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Submissions weren't open for very long and have now closed, but the full terms of reference are here. It is a select committee inquiry, so it is hard to be…" /> </head> <body class="post-template-default single single-post postid-72041 single-format-standard customizer-styles-applied jetpack-reblog-enabled custom-colors"> <div id="page" class="hfeed site"> <a class="skip-link screen-reader-text" href="#content">Skip to content</a> <header id="masthead" class="site-header clearfix" role="banner"> <div class="site-branding"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/" class="site-logo-link" rel="home" itemprop="url"></a> <h1 class="site-title"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/" rel="home">croaking cassandra</a></h1> <h2 class="site-description">Economics, public policy, monetary policy, financial regulation, with a New Zealand perspective</h2> </div> <nav id="site-navigation" class="main-navigation nav-horizontal" role="navigation"> <button class="menu-toggle" aria-controls="primary-menu" aria-expanded="false">Menu</button> <div id="primary-menu" class="menu"><ul> <li ><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/">Home</a></li><li class="page_item page-item-1"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/about/">About Michael Reddell’s blog</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-66509"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/book-reviews/">Book reviews</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-58338"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/china-prc/">China (PRC)</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-71258"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/early-mpss-and-economic-projections/">MPSs & Economic Forecasts from early-mid 90s</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-8395"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/papers-and-speeches/">Papers and speeches</a></li> <li class="page_item page-item-70350"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-superannuation-scheme/">Reserve Bank of New Zealand Superannuation Scheme</a></li> </ul></div> </nav> </header> <div id="content" class="site-content clearfix"> <div class="breadcrumbs"> <a class="breadcrumbs-root" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/">Home</a><span class="breadcrumbs-current">Inquiring into banking</span> </div> <div class="primary content-area"> <main id="main" class="site-main" role="main"> <div class="article-wrapper"> <article id="post-72041" class="post-72041 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-bank-capital-requirements category-banking category-prudential-regulation"> <header class="entry-header"> <h1 class="entry-title">Inquiring into banking</h1> <div class="entry-meta"> <span class="posted-on"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-01T13:34:01+13:00">October 1, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-01T18:12:41+13:00">October 1, 2024</time></a></span> <span class="byline"><span class="author vcard"><a class="url fn n" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/author/mhreddell/">Michael Reddell</a></span></span> <span class="entry-categories"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/category/bank-capital-requirements/" rel="category tag">bank capital requirements</a>, <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/category/banking/" rel="category tag">Banking</a>, <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/category/prudential-regulation/" rel="category tag">Prudential regulation</a></span> </div> </header> <div class="entry-content"> <p>Hard on the heels of the Commerce Commission’s inquiry into some aspects of banking competition, Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee is also holding an inquiry. Submissions weren’t open for very long and have now closed, but the full terms of reference are <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/sc/make-a-submission/document/54SCFIN_SCF_FC430602-F4C3-4B04-957D-08DCB036CF74/inquiry-into-banking-competition">here</a>. It is a select committee inquiry, so it is hard to be optimistic anything very useful will come from it. Select committees are poorly resourced, even if they wanted to make a serious contribution, and the incentives seem to be almost entirely partisan political in nature. </p> <p>A few submissions have so far seen the light of day. Those I’ve seen are:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2024/09/rbnz-releases-banking-competition-select-committee-submission">One from the Reserve Bank</a>, together with a supporting <a href="https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/publications/bulletin/2024/how-risk-weights-affect-bank-lending"><em>Bulletin</em> article</a> on risk weights and bank lending,</li> <li><a href="https://www.nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-and-media/submissions/submission-inquiry-on-banking-competition/">One (brief) from the New Zealand Initiative</a>, [ and a <a href="https://www.nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-and-media/submissions/submission-inquiry-on-banking-competition/document/859">fuller version</a> I hadn’t stumbled on] and</li> <li><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/submission-from-andrew-body-to-the-fiandrew-body-submission-to-finance-and-expenditure-select-committee-on-its-banking-inquiry-25-sept-2024.pdf">One from Auckland investment banker Andrew Body,</a> a frequent contributor to debates on some of these issues.</li> </ul> <p>None is particularly long, although Body’s piece has several appendices of past contributions in this general area.</p> <p>The Reserve Bank’s contribution is mostly defensive in nature: if there are any issues, responsibility doesn’t rest with us or with our regulatory model. Which is, of course, pretty much what you would expect them to say, as an entrenched and powerful independent existing regulator, who no doubt believe that all the policy judgements they’ve made have been wise, in the best interests of New Zealanders etc. But just because it is them saying it doesn’t automatically mean they are wrong.