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Mysteel早报：4月USDA大豆供需报告落地 数据中性偏空（20240412）-我的钢铁网
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class='source'>2024-04-12 08:56</span> <span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="3139" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 2em; color: #333333; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 1.5;"><span class="huiyi-out-viewport-el" style="color: #333333; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong class="huiyi-out-viewport-el">今日观点：</strong>USDA供需报告落地，数据偏空，报告发布后美豆震荡走弱，国内盘面或跟随走弱。</span></p> <p style="line-height: 1.5;"><strong><span style="color: #023985;">一、产区天气</span></strong></p> <p><strong>USDA最新干早报告：</strong>截至4月9日当周，约22%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱景乡，而此前一周为22%，去年同期为20%。约23%的美国玉米种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周为24%，去年同期为28%。约11%的美国棉花种植区域受到干旱影向，而此前一周为8%，去年同期为40%。</p> <p><strong>阿根廷潮湿天气或延误田间工作。</strong>阿根廷北部各地的一锋面将引发一风暴系统，并将在本周末和下周初向南部移动，带来大范围的阵雨和雷暴，可能会有更多的大雨。随着大豆的成熟，且处于收获的早期阶段，降雨并不是那么有益，而且应该开始阻碍田间工作。然而，在该系统之后干旱条件可能会持续一周，这将有助于大部分地区变干。</p> <p><strong>巴西中部和北部地区可能持续零星阵雨。</strong>一股冷锋将继续给南部地区带来阵雨。这股锋面最终将于下周向北移动，之后一段时间内将出现干燥天气。尽管如此，雨季降雨将很快停止。</p> <p class="" style="margin-top: 5pt; margin-bottom: 5pt; text-indent: 10pt; line-height: 1.5;"><strong><span style="color: #023985;">二、</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #023985;">CBOT市场</span></strong> </p> <p>周四，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低0.47%，因本次USDA供需报告数据偏空：全球大豆供应规模和巴西大豆产量依然很高。</p> <p style="line-height: 1.5;"><strong><span style="color: #023985;">三、机构报告</span></strong></p> <p>USDA供需报告：将2023/24年度美国大豆出口预测调低2000万蒲，至17亿蒲，比上年降低11.1%。大豆期末库存调高2500万蒲，至3.40亿蒲，比上年高出28.8%，也是四年来最高库存。</p> <p>USDA供需报告：将美国玉米期末库存预测从21.72亿蒲下调至21.22亿蒲，但这将比上年大幅增加56%，将是五年最高水平。玉米的饲料用量调高2500万蒲，达到57亿蒲（上年54.86亿蒲）；乙醇行业的玉米用量调高2500万蒲，达到54亿蒲（上年51.76亿蒲）。2023/24年度美国玉米平均农场价格预估下调5美分，至每蒲4.70美元。</p> <p>CONAB：将巴西2023/24年度大豆收成预测从之前的1.46858亿吨下调至1.46522亿吨，原因是主产区马托格罗索州天气不利。</p> <p>布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所周四预测阿根廷2023/24年度大豆产量为5100万吨，低于之前预测的5250万吨。本月美国农业部维持阿根廷大豆产量预期不变，仍为5,000万吨。</p> <p>美国气候预测中心：2024年下半年出现以太平洋温度异常偏低为特征的拉尼娜现象的可能性约为60%。 </p> <p>阿根廷农业部：截至4月3日，阿根廷农户预售1136万吨2023/24年度大豆，比一周前高出19万吨，去年同期5986万吨。阿根廷农户销售2,034万吨2022/23年度大豆，比一周前增加3万吨，去年同期3,636万吨。</p> <p>最近阿根廷官方汇率和平行汇率的价差缩窄，反映市场对未来比索汇率进一步贬值的预期减弱。截至4月3日，阿根廷官方汇率和平行汇率差为132比索，一周前为137比索，2月底为171比索，1月底为344比索。</p> <p>USDA出口销售报告：截至4月4日当周，美国2023/24年度大豆净销售量为305,300吨，比上周高出57%，但是比四周均值低了3%。这一数据接近市场预期范围的低端。</p> <p>USDA出口销售报告：截至4月4日当周，美国2023/24年度豆粕净销售量为187,900吨，比上周低了7%，比四周均值低了4%。2024/25年度净销售量为53,400吨，一周前为32,600吨。美国2023/24年度豆油净销售量为4,300吨，比上周高出39%，但是比四周均值低了22%。</p> <p><strong><span style="color: #023985;">四、油厂榨利</span></strong></p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 168.699px;" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/12/35d0daeda97b475b899ee02151f2dead.jpg" width="600" height="168" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.5;"><strong><span style="color: #023985;">五、国内现货</span></strong></p> <p>豆粕：全国主要油厂豆粕成交34.31万吨，较上一交易日增加16.6万吨，其中现货成交10.71万吨，远月基差成交23.6万吨。开机方面，今日全国125家油厂开机率上升至53.81%。</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 228.21px;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/12/65cc6f4b80d642b483507cc463b4637c.jpg" width="600" height="228" /></p> <p>豆油价格及成交：4月11日豆油成交14500吨，棕榈油成交200吨，总成交比上一交易日减少37500吨，降幅71.83%。</p> <p><img style="width: 600px; height: 311.429px;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/12/00c8ac8828984c17940fc1aff7bb300c.jpg" width="600" height="311" /></p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：吴美霞 021-66896650 </br> 资讯监督：龙雪云 021-26094522 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a 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