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</div> <div class="control"> <button class="button is-small is-link">Go</button> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> <ol class="breathe-horizontal" start="1"> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.09273">arXiv:2402.09273</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.09273">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2402.09273">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> The McNish and Lincoln Solar Activity Predictions: The Method and its Performance </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Clette%2C+F">Fr茅d茅ric Clette</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Jain%2C+S">Shantanu Jain</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+T">Tatiana Podladchikova</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2402.09273v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> The McNish and Lincoln (ML) method, introduced in 1949, was one of the first attempts to produce mid-term forecasts of solar activity, up to 12 months ahead. However, it has been poorly described and evaluated in the past literature, in particular its actual operational implementation by NOAA. Here, we reconstruct the exact formulation of the method, as it was applied since the early 1970s, and… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2402.09273v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2402.09273v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2402.09273v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> The McNish and Lincoln (ML) method, introduced in 1949, was one of the first attempts to produce mid-term forecasts of solar activity, up to 12 months ahead. However, it has been poorly described and evaluated in the past literature, in particular its actual operational implementation by NOAA. Here, we reconstruct the exact formulation of the method, as it was applied since the early 1970s, and we provide a full mathematical derivation of the prediction errors. For bench-marking the method, we also produce monthly predictions over the past 190 years, from 1833 (Cycle 8) to 2023 (Cycle 25), and develop statistics of the differences between the predictions and the observed 13-month smoothed sunspot number (SSN) time series, according to the phase in the solar cycle. Our analysis shows that the ML method is heavily constrained because it is primarily based on the mean of all past cycles, which imposes a fixed amplitude and length and suffers from a temporal smearing that grows towards the end of the solar cycle. We find that predictions are completely unreliable in the first 12 months of the cycle, and over the last two years preceding the ending minimum (around 130 months), and beyond this minimum. By contrast, in the course of the cycle (months 18 to 65), ML predictions prove to be reliable over a time range of up to 50 months (4.2 years), thus much longer than the 12-month conventional range used so far. However, we find that predictions then suffer from systematic under-(over-)estimates for cycles that have a higher (lower) amplitude than the base mean cycle. Overall, we conclude that although the ML method provides valid prediction errors, it suffers from strong limitations, with very little room for improvement, as it indifferently merges all past cycles into a single fixed statistics. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2402.09273v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2402.09273v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 14 February, 2024; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> February 2024. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">44 pages, 22 figures</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10969">arXiv:2303.10969</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10969">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2303.10969">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202345938">10.1051/0004-6361/202345938 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> The 17 April 2021 widespread solar energetic particle event </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dresing%2C+N">N. Dresing</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Rodr%C3%ADguez-Garc%C3%ADa%2C+L">L. Rodr铆guez-Garc铆a</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Jebaraj%2C+I+C">I. C. Jebaraj</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Warmuth%2C+A">A. Warmuth</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Wallace%2C+S">S. Wallace</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Balmaceda%2C+L">L. Balmaceda</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+T">T. Podladchikova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Strauss%2C+R+D">R. D. Strauss</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Kouloumvakos%2C+A">A. Kouloumvakos</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Palmroos%2C+C">C. Palmroos</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Krupar%2C+V">V. Krupar</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Gieseler%2C+J">J. Gieseler</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Xu%2C+Z">Z. Xu</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Mitchell%2C+J+G">J. G. Mitchell</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Cohen%2C+C+M+S">C. M. S. Cohen</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=de+Nolfo%2C+G+A">G. A. de Nolfo</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Palmerio%2C+E">E. Palmerio</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Carcaboso%2C+F">F. Carcaboso</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Kilpua%2C+E+K+J">E. K. J. Kilpua</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Trotta%2C+D">D. Trotta</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Auster%2C+U">U. Auster</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Asvestari%2C+E">E. Asvestari</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=da+Silva%2C+D">D. da Silva</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dr%C3%B6ge%2C+W">W. Dr枚ge</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Getachew%2C+T">T. Getachew</a> , et al. (24 additional authors not shown) </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2303.10969v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Context. A solar eruption on 17 April 2021 produced a widespread Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event that was observed by five longitudinally well-separated observers in the inner heliosphere at heliocentric distances of 0.42 to 1 au: BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and near-Earth spacecraft. The event produced relativistic electrons and protons. It was associated with a… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2303.10969v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2303.10969v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2303.10969v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Context. A