</p> <p>And in some areas no doubt they are right. As they note, having four big banks isn’t at all unusual. And some scepticism of state-enabled “maverick disruptors”, especially in the form of an unimpressive modest retail bank, is likely to be well-warranted. They also fairly note that patterns of finance have changed over time, something particularly evident in rural lending (where Rabobank is now the second biggest lender) and in corporate lending (where even on the data they have access to – and big corporates can tap international markets directly – overseas banks other than the big 4 apparently now have 30 per cent of the market).</p> <p>And I (have always tended to) share their view that (approved regulatory) relative risk weights, used in calculating capital requirements matter a lot less than is often made out. In principle they should make no systematic difference at all since the aim of relative risk weights is more or less to reflect true differences in the underlying riskiness of different types of credit (eg a residential mortgage, with a 40 per cent LVR, is likely to be much much less risky, individually and as part of a portfolio, than an unsecured loan to a B-rated corporate). In practice, things aren’t that simple, including because the dividing lines between different types of lending and associated risk aren’t always clear or straightforward, and which side of a rather arbitrary line something falls can matter. And since no one – regulator or regulated – knows with any great certainty how (relatively) risky different types of loans are (mercifully, very bad crises don’t come along very often, and so data are scarce and open to contextual interpretation – regulators can get things wrong, and impose risk weights on particular types of lending that are quite at odds with the views of the lenders themselves. And any mapping for particular Reserve Bank imposed risk weights to either the pricing or availability of individual loan products is likely to be fuzzy and indirect at best.</p> <p>Most importantly, relative risk weights simply do not explain why bank balance sheets are chock-full of residential mortgages. Rather, the artificial scarcity of houses and land, imposed over decades by central and local government, has led to hugely expensive houses, which each incoming generation needs to finance. Bank balance sheets would be much smaller if regulatory reform successfully delivered enduring low prices of houses and urban land. </p> <p>All that said, one shouldn’t be too keen to come to the defence of the Reserve Bank as regulator. This is an agency with very limited specialist expertise at the top (see, notably, the Bank’s Board which now wields the policymaking power), has a culture of being aggressively dismissive, produces no serious research or analysis on financial regulation or stability (even though these functions now comprise the largest chunk of the Bank’s staff) and so on. What speeches there are lack any real depth or insight.</p> <p>As I noted at the start, the New Zealand Initiative’s submission is brief. There are, broadly speaking, two aspects to it. The first is about efficiency considerations – a dimension unfortunately now lost from the legislation</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png"><img data-attachment-id="72048" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/image-259/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png" data-orig-size="1116,516" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png?w=700" width="1024" height="473" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png?w=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-72048" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png?w=1024 1024w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png?w=768 768w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image.png 1116w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure> <p>Of course, any bureaucracy can produce a cost-benefit analysis of sorts of justify its own choices. I didn’t find the case for the 2019 decisions compelling, but a review now – especially if the reviewers were appointed by the RB or those sympathetic to it – isn’t really the answer (and under current legislation the Minister of Finance can’t direct the Bank in this area). My own view remains that (a) key people matter, and b) key policymaking decisions (as distinct from implementation on individual instruments and institutions) should be moved back to the Minister of Finance, who has both some real accountability (governments get tossed out, and question in Parliament routinely) and better incentives to balance the competing imperatives around any regulatory structure. It is very unusual to delegate major regulatory choices to an unelected agency (the more so, one with little demonstrated depth, expertise, and commanding little respect).</p> <p>The New Zealand Initiative doesn’t go that far. They propose instead </p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png"><img data-attachment-id="72051" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/image-260/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png" data-orig-size="1086,494" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png?w=700" width="1024" height="465" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png?w=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-72051" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png?w=1022 1022w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png?w=768 768w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-1.png 1086w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure> <p>I’ve written previously in favour of splitting around a NZPRA, which would have advantages for both those functions and for the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy and related functions. As they note, a suitably-qualified FPC might be a halfway house, although I’m not sure that the MPC – as staffed, and (not) scrutinised and held to account for the mistakes of recent years – is a great advert.