Company in focus: Investors not sold on Emperador's global buying binge- Nikkei Asian Review

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href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505084841/mailto:/?subject=Company%20in%20focus%3A%20Investors%20not%20sold%20on%20Emperador%27s%20global%20buying%20binge&body=Here%20is%20something%20from%20Nikkei%20Asian%20Review%20that%20might%20interest%20you%3A%0D%0ACompany%20in%20focus%3A%20Investors%20not%20sold%20on%20Emperador%27s%20global%20buying%20binge%0D%0Ahttp://s.nikkei.com/1HMYACn">Mail</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="article-box"> <div class="detail"> <div class="feature-article"> <div class="date-area">December 5, 2015 11:00 pm JST</div> <div class="sub-title">Company in focus</div> <h1 class="title">Investors not sold on Emperador's global buying binge</h1> <p>CLIFF VENZON, Nikkei staff writer</p> </div> <img src="/web/20160505084841im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2015/201512/20151204/20151203_emperador/3724384-4-eng-GB/20151203_emperador_article_main_image.jpg" width="580" alt=""/> <p class="img-caption"> Emperador's affordable brandy is popular in rural areas of the Philippines. </p> </div> </div> <div class="article-box detail"> <div class="wysiwyg_area"> <div class="articleBodyText"> <p>MANILA -- When Emperador splurged on U.K. whiskey maker Whyte & Mackay last year, some thought its thirst for growth had been quenched. The announcement of a fresh acquisition on Tuesday proved that was not the case.</p><p>     The homegrown distiller of Philippine conglomerate <a href="/web/20160505084841/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05MSG9-E" target="_self" alt="05MSG9-E" class="mwMoTrg">Alliance Global Group</a> said it had purchased Beam Suntory's businesses in Spain for 275 million euros ($291 million). The deal gives Emperador ownership of rival Fundador Pedro Domecq, a leading premium brandy in the Philippines. It also gives the group control of Terry Centenario, Spain's No. 1 selling brandy; Tres Cepas, Equatorial Guinea's top brandy; and Harvey's, the U.K.'s most popular sherry.</p><div class="page_limit free"></div><div class="page_limit"></div><p>     Emperador's shares climbed 2.7% to 9.40 pesos (20 cents) on the day of the announcement, performing better than the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index, which rose 1.9% in a knee-jerk reaction, AB Capital Securities analyst Alexander Tiu said.</p><div class="object-right"> <div class="object-right fb"> <div class="object-right"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_94157"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505084841im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2015/201512/20151204/20151204emperadorshare/3724877-4-eng-GB/20151204Emperadorshare_middle_320.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_94157"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505084841im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2015/201512/20151204/20151204emperadorshare/3724877-4-eng-GB/20151204Emperadorshare_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p><b>    </b> But on Friday, the company's stock closed at 9.20 pesos, wiping out the gains. Investors have begun to question the fundamentals of the newly acquired brands and wonder how Emperador will fund the deal, Tiu said.</p><p>     Emperador has yet to reveal the details of its latest acquisition, having told the stock exchange that it will brief analysts and investors on Dec. 10.</p><p>     After touching a record high of 21 pesos in May 2013, Emperador's stock price fell to less than 9 pesos in less than five months. The May 2014 announcement of the Whyte & Mackay deal -- valued at 430 million pounds (about $723 million at the time) -- failed to boost investors' appetites.</p><p>     The share price hovered around 11 pesos for about a year, before plunging to a new low of 6.99 pesos on Sept. 30.</p><p>     The stock has since gained more than 30%, and the Beam Suntory move could have given it another boost. But with investors in wait-and-see mode, it is running into strong resistance at 9.90 pesos.</p><p>     Unlike the Philippines' century-old <a href="/web/20160505084841/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HWS8-E" target="_self" alt="05HWS8-E" class="mwMoTrg">San Miguel</a> beer, also a market leader, Emperador's namesake brandy was introduced in 1990 by Chairman and CEO Andrew Tan.</p><p>     The shopping spree of Western brands began when Emperador Distillers, then a privately held company, took over Spanish brandy maker Bodega San Bruno in January 2013 for 3 billion pesos.