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Mysteel周报：船舶原材料价格（4.8-4.12）-我的钢铁网
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content="核心观点：12日国内钢材指数（Myspic）综合指数报收138.79点，周环比上涨2.08%。供应方面，本周五大钢材品种供应856.2万吨，周环比降9.01万吨，降幅为1%。本期钢材产量有所减少，因高" /> <link rel="canonical" href="//m.mysteel.com/a/24041509/1456A99FB289F3F7_abc.html"> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/libs/sui/sui.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/wsyCss.css?v=20221027" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/wsyCss20180930.css?v=17" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/permissions.css?v=11" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/v2/css/common.css?v=20221212"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/bxCss.css?v=201705190952"> <link rel="stylesheet" href="//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/addStyle.css?v=201704180942"> <link rel="stylesheet" href='//a.mysteelcdn.com/wap/ydz/css/add.css?v=20181027'> <link rel="stylesheet" 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<p><strong>核心观点：</strong>12日国内钢材指数（Myspic）综合指数报收138.79点，周环比上涨2.08%。供应方面，本周五大钢材品种供应856.2万吨，周环比降9.01万吨，降幅为1%。本期钢材产量有所减少，因高炉轧线检修导致产量下降；本周五大钢材总库存2133.17万吨，周环比降108.02万吨，降幅为4.8%。库存方面，本周五大品种总库存继续下降，且结构上表现一致：厂库与社库均开始去库，降幅分别为7.3%和3.8%。消费方面，本周五大品种周消费量为964.22万吨，降幅为0.99%；其中建材消费环比增2.9%，板材消费环比降2.1%。本周五大品种中建材与板材消费出现一定的分化，建材消费增，板材消费降，这主要由于热卷供应持续保持高位，但需求偏弱，去库速率偏缓。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜</a>市方面：宏观方面，上海期货交易所发布《关于在黄金和铜期货品种实施交易限额的通知》，对黄金、铜期货品种实施交易限额。非期货公司会员、客户在黄金期货品种日内开仓交易最大数量为2800手，铜期货品种日内开仓交易最大数量为2000手。美国3月CPI数据再超预期，至此进入今年以来通胀已经连续三个月超预期;数据显示，美国3月CPI同比增3.5%，预期3.4%，前值3.2%;环比增0.4%，预期0.3%，持平前值。美国3月核心CPI同比增3.8%，预期3.7%持平前值;核心CPI环比增0.4%，预期0.3%，持平前值，1月份也为0.4%。华尔街分析师普遍认为，美联储6月降息几无可能，甚至需要开始考虑加息的可能性。基本面方面，上周下游订单表现不理想，在高<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0201-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铜价</a>下部分订单开始出现执行乏力的情况，尤其是部分高价订单向下传导难度较大，导致订单开始出现阶段的减弱，这一情况还需要一定的时间传导，个别地区的边际需求开始出现明显的下滑。<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝</a>市方面：上周<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0202-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>铝价</a>强势上涨，市场铝锭成交由强转弱。周初铝价大幅冲高上破两万关口，现货市场表现维持稳定，假期累库叠加高铝价对交投有所抑制，但临近交割持货商挺价，升贴水趋稳，报价在均价附近，需求有所承压，接货方面对高价按需采购为主，相对低价有部分补入。周中铝价小幅回调震荡反弹，市场交投转淡。高铝价以及基差走强的预期下，市场持货商初始挺价惜售，报价在20元/吨附近，后转为积极出货下调报价至均价附近，流通货源由紧转松。</p> <p><strong>一、原材料品种价格监测</strong></p> <p>截止2024年4月12日，各原材料当日即时价格以及价格周环比情况如下：</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 292.717px;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/04/15/59aa0642408b41bfa8ccd51c1c7578cb.png" width="600" height="292" /></p> <p><strong>二、船舶行业原材料基本面分析——钢材篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要①——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010102-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>中厚板</a>：上周中板价格震荡上涨,预计本周价格将震荡上涨</strong></p> <p>上周全国中厚板市场价格震荡上涨，整体成交情况表现一般。