solar eruption on 17 April 2021 produced a widespread Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event that was observed by five longitudinally well-separated observers in the inner heliosphere at heliocentric distances of 0.42 to 1 au: BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and near-Earth spacecraft. The event produced relativistic electrons and protons. It was associated with a long-lasting solar hard X-ray flare and a medium fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) with a speed of 880 km/s driving a shock, an EUV wave as well as long-lasting radio burst activity showing four distinct type III burst. Methods. A multi-spacecraft analysis of remote-sensing and in-situ observations is applied to attribute the SEP observations at the different locations to the various potential source regions at the Sun. An ENLIL simulation is used to characterize the interplanetary state and its role for the energetic particle transport. The magnetic connection between each spacecraft and the Sun is determined. Based on a reconstruction of the coronal shock front we determine the times when the shock establishes magnetic connections with the different observers. Radio observations are used to characterize the directivity of the four main injection episodes, which are then employed in a 2D SEP transport simulation. Results. Timing analysis of the inferred SEP solar injection suggests different source processes being important for the electron and the proton event. Comparison among the characteristics and timing of the potential particle sources, such as the CME-driven shock or the flare, suggests a stronger shock contribution for the proton event and a more likely flare-related source of the electron event. Conclusions. We find that in this event an important ingredient for the wide SEP spread was the wide longitudinal range of about 110 degrees covered by distinct SEP injections. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2303.10969v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2303.10969v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 20 March, 2023; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> March 2023. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Journal ref:</span> A&A 674, A105 (2023) </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.11098">arXiv:2212.11098</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.11098">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2212.11098">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202244996">10.1051/0004-6361/202244996 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Identifying the energy release site in a Solar microflare with a jet </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Battaglia%2C+A+F">Andrea Francesco Battaglia</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Wang%2C+W">Wen Wang</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Saqri%2C+J">Jonas Saqri</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+T">Tatiana Podladchikova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Veronig%2C+A+M">Astrid M. Veronig</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Collier%2C+H">Hannah Collier</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dickson%2C+E+C+M">Ewan C. M. Dickson</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+O">Olena Podladchikova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Monstein%2C+C">Christian Monstein</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Warmuth%2C+A">Alexander Warmuth</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Schuller%2C+F">Fr茅d茅ric Schuller</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Harra%2C+L">Louise Harra</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Krucker%2C+S">S盲m Krucker</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2212.11098v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> One of the main science questions of the Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe missions deals with understanding how electrons in the lower solar corona are accelerated and how they subsequently access interplanetary space. We aim to investigate the electron acceleration and energy release sites as well as the manner in which accelerated electrons access the interplanetary space in the case of the… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2212.11098v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2212.11098v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2212.11098v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> One of the main science questions of the Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe missions deals with understanding how electrons in the lower solar corona are accelerated and how they subsequently access interplanetary space. We aim to investigate the electron acceleration and energy release sites as well as the manner in which accelerated electrons access the interplanetary space in the case of the SOL2021-02-18T18:05 event, a GOES A8 class microflare associated with a coronal jet. This study takes advantage of three different vantage points, Solar Orbiter, STEREO-A, and Earth, with observations ranging from radio to X-ray. Multi-wavelength timing analysis combined with UV/EUV imagery and X-ray spectroscopy by Solar Orbiter/STIX (Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays) is used to investigate the origin of the observed emission during different flare phases. The event under investigation satisfies the classical picture of the onset time of the acceleration of electrons coinciding with the jet and the radio type III bursts. This microflare features prominent hard X-ray nonthermal emission down to at least 10 keV and a spectrum that is much harder than usual for a microflare with a spectral index of 2.9. From Earth's vantage point, the microflare is seen near the limb, revealing the coronal energy release site above the flare loop in EUV, which, from STIX spectroscopic analysis, turns out to be hot (at roughly the same temperature of the flare). Moreover, this region is moving toward higher altitudes over time (about 30 km/s). During the flare, the same region spatially coincides with the origin of the coronal jet. We conclude that the energy release site observed above-the-loop corresponds to the electron acceleration site, corroborating that interchange reconnection is a viable candidate for particle acceleration in the low corona on field lines open to interplanetary space. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2212.11098v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2212.11098v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 21 December, 2022; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> December 2022. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">9 pages, 6 figures</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Journal ref:</span> A&A 670, A56 (2023) </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.16572">arXiv:2211.16572</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2211.16572">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/2211.16572">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2211.16572">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Earth and Planetary Astrophysics">astro-ph.EP</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac3533">10.1093/mnras/stac3533 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Geomagnetic storm forecasting from solar coronal holes </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Nitti%2C+S">Simona Nitti</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+T">Tatiana Podladchikova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Hofmeister%2C+S+J">Stefan J. Hofmeister</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Veronig%2C+A+M">Astrid M. Veronig</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Verbanac%2C+G">Giuliana Verbanac</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Bandi%C4%87%2C+M">Mario Bandi膰</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2211.16572v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Coronal holes (CHs) are the source of high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind, whose interaction with the slow solar wind creates corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere. Whenever the CIRs hit the Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. We develop a method to predict the strength of CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations using the CH areas and ass… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2211.16572v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2211.16572v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2211.16572v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Coronal holes (CHs) are the source of high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind, whose interaction with the slow solar wind creates corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere. Whenever the CIRs hit the Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. We develop a method to predict the strength of CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations using the CH areas and associated magnetic field polarity. First, we build a dataset comprising the properties of CHs on the Sun, the associated HSSs, CIRs, and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at L1, and the strength of the associated geomagnetic storms by the geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. Then, we predict the Dst and Kp indices using a Gaussian Process model, which accounts for the annual variation of the orientation of Earth's magnetic field axis. We demonstrate that the polarity of the IMF at L1 associated with CIRs is preserved in around 83% of cases when compared to the polarity of their CH sources. Testing our model over the period 2010-2020, we obtained a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed Dst index of R = 0.63/0.73, and Kp index of R = 0.65/0.67, for HSSs having a polarity towards/away from the Sun. These findings demonstrate the possibility of predicting CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations and extending the forecasting lead time up to several days, which is relevant for enhancing space weather predictions. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2211.16572v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2211.16572v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 29 November, 2022; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> November 2022. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">13 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.02228">arXiv:2210.02228</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.02228">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2210.02228">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202244248">10.1051/0004-6361/202244248 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Tracking magnetic flux and helicity from Sun to Earth -- Multi-spacecraft analysis of a magnetic cloud and its solar source </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Thalmann%2C+J+K">J. K. Thalmann</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dumbovic%2C+M">M. Dumbovic</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dissauer%2C+K">K. Dissauer</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+T">T. Podladchikova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Chikunova%2C+G">G. Chikunova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Temmer%2C+M">M. Temmer</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dickson%2C+E">E. Dickson</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Veronig%2C+A+M">A. M. Veronig</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2210.02228v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> We analyze the complete chain of effects caused by a solar eruptive event in order to better understand the dynamic evolution of magnetic-field related quantities in interplanetary space, in particular that of magnetic flux and helicity. We study a series of connected events (a confined C4.5 flare, a flare-less filament eruption and a double-peak M-class flare) that originated in NOAA active regio… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2210.02228v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2210.02228v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2210.02228v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> We analyze the complete chain of effects caused by a solar eruptive event in order to better understand the dynamic evolution of magnetic-field related quantities in interplanetary space, in particular that of magnetic flux and helicity. We study a series of connected events (a confined C4.5 flare, a flare-less filament eruption and a double-peak M-class flare) that originated in NOAA active region (AR) 12891 on 2021 November 1 and November 2. We deduce the magnetic structure of AR 12891 using stereoscopy and nonlinear force-free (NLFF) magnetic field modeling, allowing us to identify a coronal flux rope and to estimate its axial flux and helicity. Additionally, we compute reconnection fluxes based on flare ribbon and coronal dimming signatures from remote sensing imagery. Comparison to corresponding quantities of the associated magnetic cloud (MC), deduced from in-situ measurements from Solar Orbiter and near-Earth spacecraft, allows us to draw conclusions on the evolution of the associated interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). The latter are aided through the application of geometric fitting techniques (graduated cylindrical shell modeling; GCS) and interplanetary propagation models (drag based ensemble modeling; DBEM) to the ICME. NLFF modeling suggests the host AR's magnetic structure in the form of a left-handed (negative-helicity) sheared arcade/flux rope reaching to altitudes of 8-10 Mm above photospheric levels, in close agreement with the corresponding stereoscopic estimate. Revealed from GCS and DBEM modeling, the ejected flux rope propagated in a self-similar expanding manner through interplanetary space. Comparison of magnetic fluxes and helicities processed by magnetic reconnection in the solar source region and the respective budgets of the MC indicate a considerable contribution from the eruptive process, though the pre-eruptive budgets appear of relevance too. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2210.02228v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2210.02228v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 5 October, 2022; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> October 2022. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">14 pages, 9 Figures, 3 Tables, 1 Movie; accepted for publication in A&A</span> </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Journal ref:</span> A&A 669, A72 (2023) </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.00712">arXiv:2201.00712</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2201.00712">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2201.00712">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202142373">10.1051/0004-6361/202142373 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Multi-instrument STIX microflare study </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Saqri%2C+J">J. Saqri</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Veronig%2C+A+M">A. M. Veronig</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Warmuth%2C+A">A. Warmuth</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dickson%2C+E+C+M">E. C. M. Dickson</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Battaglia%2C+A+F">A. F. Battaglia</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+T">T. Podladchikova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Xiao%2C+H">H. Xiao</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Battaglia%2C+M">M. Battaglia</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Hurford%2C+G+J">G. J. Hurford</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Krucker%2C+S">S. Krucker</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2201.00712v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> During its commissioning phase in 2020, the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) on board the Solar Orbiter spacecraft observed 69 microflares. The two most significant events from this set (of GOES class B2 and B6) were observed on-disk from the spacecraft as well as from Earth and analysed in terms of the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics. We complement the observatio… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2201.00712v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2201.00712v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2201.00712v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> During its commissioning phase in 2020, the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) on board the Solar Orbiter spacecraft observed 69 microflares. The two most significant events from this set (of GOES class B2 and B6) were observed on-disk from the spacecraft as well as from Earth and analysed in terms of the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics. We complement the observations from the STIX instrument with EUV imagery from SDO/AIA and GOES soft X-ray data by adding imaging and plasma diagnostics over different temperature ranges for a detailed microflare case study that is focussed on energy release and transport. Spectral fitting of the STIX data shows clear nonthermal emission for both microflares studied here. The deduced plasma parameters from DEM reconstruction as well as spectral fitting roughly agree with the values in the literature for microflares as do the nonthermal fit parameters from STIX. The observed Neupert effects and impulsive and gradual phases indicate that both events covered in this study are consistent with the standard chromospheric evaporation flare scenario. For the B6 event on 7 June 2020, this interpretation is further supported by the temporal evolution seen in the DEM profiles of the flare ribbons and loops. For this event, we also find that accelerated electrons can roughly account for the required thermal energy. The 6 June 2020 event demonstrates that STIX can detect nonthermal emission for GOES class B2 events that is nonetheless smaller than the background rate level. We demonstrate for the first time how detailed multi-instrument studies of solar flares can be performed with STIX. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2201.00712v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2201.00712v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 3 January, 2022; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> January 2022. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Journal ref:</span> A&A 659, A52 (2022) </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.11707">arXiv:2006.11707</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.11707">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/2006.11707">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2006.11707">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ab9ec5">10.3847/2041-8213/ab9ec5 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Solar Flare-CME Coupling Throughout Two Acceleration Phases of a Fast CME </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Gou%2C+T">Tingyu Gou</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Veronig%2C+A+M">Astrid M. Veronig</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Liu%2C+R">Rui Liu</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Zhuang%2C+B">Bin Zhuang</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dumbovic%2C+M">Mateja Dumbovic</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+T">Tatiana Podladchikova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Reid%2C+H+A+S">Hamish A. S. Reid</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Temmer%2C+M">Manuela Temmer</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dissauer%2C+K">Karin Dissauer</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Vrsnak%2C+B">Bojan Vrsnak</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Wang%2C+Y">Yuming Wang</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2006.11707v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an im… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2006.11707v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2006.11707v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2006.11707v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an impulsive one with a peak value of ~5 km s$^{-2}$ followed by an extended phase with accelerations up to 0.7 km s$^{-2}$. The two-phase CME dynamics is associated with a two-episode flare energy release. While the first episode is consistent with the "standard" eruption of a magnetic flux rope, the second episode of flare energy release is initiated by the reconnection of a large-scale loop in the aftermath of the eruption and produces stronger nonthermal emission up to $纬$-rays. In addition, this long-duration flare reveals clear signs of ongoing magnetic reconnection during the decay phase, evidenced by extended HXR bursts with energies up to 100--300 keV and intermittent downflows of reconnected loops for >4 hours. The observations reveal that the two-step flare reconnection substantially contributes to the two-phase CME acceleration, and the impulsive CME acceleration precedes the most intense flare energy release. The implications of this non-standard flare/CME observation are discussed. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2006.11707v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2006.11707v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 20 June, 2020; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> June 2020. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">accepted for publication in ApJL</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.10161">arXiv:1908.10161</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1908.10161">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1908.10161">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-019-1515-6">10.1007/s11207-019-1515-6 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> CME -- HSS interaction and characteristics tracked from Sun to Earth </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Heinemann%2C+S+G">Stephan G. Heinemann</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Temmer%2C+M">Manuela Temmer</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Farrugia%2C+C+J">Charles J. Farrugia</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dissauer%2C+K">Karin Dissauer</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Kay%2C+C">Christina Kay</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Wiegelmann%2C+T">Thomas Wiegelmann</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Dumbovi%C4%87%2C+M">Mateja Dumbovi膰</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Veronig%2C+A+M">Astrid M. Veronig</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+T">Tatiana Podladchikova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Hofmeister%2C+S+J">Stefan J. Hofmeister</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Lugaz%2C+N">No茅 Lugaz</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Carcaboso%2C+F">Fernando Carcaboso</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1908.10161v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> In a thorough study, we investigate the origin of a remarkable plasma and magnetic field configuration observed in situ on June 22, 2011 near L1, which appears to be a magnetic ejecta (ME) and a shock signature engulfed by a solar wind high-speed stream (HSS). We identify the signatures as an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a C7.7 flare on June 21, 2011, and its interac… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1908.10161v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1908.10161v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1908.10161v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> In a thorough study, we investigate the origin of a remarkable plasma and magnetic field configuration observed in situ on June 22, 2011 near L1, which appears to be a magnetic ejecta (ME) and a shock signature engulfed by a solar wind high-speed stream (HSS). We identify the signatures as an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a C7.7 flare on June 21, 2011, and its interaction with a HSS, which emanates from a coronal hole (CH) close to the launch site of the CME. The results indicate that the major interaction between the CME and the HSS starts at a height of 1.3 Rsun up to 3 Rsun. Over that distance range, the CME undergoes a strong north-eastward deflection of at least 30 degrees due to the open magnetic field configuration of the CH. We perform a comprehensive analysis for the CME-HSS event using multi-viewpoint data (from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatories, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory), and combined modeling efforts (nonlinear force-free field modeling, Graduated Cylindrical Shell CME modeling, and the Forecasting a CMEs Altered Trajectory ForeCAT model). We aim at better understanding its early evolution and interaction process as well as its interplanetary propagation and related in situ signatures, and finally the resulting impact on the Earth's magnetosphere. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1908.10161v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1908.10161v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 27 August, 2019; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> August 2019. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">Accepted in Solar Physics on August 26, 2019</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.06590">arXiv:1802.06590</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.06590">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/1802.06590">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1802.06590">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Podladchikova%2C+T">Tatiana Podladchikova</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Petrukovich%2C+A">Anatoly Petrukovich</a>, <a href="/search/physics?searchtype=author&query=Yermolaev%2C+Y">Yuri Yermolaev</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1802.06590v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011--2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by $Dst$ index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind an… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1802.06590v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1802.06590v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1802.06590v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011--2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by $Dst$ index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1802.06590v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1802.06590v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 19 February, 2018; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> February 2018. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">22 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate</span> </p> </li> </ol> <div class="is-hidden-tablet">  <span class="help" style="display: inline-block;"><a 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