cmmnt"> <span class="lstngCpyBld">Graham Crispin</span> 04.15.2010<br/> <span class="lstngCpyPln">The report cited by BBC notes that for Latitudes similar to Italy, grid parity is imminent and not as reported here within a decade. The report notes the majority of cost to installation and not to the photovoltaics. One would asume that the amortization period for Megawatt instalations is already beyond 40 years. Interestingly, new or replacement roofs incorporating photovolatics and at Latitude 40 and above are arguably better than grid parity now.</span> </div> </div> <div id="cmmntLstng"> <div id="cmmnt"> <span class="lstngCpyBld">Marcus Maedl</span> 04.15.2010<br/> <span class="lstngCpyPln">I guess there is a reason why mayor brands put their reputation on the line and offer 25 to 30 year warranties. Depending on many variables, a realistic LCOE (levelized cost of energy) for a 1MW (DC) system would already, today, lead to a $0.09/kWh over 25 years - WITHOUT any incentives (depreciation is not an incentive - it will always be available in one form or another): 1MW generates approx. 37,000,000 kWh over 25 years ($4MM initial cash outlay, value of depreciation $1.5MM, O&M; cost $1MM) The hard part is getting investors to accept the risks involved. 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IEEE Spectrum: No Joke: Extending Solar's Lease on Life