</p><div class="page_break auto free"></div><div class="page_break auto"></div><p>     The Philippine distiller's binge intensified after a backdoor listing in September that year, which gave it easier access to capital. It acquired a 409-hectare vineyard in Madrid in October, a 50% stake in distiller Bodega Las Copas in February 2014 for 3.7 billion pesos, Whyte & Mackay in May 2014 and a 230-hectare vineyard in the Spanish city of Toledo in July 2014.</p><p>     By the end of 2013, Emperador had emerged as the world's biggest brandy maker -- with output of 33 million cases, according to Drinks International.</p><p><b>     </b>The latest Beam Suntory deal is largely aimed at doubling Emperador's brandy production to around 60 million cases by 2017, compared to 2012. That would be equivalent to a third of the global market.  </p><p>     However, Emperador's display of buying power clearly has not been enough to convince investors. So far this year, shares are down 11.7%, lagging far behind the PSEi, which dropped 4.3%.</p><p>     In Tiu's view, Emperador is currently "fairly valued" with a price-earnings ratio of 20 times, at par with other consumer companies.</p><p>     The growing investor concern is related to domestic issues; the distiller rings up the bulk of its sales in its home market.</p><p>     Lovell Sarreal, an analyst at Maybank ATR Kim Eng, said Emperador's shares have been battered by concerns over the "flattish" growth of the liquor industry since January 2013, when the Philippines imposed a higher excise tax on distilled spirits.</p><div class="object-left"> <div class="object-left fb"> <div class="object-left"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_94156"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505084841im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2015/201512/20151204/20151204liquorshare/3724866-4-eng-GB/20151204Liquorshare_middle_320.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_94156"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505084841im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2015/201512/20151204/20151204liquorshare/3724866-4-eng-GB/20151204Liquorshare_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>     President Benigno Aquino imposed higher taxes to boost government revenues while discouraging Filipinos from smoking and drinking. The sin tax adds 20 pesos for every proof and tacks on another 15% over the retail price. That rate was raised to 20% this year.</p><p>     Before Aquino began incentivizing Filipinos to drink less, the domestic distilled spirits market was starting to mature. The tax has weighed on Emperador's performance. "Emperador's growth so far is not as fast as what we have seen in the past," Maybank ATR's Sarreal said.</p><p>     When Tan entered the business in the 1990s, it did not take long for Emperador to shake up the Philippine liquor market, which was then dominated by rum and gin.</p><p>     With a growing population known to savor a tipple in times of joy and grief alike, the former Spanish and U.S. colony has been an attractive market for brewers and distillers.</p><p>     Emperador rapidly expanded its portfolio outside brandy. In 2009, it got into flavored vodka under The Bar brand. In 2010, it introduced Emperador Light, in which the alcohol is diluted. Its TV advertisements star young professional men in their 20s and 30s -- rather than the older men featured in earlier ads, or the scantily clad women in its rivals' campaigns.</p><p>     Emperador now controls more than 90% of the local brandy market and around half of the country's distilled spirits sector. Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine one brand remaining the overwhelming consumer favorite forever.</p><p>     The Philippines has a median age of 23, and increasingly affluent young people tend to be open to new things. Lester Babiera, a 25-year-old freelance photographer, said he tries gin, rum and tequila when he goes out with friends. "Or we go for local beers when we decide to have a night cap."</p><p>     The latest earnings show how quickly the market is becoming saturated. Excluding the contribution from Whyte & Mackay, Emperador brandy's sales fell 7% from January to September. Sales of <a href="/web/20160505084841/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/0060V7-E" target="_self" alt="0060V7-E" class="mwMoTrg">LT Group</a>'s Tanduay Distillers, the nation's largest rum maker, were flat by value and declined 4% by volume during the same period, according to COL Financial reports.</p><p>     To spark further growth in a maturing market, Tan is now trying to make the company's mark abroad.