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Mysteel：江苏省建筑钢材2021上半年市场回顾及下半年展望-我的钢铁网
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src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/07/02/115751.png" style="height: 218px; width: 500px" /></strong></p> <p>由图可以发现今年5月份普<a href="https://gc.mysteel.com/" target="_blank">钢价</a>格指数已超过08年的高点，不过持续时间很短，随着国内宏观调控，价格迅速出现近千元的下跌。虽然下跌之后风险得以大幅释放，不过由图显示依然处于近几年的历史高位。江苏省内的螺纹价格一度超过6000元/吨，截至7月1日，价格回落至4860元/吨，跌幅超过千元。</p> <p><strong>二、产能利用率同比明显攀升 不过边际出现减弱</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center"><strong><img alt="" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/07/02/115822.png" style="height: 251px; width: 500px" /></strong></p> <p>由图可以发现，2021年上半年国内<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>建筑钢材</a>钢厂<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>产能利用率同比明显增加。不过近期却出现同比减弱的情况。1-5月份，全国螺纹钢平均周产量347.98万吨，（共计7655.65万吨）。同比去年螺纹钢平均周产量314.81万吨，（共计6925.91万吨）。高了近10.5%。不过螺纹产量边际同比出现减弱，截至7月1日，全国螺纹产量为352.59万吨，同比降48.16万吨，环比降24.82万吨。江苏螺纹产能利用率也下降了近15个百分点。大幅下跌的原因在于螺纹钢厂利润一度亏损，钢厂有减产螺纹，铁水转移到线盘或热卷的驱动力。由图可以发现江苏省内钢厂调配产能的能力明显优于全国水平。</p> <p align="left"></p> <p><strong>三、需求下滑 库存超预期累积</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center"><strong><img alt="" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/07/02/115901.png" style="height: 249px; width: 500px" /></strong></p> <p>进入五月以后，由于需求出现超预期回落，虽然产能利用率同比出现明显下滑，但是库存也出现同比上升的态势，表现在库销比上就更加明显。江苏省内的库存，无论钢厂端还是市场端压力都不容小觑。截至6月25日，全国钢厂螺纹库存352.07万吨，较2019年同期上涨了53.57%，超过了去年同期水平。江苏省内建材钢厂库存107.14万吨，较2019年同期上涨了58.47%，也超过了去年同期。市场库存88.96万吨，年同比上升10.64万吨，比2019年高出42.72万吨。</p> <p><strong>四、成材利润大幅下滑成本支撑面临考验</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center"><strong><img alt="" src="//img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2021/07/02/115937.png" style="height: 301px; width: 500px" /></strong></p> <p>受成材端窗口指导、表需下滑，库存超预期累积以及原料端基本面强劲的上下挤压。如图所示，螺纹钢厂利润出现大幅收缩，甚至部分钢厂如NG等表示螺纹钢生产已经出现近100元/吨的亏损。钢厂也开始出现较大面积的计划检修减产行为。在当前成本支撑面临考验。短期价格走势市场分歧较大，呈现震荡运行。</p> <p align="left"><strong>五、省内经济指标表现稳步增长</strong></p> <p>1—5月，全省规模以上工业增加值同比增长23.8%，两年平均增速10.9%，比2019年同期高出5.7个百分点。全省固定资产投资同比增长12.8%，两年平均增长0.1%。全社会消费品零售总额同比增长31.2%，两年平均增长7.3%，好于2019年同期（6.4%）。线上汽车类销售额同比增长41.9%，家用电器和音像器材类增长33%。</p> <p align="left"><strong>下半年展望：</strong></p> <p>当前市场经过窗口指导，成材利润大幅压缩，成材供需表现差，原料供需表现紧，成材压原料还是原料撑成材将决定后期方向。对于后期走势，笔者认为有以下三点要素需要关注1、需求下滑，是否存在宏观调控；2、宏观收紧预期不断加剧；3、市场预期的变化节奏。</p> <p>由于钢材价格的暴涨，对下游企业已造成了很重的负担。针对钢价大幅上涨对下游的影响，上海钢联百年建筑网对全国460家施工单位进行了调研。其中56%的施工单位表示钢材价格连续大幅度上涨对目前的施工进度已有不同程度的影响。除对建筑企业影响较大外，钢价大幅上涨也对制造业有很大影响，造船、机械和家电等行业成本急剧攀升，很多处于亏损境地，出现大量停止接单的情况。虽然工业企业利润总体复苏较快，但是出现利润分配严重不平衡的问题，使得经济复苏不稳定，因此笔者认为对于国家宏观调控来讲，是有合理调整需求释放速度的动机。而近期表需大幅下滑，也在一定程度上印证了这一点。</p> <p>此外宏观层面上，5月美国CPI同比增速高达5%，这是自2008年8月以来最大涨幅，大超市场预期。5月中国PPI同比上涨9.0%，是13年来最高水平。1-5月同比平均上涨4.4%，环比上涨1.6。中国CPI同比上涨1.3%。微观层面上，618促销期间，白色家电如冰箱、冷柜、洗衣机、空调四大品类的线上市场零售额同比增幅分别达到23.6%、3.6%、17.8%和13.7%。但销售量却出现下降，其中线上空调零售量679万台，规模同比下降3.5%；线上冰箱零售量331万台，同比下滑6.6%；线上冷柜零售量47.3万台，同比下降5.4%；线上洗衣机零售量280万台，同比下滑1.2%。此外黑色家电及小家电方面也是出现了销量的下滑。反映出当前虽物价上涨，但下游需求已渐显颓势。</p> <p>从目前期现升贴水来讲，市场仍是出于偏乐观的状态。笔者认为判断行情可立足当前基本面，对未来市场变化作合理性推演，同时在做决策的过程中把握好看错成本（比如对后市看跌，实际会涨，在淡季大幅累库中，涨幅也会相对有限，风险可控）。目前市场既有稳供给稳价格要求，又有限产的吹风。随着经济的复苏，要实现各项目标，综合近期的表现。合理的逻辑在于已开始控制需求的释放节奏。随着成材消费下滑，库存超预期累积。极有可能演化为国内需求开始放缓，进而演化成钢厂限产未影响成材端供给，反给原料短造成压力的格局。原料端下半年预计随着<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-4262,7073-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁水产量</a>放缓，需求减弱，叠加供给缓和，造成价格重心下移的情况。在此逻辑下的市场预期转换，可能会影响市场涨跌节奏。</p> <p><strong>操作建议：1、节奏上可以紧盯钢厂利润和原料表现，如若钢厂利润打掉，不建议过分看空；2、日常保持合理库存，静待市场给予机会。虽经过大幅回落，绝对价格仍处高位，需警惕原料端成本塌陷的共振下跌。</strong></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：方正 021-26093722 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