</p> <p>(I’m less convinced of the merits of taking the Governor off the Board. The FMA is primarily an implementation agency without much of a public face. The Reserve Bank, or major policymaking committees, are a different matter…….and for what it is worth it would be quite anomalous internationally not to have the Governor on the central bank board.)</p> <p>The main prompt for doing this post was Andrew Body’s submission, which he was kind enough to send me. I don’t agree with everything in his submission – we’d disagree I think mainly on the risk weights issue (see above) – but the bulk of the submission captures a number of areas where the current Reserve Bank is ill-equipped for its job, and not doing that job well. His submission is an easy read. Here are a few extracts.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-2.png"><img data-attachment-id="72054" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/image-261/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-2.png" data-orig-size="936,881" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-2.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-2.png?w=700" width="936" height="881" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-2.png?w=936" alt="" class="wp-image-72054" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-2.png 936w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-2.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-2.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-2.png?w=768 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" /></a></figure> <p>It is often forgotten just how much of an impost was imposed on banks the local incorporation and outsourcing requirements.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png"><img data-attachment-id="72056" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/image-262/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png" data-orig-size="930,728" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=700" loading="lazy" width="930" height="728" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=930" alt="" class="wp-image-72056" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png 930w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=768 768w" sizes="(max-width: 930px) 100vw, 930px" /></a></figure> <p>What I’m less sure of is how much of this is idiosyncratic to New Zealand, and how much is a general tendency of regulators and the regulated. The stylised wisdom when I was at the Reserve Bank was that banks were typically under orders from Australia to be very reluctant to upset or call out the regulator (there or here). Of course, when your regulator – as Graeme Wheeler did here – takes offence at anodyne critical comments from a bank economist, and calls in the heavy artillery to get the economist silenced, it sends a message. Banks have a lot at stake, and the Reserve Bank has a lot of power, which can be wielded for good or ill.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-4.png"><img data-attachment-id="72059" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/image-263/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-4.png" data-orig-size="945,725" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-4.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-4.png?w=700" loading="lazy" width="945" height="725" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-4.png?w=945" alt="" class="wp-image-72059" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-4.png 945w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-4.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-4.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-4.png?w=768 768w" sizes="(max-width: 945px) 100vw, 945px" /></a></figure> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-5.png"><img data-attachment-id="72060" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/image-264/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-5.png" data-orig-size="935,344" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-5.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-5.png?w=700" loading="lazy" width="935" height="344" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-5.png?w=935" alt="" class="wp-image-72060" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-5.png 935w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-5.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-5.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-5.png?w=768 768w" sizes="(max-width: 935px) 100vw, 935px" /></a></figure> <p>Before turning to governance</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-6.png"><img data-attachment-id="72062" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/image-265/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-6.png" data-orig-size="970,897" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-6.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-6.png?w=700" loading="lazy" width="970" height="897" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-6.png?w=970" alt="" class="wp-image-72062" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-6.png 970w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-6.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-6.