多家海外机构预测2025年铁矿石价格或将继续下行-我的钢铁网

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<p>展望2025年，铁矿石价格将面临进一步的下行压力，对此多家海外机构陆续发布了对于明年的市场预测。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>整理11家海外机构的预测分析，其中包括投行、政府部门及金融机构，<span style="color: #c00000;"><strong>大多认为2025年铁矿石的年均价格预计将低于100美元/吨，对比2024年价格重心或进一步下移。其中，最为乐观的年均价格预测超过105美元/吨，最为悲观的年均价格预测约为80美金/吨，</strong></span>详细情况如下：</p> <table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 559px;" border="0" width="553" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><colgroup><col style="width: 99.75pt;" width="133" /> <col style="width: 133.50pt;" width="178" /> <col style="width: 119.25pt;" width="159" /> <col style="width: 62.25pt;" width="83" /></colgroup> <tbody> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="height: 14.25pt; width: 131.233px; color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; background: #023985; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="19">机构名称</td> <td style="width: 175.25px; color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; border-style: solid solid none; border-color: #000000 #000000 currentcolor; background: #023985; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2025年均价(美元/吨）</td> <td style="width: 156.15px; color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; border-style: solid solid none; border-color: #000000 #000000 currentcolor; background: #023985; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">长期预测(美元/吨）</td> <td style="width: 83.0667px; color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; background: #023985; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-style: normal; border: medium; white-space: nowrap;">汇总时间</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 27.00pt;"> <td style="height: 27pt; width: 131.3px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="36">澳新银行</td> <td style="width: 175.333px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">80（最低值）</td> <td style="width: 156.2px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">76</td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.10 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 40.50pt;"> <td style="height: 40.5pt; width: 131.317px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="54">高盛</td> <td style="width: 175.35px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">95 </td> <td style="width: 156.217px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">90（2026年）</td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.11</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 40.50pt;"> <td style="height: 40.5pt; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap; width: 131.317px;" height="54">摩根大通</td> <td style="width: 175.367px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">100</td> <td style="width: 156.233px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">80</td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.12</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 40.50pt;"> <td style="height: 40.5pt; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap; width: 131.317px;" height="54">澳洲资源部</td> <td style="width: 175.367px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">82（2024-25财年）</td> <td style="width: 156.233px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">78（2025-26财年）</td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.12</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 28.50pt;"> <td style="height: 28.5pt; width: 131.317px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="38">西太平洋银行</td> <td style="width: 175.367px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">105-110</td> <td style="width: 156.233px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">-</td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.12 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 40.50pt;"> <td style="height: 40.5pt; width: 131.317px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="54">澳大利亚国民银行</td> <td style="width: 175.367px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">87（最低值）</td> <td style="width: 156.233px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;"> <p>83（2026年Q1)</p> <p>82（2026年Q2)</p> </td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.12 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 14.25pt;"> <td style="height: 14.25pt; width: 131.317px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="19">澳大利亚联邦银行</td> <td style="width: 175.367px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">92（2024-25财年）</td> <td style="width: 156.233px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">84（2025-26财年）</td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.12 </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 27.00pt;"> <td style="height: 27pt; width: 131.317px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="36">惠誉评级</td> <td