</p><p>     "Access to the international market and new consumers provide the company with vast opportunity for future growth," Tan said at Emperador's annual shareholders meeting in May, making the case for the Whyte & Mackay acquisition.</p><div class="object-right"> <div class="object-right fb"> <div class="object-right"> <div class="js_enlarge"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="mwTrg" alt="zoom_94158"> <div class="image-side"> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505084841im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2015/201512/20151204/20151204emperadorcap/3724888-3-eng-GB/20151204Emperadorcap_middle_320.png" alt="" class=""><p class="date-area img-caption"></p> </div> </a> </div> <div class="modal-zoom" id="zoom_94158"> <a href="javascript:%20void(0);" class="js_close fb">Close</a> <img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160505084841im_/http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2015/201512/20151204/20151204emperadorcap/3724888-3-eng-GB/20151204Emperadorcap_article_main_image.png" alt="" class=""></div> </div> </div> </div><p>     "All these acquisitions are justifiable," Raul Ruiz, head of research at RCBC Securities said. "They provide a platform for long-term growth." </p><p>     But AB Capital Securities' Tiu said the market wants more than a rosy outlook. "Investors are looking at the short-term and they have yet to appreciate these investments," Tiu said. "The company should find ways to make these investments accretive to its bottom line."</p><p>     Investors want to see how the overseas investments, particularly Whyte & Mackay, pan out. Whiskey is a new category in Emperador's business portfolio. </p><p>     In the nine months through September, Emperador's revenue jumped 45% with the consolidation of Whyte & Mackay, but net income grew 3%.</p><p><b>     </b>Now that the company has expanded its portfolio and distribution network, Tiu suggested, it should focus on developing synergies. This will be crucial to competing with global giants such as India's United Spirits or the U.K.'s Diageo -- the world's largest liquor producer.</p><p>     Diageo's market value is 23 times Emperador's.</p><p>     That said, the Philippine distiller has made great strides in Asia. It has already eclipsed 90-year-old South Korean rival Hite Jinro's market capitalization, which stood at $1.5 billion at the end of 2014.</p><p>     "Emperador obviously wants to become a global player," said RCBC Securities' Ruiz, "not just in brandy but also in whiskey, and it is moving to go upscale from low-price [products]."</p> </div> </div> <div id="modal-screen_zoom"></div> </div> <div id="05MSG9-E" class="cmp-smy-balloon"> <div class="cmp-smy-balloon-inr"> <span class="sub-title-a300">Asia300</span> <h3 class="mwmo-title"><a href="/web/20160505084841/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05MSG9-E">Alliance Global Group, Inc.</a></h3> <p class="a300ctry">Philippines</p> <table> <tr> <th>Market(Ticker):</th> <td>PHS(AGI)</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Sector:<br>Industry:</th> <td>Producer Manufacturing<br>Industrial Conglomerates</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Market cap(USD):</th> <td>3,206.76M</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Shares:</th> <td>10,269.82M</td> </tr> </table> <div class="more"> <a href="/web/20160505084841/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05MSG9-E">about Alliance Global Group, Inc.</a> </div> </div> </div> <div id="0060V7-E" class="cmp-smy-balloon"> <div class="cmp-smy-balloon-inr"> <span class="sub-title-a300">Asia300</span> <h3 class="mwmo-title"><a href="/web/20160505084841/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/0060V7-E">LT Group, Inc.</a></h3> <p class="a300ctry">Philippines</p> <table> <tr> <th>Market(Ticker):</th> <td>PHS(LTG)</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Sector:<br>Industry:</th> <td>Consumer Non-Durables<br>Beverages: Alcoholic</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Market cap(USD):</th> <td>3,333.01M</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Shares:</th> <td>10,821.38M</td> </tr> </table> <div class="more"> <a href="/web/20160505084841/http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/0060V7-E">about LT Group, Inc.</a> </div> </div> </div> <div id="05HWS8-E" class="cmp-smy-balloon"> <div class="cmp-smy-balloon-inr"> <span class="sub-title-a300">Asia300</span> <h3 class="mwmo-title"><a 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Company in focus: Investors not sold on Emperador's global buying binge- Nikkei Asian Review