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-6.png?w=768 768w" sizes="(max-width: 970px) 100vw, 970px" /></a></figure> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-7.png"><img data-attachment-id="72063" data-permalink="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/image-266/#main" data-orig-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-7.png" data-orig-size="974,539" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="image" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-7.png?w=300" data-large-file="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-7.png?w=700" loading="lazy" width="974" height="539" src="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-7.png?w=974" alt="" class="wp-image-72063" srcset="https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-7.png 974w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-7.png?w=150 150w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-7.png?w=300 300w, https://croakingcassandra.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-7.png?w=768 768w" sizes="(max-width: 974px) 100vw, 974px" /></a></figure> <p>Much of that makes a lot of sense. But, of course, there is no sign that the Minister of Finance has any interest whatever in a better Reserve Bank, whether in its monetary policy or regulatory functions. She just reappointed the chair, has left Board vacancies unfilled, and included nothing about a reorientation in her Letter of Expectation. Instead, she seems to have been toying with arbitrary new taxes on banks.</p> <p>Standing back from all three submissions, a few things struck me. The first (and most important) is that neither the Reserve Bank in its defence or the critical submitters mentioned the APRA regulatory requirements and how they affect things in New Zealand (neither did the FEC’s terms of reference). That should be really quite surprising as most of the grumbling is about the four big Australian banks, all of which are part of Australian-based consolidated banking groups, regulated as such by APRA (eg capital requirements that apply to group exposures as a whole). There is no doubt that more onerous regulatory requirements can materially affect the New Zealand subsidiaries, but in any area in which the RBNZ’s requirements were less burdensome than APRA’s it might make or little or no difference here, as the group would still be constrained by group-wide regulation. I’ve never been quite sure how it all works out in practice – how banks do their pricing and risk allocation etc having regard to these distinct regulatory regimes – but it is surprising not to see it mentioned once. At an aggregate level, I’m inclined to the view that the Reserve Bank never made a compelling case for the extent of the 2019 increases in New Zealand capital requirements (and that the heavy focus on high capital is somewhat misplaced, relative to the much-harder-to-measure/observe changes in credit standards), but markedly lower requirements might well become non-binding.</p> <p>I’ve long been a bit puzzled as to why more non deposit-taking entities don’t lend directly into the New Zealand market (at least if, as we are often invited to believe, there are excess profits on offer here). I recall being heavily involved in some work almost 20 years ago now on possible alternative approaches to monetary policy implementation, and one thing we focused on a lot then was the possibility of entities lending mortgages (say) directly into New Zealand from abroad. Disintermediation was also in focus when the first LVR restrictions were put in place. But none of it ever seem to have come to much. I was exchanging notes with a banking lawyer recently and asking why, say, Macquarie – an aggressive new entrant to the Australian mortgage market – couldn’t just lending into New Zealand as “Cheap Mortgage Loans Limited” (so wouldn’t need to be a New Zealand bank), but the person I was engaging with noted that people who had considered such options were scared that the Reserve Bank would act to stop them (and apparently there are designation powers in the new deposit-takers legislation). You have to wonder why it would: no New Zealand depositors’ funds would be at risk, and new competition would be injected to the system. I note it mainly because it isn’t entirely compelling that everything sensible has been done by the Reserve Bank to reduce unnecessary barriers to entry. Better “Cheap Mortgage Loans Limited” than a juiced-up Kiwibank, in which taxpayers’ money is directly at stake.</p> <p>I have no expectation that the FEC inquiry will produce anything useful. It isn’t set up to. The submission time was short – who could commission serious or fresh analysis in that time? – and the committee has few resources, no specialist support, and its members don’t appear overly strongly qualified, except to pursue narrow political agendas (some of which might be sensible, but most won’t). And thus how equipped are they going to be to evaluate competing claims in the submissions they receive? It isn’t like a court case in which expert witnesses are grilled by counsel for both sides, and arguments, evidence, and implications tested. A proper workshop, with major submissions presented as papers with discussants and audience questions might have offered the prospect of shedding some serious light. But the political process is all too often interested more in heat than light.</p> <p>UPDATE: Martien Lubberink (VUW) draws my attention to his submission <a href="https://capitalissues.co/2024/09/15/balancing-innovation-stability-and-competition-in-new-zealands-banking-sector-a-policy-oriented-review/">here</a>. A one sentence summary might be that we should be at least somewhat grateful for what we have – a stable, predominantly foreign-owned, system – and wary of the siren calls to any sort of quick fixes to apparent problems. Thus far, it is hard to disagree (although I have a few specific areas in which I might reach different views than he does).