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百年建筑解读：地产基建政策利好，建材价格或有所修复-百年建筑网
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class='time'>作者：金央央</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="6866" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">一、核心观点</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">宏观方面，北京、成都因城施策，相应放宽松限购政策，五一期间当地新房成交上升，金融市场地产投资信心修复；基建资金加持政策有所加强，宏观面情绪稳中偏强；需求方面，降雨减少，但短期施工资金面偏紧，仍需关注每周三建筑工地资金到位率；供给方面，企业利润修复，厂家复产积极性提高，短期产量稳中略增；心态方面，节后市场投机需求较为活跃。综合来看，预计本周<a href='https://m.100njz.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>建筑材料</a>价格<span style="color: black;">或有所修复</span>。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">二、正文</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">1. </span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">重点事件聚焦</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">1.1 </span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">建筑业：五一前建筑工地资金到位率62.77%，周环比增加0.13个百分点</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">据百年建筑调研，截至4月30日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为62.77%，周环比增加0.13个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到位率为65.80%，周环比增加0.34个百分点；房建项目资金到位率为45.33%，周环比减少0.74个百分点。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">本期工地资金到位率增速明显下滑，仅保持0.13个点的环比增速，其中房建资金到位率年内首次环比下降，主因是房建施工四月底资金到位偏紧；基建资金到位率项目分化，需留意部分高铁项目资金有明显下滑的现象。从区域上看，大多数地区施工单位资金到位率持稳，仅广东、浙江、云南个别非房建样本资金小幅改善，江苏、陕西、浙江个别非房建样本资金下滑幅度较大。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center; text-indent: 21pt;" align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 103.494px; visibility: visible;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/37e4f59a4dd440b29d8fe15706e23117.png" width="600" height="103" /> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">2.</span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">价格：4月第2周建筑材料行情8涨3跌4稳</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">截至2024年4月30日，周内建筑材料价格涨价品种为3个；下跌品种为9个；持稳品种为3个；</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">涨价品种：<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1001-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>水泥</a>和粉煤灰；</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">跌价品种：天然砂、机制砂、碎石、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1008-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>木方</a>、水泥<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1007-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>熟料</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1009-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>矿渣粉</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1013-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>砂浆</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1011-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>脚手架</a>和浮法玻璃；</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">持平品种：<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1002-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>混凝土</a>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1010-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>加气块</a>、建筑沥青。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center; text-indent: 21pt;" align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 88.6364px; visibility: visible;" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/189a9d17112b457b8f40f41a046f11d7.png" width="600" height="88" /> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">3. </span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">地产、基建需求分析</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21.1pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #c00000;">建筑业下游需求：</span></strong>截至2024年5月3日，国内250家水泥厂周出库量450.7万吨，环比下降0.52%，同比下降17.5%。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">水泥出库量连降两周，但降幅收窄。从区域上看，七大地区水泥出库量周环比涨跌互现，其中东北和华南环比分别增加6.8%和7.4%，东北连增两周，华南降雨减少后出货量由降转增。华北、华东、华中、西北和西南周环比均处于下降趋势。同比方面，各地区水泥出库量均处下降阶段。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 160.732px; visibility: visible;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/ae7724a7c2b14515a9918a311a6120d8.png" width="600" height="160" /> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21.1pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #c00000;">基建重大项目需求：</span></strong>截至2024年5月3日，国内250家水泥厂周基建直供量183万吨，环比下降3.7%，同比下降1.1%。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">从环比增速上看，基建水泥直供量周环比降幅减少，五一节前多地雨水，但节中雨水天数较预期中有所减少，基建项目施工进度小幅改善，因此基建用水泥直供量降幅有所收窄。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center;" align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 148.591px; visibility: visible;" src="//img02.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/c2393f133ce94e98ab3c8ff7873777dc.png" width="600" height="148" /> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21.1pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #c00000;">房建需求：</span></strong>截至2024年4月26日，国内506家混凝土搅拌站周发运量166.0万吨，环比减少0.09%，同比下降35.5%。资金方面，周内混凝土搅拌站应收账款按时回款率41.9%，环比下降0.4个百分点，降幅较上期收窄0.08个百分点。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;">从周环比来看，七大地区混凝土发运量涨跌不一，其中东北、华北、西北和西南环比增加，分别为22.9%/2.5%/2.1%/4.0%。华东、华南和华中发运量减少。</p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: center; text-indent: 21pt;" align="center"><img style="width: 600px; height: 168.569px; visibility: visible;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/05/06/9871eac624f14056bd099d346898c2ca.png" width="600" height="168" /> </p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: #002060;">4. </span></strong><strong><span style="color: #002060;">本周重点关注</span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">1</span><span style="color: black;">）宏观：北京、成都因城施策，相应放宽松限购政策，五一期间当地新房成交上升，金融市场地产投资信心修复；基建资金加持政策有所加强，宏观面情绪稳中偏强；</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">2</span><span style="color: black;">）需求：降雨减少，但短期施工资金面偏紧，仍需关注每周三建筑工地资金到位率；</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">3</span><span style="color: black;">）供给：企业利润修复，厂家复产积极性提高，短期产量稳中略增；</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; text-indent: 21pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black;">4</span><span style="color: black;">）心态：节后市场投机需求较为活跃；</span></p> <p><span style="color: black;">5</span><span style="color: black;">）综合来看，预计本周建筑材料价格或有所修复。</span></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> 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