全国中板库存总量为292.54吨，较上周下降6.74万吨，其中华北区域减量最多。上周开工率84.62%，周环比持平；钢厂周实际产量155.94万吨，周环比增加0.77万吨；钢厂产能利用率95.9%，周环比上升0.48%；钢厂库存76.25万吨，周环比增加1.5万吨。从供应端来看，中板品种利润尚可，钢厂维持正常生产，产量高位盘整运行。从需求端来看，黑色系期货反弹带动市场情绪好转，贸易商补库意愿增强，市场投机需求活跃，终端下游按需拿货，市场整体成交尚可。总体来看，原料价格止跌反弹，市场情绪有所缓解，但终端需求释放有限，需继续关注反弹节奏，预计本周国内中厚板行情或将稳中趋强运行。</p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要②</strong><strong>——</strong><strong><a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010107-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>型钢</a>：上周价格稳中趋强运行，预计本周全国型钢市场价格将呈现震荡攀升的走势</strong></p> <p><strong>上周价格稳中趋强运行，</strong>200*200<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----01010705-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>H型钢</a>全国均价3665元/吨，周环比上涨23元/吨；588*300H型钢3799元/吨，周环比上涨18元/吨；5＃角钢3929元/吨，周环比上涨18元/吨；16＃槽钢为3940元/吨，周环比上涨21元/吨，25＃工字钢为3962元/吨，周环比上涨23元/吨。</p> <p><strong>供应方面，</strong>上周全国工角槽产量45.36万吨，周环比增加4.13万吨；在H型钢生产企业中，钢厂周实际产量30.39万吨，周环比增长8.46%。上周钢厂库存不在累库增长，但库存总量仍处高位，调坯轧钢厂生产意愿降低，后期将仍是以降低库存总量为主，库存方面或将小幅降低。</p> <p><strong>需求方面，</strong>近期市场终端需求单量陆续抛出，消耗能力有所提升，与目前钢厂控制产量的供给基本持平，但仍然无法迎合市场降库需求，基础设施建设强度有所恢复，带动下游需求启动，短期内对市场目前供大于求的局面很难达到平衡状态。</p> <p><strong>综合来看，</strong>目前市场经过一周的反弹，或将延续震荡攀升走势，现货市场成交有所好转，钢厂在降低生产的情况下已能与市场终端需求呈现局部持平状态，库存总量相比较上周无明显增长，但供大于求的局面尚未得到明显改观，对价格无法形成良好的止跌效果。同时下游贸易商多采取降库低价出货形式，尽量回笼资金，对后期市场信心仍持有观望态势。市场需求有所增长的带动下，成交好转，市场价格也在不断修复，虽对整体局面无法实现突破性的翻转，但依然带动了市场情绪，而提振后的市场，也逐渐恢复了一定的信心。综合来看，预计本周全国型钢市场价格将呈现震荡攀升的走势。</p> <p><strong>三、船舶行业原材料基本面分析——有色篇</strong></p> <p><strong>主要内容摘要</strong><strong>③</strong><strong>——铜：</strong></p> <p>宏观方面，上海期货交易所发布《关于在黄金和铜期货品种实施交易限额的通知》，对黄金、铜期货品种实施交易限额。非期货公司会员、客户在黄金期货品种日内开仓交易最大数量为2800手，铜期货品种日内开仓交易最大数量为2000手。美国3月CPI数据再超预期，至此进入今年以来通胀已经连续三个月超预期;数据显示，美国3月CPI同比增3.5%，预期3.4%，前值3.2%;环比增0.4%，预期0.3%，持平前值。美国3月核心CPI同比增3.8%，预期3.7%持平前值;核心CPI环比增0.4%，预期0.3%，持平前值，1月份也为0.4%。华尔街分析师普遍认为，美联储6月降息几无可能，甚至需要开始考虑加息的可能性。基本面方面，上周下游订单表现不理想，在高铜价下部分订单开始出现执行乏力的情况，尤其是部分高价订单向下传导难度较大，导致订单开始出现阶段的减弱，这一情况还需要一定的时间传导，个别地区的边际需求开始出现明显的下滑。</p> <p><strong>四、船舶行业动态信息一览</strong></p> <p><strong>1</strong><strong>、海关总署：3月中国出口船舶399艘</strong></p> <p>海关总署2024年4月12日数据显示，2024年3月中国出口船舶399艘；1-3月累计出口1328艘，累计同比增长31.6%。</p> <p><strong>2</strong><strong>、波罗的海干散货运价指数连续第14个交易日下滑</strong></p> <p>波罗的海干散货运价指数周二连续第14个交易日下滑，因较大型船运费下降。波罗的海干散货运价指数下跌24点或1.5%，至1570点，为两个月以来最低水平。海岬型船运价指数下跌45点或2.1%，至逾两个月以来最低的2153点。海岬型船日均获利下跌372美元，至17854美元。巴拿马型船运价指数下跌34点或约2%，至1633点。巴拿马型船日均获利下跌302美元，至14699美元。超灵便型散货船运价指数上升1点至1259点。</p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：刘儒 021-26096617 </br> 资讯监督：胡赛男 021-26093781 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 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