</p> <div id="jp-post-flair" class="sharedaddy sd-like-enabled sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="sharedaddy sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="robots-nocontent sd-block sd-social sd-social-icon-text sd-sharing"><h3 class="sd-title">Share this:</h3><div class="sd-content"><ul><li class="share-twitter"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="sharing-twitter-72041" class="share-twitter sd-button share-icon" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?share=twitter" target="_blank" title="Click to share on Twitter" ><span>Twitter</span></a></li><li class="share-facebook"><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-shared="sharing-facebook-72041" class="share-facebook sd-button share-icon" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?share=facebook" target="_blank" title="Click to share on Facebook" ><span>Facebook</span></a></li><li class="share-end"></li></ul></div></div></div><div class='sharedaddy sd-block sd-like jetpack-likes-widget-wrapper jetpack-likes-widget-unloaded' id='like-post-wrapper-85004741-72041-67b65f96ecab2' data-src='//widgets.wp.com/likes/index.html?ver=20250219#blog_id=85004741&post_id=72041&origin=croakingcassandra.wordpress.com&obj_id=85004741-72041-67b65f96ecab2&domain=croakingcassandra.com' data-name='like-post-frame-85004741-72041-67b65f96ecab2' data-title='Like or Reblog'><div class='likes-widget-placeholder post-likes-widget-placeholder' style='height: 55px;'><span class='button'><span>Like</span></span> <span class='loading'>Loading...</span></div><span class='sd-text-color'></span><a class='sd-link-color'></a></div></div> </div> <footer class="entry-meta"> </footer> </article> </div> <nav role="navigation" id="nav-below" class="post-navigation"> <h1 class="screen-reader-text">Post navigation</h1> <div class="nav-previous"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/09/17/human-nature-doesnt-change/" rel="prev"><span class="meta-nav">←</span> Human nature doesn’t change</a></div> <div class="nav-next"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/07/public-policy-just-keeps-on-worsening/" rel="next">Public policy just keeps on worsening <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></div> </nav> <div id="comments" class="comments-area clearfix"> <div class="comments-wrapper"> <h2 class="comments-title"> 5 thoughts on “<span>Inquiring into banking</span>” </h2> <ol class="comment-list"> <li id="comment-82574" class="comment byuser comment-author-theblucap even thread-even depth-1 parent"> <article id="div-comment-82574" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/47693aae57472b77eabf1aa3269c7a690d2e6fe14d5fe60175e441c6e75e599a?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/47693aae57472b77eabf1aa3269c7a690d2e6fe14d5fe60175e441c6e75e599a?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/47693aae57472b77eabf1aa3269c7a690d2e6fe14d5fe60175e441c6e75e599a?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/47693aae57472b77eabf1aa3269c7a690d2e6fe14d5fe60175e441c6e75e599a?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/47693aae57472b77eabf1aa3269c7a690d2e6fe14d5fe60175e441c6e75e599a?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://1.gravatar.com/avatar/47693aae57472b77eabf1aa3269c7a690d2e6fe14d5fe60175e441c6e75e599a?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn"><a href="http://capitalissues.co" class="url" rel="ugc external nofollow">Cetier the First</a></b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/#comment-82574"><time datetime="2024-10-01T14:14:03+13:00">October 1, 2024 at 2:14 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>See my submission <a href="https://capitalissues.co/2024/09/15/balancing-innovation-stability-and-competition-in-new-zealands-banking-sector-a-policy-oriented-review/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener nofollow ugc"><strong>here</strong></a>. The New Zealand banking system appears to be overbanked—it’s smaller than Rabobank International, yet the presence of many small banks unfortunately hampers innovation.</p> <p>In leading economies, small banks are increasingly retreating, with market consolidation becoming the norm (as seen in the U.S., Spain, and the Netherlands). If Andrea Orcel’s plans come to fruition, Italy and Germany may soon have a joint bank.</p> <p>In this broader context, the support for small banks by ComCom and Willis seems somewhat misplaced. While well-intentioned, it may inadvertently hinder competition and progress. </p> <p>Meaningful change must be initiated from the top, necessitating consolidation among decision-makers. At present, the multiplicity of stakeholders (Willis, Orr, Bayly, Goldsmith, RBNZ, FMA, Treasury, etc,) leads to a diffusion of responsibility, and without sufficient expertise, this situation could present challenges for the future of our banking system. </p> <p id="comment-like-82574" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?like_comment=82574&_wpnonce=c2fc9d6090" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82574" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?replytocom=82574#respond" data-commentid="82574" data-postid="72041" data-belowelement="div-comment-82574" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to Cetier the First" aria-label="Reply to Cetier the First">Reply</a></div> </article> <ul class="children"> <li id="comment-82580" class="comment odd alt depth-2"> <article id="div-comment-82580" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">getgreatstuff</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/#comment-82580"><time datetime="2024-10-02T15:45:05+13:00">October 2, 2024 at 3:45 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>Every giant bank around the world is small in NZ. The largest banks in NZ are still the Australian banks because the RBNZ restricts NZ lending to the Banks NZ Balance sheet ie the NZ paid up capital and NZ depositors savings. The Australian banks bought up the local NZ banks together with $200 billion in depositors savings. The control of $200 billion in savers deposits allows Australian banks to dominate $200 billion in lending in NZ. No other overseas banks can effectively compete in NZ as they are not able to leverage overseas savings deposits. No overseas bank will drop $30 to $50 billion in paid up capital to even be able to compete in NZ. The cost of capital is too high.