style="width: 175.367px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">90 </td> <td style="width: 156.233px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">85（2026年）</td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.12</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 28.50pt;"> <td style="height: 28.5pt; width: 131.317px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="38">ING</td> <td style="width: 175.367px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">95</td> <td style="width: 156.233px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">-</td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.12</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 28.50pt;"> <td style="height: 28.5pt; width: 131.317px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="38">麦格里</td> <td style="width: 175.367px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">96</td> <td style="width: 156.233px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;"> <p>80（2026年)</p> <p>80（2027年)</p> <p>75（2028年)</p> </td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.12</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 28.50pt;"> <td style="height: 28.5pt; width: 131.317px; color: #000000; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;" height="38">瑞银</td> <td style="width: 175.367px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">100 </td> <td style="width: 156.233px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">95（2026年）</td> <td style="width: 83.0833px; border: 0.5pt solid #000000; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle; padding-top: 1px; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; color: #000000; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; white-space: nowrap;">2024.12</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span style="color: #7b7b7b;"><em>信息来源：公开资料整理，Mysteel</em></span></p> <p style="margin: 0pt 0pt 7.8pt;"><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">具体来看，对于2025年铁矿石价格的下行因素及核心观点如下：</span></strong></p> <ul> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">澳新银行（ANZ）</span></strong>预计2025年铁矿石价格预计将降至80美元/吨，2026年进一步下降至76美元/吨。主要市场面对铁矿石的需求不确定，尤其是中国经济的疲软和钢铁行业的挑战。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">高盛（Goldman Sachs）：</span></strong>预计2025年铁矿石平均价格为每吨95美元，2026年将进一步下降至每吨90美元。铁矿石价格下行的原因包括中国港口库存增加、人民币贬值以及钢铁需求疲软，特别是出口导向型制造业需求下降。高盛预计中国房地产和基建投资将大幅下降，同时美国的关税政策将抑制钢铁出口需求，并加大人民币压力。此外，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-5735,3970-------------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石供应</a>增加，澳大利亚和几内亚的新供应将进入市场，尽管印度出口下降和中国国内供应减少，市场仍将维持过剩。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">摩根大通（J.P.Morgan）：</span></strong>预计2025年铁矿石均价在每吨100美元，主要由于中国钢铁需求的相对稳定以及季节性因素，叠加中国的宏观刺激政策影响；但长期来看价格预计将回落至每吨80美元，这可能受美国对进口钢铁或铁矿石关税的调整以及来自主要矿石供应商如淡水河谷和On-slow铁矿矿区的增量供应影响，铁矿基本面承压。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">澳洲资源部（Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources）：</span></strong>据官网数据显示预计2025年铁矿均价预计将降至每吨80美元，2026年为每吨78美元。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">西太平洋银行（Westpac）：</span></strong>铁矿石价格预计将在2025年保持在每吨105至110美元之间，并可能在全年内逐渐下滑至每吨90美元及以下。随着中国港口库存激增，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/haiyun/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>海运</a>贸易盈余扩大，铁矿石价格有可能受到压制。高成本生产商如中国可能会进一步减少产量。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">澳大利亚国民银行（NAB）</span></strong>预计中国房地产行业的低迷仍将持续，且贸易壁垒将开始限制钢铁出口，预计2025年铁矿石价格将进一步下跌，跌至每吨87美元，并在2026年一季度降至每吨83美元。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">澳大利亚联邦银行（CBA）</span></strong>预计2025财年铁矿石均价在每吨92美元，2026财年降至将达到每吨84美元，这主要是由于铁矿石供应强劲，而钢铁需求疲弱。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">惠普评级（Fitch Solutions）：</span></strong>预计2025年和2026年铁矿均价将分别降至90美元和85美元，反映市场铁矿石供应过剩的局面。从长期来看，预计铁矿石价格或将在2033年降至每吨78美元，表明需求和供应失衡的持续影响。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">荷兰国际集团（ING）：</span></strong>预测2025年铁矿石价格将继续承压，均价为95美元/吨。这些预期是由于钢铁需求低迷、供应充足以及港口库存高企。中国房地产市场的疲软是主要风险因素，且中国的经济刺激措施尚未显著推动钢材需求回升。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">麦格理（Macquarie）</span></strong>预测2025年铁矿石均价在每吨96美元。这一预测是由多种因素共同推动的，包括中国需求的减少和全球市场铁矿石供应的增加，尤其是中国港库的增加。因此，<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----0311-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铁矿石市场</a>预计将面临进一步下行压力，高成本矿山可能会减产。</li> <li><strong><span style="font-weight: bold;">瑞银（UBS）：</span></strong>由于房地产行业仍面临库存过剩和价格下跌的问题，而地方政府债务影响基础设施项目，钢铁需求不太可能出现大幅激增,到2025年，铁矿石市场将出现适度的供应过剩，价格将稳定在每吨100美元左右。</li> </ul>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：张雨桐 021-26098040 </br> 资讯监督：杨琪 021-26093203 </br> 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-6942-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.mysteel.com/article/p-6942-------------1.html" external 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