</p> <p id="comment-like-82580" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?like_comment=82580&_wpnonce=379190be76" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82580" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?replytocom=82580#respond" data-commentid="82580" data-postid="72041" data-belowelement="div-comment-82580" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to getgreatstuff" aria-label="Reply to getgreatstuff">Reply</a></div> </article> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="comment-82575" class="comment even thread-odd thread-alt depth-1 parent"> <article id="div-comment-82575" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">John Young</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/#comment-82575"><time datetime="2024-10-01T16:32:36+13:00">October 1, 2024 at 4:32 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>‘Financial Stability’ of the graveyard often gets (wrongly) attributed to Market Carney, but it was George Osborne the man who hired him who came up with it in 2011, and it has been much copied by Central Bankers, Regulators and politicians since:</p> <p><a href="https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/joint-committees/Draft-Financial-Services-Bill/ucjcdfsb151111ev14.pdf" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/joint-committees/Draft-Financial-Services-Bill/ucjcdfsb151111ev14.pdf</a></p> <p>From Page 3: </p> <p>“We know financial stability when we see it. We have been explicit in saying that, of course, we don’t want the financial stability of the graveyard”</p> <p>…and Osborne manages to weave the Arthur Conan Doyle Line (or Justice Potter Stewart if you’re American) of: ‘know ..when we see it’ line in too …. of only politicians and regulators had their eyes open to have seen it ( wasn’t there) in 2007 & 2008.</p> <p>A NZ-PRA makes absolute sense</p> <p id="comment-like-82575" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?like_comment=82575&_wpnonce=17c73e89e0" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82575" class="comment-like-feedback">Like</span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?replytocom=82575#respond" data-commentid="82575" data-postid="72041" data-belowelement="div-comment-82575" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to John Young" aria-label="Reply to John Young">Reply</a></div> </article> <ul class="children"> <li id="comment-82578" class="comment odd alt depth-2"> <article id="div-comment-82578" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/2a4423bf28f1feb929b75d2f20e7e3646ee0d458593229e54239fd6a458e38c5?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">John Young</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/#comment-82578"><time datetime="2024-10-02T10:50:52+13:00">October 2, 2024 at 10:50 am</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>Meant to add to the last sentence – a separate ‘NZ-PRA makes absolute sense’…. as the costs of financial instability (bank failure) ultimately fall to the taxpayer then the government should have a greater say in those prudential settings, especially if those settings have distributional impacts.</p> <p id="comment-like-82578" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?like_comment=82578&_wpnonce=0029509ee6" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82578" class="comment-like-feedback">Liked by <a href="#" class="view-likers" data-like-count="1">1 person</a></span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?replytocom=82578#respond" data-commentid="82578" data-postid="72041" data-belowelement="div-comment-82578" data-respondelement="respond" data-replyto="Reply to John Young" aria-label="Reply to John Young">Reply</a></div> </article> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="comment-82579" class="comment even thread-even depth-1"> <article id="div-comment-82579" class="comment-body"> <footer class="comment-meta"> <div class="comment-author vcard"> <img alt='' src='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G' srcset='https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=60&d=identicon&r=G 1x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=90&d=identicon&r=G 1.5x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=120&d=identicon&r=G 2x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=180&d=identicon&r=G 3x, https://2.gravatar.com/avatar/26762cc4c1eaf23e34a35a6bbd9f9620a6ef822f2d49ea63795295239b8a402f?s=240&d=identicon&r=G 4x' class='avatar avatar-60' height='60' width='60' loading='lazy' decoding='async' /> <b class="fn">getgreatstuff</b> <span class="says">says:</span> </div> <div class="comment-metadata"> <a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/#comment-82579"><time datetime="2024-10-02T15:05:22+13:00">October 2, 2024 at 3:05 pm</time></a> </div> </footer> <div class="comment-content"> <p>Low documentation loans where a bank places less scrutiny on what the income sources are as long as the equity can cover the loan is still available easily in Australia for a higher interest costs say an additional 1% on retail rates. Low documentation loans pretty much disappeared from New Zealand banks since the RBNZ has clamped down hard on income verification by the banks. </p> <p>This effect means that proof of income from a wage and salary makes a loan much more easily available than a business person whose income can be varied from one year to the next especially start ups that have no historical income to measure.</p> <p id="comment-like-82579" data-liked=comment-not-liked class="comment-likes comment-not-liked"><a href="https://croakingcassandra.com/2024/10/01/inquiring-into-banking/?like_comment=82579&_wpnonce=e4fd265f47" class="comment-like-link needs-login" rel="nofollow" data-blog="85004741"><span>Like</span></a><span id="comment-like-count-82579" class="comment-like-feedback">Liked by <a href="#" class="view-likers" data-like-count="1">1 person</a></span></p> </div> <div class="reply"><a rel="nofollow" class="comment-reply-link" 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